Today, Explained - The dictator vs. the homemaker

Episode Date: August 11, 2020

The longtime leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, is facing nationwide protests and accusations that he stole Sunday’s election. His opponent, a 37-year-old homemaker who entered the race in place of her imprisoned husband, has fled the country. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older to wager. Ontario only. Please play responsibly. If you have any questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. I'm Sean Ramos-Firm, it's Today Explained, and today's show is a little different from the 600-something that came before it,

because today, for the first time, I interviewed a journalist who couldn't tell me where he was when we spoke, and he couldn't tell me because it wasn't safe. I decided that this specific moment, I can do much more if I will be free. I would be definitely in jail if I would stay. So now I help my colleagues journalists being in the secure place.

And I don't reveal where I am, it doesn't matter. The most important that me, my friends, and my team, we all work for giving people true information. This is Frenak Viachorka. He's a journalist from Belarus where there was an election on Sunday. The country's longtime leader, Alexander Lukashenko, claims to have won his sixth term in a landslide, but people are protesting in the streets saying the whole thing was rigged. His opponent has now fled the

country, and some think this could be the beginning of the end of a guy who's been called Europe's last dictator. Everything began actually in 1994 when President Lukashenko became the president. And 26 years after, people realized they don't want him anymore. Of course, there were many protests, but this one is very unique because the level of support for Lukashenko is extremely low. And the major factor of this change is COVID. And Lukashenko, from the very beginning, he said that COVID is hoax, COVID is fake, it doesn't exist.

There is no virus here, he said. Do you see them flying around? Refusing to cancel large events. And he didn't take any serious steps to prevent disease. Convincing people that you have to drink vodka, you have to ride tractor. And these guys who died, they died because they are fat, they are old. So this outraged many people because their relatives, their families were in hospitals. And then president showed them that he doesn't care. And people then organized themselves.

They say, okay, if you don't care, then we will help our doctors and we will help ourselves. How do people help themselves defeat COVID in Belarus? They began collecting money on different online platforms. Money to buy masks, protective gears, some stuff to help hospitals. And that was like something very new for Belarusians. They are always relying on the government, on the leader, on someone who must help, who must support, who must solve all the problems. They need a savior. And Lukashenko was the savior for many years.

He was always saying, I will help you, I'm in charge of this, and that was the part of the social contract. But not anymore. Lukashenko just isolated himself, people took responsibility, and people created infrastructure for the civil society. And those protests that are happening right now, this is continuation of this people's self-organization during COVID crisis. The same people who were gathering money for doctors now gathering money for political prisoners, for those wounded, injured, for families of killed ones. And it's spectacular. So when people decide to take sort of this control of COVID into their own hands,

who do they begin to support as opposed to Lukashenko? I think it was very leaderless from the very beginning. But when electoral campaign was announced, YouTuber applied. Former banker, the CEO of Belgasprom Bank Viktor Babaryka also applied for presidency Valery Tzapkala, former peer and Lukashenko's mate applied for presidency what happens to all of them? they run, Lukashenko was very outraged with this

because no one can challenge him and now these guys, all of them are in prison or like Valery Tsiapkalo is on immigration. But when YouTuber Sergei Tikhanovsky, the guy who was recording video about the life of Belarusians, when they put him in custody and his wife, when Tikouskaya was arrested, she said, OK, if my husband is in jail, then I will apply documents on his behalf. And she applied. And she became the candidate. She is candidate by accident.

And what is her name? Her name is Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. She is housewife, English language teacher by training, never interested, involved in politics, absolutely new person in Belarus' social life. She became the symbol and also the ambassador of those who are in prison.

Everything is destroying step by step, very slowly, but destroying while our government, while people who are in the power, they are becoming richer, richer, richer and richer, yes. And after other candidates were not registered or put in jail, they decided to choose her as the unified opposition candidate. And this is how she became this hero for many Belarusians going to the streets nowadays. I'm sure that this year will be different than this year in a couple of days.

Our Central Commission will count properly because they see the mood of people. How unorthodox is it for a woman to run as the sort of savior of Belarus? Absolutely unique. There are many, many people saying about importance of involving females in politics, but no one really trusted women to lead. And this really made campaigns so powerful and so beautiful. Tsikhanouskaya surrounded herself with another wife of an imprisoned candidate and the chairman of Viktor Babaryka.

This female trio, we called them, they organized massive gatherings in provinces. Thousands of people showed up. 65,000 came in Minsk. That was the biggest protest since 1990, when Belarusians gathered to protest against Soviet Union for independence. And revolution by this became not only pro-democratic, it also became pro-female. I would even say female revolution. What was the campaign like? How did things go leading up to Sunday's election? How did Lukashenko treat his new opponent,

this leader of a female revolution in Belarus? Lukashenko doesn't believe female can do politics. He always said that a woman must be protecting her house and raising kids, and men must lead the country. Yes, it was a pretty popular opinion in the 90s when Lukashenko came to power. But Lukashenko didn't realize that now it's 2020, it's a different time. And these patriarchal, conservative views are not popular anymore. Okay, so how did the election go on Sunday? On Sunday morning, we found out that 43% already voted.

Sorry? On Sunday, those who didn't vote early, they came and they found that many of them voted already. What? Can you just imagine how observers were shocked? But when observers began to raise the concerns and asking what's going on, why it happened, police arrested observers. This is Belarus' democracy.

And what do things look like by Sunday night? Many people didn't manage to vote. Commissions were closed earlier. And people were waiting near the station, upset. The only thing they get, they got, there was the final protocol. Showed Lukashenko with more than 80% of votes. So basically what we have here is by Sunday night, you've got election observers being arrested throughout the country. You have people showing up to vote and finding out that they have already voted somehow.

So you've got widespread election fraud. And then in an election that you thought was going to be seriously contested, you've got an 80% landslide victory for Lukashenko. And that was the spark for the protest on the first day. In Belarus, an election turned violent almost as soon as the polling stations closed. Security forces used tear gas, stun grenades and rubber bullets after crowds poured onto the streets

in protest. On Sunday night, all these people were gathering in Minsk. They came there because of the exit poll results. You know, you're cheating us. What happened on Monday?

More people showed up, but all the downtown now on Monday was closed, was blocked. Soldiers were very aggressive this time. The special operation group of Belarusian KGB took the guns and began shooting. Rubber bullets, right? Yeah. And the people they shot were journalists. And friends of mine were wounded, injured.

They're still in hospital. Some of them disappeared after this. Authorities didn't want anyone to know what's happening. And you people were joining, and you were joining. So it was like police were not able to do anything with them. They were not able to arrest everyone. Protests on Monday lasted the whole night. And in some cities they continued even Tuesday morning.

We knew that hundreds are wounded. And we also knew that Tsikhanouskaya is not in Minsk already. Tsikhanouskaya, a presidential candidate, she left, she fled Belarus for Vilnius, Lithuania, which is nearby, it's a three-hour drive. She read the statement from the paper. I made a very difficult decision for myself, and I've made it absolutely independently.

The state TV channels and propaganda showed the video where Tsikhanouskaya says that... Many will understand me, many will denounce me, and many will hate me. But God forbid anyone should face the choice that I faced. Of course, she was speaking like a hostage and the text was not written by her for sure. The only question is what she was shown. My personal feeling is that she was shown perhaps the tortures over her husband in prison.

Perhaps she was offered the choice or the people will be shot and killed or she will flee. But she made the choice to leave. I think she was blackmailed with something we don't know and perhaps she will never tell us this. That's a very standard KGB tactic, you know, to give you two unacceptable choices. More with Frenak after the break. explained comes from Aura. Aura believes that sharing pictures is a great way to keep up with family. And Aura says it's never been easier thanks to their digital picture frames. They

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Terms and conditions do apply. Frenak, what do people who aren't terribly familiar with Belarus need to know to really understand everything that's going on there right now? First of all, Belarus is a strategically important country in the center of Europe. It was the epicentrum of most violent, brutal, deadly battles during the Stalin repressions and Hitler repressions as well. This is the country where the West and the East are meeting and clashing. In the Middle Ages, it was the biggest European empire, called Grand Duchy of Lithuania. But Belarus was divided between Poland and the Soviets in the 20th century. Belarus has its fantastic, unique culture.

It's half Baltic, half Slavic. In the Soviet time, it was Russified and Sovietized. Basically, Soviets and Russians took out our identity and made us similar to Russian. But later we, after 90s, after we got independence, we revived identity and we don't belong to Russian civilizations. And even if you travel,

you can see the city on Belarus side and on Russian side. This is where the border between Europe and Asia lays. So tell me, how long does Belarus have its independence before Lukashenko comes to power? The fact that it was three years only. Three years of very tough time for Belarus' economy. People were poor and they were looking for someone who will save them.

And Lukashenko, he said, I know the problem. It's because this capitalist, this rich guy, they took all your money. I will give you all back. And he re-nationalized all the companies. He built basically socialism again. He deprived people of possibility of having private property. After he came to power next year,

he dismissed the parliament and he gave the president the unlimited power. The next year after he was elected, he conducted a referendum, which was rigged as well. This referendum made Belarus presidential republic instead of parliamentary republic. And the first decision of Lukashenko after this referendum

was to dismiss parliament. And since then, he's the only one who can decide on everything. But does he ever have popular support or is he always sort of a repressive dictator? He was popular because of propaganda primarily, because he put all the opponents in jail, journalists in jail, you know. I was in jail four times during Lukashenko's era. Wow, I understand why you left this time.

Yes. How important is the relationship between Belarus and Russia over the past 26 years, over the course of Lukashenko's reign? Lukashenko dreamt of becoming the president of Russia. He came to power with the idea of creating a union state with Russia. He was extremely popular there. And in 1996, he declared a union with Russia with Yeltsin. And he hoped that Yeltsin will call him the follower, the continuator, not Putin. But Yeltsin chose Putin instead of Lukashenko, which made him frustrated.

And this is also the reason why Putin and Lukashenko have such a difficult relationship. What's the relationship like why Putin and Lukashenko have such a difficult relationship. What's the relationship like between Putin and Lukashenko? On one hand, they hate each other. On the other hand, they're symbiotic. And how did that work in this latest election? Putin was among the first who congratulated Lukashenko on the victory. Putin needs Lukashenko and he doesn't want any revolution in Belarus.

If revolution will happen in Belarus, pro-Western revolution as we see right now, then other regions in Russia will also rise. So despite the sort of contentious relationship between Putin and Lukashenko, Putin supports him because at least he's obedient? He's obedient, exactly. And he's predictable. They know each other.

They exist thanks to each other. You know, they're symbiotic organisms. So what does that mean for the next weeks and months? Was this election a total failure? Or did something significant and, you know, lasting transpire? For me, there is no doubt that this is the end of Lukashenko's regime. But it can take weeks, months and years. There are many variables, many factors. International reaction, the position of army and military, the elites.

If Lukashenko will continue keeping the situation under control and killing people on the streets, that can suppress, but also that can spark new protests and new revolts. Perhaps the revolution will happen not in Minsk, but in regions. We don't know. But it's definite Lukashenko will never get back to the previous situation. It will never be as it was before. You know, the red line is crossed. The issue is how to avoid more victims and how to facilitate and catalyze and speed up this process of power transit. Do you have any idea when you might be able to return to Belarus? That's a good question. I don't know. Everything is so unpredictable, so unclear, and it's difficult to say.

Well, I appreciate your time, and I wish you all the best, and I hope we can be in touch as this movement plays out, and maybe the reign of Lukashenko comes to an end. I hope so too. Thank you so much. Franak Viakora is a journalist who's usually based in Minsk, Belarus. This is Today Explained.