Today, Explained - What’s next for Venezuela

Episode Date: January 5, 2026

President Trump says the US will "run Venezuela." Here’s what that looks like from Caracas, given the US's history in the region. This episode was produced by Ariana Aspuru and Peter Balonon-Rosen, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact checked by Avishay Artsy, Andrea Lopez-Cruzado, and Kelli Wessinger, engineered by Patrick Boyd and hosted by Noel King. A woman in Caracas holds a portrait of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro during a rally after he was captured by the U.S. military. Photo by APHOTOGRAFIA/Getty Images. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. New Vox members get $20 off their membership right now. Transcript at ⁠vox.com/today-explained-podcast.⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The fallout of the U.S. capture and extradition of Nicholas Maduro was felt globally today. Maduro appeared in court in New York City. Also in New York, the U.N. Security Council met to discuss whether President Trump's actions were legal. Now, Colombia demanded that meeting. President Trump later threatened Colombia's president. Colombia is very sick to run by a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States. And he's not going to be doing it very long, let me tell you. Right after that, aboard Air Force One, Trump said this.

Cuba is ready to fall. In the 48 hours or so since Maduro's capture, Trump has also threatened Greenland, Mexico, and Iran. We're going to have more on that in the coming days. But today, on Today explained, we take you to Venezuela to hear how people there are reacting to Maduro's downfall. I'm listening a Hoy Explikado. Today, Explained. Anna Vanessa Arrero, freelance reporter in Caracas, it's great to be able to talk to you, especially since you filled this in on what was going on in Venezuela just a few weeks ago.

Why don't we do this? Tell me where you are right now and what's going on. Well, right now I'm in the capital city of Caracas, and it will still, you know, it's, what's going on, everything's going on. I mean, since Saturday, people have been, you know, wondering what is going to happen next. In just 48 hours, Venezuelans experienced not only the first bombing and the first glimpse of war

that they have experienced for hundreds of years now, but also they had to face the fact that Nicolas Maduro is no longer here, and that happened just in a, couple of hours. And now we are waiting to see if Delzi Rodriguez is going to finally be formally thrown in as the new interim president. To do so, the National Assembly and the government basically would have to acknowledge and accept that Nicolas Maduro's absence is permanent. And that is huge. That is an historic moment for Venezuelans who oppose Maduro, but also for those follow him. What are people in the streets saying and is it safe to be out on the street

today? It is. I mean, it is. You know, you would, what would you expect after a severe bombing in the middle of the night and then, you know, the capture of the running president? You would expect not to step outside, right? It was a surprise for sure. But, you know, I was very careful I tried to wait as long as I could to see what was going on. And then, to my surprise, no military on the streets, no cops on the streets, no danger whatsoever, people just are wondering and trying to line up in front of supermarkets, pharmacies, to get water, food supplies, whatever they could, just to avoid being off guard in case something else happened.

And the same image was repeated at the next day on Sunday. And now today, people are just trying to... to get back to normal. We see malls opening in a shorter period of time, of course, maybe for a few hours. But, you know, even defense minister, Bledmir Padino, asked Venezuelans to just continue, basically, I'm paraphrasing, but continue with their lives. And what is normal exactly after what I just, you know, explained and what I witnessed and people are trying to do their best. I still see people running first to the supermarkets and pharmacies.

You know, such calm after such storm is not something that you would expect. And some people tell me that it's not normal. I spoke to someone to an elderly woman, and she said, in all of her years, living in Venezuela and being born here, you know she felt she felt such stress that she just wanted to like go to sleep and figure it out later and and i hear a lot of people are having trouble sleeping um they're not feeling safe going to bed because you know they're scared that the bombings could resume and i mean even i have to be honest with you even when i hear a sound that you know sounds like a plane i immediately start like looking around getting nervous, trying to figure out what's going on.

All right, so here in the U.S., we're puzzling over what it means that President Trump says the U.S. is going to run Venezuela. It sounds like in Venezuela, you are no clearer on what Trump is intending. But let's talk about Delsey Rodriguez, right? Because Deli Rodriguez, as you said, expected to be sworn in. And we've known this since shortly after Maduro was captured. Who is this woman and who is she aligned with? Well, Delsi Rodriguez has been a long-time critic of not only the U.S. policies against Venezuela, but against South America.

And she has been a fierce critic of Trump and Trump's approach against Nicholas Maduro. And she has a very, very strong leftist background. She's the daughter of a leftist leader. And she was very extremely close to Hugo Chavez, who gave her the fourth chance to be part of the government with him. And then she became a strong name. She became a powerful name after Chavez died, working closely with Nicolas Maduro. So no wonder why her sudden change of tone, it's raising some eyebrows around. Tell me what she's been saying.

You say her tone is changing. What exactly has been happening with her? Well, just to give an example, on Saturday, she said. Declaring Nicolas Maduro is the only president of Venezuela. She said that what happened to Maduro was a kidnapping and it was illegal. And she urged the U.S. government and Trump to bring him back to Venezuela. And then less than 24 hours later, or maybe a day later, she sat down with all the ministers of the former Maduro's government,

and she called the U.S., invited the U.S. to work together in a joint agenda. And she didn't explain further, but I think there's no need. That phrase alone was enough to raise some eyebrows. What do you think happened exactly? Why did she change her tune? I'm not sure, but I can suspect that, you know, the threats that Donald Trump made against her, if she didn't comply, had something to do with it. I've been talking to a lot of people on the ground here, regular Venezuelans, and they have thoughts. And some of those are that she was somehow involved in what happened to Nicolas Maduro, that maybe she was part of a, you know,

a plan to us what would have power. And we don't know. We have no idea if that is true. That is like something people think. Because, of course, as I'm telling you, like no one, no one believed that she could have been the one to invite the U.S. like that. Now, let's just be super clear. That was just a small statement that she gave.

What and how this is going to be translated into the future? We don't know. I mean, is she going to, you know, change laws? to favor the U.S. Is she going to resume the diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Venezuela? We have no idea what working together on a joint agenda means.

But for sure, it's interesting, right? Yeah, it certainly is. And we do know what is motivating the United States here in part because President Trump came right out on Saturday, gave a press conference and said, We're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the

badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country. In Venezuela, how did people hear that remark? What was the response? Well, you know, people are so focused on the here and now and trying to, mostly immediately after the attack, how to survive the next few hours and days, that that wasn't part of the conversation up until very recently. I spoke to a lot, as I was telling you, I have been talking to a lot of people on the ground. And, you know, some of them are addressing that issue, but not all of them. So the ones who are tell me that, you know, that some of them say they drop the line right there, that they don't want anyone running the country that Venezuela is for Venezuelans.

And on the other hand, you have the other extreme. And it's people saying, you know what? If the U.S. wants to run the country, then great as long as they didn't do it with Nicolas Maduro. And really no one, what they all agree on is that they really don't know what that means. Running the country doesn't mean that they're going to be actively part of a government. Are they going to be advisors to the new government? Are they going to make decisions on, for example, elections, which is a huge and basic and key element right here when we address and when we see the future of Venezuela,

we don't know. And I think no one knows. And so lastly, Anna, what are people hoping for next? When you ask people what they would like to see happen, what do you hear? Well, they would like elections. And that is a very popular sense. And the mood around people who are actually talking about the future, elections are a huge part of it. And, you know, in 2024, as you can recall, Venezuela had presidential elections, and those results were not recognized by Nicolas Maduro, who claimed himself as a victor without any proof. Now, I think people, you know, have that feeling of, you know, we now need our fair

election again. I mean, we need to, and the Constitution says that in case of an absolute a total void of power in the presidency, then the vice president should feel that void and immediately in call for elections in the next 30 days. We don't know if that is going to happen because, you know, the circumstances right now are unprecedented for Venezuelans.

So we don't really know what's going to happen, but elections for sure are a huge part of the conversation. But yet, again, just, to be clear, Venezuelans right now are trying to get out of the state of shock and they're trying to get as much food and water as they can because they're accustomed to problems, turmoil and tragedy, and they feel that something else might happen. Ana Vanessa Herrero is in Caracas.

Thank you so much for taking the time Anna Vanessa and be safe, please. Thank you. When we come back over its long history, the United States has intervened in other countries in this region in very similar ways. Can you name all the countries? support for today's show comes from found found has a message for all the small business owners out there when was the last time you felt like you had your business finances totally under control that's what found is for found is a business banking platform that says they can let you effortlessly track expenses manage invoices and prepare for taxes all in one place found says found has found the tasks that create the most hassle for small businesses such as categorizing your expenses preparing for your taxes managing invoicing budgeting and says found they built an app that does it all directly from your business checking account they even say they can help you uncover tax write-offs you can take back control of your business today you can open a found account for free at found dot com that's fow und d com found is a financial technology company it is not a bank bank bank Banking services are provided by LeadBank, member FDIC. You can join hundreds of thousands who've already streamlined their finances with Found.

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It was over. It was gone. But then this little company called TiVo came along and gave people superpowers. You could pause live television. You could rewind it. You could save it and watch it later. It was incredible. And the people who had it could not stop talking about it.

This week on Version History, a new chat show about old technology, we talk about the history of TiVo. And how it is that a company whose products actually no one ever really had or used became one of the most iconic stories in tech. All that on version history, wherever you get podcasts. This is Today Explained. Greg Grandin is a historian at Yale and the author of America America. All right. So, Greg, the United States has a long history of intervening or meddling in Central and South America. Can you list every country where the U.S. has done something akin to what we just did in Venezuela? No.

We don't have enough time. We don't have enough time. I can list the countries in which we haven't intervened, which would be a couple of small British Commonwealth Islands. I mean, there is no country in which the United States hasn't intervened in South America and Central America. By some counts between 1898 and 1992, the United States successfully. was involved in over 40 regime changes. So there is no, every country in Latin in South America has had some intervention. Every country in Central America and, of course, Mexico and quite a number of countries in the Caribbean.

As you watch this news unfold over the weekend, which of those examples from the past felt the most analogous? Where did you say, oh, we're just doing this again? Well, that is what it's like living in this moment. It's a little bit of a briculage. You see elements of all different interventions. I mean, certainly the invasion of Panama, one that comes up immediately. 25,000 American troops hit the Central American country hard in the middle of the night. It was a coordinated attack with mechanized divisions, special forces, paratroop drops, and air cover.

Panama's General Manuel Noriega has taken shelter from the American force. at the Vatican's mission in Panama. If diplomacy can't move Noriega, why not try rock music, playing it at full volume outside the Vatican Embassy, where he remains hold up. Good morning, Panama! The United States sent Marines into Panama to capture Manuel Noriega,

who in 1980s during the late Cold War was a CIA asset. The problem was also that he was deeply involved with a lot of drug running. as are a number of U.S. allies during this period. But Manuel Noriega is a perfect example of this, and he had served his purposes by the end of the Cold War. President Bush announced Noriega's surrender tonight from the White House. On Wednesday, December 20th, I ordered U.S. troops to Panama with four objectives.

It was important for a number of reasons. One, it was a showcase of Colin Powell's exit strategy doctrine, that you had to have a clear idea of what you were going in for and what you were getting out for. And also it was also the first that eventually became understood as an intervention to install democracy, to defend democracy as opposed to national security or anti-communism. And it was a unilateral intervention.

Everybody, every country in the OAS, organization of American states was opposed to it. The United Nations was opposed to it. And so many observers, see this as a kind of turning point leading to Iraq in 2003 in the sense that it was the beginning of the United States acting unilaterally or outside the channels of the United Nations or the Organization of American States. You know, I'm old enough to remember Iraq. What I don't remember is the United States,

its leadership being so explicit about the oil. Disarm Iraq to free its people and to defend the world from grave danger. This weekend, President Trump came out and he said, we want the oil. That's why we did this. Yes. You know, they stole our oil. We built that whole industry there. And they just took it over like we were nothing.

And we had a president. Did that surprise you? No. And I don't think, I'm not one of these scholars who think that it's all about the oil. Obviously, oil is important. Oil plays a factor. But there's lots of ways of getting oil, right? And the Trump administration could have negotiated with Maduro

as elements within the administration wanted to do. I think Trump's talking about oil was kind of a way of providing figly for his America-first base. Why is running a country in South America first? Well, I think it is because we want to surround ourselves with good neighbors. We want to surround ourselves with stability. We want to surround ourselves with energy. You know, a lot of those nationalists, they don't want to, they don't want to regime change. They don't want to rebuild world economies and have the United States superintend a global economy.

But when you put it in tough guy terms and when you put it in the terms of plunder and we're going to take the oil, you know, it resonates with certain sectors of, of, of, of America first nationalism and aggrieved nationalism. We need that for ourselves. We need that for the world, and we want to make sure we can protect it. So I'm not saying oil wasn't important, but I'm saying Trump's move from immigration to drugs as looking for a justification and then to oil

was really just a kind of trying out different ways of justifying what they wanted to do. And it goes back to this idea of the Monroe Doctrine that the United States will police the hemisphere. They now call it the Donro document. I don't know. Let me ask you about an argument that I saw circulating this weekend. Nicholas Maduro was in power in Venezuela for more than 10 years. During this time, as you know, the economy craters.

Eight million people flee. They flee repression. They flee censorship, fake elections, people being disappeared into prisons and tortured. What do you say to the argument that this was just the right thing for the United States of America to do? you do not have to carry water for Nicholas Maduro. You do not have to support or defend Nicholas Maduro in any way to hold on to the ideal of national sovereignty. There is a system of international law which recognizes the sovereignty of nations,

the absolute sovereignty of nations, it shouldn't be left to the judgment of one nation. You know, international law is something that is always being destroyed. It's a phrase that people use. It weakens international law. International has always been weakened. But this certainly is a major step in that direction. The idea that the United States can claim for itself the sole jurisdiction and power

to decide what country's sovereignty is legitimate. And then to go a step further and then to kind of cosplay colonial plundering and saying, we're doing it because of the oil. We're not doing it because of democracy. We're not doing it because of we care about human rights. We're doing it because we want to get the oil. I mean, I think that's what Trump brings to the table. He pulls out the kind of some of the implicit or repressed premises of the power dynamics of the international order and just says them out loud.

A couple hours after this news broke on Saturday, I got a text from a Cuban-American friend, and the text just said, Cuba next. And, you know, I watched the president's press conference. Yeah, look, I've lived in Havana and I was in the government. I'd be concerned, at least, a little bit. Heard Marco Rubio speak. Cuba is a disaster. It's run by incompetent, senile men. And in some cases, not senile, but incompetent nonetheless.

A lot of people started saying that day, Cuba next. What do you think is coming next? I do think the long game ultimately goes beyond Cuba. I think Cuba may be next, but what we see in the Trump administration is an attempt to bring Latin America to heal, not just Cuba, not just Venezuela, not just Nicaragua, but also what we might call these social democratic regimes, these the Workers Party governed by Lula in Brazil and Claudia Scheinbaum in Mexico, these represent not so much confrontational challenges to the United States, but, but they, They represent a kind of untolerable independence and autonomy. You know, a country like Brazil is insisting on doing business with China, for instance, and finding ways to weaken U.S. economic influence so it could diversify its trading partners. These are totally legitimate actions.

But if we envision Latin America as a place that Trump wants to, show dominance, then they're intolerable. What it really is is about demonstrations of power and will. You know, Hague said said the other day that nothing can prevent us from doing what we want in Latin America. And Trump said effectively the same thing. These are, you know, this is really about bringing Latin America, all of Latin America to heal and bringing Trump allies to power. And Latin America really is on a knife's edge. Greg Grandin, he's a historian at Yale. America, America is the book.

I enjoyed it. I recommend it. Ariana Espudu and Peter Balan-Rosen produced today's show. Amina El-Sadi edited, Patrick Boyd engineered. And fact-checking was a big old team. I'm Noelle King. It's today explained. Thank you.