Today, Explained - The rehabilitation of Bashar al-Assad

Episode Date: May 22, 2023

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad became a regional pariah after brutal crackdowns on his own citizens. But on Friday, the most powerful men in the Middle East welcomed him back into the Arab League. This episode was produced by Avishay Artsy and Haleema Shah, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Matt Collette and Laura Bullard, engineered by Patrick Boyd, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What if you waited all week for a big get-together on Friday, you hopped on a plane first thing in the morning, touched down, put on your best fit, arrive, and then boom. Literally, one of the worst people in the world walks into the room. You might have been at the Arab League summit in Saudi Arabia, where Bashar al-Assad made his big return on Friday. It's with pleasure today that Dr. Bashar al-Assad made his big return on Friday. It's with pleasure today that Dr. Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria, is present here, as the League of Arab States has handed down a resolution allowing Syria to resume involvement

in our meetings. And it's not just the Arab League. He's been invited to COP28 in Dubai later this year. The rehabilitation of Syria's war criminal chemical weapon using president. Coming up on Today Explained. The all new FanDuel Sportsbook and Casino is bringing you more action than ever. Want more ways to follow your faves? Check out our new player prop tracking with real-time notifications. Or how about more ways to customize your casino page

with our new favorite and recently played games tabs? And to top it all off, quick and secure withdrawals. Get more everything with FanDuel Sportsbook and Casino. Gambling problem? Call 1-866-531-2600. Visit connectsontario.ca. Today Explained featuring Lina Khatib. She's the director of the SOAS Middle East Institute in London. It's a think tank affiliated with the University of London.

We asked her how big a deal it was that the Arab League welcomed back Bashar al-Assad on Friday. Being invited to the Arab League summit is a big deal for Bashar al-Assad because this is a milestone about legitimacy and recognition for him. Stepping off a plane in Jeddah, Bashar al-Assad was greeted with handshakes and smiles. Once a pariah among the Arab League, the 22-member countries are welcoming the Syrian president back. You have a president who had been isolated in the international community, isolated in the Arab world, and finally he is back in the Arab fold with no conditions whatsoever.

And so for him, this can be counted as a political victory. When exactly did he get isolated? Could you remind us? So the Syrian war did not start as a war. Of course, in 2011, the situation in Syria was one of peaceful protests criticizing the regime. But the regime cracked down with violence on protesters. My name is Wael Sawah. I am a Syrian-American writer and researcher. When the uprising broke in Syria, actually, we were all taken by surprise. For me and many of my generation, we were older generation, of course,

we were watching what was happening. We were very pleased, but also we had our concern because we lived under both Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad. The family governed the country with an iron fist. And Saudi Arabia actually was one of the first Arab countries to condemn the violent crackdown of Bashar al-Assad in 2011. We had a sit-in, a vigil, and we were calling for the release of our friends and colleagues. I remember another university professor who was in his mid-70s, actually, who were beaten and dragged into the police van. My good friend, Rezan Zeytounii also was dragged from her hair and was pushed into the van.

Many of them were taken outside of the city and dropped in the open. And they had to walk back to their homes. But those were the lucky people only. The unlucky people had to go to the detention center and had to receive their portion of torture. By 2012, Assad's diplomatic relations with Arab countries started being severed one by one, and he was, as in Syria, was kicked out of the Arab League. He always had Russia on his side, I guess, but how isolated did he get? Assad got pretty isolated because in addition to being kicked out of the Arab League, and by this I mean Syria's membership was suspended,

you also had Western countries withdrawing their ambassadors, closing their embassies. The United States expelled the Syrian-Sharjah affair, Berlin and Rome made similar decisions along with London. And so Assad found himself with just few backers in the Middle East and very, very few engagements in the world at large, apart from some rogue states. And so I would say the international isolation was pretty significant and severe. The United States, the European countries, and many Arab countries called for Assad to step down. It did mean something to me and to many other Syrians. We were very optimistic that calling on Assad to step down or announcing Assad as a president who lost the legitimacy of ruling

the country would eventually convince Assad to step down. International isolation for Syria meant that Assad was no longer regarded as the legitimate leader of Syria in most countries, I would say, in the world. It meant economic isolation because the European Union and the United States, for example, began to impose sanctions on the Assad regime and people affiliated with the Assad regime, as well as businesses linked to the Assad regime. European leaders meeting in Brussels were determined to send a very personal message with these latest sanctions. The Syrian president's wife will face travel bans and her assets will be frozen.

His mother and sister are also targeted. So you had political isolation, economic isolation, and of course various attempts at political transition in Syria that ultimately aimed at removing Assad from power. And he had to tackle all those things with the help of the Russians and the Iranians. And so did something change in the past year, in the past six months? Why is it that all of a sudden Middle Eastern countries are saying, let's open up relations with Bashar al-Assad again. Let's open up relations with Syria. What happened is, over the years,

all this isolation that Assad was subjected to politically was not enough to remove him from power. In the U.S. in particular, there was no diplomatic effort to really try to get rid of Assad. People may remember that President Obama had said, The use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable. And if you make the tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences and you will be held accountable. But when that red line was crossed because the Assad regime did use chemical weapons,

the U.S. did not really react. There were no repercussions for Assad. And in a way, this lost the United States a lot of credibility in the Middle East. It lost the United States' credibility in the eyes of Assad himself, who started believing that actually the West did not really want him to leave, unlike what President Obama had literally said, that basically Assad must go.

We will continue to support the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people, engaging with the opposition, providing them with humanitarian aid, and working for a transition to a Syria that's free of the Assad regime. And over the years, the U.S. became much more concerned with, under Obama, with Iran and trying to have a nuclear deal signed with Iran. Because of this deal, the international community will be able to verify

that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not develop a nuclear weapon. And Gulf countries, in particular Saudi Arabia, felt let down that the U.S. was prioritizing signing a nuclear deal with Iran rather than trying to deal with Iran's regional role, such as its support for Assad. So you have an accumulation of factors over the years that led Arab countries, in particular Saudi Arabia, to feel that changing the regime in Syria is not a possibility anymore. The UN peace process was not leading in that direction. Iran was getting stronger and stronger in the region. And Saudi Arabia felt that it had no choice but to try to de-escalate tension instead of trying to get rid of Assad because they felt this is now impossible. So that is why he's been invited back

into the Arab League. This is just a move to try to lower tensions in the region. When I saw Assad descend from his plane and met by the Saudi senior officials, when I saw him sit in the meeting and address the other presidents, when I saw the Saudi officials welcome him adoringly. I was appalled. I was distressed. I was depressed. I was angry and sad at the same time. And so was more than 60% of the Syrian people. We had the feeling that we were let down by the very governments which funded the opposition

to become an armed opposition. And now they receive Assad as a hero. For a while, when debate about readmitting Syria into the Arab League was going on, there was talk amongst Arab states, Arab leaders, that there could be some conditions. But what happened is Assad has been readmitted with no conditions whatsoever. Of course, you will read many analyses and articles that there are hidden conditions that Assad will have to change his attitude. But it is too late.

I mean, what happens now if Assad does not give any concession? Do you think the Arab leaders will expel him from the Arab League again? No way. What's done is done. Instead, what would have been conditions have now been transformed into issues for cooperation between Arab states and Syria. So when you say these are issues and not conditions, Assad is under no obligation to deliver on any of them. What are the issues? The peace process led by the UN, which Assad never really cooperated on anyway, and is not going to cooperate now because the peace process means political transition and he's not going to give up power. Second issue is the issue of refugees. Currently,

there are six and a half million Syrian refugees in the world. Assad does not want them back, really. So again, trying to imagine a scenario in which Assad is cooperating on refugee return is, I think, a fantasy. The third issue is that of detainees. There are many people who have disappeared and who are detained in Syria. And again, Assad is not going to suddenly tell us where they are because he doesn't want to be held accountable for their disappearance and detention. And then you have the issue of the drug trade, mainly the drug Captagon. It's a kind of amphetamine and Syria has become the leading place for the trade of Captagon and manufacturing of Captagon in the world. In Dar al-Taza, in northwestern Syria, rebels from the Hayat al-Tahrir al-Sham group are seizing

drugs at the border crossing. With this criminal industry valued in the billions of dollars, some are now asking if we are seeing the rise of a new Middle Eastern narco state. So, again, this is a very lucrative source of funding for the Assad regime. And again, it's not likely to just suddenly give that up. And the final issue is that of militias backed by Iran that are running the show in many places in Syria, including being involved in the Captagon trade, in particular, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah.

In recent months, the militant Shiite Muslim group has thrown its support behind Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Fighting alongside the Syrian army, Hezbollah has helped them to win key victories against the Syrian rebels. Again, Assad is not going to suddenly give up on these allies that have kept him in power and are helping him make this money from the drug trade. Has Bashar al-Assad ever apologized, Lina? He has never apologized and he has never admitted doing anything wrong.

Do you feel guilty? I did my best to protect the people. So you cannot feel guilty when you do your best. You feel sorry for the life that has been lost. But you don't feel guilty when you don't kill people. He has always been consistent that in his view, there was never an uprising in Syria. There was an attempt by terrorists to destabilize Syria. And all he is doing, in his view, is protect Syria from terrorists.

So he labels anyone who opposes him a terrorist and presents himself as defending Syria from danger. Lina's back when we're back on Today Explained comes from Ramp. Ramp is the corporate card and spend management software designed to help you save time and put money back in your pocket. Ramp says they give finance teams unprecedented control and insight into company spend. With Ramp, you're able to issue cards to every employee with limits and restrictions and automate expense reporting

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with iGaming Ontario. Today Explained is back with Lina Khatib. Bashar al-Assad is back in the Arab League. He's getting hugged. We asked Lina what leaders have to gain from engaging with this dude on a global stage. Assad is not going to take any meaningful action. All they will achieve is de-escalation. They just want to kind of keep Assad out of their list of issues to worry about because they have

other things to worry about. So that is it really. Sadly, it's not much more than that. I mean, they just want, in the case of Jordan, maybe to have their borders quietened down a little bit. Are there countries in the Arab League that oppose al-Assad rejoining? Absolutely. Qatar says it has no plans to embrace al-Assad, who's blamed for the deaths of tens of thousands of his own people and the displacement of many, many more. Doha is instead seeking to unite the Syrian opposition. It continues to support the Syrian opposition

in northwest Syria and around the world, actually. And it has declared very clearly that although it will not stand in the way of Syria's readmission into the Arab League, its own bilateral relations with Syria will remain as they had been before, meaning no diplomatic ties with Assad whatsoever and no recognition of the legitimacy of Assad as president of Syria. Are other countries around the world mad at the Arab League for admitting this known war criminal back into the fold? Maybe the United States, I don't know, Western nations? Yes, absolutely. The UK is disappointed with this move. The United States has also insisted that it still wants political transition according to the UN peace process to happen and that sanctions imposed by the US on the Assad regime are not going to be lifted.

We have made clear to all of our partners that Syria does not merit readmission into the Arab League. And we continue to believe that we will not normalize our relations with the Assad regimes and we don't support our allies and partners doing so either. So when it comes to the European nations and the United States, it's business as usual. Assad is still not regarded as legitimate. The European Union is there standing for the Syrian people and for the rights of Syrian people. And we will continue to support the mechanism of international accountability for all the horrors that happen from the side of the regime supported by Russia in Syria against the Syrian people. Is there a precedent for this, for letting a known war criminal, you know, just sort of get a pass and just be welcomed back into the fold?

I mean, regionally and chemically, Saddam Hussein comes to mind. Unfortunately, when it comes to politics, we are now in a world in which pragmatism rules rather than values. And when it comes to the Arab League in particular, many members of the Arab League are authoritarian regimes. They are not democracies. And so this issue of accountability is not absolute in this kind of context. So here you have Saddam Hussein, for example, who was obviously a criminal and yet was never actually condemned very widely in the Arab world, despite, for example, his invasion of Kuwait and other actions, you know, against the Kurds, etc. He was a ruthless dictator. He used savage methods against his own people, including gassing 5,000 Iraqi Kurds at Halabja. So he was not absolutely isolated despite those actions. Omar al-Bashir of Sudan is another example. Al-Bashir was the only serving head

of state to be indicted for war crimes. The International Criminal Court in The Hague issued two arrest warrants. The charges stem from the war in Darfur. So unfortunately, the situation of Bashar al-Assad is not the first time that this kind of scenario happens. But definitely Bashar al-Assad, I would say, is perhaps one of the most brutal. I mean, he ranks up there with Saddam Hussein, if not even higher up in terms of the extent of the brutality he has inflicted on his people. And where do we go from here? I believe Bashar al-Assad has also been invited to the Climate Summit COP28 in Dubai this November, December. Is he going to be standing on some stage next to Joe Biden?

And what would that mean for him? Just total legitimization? Well, for Bashar al-Assad, he would love nothing more than a photo op with Joe Biden or the prime minister of the UK or the king or any real Western leader who he can basically stand next to in that context and say, I am here. You have to accept me as the de facto winner in the Syrian conflict. The invitation to COP28 came really to suit the agenda of the United Arab Emirates, which is the host of COP28, to show the political clout that the UAE has. Of course, Assad is relishing the moment. He will do his best to use it as an opportunity to re-enter the international community, not just the Arab League. So it will be a further step for him towards normalization at large. But this is, of course, going to make many Western leaders uncomfortable because they will not want a photo op with Bashar al-Assad, that's for sure.

There are a lot of bad dudes in the world. He's among the baddest. But what does this just say for all the bad dudes? That you can just abuse human rights conventions, the Geneva Conventions with impunity, and just wait it out for a while, and then just, I don't know, by inertia, be welcomed back into global politics?

I mean, unfortunately, this sets a really bad precedent. Considering all the harsh words said about Assad, considering the documentation of the crimes inflicted by Assad, this is why the U.S., for example, created this Caesar Act. They're known as Caesar's photographs, named after a military defector who documented torture and killings in Syrian government jails. His testimonies to the U.S. Congress was part of a campaign to hold the regime responsible for what have been described as war crimes.

It led to the passing and now the implementation of a bill in the U.S., the so-called Caesar Act. So here we have hard evidence about the brutality of this regime. And yes, this president is being readmitted into the Arab League and some countries in the world, even in the West, are saying maybe we should just be pragmatic and turn a blind eye, unfortunately. What does this tell us about, say, the Russia-Ukraine situation?

Are we going to suddenly see Vladimir Putin re-embraced further down the line in the same way? I think the way Assad is being handled sets a really dangerous precedent for the world at large because it gives people like Vladimir Putin hope that one day they can be back. Lina Khatib directs the SOAS Middle East Institute in London. You also heard from Wael Suwa. He's a writer, researcher, and the editor-in-chief of the Syrian Observer. Avishai Artsy and Halima Shah produced today's show with help from Amin al-Sadi, Matthew Collette, Laura Bullard, and Patrick Boyd.

I'm Sean Ramos-Verm. This is Today Explained. Thank you.