Today, Explained - Ukraine’s pipeline problem

Episode Date: January 28, 2022

The US is negotiating to stop Russia from invading Ukraine, but a Germany-backed natural gas project complicates things. This episode was produced by Will Reid, edited by Matt Collette, engineered by Efim Shapiro, fact-checked by Laura Bullard and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Get groceries delivered across the GTA from Real Canadian Superstore with PC Express. Shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC Optimum Points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. A couple days ago, Britney Spears posted a looping video of herself in a brand new and wildly unorthodox pink swimsuit on Instagram. The caption read, night I cheated and said no and didn't cover my legs, I swear I danced, lady in a red dress dancing emoji, and moved way faster with nothing on them. This bathing suit, bathing suit emoji, is actually expensive. It kind of looks like a costume, but it's cool to see my legs raw.

People don't know this, but when I did Vegas, I was never allowed to go to the spa, lady at a spa emoji. They didn't want me having coffee, coffee emoji, or tea, so my friends from home would show up, going to the spas, drinking champagne, champagne emoji, no lie, and I was the loser working and entertaining them at night. Doesn't sound like a good deal to me either.

So on this beautiful day here in Maui, beach umbrella emoji, I'm here to remind them all that being treated like an equal individual doesn't require much. Just respect. Raised fist emoji. P.S.S.S. Are we going to war? Looking up emoji, winking tongue out emoji, question mark, question mark, question mark. Like all of us, Britney Spears has got a lot on her mind.

And like all of us, somewhere in the background is this nagging question. Are we going to war? It was only a week ago that President Biden said President Putin was going to invade Ukraine. My guess is he will move in. He has to do something. Jen Kirby, you report on foreign affairs for Vox. Has it happened yet? Well, technically, Russia did invade Ukraine, but that was back in 2014 when it annexed Crimea. But has it invaded Ukraine again? No, to date, it has not. U.S. officials are seeking to avert a military conflict. Roughly 100,000 Russian troops are stationed near the Ukrainian border. The White House continues to believe Russia

could invade Ukraine at any time. These past few weeks have been an effort to forestall any sort of invasion or war in Ukraine through diplomatic routes. Last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. The U.S. Secretary of State was at pains to hold a straight face as he greeted his Russian counterpart, a smiling Sergey Lavrovrov in Geneva this morning. To try to talk through some sort of agreement that would potentially give Russia some of what it wants or ease some of its concerns

to deter them from the idea of moving into Ukraine. Further diplomatic discussions would be the preferable way forward. But again, it is really up to Russia to decide which path it will pursue. The big ticket items are an end to Eastern expansion of NATO, which would obviously mean Ukraine can't join NATO. And the other would be to basically roll back the clock to 1997. So a lot of the countries in Eastern Europe, like the Baltic states or Poland, who are either part of the former Soviet Union or somehow associated with it,

they've all joined NATO in the years since. And what Russia wants is for them to no longer have troops in those territories. We are not deploying our missiles over at the borders of the U.S. No. On the other hand, the U.S. is deploying its missiles close to our home on the porch of our house.

There's some other demands in there, but these are kind of the big ones. And they also are the non-starters for the West largely. And that's because NATO has an open door policy, which basically says you're a country, you get to choose your security arrangements. And by shutting that door, it would essentially allow Russia to dictate who gets to be in NATO, an alliance it's not a part of, and to determine where it gets to place its weapons and forces and troops, which isn't something that the West is willing to give in any way. We will not slam the door shut on NATO's open door policy, a policy that has always been central to the NATO alliance. Well, let's talk about all these other countries and all their competing interests here. I mean,

first of all, let's start with Ukraine's neighbors. Remind us who they are. Ukraine has Russia as a neighbor, unsurprisingly. And then Belarus, which is another Russian ally, which Putin is now placing troops in and planning to do joint military exercises with. And then to the west of Ukraine is Europe's eastern flank, NATO's eastern flank. So kind of the buffer zone between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. Tell me more about the flank. Sure. There's Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and north of Belarus. But in the region, you have Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which we sometimes call the Baltic states. And these countries generally want a harder stance

on Russia. Poland and Lithuania has joined Ukraine in a call for stronger Western sanctions against Moscow. The leaders met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in a show of support in the face of what they describe as ongoing aggression against Ukraine. Because they're closest in many cases, like for the Baltic states, they were part of the former Soviet Union. They feel the potential threat and concern of Russian aggression. You know, if Ukraine goes, then what happens to them? And so they really want Europe and NATO to have a united front against Russia on this. Okay, what about if we keep inching westward, you know, NATO's heavy hitters like France and the UK?

What are they saying right now about this Russian aggression? French President Emmanuel Macron caused a little stir last week when he said he thought, you know, Europe should be negotiating with Russia directly. For both us and Russia, for the security of our continent, which is indivisible, we need the dialogue with Russia. We have to, as Europeans, lay out our own demands and put ourselves in a position where we can make sure they are respected. You know, he has generally been a little bit more bullish on Europe doing its own security and sort of taking more control of that. But he

also got a lot of criticism from others within Europe saying that he was dividing Europe at a time that they needed to be united against Russia, which is what Putin wants. And then you have the UK, which of course is no longer part of the European Union, but has been really aggressive in its support of Ukraine. Just a few days ago, the UK government claimed that Russia was trying to install a pro-Russia president in Ukraine. British officials have pointed in particular to pro-Russian former Ukrainian lawmaker Yevhen Maraev as a likely candidate. And so it's been really, really forceful in its support and kind of, I think, a way to distinguish itself in some ways from the rest of the European Union.

And then there's Germany, which is a bit of a special case here, right? Germany in general has had a more complicated relationship with Russia, dating back to World War II and some of the guilt over the war. But also, you know, during the Cold War, Germany was divided and the German chancellor, starting in the 1960s, engaged in a policy of engagement with the Soviet Union through economy and commerce. And so, you know, Germany gets a lot of its natural gas from Russia. And that is hugely important, not just for Germany, but other countries in Western Europe, which also, incidentally, are going through a bit of an energy crisis right now. Electricity prices, at least right now, and it could be a very short-term thing,

I want to be very clear on that, at like 300 euro per megawatt hour in Germany, what does that mean? Well, it's normally maybe 30 to 50. You're going to open up your bill if it gets cold and be like, normally I might pay 100 euro a month. Why is my bill 400 euro? Germany definitely wants a diplomatic solution, but they may be the most accommodating when it comes to engaging with Russia. There's one project in particular that's causing a lot of controversy at this particular moment as everybody is worrying about the future of Ukraine. Support for Today Explained comes from Aura. Aura believes that sharing pictures is a great way to keep up with family. Thank you. phone to the frame. When you give an AuraFrame as a gift, you can personalize it, you can preload it with a thoughtful message, maybe your favorite photos. Our colleague Andrew tried an AuraFrame for himself. So setup was super simple. In my case, we were celebrating my grandmother's birthday and she's very fortunate. She's got 10 grandkids. And so we wanted to surprise her with the AuraFrame

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Right now, a lot of the ways that Europe gets natural gas just happens to run through Ukraine. There's also another pipeline which runs directly from Russia to Germany. And what they would like to do is build another one of those. And so there's a lot of fear that once this pipeline opens, that will allow Russia to bypass Ukraine in terms of delivering gas to Western Europe. Sounds complicated. Remind us how Germany gets involved with Russian gas in the first place. So we should be clear that Germany getting natural gas from Russia isn't necessarily a new thing. This is natural gas surging and boiling out of the sea as man begins to harness

a massive new source of power. Germany has been getting natural gas from Russia for decades, since the 70s. Recently, the Soviet Minister for Foreign Trade traveled to Essen, one of West Germany's major industrial cities, to sign a $1 billion contract. Under the terms of the deal, West Germany will get a 20-year supply of Siberian gas. Germany, of course, is a big industrial power. And so going back to the early 2000s, Germany's thinking about, you know, its energy and transitioning off coal. And it's

thinking, well, how are we going to do this? And so natural gas seems like the solution. And Russia has the answer. What's the answer? Nord Stream 1. The Nord Stream pipeline is one of the world's largest infrastructure projects. It involves producing 202,000 large diameter, 12 meter long concrete weight-coated steel pipes. So Nord Stream Wood is an underwater pipeline that goes from Russia directly under the Baltic Sea into Germany. To transport 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year from Russia to the European Union. And so it basically makes it really easy for Germany to get natural gas from Russia. A deal to build that pipeline

is signed in 2005, right before Angela Merkel takes over and becomes chancellor. And as chancellor, she decides to pursue the project as well. With this project, we show that we feel sure of a secure and resilient partnership with Russia in the future. And I believe that this project is a perfect example of this. The project was by all accounts pretty successful. And a few years after it opened, Angela Merkel signed another deal with Vladimir Putin to open Nord Stream 2. And it was kind of controversial at the time

because it had come just after Russia had invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. And so a lot of people were like, you're gonna sign this big deal with Russia to build another pipeline after they just did this really aggressive thing in Ukraine. We also emphasize that the Nord Stream 2 project is a anti-European project.

And the Russian aggression in Ukraine is a real job party for the whole Europe. And so it did come with a lot of pushback. But at the time, Angela Merkel defended it as a commercial project. She said, look, this is a private sector thing. It doesn't really have anything to do with geopolitics. Although a lot of critics really disagreed. You know, I can't believe that you're going to move forward with this. You're giving Russia more leverage over Germany and Western

Europe, particularly when it comes to energy. How did the U.S. government feel about this project? Did it do anything, say anything? In 2019, under the Trump administration, Congress passed a bill that would have basically sanctioned some of the folks who were building, constructing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline because they saw it as a security threat. Well, I have to say, I think it's very sad when Germany makes a massive oil and gas deal with Russia, where you're supposed to be guarding against Russia, and Germany goes out and pays billions and billions of dollars a year to Russia. And during the Biden administration, Germany and the U.S. reached a deal to basically waive those sanctions.

And in some ways, it was an acknowledgment that the pipeline was probably going to go forward anyway. And it was also an attempt for Biden, who was trying to rebuild relationships with his European allies, to give Germany a bone. Worst possible outcome from our perspective would be a fizzle completion of the pipeline, sanctions that didn't stop it, a poisoned relationship with Germany, and no incentive on Germany's part to actually work to undo or mitigate the damage that will be done to Ukraine. So that's what we're— And so it caused a lot of stir at the time, but that's sort of where we were until, of course, tensions started to escalate between Russia and Ukraine.

Does it exist yet? It finished construction earlier this year, but it has not gotten approval yet. And so it's kind of stuck in legal limbo, I guess you could say. And Russia would really like it to open. And a lot of other people would like it not to open. And what is this Nord Stream 2 that does not go through Ukraine have to do with Ukraine? So the reason that it's relevant to this Ukraine situation is because right now there's still natural gas that's flowing through Ukraine into Western Europe. And the fear is once the second pipeline opens, that a lot of that gas that transited through Ukraine will now go through

that direct route, which makes Ukraine a lot less valuable for both Russia, which wants to sell its gas to the rest of Europe and for Europe, which will still get its gas if it doesn't have to depend on a stable Ukraine. And so even though Nord Stream 2 is not going to bring necessarily a lot more natural gas to Europe, the fear is that it will bypass Ukraine and Russia has one less excuse if it wants to cause havoc in their neighbor. Okay, so big conflict, but Germany's still pushing for this thing? Yeah, so Germany has continued to defend this project as a commercial project. They're saying, look, it doesn't have anything to do with geopolitics. It's all about commerce. It's natural gas. Don't worry about it.

It needs natural gas for people to heat their homes, and it's cheap natural gas, right? It's way cheaper to get gas from your neighbor than importing it from other places. And of course, we shouldn't fail to mention that there's, you know, European investors who have a lot in stake. And clearly the United States is trying to help out here. On Tuesday, the White House announced that it would chip in some fuel supply to Europe in the event of a Russian shutdown, maybe with some of its fuel partners in the Middle East. What does that say to you right now? Yeah, I think it's it says that the United States understands that the energy issue is a serious one for for Germany, but also for Europe writ large. Right now, Europe itself is dealing with energy shortages and some of it is coming from Russian pressure. You know, there is a sense that Russia is not increasing supply because it's

trying to pressure Europe into getting this pipeline passed. And so there's a fear that if Europe and the West put tough sanctions on Russia for actions in Ukraine, that Russia might escalate and do that even more, which is in many ways confirming what a lot of critics of the pipeline had most feared. But what the U.S. is trying to say is, look, we get it. We know that this is a concern. I think one question about these reports is how much and how fast this can happen. But I think it's really a way for the United States and NATO allies to sort of all get together on the same page. Is there a chance here that Germany's pulling its punches because of its energy interests here? Well, it's a bit more complicated than that,

but they have been criticized because they haven't sent weapons to Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz once again ruled out sending heavy weapons to Kiev. There are reasons for this, which of course also stem from developments over the past years and decades. Whereas other European countries have sent weapons to support Ukraine, and so it's gotten a lot of criticism for that. Where does that all leave us, though? So we've got these competing energy interests that really seem to involve Germany, but also other countries in Western Europe. You've got the U.K. going pretty hard.

You've got France saying we'd like to negotiate. You've got Russian troops surrounding a lot of Ukraine. And then you've got Russia just saying pump the brakes on NATO. Where do all these different points of view and competing interests come together? Yeah, I mean, I think it's a really interesting question. And I think nobody really knows for sure. And I think this is a really, really tough situation and involves a lot of really, really complicated things, energy, national security, domestic politics. And even though nobody wants Russia to take aggressive action against Ukraine, getting everyone on the same page is going to be really, really difficult. And one thing is really clear is that the United

States and Europe, you know, do not want to get involved in a military conflict. So what they're trying to figure out right now is what can they do to pressure Russia so that there is a real, real, real cost to taking really aggressive action against Ukraine, but also won't, you know, engulf the entire world in World War Three. And that's a really, really difficult thing to figure out. And the hope is that we can still get there some way, somehow. TLDR for Brittany. Not yet. Maybe sometime.

Hard to know. Jen Kirby covers foreign affairs for Vox. Our show today was produced by Will Reed, edited by Matthew Collette, engineered by Afim Shapiro, and fact-checked by Laura Bullard. I'm Sean Ramos for them. It's Ukraine Explained. Thank you.