Today, Explained - The view from Israel

Episode Date: November 2, 2023

Israelis overwhelmingly disapprove of their government’s handling of the October 7 attacks, but their desire for unity keeps Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in power. Michael Koplow of the Israel Policy Forum explains what Israel’s government should do next, and Professor Noah Efron of Bar-Ilan University describes the mood among Israelis. This episode was produced by Avishay Artsy and Amanda Lewellyn, edited by Miranda Kennedy, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by David Herman, and hosted by Noel King. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King. On October 18th, President Biden met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv. I come to Israel with a single message. You're not alone. You are not alone. As long as the United States stands and we will stand forever, we will not let you ever be alone. Now, in that speech, Biden urged the protection of civilian lives in Gaza. Israel's military campaign in Gaza has since claimed many lives, including those of around 3,600 kids.

Biden's support for Bibi may be slipping. At an event in Minneapolis last night, a woman interrupted Biden's speech. Mr. President, if you care about Jewish people as a rabbi, I need you to call for a ceasefire right now. And Biden responded, I think we need a pause. The White House said later, that's a pause to get hostages out and to get aid in. And then Politico reports today that Biden and his inner circle are saying Netanyahu's days are numbered. We'll see you next time. taps. And to top it all off, quick and secure withdrawals. Get more everything with FanDuel Sportsbook and Casino. Gambling problem? Call 1-866-531-2600. Visit connectsontario.ca. This is Today Explained.

My name is Michael Koplow, and I am the Chief Policy Officer at Israel Policy Forum, which is a policy research group that is dedicated to supporting American foreign policy toward a secure Jewish and democratic Israel. And we believe that the way to do that is through an eventual two-state outcome to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Since really 1993 and what is known as the Oslo Process, the thrust of American foreign policy toward Israel and the Palestinians has been to figure out how the two sides can actually get to this two-state outcome where you will have Israel living inside secure borders, you will have a state of Palestine that fulfills and respects legitimate Palestinian nationalism, and you can resolve this conflict that has really been dominating

the Middle East for decades. So over the weekend, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent out a tweet at about 1 a.m. in the morning Israel time, and then he deleted the tweet. In it, he said his military leaders hadn't warned him about the possibility of an attack. And he said they were, in fact, the ones responsible. He later apologized. But it seemed like a bit of a moment to have the prime minister of Israel publicly blame his defense chiefs and then have to walk that back. What does that tell us about what is happening inside the Israeli government right now? Prime Minister Netanyahu has been focused not only during this conflict, but for years on figuring out how he can remain in power. And there have been a number of things that have challenged his hold on the premiership,

not least of which are the fact that he is at the moment in the midst of a criminal trial on three separate counts. Now, this has never happened in Israel before that a sitting prime minister has been charged with offenses as serious as these. Netanyahu is alleged to have used his power as the then communications minister, as well as prime minister, to give regulatory benefits to a media magnate here. And in return, Netanyahu, according to the indictment, was demanding favorable coverage. He's been able to survive that up until now. But the October 7th attacks were the most shocking event, I think it's fair to say, in Israel's history. On October 7th, you had 1,400 Israelis killed in one day. And so this is seen as a monumental failure. And given that Prime

Minister Netanyahu has been in power with the exception of a year and a half interregnum since 2009, it's logical that many Israelis look at what happened and say that the Prime Minister must have some sort of responsibility for this. And the Prime Minister has been trying very hard to avoid saying that he is responsible. And that's how we get to this tweet. And he deleted the tweet a couple of hours later and actually came out and apologized, which is relatively rare for Prime Minister Netanyahu. But it fed into this widespread perception that he is certainly consumed with fighting this war and an Israeli victory,

but that he also seems to be consumed with doing what he can to avoid blame and thinking about what his political career is going to look like on the other end. The New York Times and other news outlets have reported that Israeli security officials tried to warn Netanyahu that his domestic policies were causing political turmoil and that that was weakening the country's security. If in fact that's true, what could that mean for Netanyahu politically? Netanyahu is in a real bind because Israelis do indeed view October 7th as an enormous failure. And it's very tough to be the prime minister who oversees something like this and survives.

Now, one of the difficulties is that replacing an Israeli prime minister before a scheduled election who does not actually want to resign is exceedingly difficult. I think that in previous times, almost everybody would expect the prime minister, as soon as the fighting is over, to step down. And I don't think that we can assume that that will be the case with Prime Minister Netanyahu. The only thing that I intend to have resign is Hamas. We're going to resign them to the dustbin of history. How would you describe Israel's military strategy in Gaza? What are the stated and maybe even unstated objectives here? Israel wants to do two things. It wants to degrade Hamas's military capabilities and remove Hamas from power entirely.

But whichever one of these it is, make sure that Hamas does not present a security threat to Israel going forward. And it also wants to secure the release of nearly 250 hostages who are being held by Hamas, men, women, children, elderly. But it may not be effective in getting the hostages released and back to Israel safe and sound. On the other hand, if you negotiate with Hamas for the hostages and the deal that Hamas has publicly floated is this idea of what's being called in Israel all for all. Hamas requesting and saying that they would be happy to immediately release all of those held captive

if and as long as all of the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails are released. Of course, there's more than 6,000 of them. That will get the hostages back, presumably, assuming that that deal is actually a real offer. But it will probably mean that you have to at least temporarily suspend military operations. There still is majority support for ground operation, but it has lessened because most Israelis tend to think that if you want the hostages back, that's going to have to mean some sort of halt or cessation of the military operation in Gaza. We don't know how long this war will last or, in fact, where it will lead.

But with that in mind, how do you think this changes the legacy of the already controversial Benjamin Netanyahu? Before this, Netanyahu was known as the longest serving prime minister in Israel's history. He was known as someone who dominated Israeli politics for decades. He was known as the person who really modernized Israel's economy as finance minister in the early 2000s. And his nickname was Mr. Security, because many Israelis saw him as being the greatest safeguard of Israeli safety. And he has also historically been a really cautious prime minister when it comes to the use of military force, the most cautious in Israel's history. And so he had this image, which I think in many ways was well-earned, of presiding over a period in which Israelis were not dealing with terrorism inside of Israel,

in which Israel did not have to fight wars on its borders. Since October 7th, Israelis have a very different view of him. Part of it is colored by what has happened over the past year, where Prime Minister Netanyahu has not only been on trial, but he divided Israeli society in an unprecedented way through pushing through a judicial overhaul that was extremely controversial and that was also extremely unpopular. And now we have this unprecedented security disaster when Israel suffered its heaviest and most damaging and most psychologically scarring blow in its history.

And ultimately, that is going to be his legacy. That was Michael Koplow with the Israel Policy Forum. Coming up on Today Explained, a father's view of this crisis. Support for Today Explained comes from Aura. Aura believes that sharing pictures is a great way to keep up with family. And Aura says it's never been easier thanks to their digital picture frames. They were named the number one digital photo frame by Wirecutter. Aura frames make it easy to share unlimited photos and videos directly from your phone to the frame. When you give an

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code EXPLAINED at checkout. That's A-U-R-A-Frames.com, promo code EXPLAINED. This deal is exclusive to listeners and available just in time for the holidays terms and conditions do apply bet mgm authorized gaming partner of the nba has your back all season long from tip-off to the final buzzer you're always taken care of with a sportsbook born in vegas that's a feeling you can only get with BetMGM. And no matter your team, your favorite player, or your style, there's something every NBA fan will love about BetMGM. Download the app today and discover why BetMGM is your basketball home for the season. Raise your game to the next level this year with BetMGM,

a sportsbook worth a slam dunk an authorized gaming partner of the nba bet mgm.com for terms and conditions must be 19 years of age or older to wager ontario only please play responsibly if you have any questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you please contact connex ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. You are listening to Today Explained. My name is Noah Efron,

and I am a professor of science and technology studies. I'm a candidate for Tel Aviv's city council, and I'm a podcaster, have a podcast called The Promised Podcast on Israeli politics and culture. Noah, can you describe your political views? I understand you're on the left. What characterizes the Israeli left? What do you believe? Well, I don't know if I can say that I'm completely representative of the left, but my views are that our future is somehow linked to the future of Palestinians here and that any future that is safe and secure where

we thrive can only happen if Palestinians are safe and secure and can thrive. And so that means necessarily an end to the occupation. In my mind, the future that I imagine and that I hope for is a future where there are two states side by side, Palestine and Israel. You know, I'm a college professor, so obviously I'm a Marxist of some sort. I'm a socialist. And I'm pretty far to the left about economic issues, about issues of social and economic justice. I also identify as a Zionist. I believe strongly that there ought to be a Jewish state, whatever that means. Now that you've sort of characterized where you sit and where you're coming from, I want to ask you about the events of October 7th. So there is this brutal attack by Hamas on Israel. Where were you and how did you learn what had happened?

So at 6.30 in the morning, when the first missile attack siren went off, I was in bed and I got up and I gathered the dog, Lucy, who shivers in terror from the sirens. And we went into the stairwell because our building was built in 1936 and does not have a fortified room. And we let the 10 minutes pass.

And after that, I got ready to go to services. And so I just ignored the fact that missiles had just fallen. But a little bit later, my phone rang. And though I don't usually use the phone on the Sabbath, I saw that it was from my boy who was in college in California. And I figured that if he was calling on the Sabbath, not that it means anything to him, but he knows it means something to me, it had to be an emergency. So I answered it. And he told me that Hamas fighters had poured into the farming villages and towns outside of Gaza. And he said that the news was saying that 22 people were killed, which was an ungraspably high number for a terrorist attack. You know, six is terrible. And he told me that he'd already gotten a message

from his reserve unit here calling him back to the country. So he was buying a ticket. Could he have my credit card number to get on the first plane from LA to Tel Aviv. And at first, I discouraged him, saying, it sounds like it's a terrible terrorist attack, but won't it be over before he even gets there? Is it worth coming? And he said, Abba, I'm coming. And after that, I began to scroll through the phone like almost everyone here and see this thing unfolding in front of my eyes on social media as people posted, we're in our fortified room, terrorists are outside the door, what should we do? Or we're in our fortified room and our house has been set on fire, should we leave or should we do? Or we're in our fortified room and our house has been set on fire. Should we leave or should we stay? And people posting, my son is down there. Can anyone help him? Will someone go to this kibbutz and find my son? And you're following these stories as they unfold from minute to minute over this long day.

And the news says that it's not 22 people, but 45 people who were killed. And then it's 80 people. And then it's 120 people. And then you start to see the very first videos that Hamas actually posted of people being thrown onto motorcycles and dragged back off to Gaza, unclear whether they're alive or dead. And my boy is on the way to the airport to come here so that he can be part of this. And he's on an airplane and he's coming. And it was the saddest day of my life. And then the beginning of a period that still hasn't ended. That is the saddest period in my life. When I went to the airport the next day to pick up the boy after his plane landed, and by then, you know, it was now, I guess, 36 hours since the thing had begun, then there was a lot more information.

And the news really started to come in about that music festival outside of Kibbutz Re'im down in the south, where in the end, we now know that somewhere between 260 and 280 people were killed. And their pictures were starting to appear in social media. So I was scrolling through them, and every one of them looked like my boy, in that they were all in their early 20s, and they were all gorgeous. They were all illuminated from within in the way that young people are. By the time my boy came through and I hugged him, he just looked like, just exactly like any one of those 200-odd people who were dead. And it was impossible to make sense of. And then you go into the days that followed were just days of funeral after funeral after funeral. Everywhere you looked, there was a picture. Everywhere you listened, there was a story. And of course, Israel being what it is, everyone went to school

with someone whose brother or cousin or child was killed. And so there was no escaping it at all. And then because the state largely stopped functioning, it took days and days and days for the institutions of the state to address all the huge needs of people living and dead immediately after the attack, then we were all pushed into this kind of manic activity to help the people who needed help. So a notice came over a WhatsApp group that they needed people to dig graves, because of course they can't dig 1,400 graves in two days. They need clothes. They need food. People going into the army need warm clothes. It became an economy of what is mine is yours. The meaning of property shifted in no time at all, where

suddenly if somebody asked you, do you have a bed because there's a family that needs to sleep all night in the hospital near their eight-year-old who lost his leg, then you gave the mattresses that you had, and there was this feeling as though the world has ended and there is a new world there and the grief is enormous overpowering, but the need is the only thing that there is that's bigger than that. And I pick up my boy at the airport and take him home to change his clothes and then take him right to the army. And 36 hours before that, he's a college kid at USC, and now he's a soldier going down to outside Gaza to join his unit, and God knows what will happen, and I am insane with worry. I mean, I don't use that word insane as an intensifier. It's precise. I have lost my wits with worry about that boy who I seem to have grown fond of over his 22 years. And I don't know what to do with myself.

Noah, I hear you saying you are insane with worry in Israel. You have a son involved in this military campaign. And so I want to ask you about what has happened since this awful attack. Israel then launches a ground invasion into Gaza. That invasion is controversial, which you know. Are you in support of this response by your government? If you ask me if I think it's the best and most proper thing for my government to have done, then my answer is I just don't know. But if you ask, like you did ask, am I in support of the invasion now that it is underway, then the answer is yes. And a word about that, because a lot of people think that the aim of this invasion is to seek revenge, and it is not. I've been to these shivas where parents are talking about their dead children, and I have

heard no one use the word revenge at all. I know that a lot of people think that Israelis are unaware or uncaring about the numbers of Palestinians killed by this invasion, which, as I speak to you today, is about 9,000. But by the time people hear this, it will be even higher, which is such a huge number, and every Palestinian civilian killed is a tragedy. Every one is a whole world, and every kid killed there is its own kind of cataclysm, just like every innocent Jew killed. But this war, as I think most all Israelis see it, is not a war against Palestinian civilians. It is against Hamas. And Hamas is a brutal fundamentalist death cult that has said for decades that they will stop

at nothing until Israel is destroyed. They made me believe them. And it might be the case that so long as Hamas remains, no one in this region, not Jews, not Palestinians, will ever know peace. And if that is the case, it is possible, though I don't know to say that it's true, that by some infernal calculus, it might be best in the long run to destroy Hamas, even though hundreds of Israelis will die doing it and thousands and thousands of Palestinians. Did this attack change your beliefs at all? Did it change the beliefs of the left? I think that for most of the left, it shattered the illusion that we are fellow travelers with most of the left in America and in Europe, who seem to have a hard time saying without equivocating that burning

babies is bad in all circumstances as an absolute or that taking nine-month-olds or 90-year-olds as captives is wrong. I think that the realization that we are working from a very, very different moral system than the leftists abroad is something profound. I think that maybe we'll understand those deep, deep, deep existential fears that a lot of other Israelis who don't find it so easy to say we must end the occupation and the sooner the better feel. And that change, I think, would also only be for the better. Okay. I've seen polling, as I'm sure you have, suggesting that Israelis are very unhappy with how the government handled this situation, both what was happening before and what's happening now. What do you think this translates to politically? Does this translate to the ouster

in an election of Benjamin Netanyahu? Does it translate to something sooner than that? Where do you think this is headed politically? Well, I think that it definitely leads to the ouster of Benjamin Netanyahu to the end of his premiership and political career. The only question is, when? Will it come only after the guns have fallen silent, or will it come while the war is still underway? And I think that we will hear more and more calls for Netanyahu's immediate resignation while the war is still happening, which would be unprecedented here, where we tend to close ranks whenever there's anything like a war or an attack but then everything about our situation is completely unprecedented now

do you think israel will be changed forever by this attack on october 7th can it be the same country that it was? Well, changed, yes. I mean, I think that just the grief and the pain of 1,400 murders will leave a mark that will never entirely fade. When historians look back on this, the question of whether this was a point at which history turned even for the worse or history turned for the better, I think that that is an open question. And that is a question that remains in our hands to determine. And I think that we will continue forward changed, but not necessarily worse, save for all the suffering that will follow us for generations.

That was Noah Efron. He hosts The Promised Podcast, and he's a professor at Bar-Ilan University in Israel. Today's show was produced by Avishai Artsy and Amanda Llewellyn. It was edited by Miranda Kennedy and fact-checked by Laura Bullard. David Herman was our engineer. I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained. you