Today, Explained - The spike in gun violence (Part I)

Episode Date: July 29, 2021

The nation’s murder rate rose by almost 25 percent last year — the largest increase in at least 60 years. This year might be even worse. ProPublica’s Alec MacGillis reports on “The Great Regression.” Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained. Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts. An earlier version of this episode inaccurately described the no-cash bail policies District Attorney Larry Krasner's office has pursued since the start of the pandemic. The episode previously stated that Krasner stopped requesting bail in many gun cases. After publication, the office said it has pursued high bail in almost all gun cases. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Get groceries delivered across the GTA from Real Canadian Superstore with PC Express. Shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC Optimum Points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. It's Today Explained. I'm Sean Ramos from... We've made what feels like a million episodes about the COVID-19 pandemic. And while the show has been focused on that crisis, I kind of think we've neglected another one. One that, like COVID-19, has affected just about every corner of the country.

Gun violence. Last year, the nation's murder rate rose by almost 25%, the largest increase in at least 60 years. And 2021 might be even worse. Shootings are way up across the country. A couple of weeks ago, three people were shot outside of a Washington Nationals game here in D.C. You could hear the shots if you were watching on TV. Fans scrambled to leave the park. It was total chaos. This past weekend, 70 people were shot in Chicago. 12 died.

In Detroit, seven people were shot at a candlelight vigil. Call it the Great Regression. To make up for lost time on this issue, we're devoting two episodes to the problem and to solutions this week. And we're collaborating with ProPublica. Alec McGillis from ProPublica has been reporting our story from Philadelphia with a few Today Explained producers, Jillian Weinberger and Miles Bryan. Alec, why Philadelphia? So, Philadelphia offers one of the starkest examples of this terrible nationwide trend. They had 499 homicides last year, which is just one shy of their all-time record of 500

set back in 1990. And this year is looking like it's going to be even worse, much worse than last year. And unlike many other major cities, Philly actually had a referendum on the issue of public safety in the form of their election for district attorney. The city put all of this in front of voters like Nakesha Billa. Just want to be very informed. I met Nakesha on Pennsylvania's primary day, May 18th.

Her coffee table was covered in election mailers and sample ballots. We were still sitting here just sifting through. We were just talking about the ballot questions and things. Nikisha was especially invested in one race, the race for district attorney, because her son was shot and killed in March. I'm speaking for a lot of mothers. I'm carrying that weight. Through Nikisha and her family, we can see how Philly managed its gun violence problem years ago and what's happened since. We're going to go on this two-episode journey with her,

and by the end of it, she's going to choose who to vote for. She'll pick a vision of how the city should be responding to this crisis. So you guys really want to hear from the humble beginnings. Yeah, the very beginnings. The humble beginnings. A couple Today Explained producers and I talked with Nikisha at her dining room table on a sunny day back in May. This is when I turned into an interview of not just about just Dominic, but Dominic and his mom. Just when I found out that I was carrying

Dominic, it was like the best thing that had ever happened to me. This was back in 2000, when Nikesha was in her early 20s. Violent crime was still near an all-time high in Philadelphia. Nikesha's neighborhood had its share of issues, but she was proud of what she had built. After being raised by her grandparents and then living with her sister, she had finally gotten a place of her own, a three-bedroom house in a neighborhood called Kensington. Pretty quickly, though, the situation there became unstable. It was very nice outside.

We had one of those early, warm, seasonal time periods. When Dominic was about six weeks old, Nikisha walked with him to the corner store to get something to eat. When I left out of the store that day, a fight had broke out, and it was gunfire all around me. And I just froze, and there was nothing I could do but just stand there and hold my baby. And I remember going home, back into the house, and saying, I can't do this. I can't raise my baby in this neighborhood.

Nikisha decided to leave. She packed up the first place she'd ever called her own and went to a shelter with her son. It was a hard decision, but even harder if I would have stayed. She lived in the shelter for about a year. Eventually, she moved into subsidized housing, got a job in medical billing. But Nikesha wanted to spend more time with her son, so she looked for work where she could still be with him. There was a school bus company that allowed the drivers to bring the children to work with them if they couldn't find child care. And I remember studying hard for my CDL so that I could get the job where I can bring Dominic to work with me.

When did you move up here? 2004. She bought a big, airy house in northeast Philadelphia, a working-class, mostly white neighborhood. That's where we talked to her in May. I moved to the northeast because I just wanted to give Dominic a better start, not just the safer streets, but even a better education. Nikesha and Dominic liked the new neighborhood.

It was safer. And as Dominic grew, Philly as a whole was getting safer too. What I wanted was a change in behavior by folks who might normally carry a gun. The homicide rate fell sharply under one mayor in particular, Michael Nutter. He was in office from 2008 to 2016, only the third black mayor in the city's history. To the law-abiding citizens of Philadelphia, I say that we are the great majority. And to the lawbreakers, you are in the small minority. This is our city, and we're taking it back. He focused specifically on the young guys who are most likely to be involved with gun violence,

often young black men in poor neighborhoods. I wanted them every day to think about, before they came out of the house, I know they're actively stopping people. Maybe I shouldn't carry this gun today, because I don't want to get caught. Mayor Nutter was relying on a core belief among criminologists, the need for what they call swift, certain, and fair policies. It's the idea that people are much less likely to carry guns or commit other crimes if they know punishment for doing so will be swift, certain, and fair.

Fair doesn't mean the prison sentence has to be long to be effective. People just have to know that they're likely to get caught and will face some consequences. That's the idea, anyway. In practice, Nutter's approach to reducing gun violence relied on a lot of stop and frisk. That led to a court case. In 2011, the city of Philadelphia settled a lawsuit with the ACLU, which alleged that more than half of the police department stops were unconstitutional. That was more than 100,000 illegal stops in one year.

Now, Nutter's administration implemented a bunch of other programs, too. I believe that there are some people probably still alive today because of many of the things we did. They doubled down on community policing, getting more cops out walking around in neighborhoods that saw a lot of crime. They supported violence interruption programs, which pay for locals in dangerous neighborhoods

to try and head off conflicts before they get violent. And the police department also tried a program that focused their resources on the very small group of people who are most likely to be involved with gun crime. And something worked. The homicide rate started to fall pretty quickly after Nutter took office. By 2014, when Dominic was in middle school, the city's homicide rate was about half of what it was at its peak, nearly 25 years earlier. But this drop wasn't just in Philly. Crime fell in New York. The overall trend in all of our crime categories continues to go down. L.A.

Crime in L.A. declined for the 11th straight year. All over the country. The crime rate in the U.S. went down in 2009 for the third year in a row. Criminologists don't all agree on what exactly led to the dramatic drop in crime. It might have been the end of the crack epidemic. Some even point to a decline in kids' exposure to lead. Some also highlight the success of the targeted policing programs, what Mayor Nutter launched in Philly.

Nikisha, well, she appreciated the fact that the city was getting safer. But those police stops were often on her mind. Her family was growing. She eventually adopted three more kids and had another baby. She fretted about them, especially in their mostly white neighborhood. My family was accepted, but not totally. I think Dominic, he had the worst times and experiences because his skin color was darker. Nikisha worried about Dominic a lot, but especially when her son got his driver's license. He had the worst times and experiences because his skin color was darker.

Nikisha worried about Dominic a lot, but especially when her son got his driver's license. Her husband at the time was actually a homicide detective assigned to the DA's office. And he and Nikisha made Dominic carry copies of his license and registration in the glove box, in their center console, and even in his coat pocket. You don't just have that anxiety building up on my child is a new driver, making sure he obeys all the driving laws and regulations, but now you have this other monster that you have to worry about being pulled over and running into the wrong officer. All mothers of black and brown children, we share that fear. That fear, the very real fear of running into the wrong officer, helped jumpstart a movement

in Philly in the race for the city's district attorney back in 2017. District attorneys have a lot of power. Once someone's arrested, the DA's office decides which charges to bring against them or whether to charge them at all. For now, we'll charge him with man one. Funny, he smells like murder too to me. The DA helps decide who gets let out on bail. Your Honor, the defendant has been convicted of murder once before.

He is a repeat offender, is a soldier in the Masucci family, and is considered a flight risk. This office requests that he be held without bail. They stand opposite the defense attorney in the courtroom. Did you know it was wrong when you woke up that morning? Yes. Did you know it was wrong when you ate your cereal? Yes. He's badgering, Your Honor. Sit down and shut up, Mr. Feynman. Overruled. And they negotiate on which cases should be plea bargained and which should go to trial. Don't worry, we get it. You need a case, you can prosecute. I also need a case that won't bounce on a motion to dismiss. For years, Philly's DA, like most big city DAs,

was a law and order type. But in 2017, a new kind of candidate pulled ahead in Philly's DA race. We all know the reality. The reality is that if you're a kid on Penn campus walking around with weed in your back pocket, you are going to be protected by the Penn police. That's what they're there for. And if you are a black or brown kid who's three blocks away who is not a Penn student, then you're going to be put up against

the wall three or four times by police officers. This is Larry Krasner, one of the city's best known defense attorneys. Krasner, a longtime civil rights attorney, promises big changes to the city's justice system. He was a civil rights lawyer who represented Black Lives Matter activists and Occupy protesters in suits against the police. Still, in 2017, he won the DA's race in a landslide. What's real here? What's real here? Philadelphia political landscape has been substantially upended tonight. Larry Krasner obliterated the field with over... With Krasner's win, Philadelphia became part of what's known as the progressive prosecutor movement,

alongside cities like San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, and Los Angeles. It's a movement to elect officials like Krasner, lawyers who want to transform the DA's role to focus on reducing incarceration and racism in the criminal justice system. This is a mandate for a movement that is loudly telling government what it wants. And what it wants is criminal justice reform in ways that require transformational change within the Philadelphia District Attorney's Office. Krasner had the support of many progressives. He also had strong support from rank-and-file Black voters,

the voters most likely to bear the brunt of police violence and incarceration. Voters like Nakisha. Krasner came in with letting us know that our civil rights will no longer be violated. And I think that's why he got the support of the people. What happens when an anti-prosecutor becomes a prosecutor? That's in a minute on Today Explained. Thank you. digital photo frame by Wirecutter. Aura frames make it easy to share unlimited photos and videos directly from your phone to the frame. When you give an Aura frame as a gift, you can personalize it, you can preload it

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We're back. Alec, when does this anti-prosecutor prosecutor Larry Krasner enter office in Philadelphia? His term began in January 2018. Culture of the DA's office is like a sports culture. They try to maximize convictions and maximize years, and it's a failed approach. It has made things worse instead of making them better. Krasner believed he was elected to overhaul that culture.

He started making changes right away. On a cold January Friday, just his fourth day in office, Krasner fired 30 career prosecutors without warning. It became known as the Snow Day Massacre. Jim, it is one of the most shocking and drastic shakeups of the Philadelphia District Attorney's Office that anyone can recall. But it most definitely should not come as any surprise to those who had been following the campaign promises of Larry Krasner.

With his new team in place, Krasner implemented major reforms. He stopped prosecuting some low-level offenses altogether, like marijuana possession and prostitution. He drastically reduced the number of people on probation and parole. And he made big changes to the city's bail system. There's absolutely no reason why someone who will show up for court

is not a risk of flight, is no threat to their neighbors and community, should sit in jail for days or weeks or months or years because they can't post a small amount of bail. At first, Krasner got rid of bail for a bunch of low-level crimes, like retail theft, DUI, resisting arrest. But in March of 2020, Krasner added more offenses to that no-bail list. The pandemic hits.

The courts have just closed. We are facing a potential crisis in terms of Philly County Jail becoming a super spreader if there are too many people in there. So we make a decision, and I made the decision, that we're going to try to simulate a no-cash bail system. Krasner's office stopped seeking bail for many offenses, except for cases deemed serious or violent. In every case, we're either going to say no bail,

or we're going to name a very high number. Krasner says his office almost always seeks high bail for gun cases. But he told us it hasn't always been so successful in prosecuting them. There was a decline in convictions for gun possession cases early in the administration. It was a major decline. Within two years of Krasner taking office, the conviction rate for gun possession had dropped by more than 20 percent, according to the Inquirer. Krasner mostly blames the police for this.

Witnesses didn't show up, evidence was weak. He thinks that's why so many gun possession defendants ended up not being convicted. All of this meant that Krasner's tenure was controversial from the start, but the debate really took off last year when Philly's homicide rates skyrocketed. Jason, with five murders and a dozen

shootings over the weekend, gun violence was on everyone's mind again today, including the district attorney. Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner is defending his record and says he is tackling the ongoing violence in our city. You got Krasner. He will not prosecute and he will plea deal these folks, and they back out on the street. You give them bail money, and next thing you know, he's shooting somebody up. A lot of Philadelphia police officers and their supporters

blame the homicide spike on Krasner, including... Joe Sullivan, retired deputy Commissioner, Philadelphia Police. Dog owner. And dog, proud dog owner. I met Joe, his German Shepherds, and his Yorkie poop at his house, not too far from where Nikesha lives in Northeast Philadelphia. I spent multiple ranks in SWAT as an officer, a lieutenant, a captain, and the chief inspector. I was the commanding officer of narcotics.

Joe retired in January of 2020. He had a reputation for being pretty centrist politically. I totally understand the need to end mass incarceration and bail reform, probation reform. People should not be put on probation for a minor offense and then technical violations. Still, the former deputy commissioner thinks Krasner's reforms go too far.

What is your gut sense of what's been going on for the last couple years? I don't think you could ignore the election of the new DA and the reform measures that were put in place. In Philadelphia, the city's awash with guns. And the goal of any police department is to make that core group of violent recidivists really afraid to be caught carrying a gun because they know that there is a reasonable prison sentence in their future. And that is enough to make people say, I'm just, I'm just

leave the gun at home. I don't want to get caught with a gun. Joe Sullivan believes that to reduce gun violence, people need to know there's a good chance they'll be punished if they're caught with an illegal gun. He worries that's not happening under Krasner. If your buddy goes to court, they drop the felony charge and let him walk out the door on the misdemeanor charge. What do you think he does when he gets back? He tells everyone. We've heard these discussions on prison tapes. Prisoners talking about, you know, hey, don't worry about it. Krasner just doesn't think that's true. This notion that a bunch of young men whose brains are not even fully formed are carefully following crime statistics and they're following the paper.

And they're never going to rob a bank if somebody gets arrested and convicted for robbing a bank. Well, guess what? They've been arrested and convicted for robbing a bank, well, guess what? They've been arrested and convicted for robbing banks, and they still rob banks. This is a fundamental disagreement between Sullivan's camp and reformers like Krasner. It mirrors an argument that criminologists often have. Those that agree with Krasner say, hey, these young guys aren't reading the news. Those that agree with Sullivan say, these young men figure out that there won't be consequences for carrying when they see their friends back out on the street. So the Sullivan argument goes, more people carry. And when there are more guns on the street, they're more likely to be used. More people get

shot. More people die. Like Nikisha's son Dominic, late last March. He never said which mall he was going to. He just said, just grab me an outfit. And I said, okay. And as always, be safe. You know, I love you. Dom went to a nearby mall to get new clothes. He left his job at a hospital during the pandemic because he was worried about bringing home COVID. Now that the city was starting to reopen,

he was hoping to join the Steamfitters Union. That was a steamers apprenticeship, local 420. That afternoon, Nikisha was actually headed to the same mall on her bus route. She now drives for the city. And when I pulled in, I saw the ambulance. I saw the police. I even heard the helicopters over top. There were three people that got on the bus. And when I got to the last person that was paying their fare, I had said, what in the world is going on over there at the mall? And he said, ma'am, somebody just got shot up in here. And I was like, my gosh, you got to be kidding me. I didn't allow my mind at that moment to go there, but I instantly was afraid. And I wanted to pick up my phone, but I had passengers on board and were not allowed to hit my phone, of course, for safety issues. The first moment I got to pull over when my

bus was clear, I picked up my phone and I saw nothing but red going straight down the phone from Ms. Calls. I dialed the first number and I'm like, what's wrong? What happened? And they would just say, Keisha, I'm sorry. And I'm like, well, what? Who? What? What happened?

And they couldn't say. So I hung up on them, dialed the next number and I got the same thing Keisha I'm so sorry I'm like you so sorry what hung up dial the next number and I think I got my brother and he just kept saying Keisha's dumb I'm like okay he's dumb so just tell me he's okay. Tell me he's okay. He said, I can't. Dominic died on March 29th, 2021. He was 21 years old. Nikisha buried him two weeks later. When we met, her house was filled

with keepsakes decorated with Dom's likeness. A painting, a face mask, a pillow, a quilt, all to keep his presence close. A suspect, also 21, was arrested and charged with first-degree murder a couple weeks after the shooting. His case is making its way through the courts. The motive is still unclear, but he had a record. Police had already arrested him twice for gun possession in 2018 and 2019. Both times he'd been released on bail, and both cases are not resolved. Nikisha couldn't help but wonder, would a more conventional prosecutor have made a difference? Maybe Larry Krasner was too lax on gun cases. Maybe a different prosecutor would have put the suspect behind bars for gun possession.

Maybe that would have prevented Dom's death. When Dominic died, Larry Krasner was campaigning for re-election against a prosecutor he fired, Carlos Vega. Vega was a career homicide prosecutor who was supported by the police union. On primary day, Nekisha still wasn't sure which candidate to support. I'm speaking for a lot of mothers. I'm speaking for a lot of minorities who have been victimized through the justice system as well. So it's like, for me, it's a multidimensional quest of knowledge before I vote, because there's so many different areas that are at stake at this point. Nikisha was torn. It couldn't just be Krasner's fault.

A lot of the cities that saw gun violence spike in 2020 didn't have progressive prosecutors. The fact is, there were a lot of changes last year. For Dominic, for Philadelphia, and for young people all across the country. Everything got shut down. Schools, libraries, rec centers, and even the courts. The guy who allegedly shot Dom, his prior gun arrests were still awaiting court dates before Dom was killed. Those cases were delayed. The courts decided to cease nearly all operations for COVID-19. On the show tomorrow, our story continues with the pandemic's role in gun crime.

And we'll follow Nikisha and the city of Philadelphia as they make a choice. Remake the criminal justice system or stick with the one they've got. It's Today Explained. Thank you.