Top Story with Tom Llamas - Thursday, September 5, 2024

Episode Date: September 6, 2024

Tonight's Top Story has the latest breaking news, political headlines, news from overseas and the best NBC News reporting from across the country and around the world.

Tonight breaking news, Hunter Biden pleads guilty in his tax case avoiding a trial on federal charges. The remarkable reversal inside of an L.A. courtroom, Hunter Biden's lawyers catching even prosecutors off guard saying Biden would change his plea. The surprise move saving his family from a potentially embarrassing trial. We speak with our legal experts about the jail time he could face, and will President Biden pardon him now that he's not running for office? Also breaking tonight the federal investigation into top NYPD officials, including the police commissioner. The phone seized in a sprawling operation. That stunning move coming after the FBI raided the homes of two top aides to the New York City mayor. What is happening to Eric Adams' inner circle?

Election Nostradamus speaks. American University professor Alan Lickman has correctly predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections going back the last four decades. He sits down with Top Story about what guides his decisions and who he thinks will win the 2024 race. New details in the investigation into the deadly school shooting in Georgia, the terrifying and chaotic moments inside that high school as students scrambled for safety. What we're learning about the 14-year-old suspect, including how the FBI interviewed him over threats just a year prior. We asked the sheriff if this could have been prevented and how the victims are being remembered tonight. Lightning sparks inferno a raging wildfire burning out of control right now in Oregon. The strong storms igniting that blaze, forcing people to evacuate.

Fantasy football fever, the NFL is officially back kicking off the first game of the season tonight. It's an all-out frenzy for fans drafting their own teams, hoping to win big, or at least dodge that grueling last-place punishment. We'll explain that. Our Sam Brock goes to where else but a sports bar to break down the explosion. of the fantasy league and safety regulators sounding the alarm on popular e-commerce sites like Timu and Sheehan. The concerns over products they say

could pose a fatal risk to babies. Top story starts right now. And good evening, it was a dramatic day in an LA courtroom. In a shocking move, Hunter Biden changing his plea to guilty in his federal tax trial. On the same day, jury selection was set to begin. That decision sparing his family from a potentially embarrassing trial, which was expected

to expose salacious details about his life. You can see the president's son leaving the courthouse with his wife. It comes just moments after he sat at a defense table, repeating the word guilty as the judge read off each charge. His nine charges include tax evasion, filing a false return, failure to pay, and failure to file. With the president's son now facing potential prison time, the question is, will President Biden stick to the pledge he made back in June after Hunter was found guilty in his separate gun trial? I'm not going to do anything I said. I abide by the jury decision. I will do that and I will not pardon him. But keep in mind, that was back in June before he dropped out of the 2024 race. But today, the White House press secretary doubling down on the president's comments, take a listen. I can say that it is still very much a note to the questions that I've gotten about,

The president's gun on part, but I don't have anything else to add. Can you comment on whether a commutation would be on or off the table? That's also no. All right, you heard it there. It's still a daunting road ahead for Mr. Biden. As we mentioned, he was convicted on all three felonies in his federal gun trial. His sentencing date for those crimes is just about 10 weeks away on November 13th. We have a lot to break down this evening.

NBC senior legal correspondent Laura Jarrett is in the house. She starts us off. President's son walking into a Los Angeles courthouse this morning, just as jury selection in his latest trial was set to begin. His lawyer soon informing the judge that plans had changed. And Hunter would admit his guilt to all nine counts, including tax evasion, filing a false return, and failing to pay his taxes on time. The judge asking if Biden understood his rights and the charges, Biden answering yes.

Hunter decided to enter his plea to protect those he loves from unnecessary hurt, and cruel humiliation. In a statement tonight, Hunter Biden saying, like millions of Americans, I failed to file and pay my taxes on time. For that, I am responsible. Today's guilty plea, which includes no deal with the government, reached after hours of legal wrangling, and a last-minute effort by Hunter Biden's lawyers to maintain his innocence while admitting the strength of the government's case through a so-called

Alford plea. The government balked at that proposal. Special counsel Leo Wise saying that it is not in the public interest. It's contrary to the rule of law, and we think it's an injustice. The plea now sparing the Biden family another public spectacle. As Hunter Biden's past drug abuse was on full display when he was convicted on gun charges in June. The current tax case carried a risk of not only additional prison time, but an airing of even more salacious details. as prosecutors were prepared to call a dozen witnesses, trying to prove he spent millions on an extravagant lifestyle, illegally writing off payments to women and luxury car purchases as business expenses. The president has said he would not pardon Hunter.

I said I abide by the jury decision. I will do that and I will not pardon him. When asked today if he had reconsidered, the White House press secretary said the answer was no. With that, Laura Jarrett joins us now live in studio. So, Laura, I think this was so surprising because Hunter and his lawyer, Abby Lowell, till the end, we're saying they were going to beat this case. And then something happened, as the Wall Street Journal points out. Let's put this up on the screen for our viewers.

This is from their report today. Federal prosecutors signaled an aggressive strategy, as the trial drew near, previewing an approach that would show how foreign interests paid the younger Biden to influence the U.S. government while his father was vice president during the Obama administration. Prosecutors said they plan to cast a light on lucrative arrangements with a Romanian real estate magnet who is facing a corruption investigation in his home country, along with his ties to the oil company, CEFC, China Energy, and his tenure on the board of Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company. So my question to you, how much of this was what Hunter's put out in a statement, or was it about this aggressive tactic?

They had to have been worried that they were going to get so sort of bloodied up on the stand with all of this other stuff that he's not charged with. foreign influence. He's charged with tax evasion and failing to pay his taxes on time. But they were going to bring in all of the other things he was spending his money on and who he was getting his money from. And all of that in front of this jury, I think they were worried it was going to be damning. They were worried it was going to be salacious and embarrassing. And they now get to avoid all of that. And they saw what happened in June, frankly, Tom. I think that played a lot into it as well. Speaking of that, and we talked about that at the top of the broadcast, you now have

these two cases intersecting. How does one influence the other when it comes to sentencing, How much prison time could he face? Yeah, so when we think about the first case, that gun-related charges, when he came into that case, he didn't have a criminal history. He now does. He's been convicted. And so that sentencing in the gun case is supposed to go for it just after the election on November 13th. And then he's now supposed to face sentencing in December in a totally different case, totally different jurisdiction, now in California, in December. And so when he's sentenced in December, what happened in that gun case will be taken into account.

and so it boosts the chances that he will get some prison time. Let me ask you a question that I'm not sure you can answer, but it'll make sense with the follow-up question. How much of a calculation do you think Abby Loyal, the defense attorney, and Hunter Biden made once Joe Biden stepped off the ticket? Did that, do you think, influence this decision in any ways or any way? And I know unless you're on the inside of the legal team, you can't answer that, but do you think that had a calculation to what they decided?

But if it was going to influence his decision, he would have thought that he would have then taken that plea deal that was sort of on the table over a year ago. Remember, we wouldn't be here today if they had managed to get that deal struck a long time ago. But he was so worried that he wasn't going to get full comfort that they weren't going to come after him for the foreign influence stuff. And the judge was questioning him saying, you realize you can still be charged for that other stuff. And so he didn't take the deal. But you would have thought if they were going to want to avoid just the embarrassment of all this stuff coming out, they would have gone forward with that.

But they didn't. And so they now were certainly left with like fewer choices. find our viewers, the Presidential Pardons Act, the president can pardon up until what point, the last minute he's president? Truly, up until that morning. He can do just about whatever he wants to do. He can't pardon him for future crimes. That would incentivize bad behavior. But he can pardon him or commute his sentence, making a reduced present sentence, for basically

anything he wants up until that morning. And then the new president, whoever gets elected could theoretically pardon him as soon as they're inaugurated? Oh, sure. Whoever is inaugurated, be it Harris or Trump, not going to happen, but could pardon him any time. So has Harris commented if she would part of him yet? Do we know? I do not believe we have seen that. We have not seen that.

I don't think she's been asked that. I don't think she's ever been asked that. Something else happened in a federal courthouse and involved former President Trump. Get our viewers up to speed on that, too. Yeah. So remember, this is the first time a federal judge is convening everybody since the Supreme Court said there may be some limited immunity for President Trump as it relates to things that he did in office. So Judge Chuck Ken has a hard task because she's now got to figure out what's immune, what's not immune, the conversations with Pence, the conversations with other advisors. where to draw those lines.

But she's now made clear the timetable for that is going to happen at such a point where this case cannot go to trial. I know I've been in front of you so many times saying this case cannot go to trial before the election. She's now put her stamp on it because the immunity issue itself will not be resolved in time. All right, Laura Jarrett,

with that stunning day in court in L.A. and also with the Trump update, we thank you for that. The other major headline we're following tonight here in New York, federal investigators seizing the phones of the NYPD commissioner just hours earlier in a separate investigation. The FBI conducted sweeping raids at the homes of top city officials close to New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

NBC's Jonathan Deans has the late-breaking details. Sources say the home of first deputy mayor, Sheena Wright, searched by the FBI and the city's Department of Investigation yesterday, a home she shares with David Banks, the city's school chancellor. Also facing scrutiny, Phil Banks, the deputy mayor for public safety, along with a third brother, Terrence Banks, who runs a consulting firm. firm. Also having his phone seized, mayoral advisor, Tim Pearson. City of all sources say this criminal investigation appears to be separate and in addition to the ongoing criminal investigation into Mayor Adams' fundraising and whether money was illegally funneled into his past campaign from overseas in Turkey. The counsel for the mayor issued a statement. Investigators have not indicated to us.

The mayor or his staff are targets of any investigation. As a former member of law enforcement, the mayor has repeatedly made clear that all members of the team need to follow the law. One FBI search was here at Chancellor Banks and Deputy Mayor Wright's Harlem Home, another along this block in Hollis, Queens at the home of Phil Banks. Phil Banks has faced scrutiny before when he served in the NYPD. Federal prosecutors called him an unindicted co-conspirator, but never charged him in a corruption case where two businessmen allegedly provided gifts, including vacations. In yet a separate criminal investigation,

SDNY prosecutor sees the phones of the police commissioner, Eddie Caban, and several of his top aides. A police spokesman said the NYPD is cooperating with the feds in this separate investigation, which appears to, in part, focus on quality of life enforcement of bars and clubs. Jonathan, Deans, joins us now and set. So, Jonathan, our viewers may remember, I sat down with the NYPD commissioner when he first became the commissioner there, telling us about his future. This obviously changes some of his plans. What more do we know about what's going on with him?

Well, we know the investigation, the law enforcement took his phones, and it's part of an investigation. But we also know there are numerous other officers in Midtown Manhattan who also had their phones taken. Again, we talked about this nightclub task force. They were perhaps looking into whether there was any impropriety or kickbacks going on with enforcement in midtown Manhattan. That's a gist of what we have. Again, this is a very tighthold investigation, but that's the best we know as of now. Jonathan Dean Sondell's breaking investigations. We appreciate it. All right, we turn out of power in politics as this election day is just 60 days away.

Former President Trump on the campaign trail in New York today talking to Republican donors about his economic proposals. While Vice President Kamala Harris arrived in Pittsburgh for a weekend filled with debate prep, for more on the race of the White House, I want to bring in a friend to top story, Alan Lickman. He's an author, historian, and a distinct. professor of history at American University. But his biggest claim to fame, correctly predicting presidential elections. He's been dubbed the nostridamus of elections

and has a nearly perfect track record. Since 1984, Lickman has correctly predicted the past 9 out of 10 U.S. presidential elections. And if you're wondering what he got wrong, well, it's complicated. That was because it was 2000 when he picked Al Gore, but we know that ended up at the Supreme Court and George W. Bush winning.

But he was one of the few to accurately predict Trump's victory in 2016. So how does he do it? He doesn't listen to polls or political pundits. He follows his own list of 13 true or false questions, which he developed in 1981. Get this, with a geophysicist friend, Vladimir Kylus, Barack. And it's based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes before then. Here are the 13 keys that he uses, everything from the economy and policy change to scandals and charisma. It might seem like a lot, but he joins us now to explain it all. And Alan, so you know our viewers here at Top Story, we love politics, and we're going to break this down. So first, let's get to the headline, right? Let me stop

talking. Who do you think is going to win the 2024 election? It's not what I think. It's what the system, the keys to the White House indicates. And according to the keys to the White House, we are going to have an unprecedented president. That is, the keys predict that Kamala Harris will become the first woman president of the United States. All right, Alan, so I want you to walk our viewers through, like they're your students in class. Walk us through the system. Let's start with the first point here, starting with the midterm gains. Yes. Now, the system is all based on the strength and performance of the White House party. And the way it works, if six of the 13 indicators, which, as you said, are very wide, go against,

the White House party, they're predicted losers, otherwise they're predicted winners. So six falses and the White House party loses. Fewer than six, they win. So the first key is the mandate key based on midterm U.S. House elections, and that one is false because the Democrats lost seats in 2022. Okay, next up is incumbency. What happens there? That's a big one. Of course, by Biden stepping down, they lose the incumbency key. Harris is the vice president, not the president. So that one is also false, two down. All right, primary contest. What happened here? This was the big thing that I was, you know, arguing that the Democrats were heading into disaster by not just having Biden stepped down and losing incumbency,

but having a big party brawl and losing the contest key, but somehow they grew a spine and a brain united behind Harris. That key is true. Third party challenger. We had RFK Jr. We no longer have them. What's the effect? Well, a third party almost always counts against the White House party. So the fizzle of RFK Jr. means key number four. Third party is true. Short-term economy, strong? We measure it by whether or not there is a recession in the election year, not by polls on public sentiment. And clearly, the economy has had a soft landing. No recession.

There's not going to be one in the next couple of months. That key is true. Clock is ticking, though, and there's some economic indicators that are coming in before election day. What about long-term economy? That's also very objective, statistically. It asks whether the real per capita growth in the current term is at least equal or greater than the average of the previous two terms, and growth under Biden, believe it or not, has been more than double that average, so that key is true. Has there been any major policy changes? This is number eight. There certainly have, you know, night and day between Trump and Biden, his chips bill, his infrastructure bill, his stimulus bill, his executive orders, his big inflation and climate change bill, his rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change, big differences, that key is true. But briefly, even though people may not agree with those changes, you're just saying these changes have happened. That's right.

simply says major change. It doesn't try to gauge where the public stands in them, which, of course, is very, very fickle. This next one, social unrest will remember going into 2020. You had the George Floyd protest. You also had pandemic protests. Talk to us about this one. Yeah, I think, you know, the Harris switch has had a positive effect because Biden is no longer front and center, and it seems to have dampened protests. We've seen nothing like the massive sustained social unrest like we had. in the 60s that threatens social stability this time, so that key is true. What about the protests at college campuses across the country over the war in Gaza? As I said, they're not massive, they're not sustained, and they haven't been anywhere near significant enough to threaten the stability of the country. Next up, White House scandal.

My favorite key, the scandal key, and Republicans are well aware of this key. They've been trying to pin a scandal on Biden for four years and come up. empty. Their spoken gun witness, Mr. Smirnoff was arrested by the FBI for lying and spreading Russian propaganda. And Hunter Biden's problems don't count. Even though he just pleaded guilty and was convicted in the other case? Makes no difference. If you read the definition of the keys, it says it has to implicate the president himself and there has to be at least some bipartisan recognition of scandal. Billy Carter, didn't. count against Jimmy and Hunter doesn't count against Joe.

It's got to be the president. Q11 incumbent charisma. Yeah. That one is false. That's a very high threshold key. You've got to be one of those once in a generation, broadly inspirational candidates. It's transformational, like Franklin Roosevelt or Reagan. Whatever you may think of, Harris, she doesn't fall into that category, so that key is false.

That's the third negative key. Challenge your charisma now. This is interesting. What happens here with Trump? Yeah, well, Trump's a great showman, but remember the definition of the key. You have to be broadly appealing, and Trump appeals to a narrow base. He's not broadly appealing like Reagan or FDR. His approval rating in four years as president averaged 41%. Historically, one of the lowest levels we've ever seen. He lost two elections by a combined 10 million popular vote. votes, Reagan and FDR, what elections by landslide. So what if you may think of him, he doesn't fit the criteria. I can't emphasize this too much. If you want to develop your own system based on something different, go right ahead. But if you're going to use the keys, you've got to stick to how the keys are defined.

All right. And then what about has the White House had a major foreign policy fail? These are the two most difficult keys, the foreign policy failure and the foreign policy success. We have two wars raging, and things are very, very fluid, very hard to predict. I've split the two foreign policy keys. I say Gaza is a tragedy. It's a catastrophe with no end in sight. We don't have boots on the ground, but we're very committed to what goes on there.

That's a failure. And I count what Biden did to stop Putin from quickly conquering Ukraine. It was Biden and Biden alone, who put together the coalition of the West that stopped Putin and has kept him at bay for two and a half years. If he had quickly conquered Ukraine, he would have gone on to threaten our native allies. I think that's going to go down as an historic accomplishment. But look, wars are fluid. The two keys could flip negative.

But that's still only five keys down. It would take six to predict that Donald Trump would regain the White House and Harris would lose. So, I got to tell you, it's pretty brave. You've been right so many times. You're coming out 60 days before the election. election. What convinces you that nothing in the next 60 days could change your calculation, or could something change it? You know, the notion of an October surprise is a myth. I've always predicted election results for 40 years, and no October surprise has ever changed what I have

predicted, because the keys to the White House are the big picture. But Alan, have you ever... Alan, not to interrupt you. I know you're the guru on this, I said, I don't mean to interrupt you, but have you ever seen an election like this? You had a former incumbent was indicted, convicted. You had a guy at the top of the ticket who just had a debate, terrible debate, the president had to leave the ticket. Have you ever seen anything like this? I just wonder about that, because this election has taken so many twists and turns. How do you feel so confident?

Great question. First of all, one of my favorite comedians is the late great Gilderranda, whose character Rosanne, Rosanna, and was famous for saying, there's always something. And every four years, someone says, this election is unique. You've got to change your keys. You know, we have an African-American running. Never had that before. America's not ready.

We have a woman running. We have social media. And I say, you can't change keys on the fly. That's a recipe for era. Plus, the keys are very robust. Developmentally, they go all the way back to the horse buggy days of politics in 1860. But finally, let me say, You know, my keys are based on history.

I'm not psychic Gene Dixon with a crystal ball. I'm not speaker Mike Johnson who thinks the Almighty talks to him. And yes, the patterns of history could be broken. But the problem is you never know in advance. You would only know afterwards. That's why I always stick to the keys. Could I be wrong? Of course, every four years.

Let me, you can't tell you for 40 years how nervous this makes me. All right, but it's got to be a little fun, too. Alan Lickman. We thank you for walking us through that, for teaching us your keys. We'll see if they're right. We'd love to talk to you after the election, or maybe an election. Can I say one more thing? Yeah, go for it, Alan. Yeah, yeah, go for it. You want to follow the keys and follow my thinking as we hit the election? Check out my live show. Every Tuesday and Thursday at 9 p.m. Eastern at Alan Lickman, YouTube.

People are watching NBC News now, so I don't know if they're going to have time. But if they have time, we'll let them watch that, Alan. I'm just joking. You can plug the show. I'm going to check it out as well. we thank you for being here. Tom, it was a great interview. I really enjoyed it. And with the presidential debate just days away, let's get to our next preview. Last night, we looked at Vice President Harris' debate history. Tonight we'll focus on former President Trump,

who's no stranger to stirring controversy on the debate stage. Our Dasha Burns breaks down this one. It's the debate showdown that could change the course of a neck-and-neck election. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump will meet face-to-face for the first time. Trump now sharpening his attacks. She's not a good debater. She's not a smart person. But that one was a beauty. Some of Trump's most memorable campaign moments have happened during debates. Businessman, Donald Trump. From first taking the stage in a crowded GOP primary field in the 2016 election, his explosive performances stole the spotlight, sometimes for better, sometimes for worse.

You've called women you don't like fat pigs, dogs, slabs, and disgusting animals. Your Twitter account is several... Only Rosie O'Donnell. Does that sound you like the temperament of a man we should elect his president? What I say is what I say. And honestly, Megan, if you don't like it, I'm sorry. I've been very nice to you, although I could probably maybe not be based on the way you have treated me. Becoming notorious for his brash takedowns of his opponents,

like one-time frontrunner, Jeb Bush. Oh, I know, you're a tough guy, Jeb. And we need to have a leader that is... Real tough. You're never going to be president. United States by insulting your way to the presidency. Let's see, I'm at 42 and you're at three, so far I'm doing better. Doesn't matter.

Then there were his three presidential debates with Hillary Clinton. From everything I see has no respect for this person. Well, that's because he'd rather have a puppet as president of the United States. No puppet. And it's pretty clear. You're the puppet. But here's what I don't want people in another face off, famously stalking her around the debate stage. We just turn it back to the insurance companies and inviting women who had accused her

husband of sexual misconduct. In 2020, running as an incumbent, Trump interrupting Joe Biden constantly in their first debate by one count 145 times. I beat Bernie Sanders. Not by much. I beat him a whole hell of a lot. I'm here standing facing you all right. There's nothing happening there. Donald, would you just require for me? I'm not going to answer the question. Why would you answer that question? Because the question is, the question is, the question. Would you shut up, man. And stirring controversy when he said this about the far right extremist group, the proud boys. Give me a white supremacist and right. Proud boys. Stand back and stand by. This election cycle, Trump notably skipped the primary

debates, but the first presidential debate likely going down as one of the most consequential in history. With the COVID, excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with, if we finally beat Medicare. After the disastrous performance, President Biden dropped out of the race. This exchange serving as a pivotal moment. And I'm going to continue to move until we get the total ban on the total initiative relative to what we're going to do with more border patrol and more asylum officers. President Trump?

I really don't know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don't think he knows what he said either. With just days to go, Trump repeating his familiar mantra, saying he does. doesn't do traditional debate prep. President Trump, how are you specifically preparing for the debate versus Harris? I'm not. I'm not spending a lot of time on it. I think my whole life I've been preparing for a debate. All right, and with that, Dasha Burns joins us now in studio. Dasha, good to see you off the campaign trail, which is a rarity. I do want to ask you, so the former president says he's not really preparing, his life has prepared him.

But we do know that Tulsi Gabbard, who used to be a Democrat, is now helping the former president? Yeah, that's exactly right. And if you'll remember, Gabbard has just, shared the debate stage with Vice President Kamala Harris before back in the 2020 presidential primary, the Democratic primary. So she's going to be giving some of that insight, what it's like to be on stage. It's his second debate of this presidential cycle, but of course his first against his new opponent. So the debate rules have been published. They are out now. There's no real difference from the debate with CNN. Does this benefit the former president anyway?

Well, this is what the former president's team was pushing, that they keep the same rules as CNN, particularly the issue of the muted mics. We've talked about this before, that Trump team wanted to keep those same rules, keep the mics muted when they're not speaking, when the candidates not speaking. That's something that the Harris team kind of pushed against. They thought it might be more detrimental for former President Trump to have the mics open, maybe more of those bombastic moments that we've shown in this piece here. But the rules will be the same. Mikes will be muted. And no audience, which could be potentially a detriment to the former president because he does tend to play off the crowd. Dasha Burns for us, Dasha, we appreciate that.

For more of what's at stake at the first presidential debate between former President Trump and Vice President Harris. Let's bring in our panel tonight. Carl Scribello, he's a former Republican congressman from Florida, and Ashley Etienne, she's a former communications director for Vice President Harris. We thank you both for being here. Carl, I'm going to start up with you. If you were advising former President Trump, and I know you guys aren't friends, but if you were advising him, what would you tell him he has to do in this debate against Vice President Harris? Well, Tom, I don't think this is much different than the prep for the first debate against President Biden. In that debate, the pressure was on Joe Biden because there were so many questions about his age and his fitness.

I think in this debate, the pressure is really on Vice President Harris. I mean, the country knows Donald Trump. They know what they can expect from him. I don't think he's going to surprise anyone. The country is still getting to know Kamala Harris. She still hasn't closed a deal with some of those swing voters who are going to decide this election. So if I'm Donald Trump, I try to stay out of the way. I try to avoid a lot of those insults and the things he typically likes to do.

And I attack Harris on her record and really try to paint her out for being a West Coast liberal, which a lot of her history, at least, certainly backs that up. That's what Republicans need Donald Trump to do. The question is whether he can do that. We saw him in the Biden debate, that first debate, where he was restrained in the first half. If that Donald Trump comes out, he can do himself. some favors. Ashley, this is going to be the first time that Americans really hone in on Vice President Harris, right? Since she debated Mike Pence several years ago, okay? Former President

Trump, he's had some good debates, but he's also been beaten by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by former President Biden in the 2020 debate. What would you tell Vice President Harris, and what do you think she has to do? You know, and I'll also add that he came out of this last debate with President Biden. Biden had the worst day of his entire political career. And Donald Trump, still didn't have any gains coming out of that debate. So he's not a good debater. I mean, he doesn't gain anything. And part of the reason why is because people are exhausted and over this Trump show.

But here's some things that I think that the vice president needs to achieve. I think she's got to stand her ground and not take Donald Trump's bait. I think she's got to lay out her vision and look very presidential. That's still very important for women leaders. You know, I used to be Speaker Pelosi's communications director. So I know very well that women still have to sort of show and demonstrate to the world what they can do and that they're prepared for those for the big job. And then the third thing I would say, she's going to have to do what, you know, frankly, I think reporters aren't doing today and the Democratic Party isn't really doing in a very robust way. And that is hold Donald Trump accountable to his own record. I mean, he oversaw the worst economy in modern history.

You know, that wall that he said he built is actually not standing. It's on the ground. Mexico never paid for it. I mean, so he's got some incredible failures of COVID. The response to COVID was a disaster. So I think she's got to also hold him accountable to his record. Ashley, do you think the campaign is doing her a disservice by not getting her out there more unscripted moments? Yes, she did that one sit down, but that's it.

She's not doing town halls. She's not doing news conferences. Could that hurt her going into this debate where she can't bring notes? There's no teleprompter. She's going to be on her own. Well, I mean, I can only tell you, A, I don't think it hurts her. I think this is sort of a beltway conversation. I don't think people, the average person, cares as much as we think they do.

And that's demonstrated by the fact that she's raised over $550 million in weeks, 200 plus thousand people have signed up to volunteer on our campaign. So people aren't persuaded by this. argument that she needs to do more media. But I will say, I will say this. I think what they're doing is making sure that the vice president is in very controlled environments. What I know about her is that she's at her best when there's a fire lit underneath her. And I think she understands, and based on what I'm hearing from the team that's working with her now, she understands this moment. And I don't mean, you know, the debate, but understands this moment in American history, the, you know,

the threats that are presented before the nation. She understands uniquely the challenges that we're facing and the threat that Donald Trump poses and is incredibly focused. And I think she's going to show up on debate night. But here's the other thing I would also add that works to her advantage. There's not a lot of tape on her.

We know exactly what Donald Trump's going to do. He's consistent. He's a one-trick pony. He doesn't even, you know, to use a sports analogy, he doesn't have a whole lot of tape to focus, I mean, to study Kamala Harris's movements, how she debates. So I think that's going to be also working to her advantage. Carlos, what kind of stumbles could Vice President Harris fall into? I moderated a debate

that you took part in when you were running for office, an election that you won. You came in that debate prepared. I was hitting both candidates with very tough questions. Are there any sort of stumbles she could have here that could be detrimental to her campaign in the next 60 days? Well, look, if Donald Trump does his job, and of course, if the moderators do their job, she's going to have to answer for her record, the entirety of her record. We know that she's putting forward a pretty centrist, popular set of proposals now as a presidential candidate.

That's really not her history. In many ways, and this sounds counterintuitive, Tom. Donald Trump has to make this debate about the past. Kamala Harris is the turn-the-page candidate. She's the next-generation candidate. She wants people not to focus on her record in the Senate or in her past proposals when she's run for office. She wants them to focus on today and the future. And Donald Trump has to really hit rewind and say, well, we got to talk about your economic record. We got to talk about

all the Biden administration's heavy spending as soon as you came in, which may have provoked inflation. We have to talk about your record on the southwest border. So Donald Trump really has to get voters to look toward the past, which is counterintuitive because we talk about how elections are about the future. But that really has to be his strategy. And if he gets her to focus on those and makes her answer questions about those positions and why she has changed some of them, that could really hurt her credibility with the American people. She has to figure out how to manage those situations.

Carlos, briefly, how important do you think this debate is? This debate, given that it's the only one that's scheduled, could make all the difference. This debate could be decisive, Tom. This might be the last time that the entirety of the American people, or at least a critical mass of them, our focus on this race. We know most people have made up their mind. So I think these two candidates have to bet the House on this debate. Carlis Crubello, Ashley Etienne, we thank you so much for joining Top Story. This was a great conversation. I think our viewers learned a lot. Still ahead tonight, the search for answers after a deadly school shooting in Georgia. The startling new details

about the 14-year-old suspect facing murder charges after he gunned down teachers and classmates. And the breaking news just coming in that suspect's father just arrested. And the bizarre crash on a Virginia highway, how this tractor trailer, look at that, ended up wedged into that highway sign, we'll explain. Plus, new concerns over items sold on e-commerce sites, Timu and Cheyenne. The push for investigations into products that could harm children will explain. Stay with us.

We're back now with some breaking news that deals with the investigation into that deadly school shooting in Georgia. This just in, police have arrested the first in. Police have arrested the father of the 14-year-old suspect, that father now facing charges of second-degree murder and involuntary manslaughter. This, as investigators, search for a possible motive. Priya Shrether has the details. Tonight, terrifying moments inside the deadly school shooting in Winder, Georgia coming into clearer focus, killing four and injuring nine at Appalachie High School. The suspect, 14-year-old Colt Gray, now in custody and charged. with four counts of felony murder. Investigators searching his home. Authorities say they're

looking into a potential motive and how he obtained an AR-styled rifle. It was carnage. It was blood everywhere. You could smell the, you could smell the gunpowder. Barrow County Sheriff, Judd Smith, says it was the suspect's second day at Appalachie High. The FBI and Jackson County Sheriff's Office say Gray and his father were interviewed last year after receiving several anonymous tips in May 2023 about potential threats posted to an online gaming platform, according to a senior law enforcement official, containing photographs of guns. His father stated he had hunting guns in the house but said his son did not have unsupervised access to them. With no probable cause to arrest Gray, authorities say they told local schools to monitor him.

Do you think this could have been prevented given the fact that there were already warnings about him? Possibly. Speculation. Again, I believe and I feel confident that the FBI, the system worked. The sheriff says an alert system called Centegics worked. At about 10.20 a.m. yesterday, authorities say teachers began activating a button on their badge that placed the school on lockdown. Within minutes, officials say law enforcement arrived on scene. Sheriff Smith credits three school resource officers. officers with getting the suspect to surrender within six minutes of the first alert from teachers. Gave him verbal commands and he dropped the gun, went on the ground and they took him into custody immediately. Among the victims, 14-year-old classmates Christian Angulo and Mason Shermerhorn. And two math teachers, 39-year-old Richard Aspenwall and 53-year-old Christina Irameen. Adriana Phillip is a senior

at Appalachie High. She says she was in class when she heard the gunshots. ran to the back of the classroom and we all huddled behind the lap tables and from where I was, I could see the door. So I watched it, but then after a little bit, I just closed my eyes and I was, I was hugging the girl next to me. According to two senior law enforcement officials that were briefed on the investigation, the suspect had shown an interest in previous mass shootings, including the Parkland mass shooting back in 2018. Officials say the suspect's first appearance in court will be tomorrow morning. Tom? All right, Priya, we thank you for that. Coming up, the Oregon wildfire exploding in size. Look at this. Residents forced to flee as the flames closed in. What we know

about the lightning strikes that apparently sparked this inferno. Stay with us. Back now with Top Stories News Feed, we begin with the deadly shootout outside the Israeli consulate in Munich, Germany. In a statement late today, police say, an 18-year-old Austrian citizen was attempting to carry out a terror attack at the consulate when he was approached by officers. The suspect killed in that shootout. The incident coming on the

anniversary, you'll remember of the 1972 Munich Olympics terror attack where 11 Israeli athletes were killed by a Palestinian militant group. Back here at home to the raging wildfire in central Oregon, this video shows the blaze that has so far consumed more than 60,000

acres. This is happening in Daville. This is about 240 miles. southeast of Portland. Officials say the fire was sparked by lightning and is zero percent contained. The evacuation orders are underway and an area surrounding a national forest has been closed. So far, no word on any injuries. Okay, a frightening scene on a highway in central Virginia. You've got to look at this video. It's crazy. It shows the raised bed of a tractor trailer lodged into an overhead sign. The weight of the truck eventually pulling the sign completely down onto the roadway. This is so crazy. Police say the bed of the truck, unexpectedly

detached, hitting the sign somehow. The driver coming to a stop later once he realized the calf had separated. No one was heard in this. That's the good news, but the driver is facing charges. Okay, federal regulators are urging investigation into popular e-commerce sites you may be using Sheehan and Timu. Two members of the CPSC are urging the agency to look into claims the companies are selling baby and toddler products that are currently banned in the U.S. because they could be harmful or even deadly to young children. She and spokesperson emphasize that customer safety is their top priority while Timu pledged full cooperation with any investigation.

Okay, when we come back, how the nation's opioid crisis is playing a role in this year's election. One mother who lost her son to fentanyl explains why she feels there's only one candidate in this race who is championing her fight and how the epidemic is swaying the way people cast their vote. We'll explain. Back now with a look at the opioid crisis and how it's affecting the way some Americans are deciding to vote. Fentanyl, get this, is killing more people than car crashes and shootings combined in the U.S. each year.

And now families at lost loved ones are demanding answers from the presidential candidates. And some say only one of them so far has consistently talked about the crisis. Justice Corresponding, Kendolynian, explains. Dawn Allen's son Benjamin grew up watching her campaign for Democrats. My enthusiasm about Joe Biden was probably greater than any other president that's ever run before. Then two years into the Biden administration, Don's son went to bed and never woke up. We were able to establish that he got a counterfeit pill that was pressed with elicit fentanyl. And Benjamin was one of four young people in Lake County.

where we live who died of illicit fence. As she mourned, she became frustrated by what she feels is inaction by the Biden administration on the opioid crisis, and she grew increasingly attracted to Donald Trump's tough talk. And it's now time for America to wage war on the cartels. Who's kids? Our kids! Don is part of a growing number of opioid-affected families who have embraced Trump. It feels like a really bad breakup.

Some even rallying with former Trump officials. Please welcome American mom and funder. Republicans highlighted the crisis in prime time at their convention, featuring a mom whose son died from fentanyl poisoning. This fight is for your children. By contrast, no prime time speaker at the Democratic National Convention mentioned the opioid crisis, even after activists tried to draw attention by hanging billboards around Chicago. Trump talks about fentanyl often. Fentanyl's like laced into everything now.

It's horrible. It's horrible, yeah. I think that the Biden administration has let this get so wildly out of control that maybe the only way to kind of get it back underway is to have somebody who's willing to come in and be kind of the bad guy. A White House spokesperson disputed that Biden allowed the fentanyl problem to fester. But under Biden, deaths from fentanyl rose by 30 percent to more than 70,000. Experts say a slight decrease in deaths last year is probably due to the increased use of Narcan that reverses overdoses, something Biden made widely. available. The Biden administration captured two leaders of the Mexican cartel that exports the most fentanyl, but no one believes that will stop the flow. Biden also significantly increased access

to treatment. Trump says he will close the border and use the military to target Mexican cartel leaders. But that would be an act of war against an ally. The opioid crisis is the most lethal drug epidemic ever in human history. Vonda Feldab Brown has studied illegal drugs for decades. She says neither party has a magic bullet. So this is a devilishly difficult problem. It is a devilishly difficult problem. Getting to a situation where there is no fentanyl coming to the United States, it's just not realistic.

The White House says they've met with hundreds of families and have made the issue a top priority. The Harris campaign told us if she wins, she would revive the border security bill and seek even more money for treatment. Some experts call Trump's emphasis misguided. He focuses on shutting down illegal border crossings, but most fentanyl is smuggled in by Americans through legal ports of entry. But they also say the Biden-Harris administration has not been nearly tough enough in the face of Mexican government inaction and corruption.

Hey, hey, ho, ho! That's all that's got to go! Dawn and other fentanyl families want the issue on the front burner. We don't feel seen. We don't feel heard. Ken Delanian, NBC News, Washington. We thank Ken for that important story looking at a topic that is affecting so many families across the U.S.

All right, stay with us. We're going to be right back. Finally tonight, from depth charts to off the charts, fantasy football is driving growth and excitement to the NFL and is estimated to be a multi-billion dollar business this year. The season kicks off tonight, and many are getting their last picks in. Our Sam Brock has this inside look at the game within the game. The NFL season kickoff might be the headline.

Here we go, boys. 2024 season, kick it off. But the ever-exploding fantasy football fan base has served as a backbone for the sport. This group of friends. You got land. Off the board. Electricians by day and fantasy managers by trade, drafting their team just hours before the Chiefs Ravens game at Stout New York City.

All right, Millo Light, you're up. They love football, but relish the camaraderie. What is the best part about doing this? Just getting the guys together. You don't see these guys all the time. sure. There's definitely people in this league for me personally that, you know, I may lose touch with for six to seven months, but as soon as this league pops up, it's like, you know, nothing's changed. Like we haven't missed a day. And the numbers of those infatuated with fantasy just

continue to grow. A 2022 estimate put the pool of fantasy football players nationwide at 37 million, while the financial footprint of fantasy sports in general, a staggering $13 billion and rising. The trend that bar and restaurant owners are certainly keeping tabs on. It just like blew up to the point where we're like, we need to capitalize on this, let's put packages together, let's make it easier for these groups that want to get together and draft. Also blowing up the antics. Not just here, but online.

Like teams determining their draft order based on the manager's 40-yard dash times, treating league champs. Like royalty with red carpets, limos, and actual trophies. As for the losers, it can be rough, facing tests both physical and mental. When the fantasy football punishment is taking the FAT. But at the end of the season, take a hint from the pros. Starwide receiver Tyreek Hill with the Dolphins has a message amid concerns about his thumb. All my fantasy, draftees, draft people, I'm fine, a okay, 100%.

So I just wanted to troll y'all a little bit. A good reminder, when it comes to fantasy, strategies vary. He's a Taylor Swift fan, obviously. But the Smack Talk lasts a lifetime. Sam Brock joins us in studio. Sam, so great to have you here as part of your residency in New York City. So you said it was a multi-billion dollar business. There's got to be a trickle-down effect.

You were at the bar, probably hammering down some white claws. I don't know. But wiseers, there you go. but it's got to impact other businesses. It's, so $13 billion for fantasy sports. The amazing thing about that is it's like Fanduel and Draft Kings and all the daily fantasy stuff, the formal way they make their money.

That's how they calculate the figure. But think about all the people that have their own groups of friends that they put in a couple hundred bucks and they disseminate that, but also they're going to bars and restaurants and spending money to watch Thursday night football, Monday net football, not because their team is playing, because their fantasy players are playing.

So it's pulling people into establishments, NFL Sunday, ticket, red zone, all these people that are signing up services they might not otherwise, Tom, is raking in orders of magnitude more billions than just that figure. It's incredible how live sports has just grown so much, and it's because of these sort of outside venues, along with betting as well. I do want to ask, and I'm being told that you dabble in fantasy football yourself. How many teams do you have, and are you doing anything different this year? And if you lose, do you have to do anything embarrassing? I hope not. It's an

obsession. I have four different teams. Four teams. The agreement that I came to with my wife is, if I win, she gets a percentage of the winnings, which was actually working really well. period of time, but I've been on a losing streak for a couple of years now, so I'm not sure how much longer that's going to go. In terms of strategy, I like running backs that catch a lot of passes because typically most leagues give you one point per reception. So if you get all their yards and touchdowns and the catches, it's like double dipping. I'm all about that. Sam Brock, dude, hardcore fantasy football player. I like that. Sam, great to have you here in a programming note before we go. You can catch the first two games of the NFL season on the mothership NBC

tonight and only on Peacock tomorrow. We love that. We thank you for watching Top Story. I'm in New York. Stay right there. More news on the way.