Top Story with Tom Llamas - Monday, November 4, 2024

Episode Date: November 5, 2024

Tonight's Top Story has the latest breaking news, political headlines, news from overseas and the best NBC News reporting from across the country and around the world.

countdown to decision 2024 this is a special edition of top story from nbc news election headquarters in new york here is tom yamas and good evening thank you for joining us on this exciting night we're just hours away from election day 24 the highly anticipated moment capping off an unprecedented chaotic at times exhausting election cycle and for those still undecided it's down to the wire to make that critical decision. Right now, former President Trump and Vice President Harris are delivering their closing pitches, hoping to pick up voters in the 11th hour, and with less than a day to go, it's still a toss-up on who could take the White House. Let's take you out on the campaign trail. Join us here. The candidates packing their schedules to the very end. Harris spending her day

making multiple stops in Pennsylvania, crucial swing state, as you know, with 19 electoral votes up for grabs. Trump started his day in Raleigh, North Carolina, spending the afternoon in Pennsylvania, and closing it out his campaign in Grand Rapids, Michigan. You can see the map here. They're actually crisscrossing each other. This is the former president today, slamming his opponent. Kamala broke it, and I will fix it and fast. Four years of Kamala have delivered nothing but economic hell for American workers.

You know that. Her inflation disaster has made life unaffordable. Now, this is interesting. Harris, on the other hand, with a last minute shift to her, strategy, no longer mentioning Trump by name. Momentum is on our side. Momentum is on our side. Can you feel it? We have momentum, right?

And we have an opportunity in this election to finally turn the page on a decade of politics that have been driven by fear and division. We're done with that. Now, the race will likely come down to these seven battleground states where the candidates have spent a majority of their time. time. You can see both candidates raking up their trips to the blue wall states. But look at North Carolina right here. We're pausing here because Trump has spent nearly double the number of visits there compared to Harris, and it's a state he has carried twice before. It was the only

battleground state he won in 2020. An NBC average of approved polls in the battleground state showing it's still a coin toss this late in the game. I want to walk you through this. In Arizona, Trump plus 1.9. Georgia, about a percentage point for Trump. In Michigan, Harris, Harris. 1.8, Nevada, Harris, point three. North Carolina, Trump, about a percentage point there, Pennsylvania, look at that point three, and Wisconsin Harris up 1.4. This is how close it is. The candidates within two points or less of each other, it's anyone's guess who will win. And a shocking poll at Iowa that we want to show you as well that could turn the election on its head. It was Harris, up three points over Trump within the margin of error. And remember, Trump held the Hawkeye State by

large margins in 2016 and 2020. Remember, he flipped that. And for most of this election run-up, he also won 98 of the 99 counties in Iowa in the primary season this year. So what's driving the change there? Is this poll an outlier? Or could it signal a shift in other states that we haven't seen yet in extensive polling? Something that hasn't changed much is what remains on top of the mind for voters. Look at it right here. Our final NBC News poll has Harris leading 20 points on abortion, while Trump still leads on inflation and the cost of living up by 12 points. There is a lot of the line this election, several states with a number of ballot initiatives, including abortion. That issue is on the ballot in 10 states. You see them all right here.

You can see there are a few battlegrounds as well. It's going to play a major role at the polls. At this hour, more than 77 million Americans have already cast their vote. Early voting is smashing records. 41% registered Democrats and 39% registered Democrats, and 39% registered Republicans, that is significant because usually Democrats have a bigger lead in the early vote. And a reminder, just because they register with the party doesn't exactly mean that's how they will vote this time around. This election will go down as historic for a number of reasons, including get this, the steep price tag. Presidential ads spending across the country reaching a staggering $3 billion since January of 2023. In the battleground states alone,

more than $580 million were spent just since March of this year. And as we near the end of the race, FBI and other law enforcement groups are ramping up security measures, you can imagine. The FBI announcing today they're already seen an uptick in domestic threats. We ask voters how they're feeling ahead of Decision 2024. It's just, it's too much. We're getting bombarded with everything. There's a lot writing on this one, our freedom, our safety, the safety of our families and our grandchildren. I'm excited to see the page.

and for democracy to win, and I'm nervous that something might go wrong. All right, we have complete team coverage tonight. Our reporters are on the ground in the battleground state spread out across this country with a pulse on the state of each race. But we want to start tonight in Battleground, Pennsylvania, the biggest prize of them all. NBC's Peter Alexander is there, of course, Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes. The Keystone State could be the key to the election. Let's go live to Philadelphia and Peter.

And Peter, I want to take a look at the map of where Harris has been today. She's been all over the most important battleground state, Pennsylvania. Walk us through her final day on the campaign trail. Yeah, five separate stops here over the course of this day starting in Scrant. Of course, President Biden's hometown. She went to Reading to Allen Town. She's going to wind up in Pittsburgh and ultimately here in Philadelphia, where there are already tens of thousands of people gathering. This is a big celebrity-studded, star-studded event.

Lady Gaga will be here, Ricky Martin, Katie Perry, performing a short time from now at that event in Pittsburgh. They are breaking out all the stops for this, which, as you know, with its 19 electoral votes, is the most crucial battleground of all. And critically, this is a state where only twice and last half century, as have these states, the blue wall state's done anything different. They usually are in lockstep together. They hope this will be a difference maker for her. That's even the language that Kamala Harris used earlier today when she was on the road, saying to the people of Pennsylvania that your state, will make the difference. Critically, there are some key issues that they're hoping will help them.

Late deciders, particularly some of those who supported Nikki Haley and the Republican primary. Almost 17% of Republicans voting for Haley and the Republican primary. And our conversations with senior campaign officials, they feel strongly that those late deciders widely are breaking for them right now, Tom. That could be the real thing to keep an eye on tomorrow.

Peter, before you go, in her closing messages, Harris choosing not to use Trump's name, she essentially campaigned against him up until yesterday and today. What is the significance of that decision? Well, she's still campaigning against him, but in her event earlier today, she referred to him, not as a fascist or a tyrant as she had in some of the previous events. She's held over the course of the last several weeks, but as the other guy here, her campaign is focused as they describe it on what is a fully optimistic, a positive message

in the words of a senior campaign official. Don't tell you, I spoke to a top Harris ally, only a short time ago, who said going into tomorrow, they would rather be in her heels than in his shoes. They do feel like they have the momentum right now, and it's certainly what they're leading into. One takeaway, Tom, that I think could be a difference maker is the get-out-the-vote operations, what they need, the ground game, as we describe it. Consider this. 90,000 volunteers knocking on more than three million doors this weekend alone in those key battlegrounds, and only a matter of minutes ago, Kamala Herreras, herself, knocked on a door in Reading, Pennsylvania, surprising a supporter there.

All right, Peter Alexander, on the campaign trail on this final night of campaigning. Former President Trump also making a final stop in Pennsylvania. NBC's Garrett Haik joins us tonight from Pittsburgh. Garrett choosing to spend the final day Trump on the campaign trail in multiple states. We can see here on the map. Explain to us the reasoning for each of these stops. Well, Tom, it's a mix of political imperative and superstition for Donald Trump here. the first stop this morning in North Carolina, the battleground that has been Democrats

kind of white whale over the last couple of elections. The Trump campaign has been confident of their modeling, confident in early voting there, but troubled by the picture in Western North Carolina, which was so devastated by Hurricane Helene, and by some of the demographic shifts in that state, they wanted to try to shore that up one last time this morning. Pennsylvania, as Peter just laid out, it's really the race for, it's really for all the Marbles, vote campaigns, see it as the most likely typical point state. Trump campaigning in Redding, a place where he expects to do well.

And here in Pittsburgh, a place where Joe Biden netted 150,000 votes four years ago. Donald Trump's not going to win this county. He's not going to win this city. But he needs to shrink those margins if he's going to win in Pennsylvania. And finally, he's going to appear in Grand Rapids tonight, another, you know, toss-up area in a battleground state. But also, that's a place that Donald Trump is something superstitious about. He ended both of his last two campaigns in Grand Rapids in 2016 and 2020.

He sees it as something of a good luck charm. Remember, you're talking about someone who believes he won both of those campaigns. Garrett, before you go, there was some reporting from our NBC News team that some of the Trump rallies weren't as full as they have been in the past. People weren't as excited leaving earlier than usual. Are you seeing this as well? And can we draw anything from that? I've seen it in some places, Tom, and not in others.

For example, I was in Michigan last Friday at an event. in Warren, Michigan, where Trump had held an event at the exact same location a few weeks prior. The more recent event, half as full as the first, lots of folks leaving early. One of my colleagues reported a similar dynamic in North Carolina from over the weekend. But on that same Friday, he also had a huge rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at the venue where he accepted the presidential nomination this summer. And here in the arena where the Pittsburgh Penguins play in Pittsburgh, they've got the arena to set up to hold 10,000 to 12,000 people, and it'll hold that tonight. So it's a bit scattershot.

If I had to make an educated guess at it, I think the states that have a lot of early voting, folks have banked their votes for Trump. They consider themselves done here in Pennsylvania, for example, where there's not as much early voting. This is a race all the way through Tuesday, rather than one that you complete when you turn in your ballot a few weeks early. Garrett Hague, who's been living on the campaign trail for about two years now, Garrett, terrific reporting. you. Now to Georgia, a key battleground state in the 2024 election and 16 electoral votes. The focus of false election interference claims in the 2020 election you will remember. Now the RNC and the Georgia Republican Party yet again filing lawsuits ahead of election day,

this time concerning absentee ballots. For more on the state of the race in Georgia. Blaine Alexander joins me tonight from Union City. It's a suburb of Atlanta. Blaine, I know you've been there all day. Talk to me about the lawsuits here and what any new reporting we may have. Well, Tom, we're looking at a pair of lawsuits that were filed over the weekend, essentially saying that Fulton County and a handful of other counties were acting illegally by allowing people to return absentee ballots at county government offices over the weekend. Now, it's important to note that in the state lawsuit, a judge has already kind of rejected that lawsuit saying that their actions were legal, basically saying that voters haven't told

the time that polls close on election day to return those absentee ballots, so allowing them to do so at county government offices over the weekend was within legal limits. But there is a pending federal lawsuit. There's going to be a hearing on that tomorrow. I think what's notable about this, Tom, though, is that county officials told me today that these are what they expect to be the first of possibly more lawsuits to come this week. In fact, I spoke with the chairman of the board of commissioners here in Fulton County. He says, they've got attorneys at the ready, that they almost are telling people they are ready. They understand that there will likely be more lawsuits to come and they're prepared to fight them.

It's a similar posture from what we've seen from the Secretary of State's office as well, bracing for those legal challenges in the days to come, Tom. Yeah, and Blaine, before you go, Vice President Harris's path to victory largely involves driving up the vote in the Atlanta metro region. What have you been seen as far as ads, excitement on the ground? Anything you can pull that leads you one way or the other, who has the momentum in the Peach State? You know what? Metro Atlanta really has been the focus, and that's been something different that we've seen this time around from 2020, because this time around both candidates, with a few exceptions in these closing days, really have been putting their focus on Metro Atlanta.

So we're talking about those suburbs like Gwinnett County, Cobb County, the areas that really helped flip the state blue for Joe Biden back in 2020. Those used to be reliably red areas, certainly not anymore as the state has grown more diverse. So in recent days, we've seen Trump, Harris, their surrogates really kind of hammering out the get out and vote message in these areas specifically. Now, of course, for Vice President Harris, this is the key to her victory, those types of areas. For former President Trump, he's hoping to kind of dilute her support in those areas. And as for ads, Tom, we've seen them everywhere, and they are all over Georgia TV.

Absolutely. Okay, Blaine Alexander in Georgia, time to go to North Carolina. A state former President Trump has won twice in where he spent some of his final days on his campaign. The state, just like Georgia's 16 electoral votes. According to a recent New York Times poll, though, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Trump by two points. That's within the margin of error. For more on whether or not we could see a surprise in North Carolina. Antonio Hilton joins us live tonight from Raleigh, the state capital.

Antonio, Vice President Kamala Harris' team which feared the Tar Hill State was slipping away less than two weeks ago, now saying they consider a, quote, very much in play and Trump spending more and more time there. How worried is the Trump campaign? How optimistic is the Harris team? Look, I think the Trump campaign's mood is pretty evident. just from the number of times they have come here and circled back again and again in just the last few days. What Democrats tell me is that that tells them their internal data must have some flashing red lights in it. And the Democrats are feeling really good now. And in fact, I got the

chance to talk with Governor Roy Cooper here, who is close with Vice President Harris. And he told me these are the factors. They have seen data in the last few days of early voting. The black communities in North Carolina are coming out strong, that the youth vote was finally coming coming out strong. After the early period of early voting, had Republicans coming out stronger first. Even in Hurricane ravaged the western part of the state, the Buncombe County area, Yancey County, some of these parts of people were really concerned people weren't going to make it to the polls. People are overperforming there. And then Democrats here are also closely watching that eye-popping Iowa poll. And you might think, well, what does Iowa have to do with

North Carolina? Well, there are rural white communities here that match part of the electorate there. their thinking is if she is overperforming with those voters, she very well may be overperforming with people in those communities here. And if you take them, add them to the historic black turnout from 2008 when Obama took this state. If she can combine that with the youth vote, she might be able to recreate that moment and make history tomorrow night, Tom. And Tonya Hilton's going to be a nail-biter there in North Carolina. We can't wait to see what happens. Turning now to Battleground, Michigan, 15 electoral votes where Kamala Harris made her closing pitch to voters there yesterday. And as we mentioned earlier, where Trump will hold this

final rally. The latest New York Times, Santa College Bowl here, it is showing Trump and Harris neck in the Great Lake State. If you take a closer look, you'll see the gender gap we've been talking about. Harris with a 17% lead among women, Trump with a 21% lead among men. NBC's Jesse Curs joins us live tonight from Grand Rapids, Kent County, the River City, where former President Trump is set to speak tonight. Jesse, Vice President Harris made it a point in Michigan to close out her campaign in a shore force with other women, including events with Oprah and Michelle Obama, Gretchen Whitmer. Talk to us about the pitch to voters in a state where abortion is not on the ballot. Yeah, and that's something we've asked the campaigns about as well, Tom, because

for those who may not remember in 2022, they enshrined abortion access into the state constitution here in Michigan. And so it is not something that is directly on the ballot, but I talked with Governor Whitmer yesterday at a canvassing event in the Detroit suburbs, an area where Democrats are trying to make further inroads and potentially capture that segment of the electorate in this state. And the governor said that if Trump is back in office, what comes next? Where do we go with a potential federal abortion ban? Something like that. And so those are the kinds of questions that Democrats want voters thinking about in this state where the issue is not directly on the ballot. So we will see if that can make a difference here in the state. And as you mentioned, both campaigns are making a strong final.

push here. This is going to be the former president's third time finishing a presidential campaign in this state in the same city here in Grand Rapids and the western part of Michigan. He had his final event in 2016 here, his final event in 2020 here. And he wraps up his third and what is expected to be his final run for the White House here tonight. And this is a state. He won by around 10,000 votes as razor thin as you can imagine in 2016 before Joe Biden was able to retake this for Democrats and reinstate it in the so-called blue wall with these Midwestern states. So we will see what happens in the next 24 hours or so. A couple of things to note, Tom, there are any number of issues, constituencies up for grabs here.

Something that we're going to be watching closely, the Arab-American vote in the Democratic primary, around 100,000 people voted uncommitted, voicing protest against President Joe Biden for his administration's handling of the war in Gaza. Jill Stein, a third-party candidate is making a concerted effort to draw support from that community. She is going to be in Deerborn, Michigan. We are told tomorrow night, which is a huge concentration for that community for her election night event. That is going to be in Deerborn Michigan tomorrow night. So that's something to watch. Can that be a factor? Or does it pull away from both of those campaigns among many things that we'll be watching in this state?

Tom back there. Jesse Kirsch, we appreciate you. We want to move just a little west right next door. Another key Midwest battleground there in the blue wall that Jesse was talking about, Wisconsin. And of course, it's 10 electoral votes. It's a state that Joe Biden narrowed. Flipped in 2020 after Trump won there in 2016. Both time the margin of difference about 20,000 votes. Polls show the race there tightening, though still within the margin of error. This is nearly 1.5 million voters have already cast or mailed in their ballots in the state, and have about 3.6 million registered voters statewide. Shaq Brewster joins us tonight from West Alice, Wisconsin. It's a suburb of Milwaukee, and Shaq, all eyes will be on Milwaukee, right? Election officials are bracing for another

long night. Do we have any idea when we might get the voting for Milwaukee? We remember it stretched out into the next day in 2020. Well, Tom, I'll tell you this morning, I spoke to Milwaukee's main elections clerk. And this afternoon, we heard from the state agency that runs elections, and their message is extremely clear. There will be a long night of counting here in the state of Wisconsin. And they point to the significant early vote that you just mentioned. You mentioned Across the state, about 1.5 million people have already cast that ballot either early in person or returning that mail-in ballot. That's about 40% of the state. But the thing is, here in Wisconsin, clerks cannot start processing those ballots until polls open on election day.

So that's a lot of vote that they are not able to start opening envelopes for or running through tabulators until polls open tomorrow. So that's going to lead to significant delays. If you look historically, it was the 22 midterms. We saw that Milwaukee wasn't able to process those ballots until the middle of the night, about 12 midnight, 1 a.m. Eastern time. When you go back to 2020 election, it was until about 4.30 a.m. Eastern time that the significant amount of absentee ballots were able to be processed. So clerks are saying despite the increase in staff that they have,

despite the high-speed tabulators that they have, it's going to take some time to get that ballot. get those votes out and to get that vote counted, Tom. Yeah, Wisconsin and Milwaukee, we're going to have to be patient. Okay, next over to Iowa. Yes, we know it's not technically considered a battleground, but as we mentioned at the top of the hour, one that could be in play tomorrow night. The Des Moines Register poll shows Harris with a three-point advantage over Trump.

That's within the margin of error. That particular poll has proven accurate in the past. Take a look at this. You can see the final poll on the left and the actual election results on the right. They've been pretty on the money. Barrett joins us now from Dubuque, Iowa. More polls can be wrong. The polling results are stunning, though.

The voters you've been talking to in Iowa, remember, Iowa has those six electoral votes. If Trump loses Iowa, it actually changes the entire map for him. What are voters you're talking to, you're saying? Do they believe the polls right? Look, I've spent a lot of time reporting in Iowa. I lived here during the 2020 election, and Iowans are used to the political spotlight,

but not at this point in the election cycle. And so looking at this poll and talking to voters here yesterday and today, they were just as surprised as we were, quite frankly. But it's really important to note how strong and how right to this pollster specifically usually is. She usually puts out outlier polls, and she's been right nearly every other time before. And so that's why voters are seemingly taking it seriously. I think it's important to note here in Iowa, they passed and enforced a strict six-week abortion ban this summer. And so we're seeing the shift in polling come from senior women and independent women. And that's a shift from

four-point lead from former President Trump back in September that same poll. And so it's seemingly coming from those women. But this is something that could be a big implication, as you mentioned. Another point for former President Trump here, they did increase, Republicans increase their voter registration advantage by 170,000 voters just from last cycle. And so as I've been talking to both Democratic and Republican strategists here the past couple of days, they all seem to think that the poll might not be spot on, that Trump could win by a smaller margin than before. But either way, that does potentially have implications in similar

battleground states with similar electorates to hear in Iowa, Tom. Mora Barrett, with a lot of important reporting out of Iowa. Okay, we're going to strap on our boots and head out west. We're heading to Arizona now, a state where Trump has had his strongest lead in polls among all battleground states, 11 electoral votes there. The New York Times, Sienna poll showing Trump with a four-point lead over Harris. This despite a win for Democrats in 2020, it was very, very close, though. I want to get over to NBC's Liz Croix, who joins us tonight from Maricopa County, the Battleground County there at a ballot processing center where they are gearing up for election day. Liz, walk us through what you're seeing there and tell us how early voting is looking.

Hey, Tom, yeah, we definitely need our boots here. I'm sure you remember very well all of the protests that happened at this very facility four years ago when Biden won by just over 10,000 votes here in Arizona. Right now, Tom, more than 2 million people statewide have turned in their ballots are voted so far, 1.5 million here in Maricopa County, and those votes are being processed right inside this building right now. The county does begin processing those ballots as soon as they get them. And Tom, a big part of the messaging from the county right now has literally just been transparency. There are 24-7 live-stream cameras inside of this facility so anyone around the world at any time a day can watch those ballots being counted. That all

stems from four years ago when there were so much questions and claims of vote. or fraud because of how tight the race was. And so right now the county is trying to say, here's the process, where as transparent as possible, so that they can kind of calm people's nerves because they are anticipating that it could take several days again for all the ballots to be counted and for us to get results in these races, Tom. And then, Liz, the border is a huge issue, obviously, in Arizona. Could we see a split-ticket scenario where voters vote for Representative Gallego, who's running for the Democrats for Senate, but also vote for former President Trump?

Absolutely. Tom, time and time again, almost every single voter we talk to here, we ask them what their top issues are. It's abortion and it's border security. And both of those issues are literally, not just figuratively, but literally on the ballot, on propositions. And so we're hearing from women and voters who say they're coming out because of abortion, and that is heartening for Democrats and for the Harris campaign. But we are hearing from a lot of people who say that they are driven to come out here because of immigration. And I've talked to voters who are those split-ticketers, including one woman who said those are her two issues. She's never voted for four, 47 years old.

This is the time she decided to come out and vote, and she decided to vote for Trump and vote for the abortion measure. And in that New York Times poll, you referenced Ruben Gallego is ahead of Kerry Lake by five points. So I think it's very likely we could see some split ticketing here in Arizona. Okay, Liz Kreutz. We appreciate you. We thank you for that. We want to head to Nevada. I hope you brought some cash. We'll place some tables there in the Silver State. Democrats are trying to overcome a decided GOP advantage in the early vote. Republicans outpacing them in early voting by 4%. That's incredible.

But they're hoping star power and a strong ground game machine will help them across the finish line tomorrow and really drive out the vote in Clark County, which could make or break the Democrats in that state. David Noriega live for us from a Harris-Walls campaign rally in Sin City tonight. David, talk to me about why Dems are so worried about that early vote out there. Yeah, Tom, so just first of all, briefly to explain where I am, this arena will hold the Harris Walls rally with, like you said, a lot of star power. Eva Longoria, Christina Aguilera, Los Tigres del Norte, legendary northern Mexican band with a big appeal among Mexican Americans in the southwest. And as far as early voting, Tom, first of all, Nevada is unusual because for most swing states, you can't really draw conclusions from the early vote. Nevada is different because historically, a very large percentage, up to 80% of all the votes cast are cast in this state early.

So it's very important to look at where those numbers are at. And very, in a way that's very unusual, the Republicans are ahead by more than 40,000 votes. That's about 4%. So the Democrats find themselves in the unprecedented position of being the ones who have to scramble in the last 48 hours before the election to get out the vote,

to make sure that people take their mail-in ballots to the mailbox, that they go in-person to the polling locations and close that gap. Now, nobody knows, Tom, how that will end up. I've talked to people on the Republican side. They're very heartened by those numbers. They think that those numbers are going to hold after tomorrow and that they are going to flip Nevada red for the first time

in several election cycles. When I talk to people involved in the Harris campaign, they are confident that the legendary ground game in Las Vegas, the turnout machine that they have from the culinary union, from the Harry Reid machine, will be enough to close that gap with the Republicans. Either way, Tom, this race is incredibly close in this state, closer than it was, even last election cycle,

which was very close. So nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow and in the days that follows. Last thing I'll say, Tom, Nevada takes a bit of time to count the vote, so we may not get a result tomorrow. We may have to wait for a few days. Yeah, I was going to say Nevada's going to be so fascinating, but we're really not going to know until very late

or early Wednesday morning. David Noriega, great reporting out there. Enjoy all those musical acts. All right, our special coverage ahead of the election is just getting started in addition to the president. There are key Senate and House races, of course, which could shift the balance of power. breaking it all down with Ryan Nobles as millions of voters have already cast their ballots.

He seems to care about people where Harris only cares about getting to the presidency. I think that it's going to be hard to break the barrier for a woman to be the president of the United States of America. But I think if anyone can do it, it's Kamala Harris. All right, welcome back to a special edition of Top Story. The countdown to the 2024 election is now just hours away. Tomorrow voters will decide the balance of power in Congress with dozens of Senate seats and every seat of the House of Representatives up for grabs. I want to bring in Ryan Nobles, who covers Capitol Hill for us. He's going to break it down for us. Ryan, let's start in the Senate, right? And we've unassigned those big races in the Senate here, Republicans with 49, Democrats with 43. Let's talk about first the big race in West Virginia.

What's happening there? And explain why this might be a layup for Republicans. So the issue here is West Virginia is a very Republican state, right? Donald Trump could win here by 20 points. For a long time, they were represented in the Senate by Joe Manchin, who is a very independent senator. In fact, he's not even a Democrat anymore. He views himself as an independent. Manchin chose not to run for reelection.

Jim Justice, who's the popular Republican governor there, specifically recruited by Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump to run. He's in the race. He should win this. very easily, which gives them one of the two seats they need to take back control. He also has a very popular dog, right? That's right, baby dog. Baby dog that people love.

So we're going to put West Virginia in the column for Republicans here. They're now up to 50. Let's talk about what's happening in Montana here. The incumbent John Tester versus Tim Sheehe. What's happening here? So this is another really red state. Donald Trump could win here anywhere between 15 to 20 points. We're also seeing that they're having a population boom in Montana,

in many ways attributed to the really popular show, Yellowstone. And many of the people that are moving to this state, actually Republicans. And Tim Sheehe is actually one of them. He is a rich businessman who moved to Montana about 15 years ago. He is a prize recruit by Republicans at former Navy SEAL, run a very competitive race. And most polls show him ahead of John Tester, in some cases, outside the margin of error. And the spending in this race has been wild, right? Tell our viewers. Oh, yeah. I mean, hundreds of millions of dollars. For a state that isn't that big of a media market, if you go to Montana and I've been there twice now over the past year, you literally cannot

turn on the television, look at your phone for even a few seconds without seeing an app. So we put Montana in the Republican columns. Walk me through the math here. I don't understand where do Democrats see they could get the majority in the Senate. So this is why everyone is really bullish on the Republicans taking control of the Senate just because of where the battlegrounds are here. And this really means at this stage of the game, if there's any way for Democrats to hold on to control of the Senate, they basically have to run the table in the blue wall. That means they've got to pick up Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. Also, and Nevada, there are only other hope under this scenario.

Let me give you all these states to see what happens. And again, these are competitive races, right, Ryan? These aren't layups. They could lose any of these, right? So we're still at 49-51. What's the other seat they see that they could pick off? So we have to go to Texas to see, to make that happen. And you notice that we've already started with Texas as kind of...

Yeah, we have to go down here. We assume that that was a state that Republicans would win. But Colin Allred, who is the insurgent candidate there, Democratic congressman running against Ted Cruz. Cruz there is run a very competitive race. Many view that race within the margin of error right now. Talk about a race where hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent. Texas is one of them. So the scenario for Democrats would be they lose Montana and they lose West Virginia, but they pick up Texas and Kamala Harris wins. 50-50, they still control the Senate. Okay, let's talk about the House

races here and what's going on in the House. There are some competitive districts, right? We're talking about one in Virginia and one in New Mexico. We'll start in New Mexico. Talk to us about what's happening here with the race over here. I'm sorry, I was in Arizona, just over New Mexico, right down here in this district, District 2. So the big thing about the House is that many of the most competitive races are not in the places that the presidential campaigns are competing. So each one of these candidates is running their own race. Gabe Vasquez is the incumbent here, but this is a district where President Biden won by a couple of points. Very competitive. Obviously, immigration is a huge issue that they're talking about in this particular district.

very different than a race that you also want to talk about, which is in Virginia, which talks about why the dynamics are so different in the House. Yeah, and Trump actually went to New Mexico. People were wondering why, in part, it was to campaign. That race as well. Let's go to Virginia, and it's Virginia 7. Look at that. Hit it right on the money, the bull's eye.

There you go. Talk to me about what's happening here. So this race is interesting because there was a very popular member of Congress, Abigail Spanberger, who represented the 7th District. She's now going to run for governor next year. Enter Eugene Vindman. Of course, his brother famously testified in the impeachment hearing of former President Trump running against a veteran and Derek Anderson.

They're both veterans, but this is another race. This is kind of the Washington, D.C. Xerbs, not really the suburbs, a bit further south, closer to Richmond, where you have seen millions of dollars poured into this race. And this could be a bellwether. If we're watching the returns start to come in, this is probably a slight edge for Democrats. If Democrats are losing this seat and it looks like Anderson's going to win easy, it could be a long night for Democrats. Yeah, it's just under the northern suburbs there.

We'll see how those votes are coming out. Ryan Noble's, we thank you for all that. We appreciate it. Special Pre-Election Day coverage continues. Decision Day just hours away. Former President Trump spending a significant portion of his time. In North Carolina, a state he won twice. Is the Tar Hill State slipping from his grasp?

And what could that mean for his path to victory? Stay with us. We proudly voted for the first woman president, Kamala Harris. When he was in office before, he actually did things that changed positively for the economy we live in. Okay, those were some early voters in the key battleground state of Michigan with less than 24 hours before the first polls closed on Election Day. We are back with the view from the campaigns. I want to bring in Democratic representative from Georgia, Nekima Williams. Representative, thank you so much for joining us. We really do appreciate it. Vice President Harris is all in on Pennsylvania today. Just moments ago, we got video of her knocking on doors and greeting voters, which was quite a moment, I'm sure, for those voters.

One of the Democratic senators from that state, John Federman, made some comments that want to get your reaction to. Let's listen. And I've been saying this, whether it was Biden or then became Harris, I said it's going to be very close. And Trump definitely has a connection with voters here in Pennsylvania, and that's why it's going to be close. But there's a lot of tremendous amount of energy for Harris as well, too. You know, Federman has made it a point to say that Trump has this connection with Pennsylvania voters. Not only in that interview, he also repeated it in the New York Times Magazine. Has Vice President Harris made the case with the voters?

She'll need to pull off a win in the Keystone State? Well, I know what is happening here in Battleground, Georgia. And what we're seeing is excitement on the ground. We're filling the energy. We saw it in our historic voter turnout in early voting. And what we know is that we always knew this will be a close race. to keep talking to every voter. Polls open at 7 a.m. here in Battleground, Georgia, and close at 7 p.m. And we're going to continue having those conversations. I will be up bright and early.

I'm here tonight in Park Tavern and Midtown, Atlanta, talking to voters tonight. But we understand that this was always a close race and that the vice president was the underdog. But she has shown that when voters show up and see the options on the ballot, they choose her time and time again. and we have to keep that momentum going until the last voter has cast their vote tomorrow. I'm excited. I can't wait to see the results as they come in tomorrow night because I feel the energy

and I know that voters understand that there is only one candidate on the ballot who is not fighting for themselves and their billionaire friends and that's Kamala Harris. She's fighting for all Americans, not Democrats, not Republicans, but all of us. And that's what I'm looking forward to seeing a new way for it with Kamala Harris is our next president. Talk to me about early voting there in Georgia.

You worried it all about what seems to be excitement on the Republican side as well, not only in Georgia, but in other states like Nevada as well. Has that surprised you? Because usually Democrats own that early vote. So what we've seen is also a 56% turnout in women voters. And so I'm excited about that because we understand that reproductive freedoms are on the ballot. And while this issue transcends gender lines and partisan lines, we know that more women are turning out to vote because our freedoms are on the ballot. bragged about overturning Roe v. Wade, and Kamala Harris will restore our reproductive freedoms. That's what I'm hearing and filling on the ground here in Battleground, Georgia. And we've seen it in states across the country. When reproductive freedom is on the ballot, voters are choosing to stand up for their freedom. And Kamala Harris is the only candidate

standing up for our freedoms. So I won't read too much into where those votes are coming from, because when you go into that ballot box, your vote is secret. And we even have our former lieutenant governor, a Republican, who is out on the campaign. trail stopping for Kamala Harris. And I've seen a lot of turnout in his area of the state up in Forsythe County. So I don't know who those votes are turning out for just because you're in a red area of the state. Congresswoman, I want to ask you about, yeah. We know that we have votes on every side. I hear you. Congresswoman, I want to ask you about something Vice President Harris said when she was asked about her vote, right? She voted by mail and was asked about how she filled out

her ballot in California. I want to play sound of that. But I want to set up the soundbite before we roll that. She was basically asked about Proposition 36, which is a ballot initiative that would impose tougher sentences on people convicted of retail theft and drug crimes. Here's the question and the answer. Madam Vice President, have you returned the ballot to California and how did you vote on Prop 36? So I have, my ballot is on its way to California and I'm going to trust the system that it will arrive there. And I am not going to talk about the vote on that because Honestly, it's the Sunday before the election, and I don't intend to create an endorsement one way or another around it, so, but I did vote.

Congresswoman, I've got to be honest with you. I don't understand that at all. She's running to be president, and she doesn't want to tell the public how she's voting. Explain that to me. Well, Kaeple Harris has been clear all along this. She is going to be a president for all the people. She is not looking to dig into the division of Donald Trump and how he continues to lead this country.

Regardless of which side of the issue you might have landed on as a Californian on this proposition, Kamala Harris will still fight for you. And so she didn't want to weigh into any division that might divide our country as we're moving into election day where she is looking to unite our country. So I understand where she's coming from. It wasn't on my ballot here in Georgia. We had our own ballot initiatives. But what we know is that when Kamala Harris is in office, she's going to represent all of us,

regardless of which side of any issue you stand on. She'll be a president for all. American. Congresswoman Nikia Williams, we thank you so much for joining Top Story, and we thank you for your time on a busy pre-election night. And for the latest on the Trump campaign, I want to bring in Brian Lanz, as senior advisor to the Trump campaign. We thank you so much, Brian, for joining us tonight. Former President Trump held a rally in North Carolina this morning. Following three rallies in the Tar Hill State over the weekend, is the campaign getting a little nervous about North Carolina? That was the only battleground state you guys won in

2020. Are the poll numbers scaring you a little bit? of all, thank you for having me. No, listen, there's only two ways to run in a political campaign. You're either running hard or you're running scared. In this campaign, the Trump campaign, makes a decision to run hard. And what does that mean? That means visiting North Carolina. That means visiting North Carolina. That means going to Florida and New York. I mean, we're having a campaign all over the country, but we're also in the key swing states. And you know, we're very optimistic about the information we see coming out of the early vote in North Carolina, in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. So no, you know, we're running hard and the other

is running scared. And I do want to sort of go back to what the Congress ruling said about Kamala Harris and the proposition. Let's be clear. Not voting for that proposition, not disclosing what it is, is just highlighting the fact that Kamala Harris is pro-crime. Even the liberal governor of California, Gavin Newsom, recognizes that crime is at a dangerous level in California, and he's taking the position to get behind this ballot initiative and convince California that crime is out of control, and this is the next step to fix it. Kamala Harris failed the leadership test once again, just now to say, California's unsafe, and Democrats have found a solution, and she doesn't want to get behind it.

Yeah, Brian, I don't think you can say a candidate is pro-crime unless they are officially a criminal running on like a mafia ticket. So I just want to correct you on that there, right there. Let's talk about the Iowa poll. Hold on, Brian, let's just stick to the facts here. Let's talk about the Iowa poll. It came out over the weekend, showing Vice President Harrison the lead in the Hawkeye State. It contributed largely to a surge in women voters. The poll's considered pretty on the money, right?

It's been on the money for President Trump when he's won in Iowa. Is the campaign in trouble there, or do you think this is an outlier? No, let me correct you. It hasn't always been with Iowa. Let's remember in 2016, just before the Iowa caucuses, it had President Trump, the same poll had President Trump winning by 10 points in Iowa. And Cruz won, right? And Cruz won.

So, I mean, you have to be factually accurate. So sometimes they get it right and sometimes they get it wrong. The bottom line is, I tend to think they got it wrong on this one. We've never seen anywhere in any of the data where Kamala Harris is winning white males over 65. It just doesn't exist in any of the data, except in Ann's poll. So I'm a little bit confused. She's a woman who, out of 20 times, she'll poll and get it right in 19, and this appears to be the one wrong that she gets out.

It's an outlier, and we're just moving on, because nobody believes Iowa's – I've talked to people in Iowa, nobody leaves Iowa's a threat. It's going to fall under President Trump. Brian, you know, the Harris campaign is touting a superior ground game in some of the battleground states. We were hearing at the top of the broadcast. I don't know if you heard it, especially in a place like Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign has won campaigns, and they've won all.

obviously, the presidency in 2016, and they were criticized for their lack of ground game, but they made up with it with the enthusiasm and the electricity of their voters. What do you think is going to happen in 2024? Did the Democrats outmaneuver you in the battleground states when it came to that ground game? No, listen, you've got to look at the data. Let's look at Pennsylvania directly. Pennsylvania, Republicans, has made up a 20-point edge on early votes. What does that mean?

That means the Democrat Party is down significantly on their early vote throughout Pennsylvania. They're out significantly with the African-American vote. President Trump is up with the African-American vote. So if you look at Pennsylvania, I'm not going to surrender anything. They did not outwork us. We're outworking them as well, and you can see them the results of their early vote. You know, Democrats usually win the early vote or they carry the early vote three to one. They're far below that number now.

And that's because of our ground-regating effort. That's because of our superior message. And that more importantly, that's because the voters see President Trump as the change agent and they want to change for the last four years. There's two outcomes, right? You either win this thing or you lose this thing. If you lose this thing, do you think former president, Trump will peacefully concede that he lost the election?

Listen, I think he's answered that question time after time. If it's a fair and free election, then yes, you'll have a direct answer to President Trump. But what we've seen in Pennsylvania is we've seen genitigans taking place. We've seen people committing voter registration fraud to the tunes of over 5,000 voter registration fraud. So when you commit voter registration fraud, it's usually with the intent to purpose to commit election fraud. So we're going to highlight that. We're going to continue to highlight that. But we've fallen under the same message you've always said.

If it's a fair and free election and the Dems don't do anything, any shenanigans, and we don't have any of these frauds taking place, then we know where President Trump stand. He's going to support the election. And if the fraud is happening, the courts will be there to make sure it doesn't happen. Okay, Brian, we appreciate it. The countdown of the election continues. The candidates making their final pitch to voters. Will they be able to move the needle for those still undecided? Our political experts, join us next.

with our countdown to election day. I want to bring in our political pros tonight. Carlos Crubello, he's a former Republican congressman of Florida and an NBC news political analyst, a good friend to Top Story. Julian Castro, he's the former housing and urban development secretary during the Obama administration and an NBC news contributor. Scott Taylor, he's a former Republican congressman from the state of Virginia, and Julie Roginski, she's a Democratic strat and author of the salty politics newsletter. We thank you all for joining us tonight on Election Eve. So Julie, don't get salty tonight, but I do want to start with you. Why do you think Vice President Harris has decided

not to say President Trump's name in these final days? I think she's looking forward. I think she's trying to make the point that this is about the future. The election is about her and her plans for the future. As she always says, we're not going back, talking about him. We'd be talking about the past. She wants to say that she's going forward with her plans for the country, and that's what she wants to focus on. I want to show our viewers a map of where the candidates have been. We've been showing this throughout the broadcast over the last few days here. Now, you guys can look up closely here. This is Harris, Trump, and both of them over the last final days, the last three days here.

Carlos, so Trump keeps coming back to North Carolina. He adds extra stops there. This was the only battleground state he won in 2020. What do you think is going on there? What do you think they see in their internal polling? Well, Tom, clearly they're nervous about North Carolina and Donald Trump at one of his rallies kind of confessed. Oh, I came back here because I looked at the numbers and he himself said he was worried. So they're worried about. about that. Harris is worried about Pennsylvania. We know that African-American turnout hasn't been what it's been in the past. And in Philadelphia, that's critical for her if she's going to carry that state. So you can really see where they're going on offense, Harris and North Carolina

and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, and they're both worried about those states as well. Let's put up an average of the battleground polls for our viewers here. They can see where the race stands right now, at least according to an average of the polls. Guys, look, this is so close here. Julian, you're somebody who knows politics inside and out. You've won local races, bigger races. What do you see here? I mean, can you draw anything from this or no? Does anything scare you?

Does anything get you excited for Democrats? I mean, they're so close, Tom, that I don't think anybody can reasonably say with a ton of confidence that they know what's going to happen. If we take those numbers at face value, though, I think that's encouraging for Kamala Harris. Her clearest path is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If she can lock down those three states, it's over. And in most of the polling averages, she's either just a little bit above, a little bit ahead, or right there tied.

We live in a new cycle where things come and then they're gone and they're forgotten and things happen real fast. With the issue over Puerto Rico and Pennsylvania, do you think it makes a difference in that Lehigh Valley and those swing counties in Pennsylvania? You better believe it does. Yeah, I think especially for the Puerto Rican community. I mean, that's a community that has a strong sense of identity that's born through generations of, I think, feeling shafted in many ways by the mainland.

And even more recently, when Trump went down there and threw paper towels at the people during Hurricane Maria. So there was already a built-in base, I think, of wondering what their place was and how the Republican Party has felt about them and not feeling good about Trump, probably because of his economy message, it started to move some people over to consider him that maybe hadn't before. That comedian's comment in Madison Square Garden, I think, tilted the balance back toward how they felt about him before.

And I think generally turned a lot more Americans off because it reminded them of the hate and the divisiveness. That's why he got rejected four years ago. Scott, if I'm a Democrat and I'm looking at those early voting numbers, I'm getting nervous, right? Because Republicans are turning out in a way they never have before. What does that tell you? Well, I mean, there's no question that they're not turning out

like the Democrats thought they were. And there's concern, and you hear it from Democrat strategists as well, and Republicans are energized and motivated, even in my state of Virginia, of course, the early voting numbers for Republicans is significant. So, I mean, listen, I, Julian, I think he's correct that no one can speak with, you know, the utmost confidence about the polls and look in the numbers that you showed saying, hey, they're going to win or not win. But I take the opposite side here, and I think that actually bodes well for the president, both in early voting numbers that have turned out, but also in states like Michigan, how close it is, where she's clearly lagging. behind Biden four years ago and places in the Arab community, for example, in Michigan, where I think President Trump has really made some serious inroads. Yeah, Julie, I got to ask you, how do you think abortion and the right to abortion access

plays in this race? Because I think if people think most of the country goes and votes the pocketbook, maybe Republicans win. But if women, suburban women turn out, even senior women, like we were seeing this Iowa poll, and abortion is top of mind, it's going to be a big night for Harris. Let me just say this, as the woman on this panel, it is an economic issue. I don't think people understand that for a lot of women, for most women, reproductive health, is a financial issue. It's not that somebody just wants to go out there and get an abortion. It's the question of being able to afford a family, to afford a family at a time when you want to have a family. And most importantly, if you are in the midst of really wanting to be a mother, as so many people do,

and God forbid something really bad happens to you and you can't carry that baby to term, There are doctors standing over you in places like Texas, which you know Julian, where people can't do anything to help you. They know how to help you. These doctors are trained to help you, but they can't help you because they're not allowed to, because they may go to prison. For women across the board, that is a nightmare scenario, especially for women who want to be mothers, especially for women and men who plan on having a family from a financial perspective,

but also from an emotional perspective. This is the most important thing that you can do for most people. And yet they're not allowed to do it in the way that they have thought consistently in our lifetime they've been able to. Carlos, you were a Republican, but you never hitched your wagon to the MAGA train. Do you think Republicans underestimated the issue of abortion? Do you think we're going to be surprised like we were in the midterms where there wasn't that red wave and because of the issue of abortion, it changed the dynamics of politics

in our country? Well, it's clear that they underestimated it because you've seen Donald Trump run away from the issue of abortion, right? This is an issue that Republicans used to hold up and constantly try to talk about and get voters to focus on, and now it's always changed the subject. So clearly the energy is there. But Tom, beyond that, I think Donald Trump had a clear advantage going into this race. And look, he may win it, but it's going to be very close, right? He had a clear advantage, and I think he squandered a lot of that advantage by making it all about himself and the same insults and the same vitriol that he has used in the past.

This is someone who survived an assassination attempt and couldn't garner all that goodwill to give them a big boost in the polls in this race. We only got about a minute left. Julian, is the Texas Senate race really up for grabs or is Cruz gonna win this? It would not shock me if Cruz loses. There's a lot of muscle memory for Republicans in Texas,

and Cruz is winning about three to four points in the polling averages right now, but he's not sealing the deal. He's at 47, 48 in these polls. And I think that Colin already, has done a very good job of positioning himself as an acceptable alternative for a lot of people that may vote for Trump, but are going to either skip it or vote against Cruz. 2016, Trump came within four points in Virginia. He got blown out four years later. Is there

any chance there? It was one of his last stops was in Virginia. There's definitely a chance. I mean, it will be tough. But if he wins Virginia, he's absolutely going to be the next president of the United States. Where do you see that happening? Is it in the swing districts in Virginia Beach? Do you think they peel away some support in the northern suburbs? How do you win Virginia for Republicans? Actually, northern suburbs? I mean, you have a We have about 25,300,000 Muslims in Virginia, which I think he's made significant inroads with Latinos as well in northern Virginia, and certainly if he has a very high turnout in southern Virginia, which I think he will.

Julie, Scott, Julian, Carlos, we thank you for this great conversation on the eve of a big election. When we come back, a sneak peek at how NBC will be bringing you the election results all night tomorrow as America picks the next president. Stay with us. Welcome back to Top Story as we continue the final election. election countdown. Where I'm standing right now might look a little bit different than what you're used to seeing here on Top Story. This is something our creative and operations team has worked

tirelessly on. A new and immersive election set integrated seamlessly right into our fourth floor newsroom here in New York. They've upgraded what was a small and closed studio space with new features and technology like this new data wall right here behind me. This will show you the latest vote tallies. Who's up, who's down, along with being a big way to monitor our team of reporters spread out across battleground states and the cities where we're going to be watching the close votes come in and of course much of the story will remain at the local level where throughout the night you'll be guiding you through the data and the storylines here on the big board I'm going to show you the big overarching paths to 270 for the candidates right this feature right here may look a little familiar to you when we hit 2024 you can see the states that are colored in here and those seven battleground states and as we get new data throughout the night we're going to be able to dig in county by county on a big battleground state, like, say, Pennsylvania will take you into those counties, places like Philadelphia, Montgomery County, Delco County, where the election could be decided. And of course, at the center of all of this, our own home field advantage, Rockefeller Center lit up red, white, and blue, and the

backdrop behind this beautiful anchor desk here. That's where nonstop coverage of both NBC News Now and the mothership will be led by Lester Holt, Savannah Guthrie. They'll bring you the latest calls from the NBC News Decision Desk, making sure we get it right throughout the night. We thank you so for watching Top Story. We are so excited about our election night coverage starting tomorrow. Hallie Jackson and I will come on when the first wave of exit polls come on at 5 p.m. And then we'll join Lester and Savannah, Kristen Welker, and Chuck Todd at 6.30 with all the results as they happen throughout the night. Stay right here, though. There's more news on the way.