Today, Explained - TEXAS HOLD DEMS

Episode Date: August 7, 2025

Texas Republicans want to remake voting maps to their advantage. Democrats say they’re ready to play that game too. Who wins? You have to listen to find out. This episode was produced by Peter Balonon-Rosen, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by Andrea Kristinsdottir, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast. Texas state lawmakers boarding a bus after leaving the state earlier today so a quorum could not be reached on a redistricting vote. Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What was the first thing you said when you, like, woke up this morning? Here's the first thing Donald Trump said. Truth Social. I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate census based on modern day facts and figures. And, importantly, using the results and information gained from the presidential election of 2024, people who are in our country illegally will not be counted in the census. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Breaking with tradition, norm-busting, unprecedented, blah, blah, blah, but the point is the man is fixated on maps.

For further evidence, see Texas. Trump wants Texas to shake up its districts to get him five extra Republican seats in the 2026 midterms. Texas Democrats fled the state so lawmakers can't push new maps through the legislature. And now the FBI might get involved messing with Texas on today Explained from Vox. Today, it's claimed. Eleanor Klobinoff, law and politics reporter at the Texas Tribune. So this is something we started hearing about a couple of weeks ago. We heard that President Trump was asking Texas to consider redrawing its congressional maps

to strengthen the GOP majority in the House ahead of the 2026 election. Texas would be the biggest one. Are you calling them for a complete redrawing of the congressional map ahead of it? Just a very simple redrawing. We pick up five seats. The Texas House has like a proposed redraw of the map that tears up a bunch of districts in the Dallas area, the Houston area, the Austin area, as well as the Rio Grande Valley. And based on like our initial analysis, it looks like if the 2026 midterms go the way the

2024 election went, they will get five additional seats out of this map. All of these overwhelming Democratic districts currently represented by Democrats, they would become double-digit Trump districts. First of all, Texas is doing what we are allowed to, by the law. Democrats are freaking out because they are realizing Texas has the authority to redistrict, and we're going to do so in a way that's going to lead to these additional seats that will vote Republican, and they will be serving in Congress in the next session. You know, the House Committee on Redistricting held several hearings for, Like a state government hearing, tons of attention.

Donald Trump is trying to rig the next election. A thousand people showed up in Houston. Let's show this country what it looks like to stand, to fight, and to win. People submitted comments. They were waiting hours and hours to testify. My message today is that I care far more about protecting the cohesiveness of my community and it being properly represented than I do about trying to marginalize. anyone I might disagree with.

The committee votes the map out on a Saturday. On Sunday, they set it on the calendar for Monday, and Sunday afternoon, the Democrats skipped out. Hello, everybody. This is State Representative in Arminoles. I'm live on the plane, breaking form. Hey, everyone, we just arrived here. Chicago, it is 2025.

We are breaking quorum. We didn't start this fight. Donald Trump started it. He asked the Texas legislature to get rid of your voice. So for me, I'm not going to do that. I'm not going to go to work to silence you. Where do they go? Most of them went to Chicago to, well, actually, most of them went to the suburbs of Chicago.

My colleague, who agreed to go out when she thought it was Chicago, was disappointed to learn that they were in St. Charles, Illinois, well outside Chicago. So they went there, you know, where they've gotten a lot of support from Governor Pritzker. The state of Illinois is proud to stand side by side with these brave Texas Democrats heroes. Others went to New York where the governor there has said, you know, they will look at redistricting. I'm exploring with our leaders every option to redraw our state congressional lines as soon as possible. Some went to Massachusetts. What's happening in Texas matters to the people of Massachusetts.

Massachusetts. Just sort of fanning out to these, like, Democratic strongholds, essentially. Do they have to go there because, like, what, a Republican governor could, like, extradite them back to Texas? Yes, essentially. They have to leave the state. The House of Representatives in their absence voted to issue arrest warrants for them that basically say, like, we will send state troopers to your house or we're, you know, we'll try to track you down. If we find you, we will bring you to the Capitol and then you cannot leave. I have signed the civil arrest warrants. We will work with DPS to locate members. I saw, for instance, there is one member who said that they're doing a fundraiser here in Austin tomorrow. And I've sent that fundraising letter to DPS and said they should be invited to attend as well. We'll see how that goes forward.

These are not like criminal arrest warrants. It doesn't go on their record. But it's go find them and bring them. But these warrants only extend to state lines. So, you know, they have to leave the state. that they will be brought back. Of course, there is, like, a federal police force. I believe it's called the FBI.

And the latest news is that the FBI might actually get involved here? Certainly there has been some chatter about that. Our sitting senator John Cornyn has asked for the FBI to get involved. President Trump sort of alluded to maybe that being necessary. It almost looks like they've abandoned the state. It looks very bad. Yeah, go ahead, please. The FBI get involved.

Should the FBI get involved? Well, they may have to. They may have to. No, I know they want them back. That would be an extraordinary step if that were to happen. You know, I'm willing to believe that by the time this airs, it may have happened. Like, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. But, you know, Texas is a state that pretty proudly likes to manage its own business itself

and keep the federal government out of its affairs. So it would be quite the reversal to allow the federal government to arrest its lawmakers and bring them back to Texas. This is obviously like an extreme moment for Texas politics, but it's also not an unprecedented one. As I recall, Texas Democrats have fled the state before, right? Nobody's seen anything like it, even though they've done it twice before. Can you remind us under what circumstances and how it ended? Recently, they left the state in 2021 to protest a bill that would have further restricted voting access.

Democrats walked out of the special session, and more than 50 of them flew to Washington, D.C. That was during the Biden administration, kind of a different vibe in D.C. Vice President Kamala Harris carved out time in her schedule to hold a roundtable with the exiled politicians. And so I'm here to thank you and to have a conversation with you. They stuck it out there. They burned through one special session. But when the second special session was called, they did end up returning. And ultimately it did pass.

And then in 2003, Members, if I can have your attention, a quorum is not present. They left the state to do a quorum break on this exact issue, which is a mid-decade redistricting. And I think that the chicken D's that did this ought to be ashamed of themselves today, and that's what they are. There's a bunch of chicken D's. So there is precedent for this to happen. I think what's unprecedented about this is, A, the pressure for the legislation that they're protesting is coming from the federal government. And B, the way Texas Republican leaders are responding with this, like, very,

usually they just kind of like waded out and eventually the quorum break breaks. And that's not how this is going. How did it go back in 2003 when almost the same thing happened? Eventually the quorum break broke. And they came back and they passed the maps. And that was the beginning of Republican dominance in Texas. The reason they did mid-decade redistricting in 2003 at all was because they had just won the House and the Senate for the first time. So they took the opportunity, redrew maps that benefited them.

And from there on out, we have seen basically unfettered Republican dominance in Texas. So the Democrats who just fled and are in Chicago and other spots, the Chicago suburbs, we should note, they know that the last time they, I guess, kind of gave in on this issue, they forever. ever altered their chances of dominating Texas politics. Does that mean they're going to hold out longer this time? Does that mean it's going to get uglier this time? If history is any guide, they leave. Eventually, they come back, and what was going to happen happens. I think they don't like that.

This narrative that it's inevitable, if you just wait them out, they'll come back. It is also just reality, right? Like, these people have jobs they have to go to and they have kids. I mean, school starts here soon. are you going to miss the first day of school? Some of them brought their kids with them. And now you're like basically a fugitive from your home state. Like, you know, Texas is a part-time legislature. You make $600 a month. Like you're not, can't feed your family and like leave your company behind or your business or whatever. So there are just realities. And the truth is,

they don't need all of them to break the quorum break. You know, just in the last day here, we've had this sort of escalation from Governor Abbott in which he has asked the Texas Supreme court to vacate the seats of these members who have broken quorum, which is unprecedented, shocking to all the legal experts that I've talked to. And so there's both sort of a, within Texas, a constitutional crisis. And then of course, these like national democracy questions about, like, who gets to decide when the rules are set and when you change the rules in the middle of the game and things like that. And then what happens? Republicans aren't necessarily guaranteed these five seats, but they'll probably get them.

Right. So if the quorum break ends in one way or another, they absolutely will pass the map. We'll have the midterms in 2026. These districts seem very likely to go for Republicans based on 2024 performance. But 2024 was a pretty exceptional year in Texas, and most notably that we saw Latino voters swing so far for President Trump compared to historical precedent. And a lot of these maps are based on the idea that those same voters will go for Republican candidates across the board in 2026. Now, President Trump is not on the ballot in 26. It remains to be seen whether Latino voters are, you know, thinking this is what I voted for and I love this, or if there's any buyer's remorse that might sort of turn some of those

seats a little bit more competitive than you would think. Of course, it's also not guaranteed that Donald Trump gets his five Republican districts because now that Texas is going this route, governors like Newsom in California are threatening revenge, right? Right. We have basically a redistricting arms race afoot now, and you've got governors in California, governors in New York and Illinois saying maybe we'll take a look at our maps. But then you also have President Trump saying, you know, well, then I'll get Missouri to take a look at their maps. And now suddenly we are in a mess of a situation.

And you've got even some Republican lawmakers in Congress talking about legislation to basically say, like, we have to stop this before it gets on top of us. We shouldn't have this sort of enormous instability of constantly shuffling lines. I mean, imagine if this thing continues and state after state after state decides to redraw their lines. Part of the reason why Texas is why this is happening in Texas first is that we're going to, We're very large, and so you can get five seats in a way that some states don't even have five seats. But also our filing deadline is very, very early. And so this is just sort of a testing ground in Texas. Like there's no reason to believe that with President Trump, you know, five seats will be enough and that he will stop there versus trying to get other states to redistrict as well.

You can read and support Eleanor Klybinoff's work at Texas Tribune.org. We're going to explore the Democrat strategy with a Democratic strategist next on today, Explained. Support for the show comes from Bombus, and today they want to talk to you about socks, because it's summer, and maybe it's a time when you realize that your socks are just not up to the challenges of warm weather. If I'm being real, I don't wear socks. in this summer, but, you know, follow your bliss. They're talking about, like, running marathons, and I don't do that either. So maybe you need socks, and Bombas has some.

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That's this week on channels, wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. All my ex is living. Today explained. Texas Democrats have fled the state. California Democrats are plotting revenge. We wanted to hear about the strategy, so we reached out to Steve Maviglio. He's a longtime Democratic strategist. in Sacramento, California.

We asked, Steve, what the big plan was? Well, it's called retaliation. Uh-huh. Democrats have no power when it comes to the national electoral scene right now. We're out of power in the Senate, out of power in the House, out of power in the presidency,

and this is the one lever of power that we have remaining. Since Texas made the first move, Democrats have been in the mood to fight back Trump at every level, and you're seeing it play out here. Whatever they are doing will be neutered here in the state of California. It is on. Governor Newsom says California will square off with Texas all to stop President Trump,

Newsom says, from rigging the 2026 election. They've triggered this response and we're not going to roll over and we're going to fight fire with fire. So the process is he declares a special election. The legislature passes a bill with maps. That goes on to the ballot for a special election in November. of this year. Voters vote up or down on it, and then it goes into effect in December. We have the largest congressional delegation in the nation, and it's overwhelmingly dominated by

Democrats now, but there are ways through gerrymandering that could gain us even more seats. The numbers go from five to seven, depending on who you talk to. The thought is, if Texas pull the trigger. We're going to do the same. And then you'll see probably the ripple effect across the country. So you'll do the same. And then some other Republican states, say Missouri will retaliate against you. And then the question will be like, what can New York or Illinois do, basically something like that? Yeah, it's going to be a series of dominoes that'll fall across the country. So what you're saying is there might be like a big national embrace of partisan gerrymandering. Everyone will get on board.

Yeah, but you know, you have to look at it this way. Most of the states already are there. A lot of these states, North Carolina, Indiana, a couple places, where it's really hard to get more seats for one party or the other. California moved forward in a big way a few years ago by really making an independent commission for such a big state. You're going to take the power of withdrawing the district lines away from the politicians, from the legislators

and give it to ordinary citizens. And it's going to be a whole new ballgame here in California we're not going to have lawmakers drawing their own districts. And I fought against that at the time and I'm having a lot of... I told you so moments right now because my policy at the time was

why are we doing this when the rest of the country isn't doing this? Why is we as a democratic state are basically handing over our party control over the map to an independent commission when nobody else is doing it and lo and behold, look what's happening. But you're being rhetorical, right?

Because the reason to do it is because it's democratic. It's giving people the power to draw congressional maps instead of having it be a partisan process that only benefits one side. Yeah, amen, right? It's a dilemma because all the good government groups,

the common causes, ACLUs, they were all gung-ho for this in California because they thought if California did this, then the rest of the country would follow. But the Republicans never did. So a couple other Democratic states did, but nobody else did it. So we're left at a disadvantage once again

because Democrats did the right thing instead of the smart thing. And Democrats are trying to point out the unfairness of all this and how wrong it is, but I really don't think Donald Trump gives too squads. about that. Texas Republicans and just about every Republican all over the country follows him whatever he does these days. So, you know, I'm not optimistic about that, but I think we have to wait and see and then see what happens. It seems like what Donald Trump cares about

is the bond market. The name's market. Bond market. And I don't know if this is having any effect on the bond market at the moment. But a bigger issue for your side of the aisle might be that people are quite mad at the Democratic Party right now. Its approval rating is, I think, at its lowest point in like 35 years. Do you think their actions on this districting issue could help that? Or is this kind of fleeing the state of Texas and doing tit for tat out in California is going to further bury them in polling? Well, the problem is we're sort of rudderless and leaderless right now. And our governor here is doing everything he can to put his face forward

because he wakes up every morning, looks in the mirror and says, how can I be president? And this is his latest tool. Do you think he's, you know, raising his profile in some way by trying to retaliate against Texas Governor Greg Abbott? Yeah, there's no doubt about it. Listen, Democrats right now, especially the ones that vote in primary, are looking for a leader who is going to be the anti-Trump.

And I think Gavin Newsom is doing that. We see the governor of New York. She's got a tough primary against a more progressive opponent and possibly a tough general election. So she's trying to get her Democratic base. And to think that we're going to do this with a purity test and make sure it's completely fair to everybody involved, the reason we are able to draw the lines

because we're Democrats, because the majority of people in this state selected us, elected us to be leaders. Pritzker in Illinois. Same thing, wants to be president, doing all he can. Everything's on the table. I mean, look, we got to fight fire with fire. They've, frankly, tossed the rulebook out, and they're just acting in an unconstitutional fashion. And what we're going to have to do is whatever it takes to preserve democracy. And so I think you're seeing a lot of this from Democrats who realize, wow, this is the only bit of power that we actually have.

Let's use it. Let's not just sit back and get rolled like we have been on so many other issues. And I think that's why you see an issue that's pretty mundane, suddenly translating into a main topic of political conversation. I think it was Mahatma Gandhi who once said an eye for an eye leaves the whole world line, Stephen. Are you concerned that we're doing irreparable harm to our democracy here with this kind of strategy? Yeah, the message we're trying to save democracy from Trump by doing something anti-democratic is one that, you know, trouble. a lot of people, including myself, at least in California, the voters will have an opportunity to wait in on that. But in many other places like Texas, they're not. It's just being rammed through. That's what's really anti-democratic. So, yeah, it's a mixed message on both side. But again,

you know, Democrats, we want to fight fire with fire. We want an eye for an eye. And we haven't been doing that. And there's a lot of Democrats said, well, damn, it's about time you do. When they go low, we go just as low. You know, you're a strategist. So let me ask you this question. If this is tit for tat and Texas goes first and then California follows, you know, play this out for us like 10 steps. Who ultimately wins this fight? Which states have more seats to create out of thin air?

You know, the Republicans have game this out. They're good at this, right? They're going to pick up more seats by this. There's no doubt about it. So Democrat strategy here is to play tip for tap, but you're saying that Republicans eventually win that game. Yeah. If you go down the line and analyze every state,

the potential is for Republicans to win this in the long term. Okay, then why play the game? We have no choice, right? That's what Newsom and some of the Democrats are saying. We cannot let them get away with this and just sit back and say, okay, bleak. Bleak, very bleak. But, you know, when you don't win elections, this is what happens.

And that's why Democrats need to get back in the business of focusing on issues that people care about and win elections. Our producer, Peter, thinks that democracy's cooked. Do you think democracy's cooked? No, it's on the burners, but, you know, I sadly and sometimes unbelievably

have great faith in the American people to right the ship. I think the pendulum swings back. Things go in cycles. I'm an optimist. Hey, hell yeah. Me too. Apparently, Peter, isn't?

Well, it's a game of chess, honestly. It's not checkers. I mean, there's a lot of strategic moves that are being made on both sides here. And if One Piece moves in the wrong box, Game over. Steve Maviglio,

Democratic strategist with Forza Communications in Sacramento, California. I'm Sean Ramos for him. This is today explained. As you heard, our program today was produced by Peter Balinan-Rosen. It was edited by Amina Al-Assadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard,

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Thank you.