TRASHFUTURE - Brexit Dragon Energy feat. Tom Kibasi

Episode Date: November 28, 2018

You may have heard about this thing called Brexit. Apparently, it means Brexit. And on this week’s Trashfuture, Riley (@raaleh) and Hussein (@HKesvani) spoke with Institute for Public Policy Researc...h (@IPPR) director Tom Kibasi (@TomKibasi) about the real victim of Brexit: political metaphor. Then we talk about the deal itself, Labour's Brexit strategy, and debunk the myth that "Labour could be 20 points ahead under a different leader." We also talk about Yu-Gi-Oh. Yes, we brought on one of Britain’s most influential left economics and policy voices in order to talk about Yu-Gi-Oh. Above all else, we are on-brand. This is going to be our first and only Brexit episode. If you want to hear us talk about Brexit and not dumb bullshit, skip to five or so minutes in. Please bear in mind that your favourite lads have a Patreon now. You too can support us here: https://www.patreon.com/trashfuture/overview Also: you can commodify your dissent with a t-shirt from http://www.lilcomrade.com/. Get whichever slogan you want, but get the damn shirts!

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 What do you mean who cares we have I've told everyone in the world we're gonna fight yeah and we'll fight cuz I'm not scared of you mate you're not gonna just sit here and bully me and my mate I'm not trying to bully you we agreed well yeah all right it's an agreement mate and I will fight us I'm not scared of you let's have that now right I'm not fucking scared you just get out and just do listen give me your give me your phone cuz I don't trust either you fucking worms give me your phone you're gonna record this as your phone yes you can't run off give me your phone listen listen listen listen let me tell the camera so
Starting point is 00:00:39 listen listen stay there no kicks no knees boxing only punches only punches first one to quit loses all right let's go all right let me take my jacket off way away first one the first one to quit loses stay there stay there stay there first one to quit loses all right my watch hold my watch hold my watch hello and welcome back to your free TF free TF free TF today in a brand new configuration never before seen I Riley am here with Hussein on the on the phone from New York yes hello upstate New York nothing's happening like I'm literally in a place when nothing happens so no updates today Hussein calling in from
Starting point is 00:01:38 the Twin Peaks town and we also we also have Tom Kavasi director of the IPPR in studio with us today Tom how you doing I'm good how are you I I'm very well I'm very well and we are here to ask this this this this prominent mind in left policymaking exactly what the deal is with that Yu-Gi-Oh! dream and that has a dragon for a day okay okay I like to consider myself as a expert in Japanese anime yeah so so obviously I have a strong point of view on this okay so all right so I don't know how much context I have to give because I feel like this is only a joke that's really suited for like the super TF fans like the ones who
Starting point is 00:02:20 keep going on dating apps and asking women whether they've been on trash future or like whether they've lived just you and Riley basically I want to say first of all thank you and also and also just stop like it doesn't work right there's no there's no universe where like this will get you late trust you saying he's trying no real world no Digimon world no Yu-Gi-Oh! world and speaking of which then we have to ask a self-question does Necro the shadow lord have a dragon for a dick so this story begins when so I'm so I'm in this very remote part of America at the moment where like I'm here to finish
Starting point is 00:03:06 writing my book and I have no choice but to do it because there's literally nothing else to do so as obviously as you'd expect I'm kind of procrastinating as much as I can online and I found this I found this clip on YouTube of the popular anime series Yu-Gi-Oh! where like the last episode of this the sixth season which is only really aired in Japan because like it basically stopped airing in the West in like you know the West when everyone became gamers and in this particular episode all the heroes have to face off against like the final you know the final boss right you know how like anime works the final boss is a
Starting point is 00:03:47 guy called Necro the shadow lord he's like the lord of the shadow realm and when he is unleashed from this like tomb he's this giant swole demon who has a dragon dick and it's yo I know what this is I know what this is this is just Ben Garrison drawing Donald Trump the final form yes yes yes this is this is effectively what Ben Garrison cartoon would be once he like completely loses it so like the funniest thing about this image we posted it on Twitter like several times is that like the actual shadow lord he has this like really demonic face he's gonna like fuck some shit up he's just lifted some weights you
Starting point is 00:04:22 know he you know he's he hasn't masturbated for like five years he's fucking tanked but dragon that he's like supposedly sitting on this looks exhausted it looks exasperated like Necro has just been on like a month-long wank fest and he's still going he's still going so he's I don't know if he's he's he might be Andrew Tate I'm sure this is what I imagine Andrew Tate thinks he looks like when he's challenging random people on Twitter to a fight I don't know if we're gonna talk about the Andrew Tate stuff but like I saw it I saw it late last night over here and I imagine it must been
Starting point is 00:05:03 quite early in the morning but like it was the funniest thing that I've seen because like every time you look at it it gets more funny right like oh absolutely it's he starts off the video by saying but oh yeah I've been like jumped on and like Romania I've been like knives are pulled on me guns have been pulled on me but they've always been so much more fun in London than London because I'm really bored here and everyone's doing cocaine and it turns out that he's in some random place and like Hemel Hempstead no this is what he's doing is he's acting out a 2018 version of Finnegan's Wake
Starting point is 00:05:36 essentially that's what this man is doing Andrew Tate's life is cyclical to me it just to me it just felt like as I grew up in a place that was like Hemel Hempstead it was like this one of these really boring places which was sort of like bordered London but wasn't quite there you know it felt as if like it was kind of just this very boring English suburban town where like there were two clubs and you can imagine how the clubs were right they just played like you know 90s and early 2000s like you know disco mixed of grime and everyone did cocaine or like they were doing like you know helium balloons and
Starting point is 00:06:09 stuff and like NOS gas and helium balloons because I think nothing else to do right like it's too expensive to go to London but like you just can't be fucked doing anything else and this is kind of what makes these towns like work right you know you don't was that put as bar if you want to go for a mad night out like you don't go to Hemel Hempstead it's like saying I want to go to a mad night yeah you go to Transnestria yeah you got a tiraspole where it's really happening having been to Tiraspole I can tell you it's mad it's like it's like going for a mad night out in New York and then ending up in
Starting point is 00:06:40 Albany so we're actually we're actually here to ask the real questions about British politics we are here to tackle the next tough question why do liberals love Harry Potter so fucking much why can't they read another book it's got to be said this is about magical thinking isn't it yeah I mean the magical thinking is a delight and an indulgence if you feel like you have power and you can just wave a wand and the world will change to how it's to make it how you want it to be that's pretty attractive yeah and I think it's I think it's especially attractive to liberals because it allows them to have a
Starting point is 00:07:18 demonstrable effect on the real world without having to sacrifice anything organized in any way or you know actually act it's it's basically just a way that like makes your wishes become reality I think I think you say liberals but I think actually you mean elites yeah because I think there's something particularly elite about isn't there there's something about saying well I'm used to being in such a position of power that when I snap my fingers shit happens and that's kind of the Harry Potter story wasn't the Harry Potter Harry Potter universe is like very like uniform and organized right like the whole thing is
Starting point is 00:07:51 like based on this idea that you have this magical world which is sort of built on like precarious finance where like every when everything revolves around these like four schools and like you know you know that's how the system works right we don't really we actually don't really know much I've only seen like the films I haven't I've read a few of the books like when I was younger but we don't really know that much about the Harry Potter universe right except but it's very small most of it's filled with like posh you know grammar school private school kids there's like this one little town which has a few bars it
Starting point is 00:08:23 sounds exactly like Albany in some respects right and then like in the final movie like there's this kind of big showdown with like Voldemort and you know all the all the evil people right and the strange thing was was that like in Harry Potter there is like a form of organization right like at some point Harry and a few of the other kind of senior students are like okay like the basing isn't going to work we're not going to be able to like change the system we have to like adopt some form of like defensive violence I don't know if I'm like I don't know if this is the right film I'm talking about
Starting point is 00:08:54 or whether I'm just thinking about Crank which is like where a lot of our like movie conversations end up going anyway it always ends up in Crank the greatest movie ever made I vaguely remember that like they had you know they had to like do at least some form of like organizing and like offensive protests and stuff like that so even like even if you take the Harry Potter analogy like they're only taking very selective and twee bits from it right well instead of battling evil wizards what I've noticed a lot of like because I'm usually middle-class usually liberals just endlessly marching to
Starting point is 00:09:28 stop Brexit there's marching and marching and marching and all they do and they started just by sort of asking those in power to intercede on their behalf because they just expect people to do that and now I think they're I think they've become a cargo cult because I'll say like the you know a little peek behind the curtain the three of us have been very fascinated by some of the the protest actions against brexit that have been happening today my personal favorite is the guy who spent like probably 20 pounds getting the entire brexit deal printed out on paper so he could burn it with a flamethrower in front of parlor during a wind during a windy day as well what the fuck well I liked him but I actually like the guy next to him who'd got a
Starting point is 00:10:10 massive sort of papier-mache version of the deal and then was taking a sledgehammer to it and that kind of neatly sums it up doesn't it right you've got something you don't like so you attack the symbols in fact you make it into a big fucking symbol by printing it out in huge form and then you take sledgehammer to paper which kind of sums up pretty much the strategy of of hard remainers right it kind of encapsulates it quite quite poetically oh saying what was your favorite one my favorite one was a trampoline guy so this is the first thing I woke up to this morning right the first tweet that I woke up to this morning was a guy wearing like a you know wearing a scarf like wearing a backpack and bouncing on a trampoline which said stop and he
Starting point is 00:10:53 goes and he just like randomly just says like somewhere between like bollocks to brexit and like he's just doing it on his own right and it's kind of like this very I don't know like it feels like something that will eventually end up in an Adam Curtis documentary uh before like cuts back to like 1980s Afghanistan um it was just like yeah this really bizarre thing that really captures a lot of what Tom was saying which is you know that they you know everything is to kind of like attack the aesthetic symbols without you know much like politics right um it goes back to what we've spoken about in previous episodes where you have a certain you know you have this class of people who just like want to go back to how things were and it kind of feeds into this culture which
Starting point is 00:11:37 is shape which is kind of occupied by both really hard brexitas and the really hard remainers which was that we're looking we know you know we're pining for this nostalgia this beautiful time except in the remainers case like that beautiful time was when like Hugh Grant was you know doing films and uh love actually was like politics and stuff like that right uh i think that's exactly true i think you know it's it's somewhere between for me anyway it's somewhere between a cargo cult and a um like like a christian priest or preacher in florida to like burning a bunch of karans like obviously that's more of a hate crime but it's like i'm i'm made infuriated by this thing i'm powerless to do anything about and so i'm just going to demolish all of its symbols
Starting point is 00:12:24 as a kind of way to get out my outrage and expect that to be politically effective it's just it's another version of what i call the politics of setting yourself on fire and dragging yourself kicking and screaming into hell it was just this it was just like it felt like this really weird moment because it's like this deal like no one likes the talk the conservative deal right as far as i'm as far as i'm aware like everyone like for the most part all the kind of really loud people are against it and even on one of the tweets it was like yeah you've got like these anti anti like you know these hard practices who are anti the deal who are doing these really cringewerby protests the men you've also got these remainers who are doing all these cringewerby protests
Starting point is 00:13:03 and it sort of feels as if like it's vacuous because there isn't even any kind of opposition anymore it's just like protesting for the sake of protesting did you know what you know i mean like i guess like even just being out of the uk it's rage it's just right yeah it's but it's kind of this weird it's like this sort of like weird rage of the sake of rage right um it's like rage without kind of like well what are we actually arguing as a better alternative and i think that's actually what we're what we're going to get into because we are here today now that we've exhausted all of our material on demons with dragon dicks and and harry potter i think that's actually that's a good transition into the brexit stuff realistically because it is all i can say
Starting point is 00:13:45 dragon dick would have definitely burned the deal like the deal prints out dragon dick 4 p.m no so uh so i think that a lot of these these protests are just sort of magical thinking against brexit it is also like the death of metaphor at this point everything's literal but let's let's let's rewind a little bit so as we often say on this show 40 of our audience is american and so probably have only a passing knowledge of what brexit is so first tom can you like encapsulate this sort of what's going on and then we'll sort of move into why we're finally talking about it yeah sure so why is brexit bad if you if you look at this it's we spent the last 40 years integrating ourselves into a single european economy right that's been the direction
Starting point is 00:14:30 of travel for 40 years so the best analogy is to say imagine that you were the united states and you were trying to pull california out of the us if you tried to do that it would be incredibly complicated and people say well how would you do that right we're a single economy yes there are different things in the states but hey this is an economy as a whole so the core reason that it's bad is precisely because we spent so long integrating ourselves and therefore brexit account the european union accounts for nearly half of our foreign trade um but it goes beyond that right it's not just the economics of it it's also about um amplifying british power and influence around the world by belonging to the world's most powerful and successful trading bloc uh the common foreign
Starting point is 00:15:15 and security policy uh that means both foreign affairs but also basic domestic security right so european arrest warrants and all other sort of mechanisms as well and fundamentally if you think that the challenges that we face in the 25 21st century are um more global than they are local then it makes sense to try and solve them together so whether it's climate change or the rising power of global corporations there is a logic to saying well the more that you can cooperate with your friends and neighbors the more successful you'll be in the world so that's the core reason that that brexit seems like a pretty bad idea i think i think part of the problem in all of this is it's a sort of misfiring in the sense that the problems that people observe and think are to do with brexit
Starting point is 00:16:01 are actually problems that are domestically created so a lot of the issues that people are unhappy about actually have sod all to do with the european union um they are the choices that have been made in west minster not choices that have been made in brussels and for 40 years british politicians have played a game and you can see this in the states as well right so politicians say everything good is something that they did at home and everything bad comes from washington well our polling politicians have done exactly the same thing they've said all good things have come from west minster and all bad things have come from brussels and the truth is more complicated than that and actually most of the problems and the core reasons that people are unhappy
Starting point is 00:16:37 have much less to do with the european union and much more to do with choices made at home i mean crudely i think this is a bit of blowback for never coming to terms with the end of the british empire on a kind of cultural side uh and therefore being unwilling and unable to cooperate with other countries and i think the other side of this is the blowback um from the sort of vicious deindustrialization uh that took place under thatcher and if you have so many communities kept behind it's not surprising that they reach a point um where where they say no more and the target has been the eu but i think that the right target there people are right to be angry about a lot of this stuff um but the right the right target is in west minster and not in brussels
Starting point is 00:17:17 so i think one thing i find sort of very sort of interesting about this is you can you can i think see quite a bit of the sort of almost baseless sort of extreme right wing roots of this in that like a lot of the criticism of the brexit deal may has been able to negotiate which we'll get on too soon from people like david vance seems to just be that what they actually want is they want may to send a team of like s as soldiers to like faster open to brussels and just perforate the entire european commission like they seem to just want they have this lust for like conflict almost where the idea of they want to send the gun boots right they want to shell the continent precisely that's kind of the kind of point that they would like to get to right it's
Starting point is 00:17:56 not just they don't like the eu it's something much more visceral than that yeah and i think it's about this sense of a loss of status in the world that in their mental schema for how the world works you know britain is the nation on top you know the second world war meant that we had to share that spot with the americans and that anything that keeps us from being the top nation um is somehow a problem and they see the european union as a means for keeping britain down rather than amplifying us up and it's just a failure to engage with the real state of the world as it is today and the real reality which is that britain is a mid-sized european economy it's important and influential in the world but not in the way that it once was and that to be successful in the
Starting point is 00:18:38 21st century we need to cooperate with our friends and neighbors and so what's happened is over the last sort of two a couple years ago basically after britain left the european union after it triggered article 50 which again for americans is the sort of begins the withdrawal process we have had this sort of almost like a cottage industry of speculating and protesting and trying to read tea leaves and like you know getting the romaniacs logo tattooed on your forehead or whatever either in support of or in protest of brexit it has been the issue in your in british politics that has broken everyone's brain because it has revealed this these fundamental contradictions and you know incidentally like especially i talk about this in kami book clubs i talk about the
Starting point is 00:19:23 ways that sort of capitalism sustains itself by either moving its contradictions ahead into the future as with climate change or it moves them sort of geographically far away as with sort of like say i'm getting cheap labor abroad or what have you and then keeping it out with borders or it moves them down the class structure as it might with so over policing minority neighborhoods in this case britain the british right has tried to move the contradictions up to a more powerful structure which has just bounced the contradictions right back down at it which is why it is reached this impasse but we've finally negotiated a withdrawal agreement from the european union i don't fully understand it tom yeah so so the important is you hear a lot being said about the
Starting point is 00:20:06 deal right and we've got to be be clear what i saw someone take a sledgehammer to it yes exactly um so this is what's what's quite striking about it you need to look back at the original agreement in the first european summit that took place after the referendum vote and what they said at that that summit was was broadly three things firstly no negotiation without before article 15 notification so they simply wouldn't talk until the uk had notified on article 50 second thing is a common europe unified european approach so british diplomats were sent off to all different european capitals to try and sort of understand what people's priorities and different desires were in a kind of attempt to divide and conquer and all the eu 27 stood firm
Starting point is 00:20:56 and basically sent them back and said nope we don't negotiate with you we negotiate through barnier and the european commission and the third thing and this is the really important thing was that there would be no discussion about the future trading relationship until a withdrawal agreement was concluded so the withdrawal agreement gets us out of the european union but the negotiations on the future partnership won't commence in substance until we've actually left and that's really important so the withdrawal agreement all it does it's the legal text it takes us out and it then puts us into this incredibly vulnerable position so the political declaration is a statement of intent right but it has no legal force and so the withdrawal agreement
Starting point is 00:21:40 gets us out the door and then once we're out the door and we have no ability to change our mind we have no negotiating leverage we've got the clock ticking on a 21 month transition at that point we get to go and negotiate with the eu 27 from a point of real vulnerability and weakness having given up all of our negotiating leverage so in a way the withdrawal agreement is a is a reasonable agreement on just getting out the problem with it is that fundamentally it puts us into this incredibly weak position and then there are other reasons to object to it there are multiple different reasons so for example the rules on state aid are much tougher than the rules on workers rights or environmental protections then there are various other other issues with it
Starting point is 00:22:28 but that core strategic issue is is the biggest failure in british statecraft in half a century to accept that you would be put into purgatory and then asked to negotiate for half your trade yeah but again it's because a lot of people were very angry with the polish no i'm kidding i'm kidding i think yeah i think a lot of people are very angry with the status core in their lives and part of that was about levels of immigration no doubt but fundamentally what were the drivers of high level of high levels of immigration well part of it was european union rules but even then right we had more immigration coming in from non-european countries than from european countries myself right there we are right they're really angry at
Starting point is 00:23:10 you right this guy it's about you coming into our country and trying to change our politics yeah but what i think they were what i think underlies that was that why was immigration immigration level so high because we have an economic model that is based on low wage low productivity and therefore needs high levels of immigration in order to get low wage low productivity workers into the into the labor market i think that's that's that that does make what make quite a bit of sense i think when i when i sort of said facetiously that sort of people were as angry at the polish i think really what it is is that is it has become this totemic issue that britain is no longer what it was in this even in the 70s even though the 70s were
Starting point is 00:23:53 you know by all accounts not great um it seems like and this is true i've noticed this with the sort of with wow people want to leave the european union like we want to go back to you know when we had a manufacturing industry want to go back to when you know there were sunday trading laws and everyone knew each other and you as you see their list of demands it sort of gets more and more like oh you just want to go live in a carry-on film um i think that's unfair so i think if you so we've done some some research on on what do people expect right so because this is an agenda of the right there are a lot of people on the right who see brexit as the opportunity to become hugely deregulated to take our lax labor standards and make them even weaker
Starting point is 00:24:35 to lower taxes cut back public services even further and become a kind of low tax haven just off the european mainland if you look at what the public want and particularly what leave voters wanted this was not a vote for deregulation this was a vote for reregulation the levels of support for european derived regulation are absolutely enormous what the public thought that they were doing was voting to get more protection from globalization not less so the issue is that the eu has been seen as an instrument for globalization and for amplifying the forces of of globalization onto the british economy rather than a safe harbor from it now the reality is that that's actually a choice to do with the uh decisions made in in west minster not decisions driven by
Starting point is 00:25:26 brussels and the way that you know that is you go and visit finland or demark or germany and see the completely different approach that they've taken there and so this is um this is sort of moving on a little bit to sort of how sort of they feel like we have looked at this problem domestically um like labor has what has labor's sort of brexit policy been sort of since day one what is their strategy being i mean i mean labor has had as many strategies as there are labor mps in some ways so i i don't think that's true actually i think labor's had a fairly consistent strategy i think what what you hear i'm too i think maybe i'm just too online and follow chris leslie too much yeah but i think but i think what people conflate is they say well i don't like
Starting point is 00:26:08 what labor's doing on brexit and therefore it has no strategy because it's not the strategy that i think they should have but that is not the same thing as having no strategy strategy been pretty consistent and pretty clear i think actually from early on i think if you look at the now in hindsight and you look back to the referendum campaign they're all these sort of howls of outrage that jeremy corbin didn't express greater levels of enthusiasm for the eu and said it was you know maybe a seven out of ten that he'd give it actually looking back had you had a more reasonable remain campaign that wasn't howling how the you know sky was going to fall in but made a more reasoned argument and said like corbin said you know remain and reform the european union is not
Starting point is 00:26:51 perfect but nothing's perfect and actually got a better chance of changing it and improving it and making it work for people from the inside than from the outside then actually maybe that campaign might have been more successful so i think looking back a lot of people say where it's somehow corbin's fault that the referendum was lost well actually if you look at the message that corbin was delivering in a largely eurosceptic country because i think actually that the levels of love for the european union i don't think they are high right the country is divided remain versus leave and there are a bunch of hard remainers but i still think they represent very much the minority absolutely and a message that was much more circumspect and more cautious
Starting point is 00:27:30 might have actually been more successful it's like it's like a very complicated game of the very ancient art of dual monsters aka the the game in yugioh where you know you go you go sorry i'm sorry you're obsessed you are obsessed is it i i've been in a room this is what happens if you lock a man in a cupboard in albany yes yes this is a logan paul social experiment have you showered recently i have so i actually like have you ever seen the film old boy right i have okay okay so like so old boy is very much the same theme i like a guy gets like shoved into a room for a very long time and he is not sure why but the room is really nice so he gets like really good food he has like shower his soaps are replaced regularly um he has
Starting point is 00:28:16 his big idea a hotel this is gonna say this is a hotel yeah i mean this is what i mean this is basically like you know outside of like the fellowship season this is this place is used as a hotel um it's just a very it's a very weird and strange experience because like last week i was in new york city where there were like giant rats and like guys who were just like shouting things at me for like no reason um and now it's just like dear but stare at you at night and stuff it's very weird no i know where you're living you're living in um barton think you're living barton think world i'm gonna pretend i know what that is like we should go to new ports new ports is lovely um it's near there i think i get some baby butter uh anyway i don't i don't
Starting point is 00:28:54 want to i don't i don't want to derail the conversation so please continue oh oh anyway here's my yugioh opinion what so i need to derail your conversation oh my god this is bet honestly isolation hussein is actually better than ramadan hussein in terms of weirdness i just say that like being outside of the uk like i wasn't really paying attention to much news like while i was there anyway because i think i feel like everyone who works in this kind of particularly strange spaces their their brain has just been made into mush but you learn it more like when you're outside of the country and number one people like the main question people ask you is like hey what's happening in britain like everyone's is going
Starting point is 00:29:34 insane um and then on the other hand like you actually not knowing what's going on and you not you're not really having an explanation so all i could say was oh yeah like they have some sort of deal but i'm not really sure what the deal means all i know is that everyone's mad about it but everyone's been mad since like two years ago well there was something very very strange that happened right which is they dumped 585 pages on like a saturday night right agreement it was on a on a wednesday evening right about eight eight p.m with no presentation none of the major arguments and so uh they lost the framing of was this good or bad and now the prime minister is going around trying to say this is a great deal and it's fantastic and it's just not taken
Starting point is 00:30:17 seriously because actually most people have made their minds up by this point and they're saying this is a bad deal and doesn't serve the uk's the uk's interests and i think the core problem for her is that for remainers no deal is ever going to be as good as the deal that we already have yeah and for levers uh any deal um is never going to satisfy their their sort of destructive impulse and their allergy towards anything european and so i think she's just classically fallen between two stalls but she also comprehensively failed to make the argument i mean who just dumps it out there without going and saying well these are the key points and this is you know what this is what's good and this is you know where we've compromised but overall blah blah blah
Starting point is 00:30:59 there was just none of that it was completely surreal as a political moment i mean even trash future does previews of shows before we put them out we just don't we don't throw we don't throw them out there we even even we're not that destructive unless we're wearing joker makeup in which case in which case we are in which case we are you know it would have been so much better you know hit tereza may could have sold this deal to both remainers and levers on trash if for the levers she had made a facebook meme about how the europeans were fake people but um sometimes you got to give to get you got to spend money to make money and it was just like an instagram inspirational like rise and grind thing and then she could have satisfied the remainers
Starting point is 00:31:37 if she did like a 400 tweet thread about game theory and sold the deal that way realistically i think presentation is the key here yeah but giving no narrative right i mean that was astonishing just absolutely astonishing and so other people other organizations set the narrative yeah um so i the other thing is is that uh a lot of the levers say that sort of once we leave we'll be able to strike free trade deals including with the us and that's generally thought of to be awesome because of because we're going to be able to get chlorine washed chicken in a giant can and we're going to get to pay for the nhs i mean honestly i find this free trade stuff such a nonsense it's just but it's it's sadly utterly pathetic because it starts with
Starting point is 00:32:22 this like a narrative of victimhood right the starting point is somehow we've been kept down and if we just got these great trade deals would be rich and prosperous and free all at the same time and the reality is that the problems in the British economy are really deep-seated the problem is not that we don't have good enough trade deals the problem is that we don't have enough to sell to the rest of the world so what exactly is it that we're going to sell to australia and and and new zealand right i mean this is this is just the belies the total nonsense of this theory and if you look at trade actually is one of the gravity model of trade which is basically um the bigger of the economy and the closer it is the more trade that will happen between
Starting point is 00:33:00 two entities is probably the most uh empirically proven thing that exists in economics so if you have to in order to believe this nonsense you basically have to ignore all of the evidence that exists in the entire discipline of economics so this whole free trade thing is just it's it's quite sad right i mean what it speaks to is people who have lost hope and they want this idea that somehow their circumstances can be fixed and i think one of the one of the issues also with this is that it we're solving we are sort of nuking ourselves to solve a non problem that is the solution to which is basically to make us more like the united states presumably right because we'd have to if we wanted free trade deal with the united states then it's it's it's written quite
Starting point is 00:33:48 often that might involve free trade and services which might include stuff like allowing american health insurers in or relaxing food standards in this manner who among us does not want to eat crackers which tastes very synthetic and then you find out there's 35 grams of sugar in them which has really just been yeah i'm not 35 grams of corn syrup let's be clear yeah which is like because it's substance because of this has really been like my experience with america like i found it very difficult to find fruit um it is extremely hard to find like water in most places uh but you can get soda anywhere right um yeah you can get to sony anyway you can get to sony anyway yes and it's just like even like tap water tastes really weird um i had a bodega sandwich last week a chicken
Starting point is 00:34:33 bodega sandwich and you can definitely taste like how weirdly synthetic battle battle is and i and i remember like just you know being sick for next morning from my weird bodega sandwich and thinking wow brexit really does mean brexit well but the the deeper thing that is is here right is that most trade deals these days focus much less on tariff barriers and much more on non-tariff barriers so about whether you've got the same regulatory regime so the idea that you would end up aligning your regulations to anything but the single market when the single market accounts for nearly half your trade is completely ludicrous and to a certain extent right the the europeans have always known through this this negotiation that whatever britain ends up doing and whatever deal is struck
Starting point is 00:35:21 the basic economic realities that you know the rest of the european continent is 35 miles off the coast of kent means that british firms will end up aligning themselves to european regulations in order to sell to the european market so it's just it's it's frankly it's a total nonsense and the idea that somehow britain is a country of 65 million people is going to be able to strike a fantastic trade deal with all these other economies around the world just isn't true i mean you look at the the facts you can make some comparisons you look at the trade deal with south korea um it's really striking the eu has a very similar trade deal with south korea as australia has the eu deal takes away most of the barriers within i think something like seven years
Starting point is 00:36:06 and the australian deal does pretty much the same thing over 25 years because in the end scale trump's agility in trade negotiations what i think we're forgetting though is that of course once once we begin to negotiate a trade deal with united states then we get to make all of britain into a 40 million hole trump golf course it's going to be fantastic yeah that now that's what i now that because that's thing all of these breaks all like a lot of the hard right brexitiers would be thrilled to live in like the caddy shack of donald trump's golf course because then they get to be aligned with the man who's protecting the west so i think it's it's partly that but i think actually for a lot of these hard brexitiers i think you can't you can't try and understand
Starting point is 00:36:52 this as a project from a kind of intellectual ideological point of view i think this is principally a psychological condition for the for the leaders of the leave campaign i don't think that's true for ordinary leave voters but i think for the people who are promoting this the idea at the top i think that it's a sort of desperate and pathetic search for an account of heroism in their own lives right they look to their fathers who fought in the second world war and they kind of then say to themselves war how do i have an account of being a hero in my own life and it's battling this great european enemy and that's why all the imagery is about war and conflict because primarily what i think is driving you know the sort of jacob reese mogs of the world
Starting point is 00:37:33 and Nigel Farage of the world i think frankly they're being driven by psychological factors not really by political ideological or economic factors. Thanatos baby we all got the death drive yeah this is why i say the the the politics are a moment is summed up with the idea of setting yourself on fire and dragging yourself to hell because they're bored. Yeah but it's more pathetic than that it's not just about being bored right it's this idea that they somehow want to live up to the expectations of their fathers right in dunkism the great example in some way i feel like it's when i say bored i mean it's almost like a spiritual ennui where they've looked they have looked around at our and that's the thing this is one of the roots of
Starting point is 00:38:13 fascism like it's i'm is that fascism does have in its way a kind of critique of the emptiness of modern life because it's like you look around and say is this all there is and the difference is when fascists ask themselves that question or even just reactionaries ask themselves that question they say this this is all there is and so i'm going to create my own destiny by being as this great warrior i i'm going to live out i i've i've looked into the predator mangé and i've decided that i have this death drive that i have to let out yeah and it's that there is a reason that it is it is um a particular group of uh older men who are doing it right and it's it's men who have tried to attain power and not succeeded and i think that tells you a lot
Starting point is 00:38:56 about uh brexit as a as a move the leadership of the brexit movement because i don't think that's true of a lot of lead voters who i think we're voting for something that they think is is very different from what what the people at the top who have been driving this have had in mind so in fact just sort of coming back around to what we were what we were mentioning earlier was labor strategy again i was being facetious when i was saying there are as many strategies as mp's largely just to make fun of the chris leslie's of the world but you and i have talked about this in the past that the labor strategy was relatively was not just relatively it was coherent from the beginning but the hard remainers um who also equally live in a fantasy world it's just they
Starting point is 00:39:34 want to go back to 2013 not 1973 or 2006 yeah they're about yeah yeah yeah because um it's pre-financial crisis right the world is the world is precreate yeah and so labor strategy this is as we've discussed before has basically been to allow the tories to tear themselves to shreds more or less so i think i think that's part of it but i think the other part of it is is firstly i think you know they are have actually been sincere when they've said they respect the referendum result and that's because if you can be as pro european as you like right but the first value that you would have is to be a democrat and if you have a plebiscitary moment in politics you can't just say well you gave an answer we don't like and therefore we're going to ignore it so
Starting point is 00:40:16 i think they was actually sincere when it said accepts the result uh of the referendum and respects it i think the next thing then was to say well okay well what's the job of the opposition well they don't have the civil service they don't have all the resources they're not in the room for the negotiations and therefore they say their job is to hold the government to account and that makes sense why would they want to run as a political party why would they want to run against 52% of the population i mean that is a completely ludicrous strategy for a political party to say well our stance is going to be to run against 52% of the population so instead they said no no our job as the official opposition is to hold the government to account and i think what you see
Starting point is 00:40:58 there is is a two two dimensions to that one is setting tests based on what the government itself has said so there's a lot of mocking of the six tests and they say well so what's the most important of the six tests so the six tests get a lot of attention particularly the one that says uh the exact same benefits of the single market and the important thing there is that that phrase was used by david davis in the house of commons as brexit secretary giving a commitment that the deal the government would negotiate would deliver the exact same benefits and when labor put out its six tests you got to remember that the prime minister said absolutely accept these six tests and we will meet them right that was the response so the first thing
Starting point is 00:41:44 was holding the government to a high standard on what a good deal would look like the second thing was labor saying okay well what would labor's position be now everyone says though labor doesn't have a position which i find honestly baffling in the labor has very clearly uh in i think february of this year said that it would support a new comprehensive and permanent customs union so that's the first part so on the customs units position very very clear uh in which labor would secure a british say there are a dozen customs unions around the world in all of those customs union with perhaps the exception of the turkey u customs union uh the countries within them have a say so perfectly reasonable negotiating objective and the second thing they've said is a strong single
Starting point is 00:42:30 market deal based on shared institutions in a new institutional framework right which is basically saying a similar kind of relationship to norway but one that is bespoke to britain and reflects britain's priorities more accurately and reflects the fact that norway is a small economy and britain is still the world's i think sixth sixth largest economy so actually labor has a pretty clear position it's just the reason that everyone says oh labor doesn't have a position what they mean is i wish labor had a position of hard remain since it doesn't i'm going to say that they have no position it's just total total nonsense so the position of hard remain uh the psychology of it is one of the most interesting in british politics i think like i'm fascinated by sort of what's
Starting point is 00:43:13 going on in these people's brains i don't think it's that hard to understand right i mean these people have had the narrative of their that there is a gap between the lives they expect to lead and the lives that they are now leading and that is the core issue and for a lot of these hard remainers that takes on two dimensions one is about the relationship of the european union and their sense of britain status in the world and therefore their own status and the other dimension is their own particular position of power and influence within uh the uk labor party and so what you're seeing is the dissonance that is there between the lives they expected to lead you know in the eu being a powerful and high status country and uh in a powerful influential
Starting point is 00:43:54 position within the labor party since they don't have those two things that is why they have completely lost their mind it's also because they're like furries we just like a fandom right i mean i think a fandom actually is sort of one of the again one of the good ways to describe yeah so i disagree someone like jolly and mom for example i disagree because i don't think it's a fandom for the i don't think what is motivating a lot of these people is a real affection for the european union i think what is motivating these people is antipathy towards jeremy corbin as leader of the labor party and the way that you know that is that the most prominent of the campaign as chucker umana you know he had an article i think in uh not that long after referendum
Starting point is 00:44:34 saying under no circumstances should there be a second referendum and then the following year he wrote articles saying that it's absolutely vital that free movement ends and in fact you also see a lot of them uh the what a lot of them who are basically have been spent the last several years saying it was advisory we should cancel brexit we shouldn't listen russia was involved leave overspend i stub my toe my stomach hurts etc etc a lot of the some of them are now saying act and these are people like john rentool or jolly and mom are now saying no we must take the deal we have to take this deal because my because if we don't take this deal then britain will be done basically yeah and it's a political hoax the idea that the alternative is no deal is completely
Starting point is 00:45:14 ridiculous and then i think if you then look at where labor strategy the logical conclusion of labor strategy is to say well having labor having set a set of tests to hold the government to account on their own promises and labor having set out a perspective on what a good deal looks like they've then used that yardstick to judge the government's deal they found that it falls short very substantially because of course it it does because in the end it has been a negotiation between different parts of the conservative party and what they have delivered is the hardest possible brexit that doesn't wreck the good friday agreement right that's what the withdrawal agreement and political declaration actually deliver and labor has said well this isn't good
Starting point is 00:45:55 enough it doesn't meet the tests it doesn't match what our perspective on what a good deal looks like and so the labor party has then gone on to say well as a result there's no way they can possibly support it so why i don't understand why anyone is surprised by that so i mean thinking about this then just a little further i'd like to just because because this is probably going to come out on tuesday i'd like to avoid making any hard predictions but what's the parliamentary arithmetic looking like for this deal so it seems at this stage almost inconceivable that this deal gets through the house of commons and the reason for that is that right now the dup are not supporting it so that's 10 votes the lib dems 10 out of 12 of their mps have said that they definitely won't
Starting point is 00:46:43 support it quite how the other two can support the government on on this but i guess it's a kind of very lib dem thing to take your principal commitment and then trash it i mean it's a kind of fine political tradition of the liberal democrats to do that uh you've got the smp who have said very clearly that they can't support it and i think for the vast majority of labor mps will not be able to vote for it i think a small number will vote in favor no i even kate even kate hoey has said that she can't because of what happens with northern ireland oh right yeah because what specifically if i'm wrong what happens in northern ireland is that this deal basically just sort of calves northern ireland off of the uk a little bit and and sort of says you stay in
Starting point is 00:47:23 the customs union with ireland correct well what what the what the withdrawal agreement has is the backstop basically says under all scenarios uh northern ireland will remain aligned in terms of its regulations to the single market and within a customs union and if the brex tears deliver some magical drone based solution maybe that's not true but in a world that isn't run by harry potter basically northern ireland stays in the single market and customs union so understandably northern ireish businesses have come out strongly for the deal because of course they would because they would be the most advantage part of the uk uh in terms of a destination for investment because they have a hard guarantee that under all circumstances they basically
Starting point is 00:48:08 stay in the single market in the customs union um and so they've come out very strongly for it but the natural consequence for that is that if the rest of the uk is a great britain uh then wants to go and strike these trade deals then there has to be a border um in the ireish sea and understandably if you're the dup and you care about the union um clearly this is not in your interest the dup cannot support it kate hoey is originally northern ireish very close to arlene foster and has has clearly said that she won't support it the other thing is that kate hoey takes her whip from the uh european research group led by jake bruce morgan they're not supporting it so it's pretty clear even kate hoey would vote against it so i think the number of labour
Starting point is 00:48:49 mps who back it will be very very small maybe a few more will abstain but i'd be surprised if if the numbers voting in favour uh probably single digits the number abstaining probably single digits and then i think something like 90 tori mps have already said that they plan to vote against and so i mean a it's hilarious that this is how we're reversing the result of the battle of the boine um but uh additionally um so what does that a lot of people are sort of i mean i'm guilty of this as well and sort of believing that if this could bring down the government to potentially lead to an election do you think there's any credence to that idea so i think it's unlikely because you'd have to get you'd have to believe that the deal will be voted down and then
Starting point is 00:49:37 the government and the dup would vote for a general election which i think is extremely unlikely so i think a general election is not impossible and i think it's it's not an unreasonable position for labour to say well if the government has failed on its major measure in the parliament and uh and has failed to negotiate something that parliament can support then naturally the natural consequence that is to have a general election and certainly until a fixed term parliament act um a piece of legislation like uh the beaming for vote on the brexit deal would be considered confidence vote and if the government lost it you would automatically have a general election because the fixed term parliament act uh you have to have a separate and specially formulated
Starting point is 00:50:19 motion of confidence in the government uh in order to trigger an election and so it seems very unlikely to believe that turkeys will vote for christmas and so i think a general election is unlikely but it's not an unreasonable position for the opposition parties i think labour, smp uh all the others to be arguing that there should be one it's not an unreasonable position so the question is what happens uh if there isn't a general election i think there are a couple of different scenarios the first is that she may just put her vote back up put the deal back up again after seeing chaos so she loses it the first time then you see the pound tumble forcing up the cost of import imports uh maybe some panic buying of food and medicine amongst
Starting point is 00:51:04 the general public and a kind of chaos in financial markets and then basically may comes back and says look what you've done you irresponsible fuckers um here's my deal again do you really want to be heading over the cliff and if you don't vote for it and it's a possibility that that's the way that it gets through that spooks some people basically yeah that could speak some people but the moment with the parliamentary arithmetic was so many people with their heels dug in to voting against it i think even then since it doesn't feel the numbers are going to be close it'd be very very hard to make that happen now the alternative that's in the newspapers today is plan b which allegedly is being led by uh philip hamlet that's all real and yeah
Starting point is 00:51:48 it's what we're going to do is we're going to take the entire shell brussels take the entire european research group and we're going to fly them over europe and then they'll drop out of the plane and they'll have to pick up whatever weapons they can find and then whoever is the last money to see that the last one standing so i sort of feel like i sort of feel like the inevitable conclusion of any deal is going to be like the purge like i feel that's the only way like things things can really be sorted out no we need a purge we need to be a country i'll be sweet so what is plan b for brexit well plan b is to go in the opposite direction and then to put up a norway style ea deal and to put that to parliament on the basis that when there was a vote about the
Starting point is 00:52:32 ea there was an amendment for the ea uh earlier this year i'm thinking about in june time there was an amendment that was tabled uh for britain to join the ea and that i think something like 70 labour mps rebelled against uh the labour whip which i think was to abstain and voted in favour of the amendment for the ea and so the theory there would be that if may could hold her coalition together that then she could get these 70 labour mps to support it or at least abstain and maybe that's how she'd get it over the line now i think that is going to be really tough really tough because the fundamental problem there is that the ea is basically EU membership but without a say and i think the response to that would be well on the ballot in 2016 there wasn't an option
Starting point is 00:53:30 that there was an option to leave there was an option to remain there wasn't an option to stay effectively as an EU member but have no say in it and so i think at that point i suspect that she would just alienate or remain voters who would say well what's the point in being in EU without a say and or leave voters who would say well we thought we voted to leave the EU why are we staying in it so i i'm very skeptical of the prospects of success for that that plan b i can see the logic as to why they might try it but i think it would be so unpopular in the country as to find it very hard to believe that it would it would be a runner in parliament so what's what's the third possibility because so far it seems like there are two things that won't work well
Starting point is 00:54:14 then if the government has then tried plan a which is a hard brexit that you know disrupts the economy because don't forget in the political declaration doesn't say frictionless trade so it does say new barriers to trade making our trading position worse than it's been in the past plan b of the EEA style option i think it's going to have so little public support that i can't see that being a runner uh general election i can't see the Tories going for it i think that means that the government might be forced or might have forced itself into a position of a second referendum and i think at that point uh you know everyone will have to consider what the options are i think labour is said pretty clearly it would say all options should be on the table and i think labour will
Starting point is 00:55:01 have to make a determination as to which option it backs but i think under that scenario what's interesting about it is that it's very clearly uh the government's failure that would have brought around a second referendum not the people's vote campaigners or any of that i think that's that's actually kind of where i i want to take us now which is a quick fire dispelling of some brexit myths uh and this is this comes from the people's vote lot i hate that name too it's so annoying because it's just the first thing you think is well you know you're calling it a people's vote well how is that different from the vote the people had two years ago it's just the right people it's just yeah exactly it's just idiotic yeah so it's the one of the one of the people's
Starting point is 00:55:42 vote sort of things that they tend to trumpet um or indeed many of the sort of um sort of hard remain people that i know sort of they always say labour would be 20 points ahead if Jeremy Corbyn would only come out against brexit i just don't understand it because if you want to see a party that it that has come out firmly and clearly against brexit and so as you just call the whole thing off that's the Lib Dems and they're currently down in sort of what high single digits yeah so it's clearly just demonstrably not true and the other factor is just if you look at how public opinion is divided yes things have tipped a bit more toward to remain but they certainly haven't tipped by a decisive margin so i i personally find that just a bizarre point of view well it's
Starting point is 00:56:26 it's more fantasism it's back to that sort of magical thinking that if we had the right hero who would say the who would say the right words then we could sort of magic ourselves and and he may or may not have a dragon dick exactly dragon energy dragon energy right so well i think it's actually worse than that right so if you had can it be worse than that it can i i actually think quite the reverse i think if labour had adopted a hard remain position so that it's ignoring 52 percent of the population doesn't give a fuck about the referendum and thinks that people should be made to have a second vote because they didn't give the right answer the first time round i think probably what you would have seen would have been much more unity on the government
Starting point is 00:57:12 benches and i think maize deal would have had a much higher chance of being voted through so i think i think actually it's quite the reverse thing if labour had adopted that position they would have increased the probability of a tori brexit occurring the second myth i want to talk about is uh the uh if we leave the european union jeremy corbin won't be able to do socialism well so i i think this is again a kind of slightly bizarre point of view so you have the kind of idiocy of the lexateers who say um that the eu somehow prevents socialism and then you just look at the empirically observable facts which is you know if you take finland the size of the state as a share of national income is 50 percent larger than the uk right finland is 57 percent of
Starting point is 00:58:02 gdp's that's a majority of national income is in the government sector um and you compare that to the uk which is on a trajectory by the 2020s to be at 38 percent so clearly this idea that somehow you can't be uh in a socialist country uh inside the eu is a is a total nonsense inequality in demark and sweden is five fold difference in income uh between the the bottom desal and the top desal and in the uk it's 11 fold so that the sort of lexate argument just doesn't stack up on the facts and then the argument that you go out of the eu and therefore the natural response uh is to somehow have more austerity is equally stupid because if you end up in a position whereby you damage your trading relationships uh and you have chronically deficient demand in order to
Starting point is 00:58:54 kickstart the economy and get it going again you are probably going to have to have um an emergency fiscal stimulus i mean even philip hammond is saying that that he's preparing fiscal firepower for that so if one of the uh people who has sustained austerity thinks that the logical response to leaving the eu uh without a deal is going to have to be uh a fiscal expansion it would be perverse for labor to say well we come into office outside the eu and somehow pick up on where george osborne left off i mean i just find that incomprehensible and the other thing i i think is that the people who make the point of uh so we can't do socialism if we leave the european union because we'll lose too much gdp or whatever have accepted a sort of a folk a right wing folk economics
Starting point is 00:59:41 framing of what austerity is in does like it it doesn't save money it just disciplines workers right like it's it's it's they i'm astonished it's just completely mad it's it makes absolutely no sense um the other one i want to talk about now is that there are people saying well we should cancel brexit unilaterally either because you know russia sent some emails and like you know erin banks went to moscow and that the leave campaign sort of overspent through some weird fashion student i just i again this is one of those things where i just i don't understand it i mean telling people that they were duped and that they're idiots seems like a really poor way to persuade them that they're that the country should take a different course i mean if you want to i just
Starting point is 01:00:27 was on my way here i saw some disgusting tweet from one of these fbp people uh saying how vile our country is because she was wearing a remain an eu hoodie and people are looking at her contemptuously and it just she concluded that this country was just full of vile people who hate hoodies on the it's not streetwear anymore everyone's in the crew necks i was telling riley about this he was like let's make some let's make some trash future hoodies right it's like no people don't wear hoodies anymore they wear crew necks crew necks is streetwear right i mean the right and the reality is that the government sent a leaflet to every household saying this is why the government definitely thinks that you should vote remain it did it before the spending rules kicked in it spent
Starting point is 01:01:08 i think 10 million pounds or thereabouts sending that leaflet you know busting any kind of reasonable spending limits you had the full uh infrastructure of the state thrown behind the remain campaign plus all of big business all behind the remain campaign huge donors pouring money into different political parties into the main campaigns and so on and the idea that people saw a few tweets for some russian bots and then thought oh i know i'll probably vote to leave i just think is such a nonsense and it's again it's it's a way of absorbing themselves of any responsibility for having got britain into such a state in 2016 that people felt you know what i'll vote to leave because it's gotten a destruct of a law because anything's got to be better than the state we're
Starting point is 01:01:57 in you know you've got to remember the remain campaign in 2016 went around saying don't risk the economic recovery well the facts are that outside of london the southeast not in northern island wales scotland nor any region of england other than london the southeast had gdp per capita recovered to its pre-crisis peak there had not been an economic recovery and their message was don't risk the economic recovery which is pure lunacy it's it's that i think the i think you're right a big part of it is about sort of see is sort of trying to revise history and say well actually no we were right in but it's a we were honorable they were shit we were honorable we played by the rules they didn't play by the rules they didn't play the by the rules and they were
Starting point is 01:02:42 shit yeah and that and the other idea i think is that this is and you can see this in america as well with the sort of you know obsessives over trump russia and there are ones who are always following robert moeller who are sort of replying to donald trump with like you know pictures of a jail cell or whatever they're people who who who are wanting this deus x machina right they want this procedural trick because they've all seen so many movies where all is lost right and there's this final moment where everything seems like it's at a darkest and then something just something happens almost by accident like so the villain oversteps just a little bit or some coincide by some coincidence man arrives yeah or whatever there was a rule something comes out of the woodwork
Starting point is 01:03:25 and snatches victory from the jaws of defeat and people sort of keep wait they're they're sitting in the third act of this movie like waiting for it to end and waiting for it to end satisfyingly because they're saying i want to get off i want to go back i feel like i'm dreaming like they have they're sort of driving themselves out of reality because they can't accept this sort of that has become so unpalatable for them absolutely it's just it's a total it's a total nonsense and also you know it actually harms the pro european cause very substantially you know when you see this kind of shit i think you know it's a wonder that that so many people so many sections of the public end up wanting to support remain when they have to listen to this complete nonsense
Starting point is 01:04:04 and the kind of aesthetic and cultural contempt that the kind of hard remain elite show for half the country is disgraceful in fact this is sort of then where i want to get this because i'd like to i think i'd like to sort of wrap up on this concept and this is actually from an article that you sent me that paul mason wrote and this is the end the the end sort of paragraph of that article i'm just going to read it now mason writes i feel sorry for people who voted for brexit thinking we could quote just walk away from europe it was a lie then it has been proved so now reese mog and his cohorts can just shrug and walk back to their mansions but the people who bought their lies will rightly feel betrayed and those of us who oppose them need to manage what happens
Starting point is 01:04:47 next carefully all kinds of far right thugs and racists stand ready on the streets against the betrayal of brexit parliament has to be seen to do the maximum possible to achieve what the referendum result mandated but in the end the final say should once again be given to the british people so i i had a i wrote a medium post last weekend or the weekend before last which basically made the same argument i think in the end the circumstance under which a second referendum is legitimate is only if parliament has failed and the government has failed to deliver on the instruction that the people gave in 2016 and the only way out of the impasse is a second referendum i think those are the only circumstances under which it's democratically legitimate to go back
Starting point is 01:05:30 to the people i also think by the way the only labor can win a second referendum for remain and i think the really crucial point for labor to make is that labor cannot promise labor should oppose tori brexit but also labor should have posed tori remain and i think if labor does lead a second referendum campaign it will need to argue against the hard remain elite who have been promoting their own self-interest and the interests of the kind of corporate elite and i think labor will have to run against tori brexit and i think it will have to build its own distinctive message i think if there's a second referendum campaign i think labor should have nothing to do with the cross-party uh campaign group and should run its own
Starting point is 01:06:22 its own uh uh distinctive labor message on on remain if those circumstances come about but i think the most important thing is that it has to be clear that those circumstances have come about not because of labor campaigning for a second referendum but because the tories have failed to deliver brexit on its own terms and that there is no other alternative the other the other piece of this of this paragraph that i want to pull out is i think mason quite rightly says that the psychological shock to a lot of hard brexiteers many of whom have fashion elements um is going he's saying that it's there is a real chance that he says far right thugs and racists stand ready to go to the streets against the betrayal
Starting point is 01:07:10 of brexit i mean there i think there's a real possibility that if a second referendum is called then we have to we obviously we have to understand that this is a risk of course there's a risk i in fact i don't think it's a risk i think it's a it's a it's a near certainty and i think you know no one should imagine for a moment that there is any good path for this country in the in the immediate term if we leave with maize deal the destination is a hard brexit that will damage our economy and and damage people's living standards if we have a second referendum and we remain i think there will be an enormous feeling of betrayal that will be a real feeling of betrayal and i think in addition to that uh i think you will get the far right who will seek
Starting point is 01:08:00 to exploit that moment and i think that that's why the only responsible group who can who can campaign for remain has to be the labor party because it's the labor party that can promise that a remain for the future is not taking it back to a Tory remain it's not taking it back to the european union of 2016 that labor will deliver reforms to our relationship with the european union from within it and that labor will invest and rebuild and take care of the communities that have been so betrayed for a generation uh since the rampant deindustrialization of 1980s and the destruction to communities and labor has to promise that it will rebuild the country and i think in those circumstances where labor says remain reform rebuild are the only hope
Starting point is 01:08:51 of healing a divided a divided country but who knows how this plays out i mean i think that's that's probably as as good a place as any to end it because very rarely do we get to end this on positive if unsure note so i'm going to say uh tom thank you very much for making your way down to the guyhouse all today it's been fun it's been fun and i'm looking forward to seeing the the pictures from uh anime dragon dick dragon dick dragon dick can we call can we call the episode dragon dick i guess we can't totally i totally can well we can call it dragon dick everyone's gonna be so confused that'd be completely confused dragon dick and brexit um as per usual uh our uh we we are supported by patreon if you like you can get a second episode of the show if
Starting point is 01:09:44 you subscribe for five five pounds five dollars a month there um you can also commodify your descent with a t-shirt from lil comrad uh you could have you could get ed to print uh big dragon energy on it for example that'd be pretty funny um and finally uh thank you as always to our theme song it is called here we go by jin sang you can find it on spotify it's extraordinarily good and in any case uh i think that's it good night everybody good

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