TRIGGERnometry - Live Reaction to Makerfield By-Election with Dan Hodges and Julia Hartley-Brewer

Episode Date: June 19, 2026

The by-election results that could trigger a Labour leadership crisis, with Andy Burnham, Keir Starmer, and Reform UK all with stakes in the result. *Trade on what happens next with Kalshi. Trade $10 with code TRIGGER and receive $10 free. http://kalshi.com/r/TRIGGER Triggernometry is proudly independent. Thanks to the following sponsor for making that possible: - Go to https://Sheath.com. Use code TRIGGERNOMETRY for 20% off Join our exclusive TRIGGERnometry community on Substack! https://triggernometry.substack.com/ OR Support TRIGGERnometry Here: Bitcoin: bc1qm6vvhduc6s3rvy8u76sllmrfpynfv94qw8p8d5 Shop Merch here - https://shop.triggerpod.co.uk/ Advertise on Triggernometry: https://trigger-brands.com | or enquire at [e-mail] Find TRIGGERnometry on Social Media: https://twitter.com/triggerpod https://www.facebook.com/triggerpod/ https://www.instagram.com/triggerpod/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Look, I spend a lot of time telling you what's wrong with the world, so let me tell you about something that's actually right. Sleep, specifically getting more of it, better quality, the kind where you wake up and feel like a human being, rather than someone who's been thrown down a staircase. Most mattresses are just layers of synthetic foam and crossed fingers. You're spending a third of your life on the thing, and most people have no idea what's actually in it.

Avicardo green mattress is different. Their mattresses are certified organic, built from natural materials, designed to actually support your body properly rather than just hold you in one position until morning. The craftsmanship is real. These are mass-produced objects. Someone has put thought into them. I'll be honest. I'm not the person who thinks carefully about where he sleeps.

My dating history will tell you that. I'm the person who's been on the same mattress for eight years and called it fine. But the older I get, the more I notice that fine isn't actually fine. Your body tells you, if you're going to invest in anything for your home, your bed is the one that pays you back every single night. Avocado products are made, not manufactured, and thoughtfully crafted with real materials to deliver lasting comfort and support.

Go to avocadogreenmatress.com slash trigger to check out their mattress and furniture sale. That's avocadogreenmatress.com slash trigger. Avocado green mattress.com slash trigger. Gentlemen, we need to talk about underwear. Specifically the fact that most of it is, frankly, designed by people who are not concerned with what normal working guys actually need from their underwear. I'm talking about sheath, S-H-E-A-T-H-H-E-A-T-H-H-E-H-E-H-E-H-E-H-Eth-Th-Ethewthewscithewscent. What that means in plain English, everything stays where it should be.

No sticking, no chafing, no shifting around mid-sentence while trying to maintain an air of gravitas. The fabric breathes, the design separates. there is apparently a technical term for what this creates, and that term is Zen-like separation, which sounds ridiculous and is also completely accurate. It was developed by a veteran on his second tour, which means it was designed under conditions where comfort was not a luxury. Over 10,000 five-star reviews from people who are not messing about,

and I'll be honest, the difference to my day-to-day comfort is bigger than I'm comfortable telling you about on a politics podcast. If you know, you know. Go to sheath.com. S-H-E-A-T-H-com. Use code trigonometry at checkout for 20% off. First pair comes with a full money-back guarantee, so there's no reason not to try them.

Sheath.com. Once you sheath, you won't go back. Sheath.com. Something had gone structurally wrong with Britain. We are a state which has turned against its people. All three parties of the right are realizing that they're not dealing with a series of separate problems. You're dealing with a single central issue,

which is that the British state has stopped working. We are genuinely, I think, at a moment, I would argue of a national crisis which is comparable only for the First and Second World Wars. There has to be a reunion of the right, and that the only basis for that reunion is policy. But they're fighting each other. And I despair.

If Britain survives. Why did you say that? Because I think it is possible that it won't. Hello everybody and a very warm welcome to Trigonometry. The only show on YouTube where you're going to get an underwear advert followed by an interview with an eminent historian talking about why Britain is screwed. We're joined tonight to analyse the by-election, Makerfield by-election, which Andy Burnham overwhelmingly won by-werellowing. by two brilliant broadcaster, Julia Hartley Brewer and journalist Dan Hodges. Welcome to you both.

Wonderful to have you on. Dan, before we go to July, you were on the ground during the by-election, talking to people there. What did you hear? What did people say to you? And why do you think Andy Burnham secured the overwhelming result that he did? Well, I think there are a number of things. I mean, Andy Burnham won the by-election because he was out. Andy Burnham, not because he was Andy Burnham the Labor candidate.

I mean, as he said, I mean, I spent the best part of a month up there. And if you like, the Burnham effect was, was real. Roughly half of the people in the constituency seemed to know Andy Burnham personally. And the other half thought they knew him personally. and it was noticeable yesterday just sort of being outside polling stations. I had people saying to me I voted reform. I had some people saying I voted restore. And then I'd have people saying I voted for Andy.

So firstly there was a very, very clear. There was a very strong personal vote for him. And I think that will be significant moving forward because I think, it does raise questions about the extent to which the obviously incredibly successful campaign that was waged by him in Makerfield can be transported to other parts of the United Kingdom. I mean, the other obvious factor was that this was a by-election that to all intents and purposes was primarily a referendum on Keir Stama. And as we know, the people of Britain have made their minds up about Keir Stama months and

months ago and you know Andy Burnham's strategy of saying vote for me today and I'll get rid of Kirstarmer on on Friday or basically next week was obviously very successful at the ballot box and as we can see it playing out today seems also to be successful in terms of broader politics but the other thing was and I you know I'm sure we'll get into this I think first I think there was also an element of that this was a referendum more broadly across the constituency on Nigel Farage, his offer and reforms offer. And I think what we've seen cemented in Makerfield is something that we've seen, and I think we've seen developed, developing for a considerable period now,

which is the shine is definitely coming off Nigel Farage and reform. And coupled with that, we are now starting to see quite organized, quite sophisticated, quite active anti-reform coalition that is developing in constituencies across the country. And I think that has also has very significant implications for our politics moving forward. Well, to your point, the left was almost the left-wing vote was almost entirely given to Andy Burnham in this election. The Greens got nothing. The lip-downs basically didn't even register from what I could see on the different charts, etc. But I was going to ask you, you talked to a lot of people when you're on the ground.

What surprised you the most hearing from people just talking to ordinary people who were voters in this constituency? Well, I'll be honest, I wasn't massively surprised because I thought, I mean, I wasn't one of the people who thought, you know, this was a, this was a nip and tuck, you know, going to be a type by-election. from the first few days I was there, it seemed to me there was a strong move behind Andy Burnham. I mean, I think what surprised me was, to all intents and purposes, at the beginning of the contest, if you walked around the constituency, and obviously I'd been walking around similar constituencies, just a few weeks before in the local elections, it kind of had the feel, of a what I would call a traditional reform constituency.

You know, all the issues that you know, you've obviously articulated on this program, and we've all talked about before, about, you know, post-industrial northern sort of working class British decline. It's all there in Maker Field. You know, you walk around sections of the constituency and you see significant areas of the constituency,

which have union flags hanging from flagpoles, etc. And when I first arrived there, it seemed to me this was, as I say, you know, fertile ground for reform. And indeed, you know, to all intents and purposes, reform were maybe favourites for the seat. But as I said, it became clear sort of quite early that the Burnham factor, the inversion of the sort of vote for me, reforms vote for us, ditched Starmer message, was very potent, but also, and it was something I did start to pick up in the local elections as well, there are now serious issues for the Reform Project and the Nigel Farage project. Julia, Dan has already touched on this, but let's talk about reform,

because that is a very disappointing result for them, isn't it? Well, Nigel Farage issued a statement on X saying just that, But I mean, it's a point worth making. They got 35% of the vote. I mean, I don't think that's what most people would regard as a disappointing result in a by-election. I mean, it was an extraordinarily big vote for Andy Burnham. But bearing in mind that the two leading candidates, Andy Burnham and Rob Kenyon for the reform, were basically standing on exactly the same platform.

Vote for me. Get rid of Kirste Starmer. The thing about Andy Burnham, as he was offering to do it rather sooner than Rob. to do. I think genuinely, with all due respect to Daniel, it was regular on my show as well, I know him for media, it's a huge respect. I think this is classic Westminster bubble, completely over-interpreting a vote, which was clearly a, he talks normal, he wears a t-shirt, not a tie, not sure that's going to go down very well in number 10 for a lot of voters. He, you know, is a nice guy. He's got charisma. He's, you know, Andy Burnham, you know, he did a great job as a, basically sort of, you know,

waving the flag for the North, for Manchester in particular, obviously during lockdown when the Westminster classes were forgetting how hard life was, in all the various tiers and lockdowns for people outside London. And there's loads of appeal there. The thing everyone forgets is that, you know, he wasn't offering anything other than change. Now, that's what Kirsten Armour offered in 2024 in July.

That year, I mean, coming up to that two year anniversary, And we didn't get much detail in his manifesto. We've got even less from Andy Burnham. People weren't voting for anything. They were voting for Andy Burnham. That doesn't mean they were rejecting reform. The idea that reform won, I think all nine seats that were up for grabs in the local council,

only in May, just a few short weeks ago. But suddenly, no, they've decided they've got no time for reform and Nigel Farage. And it's all over. They've peaked. It's over. It's now back to the two-party system. I think frankly it's a little nonsense.

But Julia, but it must be a concern, surely, because this is the second by-election that reform have come up short. Well, you've got to remember, but again, ostensibly, this is a Labour safe seat, if such exists anymore. Would realistically another Labour candidate that wasn't Andy Burnham and wasn't someone who could be the Prime Minister in, who knows, a few days a week's time, a few months time, would that Labour candidate, whoever they were,

would they have been able to beat reform? And that's the very big question. And this is why this wasn't a victory for Labor. This wasn't a defeat for reform. This was a victory for the candidate who can get rid of Keir Stama, who in this case happens to be Andy Burnham. This is the same as, look, remember in 24, that all the gushing, I mean, the oozing of joy

from a lot of the mainstream broadcasters when they were reported the election result, this amazing, you know, 400 and three, I think, was on the day at Labour MPs, this massive majority for Kirste-Tommer, on, you know, less than 34% of the vote. It wasn't a vote for Kirstehmur and Labour. It was a vote against the Tory governments and their failures. So, again, I just think, I think people can massively over-interpret what this means.

On this given day, people voted to get Kirt Stama out. I'd have probably voted for Andy Burnham in Makerfield if I'd had a vote. Well, there you go. Dan. So go ahead, Francis. Well, you know, there's obviously a lot of things to pick up there. I mean, I think, as I say, Julia is right that it wasn't necessarily an endorsement of Keir Stama's Labour Party. There was, though, a very strong sense amongst the people I was speaking to that Andy Burnham represented a sort of return to a Labour Party that they personally can feel much more comfortable with.

and you can argue whether or not, you know, Labor one or Andy Burnham one. I mean, I don't think you can. It's quite clearly a very significant personal triumph for him. But the one thing that we can also be clear on is in a seat that, you know, Julius talking about, you know, popular Westminster opinion. Conventional Westminster opinion over the last month has been this, this was a by-election that was on a knife edge. that if Andy Burnham was going to win

he was probably going to be because he was gifted the seat by Rupert Lo and Restore and the reality is reform got a pretty big shalacking here you know they didn't even come they didn't even come close I mean I saw I mean I tweeted it before

I saw Matthew Goodwin earlier saying you know this shows you know again shows reform can you know run the establishment parties right to the line I mean, as I said, I mean, you know, reform weren't even in the picture when Andy Burnham got across the line. And I think the issue is, you know, again, I talked about this before. You know, I do think reform, you know, we are starting to see a pattern developing. I mean, remember, let's just sort of invert the issue for a second.

Kirstarmer is, I think, by common consent, one of the most unpopular prime ministers in British political history. I mean, his approval ratings are on such a negative level, they're off the charts. We're midterm. Governing parties never win by-elections mid-term. We came out of a backdrop of local elections in which, you know, Labor were routed. And yet, as I said, again, in a major parliamentary by-election, reform didn't even. come close now i think you know in the moment we can get onto the the broader structural issues that this by-election threw up reforms broader strategy how reform trying to deal with restore

reforms candidate selection again but the reality is you know i've seen this you know again again with respect to julia i've seen lots of people from reform trying to dismiss this reform can dismiss it if they want and reforming can just say oh well you know it doesn't matter it was Andy but it was the Andy Byrne effect yaddy ad yaddy but as I said that there is a fundamental thing that we're starting to see happening now I mean you said about how the left were united against against reform in this in this by-election but there was also there were also significant elements on the right that were also arranged against

reform obviously there's the restore issue what struck me though was the number of Now, obviously there's not a huge conservative vote here, but what was very clear was that there were large numbers of conservative voters who were basically, you know, again, they said it to me on the doorstep, look, never voted Labor in my life. Don't mind Andy Burnham, dislike Kier Stalmer, but I'm not going to have reform representing me in this sea. And that's conservative voters. That's not. Why is it? Why is it? What is it about reform that conservatives are not going to go for in your well i think this is i mean this is a much broader conversation that i hope i hope we can get on to but i think well let's get on to now

well okay there's a number of things before you go along there because i do want to come back on something like that's there about you know this is like a you know governments uh don't win by elections i mean so midterm we've got this much of um unpopularity particularly for the leader but of course i don't think this was uh effectively a government party candidate winning the people who voted for andy burn him the popularity has is because he's not the government he's the anti-government labor figure he's he's the mayor of anton he's almost he's almost completely disassociated from this government he can criticize their policies he's complete it's not responsible for any of the decision-making's any of the u-turns uh any of the abject lack of any activity

to do anything he's he's not being treated as a a representative in any way of this government he's being treated as the alternative to this government, which is why I don't think that thesis quite holds tight. Julia, I think you make a good point, but I think there's one thing I'll object before you jump in, Dan, which is, I think it's fair to say, I don't know, some people are saying reform have peaked. I don't think you can tell until the whole electoral cycle has run its course, of course. But you do see them staying flat in the polls and occasionally dipping. You see them, you know, there may be people within reform who try and put a brave face on it, but I saw a clip of

Nigel Farage saying he was disappointed and then also making an appeal to restore voters saying, guys, come on, if you want a party that's on the right to win elections vote for us. So clearly, I think it's fair to say that the shine is perhaps slightly coming off. And what I'm keen to understand from both of you, and then jump in first, is why is that? Well, I mean, let's let's let's go back. I mean, firstly, just to pick up your point, there is no ambiguity here. polls go up, polls go down. If you look at the polling averages in September of last year, reform broke 30% in the polls. And we all remember that because that was the moment when people

were talking about, you know, a reform majority government was possible. From that moment on, reform have been into a relatively steady decline to the point they're now back down to about 25% in the polls. And I remember last September having a discussion with a number of senior reform sort of figures and they explained to me that they had a strategy for if you like taking reform onto the next level and it was essentially threefold firstly it was to modernize professionalize the party get rid of some of the cranks the loonies the overt racists who had sort of gravitated towards the reform brand the second thing was a very very specific policy which is reform's internal polling showed that whilst Nigel Farage is very popular and

amongst men, he's much less popular amongst women. And to put it simplistically, reform have a woman problem. And the third thing was that they were gonna start to need to set out a serious policy program and prospectus for government. And that was kind of what the backdrop was in the run up to their party conference. I think it was in October that year.

I might be slightly wrong about the day. And I remember turning up to that conference and generally being interested at seeing how this program was going to, you know, this new sort of new reform was going to play out. And frankly, it was a bit, when I got there, it was frankly a bit of a circus. So you had, and I don't want to rehash sort of the old arguments, but I'm just literally saying what I observed. So you had the situation where Lucy Connolly, who had just been, you know, got out of jail for saying, you know, tweeting about burning down hostels and etc.

Was literally on stage and fated like she was Mother Teresa. You had a guy up there who had been bussed over from the States who was talking, some anti-vaxxer who was talking about how the king had got cancer from some sort of vaccine, sort of some vaccination program. You had, I think it was Sarah Poochin who had to be, I think almost physically stopped from walking onto stage, dressed in a union, Jack Burke. And Andrea Jenkins came on the stage singing a song or whatever. And the point was this whole sort of modernization,

we're taking ourselves to the next level. We're going to be a serious party. It kind of didn't happen. And when I dug down and asked people why wasn't it happening, what became clear for me was for reasons I still don't quite understand. Nigel Farage and the people around Nigel Farage were becoming spooked by what they saw as some sort of nascent sort of threat

from Rupert Lowe and whatever you call the new right or the faction that Lowe represent and that instead of sort of embracing moving forward and trying to embrace the country as a whole they were instead adopting a policy of trying to neutralise that faction. And that to an extent is kind of what we saw replicated as well in Makerfield. So we had this initial poll that came out right at the start of the campaign, which had obviously restore on 7%.

In that poll, it seemed to be like it could be the difference between reform winning and reform losing. But for the next three weeks of the campaign, reform stopped trying to talk to the people of Makerfield as a whole and instead spent all their time just talking to that 7% of restore voters trying to plead with them bully them beg them into into voting for restore voting switching from restore to reform we saw increasingly sort of of aggressive messages in relation to obviously the backdrop of, you know, some of the issues. So the appalling death of Henry Novak, the appalling scenes in Belfast, the riots in Belfast,

what was broadly an attempt to outflank restore on the right and convince restore voters, you know, Nigel Farage and reform were as hardcore on these issues as restore were. And the broader attempt to engage with the electorate, the wider electorate. And electorate, by the way, that as we now know, was broadly lining up behind Andy Burnham, went out of the window. And I think that is kind of part of the problem that we're seeing replicated nationally for reform and Farage at the moment. And, Julia, what have you got to say to that? Do you broadly agree? Yeah, I agree with an awful lot of that.

I mean, certainly what happened at the Reform Conference was utterly bizarre. I mean, some things you can never sort of unsee or unhear. But it troubles me to this day. Look, there's no question at all. Reform have been very focused and very rattled by Restore. There's such personal animosity between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe. Although, again, this isn't unusual territory for Nigel Farage. He is a man who has made a lot of enemies over the years.

And there's no question at all. reform is a one you know there may be many other figures like you're robert generics and the seyouy us and richard tyson and us but fundamentally it is a one-man bang in the sense that what nigel farrod says goes it's his party and what he says goes and a lot of people won't put up with that um he would say his instincts are better than other people's on this front that's why he's been let's be honest the most successful politician influential politician i should say of his generation in terms of Brexit and what he's done. However, yeah, there definitely rattles. But one of the reasons why Restore has been able to win so much popularity and was winning people over in Makerfield is because

because of Nigel Faradham for reforms attempts, which we've been seeing, to become more a government in waiting, not a protest party. Here are some policies, lining up people which they, I think in a rather silly way called, you know, shadow home secretary, shadow chancellor, their spokespeople. They haven't got spokespeople or lots of other key roles like, you know, I have got education as well, a Bravman, but, you know, defence and other issues, they haven't yet got those spokespeople properly in place. But to try and have sort of a platform of policies, some specifics for people to actually talk about. And those have been coming out pretty, you know, pretty fast and furious in recent weeks, far quicker than what we've been

seeing from the Conservatives. So part of that move from reform to sort of appeal to, you know, know, Middle England to the people who would have voted Labor, voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 to get Brexit done. Those people who, angry with the Tories, but just want any government that isn't a Labour government, or God forbid, a Labour Green coalition. And they're trying to sort of professionalise themselves now with varying levels of success, as we've seen. But crucially, part of doing that makes them look a little bit more sort of establishment than Rupert Lowe and what he's doing and some of the let's face it very very unsavory elements who support the restore party including the likes of you know the Tommy Robinson's and some as has been publicised a lot in the

last few days some you know blatant neo-nazies let's call them what they are I mean you know the left has been throwing the term far right out at anybody who voted for Brexit or or isn't, you know, a full on climate change hysteric. So that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that those two words have lost their meaning, but I mean genuinely far right. And as everyone knows, elections in Europe aren't one at the fringes. They aren't one on left and right, not by socialists, not by, you know, the fascists, they're one in, in the middle. And, and that has its own problems because then you're too like the Tories. You're not, you're not radical enough.

you're not, you know, progressive in the true sense, the word enough. And I can see that happening. But I don't think that reformer have peaked as such. I think we are in the middle, midterm doldrums of, for the love of God, what is going on, when is this going to end? When are we going to not have to see or hear this awful man starmer ever again? Why don't you guys get on with it? I hear people all the time on the right wing, whether the Tories or reform, saying, you know, why isn't there a general election? Why isn't he forced out not understanding clearly how Parliament works? But I think that just as with by-elections and with local elections, you see, voters' minds get focused at that time. And yes, you'll get tactical voting from the left, absolutely,

and you'll also get tactical voting on the right. And the main issue that comes up, I think, on the right now is, will there be a coalition of some sort? Will there be some sort of either just a, you know, You stand in that seat, we won't really make much effort in that seat, but leave us this seat over here, kind of just quiet behind the scenes, unofficial deal between Tories and reform. Are they in a position both them to make that deal quietly, you know, even if it's not even stated, you know, in actual words or on paper? And that there is likely to be many things, a coalition from the Tories and reform after any general election. I think that, I think that. I've been in this world for a very long time watching this very closely as as Dan has as well. And I remember in 2010 when we had the announcements when we had the coalition government between the Lips and the Tories, it's the end of two-party politics.

In 2015, David Cameron won of a majority. And then, you know, there's all over and it's all going to change. And then we had Boris Johnson in 2019. Well, a massive majority. He's going to be in two terms. By the way, another very charismatic, successful mayor, only lasted two years. Imagine that. And then again, you know, it was the end of, it was the end of all these different coalitions. It was back to two-party politics and it changes again. I think that voters and our country are in, and political parties are in so much flux right now. I think that there is no, I don't think you can predict what happens in a week's time, let alone the idea we can picture what's going to happen in two years time. I do I think, I think, I think, I think that is, I think that's a fool's there on, I really do. Speaking of predicting things too, Francis, sorry, let me just jump in on this one point, because it's something I wanted to say, you talk about predicting.

I actually looked at the prediction markets, Kalshi is the partner that we use, and talking about what all of this means for the country, I mean, looking at the odds of Kiyah Stama still being Prime Minister by August and September, I mean, we're looking at the high 90s here. You can see that 89% he goes before August 1st. And 86, he goes before the 1st of September. Kier-Stama departure being announced. And the other one I looked at as well is, if we can pull that up,

is the probability of who is going to be the next prime minister, and Andy Burnham is on 92%. So it seems that prediction markets-wise are effectively convinced that Keir Stama will be forced to leave, and he will be replaced by Andy Burnham. Now, the question is, what do we know about Andy Burnham and what will his premiership do to the country?

Well, that's the crucial thing, isn't it? I mean, again, harking back, because there are so many echoes of the 24 general election for Keir Starrma, you know, him on the front cover, the word change. And we never really found out really what that change was going to be, too. I mean, I'm still two years in. I'm still not quite sure what their plan was. It would transpire after he sacked his chief of staff, Sue Gray, because her job was to come up with a plan for the most of 100 days, that there wasn't a plan. Now, one of the things that is, to the certain extent, holding the Burnham camp back right now, there's a lot of talk about it. They don't want cabinet ministers to be designing. They want the prime minister to sort of come to his own realisation, this incredibly resilient man who's actually just pig-headed and stubborn. And that actually, you know, you're going to have to go with some dignity for the love of God.

Right. So the key thing is, though, if he goes very quickly, Burnham then has to take over very quickly, and Burnham doesn't have a plan. If you watch his speech that he gave, you know, after winning last night, at 3 o'clock in the morning, the speech he gave this morning, on the stump, thanking everybody, there was zero substance. I mean, nothing. Dinada, zilch, nothing there at all. I mean, you, I mean, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, You could be chasing down policies in the wind for him. He doesn't have any policies. And this is the problem with him.

He has, although he, okay, he's got a T-shirts, he's got good head of hair, he's got pretty eyelashes. And he's, and he's a nice bloat. I mean, he's genuinely, he talks to him, and he's someone you're quite happy to go to the pub with, whereas the thought of spending five minutes in Keir Starver's company, feels anyone normal with horror. Imagine getting stuck in a lift with him.

And that is a big factor of his popularity. But he's very, very similar to Keir-Starmer. He doesn't, as far as we can tell, other than a wishy-washy, you know, we're told soft left. He's fairly hard left, actually, but a wishy-washy social justice, wouldn't it be nice if people weren't poor, tax the rich a bit, blah, blah, I mean, there's lower buses, yes, we all want those. Other than that, genuinely, I don't think he, I don't think he believes in anything. I don't think he has a plan. I don't think he exactly like Pierre Stama knows why he wants to be Prime Minister, what he wants to be Prime Minister to do. He talks about change, the same way Pierre Stama did two years ago, but at no point are we hearing what that change is going to be.

Bearing in mind, he's going to have not only, as he said, signing up to the same fiscal rules as Rachel Reeves, even though entirely sure give that news night into the other day that he actually knows what they are. but also he's going to have exactly the same backbenches that Kirstama has, the same backbenchers. You haven't got a clue how the real world works, how to run a business, who think that you should put taxes up on businesses and this mythical group of very wealthy people who aren't paying any tax and won't leave the country if they can if they put those taxes up, who think that we should spend more on welfare, not less, and you frankly don't feel too sure about us by the borrowing. more taxing more or doing any any version of any cuts in any departmental spending to fund what

vital vital money on defence he's he's going to he's just going to be in a few he's going to have a bounce in the polls i've no doubt all about that and he's going to be able to communicate better but fundamentally a few months down the line he's going to be in exactly the same predicament as kirstarmer is where he's going to be and we already seen him flip-flop andy as he was in the the first two Labour leadership contests he ran in in 2010 and 2050. He does U-turn after U-10. I'll help the Waspey women. Ten billion pounds of taxpayers money should go to these women who had to retire a bit later. Oh no, I've changed my mind. We can't afford that. That took, I think, two days for him to U-turn on. We are literally into Kirstama, Mark two, in a t-shirt.

I mean, I think, I thought what was interesting is I thought you can't, we kind of just saw there with Julia's criticism of Andy Burnham, a sort of a replication of the problem reform have just had in Make a feel, which is Andy Burnham's opponents at the moment don't really know what the best line of attack is on Andy Burnham. So we had there simultaneously, he's basically exactly the same as Kier Stalmer. He doesn't know what he believes in, but he's actually somehow a creature of the hard left. And the last time I heard, I saw, and I'm by no means going to broaden this comparison,

but the last time I saw sort of people struggling to sort of get a handle on how to criticize a politician was when the Tories were trying to deal with, deal with Blair and couldn't work out whether or not to say he's this slick, slimy, sort of deceitful operas. who doesn't really believe in anything or he's actually he's actually secretly as hard left and dangerous as the hard left and if you remember the whole demon eyes thing that was going on and there's a bit of that there's a bit of a sort of a demon andy sort of confusion i i think just don't see demon angry

come on no but but but i mean no but but do you know what i mean literally people are running up people are telling me because people people are simultaneously saying to me, Andy Burnham doesn't believe anything. He's always flip-flopping. He doesn't believe in anything. And then simultaneously saying he's actually almost as hard left as Jeremy Corby. Now, the two can't be right. But just to step back onto a couple things. In terms of the broader conversation we've been having, the conversation will be having moving forward, there is one thing that we know for certain about Andy Burnham, right, which is he is not Keir-Starmer. And before we get into any discussion about, you know, have reform pete, what's going to happen with Labor, can Kemi Bad not bring the tourists back to life?

The one thing we're going to have to wait for is Kirstarmer's removal. Now, you were talking about the, you know, the predictions. Everything I'm hearing this evening, if Kier-Starmer doesn't announce on Monday stepping down or Tuesday or Wednesday stepping down, I'd be amazed. But so I think that's the sort of timeframe we're looking at. We're looking at now. But the key thing is, Kirste Starmer is such a unique, distorting prison within British politics. Because he is so unpopular. He is so despised. We will have all have had the experience. Julia will have had this. You, I'm sure, have had this. You go around the country. You go anywhere. North, southeast, west, Red Wall, you know, metropolitan, wherever.

but Keir Starmer's names comes up and it is met with ridicule, boring on hostility and hatred that I personally haven't seen before. I haven't seen it at this level and I frankly can't properly quite rationalise. So it's only when Keir Stalmer goes that in a sense the picture will clear. Now the other thing is I completely understand the criticism there's been of Andy Burn and flip-flopping, D-D-D-D-D-Dia. But the point is, Andy Burnham did exactly what Andy Burnham needed to do in that by-election.

So if you remember when the by-election started off, and I remember having this debate at the time, the initial thing was the bi-lection has been going 24 hours. It's already been framed through the prism of Brexit and his support for Brexit. That's a disaster for him. Make a field Brexit seat. It's a disaster. And I remember saying at the time, I'm no, it's not because he is not going to get set up into a national sort of campaign

in what is basically going to be a very, very localized campaign in terms of it's Andy, he's from here, his kids go at school here, etc, etc, etc. He was very skillful, in my view, in ensuring that he didn't get sucked into a huge debate on Brexit or a debate about his economic policies or his debate about his foreign policy or a debate about welfare policy. He basically just wandered around saying, you know, and I'm, as Julia said, I'm Andy, am a nice guy, I'm from here, you like me, don't me? And people said yes. Now, that does not mean that that is the Andy Burnham we're going to get in government. Because the other thing is, and this is where I completely disagree with Judah about that he's just like Kirstana.

For good or for real, I mean, I know because I used to work with him, Andy Burnham has been in politics his entire life. Andy Burnham was an advisor. He was a Labour MP. He was a chief secretary of the treasury. He was a health secretary. He's been a successful Labour mayor of Manchester. He's just one, you know, the most important by-election in British political history. Right.

He is not Keir-Starmer. He is not a political dilettom. He is not someone who doesn't understand politics and what is necessary to succeed in politics. And he does have something to use that terrible phrase. something of a political hinterland. Now, he's been on a political journey, certainly when we were working together. I was saying this somebody the other day.

He was even more new labour than I was. But the reality is, Andy Burnham is astute enough to understand that what worked for Tony Blair in 1997 is not going to work for Andy Burnham and Labour in 27 or whenever. And he has enough political experience. I think over the next few weeks and months to put forward something that will resemble, certainly

when set against what Keir Stahle presented, something that is a coherent political program and political narrative. Now, this is also where I agree with Julia. That, however, does not mean that any of the myriad problems that we're all aware of and you've articulated obviously on this program and will continue to articulate suddenly magically go when Kier Starrma goes and Andy Burnham if it is Andy Burnham comes in. But all I'm saying is I don't think it is right to say, look, he didn't say anything about what he was going to do in government in the makefield by election. So it's because he hasn't got a clue what he's going to do.

No, that's not saying that. I think I think that's too simplistic a criticism. I'm not saying that. There's just no evidence that he has thought about a lot of these issues. And there are things that, you know, and obviously he touched on very interesting in his speech this morning, that one bit, a hint of a policy that he touched on was that it was unfair on people of Makerfield to have migrants being sort of, you know, dumped, you know, these mass contracts where Serco turns up and pays double the same, double the rent anyone else can pay. Therefore, they get all the local properties and you get, you know, streets of HMOs. there was a hint, well, that that was wrong and it was unfair. He didn't actually offer a solution to that.

I don't, I don't think he ran a blinder of a campaign, no doubt at all about that. But the trouble is, and he's got this long history as a successful mayor as a cabinet minister, but he was a cabinet minister, you know, under Tony Blair when there was loads of money. We had a very, very astute leader, and he wasn't held to account personally as he'd,

being a mayor, being a backbench MP, being a cabinet minister, are all completely different from being the prime minister to govern us to choose. You have to make choices. There are a heck of a lot of very, very tough choices that are about to be made. And he said he's going to bring change. But he's also going to stick to the Stama manifesto offering change, but we don't know what kind of change that was supposed to be either. And he's doing it, as I say, with the same backbenchers and with the same fiscal constraints and realistically what can he get done when the things that most need to be done the things that the majority of people who frankly paying any attention at all no need to be

done spending on defence cutting welfare dropping net zero are things that I think we can be very sure he's not going to be able or willing to do the fact that Ed Miliband has been touted as a likely candidate for being Andy Bonham's Chancellor I think is a bit of a giveaway there. Andy Miliband is a climate hysteric zealot. He makes Greta look moderate and normal on this issue. He is one of the main reasons why we are, you know, we are heading, you know, into oblivion when it comes to our energy policy, industrial policy, our inability to pay for defence. It's a massive national security issue now on the net zero issue. Anyone paying attention knows that that was always an insane policy it's a particularly insane policy given the current global situation that we're in

right now threats for Russia China but can just pick up on that I mean again I think that's an example of what I'm talking about so we've already got you know Andy Burnham has been an MP I think for like what five hours now five or five or six hours now Julie was already criticizing him for it for the fact that he's appointing Ed Miliband as his chancellor now I've not even I've seen, I've seen, I've seen Ed Miliband touted as his Chancellor. I've also, and I've written it myself, I've also seen it tout that he may, and I think this chills, this terrifies me even more frankly, that he may well retain Rachel Reeves as his Chancellor to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, I've seen people, I've seen people, I've seen reports that that Evette Cooper might be his Chancellor. I've seen, I saw a report that Lou Hay he was going to be his

Chancellor. Now, I am not saying for a moment that if Ed Miliband is brought in as Chancellor, all of Britain's problems will be solved. But what I am saying is, once again, the criticism of Andy Burnham is a criticism that is not at the moment rooted in anything that Andy Burnham has actually said or done or even come even even closer. Julie, sorry, let me jump in here because there's one thing I want to address. we're getting very Westminster here and I want to come back to the country a little bit and I think one of the most important things is Dan you are very eloquent about what Andy Burnham is not but I think the issue Julia raises which is an issue I think for all of us

and I look at this conversation and it stands out to me is I don't know what Andy Burnham stands for and I don't think anybody does so I'm not saying he's a great job look I'm in danger slipping into sort of becoming Andy Bairdum spokesman on this program, but let me try. Well, that's why we brought you on. Let me articulate it in a sort of a broader, in a broader context and one that I think we will all, we will all grasp. It seems to me and you know, I, you know, watch a lot of what you, you both talk about. I think we would all probably agree that one of the fundamental sort of fissures in British politics, in British society, is the fact and you know we were talking about the

july was talking about the success of nijal farage and reform is that over the last 10 20 30 years we have had a politics that has been shaped by a small i'm going to be slightly simplistic here but let's roll with it a small sort of westminster clique elite whatever what have you that has governed in a way that a significant section of the British electorate, primarily if you want to call white working class, lives outside of the big traditional metropolitan heartlands, particularly in the north of England. What has become badged primarily as Red Wall Britain was basically cast aside

and was viewed by both of the main political parties as at best as expendable and at worst as an obstacle to the great liberal sort of progressive Britain that these the two parties wanted to build. Now, if you're looking for Andy Burnham's identity, whatever criticisms you have of him, Andy Burnham is someone, and we saw this in Makerfield, we've just seen this in Makerfield, is someone who's, if you like, political identity over the past, five, six, seven years has been shaped firstly by engaging with a constituency outside of that metropolitan elite and more broadly as someone who is rooted and, you know, it will become, we'll all get bored with it in a year or a couple of years or a couple years time, you know, Northern Andy,

all that sort of stuff. But he is somebody who does understand and engage with the broader problems of what I would broadly call Red War Britain and I was at his sort of victory rally thing today and he came up with something which if he follows through on it I actually think could potentially be have some significance which he said is everything that we now need to do as a party has to has to pass the maker field test which is is what a labour government is doing is it going directly not not indirectly through some sort of Blairite or sort of Thatcherite sort of sort of trickle-down thing, is it directly going to benefit people here in Makerfield? Now, I'll be honest, I haven't heard that from a Labour leader before.

Boris obviously tried to articulate something along these lines, and obviously was, in the short term, was actually very successful in trying to articulate a vision. So that is where I would give, if you want to look for Andy Burnham's political identity, that's where you start. However, again, this is where I agree with Julia and I'm sure yourselves, it's one thing that sort of have these things like the make-field test and magistrate, magistrate, etc., etc. But to overlay that template onto the political reality of a country that has no defense, has no borders, has a welfare crisis, has a pensions crisis, is obviously of a complete

different order. But equally, those are the issues. that would be confronting the country, whoever became, whoever replaced Keir-Starm, and not just Andy Burn. But that's the problem, isn't it, Julia? We are going to need a leader to come in, and for want of a better comparison, be a Margaret Thatcher, be a Margaret Thatcher, of the centre, of the right or of the left. And you're looking at Burnham, and maybe this is just a surface-level analysis, but I don't

think he's got the spine in order to tackle that and go against his own party, which is what he's going to need to do and risk a whole load of his MPs and supporters hemorrhaging to the Greens. Yeah, I mean, that's the thing. And look, I want to make it very clear. I know, I like Andy Burnham. I need to be nice bloke. He's not going to say, he's someone you can, you know, you can actually spend time with. And I think his heart is probably in the right place. I mean, all politicians are ambitious, aren't they? But as you say, I don't think, and I'm not 100% sure right now we have anyone in any party that has both the, the, the, the, the, the, the beliefs and the drive and the ability to push those through, but also to create the

coalition, the wider coalition to make that happen in our very sort of, you know, His Majesty's Government, the opposition dynamic we've got in Parliament. Because I think that is very, very difficult. We do need, I mean, almost, you know, a national unity government to deal with all the big stuff to say, look, we all know. And frankly, a lot of the sensible people in all of the political parties, and there are some that don't have many sensible people, except that these are all the things that need to be done, but they won't do them. Now, if he is, if he is as popular as Dan believes he is, if he really does have this charisma and this ability and that that can be enough and he's got this vision and he does have a plan, if that is all the

case, then he will do some of the things that you just mentioned and I've been mentioning earlier in the podcast, and he'll be able to do them by saying to his backbenchers, look, I know we care about people on wealth. We don't want to take anyone off wealth. I know that we want to spend more on the NHS. I know we want to do this and that. But we, and I know we care about the environment, but we need to do X, Y and Z because this is what the country needs.

And it may not be what we feel like we like now, but we can do it. Now, a strong leader could do that, could drive that through, would be able to push that through, have the powers of persuasion. I don't think there's any evidence that he does have that. And one of the things that I think really did it for Kirstama was this U-turn, after U-turn, after U-turn. Not only did he not believe anything he said, even speeches he gave, the island of strangers speeches. Apparently he didn't even believe. I hadn't read it. You know, he didn't believe anything he said. He didn't have a plan. But also, crucially, whenever he came up against

pretty much any opposition at all, he did nothing about it. He just went, oh, okay, he slunked back into his corner and he gave in. Now, the first moment when Andy Bernard, and tries to do anything that is vitally economically or security-wise necessary. And he gets pushback from a large number of more left, the backbenchers largely being more on the left, those backbenchers who thought he was their great white hope. The moment he buckles, that first time that he buckles, he's finished. Because all of his backbenchers will know, great, we've got another pushover. We can prevent this stuff from happening.

And there are an awful lot of people, Labour Party, memory. members, not so much the voters, they're much wiser, and everybody members, and many on the back benches at that point, and quite a few, frankly, in the government benches as well, who genuinely think that this stuff doesn't need to be done. And, you know, they are going to be, they're going to be, realistically, they're the ones who are going to be Andy Burnham's enemy, not Kemmy Bade, not at PMQ's asking her six questions,

not reform in local by-elections in the Red Wall. the real enemy that Andy Burnham is going to have to face down is his own backbenchers. But just to pick up on what you just said and also the point you made, because you framed the question as Andy Burnham is going to be seen by Labour backbenches as the man who can neutralise sort of Polanski and the Greens. Obviously there's an element of that. That's not why Andy Burnham is about to become elected leader of the Labour Party in Prime Minister. We saw it yesterday.

We saw it this morning at the rally. We saw it in Makerfield. Andy Burnham is the reason why Keir Starmer is being thrown out of the balloon two years after winning a 400 majority is because Andy, and replaced by Andy Burnham. It's because in the eyes of Labour MPs, Andy Burnham has one job. And it's not to save them from the Greens, although there's a component of that. His primary job is to save them from reform. and Nigel Farage. Andy Burnham, rightly or wrongly, this morning, across the Labour movement, is seen as the Farage Slayer. Now, whether he is or he isn't, we're going to find out,

obviously, in the next few months and years. But that's what, to the extent he's going to have a mandate from anyone, and I personally have written about this today, I mean, I think there should be a contest within the Labour Party rather than the coronation, but either way, the extent to which Andy Burnham is going to have a mandate from his party to do anything, it's going to do one thing, and that's to defeat Nigel Farage. Now, obviously he's going to have a lot of problems, to put it mildly, dealing with that. But the majority of Labour MPs understand you do not defeat Nigel Farage by articulating an incredibly liberal view on open borders. reopening the Brexit argument. Now it's not to say there aren't people within the Labour Party who do want to see those arguments articulating. But certainly for the first six to 12 months

of a Burnham Premiship, those people will find themselves put push to the background if Burnham can present himself as, as I said, someone who can be an antidote to reform. And what I think, part of what he will do, there will definitely be some in some sort of areas a shift to the left. But as we've seen within reform, there are elements of reforms policies, particularly on the economic side, which themselves are quite left wing. And Kemi Badnock has obviously done a good job in articulating that. So this idea that Andy Burnham comes in and he's just going to be another Starmer, liberal, lefty, that's not going to be his job at the beginning. His job is going to be, save us from Farage. and there is an appreciation.

Firstly, Andy Burnham appreciates this himself and the people around him do and also a number of Labour MPs. They may not like it, but they understand that if they do want Andy Burnham to see of Nigel Farage, there are certain things Andy Burnham is going to have to do and say that maybe they wouldn't normally feel that comfortable with

and certainly they weren't going to let Kea Stama get away when Kea Starma had a popularity of minus 44. If Andy Burnham can retain any sort of national popularity and can demonstrate any sort of bounce in the polls at the moment and can in any way narrow the gap between Labor and reform, then he will get a bit of breathing space from his party. If he messes it up, they'll take his head off. But in the short term, they'll give him, in the short term, they'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He'll get the breathing space, but as soon as he has to. to make a decision he's going to upset one side or the other and any decision yeah but as i said that's what having the breathing space but that's what having the breathing space is he will have

he he he will be given the opportunity initially if he wants to take him to deal with some to take some difficult decisions and in the short term labor MPs will suck it up and see how it how it works out now obviously if subsequently you know if we're sitting here in 12 months time and Andy Burnham is at minus 44 but you know personal rating in the bowls and Nigel Farage is on 40%. We're going to be having the conversation about who replaces Andy Andy Burnham. But the idea that you know, Labour MP is going to pounce on him immediately and say, right, you've got to do this, you've got to you've got to do that. If he does secure the Labor leadership, he will have a honeymoon period. It won't be a long one, but he will. I don't think the

honeymoon period would be different from Labour back venters from the voters. I mean, voters don't expect things to change immediately. A lot of people, you know, may not know much about him, you know, as we following him closely, don't know much about what his policies are. But again, I certainly don't accept that actually that honeymoon can last very long because there needs to be action. And when there isn't action, he will be blamed for that. And when there is action, he cannot please everybody all the time. And it's very easy when you're the mayor of Manchester to sort of please all these people all the time. And, you know, it's, you're not. You're not. You're not, not being held to account for, you know, what money's being spent on defense, what money's being

spent on health, what, you know, whether the trains run on time. You're literally not being held responsible for every single thing that happens in the country, which was what happens to a Prime Minister. And I don't think he's going, I just don't see anything from all the things that I think are good about him. I don't see anything in there that suggests he is going to be able to withstand it. He will do it. Trust me on one thing. And Andy Burnham has been around politics long enough to know the difference between mayor and Manchester and being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. He knows that difference. That's a totally fair point. But I think we've got one minute left. I think the point that I agree with Julian is this. The reason you mentioned that it's inexplicable to you,

the hatred and animosity that exists in this country towards Kiyosama, who, let's be honest, I don't think most of the public know what he's done. He hasn't done anything that they would regard as terrible actually. There's not, if you said to the ordinary person, what is Kiyosama? things they think are terrible. I don't know about that. Would you feel an allowance for elderly people? Come on. A lot of people still talk about that two years on. My point is bigger than this, which is, I think the country is in a very bad way in the way that you've actually both articulated. And that is where people's frustrations come in. Kea Stama has borne the brunt of that because he has been in power during the time that that situation has continued to get worse.

all the previous Tory prime ministers before him were also deeply unpopular. Boris Johnson had a very brief period that ended during COVID and thereafter. And so my point is Andy Burnham may be a very nice chap who may develop some policies, who may get a honeymoon from the Labour Party. But ultimately, Dan, final word to you for literally 30 seconds, don't you think he will become Kirstama, not because he's like Kirstama, but because any Labour Prime Minister currently is going to become deeply unpopular because of the situation the country is in 30 seconds no i don't think he'll become

keir-starmer if if andy bernan fails he'll become even less popular than kierstah wow that is not that failure is not currently preordained there we go julia harley brewer dan hodges thank you so much for a great conversation really appreciate you joining us on this friday evening i'm sure our audience have loved this thank you so much for being here thank you