Trading Secrets - 268. Ryan Serhant: Owning Manhattan star and CEO & co-founder of Serhant returns! BTS of the current state of real estate, creating a new genre of reality TV, and his decision to live his life completely public Episode Description:

Episode Date: December 15, 2025

This week, Jason is joined by returning guest and one of the most influential leaders in real estate, Ryan Serhant! He is the co-founder and CEO of Serhant, now home to more than 1,500 agents with growth that has doubled year over year. He’s built one of the most followed and powerful real estate brands in the world with over 9 million followers across all social media. Most importantly, he is back on Netflix with season two of Owning Manhattan, showing a more competitive, more ambitious and more strategic side as he expands his empire beyond Manhattan in battles in the most cutthroat luxury real estate market in the world. Ryan breaks down the current state of the real estate market and why the way people think about homeownership needs to evolve. He explains which markets remain stronger than ever, how banks are underwriting loans right now, and why it feels like everyone works for the government. Ryan shares his perspective on a potential rent freeze in New York, whether he’d ever consider going into politics, and the surprising parallel between divorce rates and the Fed lowering interest rates. He also unpacks the two largest referral sources in the U.S., why fear is often the only driver of lower prices, and how he approaches building trust in volatile markets. On the creative side, Ryan dives into creating a TV show no one has seen before, valuing the viewer’s time, launching a new genre of reality TV with season two of Owning Manhattan, the movie that inspired part of the show’s opening, and how Netflix checks compare to Bravo. He closes by sharing how he handles public attacks on his character, the four P’s, and why choosing to be an open book has been central to his success. Ryan reveals all this and so much more in another episode you can’t afford to miss! Host: Jason Tartick Co-Host: David Arduin Audio: John Gurney Guest: Ryan Serhant  Stay connected with the Trading Secrets Podcast!  Instagram: @tradingsecretspodcast  Youtube: Trading Secrets Facebook: Join the Group  All Access: Free 30-Day Trial  Trading Secrets Steals & Deals! Quince: From Mongolian cashmere sweaters to Italian wool coats, Quince pieces are crafted from premium materials and built to hold up without the luxury markup. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to Quince.com/tradingsecrets for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too. Northwest Registered Agent: Northwest Registered Agent has been helping entrepreneurs launch and grow businesses for nearly 30 years. Build your business identity fast; and for just $39 plus state fees. Get an LLC, domain name, business email, local phone number, business address, registered agent, and compliance in just 10 clicks and 10 minutes. Visit www.northwestregisteredagent.com/paidtradingsecrets  and start building something amazing! Momentous: Creatine isn't just for building muscle-it has become a daily essential for your strength, focus, recovery, aging, and cognitive performance, and now Momentous is making your daily Creatine routine even easier with NEW Creatine Chews - these bite-sized lemon lime chews make consistency effortless: you just chew and go. Go to livemomentous.com and use promo code TRADINGSECRETS for up to 35% off your first order. Yubico: Yubico’s mission is simple: make the internet safer for everyone. Their breakthrough product, the YubiKey, is a small but powerful hardware key that protects your online accounts from phishing and hacks with just one tap. Trusted by millions, YubiKeys work across hundreds of services, from email and social media to banking, without the hassle of codes or passwords. Go to www.yubico.com/start to learn how to activate and set up your key.

Welcome back to another episode of Trading Secrets. I'm your host, Jason Tardick, and I got the one, the only, the curious Canadian here with me on this intro. We are back for an episode you truly cannot afford to miss. It is with Ryan Sirhan from Owning Manhattan Season 2. It's out now on Netflix. But in this episode, we get into everything, the behind the scenes of filming, production. How much do they get paid? Does he make more on Netflix or when he was back on Bravo and all the things, real estate?

So I would tell you, for the first 20 minutes, we are in the weeds on real estate. What is happening in the market? Is it a buyer's market? Sellers market? What should renters do? What's going on with policy? What do you think about the policy? Recently, President Trump put out a potential plan for a 50-year mortgage.

Mr. Sourhan, what do you think of that? that, all the moving parts. This one is a master class. Professor Surhan is here to advise us and give us all the different information. It is like no other. One thing you got to know going into this week, there was just an article came out that is talking about the median and average net worths. I've talked about it on my podcast. I've talked about it in the books that I have written. You cannot improve your net worth. You cannot improve your numbers unless you know your numbers. So take some time, understand what your net worth is. David, you are here right now.

What do you think the average net worth for the ages 35 to 44 in the United States is the average net worth of those 35 to 44? 35 to 44, which means you're probably in the median first time home buyer. You probably got some assets with the maybe got some investments. I'm going to say this could be low end could be high. I'm going to say $722,000. The average net worth for the age of the head of household, $35 to $44, $549,600. Now, remember with averages, the reason sometimes you won't look at averages is because if you have really big numbers, right? Like in that 35 to 44 range, you have billionaires.

It's going to bring that average up. So then what they'll do is they'll look at the median net worth. So instead of averaging those high numbers in those numbers, if you remember sixth grade math, you just cross. awesome out. You cross the outlayers off. The median net worth, which is a better reflection of accuracy in the United States, 35 to 44, $135,600. From 45 to 54,247,200. From 55 to 64, 365 to 74,500, from 65 to 74, the median net worth the United States, $409,900. And the median net worth for those 75 plus is $335,600. It makes sense, right?

Like, as you age and you're retired, you're taking from the money that you've built and created, you're not usually earning more and more. So that puts some stuff in perspective. And that's a great topic as we go into the Surhan podcast because we're going to talk about his biggest deal that was filmed on TV, $60 million from one of his brokers and how much he got paid. So it's good to, you know, touch grass a little bit before we get into these big numbers. But David, how about you tease the recap for our audience here before we

ringing the bell with the one and only Ryan Serran. Recap was phenomenal. We get into a nice overdue 10-minute little recap of our personal lives, which was really nice to do. I'm off what we were calling my two-week paternity leave with a newborn in the household. And then as far as Ryan Serhan goes, we've talked real estate with him before. We've talked real estate with other people before.

No one quite talks about it quite like he does. He puts a spin on it and energy on it. and you always take something away and I took a bunch away from this episode. I know you will too. I'm excited for you guys. I think we just kick it to the episode. I love it.

We'll kick it to the episode before we do. We got to give something away to those who gave us a five-star review. So I have a gift card to give away. Jordan, if you hear this, shoot me an email, Trading Secrets at jason tardick.com. You gave us five stars. Jordan said, I love everything about this podcast. There is something to learn and so many takeaways.

I love the variety of guests. combines my love of reality TV, celebrity influencer, and business worlds, and so much more. David's input is the voice the viewer always makes it relatable and allows us to digest the information from the average Joe perspective. Personally, I'd love to see Jason interview some of my favorite influencers who have turned entrepreneurs with successful businesses such as Krista Horton, Jennifer Reed, Darrell Ann Denner, Madison Nelson. Keep up the great work.

Jordan, thank you for that review. Send me your email at trading secrets at jason dart.com. I have a gift card for you. and we are giving gift cards away every week. So please go give us reviews. And then we will give another gift card away next intro. But enough of the giveaways. Let's ring in the bell with the one, the only.

The King of New York City real estate, $10 billion plus in listings, Ryan Sirhan. Welcome back to another episode of Trading Secrets. Today we are joined by a returning guest and one of the most influential leaders in real estate, Ryan Sirhan. He is the co-founder and CEO of Surhan, now home to more than 1,500 agents with growth that have doubled year over year. He's built one of the most fouled and powerful real estate brands in the world with over 9 million followers across all social media. And most importantly, he is back on Netflix with Season 2 of owning Manhattan, showing a more competitive, more ambitious, and more strategic side as he expands his empire beyond Manhattan in battles in the most cutthroat. luxury real estate market in the world.

Ryan, welcome back to trading secrets. Oh, God, now I'm stressed out. You know, it's funny. Live up to that intro. I'll tell you what, you've come on a few times now. Every time you give me a great comment after the intro. Last time, it was like, dude, next time, shorten it up. That was too much.

This time, you've got to live up to it. Let's start with this. So I, of course, want to talk about owning Manhattan. Before I do, though, let's talk about, let's just get like a state of the union of real estate with Ryan Surhan. So, you know, 15% of homes were de-lists in September. they said that they were delisted because they risk at selling at a loss.

70% of homes listed in September were on the market for more than 60 days. And now we talked last time you're on the podcast about supply issues, but the supply for sale is about 15% higher now than it was a year ago. I just have one ridiculous real estate story in Nashville.

Looking at this home, it's been on the market for 108 days, $2.95 million. Nothing's not moving. I look yesterday. They delisted it and then relisted it at 3.15. So I hit my agent up.

Hey, what was the reasoning? What did they do? They put a pool or something. No, they didn't do anything. They just saw more bites at 3.15. I feel like it's mayhem. What do buyers? What do sellers do?

What's your take on the whole market right now? I think the market is doing exactly what it was designed to do, which, unfortunately, is reward scarcity and disincentivize mobility. So you have to think about it like a game. Okay. If you're already playing the game, you understand the rules. already in it, you have skin in it, and you're just gonna move with whatever way you can.

If you're already an owner, you're selling, you're buying, you're whatever, for everyone who's not even in the game yet, which is most Americans now who can't afford to buy a home. You're not even on the field, you're not even in the minor leagues and it's hard. So it's not a buyer's market, it's not a seller's market, it's nobody's market.

You have pockets of, I would say, good volatility, right? So like Nashville's a good market where a lot of people like to buy, sell, move, right? There's a lot of things to do there, but you have to kind of hit the 360 degree box is to have a market like that. So you have to have good jobs, good schools, good health care, good security, right?

And an airport. If you don't have any of those, you roll the dice on whether you're in a healthy market or not. To your point, I think 45% of all new homes that hit the market this year have come off the market already year-to-date. And it's almost the end of the year. And it's not because the market's bad,

it's because sellers are pricing at last year or the year before's comp data. and they're not getting their number because interest rates haven't come down meaningfully. The cost to carry a home is incredibly expensive. And so there's just less buyers who are motivated and excited to go and spend $15,000 a month

on carry plus tax plus their mortgage on a home they might have to move out of in three years. So sellers are then saying, well, I can't afford to move either because rates are high and I don't know, you know, what I'm going to do? So if I don't get this number, it's not that they don't want to sell.

I just can't sell. and because boomers and Gen X can't afford to sell their five bedroom they raise their kids in in the 90s. They're sitting in those homes with unused bedrooms and they're not moving either because the cost for senior care

is the highest it's also ever been and no one saved enough to be able to live their later years of life with supervision. So like all of these things are all happening at the same point and it all started in 1997 with IRS Code 121

where they created for the first time, the tax exemption, $500,000 filing jointly or $250,000 if you're filing as a single, right, on your capital gains. And the median price of a home in the United States in 1997 was $124,000. Wow. But the tax exemption has never changed. And it's been nearly 30 years. So income has changed. Stock market has changed. Wealth creation has changed. Jobs have changed, right? The world has changed. But the tax exemption has not changed. So now you're going to people and you're saying, hey, you know, tax-free for the first $500,000, it doesn't do anything anymore. It's meaningless. I couldn't find you a $500,000 home

in Manhattan if I wanted to. And if I did, I'd find it for you, you're not going to like it. Yeah. Right? Yeah. And so, but here's what I'll say. It is as designed. And so there are still good deals. They're just not in yesterday's normal. People have to pivot how they think about home ownership. We're doing co-ownership for the first time in my entire career. So instead of renting with a roommate, you're buying with a roommate. You're setting up an LLC or a tenants in common structure where two people are going in and you can buy them out of the LLC or you can rent out their portion. Why rent if I can make an investment? You're seeing that happen a lot. I haven't even heard about that. Yep, 100%. In Florida, et cetera, like three roommates coming together. They have

portions of down payments, but let's go do this together. So you're seeing that. You're seeing parents buying for kids, which also is really throwing off that median age of first-time buyers. There was another stat that came out that said the median age of a first-time buyer today is now 40 years old. Yeah. But there's context to that because the person living in that home is not necessarily 40. The buyer and the person who's signing the deed and funding it is 70. Got it. Because it's dead. It's putting that number up. Correct. Yeah. So that brings up the number. Okay. So it's a little occupancy for first-time home tenants is still about the same. If not, like, younger today than it has been.

But life is expensive, everything's expensive. I think the next crisis we're gonna see is on just homeowner strain, right? Household, strain. One is enough, enough. Yeah. And to fix that, you need, you know, you need policy. I want to talk about policy, but before we do, it feels like from the broker's side,

you're seeing a lot of delistening. because there's also brokerages that aren't willing to, like, reduce their price point. It's like, you're looking left, you're looking right. You don't want the market to crack. So everyone's like, we'll just de-list it because we're not going to move our price point. Owning a brokerage and having, you know, so many different units out there in condos and houses. Are you advising clients to delist as opposed to reduce price point? It's not the broker is incentivized by transactions. Sure.

And they're not paid salaries. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So whether something sells, for better for worse, whether it sells for a million or two million, you're moving transactions. It's the seller who's saying, well, if you can't get me my price, then I'm taking it off the market. So it's the seller who's sitting there.

And sometimes it's ego. Sometimes it's ego plus a little bit of vanity. But a lot of times they just can't afford to sell at a lower number. Maybe their cost basis is too high. They did a huge renovation that the current buyer isn't willing to pay them for. Their mortgage rate is just too low. You know, you still have 90% of all home loans in the United States under 5%. That's crazy.

Your 30-year today is sitting at just over 6%. Right. Like, you could try to get a 10-1 arm, so interest only, at around 5%. So, but incomes aren't growing at the same rate as housing appreciation. So, like, it's this kind of messy middle. The super luxury market is stronger than ever. And the first time buyer market is stronger than ever because you do have a significant amount of cash in the system.

Even in New York City, over 60% of all deals this year in New York City will be done in pure cash. Pure cash. Yeah, not briefcases, but like a wire. I know, I know. Right. Yeah, just cash, which is exactly what the Fed wanted by raising the benchmark rate. You bring in cash that's sitting in accounts, sitting in the trillions of dollars. Just sitting there doing nothing, raise the rate.

No, okay, now I have to spend it. That's what you want. Okay. You want that. And time heals all policy wounds. So, you know, people that are in their COVID interest rate locked in feeling, which is most people, especially most people who bought within the last five years, will eventually have life changes and need to move and it'll bring more inventory to the market. I think next year we'll see somewhere between 10 and 15 percent more trades. Okay.

Not necessarily more inventory, but more trades. And that's what you want. You want people to just move, move. You want investors to invest and speculate. You want banks to lend. You want liquidity in the system. And to do that, you need trades. Do you think trades will be a result of price points coming down? Or do you think people will still trade at the same price point? It depends on the market. Yeah, I know. It seems like a question mark. Totally depends on the market.

I know. Most of those, sorry, most of the homes that have come off market to like one of your earlier stats. A lot of that is heavily weighted in three cities, which is Miami, Houston, and Denver. because those are with with with with the section this market's not that big of like Austin Phoenix okay because a lot of those markets experience rapid price growth of the past couple years okay and it's not that the markets are crashing there's nothing broken there's nothing crashing they're just giving back some of the gains interesting markets go up markets go down and they go back up again yeah they go down they go back up okay so we've seen that right especially since 2020 up up up now it's starting to pull back a little bit you can't

give cookie cutter guidelines, but I'm asking for a cookie cutter guideline. If you, like, at what point, if there's a listing today, and I'm seeing it priced over, like, let's say in 2022, they transacted for $3 million or $2.23, they transacted for $3.1. And they're listing it today at 3.6. And they've done nothing. Yeah. Is there a year from a certain guideline, you'd be like, if you're paying over the price point of a 2023 listing, it's yellow territory, red flag territory. Do you have like a year benchmark? Like, hey, no, no. But most loan data is public in most markets. So you can see if that person has a mortgage. Okay. And oftentimes you can try to figure out what type of mortgage the seller has. And you can say, okay, they bought it in

2023. They have a five one arm, right? Or they have some sketchy financing. Or listen, they have a 30 year fix at 3%. You're screwed. They have no, there's no need to ever move. That way you understand. Like, where am I, where am I moving? What am I doing? It's like, holiday sales in December, a lot of times it's because they have an overstock on inventory and they're going to dump it or they're going to sell it to you for cheap. Okay, I can get it as cheap as I possibly can. Yeah. Okay. Cool. Talking about policy, you saw President Trump floored the idea of introducing this government back to 50-year, fixed-rate mortgage for the agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. What's your take on it? For it against it and why?

No one's going to have a mortgage for 50 years, so it kind of doesn't matter. If it's something that'll lower pricing, it'll help. They've done it in markets in Europe. They have it in Japan. it hasn't crashed the market it is a tool to give a bank the ability to underwrite a lower monthly payment doesn't mean you can't sell your home in three years doesn't mean you can't sell it in 10 years right you're still going to pay your fixed rate because you're going to have principal plus interest but if you can amortize it over 50 years instead of 30 you just bring down the monthly you know if you could do a hundred year people have to stop paying attention to headlines and they have to actually read articles yeah and go into it right yeah just look at

just look at the last paragraph of every article, and that's when the actual truth is in the editorial. It's never in the headline, which is there to grab your attention and get your click. It's like, you're going to die. Earlier today, it was raining, you know? Read the last paragraph only ever. And it's just about the bank's ability to underwrite the loan

in case something happens to you or you miss your payment. Yeah. And if Fannie and Freddie can backstop it because all the loans, especially at the jumbo size, typically are sold, right, in Tiffany and Freddie. You know, we're all, we're basically all borrowing our houses from the federal government anyway. Anyway, yeah.

And then we're paying the government, rent, disguised as property taxes, to borrow the land anyway. And then we're paying them to collect an income, and then we're paying them for the right to go shopping, right? So, like, we all work for the government. Yeah. Anyone who thinks they don't, anyone who says, I'm an independent contractor,

I'm a free spirit, I'm a bird, you work for the government. Interesting. That is your job. You're here to provide tax revenue for everybody else. So anyone who's already saying, down with capitalism,

let's go socialism, let's go communist. What world do you think we live in already? We're already paying for everybody. You pay a higher percentage, I pay a higher, but she pays a smaller percentage, he pays this, that the other, you know, we're already all chipping in at the same exact time. And if you don't chip in, you go to jail. Simply, simply put,

I think the big thing that I'll take away from that, too, was like, there's so much clickbait out there. And when we hear it about the proposed plan of 50 year mortgages, all you would see at headlines is how much interest you would pay in 50 years versus 30 years. But I think your point's exactly right on is that it's going to allow for more entry point. Right. So you don't have to be paying this fucking thing off for 50 years. But it's going to reduce your monthly payment. And it creates easier entry points, which hopefully then stimulates the market. Cold mornings, holiday plans, this is when I need my wardrobe to just work. That's why I'm all about quince.

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at a fraction of the price point. And they do it with ethical production and all the products are made from premium materials. get your wardrobe sorted and your gifeless handled with quince. Don't wait. Go to quince.com slash trading secrets for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's Q-U-I-N-C-E dot com slash trading secrets. Free shipping and 365 day returns, quince.com slash trading secrets. So then that's obviously Trump's plan, but now in New York City. Mayor Mendani has just been elected and there's a lot of clickbait on both sides with this new election. How do you think in your world it'll impact real estate only? I hope he's great. Yeah. I can only hope. He does things that are great for New York City, which means you have

to do things at the top of the funnel and at the bottom of the funnel. Any mayor, they want to be a good one. They have to not act like a student body president who reports up to the governor, who's the principal, who reports up to the chairman of the education, which is Trump, right? Yeah. You have to act like a CEO. which means you have to incentivize your C-suite to stay at your company and do good work. And you have to incentivize the interns, that there's a ladder here. It's going to be awesome. It's going to be great. Yeah. I have never seen a company work successfully where everyone is compensated the exact same when they all do different work. It doesn't work. It's never worked in the history of time. So I think it remains to be seen what he'll actually do. You know, he's not the mayor yet. If he freezes, if he tries to freeze rents more than they are,

already are, you will, but you're also not freezing taxes. You're not freezing expense. You're not freezing maintenance costs. Then any landlord is just going to abandon and give the keys back, which is what happened in the 60s, which means you have vacant homes. There is a class action from landlords. I think it's in the Supreme Court in New York right now against the 2019 rent regulation bill because there are now tens and tens of thousands of apartments in New York City, a city that needs housing desperately. We need affordable housing desperately. Where they're saying your policy and your regulations, we cannot afford to update these apartments. And so we're keeping them vacant or we're abandoning them. That's the little ass backwards. Right? Completely backwards. And you can

say, down with the landlord, down with the man, Dan, and I get it. But like, would you give an apartment for free and pay for someone else to live there? Yeah. You know, that's what you pay tax for. Yeah. So, like, you already are doing that. So the rent freeze is incredibly difficult. I think what they've done through either a city of yes and through other policies to create more affordable housing as you build market rate, I think has been pretty great, actually, and creating tax abatements to incentivize developers to build free market, right, build business, but then you also have to bring in city parks.

You also, to get the right to build there and to go that high, you also have to do a school. You also have to do 200 units of affordable for police officers, school teachers, right, firemen, and you have to put it into a lottery system. I think it's like actually pretty great. And so if you run on a policy of creating versus taking like any market and any business can be very successful. If he disincentivizes developers and home builders to create here, all it's going to do is exactly what I talked about before. you're going to make the voting base say, hoorah, but all you're going to do is further rig the system against those who can't afford to be in it

because what's going to happen to all the properties that currently exist if there's no more competition coming, everything gets more expensive. Sure. Right? No new buildings. No one's going to build here. They've all gone to Florida. So everyone's just going to hold on.

I would go to your point. I paid 3.3 last year. I'll move, but 4.3. Right. What are you going to do if it's the only one? Yeah. Someone's going to pay for it. Someone's going to pay for it.

So we'll see. I don't know. There's a lot of, I think there's also a lot of headlines, too, that your clientele is moving. Do you actually see that? Is that the reality? Is that the bottom paragraph of that clip? No. There is no place like New York.

It's just the best city on the planet, no matter what. New York or nowhere. You said it in your show. Yeah, 100%. Yeah. You know, New York is an incredible city that is architecturally significant. in a way that you can't do a lot to the kind of energy that it's here because it's just here. And I'm all for making New York more affordable.

The prices are insane. I'm not sitting here saying, man, $10,000 a month per bedroom, a solid deal. It's crazy. God, I'm good. It's crazy. It's completely crazy. Yeah. You know, I want New York City to be more affordable.

I want to be safe. I want the schools to be great. And I want there to be more programs that, create innovation and that are really, really geared on kids. Like that is not your question, but like, as you really, really think about the problems we're dealing with today, you know, are in part because of a lack of appropriate education 30 years ago. Yeah, yeah, 100%. You know? 100%. And so there should be incentivized programs that one bring companies to the city to bring more jobs, you know, like I think it would be so cool if there was a like a tax abatement because you have to have

incentive where corporations, if you come to New York and you create a certain amount of jobs and you create an innovator program that gives, let's say, employment to kids from underserved schools and they get to have a job with you. If they create unique business ideas, why not try that? Yeah. Right. And then every company would want to be here. Like, wait a minute. New York City is the most creative and innovative city in the planet and we're incentivized to also be here. Fine. And you know what, I'll create 10,000 jobs in New York. Why is that a bad thing? It's a greater good play.

It's a PR play. It's also probably an ROI play. Yeah. And you can say, no, that's not right. Pay your fair share. And that's fine if you control the entire globe. Because there's always another place to go, right? Which also happened in 1994 with NAFTA.

Like, why do you think we are where we are with tariffs and the cost of goods sold here? is because everyone was up in arms in the early 90s about the cost of goods sold in the United States. Sure. And so they created NAFTA, which pushed manufacturing to Canada and to Mexico to bring down costs, which in return removed jobs and decimated cities.

You go to upstate New York. City, city after town, after town, after town that used to be where they would manufacture air conditioners, manufacture microwaves. Syracuse. Don't do it anymore, yeah, right? It's rough, Utica. These are markets that no one talks about, and that's just one state because they made things cheaper, which is what everyone wanted and everyone was up in arms.

And now they're sitting here and saying, well, where's our jobs? You can't have your cake and eat it too. Right. It comes back to bite you. I mean, this is nowhere in my repertoire to ask, but as you're bringing solutions and talking about policy and how it impacts your business, I mean, is politics potentially in your future? No, I like my life. In no capacity? I like my life.

You like your sanity. Yeah, man. I don't, I don't. It does not, would not do me any good or benefit. You know, I like having the influence that I have at, you know, my level. But I don't think politics are the same career today that they used to be. I mean, I think if one day you took a shot at running for mayor in New York City, I think that would severely. Dude, I got, so I got calls.

So what was it? I think it was the middle of July, or the beginning of July. And I got two calls from very, very serious people in New York City, intense clients, hedge fund and private equity. And it both happened on the same day because it was an important day in July in New York City. And both of them, the same thing. How much money do you think you'd need to run for mayor? And I was like, what do you mean? I would never do it to make money.

But in order to win that race, it's going to take more than, more than money. Also, no, I'm not going to do that. Did you name a price or like, what it would take? No, no. I'll be just like, hell now. It's like, no, it's like, you do it. You have all the money. You figure it out.

It's like, come on, you see, Bloomberg did it. You can do it. They don't have the face you got, though. Everyone's talking about supplements. Well, let me tell you one that you need to know about creatine. And it's not just for building muscle. It becomes a daily essential for your strength, focus, recovery, aging, and cognitive performance. And now, Momentus is making your daily creatine routine easier than ever with new creatine chews.

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That's live momentus.com promo code trading secrets. All right, let's go back into things that are changing and happening that we all can connect to. Federal Reserve Met this morning. It looks like they're going to cut interest rates down 25 basis points. This will be the third cut of the year. We hear a lot about it. There's a lot of speculation as to what it will and won't do. When you see these cuts, does it severe?

impact the real estate market? What should we think about as consumers, buyers, sellers? The market is affected by confidence more than it is pure data, right? So the three cuts we've had this year have been priced in since last year because they've been anticipated. Right. If they'd cut it like a hundred basis points, then it would be a shock to the system. Now you're cooking. And you'd be cooking, but it probably also wouldn't be healthy. Like you also don't want to flood the market in any way, shape, or form. True. Which, when they raise rates, like in 2022,

no one anticipated rates rising that fast. And so you have, like, career deaths, interest rate deaths across the board. Yeah. You know, you have, obviously, there's, you know, office vacancy, you know, people giving keys back, you know, especially with balloons, like, you know, just, just, just rates that they just never anticipated would go from two to six. Yeah, for sure. How do you, you can't underwrite that kind of movement.

Yeah. the market appreciates predictability on the way up and predictability on the way down that's why you see bear markets last so short now we're going to bear market on thursday bull markets here by monday because information is 24-7 crypto trades 24-7 right futures trade 24-7 relatively speaking and so you don't have to wait anymore until the next workday to make a decision on your future And so, like, the shock to the system happens so fast. And then once people know where we're going, like, are we going down 50%, 10%, 2%, okay, I'm going to make a bet here, okay?

You go on Kalshi or you go on at Kalshi or you go on polymarket. You're like, is the market, okay, 50% of the people say it's only going to, okay, that's what it's going to be. By Monday, we're right back up because people have priced in the bottom. Right. And that's why the market just like this all the time. Left and right. Talk about predictability. One of the things I think I've heard you talk about is that you believe that

as interest rates are cut, divorce rates will increase. That's a nice little intersection of love and money, what you're talking about in this podcast. Tell me a little bit about that prediction. Yeah, the gray, the gray divorce. Yeah, is that we call it the gray divorce? I don't know if I'm calling it that. Yeah, okay. First time I heard about it was you talk about an interview. Because, you know, we have our pulse on the market and we get the calls. Yeah. And so when interest, you know, a lot of people who are married, who have owned a home or two, they have loans and those loans from 2009 to 2021-ish right like I said 90% are under you know 5% most of them are under 4% and a lot of people have either you know adjustable rate mortgages or fixed mortgages that are somewhere in the threes okay so when rates went up to in 2022 into the sixes and they went into the sevens and touched eight for a second if you're thinking about leaving your partner or divorcing it's It's a financial decision.

It's not just a sex decision, right? Or it's not just a love or intimacy decision. And so what you see is you see in-house separation into other bedrooms because the mortgage is just too good. So sex is bad, but the interest rate's too good, babe. And so we can't separate, right? So that's what happens. So we get calls from the husband or the wife,

sometimes the attorney who are saying, hey, where do you think rates are gonna go? I've got to figure out when my client feels that they'll be able to buy their next home should they leave their husband. I'm like, is the divorce dependent on the Fed lowering rates? And the answer, a good chunk of the time is yes, yes. So I think as rates come down, you'll see movement in general. Yeah. We need older people to move. Yep.

We need younger people to buy instead of rent. And you will see a flood of divorce that gets filed because they'll actually be able to sell their home and afford to where they're both going to go to next. When that happens, we're clipping this. It's going to go viral. I prospect all day long. Yeah. I talk to a new divorce attorney once every other day to introduce myself and our firm and let them know when this happens, we're ready to go.

So divorce attorneys are a referral source for you. Wealth managers and divorce attorneys are the two largest referral sources in the United States. Would have never thought that. 100%. It makes sense. Everyone goes to the divorce attorney or to the wealth manager before doing anything with money. Never. Or accountant, right?

wealth manager account and all those. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's wild. Divorce attorneys being your biggest referral source. It's incredible. All right, you said this. Average price point in higher and New York City is higher than it's ever been before. Cost of rents higher than it's ever been before. Medium prices off the charts. These were your words. I'm curious just how is it a year from now? We've already said you think there's going to be 10 to 15% more trade. You got the crystal ball in front of you. You got to predict. In a year from now, are those prices? Is the cost of rent,

all those things continuing to move up? Or do you think we see pullback? What's your prediction? on average you won't see pullback i think i think pricing will increase somewhere between three and four percent over the next 12 months okay it just has to there's there's nothing there's nothing else to buy you need to the only way you bring down prices is not with rates you lower rates prices go up because it's all about course to carry yeah the only way you lower prices is you either scare everybody so fear and we've done that before you know one time was called COVID, right, for a short period of time, right? You have 2008, you have terrorist attacks, you have weather events, right? People are afraid, mass unemployment, et cetera. Or you create new

inventory. Like you were in Manhattan, right? One of the ways prices got lowered on the west side of the city is that related cut a deal with the MTA and many other organizations to create new land on top of the train tracks in Hudson Yards. So the yards are there, but it's all trains. So they said, what if we could figure out a way to engineer a platform to put skyscrapers above the train's? And when they did that, they announced thousands of new apartments. All the homes in the immediate area, when people knew that was coming, immediately became less expensive. Because you had new inventory coming to the table. Like a grocery store. You go to a grocery store and you go and get an apple, they might have been there for two days, right? It's fine. You're looking at them. But if you see someone wheeling in a bushel full of brand new apples, you're going to be like, I'll just wait for the new one. Yeah. Unless they mark these down. Then you're like, well, these are fine. Better deal. Sure. But then some people are still going to really want the new apples. Yeah. It is the same thing. Okay. All right. That's a good analogy, good breakdown. And it's, I don't know, it's just interesting to hear because there's so much speculation on a pullback. There's so much speculation on another 2008. And your forecast, you don't see it coming anytime.

soon. No, I think the, I think household strain is the next crisis, whether it becomes a consumer debt crisis, a credit crisis, there is so much cash in the system that it'll be handled relatively pretty quickly. Yeah. The tariff crisis was five days. Yeah, that was quick. But those five days were the end of the world. That's true. Things are bad. They've never been worse. And when things are great, they're never going to be, but dude, let's go. We want to go to go Vegas tonight? Let's go. Let's go. Let's rip. Let's go. And then you probably have, you know, I think markets are trading it at much, much, much higher multiples of earnings than they should because there's mass speculation.

Andrew Ross Sorkin just wrote 1929 about the crash in 1929 going through how they got there, starting with like the creation of the federal income tax in 1911, all the way through, talk about taxes, all the way through the bubble bursting, you know, and that was a really, really bad time and it lasted like 20 years yeah you know today if there were a massive pullback i think it would again last months not years and because the market knows that and because people have gone through 2008 not that long ago and 2020 not that long ago sure it'll recover so quickly because everyone's just going to be waiting for it yeah what happens they're going to jump on it and by Monday it'll be gone makes sense efficient markets like time i think yours at all in

efficiencies. You think about what happened 2008. Think about the regulations of the banks right now. Any of those holes that were in the ship are plugged or at least, they're a lot smaller. So if something like that happens, you're right, correction becomes so much faster, which is beautiful for your business. Yeah, same thing with housing. You know, you cannot get an adjustable rate loan because of Dodd-Frank after 2008, unless you qualify at the fixed rate monthly cost. Now, if there's mass layoffs, no one's going to qualify. Right. Okay. So that's kind of what happened in 2008, too. There was mass layoffs. So it didn't matter if you were qualified before or not. You don't have the job anymore. Right. But there's also so many ways to

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Again, visitubico.com and use code Jason at purchase for $5 off a Ubiqui 5C NFC. And that's a good transition because we're going to transition from real estate to how it's changed for you into entertainment because I only got so much time with you and we have to get into owning Manhattan. So the game's changed in a lot of ways. you got owning Manhattan season two you talk a lot about going on the offense in season two. One thing you had to go

on the offense with is also production. You got a lot of competition now. You got selling O.C., you got selling sunset. There's a lot of real estate market show. So it's from a producing standpoint. When you go into season two, how are you going in the offense, not in real estate, but in production and entertainment to be like, we will be the best real estate show out there. What are some things behind the

scenes that happened? I wanted to create a TV show no one had seen before. and you have to do that each season. Otherwise, you do not value the viewer's time because there's too many other options. And so I put myself in the viewer's seat and I said, what would I like watch? What would grab my attention?

What if it's a reality show that shot like a docudrama and plays like an eight-hour movie that is focused on the work that is told through my eyes with voices. over a narrative thread throughout and then right when people are wondering what am I watching I turned to camera and I look the viewer dead in the eye and that grabs everybody and it was a big big risk because I do it twice in season two at very very pivotal moments and it throws everyone off because you're like hey I'm gonna sit down and watch a reality show about real this what it did it what did you rewind and the amount it's even getting the data from Netflix is so interesting because when it first happens people pause and go back

10 seconds because they think it's a mistake and they can track that data and they'll show you the rewind back yeah yeah yeah everything it's that's that's true it's insane to watch and i wanted to create something that was that was gripping that was worthy of people's time i get so annoyed when i spend time watching something lazy, where I'm like, you know, what else could I have done with those 30 minutes? I could have been with my daughter. I could have worked out. I could, I could have slept. I could have worked. I could have watched something else, right? It's content is a meritocracy now. You're only as good as your last episode or your last season. And so I really wanted to make sure that this show wasn't just visually appealing, but was, had story that was told in such a way

that people don't fully understand what they're watching until they do. And I think we've created a new genre. I think it is a heightened docu occupational series that you're going to start to see more businesses start to create. They better fucking thank me. Last time you were on, you talked about if the show flopped what you thought the earned media value would be, but then you were projecting what it could be if it did well.

now season two has been filmed, it's aired. What do you think the earned media value has been for season one and season two for Sirhan? No, 100 million dollars. Damn, that's a big number. 500,000 was your estimation if it flopped. So obviously, that's far off. The world has also changed since the last time I was here.

Netflix is the largest distribution funnel on planet Earth for quality. It's a big difference. Yeah. Because YouTube is massive, but it varies in quality because it's user-generated. Netflix is not. And so people who are tuning in expect quality,

which for me is a better audience to be in front of. We also created a show, too, that plays for families. More kids watch owning Manhattan than any other reality TV show. Isn't that crazy? It is crazy. It's actually mind-blowing because it's also impactful, right? It's not.

I think it's educational. I think they watch with their parents. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. And you can't do that with shows like Love Island and things like that. It's just not, it's not sustainable. It's interesting too because I think, you know, everyone plays for clicks. Yeah. And they play for views. Sure. And what's the easiest way to do that? It's through sex and language, right? How do I, how can I, how can I like sex language dating? Like, how can I, how can I be as controversial as possible? Yeah. And we took a calculated risk that just said, I think there's a big audience out there who's actually going the other way. It's like, what can I watch with my son? What can I watch with my father-in-law? What can I watch with my employees and not have to look around the room and say,

hey, did you see that episode last night? Yeah. Like, what can I watch that's also, you know, insane and crazy? Because this show is a lot. But that also, like, brings some decency back to the workplace. And I appreciate that very much even about, like, you know, Jason Sudecas and the team that created Ted Lassow. Sure.

Like, that's a, like, you sit there. there and you like where's the controversy other than the fact that it's one of the greatest TV shows ever made right it's just that's good point it's just awesome yeah and I think a lot of that you know has to do with how we thought about getting into the show and the story and do you want you mentioned things like I don't want people to get bored I want to catch like rate is they're getting bored I'm going to bring them back do you watch your competitors like selling sunset or any of those and say hey we're not going to do that or is that part of the process when you're yeah you have to be aware just like building a building or yeah or creating a house yeah you

you can't just create what you want. Like, what's going to sell? Yeah. What are people going to actually want to buy? You know, you can make something bright orange and yay for you. Not a lot of buyers are going to pay you for that one. Yeah. And so we look at the competition and we see what works and we see what doesn't work.

And we see what we like. And we just take a lot of inspiration from lots of movies. Like, an example, I haven't talked about this at all. There's a small movie that I really, really like. So it shot in New York on a low budget. It's called Arbitrage with Richard Gear. Okay. It's a great movie about a hedge fund manager.

who lies and is in hot water. And a lot of stuff happens and the movie does not let go. And if anyone's ever, like, worked into bank or worked in finance, Richard Gere gives a incredibly tense, stressful performance. And when that movie's over,

you're just like, thank God. Yeah. There is a moment when that opens where he's doing the news, he's in a private jet, you start camera outside the airplane as it's flying, and then you go inside into a scene and I borrowed from that

in creating our opening and our intro. So there's a little nod to arbitrage which is a movie that not a whole lot of people have seen because it's like a small business film that I think is cool. There's a lot of like little random Easter eggs and then there's a massive pivot and I would say a big change in arc this season

that when you get to the final moment of the finale people are so taken aback at what they just saw that they're re-watching it and so we also got a note from Netflix for like we've never seen this many people in such a short period of time watch a reality show twice

wow so they're re-watching it because when you go back and re-watch season two you watch it with an entirely new set of eyes and then it's kind of like fun that way yeah another Easter egg slash I think I can foreshadow into the entire season is that I love this line you haven't walked into the prison yard and fought the meanest guy in line yet, right? And you're talking about

the fact that it's time to go on the offense. People are talking shit about you. And I wanted to connect like that theme out of the show into what I know people that listen to this podcast deal with. I think in a lot of worlds that growth equals enemies and with growth equals mislabeling reputational risks because of lies and rumors. And you had mentioned that your competition is stealing your agents and your opportunities by mislabeling you or by talking shit about you. How do you overcome that? How do you deal with just bullshit lies and mislabeling and attacks on your character and reputation? And do you think growth equals enemies? I think you should never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake.

And you keep your blinders on and you just move forward. And the world will pay you back even if it's uncomfortable in the beginning. So I welcome the noise. I think it's great. I think it's, I think it's fine. I'd be concerned if they weren't talking, you know. And so we create a significant amount of, I would say, engagement. 90% of it is for good. 10% of it is probably not. But it keeps the conversation going and hits the drumbeat that you need to continue to push the markets. I think it's fine. I try to be good and do what's right for everybody. And I think you have to be really nice and play well in the sandbox. And I think that's also been a big thing for our business and our growth. Like we have, you know, people who work with us now all over the

world. And I don't have to go buy them to tell them to come work with me. And we don't have to convince them. They're just waiting because they know that we also have built a business, I think, in the right way, which is we started with purpose. We then aligned the right people with the right purpose. And when you have that, you can sell any product. And when you do that, you can make all the profit in the world. And those are the four P's. Most businesses go the other way. There are a bunch of guys and they're sitting around like, hey, let's make money. Right? How do we make the most money? So to start with profit. Like, okay, well, let's go disrupt this and we're going to sell new types of speakers. Okay, so then they go to product. Okay, well, who makes those speakers, that guy, that guy,

we're going to pay him, whatever it is. We're going to raise money. Then they've got the people who can make the speakers and then they pay a branding or creative agency to come up with some bullshit purpose and they're like we are here for the orcas you know and like and then sometimes you get lucky most of the times you get burned because then people bail if there's no profit the product doesn't work if it's the wrong people and when everyone realizes that your purpose was full of shit you're just left with a dumb idea i like it i like it the p pp Build your complete business identity in just 10 clicks and in 10 minutes. When you want more, start your business with Northwest registered agent.

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Get more with Northwest Registered Agent at www. northwestregisteredagent.com backslash paid trading secrets. You said people are waiting in line, which they are, but there's also people that aren't waiting in line that you have to go to. We saw that with Peter in season two from Corcoran. You give them 200 Amsterdam, 300 million in listings. That's what we see. Behind the scenes, when you're trying to take top talent,

is there any other things that happen? like do you have signing bonuses or their backdoor cash exchanges titles is there anything else that happens to bring these people on no we don't we don't buy anybody it was one of the things that i set out in 2020 i'm like if i have to build a business where i have to buy revenue then i don't want to do it do people buy revenue from you when they're poaching agents oh yeah for sure how money talks say hey if you leave come to sir hand will give you $250,000 if you sign up for five years if you sign up for two years if you stay for the two or five years you don't have to pay us back if you can leave after that and then you know money money's money so people listen to the money you know it's like it's like sports contracts yeah at the end of the day

you know like didn't someone just leave the Mets today yeah for 155 million dollars who are the cardinals yeah you know even stephen couldn't stop that one yeah that guy's got all the money so you know yeah people do do that but then also my thing has always been if you come to me for the money then you're gonna stay for the money like a bad marriage if you marry him for the money and then the market implodes, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, then you're like a bad episode of that show Billions where it's like, how do I get out of this? Sure.

Right? I didn't marry you for your looks or this. I made you for the money. So same thing in a company. If people are coming to you for the money or coming to you for the deal, you'll always have to give him a deal. It's like e-commerce businesses that just roll discount after discount after discount. That's the only reason you're filling your bucket.

You have a hole in your bucket because no one's going to stay until you give him another deal and eventually your discount goes to zero which is called bankruptcy and so for us we've always sold the opportunity you know i had an agent who was at compass in miami compass has bought all revenue yeah that's been their model and it's worked awesomely great stocks do a well too totally totally crushed it it's been awesome to watch but that was their model and we do literally the exact opposite but we now have compass agents who come to us say compass offered me a million dollars to stay but I know with you that's just a couple deals and I can leave whenever I want

I choose freedom over golden handcuffs Wow Yeah and I have that framed That is a good that's a good frame But real estate agents they make money up the commission But companies like Compass will put a million dollar Injection to keep and retain someone Yeah top talent it's like private wealth managers

Yeah same thing okay It's like you watch a big short You know there are teams within Merrill Lynch Teams within UBS and you know Other banks will pay you you know a multiple of your book can bring you over because they want your client base to upsell other products. Yeah, makes sense. On season two, we saw the $60 million transaction.

I know you've done larger transactions, but with that one, what was the, we're talking about money and I'm just curious, training serious. What's the commission on that? I mean, it was Peter. Should have been me, but I'm okay. That was a great negotiation. What a great scene. Dude, this show is so good.

It is good. I think it was 2.5% of $60 million. I think it made $1.8. 1.8. Okay, so that's 3% of 60 million. So 1.8, does he walk away with 1. pointing or like how to break down? He's a split with the company. Okay. And just you don't have to give me specific information on that split. I just don't know. For brokerage, but how does the

splits range? Depends on the marketplace. It depends on your deal, right? And splits range anywhere from, let's say, 50-50 to like 90, 10, or the agent will take 90. But you get what you pay for. So if the agent wants nothing, you're not going to do anything. You know, they're in like Nashville. Yeah. Right. They pay for everything literally. Then you're just sort of paying a fee to the to hold license. Got it. And brand awareness. Okay.

But the company doesn't make any money. Most of the real estate brokers out there that exist, especially the public traded ones, like EXP, real, all these companies. The reason they trade so low is because they make no money. The revenue is huge. Yeah. But they don't actually make any money because the people making the money are the agents. Yeah.

So they tell an agent count, a market share, and a revenue story that, like, is the way I think you built brokerages for the past 20 years, but it's not the way you built it going forward. going forward. This is a selfish question, but you've got over $10 billion in listing. You're at the pinnacle of all areas of your career, and you've mentioned on interviews, there's no nobility in sitting behind closed doors anymore. You're an open book. You don't care. Privacy means nothing. You've talked a little bit about maybe your wife and you behind the scenes have discussions about that as she thinks the opposite. But in this world, it feels like one misstep when you open your entire book could ruin your entire career. And you've built so much. You've come so far.

You are so high. Don't you worry about some of the risks in being such an open book, one misstep. And if not, what's advice to people that are afraid to put their privacy on the line for the benefit of their lives, their financial lives, their financial lives, the professional lives? You have to burn your boats, meaning you have to pick a path and go all in. You're either private or you're public today. You can't have it both ways. Where people do get burned is, I'm going to be as public as I want to be. But all of this is private. And sure, right? I chose public all in from like the moment I wake up to the end of the day.

You can hate it, doesn't matter. I don't care. It's worked for me. And so I'm so just authentically open and honest. I'll talk about anything that when mistakes happen and I do fuck up and stupid shit goes down, like it's just another day. And it's not like, oh, oh, they didn't want you to see this. Yeah.

A friend of mine and client, Dave Portnaway, a barstool, you know, chose public. Some things his life is private, but he has gone through a significant amount of ups and downs. But the market almost, like, expects the brutal honesty and knows that he's just going to come out and tell it exactly the way it is. And he's a bigger entrepreneur today than he was yesterday. because the market understands what's coming, right? They priced in the predictability, like we talked about before. Makes sense. All right, I have a couple more for you.

Fenton Bailey, a producer on the show. He was interviewed by Variety. Some people don't believe he has it. He's referring to you. Ryan won't like me for saying this, but he is a big old softie. I found that quote from him quite interesting. You're looking back at season two. What are you most surprised that you learned about yourself?

I think that was from a variety article yesterday. So you are on top of it. I see that, and that was on the bottom of the article. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I got to the meat. I mean, I know what scene he's talking about. He's, and I think what he's saying is Ryan puts on a tough guy persona, CEO, he's probably sitting there in a suit and a tie.

But deep down inside, he's just a little boy like everybody else, masquerading as a grown-up, and he still gets scared, and he still makes mistakes, and he still, wants to cry to his mom and have a cookie and all of that stuff is true. And so like it's all out there. And the show follows a lot of funny. I mean, the show is funny. I think in the way like succession is funny, but also gets incredibly uncomfortable. Like, I don't like watching people cry on TV, especially men. Like, it's weird for a guy to watch another guy cry. But when it happens, you know, you know, it's happening and it's not on purpose. I have a breakdown with

my ex-assistant and it's meant a lot to a lot of people who have watched it. So like for the first time, I was really, really, really able to relate to you because I felt like that two weeks ago when this happened. And the emails and the DMs and everything is. So anyway, so if I could help the people out there who are also, you know, struggling with figuring out who they are as human beings just like the rest of us. They're great. He's not just a robot. He's got the emotions, vulnerability equals connections, and you've done it in this season. Again, season three greenlit? He's been four days. Come on. I asked you the same thing last year. You gave me the same response. So more to come. Last question I got

on this is you're selling a negotiating machine. You're going to season two. Is there anything you can share about what you negotiated going into season two that was different going into season one with Netflix? Oh, no. they're all, that's why Netflix makes so much money. Because they, all their deals are pretty standard. Okay. And no, you know who paid the most? Bravo.

Okay. Like, those were real checks. Interesting. Those were real checks. And that was a long time ago. What were they paying? What were they paying? A lot.

Like how much? A lot. It was, I mean, those were like, if I didn't sell, like I guess, especially younger, I wouldn't have needed to, and that's why you have so many reality stars, just do reality and then brand deals, et cetera, they don't actually have to go do the thing. Yeah.

I always actually like doing the thing. You can make a lot more money selling real estate. Yeah. But, you know, they would pay a lot. Netflix understands the power of their platform and they want to have great content. But they also put out a new TV show every seven hours. Yeah. It's crazy.

You know? Yeah. On average. And are the biggest in the world. So, you know, if anything, anybody will tell you, like, they would pay to be on the platform. And you do. You invest. What season two cost me is so in the red compared to what I made making season two. Interesting. Until you start to count the brand value, the savings and marketing and advertising, and the business growth that we'll have, which will be, I don't know,

a thousand X, which we don't have a percentage to the network for, you know, which is the tradeoff, but you have to do the work. You have to do work. A hundred million dollars of earned media value, the cost that you're spending are probably worth it. The last one I got for you, fellow bachelor alum, Tyler Cameron, is now an agent at Sirhan. Come on, give it to me. How's you doing? He's great. I think he's got his first couple, like, cool listings. Okay. Every agent, he's based in Florida. Every Surhan agent, we have agents all over Florida is trying to work with him. Yeah. For various reasons, I'm sure. He's awesome. Dude, Tyler is the nicest, coolest, calmest guy. Like, I'm sure he has. I'm sure he has.

bad days but you wouldn't know it yeah yeah you know like he just is and he's a lot of dude he's a big he's a big he like a brick shit he walks in sideways through a door and he doesn't even need to yeah that's a power move that's a power doing that you walk in and just move in sideways yeah because it gives the person in the room like do you just need to do that or his what what kind of shoulder workout does he do that's it sends a message it's like the silver back gorilla standing up Tyler Cameron walks in it's awesome It's awesome

He's incredible He is the best We're big fans of Tyler So I'm glad to hear he's doing well Dude I can ask you a million more questions We've only got some time I appreciate you coming on trading secrets Always good to have you here

We've got to wrap with the trading secrets So give me something in the last year Maybe a trading secret you learned about yourself Real Estate money, Relationships, whatever it could be But something different than the trading secrets You've given us in the past A lot of my life over the past year

Has been growing this business with great people and learning what it's like to hire and what it's like to fire and how to have difficult conversations. And I have learned now the hard way that great people are uncomfortably expensive, but bad people will cost you a fucking fortune. Or a lifetime. Or entire career and a entire legacy. It's a hell of a trading secret. I think for me, watching back season two and having you on over the years, I think the trading secret I've taken away is it's like the areas are discomfort that you continue to step in, like going from defense to offense and having these tough conversations and putting yourself in positions where you're crying on national

intelligence from the entire world. It's these positions of discomfort that actually lead to continued growth. It's just that so often we get more financial safety, we get more fame, you get more, whatever it is, notoriety, and you actually stay clear of those. And I think one thing, you just do it every day. You continue to step in that area of discomfort, which creates unbelievable growth. And so many people avoid those. So that's a trading secret. I've learned from you in the last year.

And thank you for coming up podcast. Where can everyone find everything you're going on? Just go to Netflix and watch owning minutes. Okay. I like it. That's his request. Go to Netflix, watch it. And you're competing against some big.

You got stranger things right there. You got P. Diddy. You got P. Diddy. Come on. Come on. Give him a break. from Game of Lina from Game of Thrones decided to drop like a TV show to see him meetings out there.

But you're still ripping in the top 10. Can't be stopped. Ryan Sirhan, thank you for being on training secrets. Ding, ding, ding! We are back with the recap, the one,

the only, the curious Canadian is back on the ones and twos from his old fraternity leave. I'll tell you what, David, you leave for 14 days and my God has the world turn. upside down in the trading secrets world all for the best how you doing welcome back and let's make sure we got a recap with science or hint it's doing good good it's great to be back two weeks paternity leave i don't know if it was actually paternity leave but life is busy right

now um but life is great life is great we have another little male little little boy Caleb, Anthony Ardwin is in the house and Mama is doing great Ashley is doing amazing and let me tell you Jay the second time around it's just so different in so many different ways

Well first of all you're just as a parent You're so much more confident You really are able to The biggest difference is seeing What they become right in front of your eyes So Carter's two and a half Caleb's two weeks old To see what they become

allows you to soak in those little moments so much more because the best way I can explain it is when I change little baby Caleb on the changing table and he's this little tiny little nugget. He's so small. He's so delicate. I change his diaper. It's all I'm all fragile.

You know, you put him down and then Carter needs his diaper change. I'm lifting Carter up and I put, it's like a dinosaur's on the changing table. It's like two different species. So to see how fast they grow when Carter met Caleb for the first time, I bawled my eyes out.

It was more sweet, more emotional, more connected than I ever could have imagined. And Carter's being an amazing older brother. So it's been good so far. It's been good. It's been good. He's eating well. Ash is crushing the breastfeeding. He's sleeping really, really well.

So as far as having a toddler and a newborn goes, it's going as good as it can. It's unbelievable. How long was Ash in labor for? Eight minutes. What? Yeah, eight minutes. It was... But I've never heard of anything like that ever.

It was so wild compared to the first one. With Carter, she pushed for three and a half hours. And so she was in labor for eight minutes. Yeah, it was... Is that a world record? Dude, it was... I could do a whole podcast on like the play-by-play of it all, but at 11 p.m., they're like,

all right, you should get your sleep, like epidurals and you should be good. And then, like, as I'm, like, trying to get some sleep, she's, like, screaming in pain. And in the last delivery, when she got epidural, she couldn't feel anything to the point where, like, they had to decrease it. So I'm like, something's not working here. So they came and checked her. She had gone from seven centimeters dilated, 10 centimeters dilated in like 15 minutes. Like, it's time to push.

And eight minutes later, the baby was out. And it was like, what? How much did he weigh? He weighed six pounds, 11 ounces. So he was a little nugget. And he came three days early before his due date. But he was great. she did amazing like she the difference in her personal recovery from carter to

Caleb has given her so much more like energy confidence enthusiasm the breastfeeding's gone 10 times better so she's like super mom right now I was just gone for three days on a hockey road trip you know she had the toddler the newborn she's just she's in her element right now it's great to see so unbelievable so glad to hear ash is doing well and baby Caleb's doing healthy and well and that's a beautiful thing you got to love it and how about the sleep regimen you sleep sleeping? We are pretty good for anyone out there. Listen, if I could get a sponsored ad from anything, it should be the snoo. For those who don't know what a snoo is, it's an electronic motion and sound

detected bassinet where you put your baby in there. It's got four different levels in motions, all that replicate sounds that they're familiar with. And it helps themselves soothe. And Caleb's sleep in. Last night, he slept three and a half hours, woke up for feed, three hours woke up for a feed, and then his first four hours stint at less than two weeks old. So he's crushing it uh ash is crushing it the arwin household is full of love it's full of baby crying it's full of uh full of poopy diapers um but the best way possible but enough about my personal life before we get to ryan surhant congratulations to you mr jason tardick he is instagram official with a lovely katherine hurley and uh how are you feeling about it feeling good

It was Catherine's birthday Friday and yeah, I mean, it's, it's fun to share. You know, it's so funny because I've been private, obviously, about this relationship for a little bit here. And this podcast actually with Ryan Sirhan, like I was pretty confident, like I was excited and just feel so comfortable with where Catherine and I are and what our future looks like that I was, you know, excited to share that story. And but I was hesitant too, right? Because there's a lot of, I don't know, there's especially just looking in the rear room where there's a lot of headaches I can come with that, right? But then Ryan actually kind of motivated me in this podcast. Like, like when you live in that gray area, it's just not a great gray to live.

Like either get out there and open your life up or don't. You know what I mean? But this like 2026 going into it like half in, half out, like what do you do it? you know and he talked with him and i talked a little bit about that of course after the podcast too i got some different advice from them and yeah i mean i feel i feel great about she's you've met her she's one of the most special people in the world and uh yeah so excited to share that so it's exciting brother it's exciting it should be exciting i can't wait we're we're about due for jta uh 20 25 and i my favorite part of jta is always playing the teaser from what your 2025 what you thought it was

going to be like to seeing how it actually was and then i'm excited now that you're in this place in your life to hear what your 2026 teaser will be because you're definitely in a more a much more different place than any of the jtas how we've done before and i and i will say that katherine is she's so sweet um when i was able to come out to nashville and meet her um for the first time it just felt so natural um she was so inviting welcoming wanted to be around um truly see deemed really supportive of you, really wanted to know your best friends, which is, you know, for anybody you wanted to feel like,

you know, that your best friend is dating their best friend and that you all want to be in a room and hang out and get to know in each other. So she's great. So definitely Curious Canadian approved on that. Curious Canadian approved. Yeah, I remember the first time you guys met, I would just be like doing my thing.

And you two were like in the weeds for 45 minutes. I was talking about like all things left. Yeah, it was great. This is great. This is great. So then I guess, you know, one of the questions we'll have to ask everyone is, I've obviously talked a lot about our non-for-profit, wax, rocks, the rescue. Maybe we have her come on one time.

Maybe even JTA she pops in. I don't know. You guys give us five stars and let her know, should we have her on as a guest? I don't know. You know, that could be fun. Talk about the nonprofit rescue world. That is a world that's near and dear to your heart too. And I just saw that Teddy has a brother.

Now is that a, is that a in hair? Is that a stepbris? Is that Catherine's dog? How does that work? That's Catherine's dog. That's Catherine's dog. But we've, you know, we've gone through the, like, especially with rescues and they're based on, you know, their different traumas and things like that, you've got to be very, very intentional with how you integrate them and you have them meet. And, like, we did.

We worked with the trainer to do it because you just never know reactivity. And they get along so well. Like, they're best buddies. They're hanging out, left, right, and center. They're always together. So, yeah. moose and teddy moose and teddy bear

your dynamic dual baby I love the name moose that's good and it's the same thing with Carter and Caleb TikTok they showed us all the ways of how to have your toddler meet your newborn so he wasn't jealous and we followed all the steps there was really two main things we followed

which were like I mean trading secrets you gotta give him yeah yeah so number one is get your toddler a gift and wrap it up and say it's from his little brother so when he walks into the room he opens the gift from his little brother so he opened this big dinosaur truck

thing that carried cars dino cars he was so excited and then don't have the newborn in the arms have the newborn in his little bassinet so that he doesn't see that your he's like connected to you and he's like all alone so we had

him we had him open his gift he was all hyped and then he heard Caleb cry in the other room and he goes babies here and he ran over and he saw him a big hug He gave him a big kiss, and he was just obsessed with him. So it was like, I'll send you the video after this. It was, uh, it was something. Look at us.

We're growing up. We're growing up here. Holy smokes, you know, the cool thing is, you know, it's really cool about doing this is we're going on almost five years. And if we go back into the, you know, the old episodes, we go about to 2021, verse 2025, you think about how many different chapters and eras and roller coasters and life detours we've both been on and uh it feels like this one's a fun one uh in many ways and obviously different chapters but exciting for both of us but that is so cool i can't wait to see

that video very exciting listen this has been a 10 minute recap of our personal lives in the last two weeks ryan sir hand he's a three-time guest so you know what ryan we are we're taking this recap you've been we've recapped you two times we're going to recap you again we are taking our time right now on the recap to give the listeners a little update on on our personal eyes before we get into all of your genius that you you displayed in your in your podcast today and that's a great transition to them so three time around here obviously owning manhattan season two it's out right now it's crushing it you got to love having someone like ryan's her hand on because you got the pop culture vibes you have the business side which of course is real

estate and then we're living in this world right now we're just no one knows what is next. Houses are sitting on the market. It's not a buyer's market. It's not a seller's market. So many questions. You're seeing, of course, a lot of different policy and political change from our country to specifically New York City where he operates. And there's just so much to talk about. So I was very excited, David, to hear what you thought of this episode because there were so many technicalities, but then there were also so many generalisms. And there's also pop culture. Yeah. I mean, he's a genius. Like I alluded to there. I have my notes. The first, the first 10 minutes of this was an actual masterclass lots of little definitions that I didn't

exactly know but I felt like I could still follow I remember clicking into the episode as I was listening because I had all these notes down it was like eight minutes and 50 seconds into the episode I said that's it how like I actually think my brain's going to explode once I hit the 57 minute mark because I can't actually retain all this stuff um so it was incredible there was one definition I actually had no clue he's had 51 arm So I had no clue what that was. So five is like a five one arm. So arm A.R.M, right?

That's just, uh, it stands for adjustable rate mortgage. That's what the arm stands. Okay. So let's just break through each of them what they mean. So the five is going to be how long your interest rate is locked in for and it doesn't change. So for five, five years your interest rate is locked in. It will not change in five years.

The one means that after the five year period, your rate will adjust. annually every year based on whatever is happening in the market. So that's like your five one. Now, the big thing about that is your interest rate will actually be lower because if you think about like a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, think about the risk that a bank has to take in because how much interest rates can change within 30 years. With five years, it's only locked in for five years. So like if interest rates go up big time in five years from now, your payment's going to go up big time. But they'll usually have a lower interest rate. on a five-year one arm.

So, yeah, that's what an arm is, an adjustable-rate mortgage. That makes a lot of sense. That's actually what all my fellow Canadians function under for their mortgages. When I tell them that we do 15 and 30-year fixed, they can't believe it. They're all five years. And so their payments do adjust big time over five-year periods as well. Yeah, that's like the negative with it is that there's like that payment uncertainty. You just don't know what's going to happen.

Right? And then the other thing is that market risk. If like in seven years, the interest rate goes up big time, you could be screwed. Yeah. What it's really good for is like the home buyers who if you know that you're going to sell or you're going to refinance or you're going to do something within a short period of time or maybe have a new renter in or something like that. I don't know. Like within a five year period, it's a great time to lock in a very discounted rate. And I think also those who know that like income strong, they've built good wealth. They expect to make money on their money and they're expecting future income to come in. at the same level or higher, they know they'll be able to accelerate pay down, but then have a low interest rate for that period of time. And then people are just trying to get a low payment from the get-go. So those are the things to think about when you decide what structure to go with and like the best, especially in the States, is like just talk to your mortgage banker and they'll walk you through all of them. Things to know, things to know. Homeowner problems 101 right there.

He's helping us with them. Another thing he was helping us with is proving that he is an encyclopedia. I couldn't believe how well this guy, you know, I shouldn't be surprised. He's one of the best in this industry. But when he was spitting out little, like he was going on his little, you know, answering questions with his passion. And then he starts throwing out, you know, Jason all started in 1997 with the IRS code 121 and da da da da da da da and tax rates. And then in 1994, trade NAFTA, decimating cities with manufacturing hubs. In 1960, the rent freeze. And all the, all the homes went vacant. I was like, Jesus, this guy is given me through. college credits in 27 minutes. So I don't know, man. There's two takeaways there.

I want to give you two trading secrets there. Number one, if you want to be a leader in whatever field it is, you better know the history of that field and what has determined where things have been and why, because credibility is massive. So when he's talking to these billionaires or 100 millionaires, multi-millionaires, whatever it might be, these people with big power, you have to understand. What is everyone going to ask for? What's happening next? What do you think? And he says, well, I can't tell you what's going to happen next because I can't predict it. But what I can tell you is what's happened in the last 200 years. Let's go through it. So whatever industry you're in, you better know the history of it because that's going to be

credibility. Number two, he is genius. We know that. He's extremely smart. However, there's always a strategy and calculation behind those people. And that alludes to number three is I listen to a lot of his recent podcasts in preparation for this. And I will tell you in each of those podcasts, when not even asked about the topic, right? Those were. some speaking points that he stepped into. So you can tell those are speaking points that he's memorized, that he understands that the people that listen to him need to know and that he builds credibility when speaking about him. And everyone listening right now can do that too in their jobs and in their fields. Are you at all, I'm listening to this episode and

he's been on our podcast three times. He might be the only three-time guests other than Tyler Cameron. Maybe Blake Horstman. Maybe. But I'm thinking, I'm like, man, this guy's kind of a big deal. And not that you're not a big deal, or I'm definitely not a big deal. And our podcast is great, but it's not like it's like Caller Daddy, like level podcast. This guy's making time three times to come on our podcast and really talk about the same thing. Like he's talking about the real estate market and he's talking about the shows that he's doing. And he's really not going in depth about the reality piece.

He's really going in depth about this. Is it ever like Don on, like, I don't know. To me, I'm like, this is, this is a, I feel like he's a big deal and he keeps coming back and there's something that you're doing, that's really impressive. And do you guys have like a really strong relationship outside of when we're on the podcast or in a business? Do you hang out? Have you ever gone for drinks? Do you guys hit each other up? Do you small talk?

Like, I'm just, give me a BTS on that. Yeah, I think, so the first thing is not really. Like I saw him at Sir Flage just past summer. hit him up we talk for a while shoot the ship but like we're not like boys i would say um that's one and two i would say he just gets it man like i think in this space there are so many people with such large egos that they're like oh i'm only going to go to this podcast or this podcast and depending on what you're trying to achieve most of the time that's not going to be the right play because what he's trying to achieve is all different niches in different places find out

who he is and he throws a blanket on him everywhere. So you're seeing right now, he is very strategically going on the right podcast in the right niches that have the right audiences. He's collaborating with people on social media that have all different demographics and age groups. Everything from like doing, you know, some of those, you know, some of those like TikTokers who just do stunt tricks, like where they like do, they bounce eight ping pong balls and the one ball. Love those guys. He's doing stuff like that to being with like the big YouTubers. to being on certain business podcast. So my point is he gets it, right?

And we're a show that does a ton of listens every single week. And we're on social media. We're getting the most views. We're doing like five million impressions on social media week. Like that's crazy that the podcast is generating five million eyeballs through our clips on TikTok and on Instagram. So, you know, I think he just gets it. And it also has respect for us, right?

Like I listen, like with all due respect, I listen to two, three podcasts. like I said, in preparation. These people don't know how to interview them. And they ask the same fucking questions. And they don't know how to talk his language. So I think we've earned his respect. Well, it aligns a lot with what he said about selling Manhattan, how he took a risk because he did want to have a show that everyone could watch.

He could watch with your kids. They could watch with your, you know, your colleagues. He kind of took the Ted Lassow approach where like, you know, he wants everyone to be able to watch it. So him going on all these podcasts with all these different, different, you know, like you said, the TikTokers and art. audience it makes a lot of sense so clearly a smart guy he gave some unbelievable one one more thing i want to say if you have an exclusive right like you have a big announcement or you just haven't

done anything in a while and you need one big splash that's when you try and like land a collar daddy you know but when you're trying to promote something like a show that's why like in ariana grande it's not like she goes on one podcast she goes on six talk shows and six live you know night shows and podcasts and red carpets because she's got to promote wicked even the biggest of the best and the biggest spaces do it um he just gets it you know he just gets it like anyone that's out there when you're promoting something even if it's a small small startup with 10 followers today you got to find your network and make a splash like you got to get out there and do it i'm going to end with my my three zinger points let's just say things that zinged me he said them and i was like damn

this one depressed me we're all basically boring houses from the fed we're all basically boring houses from the fed We're paying the government rent disguises property taxes to borrow the land. We're paying, and then paying them to collect income, then paying them for the right to go shopping. We all work for the government. We're all here to provide tax revenue for everyone else. That was a very sombering, realistic, depressing moment. And then I did love the quote,

never interrupt your enemy when they're making mistake. I just thought that was like a good business PR type like, I'm just going to keep this in the back of my head and use this when it comes time. And then I'm going to end with how he ended with this trading secret. In the business world, the managers, all these things when you're responsible for a budget, et cetera. He learned the hard way that great people are uncomfortably expensive, but bad people cost you a fucking fortune. I loved that. It goes hand in hand with the biggest takeaway I've ever had on this podcast from a trading secret,

which is higher, slow, fire, fast. I just thought that those all go together and they're from really smart people who manage a lot of fucking people and I just loved how he kind of tied a bow on that and that was my biggest takeaway was his trading secret. Yeah, that was, I mean, incredible trading secret,

incredible guest, such a sharp, smart guy. It's funny, just even these takeaways, like after it, I just, again, this is like Ryan, I know how busy you are. I can't tell you how much it means that you're giving us this time. So thank you. because every time he comes on this podcast, I learn something new.

And do we talk about similar things on this podcast? Sure, but we talk about them in times of increments that are like a year later. And the speed at which this man changes his professional life year over year, it's crazy. Fun to watch, fun to be part of, definitely inspires and motivates me. So I hope everyone enjoyed this episode. I hope everyone enjoyed the recap, a little personal update. And of course, a little professional breakdown of the one and only Ryan Sirhant. David, anything before a wrap?

I got a baby crying upstairs. The toddlers passes bedtime. I got to go. We got a run. It was great seeing your face again. I love it. We got two dogs in this household and two babies and David. It's a beautiful thing.

Guys, give us five stars. Let us know what you're looking forward to. And thank you for tuning into another episode of Trig Secrets. One, you can't afford to miss. Making that money, money, money. Making that money, money. Living that dream. Making that money, money.

pay on me making that money living that dream