Today, Explained - Weekend at Bernie’s

Episode Date: February 24, 2020

Bernie Sanders took Nevada with a landslide coalition so diverse it has left Joe Biden feeling nervous heading into South Carolina. (Transcript here.) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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20, 20 explain. 20, 20 explain. I think all of you know we won the popular vote in Iowa. We won the New Hampshire primary. And according to three networks in the AP, we have now won the Nevada caucus. I mean, he blew everybody else out of the water. Bernie was close to 47 percent of the overall vote. And the next closest candidate was Joe Biden, who was at 20 percent. And then Pete Buttigieg was at 13 percent. It was interesting because Biden's campaign was definitely kind of spinning Nevada

as his second place finish, his comeback. You know, I know we don't have the final results yet, but I feel really good. You put me in a position, you know, the press is ready to declare people dead quickly. But we're alive and we're coming back and we're going to win. But when you look at that margin, it's over 20 points. So it's kind of hard to spin that as an amazing comeback. I wrote a piece on the entrance polls that were coming out before we were starting to get final results. Bernie was leading among white voters. He was leading among Latino and Hispanic voters. He was leading among every other. He was leading among Latino and Hispanic voters.

He was leading among every other age category besides 65 and older. In Nevada, we have just put together a multigenerational, multiracial coalition, which is going to not only win in Nevada, it's going to sweep this country. And it was really interesting when you looked at ideology. He was both blowing everybody else out of the water when it came to very liberal voters. I think he had like 50 percent of people who self-identified as very liberal. But he was also leading among people who identified as more moderate or conservative. So, I mean, it was just a very decisive win. I mean, in New Hampshire, it was a narrow win. I mean, it didn't necessarily show that he had really expanded his base of support, which is kind of Bernie Sanders' main theory for how he can win the presidency is by turning out

groups that haven't typically gone to the polls before reliably. Certainly, Latino voters is a big one of these. We are bringing our people together, Black and white and Latino, Native American, Asian American. And so I think that Nevada was really kind of the best proving ground for this test of whether he could turn out a diverse slate of voters. And he proved that he could do that on Saturday night. How did he end up doing with Latinos in the end? He was over 50% among Latino voters. Biden was like the next closest,

but I think the entrance polls had Biden either in the 20s or like teens among Latino voters polling at that percent. One strategist that I was talking to in Nevada before the caucuses happened was saying, you know, the media has been focusing so much on Biden's support among Black voters as kind of providing this firewall, kind of at the expense of realizing how much work Sanders has put into the Latino community. I mean, he has hired a lot of Latino folks to be at the top of his campaign. You know, he has a senior advisor who is Latino,

who has been organizing in the community for many years. He has a lot of state directors that are Latino. You know, he has people that are not just outsiders coming into the community, kind of asking them to turn out to vote at the last minute, which I think many Latinos feel like the Democratic Party has been doing over past elections. They were on the ground 10 months ago in Nevada, you know, organizing in East Las Vegas, which is a very heavily Latino community. And so I think what they're trying to do is be talking to people early, be hearing their concerns and offering up policy positions that meet those concerns early, and just really trying to hit home that a Sanders administration would

put the concerns of Latinos forefront rather than them being an afterthought. And beyond Latinos, Nevada is a much more diverse state overall than New Hampshire, Iowa. How did that work out for Bernie? It really worked in his favor really well. And I think that, you know, next step, it's a whole different test because South Carolina is coming up. And I think that, you know, next up, it's a whole different test because South Carolina is coming up. And the conventional wisdom is that Biden has a lock on the African-American vote. He was part of the Obama administration, and Obama is still really beloved in Black communities in the South. But then you have to remember that just three days after South Carolina is really

the big day. And this is Super Tuesday. This is where a huge number of delegates are up for grabs. We have states like Texas. We have states like California, which has 400 delegates or more up for grabs. And these are states, especially Texas and California, that have heavy Latino populations. And if he does really well on Super Tuesday, we're going to have a lot better of an idea of how close he might be to winning the nomination. And this wasn't just about racial demographics. You're not the only one who cares about the working class. Most Americans believe we need

to empower workers. As a matter of fact, you're the one who is at war with the culinary union right here in Las Vegas. We are more union support than you have ever dreamed of. We have the support of unions all across this country. Yeah, but the vision I'm putting forward has the support of the American people. There's this kind of intense moment in the last debate where Mayor Pete challenged Bernie on whether or not he would be the best choice for workers in the country. Did that end up having an impact on the caucuses? So for those who might not be familiar,

so the Culinary Union is the most powerful union in Las Vegas and maybe in the state, and it's a hospitality workers union. So the Culinary Union didn't endorse anybody, but the leadership made it pretty clear who they didn't want, and that was Sanders. And the big reason that they had was they didn't like Sanders' Medicare for All plan because they were afraid that it was going to take away their union health insurance that they have fought for for many, many years.

But basically, what happened on caucus day was something really interesting. The actual union members were voting for Sanders. And reporters who were there on the ground were interviewing these folks. And a reason that kept coming up was, yes, they really liked their union health insurance, but they also saw a lot of friends and family who didn't have the benefit of this union health insurance because they weren't culinary union members or, you know, maybe they were undocumented and just couldn't get health care at all. And so they wanted to basically make sure that their friends and family had the same access to health care that they did. And they saw Sanders' Medicare for All plan as That's something we've been hearing for a long time from the Democratic establishment, from more moderate candidates about Bernie. How did the establishment react to Bernie's huge landslide win? I think that folks in the establishment are getting a little nervous. But I think at this

point, the moderate vote is still so splintered that, you know, the establishment doesn't really have an answer for Sanders' rise. MSNBC in particular had James Carville on. This thing is going very well for Vladimir Putin, I promise you. He's probably staying up watching us right now. How you doing, Vlad? Chris Matthews drew some interesting World War II comparisons. I'm reading last night about the fall of France in the summer of 1940. And the general, Renaud, calls up Churchill and says, it's over. And Churchill said, how can it be? You've got the greatest army in Europe. How can it be over? He said, it's over. Is this just the Democratic establishment having a tough time with the Democratic socialists being the undisputed frontrunner now? They're struggling with that fact, but I think that there is a decent amount of questions about what does this mean for down-ballot races? What does this mean for House races and Senate races? Because, I mean, if Republicans retain control of

the Senate and Mitch McConnell remains Senate majority leader, any of these big ideas that Bernie Sanders wants to get done, like the Green New Deal or Medicare for All, are essentially dead in the water. I mean, he can certainly pass stuff by executive order, but he is going to have as much or more opposition than President Obama had with Mitch McConnell in the Senate. And that's not going to stop anytime soon and could potentially get worse if Democrats also theoretically lost the House. After Bernie won New Hampshire, we spoke to you, but then we also spoke to our colleague Matthew Iglesias, who said that, you know, Bernie's just using these ambitious plans as a negotiating tactic. And if he wins the presidency, Matthew

believes that he might actually, you know, compromise and settle for something a little less than, say, Medicare for all, like a public option. And who knows, maybe that applies to the Green New Deal, too. Have you seen Bernie alluding to that anywhere on the campaign trail? I don't think on policy positions he has been ready to compromise. And, I mean, why should he? He's not going to necessarily, especially in a primary election, you know, gin up the base by being like, and we're going to compromise on Medicare for all. And I think if that comes out at all, it might come out more so in a general election when he, you know, has to appeal to some more moderate or Republican voters who just don't like Trump and want to see a serious alternative to Trump. We have to remember that, like, negotiating stuff in Washington and, like, promising stuff on the campaign trail are two very different things. And usually presidents, once they are elected,

tend to kind of soften their rhetoric because they're bumping into the actual rubber hitting the road of negotiating and getting policies done in Washington, D.C. Ellen Nilsson covers politics at Vox. After the break, what Bernie's win means for everyone else in the race. You know, Bloomberg, Biden, Buttigieg, Gabbard. Support for Today Explained comes from Ramp. Ramp is the corporate card and spend management software designed to help you save time and put money back in your pocket. Ramp says they give finance teams unprecedented control and insight into company spend. With Ramp, you're able to issue cards to every employee with limits and

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We had Nevada on Saturday. We had New Hampshire a couple weeks ago and Iowa. Who knows what happened there? But South Carolina is coming up this Saturday. And it seems like there's a lot riding on South Carolina. Is that right? Yeah, there's a lot at stake for all of the different candidates. OK, so the biggest one is Papa Joe Biden?

Yeah, yes. Yeah. Joe Biden is really looking to South Carolina as the place that's going to rejuvenate his campaign, which has struggled to pick up momentum up till this point. And a big reason for that is because one of his strongest bases has always been among older African-American voters. And they have a massive presence in South Carolina, where the Democratic electorate is about 60 percent African-American. So Joe Biden has really said, listen, let's wait until South Carolina to see what maybe a more diverse electorate has to say, and try to go from there. 99.9%. That's the percentage of African American voters who have not yet had a chance to vote in America. One more number. 99.8%. That's the percent of Latino voters having had a chance to vote.

So when you hear all these pundits and experts, cable TV talkers talk about the race, tell them it ain't over, man. We're just getting started. But we did just get a hint of how a more diverse electorate would vote in Nevada, and it didn't go Biden's way. Have any of the losses he's suffered in Nevada, New Hampshire, the question mark hanging over Iowa affected him this far? Yeah, totally. I think it's really shaken people's faith in him as this candidate that's framed himself as the most electable. I think multiple people I've talked to, especially critics of Biden, will say, if you claim that you're the most electable, you have to win an election to prove that. And so far in the primary cycle, we haven't seen that happen. And he's really looking to South Carolina as a place where he can prove that. And so far in the primary cycle, we haven't seen that happen. And he's really

looking to South Carolina as a place where he can prove that out. I think something worth noting is last fall, he was crushing it in the state. He had a 20-point lead in the polls. Is some of his support flagging because he maybe took the older Black vote for granted? Did he not nurture it as one should? That is the impression of many people in the state, the sense that he assumed he was going to win. So, you know, he put in maybe more time in Iowa, New Hampshire, and didn't spend as much time, as much money in South Carolina. The Post and Courier does this tracker of the 2020 candidates. And when you look at the number

of events Joe Biden has held in South Carolina, he is trailing Bernie Sanders. He's trailing Tom Steyer. He is trailing Tim Ryan, who dropped out a long time ago. So I think that gives you a sense of just how much face time he's putting in in the state. If he loses South Carolina, is that the kibosh on the Biden campaign? I think it is. I think because of the way that they frame this as the place that's going to save him, if it doesn't save him, then he is in a really bad spot. On top of that, I think right after South Carolina, you have Super Tuesday, which is just a few days after. And the assumption is that probably no candidates are going to drop out right after South Carolina because Super Tuesday is so close.

But you go into that massive race with a much weaker positioning if you do poorly in South Carolina. If Biden wins in South Carolina, what does that mean for him and Super Tuesday? It gives him a bit more momentum. I don't think it's like totally guaranteed win or victory for him moving forward. But the reason South Carolina has mattered in the past, A, for the momentum, but also because you see several states that vote later in March ending up voting the same way. So that includes Alabama and some other places, largely because the Democratic electorate in those states is very similar to South Carolina, where you have a larger proportion of African-American voters. The other candidate who seems to be betting big on South Carolina is, I wear the same tie every day, but maybe different ties, but the same style, at least, Tom Steyer.

Yes. Yeah. Tom Steyer has spent more than $18 million in advertising in the state. And on top of that, he has hired, I think, over 100 staffers, which is just the largest presence that we've seen from any campaign thus far. A big part of it is similar to the Biden logic. He's thinking that if he does really well in South Carolina, that will help him really have a springboard moving forward since he hasn't really picked up any kind of traction up till now. What about our other friends, Amy and Pete?

Amy and Pete, I think, also face a really big question, largely because both of them have struggled to get any kind of support from African-American voters, both because they've had questions about their respective records. A white South Bend police officer shot and killed a Black man. The incident has sparked outrage in the community and a call for Mayor Pete Buttigieg to take action. I will say that if anyone who is on patrol is shown to be a racist or to do something racist

in a way that is substantiated, that is their last day on the street. Amy similarly has gotten questions about her record as a prosecutor. A new Associated Press investigation suggests 2020 presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar may have sent an innocent teen to prison nearly 18 years ago. As a top prosecutor in Minnesota, Klobuchar tried the case of 16-year-old Mayan Burrell. He was suspected of fatally shooting 11-year-old Taisha Edwards.

Neither of them has really been able to, I think, make inroads with African-American voters. And when you look at a recent poll from South Carolina, from Winthrop University, I think Pete had 1% support and Amy had so little that it didn't register in the poll. So TLDR for both of them, this is a big chance to show that they have made progress on this front or an indication that they haven't. And if they don't? I think it makes it a lot harder for them to continue to grow their support moving forward.

I think it's very hard to make the case that you should be the Democratic nominee when you don't have the support of a critical constituency in the Democratic base. And what about our old friends Elizabeth Warren and Bernard Sanders? What will South Carolina hold for them? Let's start with Warren. Elizabeth Warren at this point also has been floating a little bit in the middle of the pack. And I think we'll probably see

something similar in South Carolina. She hasn't struggled as much with African-American voters as Pete or as Amy, but she also hasn't really done an amazing job effectively connecting with people and also hasn't had, I think, as frequent of appearances in South Carolina. So I'm not thinking that we'll see anything massive. It's worth noting that if anybody watched the Las Vegas debate, you saw she had a really incredible night and had a massive breakout moment as she took on Mike Bloomberg. So that performance could potentially help give her a lift in the state. We saw that a little bit with the voters in Nevada that decided at the last minute. But

what's unique to the state is that it had early voting this year. So a lot of people actually voted prior to the debate itself and weren't able to factor it in. Whereas in South Carolina, we might see more folks who actually did watch the debate and made their decision based on it. And that leaves the senator from Vermont. I mean, Bernie proved that he can bring together a diverse coalition in Nevada this weekend. Does that bode well for South Carolina? It definitely does. And if you look at where he is in the state, he is doing really well. People who are there remember 2016 when he got completely crushed by Hillary Clinton. I think she won by 50 points.

And to see him, I think, pulling in such a strong position to continuing to bring back support has been interesting for people on the ground. And I think a really good sign for his candidacy that he can continue this consistent positioning as a frontrunner across all of these different states, not just, you know, the super white Iowa, New Hampshire electorate that we've talked about before. So we've got South Carolina coming up on Saturday. Immediately thereafter, it's Super Tuesday. I feel like we've been looking at these same few faces for an eternity now. Is it all finally starting to take shape?

It feels like it is. I think right now there's still so much up in the air. But after Super Tuesday in particular, I think we'll have a much better sense of who is, you know, doing well and who might be calling their campaign quits. I would say that there is still a ton of uncertainty in the race. There's a lot that continues to change. Consider the frontrunner even a month ago. You know, Joe Biden is not looking as strong as he used to be. And I think the person who's now really being eyed in that position is Bernie Sanders. And it will be interesting to see how his candidacy continues to play out as more diverse states continue to vote and how people respond to him as a democratic socialist, which has been polarizing for some people and I think prompted questions about how he would play with a broader electorate.

Whether or not he's going to be able to continue to answer those questions will be interesting to see. And whether I think voters continue to support him and what he stands for will be the big thing that people are watching. Lizzo writes about politics at Vox. She and Ellen Nilsson were working all weekend, and you can read all the great coverage from them and the rest of our politics team at Vox.com. I'm Sean Ramos-Firum.

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