Today, Explained - The Class of 2020

Episode Date: May 15, 2020

Graduate? In this economy!? The Atlantic's Annie Lowrey explains the economic reality new graduates face and Sean offers one graduating senior a commencement speech. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit connectsontario.C. today. Summer is coming, school is ending, which means it's graduation season, and we're learning that graduation looks and sounds a lot different in the pandemic. On behalf of the faculty, the students, and the alumni, I would like to welcome you to the first virtual commencement ceremonies in the history of Georgia Southwestern State University. You got no prom. You got no real ceremony. Don't feel bad. At least you're originals. You are the one and only. You're going to have a whole lot of fun for the rest of your life knowing that. Sing it from the rooftops. We are the class of 2020. We got a virtual graduation. We got a drive-by and we got McConaughey to do our commencement. Now, while having Matthew McConaughey drop into your commencement might sound

all right, all right, all right, it still falls short of what a lot of people have been dreaming of their entire lives. People like Annie Chadha. She's a graduating senior at the University of Washington in Seattle. Oh, man. It's honestly like I, this is going to sound terrible because I feel like I always plan things out and, you know, all that good stuff. I thought everything was going to be normal. And I think that was a terrible assumption I had. I think I should have been more realist. Like I think that was a terrible assumption I had. I think I should have been more realist. Like, I'm an optimist.

So I'm like, you know, it's going to be fine. It's going to be okay. We'll figure it out. You are not going to miss your graduation. No, I wasn't. And, you know, it's so tough because I'm a child of formerly incarcerated parents. My dad, he was in prison for a long time. And he missed my high school

graduation, unfortunately. So, you know, the college one, you know, since he's out, it was supposed to be kind of like, hey, you know, like I did this for us. And especially as a first generation, it's like, I don't want to say I only went to school to college just to walk the stage. That's not right. But the stage and just the graduation, the commencement symbolizes so much. It's just so sad because I couldn't, I feel like I failed to give them that moment because I know it was going to be a lot for them too, just to finally soak it in like,

okay, after all these personal circumstances we've been through, like one of the things that we thought you couldn't do because we don't have the financial stability, you did it and you figured it out. So it was really hard. I mean, I had to break the news. I thought it was going to happen, honestly. Like I was like, this is in February, you know, that was my mindset. And I was like, my graduation's in June. That's like a lot of time for them to figure it out. You know, all the health officials and, you know, the administration,

like they'll figure it out. And unfortunately, that was wrong, but it was tough. Yeah. When did you find out? When did you get the official word from the University of Washington? Oh, you know, I was really upset at them for that. I was on the phone with advisors and they were telling me that they're figuring it out. And this was in the beginning or end of March. And they were like, they're going to do something. Don't worry. Like they know how much this moment means to you guys, all that stuff. And they literally told us in the middle of April. So very recently, I found out and it was like an email. So other universities like University of Southern California, San Francisco State, different universities were postponing it. So even though they sent like, hey, it's not going to happen, there's a virtual ceremony, we're going to postpone it into fall.

Our university didn't even say anything like that. They just said, unfortunately, you have a virtual commencement and this is what it is. And next year in 2021, depending on the situation, there might be some activities you can participate in, but we don't know what that looks like.

What's a virtual commencement anyway, for the people who aren't familiar, which I imagine is most people. Yeah. So, you know, honestly, I haven't been through it, so I'm hoping to see, but I've seen videos and it just looks like the dean, the president of the school, like a bunch of different people just calling out your names and putting a photo up of you with a quote as to what they said because that's oh no that's what I have so it's basically a zoom it's what we're doing right now yeah a zoom chat and it's so and they were like hey if you want to send this link to your family and friends you can like I will send it to them of course but what are they going to do they can't even scream and yell like it has to be on mute so they're just screaming in their house and they're going to look so weird like all the neighbors are going to be like, what are they doing in there? How did you break the news to your dad who had just gotten out of prison and was going to see

your first ever graduation? And this is the big one, I imagine. Yeah, it was tough. I called my mom first because I'm very close to my mom. And, you know, she's been through a lot. And it was tough because I was crying. I was like bawling uncontrollably because I was I really wanted that moment. It meant so much to me. And I know it meant so much to them. And she was just, you know, she's my mom, like a mom. They just they just know what to say. You know, they had plans to come visit me up here during my graduation, of course, and just celebrate with me. And it was it was tough. Like, I don't I don't think I've ever gotten over that moment. And I didn't call my dad a week later, which was really bad. He was just like, it's OK, you're going to

go get your master's. Right. So we'll go again. And I was like, well, you know, that's a great question. I don't know if I want to do that. Oh, that's a bummer. I hope you do. I hope you do so that you can have the moment that you deserve. Yeah. Have you put any thought into how you're going to celebrate now that you know that your official commencement will be a glorified Zoom? You know, I don't even know. I forgot when the date is, which sounds terrible. I knew the set dates of in-person graduation

I think a lot of people can identify with you not really knowing when it's going to happen people don't know what day it is or what time it is so I'm wondering how are they going to accommodate this are they going to pre-record this because that's going to make me even more upset

but in a way I live with my significant other and I have two dogs, two puppies so it's just going to be us honestly because my mom and dad can't visit other and I have two dogs, two puppies. So it's just going to be us, honestly, because my mom and dad can't visit me and I'm not going to let them visit me in a plane. So it's just going to be me. I don't know what I'm going to do right now. I'm sure my significant other has something planned. He keeps telling me that there's something and I have to be available a certain time

and this like that. But I just don't know what's going to come after. Maybe a Zoom chat with my parents, but it just, it's really sad because, you know, I was supposed to be around my family and I can't even go visit them during this time, nor can they still come up here. It's just going to have to be FaceTime or Zoom chats for now. Well, Annie, I tell you what, you know, our plan for this episode was to talk to someone like you and then to talk to a reporter named Annie Lowry from The Atlantic about what graduates like you are facing right now, like with the job market and with the economy. But if you want to

stick around after that, we're going to throw you a graduation ceremony on this show. Oh, that's so awesome. I would love to. Would you come hang out at a personalized graduation ceremony just for you? Yeah, it's all about me. I'm just kidding. Of course I would. All right, we're going to take a break and then talk to other Annie, Annie Lowry, about what kind of world you're facing as a graduate in 2020. And then we're going to throw you a party. Yay! I'm so excited.

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If you have any questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Annie Lowry, you're a reporter at The Atlantic. I want to ask you a question I don't usually start

interviews with. Can I ask how old you are? Yeah, I'm 35. I'm like, I guess on the older side of millennials, but like middle of the road millennial. Totally. I'm 35, I guess on the older side of millennials, but like, middle of the road millennial. Totally. I'm 35 too. And I remember graduating back in like 2007. It was a tricky time. Do you have recollections as well? Yeah, I mean, so I graduated in 2007. And the economy was completely falling apart at that point. It was pretty clear that things were going wrong. Yeah. And it was terrifying. And I remember, at that point, I knew pretty clear that things were going wrong. And it was terrifying. And I remember at that point, I knew that I was not good for anything other than journalism. I'm just like barely capable of being a journalist. And that was like the only thing I had ever prepared myself for.

And being like, this industry might not survive, right? Like I might have to get like an actual practical job. And I've been really lucky that I didn't have to do that. But it was really hard watching a whole cohort, like our cohort, go through that. It was brutal. This feels so different. It was easy to not just completely despair, you know, 10, 12, 13 years ago. But now I can just imagine what these kids are going through must look so much worse. Yes, I think it's worse in some ways and perhaps better in others. So the worst part is that this is a higher unemployment rate already than we saw during the worst of the Great Recession.

So we're roughly 15% unemployment for a bunch of complicated technical reasons. That's kind of an undercount. And the highest it got during the Great Recession was just around 10%. Where it might be somewhat better, and we don't know this, but we surmise it, is that the Great Recession itself

lasted about 19 months, 18 months. And then there were a number of years afterwards that might as well have been recessionary years because they were so weak. We don't know that this is going to last that long. There's some hope that things will pick up a little bit faster on the other side. And so there's a chance that we're not going to have 18 months of contraction. The contraction part will probably be fast, but it will probably be a lot more severe. So, you know, I don't know that that's really a glimmer of hope, but that's what people are hoping for. So what does it mean for, you know, the one thing that graduating seniors care about, which is finding a job? It's really bleak out there.

Really, really bleak. So there's a pretty big body of academic economic evidence around what happens to people who graduate into a recession. So that's whether they're leaving school at a high school or college, dropping out, whatever. What happens to them when they're formally entering the labor force, not just for seasonal or temporary work. And it's really bad. So you take very large initial earnings and employment losses as a cohort, and then those losses stick around for like 20 years. And so it can put you on a lower lifetime's earning trajectory because 20 years is a long time to earn less money. And so for the class of 2020, that is what we expect to happen. They are going to have a really high unemployment rate and probably that kind of scarring and pain is going to stick around for them for quite some

time compared with like the class of 2019 or 2018. So what are graduating seniors like, you know, other Annie in Washington State to do? I think it's going to be interesting to see political systems change to accommodate the demands of these younger people. It has been apparent for decades that the United States has, for instance, a problematically expensive and insufficient in coverage system of health insurance. It has been apparent for decades that the United States has a system of child care that's wildly unequal and that parents are by and large left alone to figure out what to do with their kids up to the age of five, unlike all of our peer OECD countries. The United States has looser labor standards. It has a smaller

safety net. All of these things combine to manufacture precarity and there are policy solutions for all of these things. But to what extent the political system is capable of responding is a really big problem. And this gets into issues of partisanship, of voter disenfranchisement, of the structure of the Senate. It's really, really hard. But, you know, Gen Xers and millennials are now really, really big and powerful voting blocs. And to the extent that, you know,

they haven't really existed in an economy where the rising tide has been lifting all boats for some time, you know, maybe there's more of a demand for change. I mean, the last time we had you on the show, it was to talk about your book, Give People Money, which is all about universal basic income. Were you surprised to see Donald Trump do a version of that last month? No.

So there are really great proposals that would basically say when we have an employment shock, when all of a sudden a bunch of people get laid off, we should just start sending checks to them. And we should tie those checks to the unemployment rate. So once the unemployment rate comes back down, you stop doing it automatically. And that this would be a really efficient and effective counter cyclical policy. So, you know, there are various proposals to do this. I think the fact that Republicans pushed the one-time $1,200 check is a real tidal shift in the sort of acceptability of these type of cash policies. Though, you know, you've seen kind of rebate checks before, right? George W. Bush did some version of this where a ton of people got a

check with his name on it. I don't know that it was literally a check with his name on it. I think that was a first. They got these rebates back from him. And when the money reaches the American people, we expect they will use it to boost consumer spending, and that will spur job creation as well. So I think you'll see more of that. It's really effective counter-recessionary policy.

It's generally pretty easy for governments to do. You get people cash in pocket, they spend it, that really helps you fight your recession. And right now we're not doing nearly enough to fight the giant, miserable recession that we have on top of this really horrible public health crisis. So I guess like outside of, say, voting and using the political power of this new cohort, what can young people who are graduating this week, this weekend, do in the meantime while there are no jobs, while they can't even pick up a gig at a restaurant or a bar and make some good tip money? I think for a lot of people, you wait it

out and you assume that employers are not going to treat this like a normal recession, and hopefully they're not going to punish people for having gaps on their resumes during this period. But I think that this is an age cohort that has never assumed that anything is going to be handed to them. They've only known political dysfunction and a high inequality, slow growth economy. And maybe they have a lot of grit because of that, right? Maybe they're like, I know that nothing is going to get handed to me. I know that the world is messed up. I've only known forever wars and income inequality. I'm going to do it myself. And so I think that on the silver linings part of this, I think that you could see some real ingenuity in this cohort. But in the

meantime, yeah, I mean, improving your training or educational credentials, including with online programs, those kinds of things are going to be really important. And then as shelter in place is lifted, figuring out where those employment opportunities are is going to be hard, but it's something that these young people are going to have to do. Annie, thank you so much for your time. Thanks for having me. Annie Chata, welcome back. What did you think of what Annie Lowry had to say? I was really optimistic after listening to her.

Really? I kind of felt optimistic in the sense that it's going to be difficult and it's going to be really hard for the next couple of years. And I don't know how long, but I think for me, I am someone that is resilient and that's something that has always stuck with me. And I feel like this is just another situation that I'm going to have to get through and I'm not going to sit around and it might take a while for me to get there and for my cohort and every single person that's going through something right now. But I think holding on to that glimmer of hope

is what's kind of getting me through the moment. I think that's a great attitude and I'm glad you're optimistic because the alternative is to be really cynical and to despair. And in my experience, that's less productive. Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to, it's going to be this year or a few years from now,

like what's going to happen. But I'm going to figure it out, just like every other situation. And I hope my cohort and all the people that, you know, are listening to this kind of hold on to that glimmer of hope. It's really hard, but that's the best that we can do right now. And, you know, it's going to be okay.

That felt like a commencement speech to me, if I'm being honest. But I prepared one for you anyway, so I'm going to do it now. So, you ready for a little ceremony? Yes. Oh, yes. Okay, here it comes. We prepared one for you. Graduates and guests, welcome to the university of washington's 144th commencement ceremony honoring the graduating class of 2020 Please welcome the host of Today Explained, Sean Ramos-Furham. Hello, Annie and the class of 2020.

It's great to be here today. I want to share with you something a friend of mine said recently that really stuck with me. Maybe it's because he said it yesterday. Only time will tell. What he said was short and sweet. He said, the things I would do for precedented times. I host this daily news podcast for Vox called Today Explained. Every day, my team and I try to explain the most important news in the country and the world, and we end up using the

word unprecedented a lot. So much that we actually try to not use it for fear it'll lose its meaning. But think for a minute about all of the unprecedented things we've seen in the past few years. Back in 2016, when a lot of you were just showing up to your universities, we had this unprecedented election. We were going to get our first female president or our first reality TV president. It was unprecedented. And after we were inundated with tweets, with investigations, with indictments, with firings, an impeachment, a Brexit, and now we have a pandemic. We've had versions of these kinds of events in our history, but everything feels without precedent now because there's just so

much more information and misinformation flying at us at all times from different sources, and it's overwhelming, right? That's why shows like ours exist. But it's not always bad, and that's what I wanted to remind you of today. I think if it were all bad, it'd be really hard to make a daily news show. It'd be really hard to get out of bed in the morning. It would just be totally exhausting. And I have to say that after two and a half years and almost 600 episodes of this show, the thing that's given me and my team the most hope about the world is you. It's the class of 2020. You're a generation that doesn't assume the world is beyond repair, that doesn't look at a divisive politics and disengage. Some of the episodes that have given us the most inspiration and hope were about

you. In the early days of our show, we covered the March for Our Lives. I'm sure some of you were out there marching in Washington, D.C. or elsewhere in the country demanding gun control and making the whole world pay attention. Then Greta showed up, and she wasn't even old enough to vote, but she stared down the most powerful people in the world at the United Nations. She led climate strikes across the entire planet. If this pandemic that has canceled the commencement that you thought you were going to have today has been good for anything, it's that it's made more people aware of all the work we have to do in this country and around the world. I'm not going to lie, it's a tall order, it's a lot of work, and it's always an incremental

fight but it's a good fight. It's the most important fight and I'm so glad the class of 2020 is joining that fight in earnest today. We're so excited to have you. So congratulations on your graduation Annie C and the class of 2020! Yay! Thank you so much. And thanks also to the Today Explained team, Amina Asadi, Bridget McCarthy, Ifem Shapiro, Jillian Weinberger, Halima Annie, and congratulations again.

Yeah. And I brought some bubbly Oh my god I've never popped champagne in a closet before I'm really scared I think it'll be okay To hear this noise Yay! Oh nothing came out

Just kidding Cheers Annie Cheers