Today, Explained - RFK Jr.'s new food pyramid

Episode Date: January 16, 2026

Let them eat steak. This episode was produced by Miles Bryan, edited by Jolie Myers, fact checked by Andrea López-Cruzado, engineered by Patrick Boyd and David Tatasciore, and hosted by Noel King. The revised Food Pyramid from the Department of Health and Human Services. Photo by Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. New Vox members get $20 off their membership right now. Transcript at ⁠vox.com/today-explained-podcast.⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

RFKJR, HHS Secretary recently announced new federal dietary guidelines declaring war. Today, our government declares war on added sugar. Also ending war. We are ending the war on saturated fats. In his tenure as head of HHS, RFK has ended the war on protein and declared war on ultra-processed foods and on the old food pyramid. You can see the food pyramid here. It's upside down, a lot of you will say. But it was actually upside down before, and we just righted it. The Trump administration has pushed companies to eliminate food dyes,

and in the first bill signing of the new year, says schools can now serve whole milk. Whole milk, and it's whole with a W for those of you that have a problem. Coming up on today, explained the push from the top to revamp the American diet. Support for this show comes from Odu. Running a business is hard enough. off, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odu. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier, CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part,

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I'm Noel King with Jane Black. She's a food journalist and co-author of the consumed newsletter. Jane, welcome back to the show. So the government unveiled a brand new food pyramid last week. What's in it? Well, so there was a lot of hype about this. And, you know, their big message was we are now focusing on whole nutrient dense foods. As Secretary of Health and Human Services, my message is clear.

Eat real food. In fact, the dietary guidelines have actually always recommended whole foods. The language wasn't as clear as it is now. And I think that change in language is good. And I think people are really excited about it. The new food pyramid is wacky because if you can picture the old food. food pyramid. Remember, grains were at the bottom. That's the biggest. Yeah. And then at the top was saturated fats, you know, eggs, butter, meat, that kind of thing. And basically what they've done

is they flipped the entire thing upside down. We are ending the war on saturated fats. So now at the top you have cheese and eggs and steak and whole milk and yes, also fruits and vegetables. And at the bottom and the tiny point of the pyramid are whole grains. There's one thing that I personally have been obsessed with. So I'm looking at it right now. I have it up in front of me. Okay, so there's a turkey or a chicken. There's a steak. There's a salmon steak. Looks good, looks good. There's what appears to be a plastic container of ground beef. Are you seeing what I'm seeing? There is a plastic container of ground beef. You should eat your burgers. That feels wrong. With cheese on top. That feels wrong to me. Tell me what I'm missing because this is the part.

I hear you on protein, but also we've all had lean meat drummed into our heads that something about the plastic container of ground beef is really sending me. What is the message it is sending me as it sends me? So the reason you're confused is because there are a lot of conflicting messages here. One of the reasons people really hate nutrition science is because it's always changing, right? It's like, you can drink red wine. No, you can't drink red wine. And everybody just turns off. The only thing that anyone has been consistently saying to us for nearly 50 years is don't eat too much saturated fat. Yeah. Let me tell you right off the bat, these days fat is not where it's at. Saturated fat is unhealthy. It raises cholesterol levels in your body and increases your risk of heart disease.

Now, the pyramid seems to be saying something completely different. And what's really interesting is that in the recommendations, if you read into them, it says the exact same thing it's always said, which is that 10% of your diet should come from saturated fats. more. At the same time, they're saying, yeah, go ahead and eat your cheeseburgers, but they're not kind of reconciling how those two things happen at the same time. When asked, what has RFK said about that? Because it is the most obvious point here. And I wonder, I mean, I think RFK takes this stuff seriously. How is he trying to square it? They really haven't tried to square it. Huh?

So the backstory here is that four months, there was this drumbeat that they were. were going to end this limit on saturated fats because they think that meat and eggs and dairy are good for us. At the last minute, they just took that back. And from off the record conversations, it seems that they just didn't want to have that kind of controversy. And they were afraid that if they changed the limit on saturated fat, that would be the big story coming out of the guidelines. That instead of us talking about Whole Foods or us talking about increasing the amount protein we should eat, everybody would be talking about the change in saturated fats. So they decided to just leave it, recommend what they wanted to recommend, and now we're in a bit

of a muddle. All right, so this is very interesting. Then, as you say, we have kind of a flippage here. And so what ends up down at the bottom? What are the foods that now get short shrift? Grains. Grains. So, you know, say, kiss your favorite pasta goodbye.

When you're here. Before in the Obama administration, we didn't have a pyramid. We had something called My Plate, and it looked like a plate, and it showed you how much of your plate was supposed to be fruits and vegetables, meat, and grains. In that iteration, half were supposed to be whole grains. Now, it's just whole grains, no refined carbohydrates, and even fewer of them than before. So that's the first thing. The second thing is sugar. And today, our government declares war on added sugar.

I mean, I don't think anybody disagrees that we all eat too much sugar, but they have cut back the limit of sugar that people should be eating and make no mistake, none of us were meeting that when it was higher. And in addition, they have said that children under 10 should have no added sugars at all. So no Halloween, no birthday parties, no Christmas cookies, nothing. No chance. I mean, I'd love to see how that's going to go. Yeah. Good luck, parents. So the Trump administration, very interestingly, from the jump, has expressed priorities on food in a way that strikes me as different from previous administrations just because there's been so much focus on them.

Like, I remember Trump saying Coke needed to change its recipe, I think to go back to real sugar from corn syrup. Truth Social. I have been speaking to at Coca-Cola about using real cane. sugar in Coke in the United States, and they have agreed to do so. I'd like to thank all of those in authority at Coca-Cola. This will be a very good move by them. You'll see, it's just better. The FDA was banning a type of red dye early on. So does this set of recommendations play into what else we've seen from the administration so far? I think that what we can say about this is that it makes official the war on ultra-process foods.

They're not using the word ultra-processed. They're using the word highly processed. That is, for technical reasons, because they don't have an exact definition of ultra-processed foods, but basically you get what they mean. They mean don't eat Freetos, don't eat Pop-Tarts, don't eat things that have these unpronounceable ingredients, and they are saying it loud and clear.

And that's new. And I think that, frankly, that's a win for Maha and I think that's a win for Kennedy. The other thing that they have talked a lot about, just as strongly as ultra-processed foods, I think, is working with unbiased science. I mean, one of their favorite terms is gold standard science. And they want randomized controlled trials. And they don't want scientists that are bought off by industry. And what's really interesting about that is that in this report, they go to great trouble. to show that they are rejecting some 50% of the recommendations that were made by an unbiased

group of scientists, not influenced by industry. And then when you look at the references they have for the science saying, you should eat more meat, you should eat more dairy, low and behold, those studies are funded by people like the National Cattlemen's Association or the National Dairy Council or the Texas Beef Council. So it's a very very very. So it's a very very It's very interesting. There's good, there's bad, but I wouldn't say that they are delivering on all the promises that they have been talking about. All right. So my understanding has always been these guidelines are guidelines. Nobody's going to tell me how to eat. I am an American. What do they actually change then? The guidelines have always been an internal document. They have been guidelines that direct what schools can put on the menu at school lunch and what kinds of foods are served. in military canteens. So they will affect those. And I think there are a lot of questions about

how people are going to do that. I mean, you and I have talked about school lunch before. It's not like they have a giant budget. So now, how are they going to afford a lot more meat and put that on the plate? So there will be some interesting things to watch as these are rolled out. Jane, you've been writing about science and politics and food for a long time. And you will know, because we've talked about it, that American president's spouses, administrations have been trying to get us to improve our diets for years. There was Michelle Obama and the vegetable garden, and this goes back a long way. Do you think RFK Jr. is accomplishing more than those who came before him or has the potential to? Well, I think that he has really

gotten people's attention. He has gotten people's attention on the right and he has gotten people's attention on the left. And that is remarkable because certainly in the past, the language or the tone of whatever they were saying sort of was received by one side or the other more readily. So that's one thing. So I think that's important. And I think a mass movement and a mass caring about food is essential. I think that he will get more attention on things that people want to do. So if you put steak and hamburgers and cheese at the top of the pyramid, And people might follow that more than they're going to follow saying eat low fat, you know, dairy with no sugar because it's fun to follow it. Overall, I think that change just really takes time. You know, we all know that when we try to change what we eat, it's really hard.

That's why New Year's resolutions rarely work out, right? And I also think that this particular administration is talking the talk, but they're not actually. doing a lot at this point to make it easier to eat those whole foods or to make those whole foods more affordable. So you can tell people that ultra-process foods are bad, but if they're still the cheapest and most convenient thing at the grocery store, a lot of people are going to still buy them. That was Jane Black. She's a food journalist, and she co-writes the newsletter consumed. Coming up, predictions for how we will eat in 2026, including one of my own. Support for today's show comes from Hungry Root.

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That's shipstation.com code today. Shipstation.com code today. Support for today explained comes from Vanta. Vanta says if you run a business, you know how important it is to keep your customers trust. Frankly, says Vanta maintaining that trust can make or break your business. makes sense. But the more your business grows, ads Vanta, the more complex your security and compliance tools can get. And left unchecked Vanta ads, that can turn into business chaos. And furthermore, chaos isn't exactly something that customers trust, nor is it a great security strategy. That's where Vanta comes in, says Vanta. Vanta says you can think of them as you're always on AI-powered security expert who can scale with you. How do they do that? She asks. Vanta says they can automate compliance, continuously monitor your control. and let you look at your entire compliance and risk ecosystem from one place so you can see the whole picture. Perhaps you're a fast-growing startup like cursor.

Perhaps you're an enterprise like something called Snowflake. Vanta says they can fit into your existing workflows. You can stop spending so much time worrying about compliance and instead focus on your customers. You can get started at vana.com.com slash explain. That's V-A-N-T-A-com slash explained. To eat real food. I'm Liz Dunn. I'm a food journalist. I write the newsletter consumed and I also am the contributor to the New York Times in the Wall Street Journal. All right. So you wrote a piece called Seven Food Predictions for 2026. Why don't you roll through them for me now?

Okay, without further ado. What comes after peak protein will be more protein. Sugar-loaded drinks will be everywhere. The supplement market will see. its biggest year ever. The grocery business will continue its V-shaped reinvention. Phones will eat first. Restaurants will need to adapt to GLP-1s. And big food will be in big trouble. Big food will be in big trouble. All right. We're going to get there. But first, let's start with protein. Peak protein will yield more protein. She says, now, listen, I will tell you honestly, I have leapt aboard the protein bandwagon with almost no information. I went full on protein last year.

I feel good. It seemed to help. Why do you think that people are going to go further, double down on this? So you're definitely not alone. Protein was the mega theme of 2025. I did more reporting on protein than I thought would have ever been possible. I feel like everyone's talking about protein right now. So I thought I'd share my go-to protein sources.

We're making a 92 gram protein shake first thing in the morning. I can't hit my protein! One kilo of cottage cheese! The question that I got more than any other as the year came to a close is what's next after protein, like what's the next protein? And I really feel like we're not ready for what's next yet. For a few reasons, one is that the supermarket has sort of reinvented itself for protein delivery. So whether it's zero sugar yogurts or meat sticks or protein boosted waffles, like the protein is out there and it's everywhere calling to us. People really continue to associate protein with fitness and with strength and power, all great positive things.

And maybe most importantly, the new federal dietary guidelines up the recommended allowance of protein. And so this is just going to add fuel to the fire. All right. Prediction number two, more sugar in drinks. which hardly seems possible. What do you see coming? This one does seem a little paradoxical because there is a lot of sugar hating out there,

but the country is not a monolith. And so there are a really sizable number of people who are drinking and enjoying super sugary, fast food and coffee chain beverages. So drinks like this have been around since the Frappuccino, but I think probably the best example of how they've really grown is a chain called Dutch Brothers. It's a coffee chain.

It's one of the fastest growing restaurant chains in America. And its growth is being driven not by coffee, coffee, but by these big, sweet, cold coffee drinks. I got the iced maple latte. They also have a banana bread mocha, which I've tried in love. Let's see. Ooh, they put a lot of caramel. Oh, my gosh.

That is so delicious. Everybody from Taco Bell to McDonald's is experimenting with what they call beverage innovation, how to add more of these drinks to their menus. And that is for two reasons. One is, you know, consumers are really tightening their wallets and they're looking for ways to have an indulgence without maybe ordering an entire fast food meal. And then on the business end, these drinks are really, really profitable. They're cheap to make. You can charge a fair amount for them. And so I expect to see fast food chains to continue to really push them.

Okay. You say that the supplement market is going to have a good year. Explain yourself. So supplements are a $70 billion market in the U.S. Really? Huge, huge market. There's a few reasons why this market has been exploding and again why I think it will really continue to explode in 2026. One is the Make America Healthy Again movement.

which really buys into supplements as a concept. Here's my supplement protocol as a non-toxic girly. Clearer skin, healthier hair, a sharper mind. These are grass-fed beef liver tablets. I like to say that it's anti-Big Pharma pro-Big Wellness. So there's a lot of faith in the idea that the right mix of supplements in your diet could cure really anything. I mean, you may remember Robert F. Kennedy suggesting that vitamin A was a good alternative

to vaccination for measles. So that's just kind of an example of this type of thinking. And then, you know, social media has just been a real accelerant for this industry. If an influencer that you follow says that she swears by magnesium to help her sleep, like that, that's probably really going to encourage you to give it a try. When I see them on the Instagram, I scroll past them really fast because I know I know I am a person who is highly susceptible to the supplement market. And at this moment, I do not want to take part in it. What about the grocery business and its continued V-shaped reinvention? What does this mean? Well, so I don't know about you, Noelle, but when I grew up, my family shopped at Stop and Shop, which was, you know, we went once a week. It was something for everyone

grocery store carried all the big packaged food brands. Yeah, we did shop right. Yeah, exactly. The prices are good, but they're not great, but they're kind of your main street grocer. Now, though, those mid-price grocers like Kroger's or Stop and Shop or Albertsons, they're really losing share to discounters. So Walmart sells about a quarter of the groceries in America today. Costco, Aldi, Dollar General, all of those discounters are really growing as people are willing to sacrifice name brand groceries or having a deli counter or maybe a larger selection for really, really deep value. And then the other end of the V is the very premium end of the market. I'm thinking about places like Aeroon. Are you familiar with Aeroon? I sure am. Never been in one, but I know what it is.

This is the most expensive grocery store in the country. And we're going to go check it out because I'm in disbelief. Last time I got lunch at Arawan, I accidentally spent $70. So let's see if we can do it for less today. And Aeroon says it's going to be expanding into as many as 20 cities in the coming years, not quite as high end as Aeroon, but also in the more premium space, there's brands like sprouts, which is a natural fruits grocer, which is also really expanding rapidly. And so that's sort of the other end of this V where you see people seeking really deep discounts on one end and then on the other end of the spectrum splurging on sort of high end premium grocery categories. All right. So you say phones will eat first. What I mean by this is that, I mean, listen, it's not no.

that people choose where they eat in part based on the Instagram ability. They're taking pictures of their food or pictures of the interiors. But I was really shocked to see a recent trend report released by the online bookings platform Open Table, which had a little tidbit that I just thought was staggering. 77% of Jen's ears and 79% of millennials said that they consider a restaurant's Instagram or TikTok worthiness when deciding whether to eat That's a lot. Yes, it is. That's a big factor in the decision making. I would expect to see like really sort of viral, appealing menu items and I guess decor touches that really lend themselves to photography. So this is going to continue to be a really important factor in how people think about where they're dining. The other big important factor, as your list points out, is GLP-1s. And the fact that everybody who sells food is going to have to adapt to what GLP-1s are doing.

So who's adapting in 2026 and how? Now, if you're a restaurant and something like 1 in 10 or 1 in 5 potentially, eventually diners are on a drug that cuts their desire for big portions, that's something that will have to really influence how you design your menu. because restaurants need to continue to try to make the same amount of revenue, even if people want smaller portions. All right. And then finally, big food is in big trouble.

You know, over the years, the big packaged food companies have really been able to reformulate their way out of pretty much any diet trend. So low fat, low carb, gluten-free, there's a way to make a very profitable package food that fits all of those trends. Today we're going to be trying Cheerios, Protein cereal. You guys are going to want to try these. I found these protein infused waters. They're so good. What we're seeing now in terms of how people are thinking about the food they're eating is that they're really skeptical of highly processed foods. So that's a really new and different challenge if you're a packaged food company. How do you continue to make profitable products that are not processed, which is

sort of the whole engine of how you made them profitable to begin with. I think that there's going to have to be a real reckoning at these companies to figure out how they continue to, you know, perform for shareholders and, and remain profitable as these eating habits are changing dramatically. Can I give you my prediction? I would love your prediction. Okay. This year, Kiwis with the skin on are going to become very big. Eating, like, as in eating kis. Yeah. You know, my brother-in-law does that. I start. I just. It doesn't seem right, Noel. I feel very pure. It is disgusting. It is not nice.

But I feel like a really good person when I do it. Well, hey, I'll buy it. I have to try it. Liz Dunn. Consumed is the newsletter. Liz also contributes to the NYT and the WSJ. Miles Bryan produced today's show Jolie Myers edited. Patrick Boyd and David Tadishore engineered and Andrea Lopez Crusado is our fact checker. The rest of the team includes Hattie Mawagi, Peter Balinanon, Rosen, Dan. Danielle Hewitt, Kelly Wessinger, Ariana Espudu, Dustin De Soto, and Estead Herndon. Avishai Artsy and Amina El Sadi are MGMT.

Executive producer Miranda Kennedy is no relation. Support from the show comes from Sean Ramos firm. He'll get space in the next life. We use music by Breakmaster Cylinder. I'm Noel King. Today Explained is distributed by WNYC, and the show is a part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. For more, visitpodcast.com. I'm