Today, Explained - The gas price vote

Episode Date: August 8, 2026

Will high gas prices actually change how people vote? We went to Pennsylvania to find out.  This show was edited by Kasia Broussalian, fact checked by Esther Gim, mixed by Shannon Mahoney, video edited by Christopher Snyder, and hosted by Astead Herndon. A customer refuels his van at a gas station in Boothwyn, Pennsylvania in July. Photo by Matthew Hatcher / AFP via Getty Images. You can also watch this episode on youtube.com/vox. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. New Vox members get $20 off their membership right now.  Read more about gas prices:  Why Gas Prices Hit Differenthttps://julianzelizer.substack.com/p/why-gas-prices-hit-different  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If there's anything we've heard about this entire summer, no matter where we go or who we talk to, it's about gas prices. Gas is, fuf, don't even get me started on gas. I don't even want to fill my gas thing no more. Okay, you see what a country at now. Yes, that's about $4 a gallon, you know? If you have one issue, you will one politicians to focus on, what would it be? Gas prices. Gas prices. Gas prices. It's bad. Gas prices are way up since the U.S. launched its war with Iran, but does a little pain at the palm. actually affect how people vote? And what if gas is still $4 come November?

Is that game over for Donald Trump and the Republicans? That's this week on America Actually. Let's begin. Are you a pet owner? Every six seconds, a pet owner in the U.S. gets hit with a vet bill over $1,000. Always an unwelcome surprise. That's where Fetch comes in.

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at Real Canadian Superstore, when you're ready, we're ready with a whole world and more. So for the last six months, people all across the country have talked to us a ton about gas prices. But it's been unclear, at least to this point, who they blame for the higher prices and whether the higher prices are going to affect their vote in the November midterm elections. The gasoline, the oil, will go down rapidly as soon as the war is over. President Trump has asked the American public to be patient with higher gas prices and has argued that they will go down as soon as the war with Iran is over, whenever that is. But the numbers will tell you, the American people's patience is growing thin with this administration. The average price of gas

has hovered around $4 since the spring and summer, and that's up a full dollar from where gas prices were just this February before the war with Iran started. But do gas prices actually affect how people vote in the November midterms? We went to an important congressional district in Pennsylvania to find out. I want to show you something, look at these gas prices. They're ridiculous. And they just keep going up. That's not good.

Later in the show, we talked to a presidential historian who tells us how much gas prices have mattered in elections in the past and puts our current moment into context. We're on our way to Allentown, Pennsylvania, which is the biggest city in Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district. Now, Pennsylvania 7th is one of the most competitive districts in the country. and it's in a region of the state, eastern Pennsylvania, that has several critical congressional districts when it comes to who's going to control

the House in November. So why not go to some gas stations in Allentown and ask people how much are gas prices affecting their wallet and how much will affect who they vote for in November? Let's go. Now, we've heard a lot of people talking about gas prices this summer. Have those been on your radar? Like, on a scale of 1 to 10,

How would you rate how much they've affected your wallet this summer? A lot. I don't drive as much. Now, when we think about gas prices, like, who do you blame for it going up so much? I blame this government for everything. You blame the president. I blame the president because he indicated to us he's going to drop all these costs. I know it can't happen overnight, but when is it going to happen?

It's outrageous. Did you vote for him to cast? Yes, I did. And did you vote for him on the premise that stuff like gas would be lower? I voted for him with his promises to American people. And I think he's let us down. Which would you say is the biggest broken promise for you?

Like, what gives you the sense of letdown? Is it the prices? The prices, the controlling of the prices. Got it. Has skyrocketed. And I just feel it's not fair to those retired people and younger people, we can't survive.

Tell me how it's affected your life. Well, vacation-wise, being retired, the wife and I, we'd like to go on vacation. Not expensive ones, but the budget for that, I have to take away from utility bills, oil bills, medical bills. I have to just take away. My main objective is roof over our head, pay our bills, and then what's left.

But there's hardly anything left, if anything. Yeah. My last question would be like, you mentioned Trump. Now, does this affect how you think about Republicans going forward? Like, we have a midterm election coming up. We have other things. Or do you think this is just the fault of the people in there right now? I really don't know which way to go or what to do. Uh-huh. You kill torn. Who is telling the truth? Uh-huh. And who is going to represent us and do something about it? Talk is cheap. Uh-huh. But let's do something about it. What would be the number one thing you will want either party to do? Price control. Prices. Yes. Got it. Are you someone who votes? Yes, I do vote. Do things like gas prices affect how you think about who you're going to vote for? I mean, at the end of the day, I mean, I'm not driving to the White House, but gas prices is something that needs to be reflected on

because it's a daily essential in everybody's lives. Do you mind if they film? No, not at all. Great. When you think about the reasons why they've gone up, is there anybody that you blame for the rise in gas prices? Well, we all know. It's the crisis in the Middle East.

We know that. If you could rate what's at the top of your priority list when you make a choice between D and R, as someone who says they're in the middle, what is at the height of what helps you make that decision? What's the top of your priority list? The economy, basically, yes. And what does that mean to you? Like, housing, gas, like what piece of the economy? Because that's a big thing. Well, that is all.

It's all. It's all. It's all of it. When we say gas prices, what's the first thing that comes to your mind? that comes to your mind? You say gas prices, I mean, essential. We all drive. We don't have public transportation in this area, so we're all subjected to the price of what

it's going to be. And this summer, it's moved a lot. Has it changed how you going to go about your life or work because gas prices have gone up? I would say if the situations were different and we actually had like public transportation, it probably would. But since I have to commute to work every single day, I have to pay my bills. I have to pay the gas. You have no other option?

Have no other option. Is anyone we blame for the rise of gas prices? I didn't think it's a pretty obvious answer to that. You tell me. I mean, look at the way that things have gone since February. I think you can make a contrast to how things went back in 2022 when we went to, well, we didn't go to war with Ukraine, but when Ukraine went to got attacked by Russia. Yeah, the last time we saw that kind of big gas. So how should we think about this?

President Trump told us he was going to lower gas prices. He told us he was going to lower grocery bills. And here we are with higher gas like a year or so in. And I don't know if you're someone who voted for him or supported him, but I'm like, what should we think about that contradiction? Oh, he's a complete fraud. You know what I mean? You're like, that's how you think about it. I mean, it's obvious.

I mean, I'm not going to sit here and say that, I mean, I think that we have President Trump as a direct result of some of the past administrations and just sheer unhappiness with the way that things are going or the things that way that things went. And I think that now President Trump is a consequence of maybe being okay with status quo for too long. But I think it's quite obvious now at this point that, I mean, the jig is up and that we're clearly not being represented by Somebody who has our best interests The last thing I would say is when you look ahead is there anything is there like do you do you think Democrats help things like gas prices? Like do you have any confidence in anybody in the landscape to say hey if this person was in office? Things would be different I would say it depends who their funding's coming from because I don't the biggest thing for you I don't think it matters if there's a Democrat or Republican, if they're taking money from lobbies like A-PAC.

You gotta wonder, you know, the party doesn't seem to matter. It's like, you know, are they get, who is their campaign financing coming from? Is it a real grassroots, you know, campaign where they're actually getting donations from people rather than big packs, big corporations? Rather than looking at D or R, you're looking at where does your money come from from and are you going to fight for little guys? 100%. Are you from Allentown?

You from around here? Allentown. I get a lot of it right now is because of the war. Yeah. But I just saw this morning on the news. on the news that oil prices have gone down. So that's a good sign. Yeah.

It is being linked to the war. Now, is that something that you're willing to pay a higher price for the cost of what, you know, the president's saying is trying to make some people say? Yes, because our president is actually doing something about Iran. He's not, you know, he's not sugarcoating it. It's something we need to do. And in the long run, it's going to be better for everybody. And I just want to be clear, and that's something you're willing to pay a higher gas price for?

Yes. Does that have a timeline? Does that willingness run out at any point? If those prices are still high come the end of the summer, into the year, like, will you feel the same? Yes, because I feel, you know, as long as it takes, we need to, we need to make sure Iran doesn't make a nuclear bomb or anything like that. You know, we have to look out for America and this president's doing that. Okay. It's been going up all summer.

has it changed the way you go about your job or your life, how you all get around? It does. It does. It does, because I drive, I do deliveries for a living. And I got to put plus on my other vehicle. And that's more expensive, $5, look at. And you're saying because you have to put the plus in the vehicle

and as that has gone up, it's changed how you have to drive around? Yeah, yeah, I really don't go nowhere. Mm-hmm. Who do you blame for those higher prices? The government. So we just finished talking to people in gas station, stations in Allentown, Pennsylvania, the central seat of Pennsylvania's 7th congressional districts. And we heard everything, a universal agreement that gas prices are too high and it's

affecting folks' lives, but also a blame centrally on the president, even though we heard a couple people who defend them. But let's put this all into context and understand how gas prices affects this November election and 2028 by talking to economists and an historian Julian Zelizer. We're going to do that back in New York, though. Let's do it. for this show comes from MintMobile. Some of the best things happen during the summer, and MintMobile's summer sale is one of them. Right now, all of Mint's plans are just $15 a month.

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That's Shopify.com slash America Actually. Shopify.com slash America Actually. actually. Hey, y'all. It's Kelly Clarkson with Wayfair. Ever order furniture online and wonder what if? Like, what if it doesn't hold up? That sofa was four days old. You should have ordered from Wayfair. With Wayfair, there's no what if. Just style you love and quality you can trust. Visit Wayfair. Wayfair, every style, every home. Dr. Julian Zelliser, thank you for joining us. We appreciate your time. How are you?

It's a pleasure to be with you. I'm doing well. I wanted to talk to you because we were just in Pennsylvania talking to people about gats. prices and how it affects their vote. And I know you're someone who has looked at that historically, how gas prices impact presidencies. And even more recently, on your substack where you wrote about why gas prices hit different, a good topic for us today. I wanted to start by looking backwards, though. Like, when did the price of gas become such a political weapon in America? Does this date all the way back to the Model T? No, it really dates to the 1970s. That's when the United States, of two energy crises in 1973 and 1979. And the price of gas becomes a huge political issue for Americans.

It affects presidents. It affects Congress. And it becomes a manifestation in that decade of the problems facing the country. So I think that's when we start to realize we don't have unlimited resources. And it's going to be a political problem. Can you go on more detail about that? Like, for those unfamiliar, what happened in the 70s to make it so clear to Americans, oh, this party might not last forever? Well, production of oil here peaks in the late 1960s, early 1970s. And then in 1973, OPEC, which is the cartel of oil producing countries in the Middle East, imposes an embargo on the U.S. because the United States had supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War. And as a result of the embargo, prices go up. and supplies go down. And that's when Americans start to face gas lines.

They start to face different kinds of rations. And politicians need to deal with this. And then in 1979, we have another round of this after the Iranian revolution. And that leads to even bigger gas lines and more stringent rations and government mandates in 79. And many people think it really helped bring down Jimmy Carter's presidency. Yeah, I was going to ask that. Should we think about Jimmy Carter as the first? president whose election loss can be blamed on gas prices? Yeah, I mean, it could have been Richard Nixon,

but other things brought him down in 1974. Although it was certainly part of the problem, but Carter, yes. I mean, Carter in 1979, it's in the summer of 79, is really reeling from what Americans experience. And it's not simply gas prices. It's waiting in line for gas. It's hearing that you could only buy gas on certain days. It's reading stories about people stealing gas and violent clashes occurring over getting this commodity. And so there's a lot of things that go into the mix with Carter, the hostages in Iran. But certainly his difficulty dealing with this fundamental is a big part of what happens in 1980 when Reagan wins the presidency. Important. I want to ask also, though, about what looms over this, because of course, presidents have

little control over the global price of oil, yet they are blamed for it seemingly every time. you're tracking kind of history of this issue, how have politicians and particularly presidents dealt with that reality, considering the price of the pump is so important to their political futures while not always in their control? Well, in the 70s, they tried with legislation. Jimmy Carter pushes legislation that deals with energy. But it's limited in its success. Americans won a lot of oil, and it was hard to get them to conserve. He put solar panels on the White House. There's really not much presidents can do. We have the strategic reserves.

And other than that, I think presidents just waded out and hope the timing works in their favor and the gas prices go down again. Is there an example of a president who beat the gas prices trap? I want to ask kind of a counterintuitive question. Like, do we have any example of someone successfully convincing the country, hey, look away from the price of the pump? No, I think we have presidents who say, just look away for a little. little while. And when re-election comes around again, they're doing better. Even, I mean, even President George W. Bush struggled with some of this after 9-11 and after the war started. But in the end, he doesn't make an announcement about it so much as focus on other issues such as national security.

And now we see how prices fluctuate. So you just, you wait for those moments. They're taking the stall tactic mostly. I want to ask before we get to what's happening this summer, why do we think it's such an importance about gas specific? Of course, we hear about groceries, but it's not like we hear about other consumer goods as much. You know, I personally think that the economy went to crap after the McDonald's dollar menu went away. But like, why is it always gasoline rather than those other commodities when we think about the priorities for the electorate? Well, I think there's a few things. One is that historically, the automobile really symbolizes American freedom and American consumption.

and so when something impinges in our ability to drive a lot, I think Americans. We love our cars. Second, it's a price you just see. It's just very visible when it goes up or down, more than groceries even. And I think that kind of recurring image for people becomes very politically potent if that number gets too high. So it's a real struggle, but it's also symbolically right in front of us. And these days, I think even more so now than in the 70s or 80s, it's become something that the reporters and the media track oil prices. So it's like stocks, but something that more people consume than the stocks.

Right, right, right. You could just be driving past the gas station to get your sticker shock. You don't need to be in the Walmart or in said McDonald's to recognize that things have gone up. You don't even have to be buying gas. You can literally drive by it. I want to then talk specifically about this summer. We've crossed $4 a gallon again this summer, the highest since 2022. And this time it's pretty clearly tied with the ongoing war in Iran.

Donald Trump has tried to make the argument that some short-term pain that the pump is worth a long-term national security focus. But his energy secretary said pretty clearly that gas won't be back to $3 until 2027. Obviously, that puts us after the midterm elections. It sounds like he's running the exact playbook you just told me has never worked, which is to get people to just pretend this is not happening. I mean, what have you thought about how the president has handled the spike in gas prices since this summer? I mean, in part, it strikes me as a president who doesn't really care about the fate of his party.

I think it is a big issue. I think most Republicans understand that. And it's tied, I mean, another problem to add to the prices being up and staying up, it's tied to a war that really doesn't have public support. It's a war without the kind of clarity, even that many people felt after 9-11 with Afghanistan and Iraq for a while. And so it's the worst of all worlds. And so I think he's really fumbled on this issue.

And there was part of him that hope people either wouldn't care, even if they noticed, or somehow the prices would diminish. But it's certainly not looking that way. Yeah, yeah, certainly. I mean, I wanted to ask about Biden because in 20, The Biden administration saw record highs in gas prices, also somewhat due to a foreign conflict, Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And it sort of felt like the perception of Biden's handling of the economy never really recovered after that. What lessons could the Trump administration take from the administration just before them in terms of how to handle the political quagmire that is gas prices?

Yeah, Alad, you remember some of Biden's opponents put stickers on gas prices. that said, you know, this is Biden's fault. Look, I think the most important is you can't deny the reality that Americans feel, even in an age of disinformation and hard to follow news flows, people see what they're paying. And I think, you know, Trump trying to not recognize what people are struggling with and then to ignore the severity of it, both of which some people think Biden did with gas and other parts of the economy. It's just not a winning strategy. Okay, I want to ask a couple of forward-looking ones as we close out here.

Like, okay, it's August. We've seen where the prices are now come November. If gas is still $4 or higher, is the GOP doomed? They're not doomed. And I think the fears of, you know, election administration is the counter to what we're talking about. But look, if the election is done well and all those votes are counted, I think, yes, this will be, in addition of some other issues, extraordinarily damaging to the GOP. And it would be part of potentially a wave election.

Yeah. I wanted to ask, is there any risk for Democrats for campaigning so closely on gas prices? Like, as you mentioned, it fluctuates from administration and administration. Presidents don't seem to have all that control over it. Legislation doesn't seem to have that much control over it. Is there any risk in saying, hey, he's made your gas prices go up when the next Democratic president or the next Democratic Congress may not be able to stop that. It's an even shorter term risk.

I mean, any kind of fluctuation downward. You don't know where it will be undercuts that argument to a certain extent, even if it's temporary. And secondly, look, that kind of anger about the economy can manifest itself and to throw the bums out mentality for voters, meaning everyone's at risk. So vulnerable Democrats might feel the ire of voters paying higher price. as much as the Republicans in the midterm. So there are risks, of course. Yeah, it seems like we're seeing some of those risks, too, because when they say throw the

bums out, that might not just be Republicans. That might include some Democrats. And we're seeing some of the Democratic electorate seemingly loop them both into that group. No, it's true. You can't control moments of great electoral unrest. That was true in the 70s, where both parties ended up really suffering as a result of economic problems, oil and others. And also, look, going into 2028, there will be at some level as I hear candidates say what they're going to do. I mean, it's not enough to say prices are too high. It's not enough to say prices are too high right now because of Iran. Democrats will have to make a case, as Biden tried to do with alternative energy and electric cars of here's a way that

we don't have to keep facing this every few years. Not just the short term identifying with folks paying, but a long-term solution. Exactly. And I think that would be a compelling argument given how important this has now become to dragging down Republican support. The last question I have is, you know, you have argued that the president may matter a little less than we think. And that certainly feels true when we talk about the issue of gas prices. But Donald Trump seems to challenge that thesis a little bit, like his willingness to push the boundaries on executive power, attacks on Congress and the courts, even what we're seeing in terms of Iran, it feels like one. guy has reshaped so much of our political scene that I wanted to ask you. Like, is there anything about the Trump year, specifically Trump too, that challenges that thesis? Are we seeing a president who is uniquely important, even if others have been more controlled by structures? Look, presidents have been increasingly powerful since the early 20th century. That's why we talk

about an imperial presidency. They have executive authority. They have the ability to send troops without declarations of war, et cetera, et cetera. But there are limits. I mean, President Trump is very explicitly avoided legislation. He has put very little on the books, and a lot of what he can do can quickly be undone. And I think the lesson in Iran right now is also the limits of what he can do. He has a lot of bluster. He has controlled what is happening on the end of the U.S., but he can't bring this to an end.

I'm sure he would love to have this over. So in some ways it reflects the limitations of the power that he might not see affect him as much as others. Yeah, yeah, yeah. For all his power, he can't go take Greenland, much to his frustration. Correct. And look, you know, his power, this is another important part, rests on congressional Republicans giving him that power. Yeah. It's not simply that they've given up on that power. So he has a party that supports him. And so if the midterms change that equation, he would be, as he was in 2019, in a much more vulnerable situation. Important to know. Thank you so much for joining us.

We appreciate this historical context and the long look at the political effect of gas prices. Thanks for having me. A pleasure to talk to you. So after heading to Pennsylvania and talking with Julian, a couple things stick out to me most clearly. It doesn't take a historian for people to know who to blame for $4. gas. Whether you were a Trump hater or a Trump lover, every single person we talked to knew that the higher gas prices were a direct consequence of the U.S.'s war with Iran. This was the administration's doing, and everybody knew it. Plus, based on my reporting, I think that you can see why gas prices,

maybe more than any other issue, have been a clear reason why Donald Trump's approval rating is in the toilet. Confidence in his economic leadership has collapsed in his second. term. And being out in Pennsylvania, I think you can see why. They weren't just blaming the high gas prices on the president individually, but on a Republican party that they feel has given him car blanche to execute a war they don't feel is an American's interest, and they're the ones paying for. America actually will be in your feeds every Saturday with an interesting interview in culture or politics. And you could also watch these episodes on the Vox YouTube channel. Just go to YouTube.

or click the link in the show notes. The best way to support this show is by becoming a Vox member. Members get a bonus segment on Patreon every week, and they make our work possible. Just go to Vox.com slash members to join. That's Vox.com slash members to join. This show was edited by Kasha Brassolian, fact checked by Esther Gim and mixed by Shannon Mahoney.

Christopher Snyder is our video editor, and Kuh Nui is our senior art director. Our executive producer is Christina Vassau. Dallas. And our theme music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Additional support from Miranda, David Tadashore, and Nisha Chittal. I'm Estead Herndon, and this is America Actually. Hey y'all, it's Kelly Clarkson with Wayfair. Ever order furniture online and wonder what if? Like, what if it doesn't hold up? That sofa was four days old. You should have ordered from Wayfair. With Wayfair, there's no what if. Just style you love and quality you can trust. Visit Wayfair.ca.