TRIGGERnometry - An Honest Conversation With Nigel Farage

Episode Date: February 17, 2022

Nigel Farage is a broadcaster and former politician who was leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016. SPONSORED by Fortune and Freedom:  It’s time to take control of your money… Sign up for free here: https://subscribe.fortuneandfreedom.com/X983Y230/faf2-b Join our exclusive TRIGGERnometry community on Locals! https://triggernometry.locals.com/ OR Support TRIGGERnometry Here: https://www.subscribestar.com/triggernometry https://www.patreon.com/triggerpod Bitcoin: bc1qm6vvhduc6s3rvy8u76sllmrfpynfv94qw8p8d5 Buy Merch Here: https://www.triggerpod.co.uk/shop/​​​ Advertise on TRIGGERnometry: [e-mail] Join the Mailing List: https://www.triggerpod.co.uk/sign-up/​​​ Find TRIGGERnometry on Social Media:  https://twitter.com/triggerpod​​​ https://www.facebook.com/triggerpod​​​ https://www.instagram.com/triggerpod​​​ About TRIGGERnometry:  Stand-up comedians Konstantin Kisin (@konstantinkisin) and Francis Foster (@francisjfoster) make sense of politics, economics, free speech, AI, drug policy and WW3 with the help of presidential advisors, renowned economists, award-winning journalists, controversial writers, leading scientists and notorious comedians. -  Chapters: 00:00 Intro 02:20 Why Brexit Didn't Reduce Immigration 05:42 The State of British Politics, Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party 08:53 2019 UK General Election and the Brexit Party 11:06 Will Nigel Make a Comeback to Politics? 16:03 Are We in a Political Crisis? 18:45 FPTP vs PR 22:17 COVID Authoritarianism 28:04 State Power vs Individual Freedom  32:55 Inflation, Energy Bills, Net Zero 41:17 Energy Security and Globalisation 42:30 War in Ukraine? 51:50 Joe Biden and the Democratic Party 54:13 Will Trump Run Again? 01:02:37 January 6th Capitol Riot 01:05:20 The Class Divide Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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and sign up for a free newsletter that will help your money work for you. The link is in the description. I still don't think people understand what's about that happen. Hello and welcome to Trigonometry. I'm Francis Foster. I'm Constantine Kisham. And this is a show for you

if you want honest conversations with fascinating people. Our brilliant and returning guest needs very little introduction. Nigel Farage, welcome back to Trigonometry. It's good to be here and not doing it via Blumen Zoom. I couldn't agree with you more. It's a real pleasure. It's so good to have you back.

Let's get straight into it, Nigel. One of the questions that I've been meaning to ask you, because as you know, Francis and I were both remain voters, but very open to the democratic argument, and by the way, been persuaded by some of the arguments, guests have made on the show in the past about it. Would you vote remain today? I doubt it.

I wouldn't, no. No, I doubt it. I doubt it. I think we've seen that the economic disaster that is happening, it's happening for other reasons now, that we were promised. We still got sandwiches. I thought we were going to lose those. And look, I think this is the issue I was going to ask you about because the one thing that Brexit hasn't delivered, which I think a lot of people thought it would, is the reduction in immigration, right? And I've always been in favor of a sensible immigration policy as an immigrant myself. I don't see why we should have open borders

or people should be able to come without doing the checks and all of that. But that hasn't happened, Nigel, has it? You know, despite the way that I was portrayed for year after year after year, for even daring to discuss the subject. And kind of Enoch Powell did the immigration argument, huge harm

all the way back in the midst of 1968, that after that moment in time, it became almost the unacceptable subject to discuss in British politics. Thatcher talked a little bit about it, but generally you couldn't talk about it. I'd always argued that we had a discriminatory immigration system. We were in favour of anybody from the continent of Europe,

and we put barriers up to the rest of the world. So I was making the argument that we should have a points-based style system, regardless of where you came from, and that we absolutely should not discriminate against the Commonwealth, you know, people with whom we have a lot of shared history, common language, you know, all of those things. What was really interesting when the referendum finally came

and the referendum finally came because of the surge in the UKIP vote and the immigration argument or actually the impact on people's lives of uncontrolled mass immigration on a scale Britain had never seen when it came to the referendum the conservatives

and Labour MPs that join vote leaves. did not want to discuss this subject. Didn't want to discuss it. All too difficult, all too awkward, not popular at Notting Hill dinner parties. And in the end, they realised to win the referendum, it couldn't just be us talking about it, myself and Aaron Banks.

They had to be involved. There was a lovely cartoon when they first mentioned Australian Stylepoint System. A lovely cartoon in a telegraph, and it was me. Drinking a pint was quite normal, but drinking a pint of Australian points system. Sounds like a photograph, 19 other car. But it could have been. And there was Boris and Gove saying,

Barman, we'll have the same as he's having. So in the end, they talked about it, but never with any sincerity. And whenever Boris has been asked about immigration since the referendum, oh, well, it's certainly marvellous because we're getting back control of who comes into Britain.

But never, ever has he begun to hint that it would be a reduction of numbers. So you've actually got a concussion of numbers. So you've actually got a conservative party who won the immigration theme, and frankly, for most of them on Brexit, just embraced it for a career opportunity. Never actually really believed in it. And numbers are not reducing.

But of course, it's the illegal immigration that's leading to the anger. It's what's happening in the English Channel. And that was the story that I really picked up on right at the start of lockdown. And I started going out into the English Channel, filming what was going on, getting roundly condemned, but actually I think I did help make that a much bigger media issue than it is. So, yeah, any thought that because we voted Brexit, immigration's been dealt with, and it's therefore no longer a political issue, is for the birds.

So, yes, I'm disappointed. The problem is, Nigel, is that people voted for this in the expectation that immigration was going to be lowered. It hasn't been. So where do we go from here? Yeah, as I say, I, You know, the Conservative Party is a pretty vile organisation. You know, they cynically. I mean, you know, it took them a long time.

It took them to the summer of 2019 to really embrace the narrative, but not the delivery. I think we are at a moment with British politics where our levels of disenchantment with the system and with the people are even worse than they were before the insurgency that led to the referendum in the first. first place. I don't know is the answer to that. I genuinely don't know. I mean, I think at some

point Boris goes, all right? At some, no, I know, it's agony, isn't it? You know, wait for the Sue Gray report, wait for the Metropolitan Police, whatever it is. My anger with Boris actually isn't the passes. No. I mean, I'm annoyed. My anger is the betrayal of what so many people wanted. You've raised the immigration question, but actually that's part of something bigger. Brexit led people to believe that a new type of politics was coming. A real hope and anticipation of a new kind of politics. And we've gone back to the Old Etonian Oxbridge PPE degree, chumocracy of upper middle class people, rabbiting on about net zero.

Well, if you live in Richmond in a five million pound house, net zero is absolutely marvellous, darling. because it doesn't matter to us it costs 25 grand to put a heat pump on the side of the house or oh we'll have a new Tesla you know that's the kind of government it's become so I think what'll happen is this Boris will go my sense of it

is that the 5th of May will be a disaster that's the local elections where councils they hold like Wandsworth Westminster are really seriously in play the next conservative leadership election will be an existential battle for the future of conservatism in this country.

It'll be Rishi on one side representing tax and spend, big state, social democracy. I mean, literally not a Ritzler paper between him and Kyrs-Tarmer, really, on the big issues of the day. And then there'll be somebody standing up for what I think and understand conservatism to be, mainly individual responsibility, opportunity, and the state not control. your life. And if that battles lost, I don't know where we go. You see, Brexit happened because of an insurgency. And there was a means by which that could be expressed. Breaking the first past the post electoral system, I mean, changing anything in this country is really very, very

difficult. In fact, in some ways, I look at Brexit almost as a miracle. Well, given the mass battalions that were there on the side of not even having a conversation about it 10 years ago. So we're in a very difficult place. If you could go back to the 2019 general election, because you didn't put forward candidates from the Brexit Party in constituencies where conservatives were, do you think looking at the way Brexit has happened? Do you think that was a mistake now, Nigel?

That is a very good question. And I'm not saying let's just play for time, which is what they normally do. I've thought a lot about that. I thought a lot about that. I could have put candidates up against all the sitting MPs. I could have gone around the country, rubbishing the deal, saying that it will split Northern Ireland off from the country.

It's an economic and environmental catastrophe for our fisheries. I could have done that. I could have rubbish the whole thing. But, you know, in that particular election, 2015 UKIP took more Labour votes than Tory votes We actually helped the Tories I mean they weren't bright enough to understand it then

And I've never been thankful But I wouldn't expect that But in 2019 it was different And if we had If I had gone ahead with that strategy I think it would have led to 40 or 50 Lib Dem seats Particularly in I think frankly from Eisha

Through to Land's End There would have been There would have been an orange wall a Lib Dem wool. They thought that too. She admitted after the election that my decision had just po-laxed the Lib Dems can.

So what I feared was a Labour, Lib Dem, S&P majority in the House of Commons taking us back into a second referendum and goodness knows what and a breakdown of trust far more serious than what we're talking about sitting here this morning.

On balance, it was the right thing to do. I am disappointed in Johnson. I mean, not that I've ever really believed in him. Well, no, I mean, it's not about, you know, for him, it's all about rank title position. It's not really about policy. It's not really about principle. But no, looking back, despite everything, it was still the right thing to do. And Nigel, you wrote an article recently, I think, in Telegraph about there's a brewing revolt on the right.

And I think you do say that you're ready to be part of it. Now, you're obviously doing great work on GB News. popular show on there, would you consider coming back and trying to create some kind of other insurgency? Let me ask you, let me explain why I'm asking this question, because everything you've said so far suggests to me that, okay, someone like you can come along and you can lead a movement that will inspire people to vote for something. But at the end of the day, it's going to be one of the two major parties delivering whatever it is that you inspire, and then are going to do the thing that a lot of people voted for. It's difficult for me. I mean, look, number one, I did it for a

hell of a long time. Yeah. I mean, I was in the front lines, you know, year after year after year. European elections, no problem. Proportional representation. No question what the issue was. And I led parties that won in 2014 and 2019. Two national election victories leading two different parties. No one's ever done that before. But in 2015, when I put my heart and soul into a general election campaign and get four million votes in one seat. It's quite tough to ask me to do that again. Could I go around the country and really ferment another big political insurgency?

Could I get even more votes than I got in 2015? Probably. But what would it lead to? And for me to do that again is very, very difficult. Did it take a lot out of you? Well, I've given a fair bit already to this. But so I think that, and you were going to mention GB News, but whether it's GB News, whether it's 3.3 million people following on social media,

whether it's things that I write for the telegraph or whatever it is, I still think I can move the needle. I still think I can shift the centre of gravity of public opinion on issues. I'm honorary president of Reform UK. It's a bit like sort of being pushed upstairs. And Richard Tice has got the energy to go out there and do it. So he's got my full support. I mean, I'll be honest with you, every day,

I get emails saying you've got to come back, you've got to come back, you've got to come back. It's not top of my bucket list, having done it for all those years. But you know what? Never say never. Oh. Well, if, and I've said already to you that when Boris goes, as and when that is, there is going to be this battle. Is the Conservative Party going to become just a Social Democrat Party? Are we going to stick in the Osborne Cameron mould?

Is it going to be a party that looks after those that already have plenty? Or is it going to be that kind of aspirational, ambitious party that wants to support enterprise, energy, social advancement, and if it does go back to that social democrat centre and if the choice between you know, Starma and Sunak, let's say, in 2024, was negligible, then I can't rule it out.

It's not what I want to do, but I'll be honest with you. You know, I enjoyed so much of what I did in politics, despite the nastiness. And there's barely a photograph of me touring the country where I'm not having a laugh or, you know, meeting people and having fun.

But it's a pretty tough place to be. It's not an easy place to be. And the trouble with it is, you're not responsible just for yourself. You're responsible for what the branch chairman of some obscure suburb of Sheffield said on Twitter at quarter past two in the morning after five glasses of red wine.

Whereas what I do now, I'm directly accountable if I make a mess of things, that's down to me. So, I mean, I'm enjoying life now. I've enjoyed, you know, since the referendum of 16, I've enjoyed getting into broadcasting, something I'd ever done before, and I'm enjoying that. I've enjoyed, you know, not having to be hands-on

and living on the road six days a week, which I did for 20 years. I mean, literally six days a week on the road, and I'm enjoying not doing that. I've enjoyed being able, after almost 20 years out of it to get back to where I started in financial markets

and putting together you know, as a daily email, fortune and freedom goes to 85,000 people where I'm trying to help people not get ripped off by the financial services industry. So there are lots of things that I've done in the last few years. That means

life is pretty cool. Life is pretty good, but never say never. Nigel, do you think we're in political crisis? now. This is a question I asked most of our guests. And when I started asking it, I wasn't sure, but I think we are. What do you think? I trust is a very important word. As I say, Brexit raised the hopes. Some were in despair over Brexit, but they're quite a small, they're quite a small minority. And guys like you that voted Remain, well, now you see it differently. And that's fine.

but for a lot of people there was this sort of new dawn that Brexit was going to bring a different kind of politics it hasn't happened and so yes I think it is a breakdown of trust a belief that the system doesn't serve us and you know I can look right through the whole thing I mean the House of Laws is an abomination

you know just stuff with mates of prime ministers and party don't know the whole thing's a disgrace the electoral system even when you get radical shifts in general elections, two-thirds of seats in Britain are safe. You know, if you live in somewhere with a massive Labour majority or a massive Tory majority, it's no point voting, is that? We can't change anything.

An older generation would say... But what about the Red Wall, Nigel? I mean, that went, didn't it, in the 2019? You had lots of constituents. Well, the Red Wall went years before that. The Red Wall all voted UKIP and the Brexit Party. The Red Wall was crumbling in 2013. You know, they were the Labour voters

that were coming to me and coming to UKIP in very large numbers. I was the gateway drug through to what happened in 2019. So yes, there are places where you can get change, but there are still vast parts of this country where your vote makes no difference at all, where there is no degree of proportionality in Westminster whatsoever.

We have a postal voting system that frankly just leaves us wide open to fraud, abuse, intimidation in the big cities. So, I mean, I'm a radical about this, a genuine radical in the 18th century use of that

word, you know, I would like to see complete root and branch reform of our entire system of governance. I think Brexit has got us back control of our country. It's now for us to make sure the country's actually run properly. And I think to have a system in England where it's just two

passes and there's no way anybody else can break through. And even if they get close, the establishment just cheats. Yeah, I think there is a crisis there. And I, the trouble is in the past, when people ask me questions like that, I always had an answer as to how I thought we could break this up. And right now I haven't got that answer. Well, the problem you have is if you talk about proportion of representation, forget about the merits of this.

How are you going to get it if you've got two parties that are massively invested in keeping things where they are? And that's why changing anything is difficult. I mean, equally, you know, we don't have open primaries. you know, if the Labour and Conservative parties had a genuine open primaries. We might get a very different kind of leadership. I mean, I'll be honest with you. Even when Boris goes,

if there were open primaries in this country, I would put my name forward. Nigel Farage Prime Minister, the leader of Conservative Party. No, I would put my name for it. Yeah, I can see that. Then you'd have a lot of support. Now, okay, we're not a presidential system. I get that.

But, you know, the idea, you love me or hate me, but the idea that someone like me is a completely, completely excluded from this. I mean, the Conservative Party wouldn't even have me as a member. It's bizarre. It's a very interesting. It's bizarre. It's a very, it's, I mean, PR does have a lot of disadvantages. I mean, David Starkey, who you, you've spoken with as well, he made this point when we had him on a long time ago that the one thing about first past the post is it prevents extremism being reflected. So that is a concern where you might get, you know, B&P getting 5%. Not, not today. but 10 years ago, whenever it was in.

You know something? I don't buy that. I just don't buy that because the BNP did achieve that. They got a million votes, yeah. In the European elections of 2009, the BNP did that. And once they had elected representatives,

look what happened. It's very interesting that when you put a bit of sunlight onto organisations like this, they actually divide and wither away fairly quickly. Of course, there has to be a threshold. You know, a sensible threshold. But why shouldn't, if there's a big view in this country,

why shouldn't that have a degree of representation? And the argument against PR systems is that it leads to weak government. Well, frankly, Germany since 1945 has pretty much had coalitions all the way through. And for what I can see, they've done quite well. So I, you know, first past the post worked when it genuinely was a two-party system.

But even up until 1900, we had multi-member wards. Do you see? It wasn't just one MP that would represent a district, it was often two or three. And that led, despite the establishment

of political parties and the wigs and the Tories, the liberals, all that. But it's still allowed for independence to come through the system. You know, for other parties

like Joe Chamberlain's party to win seats in Parliament. We've got the worst of all worlds here where it's not multi-member constituencies and it's that rigid first past the post. So look, I do understand that the link between the man or woman and Guilford or wherever it is is quite important. But equally, if you had a degree of proportionality in our

system, you get a much broader range of debate and arguments happening in Parliament. You get much more interesting people actually coming into politics and doing it because they believed in causes and not just for careers. So I think a degree, I said this earlier, a degree of proportionality. I'm not calling for the whole thing to be PR, but a degree of proportionality, I think it'd be very good. And as I say, I think the House of Lords is completely past its sell-by-date, that we have to have some form of election for the upper chamber. And if that means people get elected for eight years, ten years, and we just serve one term, say beer. Speaking of proportionality and sort of moving on a little bit, Nigel, we've obviously

gone through a very strange period in the history of this country and the world over the last couple of years. And we've seen, you know, I don't think you're a big government guy. I'm not a big government guy. And yet we have seen, I mean, on the continent, you talk about Germany and Austria, et cetera, locking unvaccinated people in their homes, fining, et cetera. But even in this country, I mean, I love this country. I've made my home here. And one of the reasons I love it is that you're free to do what you think is the right thing. Whatever, whatever the situation is. And you're free to have your opinion until recently and so on and so forth. And over the last two years, we have seen the state attempting to interfere in things that I just don't think it has a role in.

You know, what have you made over the last two years, the sort of authority vaccine passports, the idea of vaccine mandates, all of that? I've been horrified by it all. And in the first 18 months of this, astonished at the lack of pushback. You go, do a poll and, you know, 64% agree with lockdown and 20% what, whatever. go further or what's going on um do you know what in the end actually the good common sense allied to a free press have won the day well let's remember we're sitting here in the second week of February mid-december we had valence witty the brothers grim we have we have we have we I'm going to steal that.

Well, just seeing them is so depressing. We had Boris Johnson do a Sunday night address to the nation in which he used the word emergency four times about Omicron. All the while, we have the South Africans where this variant had developed, telling the rest of the world, unlike the Chinese, but telling the rest of the world what was coming our way. and explaining that it was much milder

than anything that had gone before and in the end would help to build natural immunity and might actually, oddly, on balance, be a good thing. So mid-December, emergency, lockdowns, catastrophe, the end is nigh. Second week of February, and restrictions about to end completely. How did that happen? Well, it happened because we have commentators,

press, you know, free press commentators arguing enough enough. It happened because there was a backbench rebellion. I mean, the same mob, the same mob that Fort Theresa May over Brussels and all these things. And the good common sense of the British people has come into play, and that's put Boris into line. Interesting, isn't it, that the second country, to follow this route, is Denmark. Also a country that hasn't joined the Euro.

is deeply Eurosceptic and will no doubt leave the European. All roads lead to Berlin but not so done it. Well, but you can't deny it, you know. So actually, this is a good sign. The fact that we've gone in the space of a few weeks from looking like more lockdowns to where we are is a very, very good sign that actually good common sense in the end does prevail in this country.

As for, you know, what is happening in Australia and countries like that, I just, New Zealand, I just can't get a handle on it. But it's not just those two, it's Austria, it's Germany, it's Italy, it's France. Spain. Spain, it's a developed world. Well, thank God we've left the European Union. No, no, I mean, you know, the vaccine roll out, all these things. That was despicable, their behaviour was despicable with the vaccine rollout.

Stunning, you know, stunning. I mean, the way they behaved and, you know, the Guardian telling us that if we left the European Medicines Agency, it would prove that Brexit was a death cult, but it's all wrong. Yeah, look, I'm very worried about this growth of huge government, but I see in Canada, as we speak, it's day 13 of a protest. I generally am pretty appalled by mob rule, but I don't see it as mob rule.

Everything indicates to me that the truckers and their supporters are behaving peacefully, behaving well, that the attempts by Trudeau and others to smear them as being far right extremists simply aren't working. And this is a really big stand. And rather like we've won the battle on the NHS vaccine mandate, and I've been banging all about this on my show night after night for weeks. What's happening in Canada?

I think the pendulum is beginning to turn back, and I think it will start to turn back in other countries. But we've seen the tendency, haven't we, of governments, to use any excuse, any crisis, to build their power. And so, you know, that's the next big battle, isn't it? This is a battle genuinely for liberty, for freedom, for individual choice. And I am going to stick to my theme of the last 30 years,

which is globalist structures, whether it is the European Union, whether it is the United Nations, whether it is the World Health Organization, will always seek to expand. They seek to expand, well, look at NATO in the UK, Ukraine. They seek to expand geographically. We're going to have a big argument about that. They seek to expand, but they seek to expand their own powers. And actually, the antidote to this,

are democratically run nation states with directly accountable politicians. I honestly believe this all fits in to the whole theme of my political life. Nigel, do you not feel that with all the lockdowns, the draconian measures that we've seen, what we've actually done is open a Pandora's box. So next time, there is a particularly bad flu C's. for example, you know, well, we're going to have a few restrictions, otherwise the NHS is going to be overwhelmed if there's a new variant next year, etc, etc. Yeah, climate lockdowns.

Why not? I mean, Sadiq Khan seems to be very keen to drive every car off the roads of London. What if the, you know, particle per million parts of nitrous oxide reaches a certain level in East London and they decide, you know, no more cars for a week? Yeah, no, I do worry. I do worry that that precedent's been set but I do worry about that but I still think

that this victory of common sense that we've achieved over the last couple of months in the UK I think that'll stand us in quite good stead I hope it'll stand us in quite good stead but as for Austria, Germany, New Zealand

maybe it's gone it's funny isn't it? We seem to have a younger generation not all of them, but a younger generation, many of whom seem to think that values matter more than freedom and liberty. And safety. And safety, and the rule of law.

I mean, how a jury, how a jury in the trial of the Colston Four could decide that what happened wasn't criminal damage kind of shows you what I'm saying. Yeah. And when you start to believe in these values, and these values become a substitute for religion, whether it's the fight against global warming,

the fight against racism, historic wrongs, and it's a list as long as your arm. And you start to believe that your view has a moral superiority over people with another view. That's when you start to throw things like liberty, freedom, justice, rule of law, out of the window. So these are very big challenges going ahead. And I think longer term, one of the big issues that we're going to have to address

if we really do care about the size of a state, about individual freedom, is the way young people are being educated. And I think that is the real cancer in society. I mean, I think that, and it's... starts at primary school. This isn't just university. This isn't just a few sort of wacky, lefty professors. This is actually right through the education system. And we seem to have stopped teaching critical thinking. Stop teaching people that, you know, here's a potential problem, here are two approaches to it. They're both valid. And you make your

mind up, which of these you think is the right way to deal with society. And that's kind of been replaced by, well, this one's, you know, good and moral, and this one's evil. So that does pose, you know, a big, a big problem in the years to come. But I'm still, I'm still confident. I'm still bullish. I still think common sense is there. I still think there is a, there is a, when push comes to shove, a silent majority who are for good things and sensible things. I still think we have, particularly with Brexit, an important leadership role that we can be an example to others in the world. So, yeah, I can't help it.

I still come out as the eternal optimist. Hey, Constantine, do you love trigonometry? Of course, incredible interviews, hilarious live streams, hard-hitting satire plus my handsome jawline. Whatever takes away from your hairline. But if you do love trigonometry and you want to support us, There's only one place to do that, and that's on Locals. Yes, Locals is a brilliant platform that has been incredibly supportive to our show and other problematic creators.

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We're talking about optimism, but to me, it seems we're in for quite a bleak year in terms of economics, in terms of inflation. If you look at the challenges the ordinary person is facing when it comes to heating bills, I mean, that's a real worry, isn't it? Well, let's deal with those separately. Inflation, a disease of money caused by government. All right. Now, you get inflationary shocks, you get commodity price rises or whatever. But you also get monetary inflation.

Monetary inflation is caused by governments. It's a miracle to many of us that inflation didn't kick it earlier. Because we've seen since 2008 all sorts of astonishing money creation measures, entire economy is frankly propped up by massive government borrowing and spending and increasing in debt. So I'm not in the least bit surprised inflation's come back. And it's one of the things, you know, with my newsletter, we've been calling this out every day for a year. And fascinating, if you go back to this time last year,

the sheer complacency of central banks, the complacency of politicians, Boris in October, was telling the House of Commons, inflation is not a problem. But it's not just him. They've all had it wrong. They've all had it wrong. Just as none of them saw the crash coming in 2008, none of them have seen inflation coming.

And I'm pleased to say that, you know, I've been there with my team calling this, predicting this all the way through. We've been talking about it for years, we've had people right at the beginning of lockdown saying, well, maybe we should think about how much this is going to cost and how we're going to pay for it. And no one's interested in that when there's a big panic. But there's a secret truth here, isn't that?

Inflation suits government. Governments that have built up massive debts, inflation devalues the size of those debts. And I'm not being a conspiracy theorist, but it almost is a way out. And then central banks can't put interest rates up enough to dampen down inflation because we're so blumen indebted at every level, whether it's national debt, corporate debt, personal debt, that if you put up rates too much too quickly, the whole thing falls to pieces. So I do think actually inflation offers governments a way of getting themselves out of debt.

And the people that pay the price in inflation are ordinary decent folk who see what they work for and save for disappearing. So, you know, you're now being told with the experts, don't worry your poor little heads. You know, it will hit 7.5% in the UK, the inflation rate in April, but it'll fall away by the end of the year. Well, I'm not so sure. On the fuel bill side of things, which is just, I still don't. think people understand what's about to happen. I really don't think they understand the first week of April when those bills hit the mat for their Q1, gas and electricity bills. There's going to be absolute shock and outrage. Number one, massive mistake, the Conservatives adopted price caps.

Can you believe it? Can you believe that a conservative government? I mean, why not set a price for a loaf of bread? I miss what the Marxist did in January. I mean, you know, nuts policy. It never works. It's nearly always counterproductive. But it leads to a much bigger question. Net zero is in economic terms, I think the most self-destructive policy that has ever been put forward

by a British government in the history of the nation. That doesn't mean that I'm against finding ways of producing energy that emit less CO2 and cause less environmental damage. But I'm a pragmatist. You know, we still burn four and a half million tons of coal a year in this country. We have to to make steel. Do you know what?

We import it all. We're importing 50% of our natural gas when we've got vast reserves, possibly as much as a trillion pounds worth of natural gas in Lancashire and Cumbria alone. Hey, that's half the national debt. It's quite interesting when you look at somebody's not. And a lot of jobs, too. Tens of thousands of well-paid jobs. And if you're going to use the blubberman...

in stuff anyway, you might as well make it here. The Americans rethought their energy policy five, six years ago. And the price of natural gas in America is half the price that it is here. We then have walked onto people's bills

incredibly. 25% of your electricity bill is green subsidies. Money that goes to rich landowners. Money that goes to large foreign companies. building wind farms. We've put so much faith in wind energy, or if truth be told, so much money has been made out of wind energy by those in the elites, that we leave ourselves vulnerable, at some point of a not too distant future, to blackouts. So, yes, commodity prices globally

have gone up, but we've left ourselves absolutely exposed, not just to world markets, but left ourselves exposed, you know, 9% of our electricity comes to. from France through an interconnector. So I think we should be self-sufficient in energy. We should be aiming with areas like gas to get people's bills down. I don't think a penny piece

should go to massive global industries in the form of green subsidy. So I think this, I've got a feeling actually that the energy debate, a net zero debate, is going to be huge. And Boris stands up

and says, isn't it marvellous? We've, we've cut our CO2 output by 44% since 1990. Well, if you close down nearly all of your chemical plants, your aluminium smelters, you're refiners, and you move steel plants from Red Car to India, and then import the products back, you yourself may be producing less CO2,

but globally, the net game is even more CO2's being produced. So I think we've got this hopelessly, catastrophically wrong and I think it's a function of and by the way, Labor are just as bad on this if not worse and I think it's a function of career

politicians, a function of people living inside metropolitan bubbles in London prey to the lobbying influences of some people who are rather good at this and utterly disconnected from the real world and it's about to blow up this year

it's about a blow up. Nigel, there is a left-wing argument, which actually I have quite a lot of sympathy for, was saying, isn't Thatcher partly responsible for this for privatising our energy companies? And actually, if the government was in charge of this, we wouldn't be, I mean, they'd make a mess because they always do,

but we wouldn't be in this mess. Privatisation works where you can create competition. I was always sceptical about privatising the railways. It seemed to be, you know, how could you provide a proper competitive network within that? With energy, it's different, actually, because different energy suppliers can supply to your home, and you can go out and game the market and swap and change. So no, I don't have a problem at all with that. But what I have a massive problem with is green subsidy, which is put on by government,

not by energy providers, smart meters, which, again, is a government directive to energy companies, which will lead to peak flow pricing and goodness knows what else. And what I have a massive problem with is the very concept of price caps, which of course is actually bankrupted, as it turned out many of the smaller providers.

So no, look, there are limits to privatisation. There are limits to it, but where you can create genuine competition, that is better than it being state run. And Nigel, you bring up energy security. And so I'm going to butter you up a little bit before we get into a big disagreement about NATO and Ukraine and all that, because I do want to talk about geopolitics a little bit.

But I think this actually plays into your motif more than anything else, which is globalization. It's the idea, oh, yeah, we can buy our electricity from this, and we can buy our steel from that, and we can buy it. And before you know it, Germany is importing its gas from Russia. and even if the West wanted to do something there, I mean, you're being held hostage. Yeah, the just-in-time supply chain.

Don't vote Brexit. Or you'll destroy the just-in-time supply chain. Well, the just-in-time supply chain suits giant multinational global corporations, but does away with any concept of nation, does it way with any concept of a common good for a collective group of people in that nation. And this has been very much exposed.

The German thing's incredible. I mean, utterly incredible. There they were saying Brexit was funded by the Russians. Trump, you know, is in Putin's pocket. It was Germany all the time. I mean, they've made themselves wholly dependent. And that, of course, means that our threat of sanctions against Putin are completely and utterly hollow and meaningless

because he can hurt the West far more than we can hurt him. So let's talk about geopolitics. I've just written a book called An Immigrants Love Letter to the West, and it's mainly about why I think what we have is actually pretty good, and we should stop beating ourselves up about it. But part of my argument is also is, the more we focus internally, the more time we spend talking about, you know, this comedian made this joke, and now we're all very upset for three days and whatever, the more we take eye off the ball, and that's why China's expanding into the South China Sea, it's getting bullish on Taiwan, you see what's happened in Hong Kong,

and Russia likewise, you know. Do you think, do you think? think the West needs to rediscover its kind of ability to project power around the world? Because you seem concerned that NATO is expanding eastwards and all of that. Oh, look, look, I think we've made some massive geopolitical mistakes since 1990. You know, the Berlin Wall had come down, and we decided that NATO and the European Union would expand ever eastwards. You know, empires that are struggling for a role continue expanding. It's a good way to go. I know you just go into answer, and I never interrupt guests generally,

but let me just put a small counter argument. The reason NATO is expanding eastwards is because Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine feel terrified, rightly so, because only 70 years ago the Soviets invaded, massacred their elites, took over their country. They don't want that to happen again. It's not some bureaucrat in Brussels that's making that happen. It's those countries spearing for their survival. Just because they want to join doesn't mean it's a clever geopolitical move for us to say yesterday.

I'm saying the motivation for expansion is not. Look, if I was Polish, I would have wanted to join NATO. If I was Polish, I'd have crossed my fingers and voted to join the European Union probably. I get that. But let's just go back a bit further, you know, go back over the last couple of hundred years, of the formal existence of nation states around the world. The concept of a buffer zone is actually quite an intelligent. concept. Okay. In the case of NATO, this ever eastwards expansion is, has been a deliberately

provocative move against a Russia, which has always been paranoid. You know, the Cold War, Russia was far more scared of us than we were of Russia. And sometimes, I mean, if you want to resolve a conflict, right, sometimes what you have to do is to put yourself in the mind of the the person. It's rather like solving that crossword puzzle. You've got to think, you know, whoever wrote this, what were they hinting at? So we know Russia's paranoid. We know that the old traditional, you know, encirclement idea, invasion idea of Russia is something that motivates them very deeply. By the way, I don't doubt for a moment that Putin does have expansionist tendencies. However, here we are as we sit here today with 130,000 Russian troops massed on the

border. He's making one key demand, which is that we say that the Ukraine will not join NATO. Okay? We have Anthony Blink in the US Secretary of State, Boris Johnson, some woman called Liz Truss, who's become Foreign Secretary. God knows how, but anyway, there we are. And they're all saying, no, no, no, no, no. If the Ukraine wants to join NATO, they can. I suggest right now we say Ukraine will not be joining NATO. We do understand the concerns in Mosul. about Ever Eastwood expansion. It has come to an end. And we now ask President Putin

to stand his troops down on that border. We remove from him his cause as Belai. We take away from him any possible reason that he could have to mount an invasion. And we remember that by not doing this earlier, we've driven Putin into the arms of the communist Chinese government. How blamined, stupid, can we possibly be?

There is no advantage or interest to us in Ukraine joining NATO. If we make this concession at this stage in the aim of bringing peace, do you know something? It might just work. Nigel, what if, what would you say a few years down the line when Russia takes the rest of Ukraine, which it will do? Well, if you want us to go to the Third World War, If you want them to join NATO and send British troops there, that's fine.

I mean, look, look, I am not saying absolutely, I have a cast iron guarantee that I can stop the outbreak of war in the Ukraine. What I can say, I've got a much brighter idea than anybody else who were sticking to the same formula they've had for 30 years, which I believe to be a geopolitical mistake. And one of the reasons I say this is in 2014 we had the Orange Revolution. in Kiev. Do you remember all the people in the square who were part of that coup that brought down a democratically elected leader of the Ukraine?

Yeah, that's where you're starting to lose. Maybe a corrupt country. He may have been a corrupt guy, but he was a democratically elected leader, brought down by people in the squares, waving European Union flags, because the European Union had pumped in pre-accession aid, and it was the stated aim that they wanted to. to Ukraine to join the European Union. Far from being an organisation that guarantees peace in Europe, I think where we are today was provoked in large part

actually by Brussels and its expansionist tendencies. We've made some big mistakes here. And I made those arguments back in 2014 to be condemned by everybody that somehow I was Putin's puppet. I'm not. I just think sometimes that concept of buffer states is actually a brighter thing to do

the malign that we've been pursuing. Here's where I think there's a flaw in your argument, with all possible respect, of course. I'm sure there is one. I think the flaw in your argument is if what we need is a buffer zone, and if Russia is so desperate to have a buffer between itself and nature,

why is Russia expanding westwards? Because he sees an historic coming together with the Russian peoples and all the rest of it. And we have to make it clear to him. There's some historical parallels there. Well, let's take away from him any possible excuse he can have, any validation he can have. Firstly, with his own population.

And secondly, with all the rest of us, I think it's the right thing. So what would you like to do? So Ukraine joins NATO. That's your question. No, I'm not necessarily suggesting that Ukraine should join NATO. I think what I see is in the broader geopolitical. That's why I brought China into this. The West is weak.

And it's showing weakness. Well, we saw that in Kabul last year, didn't we? Right. And the people who, and you'll understand this because you understand how the real world works. You know, in the West we talk about, you know, equality and diversity and whatever. In the real world, people don't operate on that basis. They operate on land, money, finance, weapons, technology, spy, espionage, right? Oil, oil, water, all these things. Chinness.

Yeah, exactly. Human rights. So what this looks like from the outside to me, as I look at it from a non-Western perspective is the West is distracted, the West is weak, and all the things that we would always would have quite liked to have done, right?

If you're China, well, yeah, you want to expand this way and you want to take over Hong Kong and want to do this. So from my perspective, it depends on what people in the West want. If you want the managed decline of the West, this is what you're going to get. I have a feeling if Donald Trump was in the White House, we wouldn't see a little rocket man firing off all these rockets.

I don't think China would be quite as bellicose about Taiwan's there. But that's my point. No, no. I mean, look, you know, Biden has been a catastrophe. The unilateral withdrawal from Afghanistan was a complete disaster. Right.

And far from America is back. They've actually retreated away. Clearly. And the West is now without leadership. But that's my point, Nigel. By advocating for the position you're advocating for, that's part of the same sort of, well, we just need to, you know, appease these people.

And instead of the West coming out and going, look, We are the world's superpower. We are that... We're not embarrassed about our values. Our values are better than yours, right? Freedom, democracy. These are all good things. And we are going to spread them around the world

because this is who we are. And we are the strongest thing. If you think China and Russia, if they were the dominant hegemony in the world, they wouldn't do that. You're insane. No, I know. I just see that being seen to make something of a concession

right now, gaining the moral upper ground in this whole diplomatic standoff that is currently going on over the Ukraine when as I say it's not in our interest for them to join anyway. If he still goes to war, he still goes to war.

We'd then be much more united against him because we would have been seen to have done the right thing. As it is, we're carrying on with a policy that's a mistake. Nigel, and we touched on Biden, we touched on Trump. So let's just move and turn our eye

to the United States. Why do you think Biden has been a disaster, number one. And number two, do you think we're going to see a comeback for Trump? So Biden wasn't fit to do the job anyway, and the Democrats are in a real mess as a party. Why do you say that? Because this is somebody who's had a very long, very distinguished political career.

No, he's a very long career. He's not had a distinguished career. I mean, nobody in Washington would tell you that for a moment. I'm not going to rehash November 3, 2020. I'm not going to rehash 100 million postal votes, the fact that the scandals involving his son, the computer. I love how he's not rehashing it. The money. I'm not going to go there.

Shut up you. He's not mentally fit for the job. But the Democrats have a huge problem because they've got the new left. They've got their own Corbinistas. It's very, very difficult for them to be an effective political party. So not up to the job. No clear. coherent policy positions on anything.

I mean, literally on anything. And you've seen America's reputation on the world stage collapse since Afghanistan, and we've just discussed some of the knock-on effects from that. And internally, well, you've seen a Democrat party under Biden effectively take the knee to a dangerous, Marxist organization intent on destroying

Western democracy and replacing it with something else and that's called BLM, Black Lives Matter and we're all supposed to say, oh, what a love... I mean, you know, a really, really, really bad organization with massive spikes in lawlessness in American cities, I mean, the likes of which we simply can't believe.

How can New York be going back to the bad old days and when I first went there back in the 80s. And go out west, go out west and see what's happening in many of those cities. I mean, you simply can't believe it. So at every level, a Democrat party that is there because it's not Donald Trump, a Democrat party that stands for almost nothing, and a Democrat party that's in big trouble. Cross to be Republicans.

I mean, Donald Trump's grip on the Republican Party is very, very, very, very strong indeed. The Country Club Republicans have been pretty marginalised. You know, the Mitt Romney's, the Mitch McConnell's, the sort of Rishi Sunaxe, if you like, of the Republican Party, it'd be marginalized, and Trump's in control. He's 75, but he's lost about 20 pounds since the last election.

He's playing golf pretty much every day. I've seen him a couple of times in the last year. He's in pretty good form, physically in pretty good form. clearly DeSantis, who has done all the things that you would approve of in Florida in terms of not allowing the state to take over too much,

clearly DeSantis is the up and coming guy. If Trump wants the nomination, it's his. Okay, it's as simple as that. We're still some way off that. All I would say is this. My concern, having been at Mar-a-Lago, at the end of November

is that the people around Trump are looking back too much at November the 3rd are talking constantly about the stolen election keep talking about the events of the 6th of January and it's really interesting how do you win elections

how do you win referendums is it through negative messaging or is it through positive messaging and there's a time and a place for both but generally I think to win elections you've got to have a positive message you have to see that Churchill vision

of the sunlit uplands and that we're heading off to a better place so I think the Trump team need to get out of this current gear if they leave themselves stuck in this looking back full of regret

as opposed to we're going to make sure America has the best most valid electoral system in the Western world, which is the way of turning a negative into a positive. So that's my reservation. Right now, it is head.

He's running. But do you not worry, Nigel, that, because I'm not a fan of the Democrats, I'm certainly not a fan of BLM. But I look at Trump, and I think that he's too divisive a figure to be a truly unifying force for America, which is what it needs right now. Well, Biden's not unified them either. And these divisions that we've talked about in this chat, this values-based, this values-based, we're morally superior to yours.

None of this is going to be sold easily. None of this is going to be sold quickly. And as the universities, which have become the sort of madrasas for Marxism, churn out thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of more young people every year with that mindset. None of this is going away in a hurry. I do get the fact that Trump can be very divisive.

I do get the fact that Trump is a real fighting puncher. And as with all political leaders, as with all human beings, you've got to see the good side and the less good side. And the less good side is perhaps that aggression. I'd like to see him more in public as he is in private. I'd like to see more of that sort of lighter, more humorous side, yet we never ever do. but I do think

Trump's period in office I think his foreign policy was far better than anything we've seen from American presidents for a very, very long time I saw the other week the head of Saudi Arabia and Israel meet together in Riyadh there was the Israeli flag

the Israeli national anthem I mean unthinkable and that was a direct result of the Abraham Accords had that been done by Obama or anybody else they'd have been up for a Nobel Peace Prize because it's Trump, it's been ignored. When Trump called out the virus

as having leaked from the Wuhan Lab, the whole world ignored it because he'd said it. So yeah, he is provocative. He can be very divisive. I get all of that. But I think his instincts on the really big, important things that face the world right now are the right ones.

Nigel, if you get a call in the middle of the night and Donald Trump is having a bit of a crisis of confidence about whether he should run or maybe hand it off to like a DeSantis or or someone, Dan Crenshaw. There's really strong candidates, actually, in my opinion, on the Republican side. What would you say to him? I... Do you anoint a successor?

I may have had that conversation with him already, but I can't remember. Well, what might you have said had you had? What might I say? You see, I have met DeSantis, and he's really impressive. and I think the job he's done in Florida is phenomenal. Agreed. Because last May, I was in Florida and I was in California. So I saw two countries, both big populations, similar climates, different approaches, and very different outcomes, you know, economically, socially and everything else.

To win the American election, you've got to win every state from the Atlantic coast of Pennsylvania. through the Great Lakes to Wisconsin. They're the states that matter. They're the states that determine who wins and loses the American presidential election. And they're the states where you've got the mining areas. They're the states where you've got the heavy manufacturing areas. They're the states with their bits of rust belt

and some bits of renewal. And they're states with a huge number of Democrat voters in them. But what's interesting in the polling is that roughly 50% of Democrats do not like the leftward social drift, do not like the AOC stuff, are very uncomfortable with some of the new transgender stuff that's being endlessly talked about. Hate the fact that there are Democrats condemning American history, tearing down statues of the founding fathers, telling them they should be ashamed to be American. They're proud to be American. They're proud of what their grandma and granddad did in World War II. They're proud. At whatever stage their country have come and adopted it,

they're proud of being part of it. And so it's how do you get a larger number of that group of people to sort of cross over, rather like the Red Wall, to cross over and vote Republican. And who is the most likely person to appeal to those people? I still believe it's Donald Trump. I may say different to you in two years' time. I may say different to you, you know, as things really start to get ready.

And I guess really it's going to be, it'll be this time next year, won't it? It'll be one year's time. It'll be early 23 when the big decisions about who's going to run, who's going to put themselves forward, get made. And why do you say that, Nigel? Why is he more able to win those people over that? He's got the common touch. He's got the common touch.

You know, he speaks a language they understand. They feel a certain familiarity with him. I've watched him at these rallies. You know, you guys see the bit in front of the camera. I've watched him with the crowds. I've watched him walk through the crowds. I've watched him interact with people. They love him.

There's a certain humanity about him. There's something real about him. But also, he's been part of their lives for decades. You know, big TV star. I mean, been in the news for decades with New York and the real estate successes and failures. They feel they know the guy. Now, Desantis, who's incredibly bright and impressive,

can DeSantis reach those people, reach that community, or is he just a rich guy from Florida? Do you see what I mean? Trump is like a blue-collar billionaire. It's fascinating to watch it. In a year's time, ask me again, I might have changed my mind,

but at the moment, that's what I believe. Do you think the events of January the 6th, you look back at it, and do you not think that heavily tarnished his reputation? That was awful. I was absolutely dire. I'm so, so pleased I wasn't there. No, I really am. And I...

That would make a great photo. Just you're smashing through the gates of the Capitol. With a bare-skinned hat on you. And the horns, that would be great. With your top of, that would be quite a look. I only do that in private. I thought the whole thing was a mistake. I thought the whole thing was a mistake.

I didn't obviously anticipate exactly what would happen. Was it a full-scale coup attempt? No, of course it wasn't. I mean, that's just nonsense. But this isn't about, you know, all of us have to condemn it. But look, it was terrible. Yeah, yeah. Just a mistake from start to finish.

A mistake from start to finish. the Democrats are going to go through a whole series of show trials as we go on from here to try and prove that it was a coup attempt, they won't succeed. Yeah, it was a mistake. And I mean, look, it's the same with Boris's dilemma at the moment, isn't it? You know, is Carrie over-influential on Boris? Has she led him in the wrong direction? Yes.

But ultimately, Boris is the boss. It's a bit the same with Trump. I do feel that some of the influences that have been around him in the White House perhaps weren't all to the good but I was pretty certain many of them weren't all to the good

but ultimately he's the boss he takes the responsibility so yeah January 6th not pretty but don't you think that if he goes for election again there people it's an easy thing to pin on him you know if you're a Democrat

I mean that That's an easy hit. Yes. Look, there's no doubt about it. There are no votes to be gained on January the 6th. You know? No, yeah, it is one of those things that detracts. Of course.

Nigel, it's been really great to have you back on the show. Always entertaining. Always a pleasure and some very interesting insights. And by the way, one of the things we talked about before we started is how rare it is for people with different political views, people who disagree strongly about things to be able to just have a normal conversation. So, refreshing too. Well, thank you. And I have to say, that's what we have to get back to.

We have to get back to passionate but civilized discourse and respecting the fact different people have different opinions. And with that, we have got one final question for you, which is, of course, as always, what is the one thing that we're not talking about that we really should be? The class divide. Never gets discussed.

You know, we talk about divisions in society. We talk about, you know, ethnicity, constantly. are we being fair to this group of people or that group of people? Far too little discussion on social mobility. And actually, what I see is the more governments tax and redistribute, the lower levels of social mobility are. For social mobility, people need opportunity. They need that through education, which I've mentioned earlier,

I think is one of the great challenges ahead of us. They need it in the workplace. working from home is not good for young people to get on. And so, yeah, I do think that it's good to see actually some 2019 Red Ball Tory MPs who come from working class backgrounds. But I do think the class divide in this country is set in stone far more than it ever was. The opportunities to break out of it aren't there.

World Wars, ironically, gave people from humble backgrounds a chance to move up through the ladder. grammar schools, for example, gave a lot of people from those backgrounds the chance to excel and go up the ladder. And I do ever so slightly feel that middle class Britain has pulled the drawbridge up. Well, we're going to ask you a couple of questions from our supporters in a second, but thank you so much for coming back on the show. And thank you for watching and listening. We'll see you very soon with another brilliant episode like this one, or a show. All of them go at 7pm UK time. And for those of you who like your trigonometry on the go, it's also available

as a podcast. Take care. you soon, guys. On the really big, broad historical context, yeah, we're witnessing the end of empire, aren't we?