Today, Explained - Venezuela's two presidents

Episode Date: January 24, 2019

In one corner, there’s Nicolás Maduro, the incumbent presiding over a failing economy. In the other, you have Juan Guaidó, a 35-year-old lawmaker who just declared himself president, backed by the United States and most of Latin America. Journalist Mariana Zuniga explains the standoff from Caracas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

My name is Mariana Zúñiga, and I'm a freelance journalist based in Venezuela. But you and your cabinet are finished. Understand, sir, Venezuela is big. Understand, Venezuela is big. So, what exactly happened yesterday? Tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people. It was one of the biggest protests in Venezuela since the wave of protests in 2017, all these people gathered to protest against Nicolás Maduro and to listen to what Juan Guaidó, the president of the National Assembly, had to say.

At some point, I think it was around 2 p.m., he declared himself as the new president of Venezuela based on some articles that are inside of Venezuelan constitution that allows the president of the National Assembly to take the power to re-establish the constitutional order. When he announced it, people started hugging and crying and screaming and saying, we have a new president, because some Venezuelans are really tired of the situation, are really tired of the situation, are really tired of

this government. This constitutional order, according to them, was broken because in last May, Venezuela had some elections that were contested by the international community and by locals as well, because not all politicians were allowed to run. And also because many people, especially state workers, they were obliged to vote for this election. Also because the National Electoral Council in Venezuela is basically controlled by the government. So just to relate what happened in Venezuela yesterday, is Juan Guaido declaring himself president sort of like Nancy Pelosi declaring herself president because of, you know, election fraud? I know it sounds crazy.

And some people around social media are saying that despite Maduro's reputation as an autocrat, this seems like a coup. But for many people, this is not a coup just because they don't consider Maduro as the president of Venezuela, as this new second term being legal. How did Nicol Nicolas Maduro respond? Nicolas Maduro responds saying that this was some kind of coup, that they are trying to overthrow him, that this is not democratic. de gobierno en cumplimiento de mis funciones que juré frente al pueblo de respetar y hacer respetar la independencia de la economía y la paz.

La comunidad internacional empezó a reconocer a él en lugar de Maduro como presidente de Venezuela. El primero fue el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump. Lo que Maduro did immediately when he went on national TV was saying that, like, cutting all the diplomatic relationships with the United States and saying that the diplomatic corps of the United States here in Venezuela had 72 hours to leave the country.

Apparently they are not going to do it. They didn't do it because Juan Guaidó invited all the diplomatic community to stay in the country. And it seems to me that if they don't recognize Maduro, they won't recognize his order either. And one day later, who's all backing Guaidó? In the region, almost all the countries in the region except Mexico, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Uruguay. But the rest of the countries in the region, El Grupo de Lima, also the United States, Canada, they say they recognize Juan Guaidó as the new president of Venezuela, the interim president of Venezuela.

Colombia recognizes Juan Guaidó as president of Venezuela. On behalf of Canada, that we recognize and express our full support for the president. Brazil, together with all other countries comprising the Lima Group, which are recognizing this fact, we will give all political support to take this process to an end. The European Union asked for the democracy to be re-established in Venezuela and for free and fair elections to be held, but they didn't say anything explicitly about recognising about recognizing Juan Guaido as the new president. And allies of Nicolás Maduro, historically, like Russia and Turkey, they back Maduro. Which do you think matters more, the endorsements of Canada and the United States,

or Russia and Turkey, or Mexico and Boliviaivia or Peru and Chile? Which of these endorsements means more for Venezuelan politics, for Venezuelan people? Well, I think for Venezuelan people, the region means more. Russia has been lending money to Venezuela since some years ago. So that's an important ally for Maduro's government. But now without the support of the US, it's not that Maduro had it, but now that the US don't recognize Maduro anymore as the president, I think economically Maduro is in a pretty big trouble because the Maduro government wouldn't be able to sell oil to the U.S. anymore because why does government would be the one charging?

So at this point, I think two things can happen. By leaving Maduro without the source of a big part of dollars income, this could lead the Maduro government to collapse. The other scenario is that Maduro stays in power despite this, and in that case, Venezuela will lose an important amount of oil money. So the export would fall, and the economic crisis that we've been living since 2014 would enter a more dramatic stage. I guess the only thing that matters is what the Venezuelan military chooses to do. Who are they behind? Historically, their posture has been always supporting the government since Chavez. And in previous days, they have released statements and tweets saying that they support President Maduro. Because the military is backing Maduro, probably things will continue as always.

And probably the repression in Venezuela will get heavier and harder. And meanwhile, while all of the politics of this shakes out, what are the conditions like for the majority of the people in Venezuela right now? Well, the situation in Venezuela has been pretty critic in terms of the scarcity of food, the scarcity of medicine, the hyperinflation. When you find food, if you find it, for many people it's really difficult to pay for it. Just in January, in one week, the Bolivar lost half of its value. And so it's pretty complicated for many people. Like going to a clinic could be really expensive.

Before you had to pay things in Bolivars, now you have to pay in dollars. I can give you a personal example. Please. My grandmother, she had a stroke in December. She doesn't have an insurance anymore. She has an insurance, but the insurance only covers in bolivars. And that's not enough anymore with the current inflation. So we had to pay for the fourth day that she was in the

clinic, $2,000. That maybe it doesn't sound like a lot for many people outside or many people in the US, but for a Venezuelan family, that's a lot. I mean, we had to, all the grandchildren, we had to put a little bit in order to pay for the bill of my grandmother. I mean, being sick in Venezuela now, it's really risky and expensive. Either you can die because you don't find the right medicine, or, I don't know, you will lose a lot, a lot of money. Is she okay? No, yeah, she's okay. She's better.

Okay. Venezuela's got two presidents. Nicolás Maduro is a known quantity. But who's this new guy, Guaidó? That's next on Today Explained. If you're like a parent or thinking about becoming a parent or just want to laugh at two people who are going to be inept parents pretty soon, there's a podcast called Josie and Johnny Are Having a Baby With You that you might like. Josie Long and Johnny Donahue are two funny, clueless comedians who are just learning as they go. And the show follows Josie and Johnny through their not totally planned pregnancy as they try to prepare for the birth

of their first child. In each episode, they sit down with actors and writers and comedians who are also parents to help them figure things out. They cover the funnier, messier questions from like, what is no sleep actually like? To are we allowed to politically indoctrinate our kids? Wherever you're listening to this show right now, you'll probably also be able to find Josie and Johnny are having a baby with you. In Venezuela, we are very particular people, maybe because we dream with this idea of the heroes that granted our liberty, you know, from the war, the time of Simon Bolivar. So, you know, as a society, we tend to look for a big man, always. And I think that's why, it's one of the reasons why Chávez was elected in the first place.

The people of Venezuela was looking for a savior with like a big man, this image. For many people, that's what is happening right now with Juan Guaidó. They are looking at him as this savior that is coming to fight a government that is considered a dictatorship. For other people, he is considered just a guy that is meant to be there for the human being, that is helping for a reconstruction of the democracy. And later, some other person will come in. I guess I want to know who this guy is. Who is Juan Guaido? He looks like a handsome young man.

Yeah, he's pretty young. He's 35, and he was selected in January 5th as the president of the National Assembly. And he became that day the youngest president of the Congress in Venezuela. So he made part in 2007 of a student movement against President Chavez, a student movement that was really, really important here. They protested against him and against a plan he had to reform the Constitution. And it was the only election that Chavez lost during his time in the presidency. Many of these guys that participated in this protest, many of these guys that were part of this student movement in 2007, they became legislators in 2015. They were voted to make part of the National Assembly in 2015.

And Juan Guaidó is one of them. He participated in this protest, and then he became a legislator for the state of Vargas, his home state. But before everything happened in December, this guy wasn't very well known outside Venezuela and not even inside Venezuela. But maybe that's something that is plaguing in his favor. The Venezuelan opposition had some kind of a bad reputation. Many people consider it that was completely dead. And now he's giving a new face, like a fresh face to an opposition for which many people have lost faith. And his party, is his party like a leftist party, a rightist party?

Is it moderate? Is it centrist? I would say that it's more like centrist. But to be honest, at this point in Venezuela, it is difficult to say or to um place a party or even a person a politician uh in some part of the spectrum like we know that the government they say to be leftist even though they have politics that they it's not leftist at all in my my opinion. But in Venezuela, for a long time, it has been the government and people against the government. What do you think it is that has people supporting him, that has the United States and Canada backing him, that has tens of thousands, maybe hundreds

of thousands of people out in the street? Why are they drawn to this person who's young and doesn't have a lot of experience in Venezuelan politics? I think for a while, people that go against President Maduro, they just want him to leave. They just want something different. It has been years of chavismo, of Bolivarian socialism, and I think people are just tired and their economic policies are not working anymore. And that's pretty evident, taking into account what has happened to the country, a country that is practically broken. So I think they are giving their trust to these men because they need some kind of hope. They need to believe in something, even if it's someone that they don't know very well. They want a change of government, that's for sure. And that's why they are deciding to back this guy. And regarding the international community, I think they see this guy as democratic, something that Maduro is not.

So that's why they are backing him. And meanwhile, who's still supporting Maduro in the country? I imagine he still has like some part of the population that supports him. Like every day, I think it's less and less. Yesterday, I had the opportunity of going to a rally that was organized by the government. The rally was not pretty full, but there were some people there. Those who believe that everything that is happening in Venezuela is part of an economic war. Those who believe that this is a whole plan from the international community to destabilize Venezuela.

Like, I think those whose ideology has always been Chavista and will always be Chavista, those are the ones supporting President Nicolás Maduro. Taking a tour of the streets in Venezuela this morning and being out there yesterday and seeing all the protests, what is the sense you get of how people feel right now? Are they scared? Are they hopeful? Are they anxious? What's the sentiment in the country? I think there's a lot of anxiety because people don't know what is going to happen.

The future is really, really uncertain for Venezuelans. Next hours will be crucial for the country. But in general, I have this feeling of hope. Talking with people, some of them say that they can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. This lady, she said that even though she knows it will be difficult and it won't be now, like right now, she feels that things will end pretty soon. Mariana Zuniga is a freelance journalist based in Caracas. You can follow her work on Twitter

at Mara Zuniga, M-A-R-A-Z-U-N-I-G-A. We need a call on Mariana thanks to Radio Ambulante. She was just on that podcast speaking in Spanish about Bitcoin in Venezuela. I'm Sean Ramos for M. This is Today Explained. Thank you.