Today, Explained - Why ISIS attacked Moscow

Episode Date: March 26, 2024

The Moscow terror attack could mark the beginning of an even more brutal phase in Russia’s war in Ukraine — even if Ukraine had nothing to do with it. It's also a sign that ISIS-K is making a global comeback. This episode was produced by Avishay Artsy and Haleema Shah, edited by Miranda Kennedy, fact-checked by Laura Bullard and Kim Eggleston, engineered by Patrick Boyd, and hosted by Noel King. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

ISIS, the Islamist militant network, was looking to make a statement when it attacked a concert hall in the Moscow suburbs late last week. The audience inside just arriving for a rock concert when they heard the gunfire erupt. ISIS took credit. An affiliate of the Islamic State group says it was behind the attack. But when Vladimir Putin emerged a day later, he ignored ISIS and he blamed Ukraine. Then yesterday, he backtracked just a little bit. Listen carefully. The bloody attack was committed by Islamists from the Islamic State Organization, which is banned in Russia.

We know who committed this crime against Russia and its people. We want to know who ordered it. Putin is looking for excuses for his war in Ukraine. It doesn't change the fact that he now has a very real ISIS problem. Do the rest of us too? That's coming up on Today Explained. BetMGM, authorized gaming partner of the NBA, has your back all season long. From tip-off to the final buzzer, you're always taken care of with a sportsbook born in Vegas. That's a feeling you can only get with BetMGM. And no matter your team, your favorite player, or your style, there's something every NBA fan will love about BetMGM. Download the app today and discover why BetMGM is your basketball home for the season.

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If you have any questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connex Ontario Сегодня и что оно означает Today and what it means. after the attack on Saturday in an address to the nation. All the four perpetrators were directly involved who were gunning people down, killing people. They were found and apprehended. Pyotr Sauer is a Russia correspondent for The Guardian. He's been reporting on how Putin initially blamed not ISIS, which had claimed responsibility, but Ukraine. Putin said that it looked like Ukraine might have played a role in this,

which seems quite bizarre given that ISIS, the Islamic State, has claimed the deadly attack. But Putin in his address, he said that the four shooters who were arrested were on the way to Ukraine where the Ukrainian side, quote unquote, had a window prepared for the shooters. We have data that suggests that they were about to be moved towards the territory of Ukraine by those in Ukraine. Putin didn't outright say that Ukraine was responsible for the attack, but it became clear that he's looking for a Ukrainian angle and a way to blame Ukraine for this horrible attack. I saw this language elsewhere. Ukraine had a window for them. What does that mean? Well, no one knows exactly what Putin meant. It seems like he suggested that Ukrainian authorities or someone on the Ukrainian side helped plan this attack and that, you know,

they were waiting for the four attacker shooters to cross the border with Ukraine and they would have a safe space there. I think it's important to stress there's no evidence for any of this, of course. And Russia has yet to present any evidence that Ukraine is linked to the attack. Okay, how does Ukraine respond to Vladimir Putin's allegation? So, you know, we've seen multiple Ukrainian officials rejecting the claim. President Zelensky himself, in very strong language, called Putin a liar. He said, of course, we had nothing to do with this horrible attack.

He actually called him a bastard. So quite strong, angry language from the Ukrainian side. What happened in Moscow? It's obvious that both Putin and other scums are trying to shift responsibility on someone else. They always have the same methods. It has already happened. I think in Ukraine, people believe that Russia will try to use this atrocity, this horrible event to further escalate the war in Ukraine. We've seen some of the strongest

strikes, biggest strikes on Ukraine since the attack on Friday. Russian missiles shelled Ukrainian cities. Air raid sirens sounded in Kiev after a wave of Russian missile strikes against Ukraine on Sunday. Residents made their way into subway stations to seek shelter. I think it's important to stress as well, in Russian media,

everyone is also pointing to Ukraine as if Ukraine somehow orchestrated this attack. Okay, so Vladimir Putin is taking one line. The Russian media is falling in line behind Vladimir Putin. And then where this gets really interesting is that four men were actually caught. Four men were caught. Russia has charged them with terrorism. They appeared in court. What is the story of these men? What do we know about them? We don't know that much yet. We know they're from Tajikistan. It's a Central Asian republic.

There are many Tajik migrants living in Russia. We know that ISIS has claimed the attack, a specific branch of ISIS called ISIS-K, which is active in Afghanistan and has a history of actually recruiting Central Asian nationals and also Central Asian migrants from Russia. So this is what we know. We've seen the four suspects in court. It was clear that they have been tortured by the Russian security services. Videos have emerged on social media suggesting some of the group were tortured while in custody. One of them brought in directly from hospital in a wheelchair.

These videos have been spread by Russian security services on Telegram. In one instance, for example, we've seen Russian security services cutting off the ear of one of the suspects. In another picture, we've seen one of the suspects being electrocuted. So, of course, any statements these suspects will give, we should definitely question the authenticity and truthfulness of these statements because they could be given under duress, under torture. At the same time, it does seem like these four suspects were the four men,

the four shooters who were involved in the attack. But I think their confessions will be, and everything they say, will have this big taint of torture hanging over it. What is ISIS-K's problem with Russia? What's the fight? Yeah, so I think a lot of people don't realize that Russia is waging several wars against ISIS across at least two continents. First of all, Russia in 2015 came in to support President Assad in Syria and helped the Assad

regime to survive against ISIS. And it keeps on bombing ISIS in several places in Syria. Russia is also involved in a war against ISIS in sub-Saharan Africa, in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso. I believe that bringing Russian soldiers to our country could be a positive step towards addressing the insecurity we have been experiencing since 2015. If these soldiers come to assist us, I see no problem with that.

So, you know, Russia is seen by ISIS, by the global ISIS, as a big enemy. It's also part of the Western Christian statehood. Russia has a long history of oppression of Muslim majority republics and, you know, the Northern Caucasus. Russia has fought ISIS in Syria and Iraq. So Russia is in their crosshairs. And specifically with ISIS-K, ISIS-K has been the one cell that has been able to stage several very bloody attacks, for example, in Iran and other places outside of Europe. So for ISIS and for ISIS-K, Russia is sort of this longstanding enemy, really. And if you look at their propaganda, a lot of it has been aimed at Russia as well.

But I think many in the West, I think many in Russia just completely didn't realize this factor. Let me ask you something. So in 2015, there was an ISIS attack in France, right, on a concert at the Bataclan. There was another ISIS attack in Manchester at right, on a concert at the Bataclan. There was another ISIS attack in

Manchester at an Ariana Grande concert. I imagine when one terror attack happens in a European country, the other European countries look and they say, oh dear, it's now the time to be nervous. Do you think other European countries are looking at what happened in Moscow and saying, okay, we got to up security here? Yeah, I mean, they're already saying it. We had Jeremy Hunt, a senior UK official, saying this could happen to us. We have to remain vigilant. And, you know, if it is Islamic State, they are utterly indiscriminate in what they do. They're prepared to murder in the most horrific way. Macron, the president of France, similarly said we have to step up our security. Obviously,

France has the Olympics coming up this summer security. Obviously, France has the Olympics coming up this summer. In Germany, there are the European soccer games this summer. I think this is a wake-up call not just for Russia, but for a lot of Western countries that something like this could happen there as well." It was just a year ago that US General Michael Carrillo warned Congress about the risk posed by ISIS-K. I assess ISIS-Khorasan retains the capability and the will to attack U.S. and Western interests abroad in as little as six months with little to no warning. Vladimir Putin is blaming Ukraine.

He's saying Ukraine did it. He's saying that publicly. ISIS is saying we did it. So they're claiming responsibility. What actually happens next year? Does Russia go after ISIS, low-key go after ISIS? Or does Russia just decide, hey, we're going to let this go because we're supposed to be blaming Ukraine? Yeah, they're not an easy answer for Russia because from a political perspective, from Putin's perspective, he wants to blame Ukraine.

But blaming Ukraine doesn't solve the ISIS problem. As you said isis has claimed this uh you know we've had body cam footage shared by isis so there's very little doubt that isis the one that orchestrated this so this is the irony we have here where isis claims something but putin sort of completely ignores it and says no actually it is kiev who's somehow involved you know the question is what will will Russia do now? I think they will intensify strikes on Ukraine because it serves their political goals. I think we'll see a big crackdown on Central Asians in Moscow.

But whether Russia has the will or the resources to actually go after ISIS, that doesn't seem to be the case at the moment. And lastly, Russians are obviously reeling from this attack. Russian civilians, right? Yeah. What is likely to change for Russian civilians after this attack? I think for many, the memories of the early 2000s have come back. I grew up in Russia in the early 2000s, in the 90s as well, when there were a lot of terrorist attacks.

These were perpetrated by Chechen Islamists. And that really brought the atmosphere of fear. Russians were scared to go to public places. There was increased security everywhere. I think we'll see similar effects now. I think there'll be even more civilians. I think this will also be used to crack down even more on anyone who's against the regime.

There's already talk of bringing back the death penalty. So I think Russia's side is going to be even more militarized, more intense and less free. The Guardian's Piotr Sauer, coming up, what ISIS-K wants. Thank you. the number one digital photo frame by Wirecutter. Aura frames make it easy to share unlimited photos and videos directly from your phone to the frame. When you give an Aura frame as a gift, you can personalize it, you can preload it with a thoughtful message, maybe your favorite photos. Our colleague Andrew tried an Aura frame for himself. So setup was super simple.

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That's right. Where is Khorasan? What does this mean? Khorasan refers to parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, eastern Iran, maybe even parts of India. And it's the historical name for this region. And there are references to Khorasan in some prophecies in Islam, which suggest that toward the end of times, the righteous armies will emerge from the Khorasan region, then, you know, fight and march towards the Middle East. And a lot of these militant groups, therefore, think of the Khorasan region as being particularly holy and like to see themselves in the image of those armies that

are supposed to emerge at the end of times. These groups, ISIS original, Al-Qaeda, they often have very charismatic leaders. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi became a household name in the United States. Osama bin Laden, from him. His name is Shahab al-Muhajir, also referred to as Sana'ul Ghaffari. He's an Afghan from Kabul, very young in his early 30s. So very unlike Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi or even bin Laden, who was a very rich, rich man, you know, Muhajir doesn't have that kind of standing and hasn't made those splashy, charismatic appearances in the way that, say, you know, militant leaders have at other times, because as soon as your identity is revealed, you know, governments around the world, including the United States, you know, begin to begin to chase these leaders. And they're very likely to sort of get killed in counterterrorism action. So he seems to be very aware of that, having grown up in, in war ravaged Afghanistan.

What's the goal? What's the end game for ISIS-K? What does this group want? So, you know, ISIS-K takes its goals from ISIS in the Middle East, which seeks to establish and expand its territorial caliphate. And in line with that, ISIS-Khorasan also wants to have a large territorial enclave in the Khorasan region. But in addition, ISIS-K advocates mass casualty attacks, not only to make territorial gains, but also to punish people and entities that they see as disbelieving, as infidels. Good afternoon, and we are coming on the air at this hour with breaking news, and it's difficult.

The latest details in the bomb attack outside the airport in Kabul. The biggest, most spectacular and horrific attack that they have carried out to date is the attack during the U.S. military evacuation after the Taliban takeover in August 2021. The Pentagon calling this a complex attack just five days before the U.S. deadline to withdraw from Afghanistan. The ISIS case struck, killed 13 U.S. service members, around 200 Afghans who were at the airport. Surviving Marines gathering up the wounded and dead and hundreds of Afghans running for cover.

And then more recently, ISIS-K carried out an attack in the town of Kerman during the death anniversary of the former leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. The first blast took place about 700 meters away from the burial site of the late Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani. And was able to kill more than 70 people over there. In Afghanistan, they've been fighting the Taliban and they've been waging, pursuing an insurgency against the Taliban government. They have killed some senior

Taliban leaders. A senior administration official telling ABC News the ISIS-K terrorist who masterminded the suicide bombing at Kabul airport in August 2021 was killed in recent weeks in a Taliban operation. And the Taliban, for their part, have also managed to kill some leaders of ISIS-K in their military operations. Why did ISIS-K attack Russia? It's both surprising as well as in certain ways not surprising that they chose to strike at Moscow. Moscow is very far from Afghanistan. However, ISIS-K is a hyper-competitive group. Not only does it hold these zealous beliefs of wanting to go after infidels and disbelievers. But it also seeks to demonstrate

that it is the leader of the global jihadi vanguard. And as part of that, it has been trying to showcase its geographic reach in the region initially. We have heard of plots in Europe. Some nine people from Central Asia were arrested in Germany and the Netherlands on Thursday for allegedly planning to carry out attacks and for collecting money for the so-called Islamic State. The threat of Islamist terror appears very acute, as you can see from today's arrests. And so this attack in Russia is very much in line with this strategy of wanting to output, wanting to showcase its geographic reach, really. I place more emphasis on them wanting to be performative and them wanting to show that they can reach an important capital like Moscow. And I think we should be clear that there is some ambiguity as to whether it's ISIS-K or not, because while ISIS in the Middle East has

claimed the attack, ISIS-K specifically has not claimed the attack as yet. We only know through the US government, they were tracking plotting activity by ISIS-K in Moscow, which is why many of us think that very likely this attack has been carried out by ISIS-K. Does ISIS-K have any friends, any friendly nations? It does not. I mean, there are lots of conspiracy theories out there. But as an independent analyst who tries to track ISIS cave fairly carefully, I don't find any friends, certainly no state entities that I'm able to pinpoint. Let's go back to what happened late last week. Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for this attack. Now, most analysts at this point say, no, that is not in fact what happened. The U.S. government says ISIS-K did it. Is there any

sense in your research that ISIS-K has a side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict? ISIS-K has been mostly focused on South Asia and the immediate neighbors of Afghanistan. So in that sense, there's been chatter on Russia. ISIS-K has taken note of the warming relations between the Taliban and Russia. In the past, ISIS-K has complained about Russian support for the Taliban's insurgency. So I think it's safe to say that ISIS-K has been more animated by Russia than by Ukraine, both recently and sort of historically. What do you think ISIS-K will have its eye on next after successfully, I mean, somewhat successfully pulling this thing off?

There are signs that ISIS-K's intent and perhaps even some capability to strike in parts of Europe. And I hope that counter-terrorism authorities around the world are much more vigilant than they are currently and try to prevent these attacks. That was Asfand Yarmir of the U.S. Institute of Peace. Today's show was produced by Avishai Artsy and Halima Shah. It was edited by Miranda Kennedy, fact-checked by Laura Bullard and Kim Eggleston, and engineered by Patrick Boyd. I'm Noelle King, and you might remember that a couple of weeks ago I interviewed Charlemagne the God about some recent polling that shows Black voters saying if the election was held now, they'd vote for Donald Trump. About a quarter of those polled. This is really interesting. Charlemagne has a very big audience, and he hosts a call-in show, and he told me he's heard the same thing. So it is time for a classic

Today Explained call-in. Are you thinking about voting for Donald Trump and maybe a little bit surprised by that? Or do you know someone who's thinking about it and maybe that surprises you a little bit? That's the vote I'm in. We are focused on Black voters this time around. We're going to do lots of election coverage, of course. Our number is 844-453-4448. 844-453-4448 if you're Trump curious. Tell us why. Tell me why. We might contact you. We might use your voicemail on the show. So please, if you would, leave your number. Thank you. This has been Today Explained.