Today, Explained - Withdrawing won’t end the war

Episode Date: November 23, 2020

With two months left in the Trump presidency, the US is reducing the number of troops in Afghanistan in an attempt to end America's longest war. But Biden will still inherit the conflict. Transcript at vox.com/todayexplained. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit connectsontario.ca. It's Today Explained. I'm Halima Shah, sitting in for Sean Ramos-Furham today. Almost a quarter of Americans only know a world in which the U.S. was at war in Afghanistan. Almost half of Afghans were born into that war. And just days ago, President Trump announced that after nearly two decades of waging that war, Americans are exiting Afghanistan and only leaving 2,500 troops behind.

Andrew Quilty is a journalist in Kabul, and he's been following Trump's efforts to end America's forever war. Trump's attempts to end the war, I suppose, realistically, began before he came to office. This destructive cycle of intervention and chaos must finally, folks, come to an end. He campaigned on ending, as he calls them, the endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and in Syria at the time. We're a humanitarian nation, but the legacy of the Obama-Clinton interventions will be weakness, confusion and disarray. A mess. But his attempts started to come into effect in 2018 when he sent a peace envoy to Doha,

Qatar, to start negotiating with the Taliban. The Taliban, the Afghan government and the US envoy held three days of talks in Qatar. The talks were aimed at renewing the peace process in Afghanistan and eventually winding down America's longest war. This was something that the US had refused to do to acknowledge the Taliban regime and to negotiate a peace with them for, as we know, nearly 20 years now. After 18 months of talks and nearly two decades of war, the US and the Afghan Taliban have just signed a long-awaited deal aimed at paving the way to peace and the departure of foreign troops.

In February this year, a deal between the Taliban and the US was signed, the Doha Agreement. The US agreed to a withdrawal of all foreign forces. If the Taliban honours its part of the agreement, and that includes a 135-day initial period to reduce violence.

It also called for talks to begin between the Afghan government and the Taliban, and the Taliban would not allow Afghanistan to be used by Al-Qaeda or other transnational terror groups to conduct attacks on either them or their allies. And how was the deal viewed in Afghanistan? Initially, there was a lot of optimism with the deal. It had been so long that the parties to the conflict had refused to talk to one another.

You had the Taliban refusing not only to talk to the Afghan government, but to acknowledge their existence. And you had the American government with a similar policy towards the Taliban. But it didn't take long until that hope and that optimism started to dissipate. Another day of deadly violence in Afghanistan. Levels of violence are worse than they have been any time in the last year, and they only seem to be increasing. In the capital, Kabul, gunmen disguised as police stormed a maternity hospital.

They killed 16 people, including two newborn babies, mothers and nurses. Afghan forces have been refraining from offensive action against the Taliban as part of a ceasefire deal brokered by the United States. The Taliban deny involvement in the attacks, but there's a serious risk now that moves toward peace talks between the group and the government will be derailed. So basically, the United States makes this agreement that the U.S. will pull troops from Afghanistan if the Taliban meets certain conditions. They haven't met those conditions, and Trump is basically pulling out those troops anyway.

That's right. The U.S., NATO, and Afghan government officials almost on a daily basis complain that the Taliban are breaching the Doha Agreement, particularly by the ongoing use of violence, as well as their recent announcement that he plans to withdraw troops even before the timeline has stated. The mind really boggles to try to understand how it would benefit either the U.S. government interests or the Afghan government allies' interests by increasing the speed of the withdrawal of American forces. Have you spoken to any Taliban officials about what their plans are after US troops leave? I have, and the Taliban message has been consistent not only since the Doha agreement was signed, but since the insurgency began in the mid-2000s. They have been all along and remain unwavering in their demands for a future Afghanistan

that being not only as we've already mentioned the absence of foreign forces in the country but the implementation of a strict regime that operates with a strict interpretation of sharia law which by the way, the Afghan government and the constitution under which they run is based on a Sharia system. The Taliban, however, don't believe that it's followed according to the letter of the Quran. So what kind of position does this leave the Afghan government in? I mean, if the US forces that are backing it are exiting and the Taliban just got what it wanted through this U.S. brokered peace deal. agreement that was signed between the Taliban and the US government. The Afghan government were

forced to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners from captivity in exchange for the Taliban releasing 1,000 Afghan government officials and security force personnel. So from the get-go, the Afghan government has had very little leverage with which to work in the ensuing talks with the Taliban. And at the same time, they have had to deal with a situation where the Taliban has been steadily ramping up their violence against the government. So, not only do they have little leverage to work with, they also have a resurgent and a Taliban with a huge amount of momentum, high morale, and a Taliban which is retaking a lot of territory, inflicting a lot of casualties on Afghan forces, as well as, more recently, Afghan civilians, activists, journalists, teachers, moderate religious

clerics. And this most recent Trump announcement bringing forward the withdrawal timeline further undercuts their position. What have your conversations with everyday people in Afghanistan been like? Are they expecting their lives to change? Afghans have been recalibrating their expectations for the coming years. And for the most part, certainly those who support the government or are sympathetic towards a future of democracy are less and greater expectation that the future holds a return to a more conservative form of government, if not a complete return to the pervasive and dictatorial Taliban regime that they lived under in the late 90s. However, it depends largely on which Afghans you're talking about and where they live.

What I've just described is certainly true for perhaps a majority of Afghans living in big urban centres like Kabul, where I am, where the benefits of the American intervention have reaped rewards. In more rural areas, in the rural districts of Afghanistan, those changes have been felt far less. And life, to be honest, has changed very little in the last 20 years. The one big change that would come if an agreement was made, whether it's a peaceful one or whether the Taliban are able to take power by force, is that it potentially means the end to the violence, which is the one thing that people in rural districts have, across the board,

had to live with for the past 20 years. Andrew Quilty is a journalist based in Kabul. He hosts a podcast called Afghanistan After America. President Trump's defense secretary opposed the troop drawdown that he just ordered. So he fired him. Now the world is his oyster. That's after the break. Support for Today Explained comes from Aura. Aura believes that sharing pictures is a great way to keep up with family,

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please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Alex Ward, you write about all things foreign policy at Vox. Donald Trump has lost the election. He's only in office for like two months. So why is he picking right now to pull troops out of Afghanistan? Because he's always wanted to, but he always felt that he was a bit boxed in because of an

election coming up and because a bunch of folks, especially in the Republican Party, didn't want him to do it. But now with the election over, he has the space to actually follow through on a promise that he had made for quite some time, which is, I'm going to end the war in Afghanistan and in Iraq. And it has an added bonus, I think, in his administration's mind of boxing in an incoming Biden administration. Even though Biden has said he would want to end the war within his first term, bringing it at 2,500 troops, it makes it harder for Biden to either withdraw any, because then people will say there's just not enough around. Or of course, if he wants to add, that is politically tough for him to do. It will go against a progressive base. So there are some pros and cons for Biden, but definitely a lot of

pros for Trump in this move. Should we be surprised at all that Trump is making a major foreign policy move in his lame duck period? Yeah, we see often in past administrations that they plan for drawdowns or changes to happen right before they leave office. Obama did something similar. What you normally don't see is this kind of staff shakeup at the Pentagon that makes such a policy possible. So on November 9th, Trump tweeted that he terminated Defense Secretary Mark Esper. Mark Esper and President Trump have long been at odds. He signaled last week that he was likely done when he penned a resignation letter and had it at the ready. He didn't need it because the president Twitter fired him.

Esper fought Trump on two pretty big things. First, that he didn't want to send American active duty troops into the country to quell anti-racism and anti-police protests. The option to use active duty forces in a law enforcement role should only be used as a matter of last resort and only in the most urgent and dire of situations. We are not in one of those situations now. And then the other aspect was Trump had said, I want all U.S. troops out of Afghanistan by Christmas. And Esper was part of also that pushback. Trump had said, I want all U.S. troops out of Afghanistan by Christmas. And Esper was part of also that pushback. So Esper's out, replaced him with a guy named Christopher Miller. By January 15th, our forces, their size in Afghanistan will be 2,500 troops.

People who know him and I've talked to say he's not really a Trump loyalist, but he's someone who is sympathetic to Trump's worldview and has made statements openly to the effect that it is time to end the wars in Afghanistan and has sent even two memos to Pentagon staff making this very clear. Then two other moves, one moving Trump loyalist Kash Patel to chief of staff at the Pentagon, an aide to Devin Nunes and believe that the Obama administration was spying on Trump, and then also moving Ezra Cohen Watnick. He's again another Trump loyalist, and he's someone, if he's going into the Pentagon with any kind of an agenda, he could actually push some of that through in the next couple of months. Some people worried that this kind of quick staff

shakeup was going to lead to Trump sending troops around the country as some part of a coup. That's not the case. This is really mostly about Afghanistan and perhaps securing other foreign policy objectives down the line. Trump is already using his final days in office to tout his foreign policy record in the last four years. We saw Secretary of State Mike Pompeo do a kind of victory lap in Israel. So it is hard then to think of a more symbolically provocative final act. Mike Pompeo on a farewell tour of Israel, visiting the Golan Heights and a settlement in the West Bank. Trips never before made by a U.S. Secretary of State, a farewell gift to Israel and yet more outrage from Palestinians. What new foreign policy decisions could Trump push through now that he's relatively unrestrained?

A bunch of stuff. This is Trump unchained more than any other time we've seen. One thing he could do is perhaps go a bit harder on Iran, perhaps even attack Iran. There have been reports that Trump has asked for options to strike the country after it became clear that they had stockpiled more uranium than was previously allowed in the Iran nuclear deal, which the U.S. is no longer party to, that much uranium could conceivably make enough for two nuclear bombs. However, Iran denies that it seeks a nuclear weapon. And Trump was talked down from that. But that's the kind of thing that people are worried about, that the folks he has at the Pentagon may be more interested in pushing him in that direction, although it'd be quite the irony for Trump to draw down two wars in

the Middle East and then start a massive new one. I feel like if I was the Biden administration right now, like my palms would be sweating because it seems like this would be the point where you're transferring Rolodexes and maybe setting up your new email. But right now, Trump is contemplating potentially bombing Iran. Sure. I'm sure the Biden administration would not want to have to deal with that, especially as it's trying to deal with a declining economy and a pandemic. Again, I think the chances of that are still very extremely low, and I want to make that abundantly clear. But, you know, the chance isn't zero, especially when you have the president asking for options to strike.

Another thing, though, I guess I would say is if I'm Biden, I'm somewhat taking the Afghanistan news as a gift. And the reason is Biden has been pretty clear. Again, he wanted to end the Afghan war by the end of his first term, so within four years. But within those four years, he wants to set up a counterterrorism and intelligence force. Well, people I talk to say that 2,500 troops, which is the number that will be there, is the floor for that kind of force. So if you're Biden, you kind of had the hard stuff done for you. Like, he may have the number that he was going to eventually go to anyway now done for him. So he may have missed that political moment and, frankly, should be thanking Trump for that, if that is indeed the case.

I guess it seems sort of ironic with the Afghanistan move that it's something that Biden might appreciate, but members of Trump's own party don't seem too happy with it. Nothing about the circumstances we face today suggests that if we lose resolve, the terrorists will simply leave us alone. Why is this the particular thing that the GOP is criticizing Trump for? I find that striking too, right? That Trump can mess with the foundations of our democracy and hear nothing from McConnell, but the second Trump pulls out a couple thousand troops in Afghanistan, then you hear him complain. Look, there are a couple of issues here. One is just certain politicians believe that the military mission should continue until it's won, right? America doesn't cut and run. And the

possibility that the Taliban overtakes the government like it did before could happen again when the U.S. leaves. So Republicans don't seem to like that. And some Democrats, frankly, don't either. But it seems like Republicans want to finish the job where Democrats are saying it's time to head out. Also, no politician wants to be on record basically applauding a withdrawal in the case that things get worse. So two possible scenarios. As the U.S. leaves Afghanistan, you could imagine, as I just mentioned, the Taliban taking over the government, you know, grabbing more territory, killing scores of men, women, and children. And then some people will say, ah, you see, that person applauded the withdrawal, but look at what's happening. They are bad on national security. Another thing that could happen is terrorist groups plot attacks within Afghanistan, either on the U.S. homeland or against Americans in the Middle East or elsewhere.

And again, people come back to the politicians that applauded the withdrawal. So it's almost politically better in a way, despite the polls showing people want out of this war to just kind of say, continue the course. So you're saying that Biden might appreciate what Trump has just done, but there's also a chance Trump handed him a bigger problem? I'm not sure he handed him a bigger problem, but he did hand him a problem. I mean, let's be clear, Trump promised to end the forever wars, Afghanistan being the clearest example of it, and he didn't. I mean, drawing down to 2,500 troops is not ending the forever wars. It is continuing it. This is the greatest admission yet, and perhaps the last one

we'll get, that he couldn't do it. That despite his own views and what he really wanted, he just couldn't move the government machinery well enough to draw down to zero. And this now means Afghanistan is Biden's problem. The fourth president now to have to contend with Afghanistan. And he might not be able to end it either. Or Biden actually becomes the president to end the fight that Trump couldn't. And we'll see whether that's the case over the next four years. Alex Ward covers foreign policy for Vox. I'm Halima Shah. This is Today Explained. Thank you.