Today, Explained - The renegade general

Episode Date: July 9, 2019

Libya’s ongoing civil war has escalated into one of its bloodiest moments yet—the bombing of a migrant detention center in Tripoli. Analyst Anas El Gomati explains why the likeliest culprit is a rogue Libyan general who worked with the CIA and once launched a coup online. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's the most reported casualties in a strike since forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar launched an offensive on the capital three months ago. An airstrike at a migrant center killed at least 40 civilians and wounded more than 100 others. This is the migrants detention center in Tajoura neighborhood in the eastern suburb of the Libyan capital Tripoli. It has just been hit by an airstrike. Dead bodies are still under the rubble. It's an unthinkable development in a situation that was already completely desperate. The victims are among tens of thousands of Africans

hoping to cross the Mediterranean Sea to start a new life in Europe. The UN's special envoy to Libya is calling it a war crime. Libya's been at war with itself for years, but this, this attack on a migrant detention center, is the bloodiest escalation. So this actually comes on the back of a different set of operations that have been taking place over the last three and a half months.

We're almost at the 100-day mark now. Two opposing forces are fighting for control in Libya. There's the UN-backed Government of National Accord, or the GNA, in the West. And then there's General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army in the East. Khalifa Haftar, who launched the offensive on Tripoli to unseat the UN-backed government of National Accord, the GNA, that government has been using armed groups and fighting forces to try and push Haftar back. Enes El Gomati is the founder and director of the SADC Institute. It's Libya's first think tank.

Most fingers are currently pointing at Khalifa Haftar for this attack on the migrant detention center. So I asked Enes if Haftar is owned up to it. Well, he hasn't taken responsibility before for airstrikes that kill civilians. And much of Haftar's rhetoric is about liberating the capital. And so Khalifa Haftar does rhetoric is about liberating the capital. And so Khalifa Haftar does not want to be seen as targeting them, because it would irk and upset or anger the European Union, which is, you know, a key partner in Libya's neighborhood. But it would also just

sort of, it would tarnish his reputation as a liberator. But we're waiting for an investigation or an investigation before anyone conclusively says which of the armed groups or which of the fighting forces were behind this or responsible for it. Assuming that Haftar did this, do you think killing migrants was the point or was that an accident? I think that Khalifa Haftar views them as collateral damage. I also think that he views the civilian population of Tripoli as collateral damage. He has an aim and an objective aim to try to unseat that capital or the government in Tripoli, and he wants to replace them and use a military regime to replace it with them. That's his aim. And I think

everything else is a sideshow, is a footnote in comparison to his main objective. Libya's Arab Spring was all about getting rid of its last military dictator, Gaddafi. How did another military guy like Haftar get to be so powerful? Since 2011, there has been a democratic election in Libya. In 2012, the electorate came out and had a lot of trust in that moment and a lot of hope in what it would achieve. This is what all of the fighting in Libya was about last year. Not just the removal of Gaddafi, but the chance to choose a democratically elected government.

It was largely representative of all the different regions in Libya, all the different political factions in Libya. And the central question came down to having so many different groups, so many different parties, so many different ideas in one venue. And that competitive process was not only linked to just Libyans, but also to international barriers. And some of them felt that they wanted to exploit the process to select perhaps the next head of state in Libya.

Others felt scared that a pluralistic, democratic or civilian government that succeeded in Libya, which is an oil-producing country, could turn the minds and hearts and attentions of their own population, particularly in the Gulf. The UAE and Saudi Arabia felt a degree of hostility and fear existentially towards the Arab Spring. But the election still happens. Mahmoud Jibril led the National Transitional Council during the war. Now his National Forces Alliance seems to be winning the contest for party seats by a landslide. What happens after the election? By 2014, which was the end of the expiration date of Libya's first elected parliament,

Khalifa Haftar launched a coup that no one turned up to. In fact, he actually came on YouTube and became the first person, to my knowledge in history, to ever launch a coup on YouTube. It was so badly planned. He didn't have any army officers with him. You normally take over the state television apparatus and you inform the public on TV that you're in charge. He had no power to do so and decided that he would launch a coup Arab Spring style by launching it on YouTube in the hope that it would go viral.

It didn't, but it was the first person to my knowledge in history to ever launch a coup on YouTube. Libyan authorities insist they're still in control. Prime Minister Ali Zaydan described as ridiculous suggestions that a coup had taken place, saying that Haftar was now retired. He hoped there would be this huge surge of different groups that would defect towards him. And in fact, an arrest warrant was out for him and he left. And it became a laughing

stock. And I remember that day in February 14th, Valentine's Day, 2014, people laughing about the idea of Khalifa Haftar launching a coup in Libya. But he came back 91 days later. And once he comes back, he's less of a joke. He's got an army. He's got the eastern part of the country now. He's got airstrikes now. How could he potentially bomb a migrant center? There's a lot of suspicions, at least in the international community from the government of National Accord. This actually isn't being launched by Khalifa Haftar, but it's being launched by his backers in the UAE and in Egypt who have also used airstrikes through F-16 US aircraft, which the Libyan National Army, that's Khalifa Haftar's forces, they don't own any,

and they don't have pilots that can man those kind of planes. So the suspicion is that it was a foreign airstrike conducted on behalf of Khalifa Haftar's LNA. Critically, Khalifa Haftar can rest on the back of the UAE and Egypt's US procured F-16s. You're saying he's essentially getting weapons from the United States. He's getting weapons from the United States. He's getting weapons from the United States. He's getting those weapons through the UAE, which has a separate agreement with the United States. That is now being discussed, I believe, in Congress. And there are Congress members that are now claiming that the UAE should be blocked,

or rather that the UAE is no longer a reliable partner in military terms to be able to sell those weapons to, because those weapons end up in the hands of armed groups and militias that are fighting for Khalifa Haftar. So it's a huge implication for the UAE as well. Is it clear where the president stands on this, what the United States' policy towards Libya is right now? So the United States policy is a really peculiar one and a very complicated one. At the end of the Obama administration, which was the administration that supported the Arab Spring, but was one that kind

of got cold feet and began to look at Libya, not as an aspiring democracy in the Middle East or North Africa, but as one that has, you know, the presence of armed groups and terrorist groups after the killing and murder of Ambassador Stevens in 2012. They've not really had a policy and they've tried to avoid kind of talking about Libya. And Donald Trump used Benghazi so critically in his elections against Hillary Clinton for the two years that they were canvassing for votes. So Donald Trump's policy has really been that I don't want to own this place. So what we know about the new policy in the White House, which is a kind of a gun ho shooting from the hip style policy, I think one can say for Donald Trump was that he was asked to make a phone call to Khalifa Haftar by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt, but also Crown

Prince Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE in the week preceding April 10th, the beginning of the offensive in Tripoli. And he made a phone call that not only broke diplomatic norms, because Khalifa Haftar doesn't hold a state position. He's a non-state actor. He's a renegade general, effectively. It was the content of what they discussed that was so telling because the brief and the statement that was issued by the White House said that Khalifa Haftar and Donald Trump spoke about ongoing counterterrorism efforts and the hope of building a stable democratic Libya. The two things that I think with Khalifa Haftar, you can't really claim that he's done. The biggest danger and the person that can sell the worst nightmare in the Middle East,

whether it's about ISIS or Al-Qaeda or any other group, is effectively the next partner for counterterrorism, but could also be the next partner for government. And I think that's what Khalifa Haftar has found. He's found the narrative that is appealing to the west it's certainly appealing to the far right and the alt-right that also view the Arab world and the Muslim world in the same way that they think Arabs and Muslims can't be Democrats they shouldn't even attempt democracy because it's either going to be generals that are going to be in in charge or it's going to be ISIS it seems like a bit of an oversimplification and a dangerous one at that but it's one that is being promoted by Khalifa Haftar. And it's music to the ears of people like Donald Trump and other populists in Europe and in the West.

There's another reason President Trump might want to work with a rogue Libyan general like Khalifa Haftar. Khalifa Haftar is an American. There's a break, and then there's more. You've probably heard quite a bit about the Quip electric toothbrush if you regularly listen to this show, but here's something you may not have heard. The compact and wireless design of the Quip electric toothbrush tucks easily in the corner of your carry-on luggage. It's got a travel-ready case and cover that acts as a stand. It mounts to hotel mirrors and protects your brush from, I don't know, sandy swimsuits, maybe some luggage snafu. The three-month battery life of the Quip, it just takes like a AAA battery,

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I grew up in Tripoli in 1999. We fled the country and we came here because of the arrest that Gaddafi issued for the opposition in Libya. My brother, Mossadegh Tunali, he worked for the government of National Accord, providing security in the post-Qaddafi period. He was attempting with his comrades to evacuate the area called Ain Zara in southern Tripoli because Khalifa Haftar's militias were bombing randomly the area. They rushed to the area and they tried to evacuate everyone from there. They got stuck with heavy bombing from Haftar's militias. And unfortunately, my brother Mus Mossadegh, got killed. The impact of the news was devastating. It remained with me even in my sleep for over a month.

I never thought that this time would be his destiny. But, you know, death comes without warning. I decided to file a lawsuit against Khalifa Haftar in the U.S. District Court because he is an American citizen who has committed war crimes, and

we want him to stand trial. As I speak, just in Tripoli, after the attack, he has killed almost a thousand people, displaced over a hundred thousand000 and injured thousands. I hope myself to see a civil, prosperous, democratic state with peaceful transition and with zero tolerance dealing with military solutions. And as we just heard from Abdul Hakim Tunali, a Libyan who lives in America,

who is filing a lawsuit in the United States against Khalifa Haftar for war crimes because though born in Libya, apparently Haftar at some point got American citizenship. What is this dude's backstory? He started his career in politics and in the military in 1969. In 1969, he defected from the King of Libya to Muammar Gaddafi and led a bloodless coup to take control of Libya. In 1986, he was fighting against Hossein Hibri of Chad,

lost, defected to Hossein Hibri, and was later shipped off and defected to the CIA and worked in Langley, Virginia for 20 years. He then went to work with the Libyan opposition, defected again and reconciled with Gaddafi in 2004. At the beginning of the revolution, he defected from Gaddafi and joined the revolution. He defected from the revolution,

bombed the first elected parliament in May 2014, and he defected from the last deal on April 4th, 2019. That's 50 years. So I think to look at his history, you know, he presents himself as a geopolitical Hercules, but he's like geopolitical herpes. You know, once you catch him, you can't get rid of him. He's around forever, unfortunately.

His narrative about counterterrorism resembles the child's story of the boy that cried wolf. By the time that he actually fights terrorism, no one might believe him because he's fought so many different groups and called them terrorists over the last five or six years that no one knows when he's fighting terrorism, when he's not. The only people that seem to be fond of Khalifa Haftar are people that want to wage proxy wars, that want a suitable surrogate, someone that they can buy off very easily. You know, buyer beware, basically. How does anyone trust this guy?

I don't understand how he can even build support. I think there's a silent majority in Libya that don't support Khalifa Haftar, but thought Khalifa Haftar might bring stability and order. But when you look at what kind of brand of stability he brings, it's number one at the barrel of a gun. He displaces people. He creates these huge rifts and ravages the social fabric when he displaces people and puts them in prisons and commits war crimes. But the international community don't seem to be done with him. If you speak to, you know, people across the world, whether it's in the European Union, or in the UN, or in the US or in the UK, certain centers of power, particularly in the defense industry, they somehow think that he could still be a partner in any potential peace

deal. And I don't know what you get when you work with Khalifa Haftar, but you certainly get someone that is self absorbed, and really wants to leave behind the legacy that he feels he has unfinished business since 1969. He wants to rule the country like Mohammed Gaddafi, and I don't think he'll stop until he gets it. What is Haftar promising Libyans? Is it stability? Because he doesn't sound like the kind of guy who could promise that. After, you know, eight years of instability, he's promised that nothing will stop the will of the Libyan people. But in the areas that he controls, he has not only threatened and arrested members of parliament, but he's also arrested civil society activists. He's displaced hundreds of thousands of people in not only a counterterrorism war, but an ethno-tribal war.

Every city that he's had a war in, he's displaced so many of the local residents, ravaged the social fabric, and then claimed to the international community, look, I've brought it back to stability and security. I've brought back some order. I can't imagine Libyans being anything but tired of all this violence and uncertainty. If a Libyan just wants stability, what should he or she be hoping for right now? Who should he or she be rooting for right now? can do. Wars can only happen when there are grievances there that are not being addressed. If you have all of these grievances, if you have all of these fears, then you find these, you know, dogmatic populists that emerge, like Khalifa Haftar, that promise you in a very oversimplified way, just give it to me and tomorrow everything will be fine. And where have we heard that before?

You've heard it in every populist since the 1920s and 1930s, But it's always been an external actor that does this. It's always Mussolini that did this in the 1920s, or before it was the Romans or the Turkish occupation throughout the 1800s. But this is the first time in Libya's history that a Libyan has turned and declared war against the rest of Libya. And it is the most brutal and surprising factor for so many Libyans that they can't believe that their own neighbors, their own kinsmen, tribesmen, brothers and sisters and cousins are being lost to this war, a very unnecessary war. You know, Libya is in the midst of a massive war in the Middle East and North Africa, because it's not only in Libya. It took place in Egypt in 2013, in Sudan recently with the return of a military regime, in Algeria over, in Sudan recently with the return of a military regime,

in Algeria over the last few months with the return of a military regime. Wherever you look in the Arab world, it's either going to be a civilian government or a military government. That's the way that we view it in the region. We don't view it as Islamist and secularist or terrorist and demagogue or, you know, anti-terrorist. We view it in terms of, I want a government that I can appoint, elect, but also take away if I've had enough of it and if I want to hold it to account. There is an existential fear in the Arab world about the Arab Spring, and that's really where our problem is in Libya, because we're caught in between these two huge winds that have been blowing really hard since 2011.

So Libya doesn't really need a Haftar, it probably needs a Mandela, someone that can be accepted by most of the population, and is not talking about war, but is talking about healing those rifts that have been caused by war but it's going to be long and it's going to be arduous and there are more weapons and bullets than people in Libya and I don't think anybody that I know today in the centers of power that rose up in 2011 against Gaddafi are going to sit back idly and watch while Salih al-Aftar takes the country back to military rule. They'll fight to the death and that's going going to be a long and nasty, brutal chapter on the southern Mediterranean of Europe.

NSL Gomati is the director of the SADC Institute. I'm Sean Ramos-Verm. This is Today Explained. Irene Noguchi is the show's executive producer. Afim Shapiro is the engineer. Noam Hassenfeld, Halima Shah, Amina Alsadi, and Bridget McCarthy produce the show. Alex Pena and Will Reed intern, and the mysterious Breakmaster Cylinder writes songs. Today Explained is produced in association with Stitcher, and we are part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Thanks to the Quip Electric Toothbrush for supporting the show today.

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