TRIGGERnometry - Ex-Putin Advisor: "He Must Be Stopped"

Episode Date: March 24, 2022

Andrey Illarionov is an economist and former economic policy advisor to the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin from April 2000 to December 2005.  For more from Andrey, follow him on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/andrei.illarionov.7) or read his LiveJournal Blog (https://aillarionov.livejournal.com/). Sponsored by *Lost Debate* YouTube show and podcast. New Lost Debate episodes drop twice a week. Search for The Lost Debate on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. Join our exclusive TRIGGERnometry community on Locals! https://triggernometry.locals.com/ OR Support TRIGGERnometry Here: https://www.subscribestar.com/triggernometry https://www.patreon.com/triggerpod Bitcoin: bc1qm6vvhduc6s3rvy8u76sllmrfpynfv94qw8p8d5 Buy Merch Here: https://www.triggerpod.co.uk/shop/​​​ Advertise on TRIGGERnometry: [e-mail] Join the Mailing List: https://www.triggerpod.co.uk/sign-up/​​​ Find TRIGGERnometry on Social Media:  https://twitter.com/triggerpod​​​ https://www.facebook.com/triggerpod​​​ https://www.instagram.com/triggerpod​​​ About TRIGGERnometry:  Stand-up comedians Konstantin Kisin (@konstantinkisin) and Francis Foster (@francisjfoster) make sense of politics, economics, free speech, AI, drug policy and WW3 with the help of presidential advisors, renowned economists, award-winning journalists, controversial writers, leading scientists and notorious comedians. - Chapters: 00:00 Intro 02:28 How Rational Is Putin? 04:44 What Is Putin's Rationale for the Invasion? 06:47 What It Was Like to Work for Putin 09:58 Putin’s Contradiction: Economic Prosperity vs Imperialist Ambition 12:02 Debate: Did NATO Provoke Russia? 19:51 Why the West Didn’t See It Coming 22:52 Why Sanctions Won't Stop the War 32:19 Psychological Warfare and Nuclear Blackmail 36:06 "Biden Will Do Nothing to Defend Europe" 39:04 How Should Europe Support Ukraine? 48:02 China's Role 49:54 Sanctions: Economic Consequences 55:45 Appeasement Won't Work With Putin 58:49 Why We Must Take Putin's Threats Seriously  01:01:03 Would This Have Happened if Trump Was in Power? 01:06:26 Did the Election of Biden Encourage Putin? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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He's repeating, not only in December last year, but in January this year, in February this year, my goal is to have Baltic countries, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. They're repeating that right now. So why I should not believe Mr. Putin? Hello and welcome to Trigonometry. I'm Francis Foster. I'm Constantine Kissen. And this is a show for you if you want honest conversations with fascinating people.

Our brilliant guest today is a former economic advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Andrei Lerionov, welcome to Trigonometry. Well, thank you for inviting me. Hello. It's such a pleasure to have you on the show. Many of our audience will be familiar with your background and who you are, but for those of them who are not, please tell everybody who are you, how are you where you are? What has been your journey through life that leads you to be sitting here talking to us?

All right. Life is long, so I will not have enough time to discuss all my life. But essentially, I'm economist by training, and I spend more. of my time by being economist in writing economic staff and advising on economic policy. It happened that I spent some time about six years advising Mr. Putin as an economic advisor to the Russian president. I also been a Russian share part of G8 club of the most developed and then democratic countries at least Some of them still democratic, one of them already not.

In year 2005, after serious, series of serious conversations with my former boss, I resigned from both of my positions as Russian Sherpa and advisor. after that in some time I left Russia and now I'm living in the United States working for the center for security policy and I also spend some time in Ukraine working for the Ukrainian Institute for Future so it's my short story

fantastic well we are going to draw on your economic expertise in a moment but one of the questions I think a lot of quote quite normal people are asking at the moment is they're trying to establish how rational Vladimir Putin is. There's a sort of a mad Vlad narrative that's emerging in the West among some people. So before we get into the economics, the sanctions, the war, the military situation, what is your assessment of President Putin's mental state?

You've seen some of the speeches that he's given that seem quite belligerent and so on. What do you make of that conversation, first of all? I don't buy that description that you have mentioned before. So he's pretty rational person, probably he's the most rational person that ever met in my life. And he continues to be as so. He's very calculated. He's very determined and he's accurately balancing when he tried to portray himself as a so-called, if you use this word, mad.

But that is just for producing some impression. on weak people, especially my leaders of the Western countries. Some Western leaders like to be feared. And Mr. Putin knows that, and that is why he plays the game or plays the show with them. He pretend to be mad and they pretend to be feared. So that's exactly what both sides would like to do. So when Putin pretend to be mad and threatening with his, nuclear blackmail. So some people like President Biden prefers to believe him or some European

leadership. No, no, no, no, we cannot participate in any serious resistance to Mr. Putin. So that is why, okay, let's be fearful and do nothing. That's exactly what meeting point wants. So that is why he's very, very rational and calculated. And speaking of rational calculated, the obvious question and people are trying to answer for themselves in the last couple of weeks. You were talking since 2014 about the fact that there would be a full-scale war. I've been talking since 2014. I have far less expertise than you, but it was quite obvious to me also. What if Putin is such a rational person, explain to our Western audience,

what is the rationale for his invasion? Is it NATO expansion? Is it his own expansionist desires? is it other things? Why has he done this? He is rational, but he's rational not in our sense, so not in a sense of civilized people who would like to live in peace and democracy with the rule of law. He's a Russian in a sense of being imperialist.

So he started to talk about Kiev as his wet dreams, as we used to say in Russia, from year to 2001. So already for 21 years. So, and for these more than two decades, he has written so many texts. He has made so many statements. All of them were devoted to Ukraine and to Kiev.

So that is why he never hid it his intentions to establish control over Ukraine, to capture Kiev. And his statement about the Ukraine does not write to be an independent state. So that is why it's not too hard to predict that he would do something. Moreover, he started to do something like these aggressive actions from year 2003. And that is why it was year 2003 in the Strip Tuzla in the Strait of Kerch. In year 2008, he proclaimed in conversation with George Bush Jr. that Ukraine does not have right to exist.

In year 2014, he captured an occupied Crimea and started war in Donbass. And in year 2021, he published a long essay explaining that Ukraine should be put under his control. So it was rather hard not to see what he was doing and what he was saying. Andre, I'll never forgive myself if I don't ask this question, so I have to ask it. What was it like to work for Vladimir Putin? In the UK, we say, would you go for a pint with him? Is Vladimir Putin somebody that you could imagine going to a bar, drinking vodka with? Is he a sociable man?

Does he have another side to him? Or is it what you see is what you get? I never did what you have mentioned right now. I never went to bar with Mr. Putin. I was an economic advisor and I was invited to be an economic advisor. Actually, I've been invited three times because twice I declined his invitation and I agreed only for the third time. And I was working as economic advisor. My idea was to bring economic growth to Russia.

So I was advising on economic policies that would be good, would be necessary to start and to continue very fast economic growth. And I succeeded in that. the 10 years that the policies that I recommended were implemented, the world best period in the Russian economic history. Russian GDP doubled, Russian GDP per capita doubled, and private consumption per capita grew 2.3 times within 10 years. This is one again, once again, it's best economic growth period in the history of the country. So that is why from the professional point of view, it was very productive for me.

It was very productive for 145 million of Russian citizens. And the next question I was going to ask, you've kind of alluded to, do you feel that he was a competent leader? Let's forget about the war in Ukraine. But just when he came to power, do you think he was a competent leader the way you think He ran the country, was effective, particularly when you compare it with former leaders, certainly people like Yeltsin. You need to understand that I did not discuss with him how to attack Ukraine. How many people are that. Right.

I am economist and just, I talk to him on economic policies and state of economy. So, and I found him as a person who is ready to listen and to learn. something that he didn't know. He was really rather unique in this regard compared to other Russian political leaders. And after that, I met many other leaders, including leaders from the West. And he was very unique in this regard

because he tried to understand very complicated issues. And some of them he learned, and some of them he started to implement in his actions, in his policies. And it is one of the explanations. why that period, 10 years period, was such a good from the point of view of economic growth. So it was his contribution to this result, no doubt. It's interesting that there seems, at least to me, and I'm sure you'll explain to me why I'm wrong,

but there seems to be a contradiction of what you're saying. On the one hand, he is the guy who learns, who is smart, who developed, you know, listen to you and other people around him. to deliver things for the Russian people, and he's very rational. Yet at the same time, his imperialist ambitions have taken him to a war in Ukraine, which will hurt Russia, would you not say? No, I completely agree with you. Actually, I came to the same conclusion about 16 or 17 years ago.

That is why I resigned from a position of economic advisor. But initially, when I started to work in the presidential administration, It was quite a shock for me because before that, I thought that those people who would like to have economic prosperity for our own citizens would not do imperialistic policies and they would not destroy democratic constitutions and they would not destroy rule of law. And to my great surprise, because Francis Fukuyama did not explain to us in his end of history. He saw that everything should be in one direction. Everyone who is supporting liberty or democracy and well-being of people, that's just one direction. And all evils will be on the other side. But I was able to see with my own eyes that somebody could be, or just a person with whom I was working for some time,

at the same time is having intentions to improve living. standards of people, that have an economic roles, but at the same time, he's really very serious in destroying liberal institutions, democratic institutions of law, and after that, to start imperialistic wars

at the same time. Let me ask you, Andrea, if I may, I asked you about NATO expansion, and we didn't quite address it. There are people like John Myersheimer or Vladimir Posner or there are others who say the reason that this has happened is the West, particularly NATO, pushed closer

to the borders of Russia. Vladimir Posner, for example, would say that Putin wanted to work with the West. He wanted Russia to join NATO. He wanted all poor, you know, fluffy Mr. Putin wants is for the NATO not to have its missiles and troops on its borders. You know, Ukraine is the equivalent of Mexico for the United States. And expanding NATO into that area is very threatening to Russia, and that's the reason all of this is happening. What do you say to them? You know, it's very interesting and what you're asking for, and especially because these two presentations, two shows of both John Mischheim and Vladimir Posner became a viral due to policies of YouTube, because I saw both of those shows some time ago when there was just several tens of

thousands people watched it but after the policy of youtube that recommended everywhere and to everybody the number of people who were forced to watch those shows uh right up to 20 million or something like that so that is why it's a particular policy of our platform our youtube platform uh to force people to watch these two shows which from my point of view are completely wrong they wrong wrong wrong in their assumptions, they're wrong in their attitudes. To be correct, I would say, both of them, at least John Misham is definitely, he belongs to the same class of thinkers

who prefer to see empires in these worlds, who does not give right of small nations, of small countries to be independent. He's thinking, it's actually a very, I would say rather spread, rather popular view among some political thinkers that not every country deserves to be independent. And there are some small countries

that should go under the so-called umbrella of superpowers. Andrew, I'm sorry to interrupt. But isn't that true, though? I mean, look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, for example. Did Cuba really have sovereignty when the Soviet Union tried to move its nuclear missiles onto Cuba.

The United States said, we don't care about your sovereignty. We care about our security. Isn't that John Maersheimer would argue that's what Vladimir Putin is doing? Okay, but it was in 1962. It was 60 years ago. We're living in yet in 2022.

So, and after end, it was actually mid of the Cold War. And in 91, Cold War was a thing. officially declared finished. So the Soviet Union disintegrated was apoxies to exist. And there were the possibility, actually, that was claimed by many people, including by Francis Fukuyama, whom I mentioned and many others,

but okay, yes, during the Cold War, during the World War, that's a World War, and in many regions of the world, it was a hot war. So after the finish of three World Wars, first, second, and the Cold War, it is possible for small nations or medium-sized nations to be really independent, to have real sovereignty, because nobody should threaten them. So that is what is something happened in the past. Okay, we can find many historical examples before the First World War, second World War, and Cuba will be not the only one.

But we are living in the 21st century. And nobody should use the instruments of the 19th century, or 18th century, or even the first half of 20th century, against neighbors, against small countries. Why Ukraine or any other country could not live like a Luxembourg or Switzerland? Luxembourg and Switzerland are smaller nations than Ukraine. Nobody threatened Luxembourg and Switzerland from neighbors. Why Ukraine does not have the same right as Luxembourg?

So I'm just playing devil's advocate here, because emotionally I agree with you very much. I do think that Ukraine should have the right to do and choose any direction that it wants. And I have family in Ukraine and I want them to have the same freedoms and the same quality of life that I do here in London. Of course I do. But on the other hand, if what is perceived as a hostile power to the EU placed its nuclear missiles or attempted to place its bases in Luxembourg, I think other EU countries would be concerned. All I'm getting at with you is, isn't it true to say that, of course, a country like Russia, which perceives the United States as a strategic adversary at best, placing its bases or placing

its missiles on its borders is a concern. And when it happened with Latvia, Stony, Lithuania, et cetera, that was a little bit different because those countries were never in the long history part of the Russian Empire. But Ukraine is different because there's that kind of, you know, emotional element to as well, and it's a much bigger country too. No, but this is it. If there is something that is quite opposite to what has been claimed by devil's advocate or Mr. Putin. Because essentially, Ukraine did not place nuclear missiles on its territory. There was nobody among Ukrainian politicians, among Ukrainian states.

Ukrainian statements, even the public leaders in Ukraine who would ever suggest to placing to deploy nuclear missiles on Ukraine that would threaten Moscow or Russia. No, the case was exactly different. Ukraine in 1994 signed Budapest memorandum, through which Ukraine remove all nuclear weapons that were exactly located on the Ukrainian territory and gave all nuclear weapons to Russia. So that is why if there is a threat, there is a threat from Russia to Ukraine, not from Ukraine to Russia. And actually, there is a constitution of Ukraine in which stated very clear there should be no foreign bases on Ukrainian territory. And there was only one foreign military base on the Ukrainian territory. It was a Russian Navy base in

Sebastopol in Crimea. So that is why if it was a military base, it was a military base, based on the Ukraine. So that is why if there was any threat to anyone, it was a threat from Russia to Ukraine, not why it was worse. And until the very last moment, Ukraine was never played any potential that Ukraine never invited United States or NATO to deploy nuclear missiles or to deploy U.S. troops on Ukrainian territory or deploy U.S. or NATO bases on Ukrainian territory. The majority of Ukrainian population were against NATO membership until Putin attack Ukraine in year 2014, occupying Crimea, occupied Sevastopol, started war in Donbass. So reaction of Ukraine to defend itself,

it is a result of Putin's aggressive policy and his aggressions against Ukraine. Antre, why is it that so many people in the West were shocked when he invaded, and very few people predicted it. Because the West is living in different reality. Many, I would say, Western leaders, political leaders, and Western leaders in a sense of media and public opinion. They really decided that, okay, the life that they are enjoying,

especially in Europe and the Northern America over the last several decades are so good that they prefer to forget or prefer not to see reality beyond Europe's borders or North American borders. And there are thugs in the world that occupying the highest position in power in a number of countries. There are imperialists, they are aggressors, and they are using very different policies and different attitudes and different actions from those people who are living in Europe. Just people pretend to see that that part of the world does not exist. Or if they would preach to some kind of good course or so-called diplomacy, which means doing nothing, that would help to save thousands of lives from attacks of Thaks and

imperialists. They suggest mistakes. And actually, by the way, you asked me before whether Mr. Putin is a rational and whether he understands what's going around the world. Mr. Putin understands very well what is going around the world. But many Western leaders do not. Hey, Francis, do you like podcasts and politics? No, mate, I'm a real man. I'm only interested in football, birds and fast cars.

Last time you tried to drive a car, you had a panic attack when you got a real man. overtaken by a granny. She was driving very aggressively and used disgusting language for a woman of her age. Well, for those of you who do like podcasts and politics, then you have to check out the Lost Debate. It's a podcast and YouTube show for political eclectics who want to escape their media bubbles

and engage in good faith with ideas from across the political spectrum. It's three friends from across the political spectrum discussing the big issues of the day. Ravi's a former Obama staffer and school principal. Corey's a former Fox Radio news host and Ricky's a New York post columnist. Instead of being at each other's throats, they focus on bringing new perspectives to the table in constructive debates

that sound less like crossfire and more like discussions between real people. They sound like us, apart from the whole sound like real people bit. That and they might actually know what they're talking about. Check the lost debate out on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you think the West has done enough in order to support? Ukraine? Or do you think that actually what they should do is they should have put up maybe stronger sanctions, maybe done more, particularly because maybe Putin will then advance and try and take other nations?

The short answer is definitely no. And we can discuss what the West might do. One very basic principles actually is coming from our earlier discussion. is that if tanks are already rolling, they cannot be stopped by sanctions. That's a very simple and not very pleasant lesson to leaders, to public opinion, to regular people, to ordinary people. If already war is started, if bombers are flying, if missiles are shelling cities and killing people and tanks are rolling, you cannot stop them by resolution of United Nations General Assembly. You cannot stop them by sanctions, whatever sanctions will be. Please, let me just remind everybody.

In 1939, the Soviet Union started war against Finland. It is a so-called Soviet Finnish War or Winter War that is known in Finland. A couple of weeks after that, the Soviet Union has been expelled from the League of Nations. The question is, expelling of League of Nations or from the United Nations is, if it would be today, whether it stopped Stalin to continue his attack on Finland? No, he continued this war for another hundred days. Whether this expulsion from the League of Nation stopped Stalin from occupation of Baltic countries? No, in 1940.

whether that fact stopped Putin, stopped Stalin, it's interesting, it's like a fraud. Fraudence, let's that. Okay, so just whether it stopped Stalin from occupation of Bessarabia, northern Bukovina in 1940, no. And actually, expulsion from the League of Nations, it's a very serious action. So it means that this particular very serious acts that we have seen in the past did not stop, Stalin or Hitler, when he actually he himself left League of Nations. So if the aggressor decides to attack neighbors, membership in any international organizations or sanctions of economic type or transportation or personal sanctions do not play any role,

they would continue this aggression. They would continue their attacks. So that is why it is necessary to change mind of those people who prefer to think once again in those in ideas of sanctions or expulsion or whatever. No, for hardware policies, for hardware attacks, it should be hardware response. Only that can work. It's not a guarantee. And what do you mean by hardware response, Andre?

It means resistance. It means the forceful resistance. Do you know, I mentioned this, Soviet Finnish 4 of 1939, 1940? Do you know when Stalin really stopped the war? When he received information that the British and French troops are embarking on the ships and are going to be shipped to Finland to fight on the Finnish side? As soon as Stalin received this information, he immediately started. called peaceful negotiations and stop the war. Do you know when Putin stopped his attack on Georgia

in year 2008? We know this just not by days. We know it's by hours and minutes. On August 11, in 2008, George Bush Jr. appeared in front of the White House, flanked by his Minister of Defense and assistant on national defense, and proclaimed that he's directing U.S. troops to the region. And immediately, U.S. Navy started to move from Mediterranean to Black Sea, and U.S. Air Force has been deployed to Romania and Turkey to the U.S. bases. Twelve hours after that, Putin stopped attack on Georgia. That's a powerful result of resistance, of a very powerful country in this world,

United States for aggression. I take your point, Andro, it's a hard line and, you know, you argue with it well. What would you say to the people going, hang on a second here, if you start down the part of hardline resistance, your words, I mean, we're on the path to World War III. And the second part of the question, Andre, is you've used the example of Stalin, which again, is a good point. But let's be fair, Stalin didn't have nukes, did he? Okay, Mr. Putin, first of all, Stalin had nukes. But not in 39.

But in 49. Okay, in 49, he already had a nukes. And after that, there was a Korean war. And how Korea have been saved, at least part of Korea have been saved with resistance. with resistance from the United States, United Kingdom, and number of other Western countries who supported and defended South Korea. It's the only way to do it.

And actually, even Stalin did not use nukes in Korean War. What about Mr. Putin? Okay, in year 2008 during Russian Georgian war, Mr. Putin did have nukes. Did he use it when Americans moved their troops into the region? No. What happened in yet? 2015 when the Russian bomber violated Turkish airspace for 40 seconds.

Turkish jet shot down Russian bombers and two people, one of them pilot, have been killed. What was the reaction of Mr. Putin to the action of Turkey, not United States? Turkey just did it alone. What was the reaction? Mr. Putin promised to punish Turkish tomatoes. But he did not. do even that. So after that, none of Russian bombers violated Turkish space anymore. In year 2018, the group of Russian mercenaries were trying to capture the gas plant in

Dera Azor in Syria. What happened after that? Americans with Kurds destroy this group and 200 mercenaries were killed Russian mercenaries. What was the reaction of Mr. Putin? Nothing. Deep silence for four years that continues up today. Putin never mentioned it. He not even used nukes. He never mentioned yukes. He never mentioned this case. What is going right now during this war against Ukraine? What Turkey did? Turkey did something that no other country did. Turkey essentially participated in those war. or on the side of Ukraine. Do you know about that? With drones.

Yeah. No. Drones are very well known. Turkey closed straits, Bosporus and Dardanelles. And the Russian Navy has been left in the Mediterranean and again sea. Those ships, those Navy that could shell and bombat Odessa Nikolaev and other Ukrainian cities.

So Turkey closed the strait, What we hear from Mr. Putin, whether he's threatening to use nukes against Turkey? No. He never mentioned it publicly. So once again, we can see not only in 1939 with Mr. Stalin, not in 2008 with Putin versus Georgia, but right now, today, some countries and some leaders prefer not to be afraid to resist. What is the reaction from Mr. Putin? Nothing. But those leaders who actually plays for Mr. Putin pretend to be afraid, to pretend to be fearful. And that is playing this game with MiG29 from Poland, Slovak, and Bulgaria.

It was the decision of Mr. Biden not to give those jets to Ukrainians because of nukes, because such a threat. Okay, it's a game. It is a game for four hands, as we say in Russia. It's a game of two people. One person is playing a role of the bad cop. Another is playing the role of good cop, but they're playing together against Ukraine. So, okay, I know that a lot of people will be interested in your perspective, and I'm very interested in the perspective you bring. That's not an argument I've really heard much in the Western mainstream media, at least.

But it is quite a scary argument for people. because essentially you're asking us to play chicken with nuclear weapons in the modern age in which the use of nuclear weapons would end all life on Earth. Is that really a risk you think the United States should be taking? It's very strange. Mr. Putin was threatening to use nuke, so he's playing at least in those threats, so many times that those who prefer not to hear what Mr. Putin is doing, just who is realistic, who is understanding what's going on.

Mr. Putin is already using it as a blackmail as a threats. So that is why if you refuse to do it, you're on a big position. So it means you already surrender. In this battle, whatever you can call real war or psychological battle or whatever, just if one side is openly refusing to use some, particular instrument or some particular weapons, it means you're already surrender. Because the other side is ready to escalate. And if you are not ready to escalate, it means you're ready for defeat it. It means you're ready to defeat it. The only way, just, okay, just let's

imagine that we are not playing the geopolitics, but you happen to be in the night or in the evening in the dark corner and some thugs. approaching you with very clear intentions. That's what are they going to do with you or with your friends or with your family? Okay, what is your reaction? Your reaction is it to defend yourself and your close ones or to run. If you are not, if you are going to read Bible to that person or those persons, okay, you probably would not win this battle.

So that is what either you fight. It's not a guarantee that you can. win, but at least you will try. You have a chance. Or if you say, oh, I'm not going to use my force. I'm going to read good book to that person. Okay, what is going to happen? You will be in a very bad position. Okay. I think it's probably an obvious simplification, but it doesn't matter. Let's get into your specific. By the way, it's the same, absolutely same story. This is a psychological warfare. If leaders of the country refuse to use the instruments and the weapons in their disposal,

so it means they don't have them. Just if you do not use nukes, even your imaginative some kind of possession, so it means you don't have it. It means that just you are in a position of Luxembourg. You are not United Nations. You are not United States. You are not United States. You are not United Kingdom.

You're just Luxembourg or Switzerland or Finland. Yeah, but the fact that nuclear war can end all life on Earth, I think, plays very much into making it a bigger issue than just you being mugged for your money by a thug in the street. That's exactly the point that Mr. Putin is using. Because, okay, because you are thinking in that particular approach, okay, just in this particular line, okay, and he's a very different one. That's exactly the point. You're ready, ready to be defeated. You're ready to be... I hear you.

I'm ready to be defeated. So explain this to me. What are your policy prescriptions in this moment? How should the United States? Because let's be clear, Britain, France, Germany, they can all do things. But at the end of the day, it is up to the United States.

It's the most powerful country in the world by far. It's a decision maker on these issues. What would you have America do right now? That's another mistake, by the way. Constantine. Because we are accustomed to think about the United States of the most powerful country in this world. And that is why people just tend to believe, okay, so we cannot do anything. Just let's wait until US President would do something. We are in a position right now, especially with arrival of new American President 14 months ago, in the situation where United States

at least under the current administration, is going to do anything in defense of freedom, democracy, and lives of million people around the world. And for the first time, since 1949, since the foundation of NATO, the Western countries, free countries, free world, found itself in a position that they need to act without the United States.

because the current US administration would do nothing, almost nothing, for defense of Europe. And Europe woke up, especially over the last four weeks, in a situation that if Europe itself or European countries would not act by themselves, so they are risking to be attacked next time by Putin, if he will be able. To win in Ukraine, it is absolutely clear that he will not be stopped. He will go further. And his goals are already known. He issued this ultimatum to NATO, to the West, to the United States, to Europe. In December last year, on December 17th he published two so-called draft treaties in which he proclaimed his goal is so-called returning to 1997 division line in Europe, which with the so-called denatioization of Central and Eastern Europe, which means, and actually they mentioned those countries, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria,

should stop to be members of NATO. and it is not only denatization, it is demilitarization of those countries. It is a text of these documents. That's true, and I've read those texts, Andre. So that being the case, what should Europe do in this situation, in your opinion? Right now, as we understand, the strongest army on the European continent is Ukrainian one. It's a kind of, it became known of the last four. weeks. And the Ukrainian nation is resisting this attack and this is the strongest ally of Europe in this battle against tyranny, against despotism. So that is why it's not only due to humanitarian reasons, it is necessary to support Ukraine, but it isn't just for genuine European interest to do everything possible and impossible. That's

the Putin's aggression against Ukraine will be the last one for Putin. So that is why Europe, European countries, with the United States or without United States, doesn't matter, need to do everything just to support and to defend Ukraine. And now we can discuss what exactly Europe can do. But this is a very important mental point. Europe should not allow Ukraine to be subjugated. by Kremlin's master. Okay, great.

I am with you 100%. How? Right. Crucial point now is no fly zone, as we all know. And President Zelensky said it in all his conversation with Western leaders, in his statements to the UK Parliament,

to the U.S. Congress, to anyone. So just help us to close the sky. It can be done in different ways. Certainly the best way is NATO would pronounce no fly zone over Ukraine. That would be the best solution. Okay, NATO is scared. It is not Turkey. Turkey alone can do whatever they like and actually they shot Russian bombers in the Turkish sky without any problem.

But NATO is much smaller and weaker than Turkey alone. NATO cannot do it. Okay, but NATO can provide Ukraine with anti-air weapons, with anti-missile weapons, with many other weapons, with heavy military equipment that Ukraine needs, and Ukraine is splitting to provide them with all these weapons. And Europe does not provide that weapons that Ukraine needs at this moment. Actually, United Kingdom is in a very particular position. United Kingdom is leading the so-called Jeff, joint expeditionary force.

It is a group of 10 countries led by the UK. So it is expeditionary force. These Jeff can deploy their troops in, let's say, west of Ukraine. It's not necessary for a Jeff to participate in the battles. No, Jeff would participate in peacekeeping missions. They would provide support for humanitarian convoys bringing Ukrainians to Europe. They could provide security for those convoys with military equipment to Ukraine. They would not participate in the battles.

They would be just over there, just physically present. And actually, it would be another deterrent to Mr. Lukashenko, who is still thinking whether to participate in aggression against Ukraine or not. And actually, that would be substantial real help of Europe, UK, and Jeff to Ukraine. But isn't that really where people's concern in the West comes from? Because I hear what you're saying, and I want to defend people in Ukraine from Russian aggression as much as you do. But what happens if NATO shoots down a Russian plane, or what happens if Russia, as it has done already, bombs Western Ukraine to destroy bases for training or whatever? And it's killing British, American, or other European countries, soldiers. Isn't that taking us on the road to World War III, which no one wants and no one can afford?

No, first of all, the World War III, to some extent, has been announced, proclaimed by Mr. Putin. So that is why if the West is still don't hear that, it's a problem of the West, not of the reality. But the best way to stop these particular war from evolving into real sword world war is just to participate in that particular actions and to stop these war, to defend Ukraine. Because if Ukraine is defended, so this potential third world war will be stopped right now and right there. in Ukraine. But if it is not stopped, it can evolve and can spread to other countries, including Europe. This is a basic lesson of the Second World War. If Hitler would be stopped in Czechoslovakia, he would not go to Poland. If he would be stopped in Poland, he would not go to France. That's a very basic lesson. We are dealing with the same issue. If Putin has not been stopped in

Georgia, he went to Ukraine. If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, he would go further. Same story. Andre, do you not worry that what Putin has effectively done here is he's backed himself into a corner by deciding to invade Ukraine. And as a result, he can't lose. He just can't lose. So if we start pushing up against him and if we start shooting down Russian planes, then what effectively happens is not only antagonizing, it means that his presidency becomes more destabilized, which means he's therefore more likely to do something rash because he feels his actual position and life is under threat. No. You know what will happen if NATO or Jeff or another coalition of Western countries would declare no flight on over Ukraine and would

provide necessary resources to secure this no-fly zone. It will be the last day. The Russian jets would appear in the Ukrainian sky. It will be a lot of statements from Kremlin. It will be not very nice words whether we hear, but in terms of actions, there will be none, as it was in the case of Turkey, that not only declared no-fly zone over Turkish,

space airspace but effectively shot down the Russian bomb. In Tokyo closed the strait of Basporos. There was nothing no reaction for that. Same story will be in this case. Russian place will stop to fly in the Ukrainian sky. Simple. Mr. Putin as you've seen him, he never did anything that comes from this particular pattern. He's so much afraid for his life as we can we have seen. But he has distance for 10 meters when he is meeting French president or his assistants or his ministers. How such a person could start a third world war, real third world war with nukes if he's so much afraid for his personal life? Do you have a website or do you plan to have a website? Because if you do, then EasyDNS is a company for you.

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Sign up for their newsletter, Access of Easy, which tells you everything you need to know about technology, privacy and censorship. What is the role of China playing all of this, Andre? Because initially there were some people worried that China was going to invade Taiwan, Do you think that will happen? Or do you think that because of West has done more than we anticipated, that's made the Chinese think twice? No, first of all, it's better to ask Chinese. I cannot talk on behalf of the Chinese leadership.

Okay, what are they going to do? But from what we are what we know and from we are getting some kind of additional information, Chinese leadership is not happy with what we are. Mr. Putin is doing in Ukraine and how he's doing. So that is why that gave them a very unpleasant lesson, what might happen if China would try to conquer Taiwan with military means. Such an ugly picture does not attract Chinese leadership. And that is why you could easily see the changes in the lexics,

in these discussions on the part part of Chinese leadership compared to just few months ago when Xi was telling to Biden that Taiwan will be taken anyway. But now they know only peaceful means. Chinese is very interesting civilizations and interesting leadership, at least for the moment. It does not look like that they are ready to undertake adventure, similar to what Mr. Putin is doing in Ukraine. And Francis, you want to ask about sanctions as well, didn't you? Yes.

So, Andre, one thing that I really wanted to talk about, as Constantine alluded to, was the sanctions question. Now, the West have imposed some pretty strict sanctions. You've said that in the short term, that's going to make no real difference to the war in Ukraine, or no difference at all, should I say. What about the long term, Andre? Will that ultimately weaken and destabilize Putin's regime because Russia is going to run out of money? Or does it make no difference at all? Okay, first of all, we have a historic experience with sanctions introduced against some other countries,

against Iran, against South Africa, against North Korea, against Cuba. What was the result of all those sanctions? whether we have seen any changes in political regime of those countries, not a single case. And each of those countries is much smaller than Russia, incomparably smaller, incomparably weaker. So if that did not happen, if such result did not happen in any of those cases, what is the basis to expect that all those sanctions would lead in short term, in medium term, and long term with Russia? Just not. There is no basis for that. But actually, the West did not introduce even serious sanctions against Russia.

For example, against Iran, the West introduced embargo, oil embargo. Total oil embargo. Okay, where you can see. oil or gas embargo against Russia. No, we don't see it. So that is why there is no real sanctions against Russia for the moment. There are some, but not really serious one, because the more serious one would be sanctions against oil and gas expert from Russia.

And nobody even talking about that. But even in this case, it would reduce the potential economic potential for new aggressions. I would agree with that. But it would not change the type of thinking of Mr. Putin in his entourage. Andrew, sorry to jump in your conversation with France, but Britain and America have said they won't be buying Russian oil or gas. I understand they're small customers, the few percentage of the total.

But they have said that. So there has been a little bit of movement on that, hasn't it? No, but it's not embargo. It's, I mean, just, okay, United States. States that is buying whatever, 1% or 2% of the Russian oil, stop to do it. Okay, what is it? Embargo's embargo. It means that just the Western countries or countries that do participate in these policies

proclaim that no one can buy Russian oil and Russian gas. And they were ready to introduce sanctions against anyone who is trying to participate in such a trade. So it's just a very far from this. You as an economic expert, you spent a long time helping Russia rebuild its economy and get on its feet. And as you said yourself, you were successful in that. How do you assess the sanctions that are currently in place? What will be their impact on Russia's economy and on the regime?

Okay. The result, actually, the most serious sanctions that have been introduced by the Western countries is the freezing assets of the Central Bank of Russia. This is probably the most important step and with actually rather short-term consequences. Because this particular step essentially killed exchange rate market in Russia and deprived companies and persons and the government from foreign exchange. Now, foreign exchange is a Russian in Russia. In Russia, just not more than $5,000, can be given. to is it a private person or to company, but also for six months. And actually even that amount is not available.

So that is why it's a single most important act that have been taking recently. What will be next? Okay, there will be a crisis. There will be depression. Business activity already down by 18%. The forecast for inflation this year would be 60 to 70%. There is a very important actually fact is exodus of private companies from Russia. This is probably even more important than the decisions taken by governments.

The private sector that actually nobody directed them, nobody gave them orders, but many of the companies, foreign companies, international companies, decided to leave Russia regardless of their investments for last three days. decades in Russia, saying that, okay, they cannot stay in Russia under current circumstances. And this is the problem of the most important medium to long-term impact on Russian economy. So Russia economy will come back to by the level maybe to the 1990s in terms of international isolation to the period of Soviet Union. Okay, but it would not change calculation of Mr. Putin.

would not change his type of thinking. He will not change his intentions to wage war against neighbors. So that is why you need to have some instruments and use those instruments. I mean, I find what you're saying really interesting, Andre, because the prevailing narrative in the West

has been that we don't get involved, we don't escalate tensions. Do you think that's a situation? sign that we've gone soft? It is a sign that you're going to so-called Chamberlain type policy of 1938. That time it was called appeasement. And it was, to some extent, understood because it was the first time in the history. And second, it was under the First World War where Britain and France lost hundreds of

thousands of their men. And that is why the main narrative was to do everything possible and possible to avoid another World War. But, okay, Mr. Hitler and Mr. Stalin did have different attitudes and different ideas, and they were exploding these so-called pacifistic attitudes of British and French leaders for their favors. So we are dealing exactly or almost with a very similar situation right now. So Britain, France, many other European countries saying, okay, we would like not to be in Okay, Britain also did not want to be involved in Czechoslovakia affairs, or so that and land crisis, or to some kind of two, with Anschluss of Austria, with Anschluss of Mehmed. Okay, what happened after that?

And after that happened the Second World War with Bombing of London, of Coventry, and with war arrived to the British soil. So if you do not stop war in some other places, war. will come to you, to your homes and to your people. Are you optimistic, Andre, that this will be solved, that finally the West will stand up in the manner that you wish? Or do you think Putin is going to keep infringing, he's going to keep moving forward, and eventually war is inevitable? It depends on the decision of Western leaders.

It depends on decision of European leaders. It's not depends on me. It depends on the decision of Western leaders. If they would participate right now with the hardware policies and they will be able to defend Ukraine, yes, there is a very high chance that it will be the last invasion and last aggression from Putin. But if they won't do it,

there is a very high probability that the war will come to them, to their houses. And is that really true? Look, let's say for the sake of argument that, and again, I'm playing devil's advocate because what you're saying resonates with a lot of my commentary in recent weeks, but I'm trying to understand my position and your position into stress tester. So I know you're taking it in that spirit anyway. Let's say Ukraine succumbs to Putin.

He takes over. He, you know, he installs a puppet government, et cetera. do you really are you really trying to tell people in the west that Putin would then attack a NATO country knowing full well that NATO has now taking the situation seriously and that NATO would respond and NATO may strike back even with nuclear weapons if it feels that it has to

are you really saying he's going to try and connect Kalinengrad for example through Lithuanian Latvia in that way probably you've heard these stories from survivors of Nazi concentration camps. At least they became relatively popular. If somebody threatens to kill you, take it seriously. Do not think that's a joke.

Once again, it's not from me, from survivors of Nazi concentration camps. Now we have a person who repeating again and again and again, again, he is going to come to the 1997 division line. He's repeating not only in December last year, but in January this year, in February this year, on March 8 and 9th, it's already two weeks after launching his attack on Ukraine. He's repeating and then again, my purpose is denatization of Europe. My goal is to return NATO to 1997 division line. My goal is to have to have a new notices of Europe. My goal is to

have Baltic countries, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. They're repeating that right now. So why I should not believe Mr. Putin? For the reason that you gave earlier, which is you said he is the most rational person you've ever met, and it's clearly an irrational act to attack a nuclear alliance, isn't it? No, looking what is a response from the current US administration, it's no doubt for me that if Putin moved to Baltic countries, there will be no response from NATO, at least from NATO under the current US administration. No. And that is why Putin is Russian so much, because he needs to finish all his business before year 2024. It is absolutely clear because he was actually very quiet when there was another US president. He was very quiet.

Let me ask you the obvious question. Bush and under Trump. What would this have happened if Trump was in power? No, because under Trump, the Russian mercenaries have been destroyed in Syria. And after that, surprise, surprise, there was no any provocations on the Russian side in Syria. And in Ukraine, there was a substantial decline in hostilities. And even there was so-called the not amisties, but there was a very substantial decline. in shootings in the line in Donbass.

Everything has changed on January 21st, yet 2021. Next day after Biden became U.S. president, the shootings, the number of shootings increased 10 times. The number of Ukrainian military being killed in Donbass increased 10 times. And exactly from that moment, Putin started to mass his troops on the Ukrainian. border. It did not happen under Trump. It happened with Mr. Biden. So that is why Putin understands very well that he has a window of opportunity until Biden is the president of the United States. So that is why he would try to do everything possible and impossible within this short period of time until at least 2024. And, Andre, do you think that the debacle in Afghanistan influenced Putin's

thinking, watching what the U.S. did, watching how they messed it up, the complete disaster, do you think that just solidified his decision? No, it was just additional element in his thinking, because once again, I mentioned this. Putin has started to act actively against Ukraine and other direction from January 21st, 2021 before Deepakle in Afghanistan. Because Putin knew Mr. Biden very well, because Mr. Biden traveled to Moscow, even in Soviet times, in 1978. And during the meeting with his friends from the Politburo of Central Committee of Communist Party,

Mr. Biden betrayed Russian Soviet dissidents. It is on the record. Mr. Bukovsky in his archive actually put all these documents. on website. You can read them, both in Russian and English. So that is why the position of Mr. Biden towards Soviet dissidents in 78, to South Vietnamese in 75,

to Kurds later, is very well known. Mr. Biden, it is his position through all his life. So that is why Afghans were not first nations that have been betrayed by him, and Ukrainians is not the first nations. There are many others before that case. So that is why it was not hard to predict what kind of policies and what kind of actions will be from Mr. Biden.

So that is why Putin started to act on January 21st. And what happened with Afghanistan only reinforced his thinking because he said it was exactly that we expected. And you remember, by the way, it was not only debacle in Afghanistan. After what happened in Afghanistan, what happened? Mr. Biden asked Mr. Putin to deploy American troops in Central Asian countries, in Tajikistan, in Kyrgyzstan, in Uzbekistan. What a shock United States president is asking, is requesting the international attack and

aggressor to deploy American troops in the third countries. that's it's a kind of it's confirmation of the imperial type of thinking already not only in part of mr Putin but on the part of mr. Biden because mr. Biden is thinking in the type of sphere of influences it already gave central Asia to sphere of influence of Putin and that is why he was asking Putin for permission how it is possible that united States president would be discussing with anybody else except of the leadership of these particular countries, whether it's possible or not possible. This is a reflection of sphere of influences in Mr. Biden's mind and in the minds of his colleagues. Well, Ander Nikolich, it's been a brilliant

interview. Thank you so much for your time. We're going to ask you a couple of questions from our local supporters that only they will see. But before we do, we've got about three or four minutes. Normally we say what's the one thing we're not talking about as a society that we should be. But in your case, I think you have such an interesting and very different perspective to most people. What else should people know about Russia and Ukraine, the current situation? What haven't we discussed? What is really important for people to understand about this situation that you think isn't being talked about enough? There are many things to talk about, but just probably one of the topics that we just touched a little bit would be useful.

for our audience. We need to understand that Mr. Putin was able to act so aggressively and so cynically and so rudely only if there is a support from some Western capitals. If such support touched it, hidden, support did not exist, Putin would never attack Ukraine and thousands of people would never be killed. That people should understand. And the basis and the root. of this thought of support for Mr. Putin

is exactly this particular type of thinking. Sphere of influences. It's exactly what you mentioned. You remember when you reminded about John Mishmeyer in his thinking. It's exactly this school of so-called international relations or diplomacy. And it is exactly the school of thought

that has been shared by Mr. Biden, by Mr. Burns, CIA directed by Mr. Blinken, the State Secretary of, the United States and the current youth administration. This is a root. This is a problem. This is a problem on the West.

And that is why the YouTube is spreading these statements from John Mishmire or Vladimir Posner and so on. This is a school of thought that deprive independent nations from their sovereignty, from their independent choice, whether they would like to develop and to join Western Union or whether they would like to be within civilization or they would be under the boat from Kremlin or any other dictator. Thank you so much for your time. It's been a real pleasure. If people want to follow more of your commentary,

where is the best place to do that? Okay, I'm writing regularly on my blog in LiveJournal.com. A.ilaryonov. dot livejournal.com and also Facebook myself, Andrea O'Lerionov, 7. Okay, so just

welcome. We'll make sure to get the links in the description of the video. We thank you for now and we thank all our audience for watching and listening and we will ask you a couple of questions for our supporters in a second. But with that, thank you so much. Thanks for watching. We'll see you very soon with another brilliant interview like this one.

And they always go out Wednesdays and Sundays or Raw Show. go out on Thursdays, Fridays and Saturdays. And for those of you who like your trigonometry on the go, it's also available as a podcast. Take care and see you soon, guys. How likely is a palace coup that would remove Vladimir Putin from power?