TRIGGERnometry - Venezuela Update with Francis Foster and Konstantin Kisin

Episode Date: January 5, 2026

Join Francis Foster and Konstantin Kisin live as they unpack the explosive Venezuela crisis: Nicolás Maduro's dramatic US capture and ousting after disputed elections, drug trafficking charges in a New York courtroom, Trump's bold threats of further strikes and claims to run the nation, and the chaotic power vacuum with a softening interim leader amid U.N. debates on intervention legality. Dive into the fallout from economic collapse, mass migration waves, U.S. military strikes, and global tensions in this high-stakes showdown between socialism's last stronghold and American interventionism—don't miss the unfiltered analysis on regime change, human rights abuses, and what comes next for Latin America's powder keg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

They say everything happens for a reason, but I suspect everything happens for a Reese's. Like this commercial break, did you need 15 seconds away from music, or 15 seconds to eat or Reese's? Perhaps it's true. Everything happens for a Reese's. Choice hotels get you more of what you value. Here's a little tune to help you remember. Same drive, different day. Don't you wish you were getting away? Pack your bands and come on through. Texas, Ohio, Alaska, we're up there too. comfort in it's calling your name save on the stay oh and free waffles are yours to claim well i hope you like my little song book direct at source hilltales dot com hello everybody and welcome to uh the first

live episode of the year as you can see thanks to president trump we've had to come back to work earlier than we plan so we're not in studio uh welcome one welcome all and it seems the pattern of 2026 is to continue the pattern of the previous several years where any country that we have any connection to personally gets invaded. It's your turn, Francis. Congratulations, mate. Yeah, thank you very much. It was a rather surreal experience to wake up on a Saturday morning,

turn my phone on, check the football results. And what it wasn't actually the football, what was actually on my screen was something that Venezuelans have been praying for. Ever since basically Maduro got elected, but also before Maduro in the time of Chavez, which is Maduro has been taken. Him and his wife have been taken by the United States, and they are going to be facing justice for the crimes that they have committed in Venezuela. There is a word in Venezuela.

You say that. I mean, we'll get into that. Before we go all the way in, let's give everybody a little moment to join in. We'll discuss the idea that he's going to be facing justice for this crime he's committed in Venezuela and the geopolitical implications of all of that. But before we get into all of that, perhaps you can just give everybody a quick breakdown of who Nicholas Maduro is, how long he's been in power, and what may have led to this operation, particularly in the light of the conversation we had with Daniel Di Martino, a very timely released episode that's obviously done incredible numbers since it's come out.

because of this event. So just give us the basic background, first of all. Of course. So it all starts in 1999 with Hugo Chavez being democratically elected by the Venezuelan people in a landslide victory. This is what people always forget. Hugo Chavez won by a landslide with a communist revolution. It was a communist party. He was talking, they were calling themselves Chavistas. And what he was promising, in his left-wing populist revolution is that the elites, the elites were the ones who were ignoring the Venezuelan people. That's why we saw this horrendous inequality in Venezuela

between rich and between poor. He was going to do something about corruption. Venezuela's famously been one of the most corrupt nations on earth since from before my time. And he promised to do something. Venezuela was the fifth biggest oil producer in the world with the largest oil reserves in the world. And a lot of that oil money had not filtered down to the poorest people.

Venezuela, and particularly Caracas, one of the most unequal societies in the world where you had this echelon of very rich, very wealthy people who were living these incredibly luxurious lives. And then you had other people, the vast majority of people in society, living in what is called Los Ranchos. In Brazil, they're called the Faventos.

Velas, they're the shanty towns. So that's the backdrop of a Venezuela. It was corrupt president after corrupt president after corrupt president. Chavez came in, landslide election, and he said, what we're going to see is a left-wing populist revolution. What we're going to see is a redistribution of wealth. What we're going to see is a fairer Venezuela. And the thing that's very interesting, and we may come back and talk about this, is he was seen as a symbol. He was seen as a symbol of socialism. This was going to be the new way. This was going to be the new left-wing revolution.

And the usual suspects got behind it, the Owen Jones, the Jeremy Corbyn's, the Bernie Sanders, who unidized Chavez and said, this is the way it should be done. And you know what? For the first few years, it seemed to be going okay. oil prices spiked, there was some sort of redistribution of wealth, hospitals open, new schools, etc, etc., and people were thinking, actually, could this be a new dawn for Venezuela? A new dawn for a fairer Venezuela for everybody. But unfortunately, what happens with communist parties and communist dictatorships is they start off with a narrative of fairness, and you all know this very well yourself, Constantine. And slowly but surely the tentacles of power start to go into every facet of society. And we saw this bit by bit in Venezuela.

It started off with allegiances with Cuba. So there was allegiances between Venezuela and Cuba. And what that actually was was Venezuela providing Cuba with cheap oil, cheap petroleum, helping to keep their crippled economy afloat. and Fidel Castro at the time providing Hugo Chavez with the means and the know-how in order to take over Venezuela and turn it from a very corrupt, although capitalist country and incredibly wealthy, to what we see now, which is a communist country, which is economically crippled with a population of 9 million people who now live abroad. situation in Venezuela for the vast majority is simply untenable. It is one of the poorest nations on earth. Its life expectancy is lower than Syria. Inflation regularly hits around 200%. We talk about unfairness before, but now what we have is a majority of people who struggle, not only to

make it through a day or a week or a month, but struggle to eat. What Venezuela has has become is it's turned in this turned from one of the richest countries in the world to an absolute economic basket case now what happened with chavez is his peace power grew and as his power grew so did the human rights abuses so did going after political opponents imprisoning them imprisoning journalists threatening journalists torturing journalists there was no such thing as freedom of speech in Venezuela. And that was how it progressed. And then the economy crashed. And then what happened and no one expected this is Chavez got sick. He developed stomach cancer. And he passed away in 2013. Now this was a ray of hope for Venezuelans at the time who thought to

themselves, ah, now maybe with Chavez gone, there's a new hope. Maybe with a new leader, we can have a new dawn. Maybe there's going to be a chance for us to be able to actually start again. Let me guess. It worked out perfectly. Yeah, it worked out perfectly. He elated a man called Nicholas Maduro. Now, this is very interesting. Nicholas, and this was a shock to everyone. Hold on. What you say he elected? Who elected? Oh, sorry, he didn't elect. There you go. There was a Freudian slip. He nominated his successor on his deathbed. Nicholas Maduro. And this was a shock at the time in Venezuela because there are other big players who people expected to be the leader. Now, Nicholas Maduro was a former bus driver.

He was in a rock band. This was not a man of great intellectual ability. But what he was known for amongst the Javistas, above all, was his loyalty to the revolution, to the Chavez project. And when he was nominated, people were actually quite shocked. But the thing with Maduro's government is, is that it was even worse. The human rights abuses became worse. The poverty became worse. Everything in the country came to the point where it became a failed state.

And Maduro has presided over Venezuela since 2013. And he has presided over a country that lives in fear, that feels, unable to not only voice their opinion, but also there's a word in in Spanish called Esperanza, which means hope. And Esperanza, the first part of that word, which means to wait. And Venezuelans have been waiting a long, long, long time. In fact, many of them have actually given up hope that Maduro and his ilk

were actually going to be gone. So it's been a very, very interesting time for Venezuelans. It's been a real shock for them. What happened a couple of days ago. It's disbelief. There's a little bit of Esperanza in there, but there's also fear as well. Because as you know, after the Soviet Union collapsed, what's even more dangerous in an authoritarian regime is a power vacuum.

And we can go into what's happening now, the successor who's been appointed. who she is and all the rest of it. Well, we can. It's really interesting to hear, first and foremost, your background on how the people of Venezuela feel. There are lots of suggestions in the comments that you should be appointed king of Venezuela. One I obviously support.

One of the things that I think is interesting, though, is with all respect to Venezuela and people in Venezuela, I don't think this operation had anything to do with the things that you're talking about, right? And that I think is very clear because this is essentially, and we've heard from a Secretary of State Marco Rubio on this, this was an action that was based on the fact that Venezuela was not just a poor country that was treating its citizens badly. That really obviously, that those boxes are ticked for lots and lots of countries around the world. The reason this happened was that Venezuela was becoming a hostile force within America's hemisphere, within America's fear of influence, within America's fear of dominance, you might say.

Can you talk a little bit about the fact that we know, for example, that the Venezuelan government under Maduro was playing footsie with China, was playing footsie with Russia, was hosting as far as we know maybe even Hezbollah training camps in Venezuela. Tell us about that. So Maduro and before that, Chavez, were always anti-West. They talked about America as this great evil, the great Satan. In fact, Hugo Chavez famously said that George W. Bush was as dangerous as a monkey with a razor blade.

It was one of his many sayings about George Bush. But it comes from that hard left communist viewpoint that America is the great Satan, that they, for too long America has had, or the United States, has had Latin America and its iron grip. And what America has done is use the resources and the country and the peoples of South America for their own gains. And what Chavez and Maduro wanted to do is they wanted to seek alliances with other countries and other nations who are actually the enemies of the United States of America. So the Iran's of the world, the Chinas of the world and the rushes of the world. And these alliances for those countries was incredibly attractive because what you don't know, well, a lot of people don't know is Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world.

And as a result of that, for the Chinese, maybe less so for the Russians because they've got their own oil reserves and the Iranians. That meant that it was a very, very powerful ally. And Venezuela oil is quite unique in that it's. actually very diverse. A lot of petroleum when it's taken out of the ground, the oil that's taken out of the ground, it can only be used maybe for one or two things, but Venezuelan oil can be used for many things from petrol, right the way through to helping to resurface roads, etc. So this is incredibly valuable stuff that Venezuela has. And not only that, it's also got reserves of gold, natural gas, minerals. Venezuela is one of the,

most resourceful countries in rich and resource countries in the globe. So for those countries to have an alliance with Venezuela is pretty much priceless. Also as well, the fact that they could have relations and close ties with a nation, people don't realize that actually Venezuela is at the very top of South America. It's right on the Caribbean Ocean. And it's only a couple of hours flight. Caribbean Basin, yeah. Yeah, from Caribbean Basin. From there to Florida to the United States.

That's one part of it. Another part of it that really frustrates America is in South America, Venezuela is known as El Buente. The Bridge. Why is it called the Bridge? Well, it's very simple. Because Venezuela doesn't produce cocaine. Bolivia, Colombia, Peru, producer cocaine.

But Venezuela is known as the Pente, the bridge. So people, drug traffickers, take their drugs to Venezuela, and then they use it as a bridge to go to different parts of America. And that, again, was another. It's not the main reason by any stretch of the imagination, but it was a huge frustration to American governments that Venezuela was essentially not only turning, a blind eye to this kind of criminal activity, but actually profiting from it.

And it wasn't only that. It was the way, the brazen way, Chavez and Maduro were flaunting this criminal activities, flaunting that they were in league with Russia, with Iran. I remember talking to a cousin of mine. I was asking how Venezuela is, and he was like, bro, we now have Hezbollah training caps. If you think about it from the Americans' point of view, this is entirely unacceptable. The provocative nature of Chavez and then Maduro thumbing their nose at Venezuela was, for many American governments, untenable. Another example, Guyana.

So for those of you don't know, Guyana is a country in South America. It's a former British colony. next to Venezuela. And there's always been disputes between Venezuela and Guyana, saying Venezuela say Guyana, there's a region of it that should be part of Venezuela, the Guyanese dispute this, but it's impenetrable rainforests, who cares?

Until 2015, when some of the largest oil deposits were found in Guyana, at this point, Venezuela decided that they were going to stake a country. claim to this territory. Maduro redrew the map of Venezuela, distributed it to schools. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money, whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings. There's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. With this new territory as being part of the Venezuelan nation.

He then in 2024, I think it was, or 2023, they had an election where he asked the Venezuelan people, should this new territory be part of Venezuela? And apparently, apparently, the Venezuelan people agreed to it. So you see, what they were doing was not only liaising with the enemies of the United States. not only were they providing and profiting from the drug trade, but they were also sabre-rattling right in America's back door. And this came to a point. Biden put a bounty of around $50 million on Maduro's head, and then Trump came to power.

And as we all know, Trump and Biden are two very different animals. What Biden may see is acceptable, or even turn a blind eye to, that wasn't going to wash under Donald Trump. In Trump's own words, fuck around, find out. Well, what's interesting as well is, obviously there's another potential conversation to be had here. And a lot of people are pointing out,

you know, calling me and you idiot in the chat saying, you idiot, this is all about oil. And you mentioned that Venezuela has a lot of oil. To what extent is it fair to say, this is just a lack of. land grab, oil grab, the United States basically trying to control Venezuela's oil supply. I mean, it's an interesting argument given the fact that the U.S. is the largest oil producer in the world.

It's not like it needs loads more oil. What it probably doesn't want is the Chinese and the Russians and the Iranians to be. I mean, Iran has a lot of oil. The Chinese in particular to control that. What's your view on that conversation? So one of the opinions that people are saying is it's not that America needs to, the oil. The reality is Venezuela provides around 4% of the oil for China. China is not largely dependent on the oil. Four percent. It's still a significant percentage. Don't get me wrong,

but it's not, it's not life-threatening to its society. But a lot of people are saying that what Trump wants to do is he wants to seize Venezuela, then co-op the oil, bring in American companies. They're going to make a lot of money, but it's also going to help to continue. the oil prices. Because once you start to control the oil prices and if you keep it below $50 a barrel, that is really going to affect your enemies. Really going to affect your enemies. So there are a lot of people saying that. And look, we've got to be honest about this. Of course, for oil plays a significant factor. Of course they do. American companies were making billions upon billions from American from Venezuelan oil. They had contracts in Venezuela with better

which was the Venezuelan oil company. It was nationalized. Travis and his cronies tore up all of that. So of course that's going to actually be a very, very significant part of this decision. But I also do think the geopolitical element of it, we talked about this with Mike Baker. We have been talking about this for a while on trigonometry. This plays a very significant part. The fact that this Venezuela is perceived as a security threat, The reality is this was always going to happen.

The surprise came that it happened in the manner that it did, which I don't think anyone would have predicted. Well, that's something we should talk about, the manner that it happened as well. I mean, one of the interesting things is this, we really should take this opportunity to give ourselves a huge amount of credit, I feel, in that you've been talking about this for a long time. You've been at me to get guests on to talk about this,

our interview with Daniel D. Martina, which I mentioned at the beginning, We released that, I think, on Christmas Eve. We kind of knew this was coming at some point, because if you were actually paying attention in detail, you knew that it was building up to this. But what has been interesting, I mean, one of the things we haven't talked about,

and it's really shaping the way people discuss this issue, because as we know, having talked to lots and lots of people, you know, from different sides of the political spectrum, there's obviously a massive isolationist non-interested, interventionist wing in American politics in particular. And I think it's fair to say that it's based on the fact that Iraq was a disaster, Afghanistan was a disaster, and before that, Vietnam was a disaster. But what's happened here is a precedent that many people thought would be non-interventionist

and isolationist is actually showing that there is a third way in all of this, which is you don't have to withdraw from the world in a way that, I think it's reasonable to say America cannot do while remaining a great power. Being a great power means controlling the territory around you, controlling neighboring countries, making sure that other great powers don't encroach on your territory, don't sabotage your operations, et cetera. But what he's not doing is getting America embroiled in a regime change war in Iran. He just takes out the nuclear weapons in 12 days, job done, largely using Israeli intelligence and so. And here in Venezuela, what we saw is an intervention with zero casualties by the Americans, where they effectively go in, extract the leader who they consider a problem, and then leave.

We'll talk obviously about the implications for Venezuela going forward. But it is quite a remarkable thing. And I think President Trump is single-handedly showing that you don't have to be someone who launches long-cost. trillion-dollar wars to deal with specific problems in the way that we've seen in the past. Completely agree. I mean, Trump in his address to the nation said that only the Americans could have been capable of pulling off this kind of operation. And he's right. He's right. I couldn't think of a single other nation that would have been able to do this. The way that Delta Force carried this operation out. It was absolutely masterful. So I was talking to my friend and he was saying that

on Friday night, it was around 2 o'clock in the morning. He was an insomniac, so he was playing Sudoku. And he heard planes flying overhead. Now at the moment, there is a no-fly zone across Caracas, across Venezuela. And so he thought that was bizarre. He heard a huge explosion and then he heard another series of explosions and then that was it that was it now i do know one person a cousin of mine who lives close to the area that was affected whose windows were blown out but that seems to be pretty much all that happened as far as civilians as civilian casualties well not even civilian casualties but property was affected etc so what americans did with this was completely masterful. But what's really interesting, and I don't think people are talking about enough,

is who they appointed as the successor. They didn't appoint Corrina Machado, what people widely regard as the leader, the de facto leader of Venezuela. He said about her, she went, she's a nice lady, but she doesn't have the respect of the country. And what people actually think he means by that is she doesn't have the respect. of the army. So if we look at it through that lens, it's a very pragmatic choice because he's put in place,

effectively, Maduro is one of Maduro's hench people. And this Delci Rodriguez, by the way, is not a moderate. She was at Maduro's side when he was committing his horrendous crimes, when

all of these awful things were happening to the Venezuelan people. What's really interesting as well is her father was a renowned left-wing terrorist. So this is a woman who has extremism coursing through her veins. Is she a communist? Yes. She's a part of the Communist Party of Venezuela. And do we do we know why it is that they've essentially replaced one communist with another? Well, this is where we get into the realms of conjecture because the rumors in Venezuela are, there have been multiple bounties on the heads of the regime.

So in the heads of the regime, there have been multiple bounties. However, with Deli Rodriguez and her brother, who was the head of the Senate, there was no bounty. So people are going, hang on a second. Why is it everybody else has got a bounty for $10, $20, $50 million on their head, but Delsey hasn't? And the rumor is, is that she was in league with the, Americans, she knew what was going to be happening. She was the one who gave the information.

Now, this is just conjecture. We don't know. These are just rumors. And that's the reason why she has stepped in and we have seen this smooth transition of power. Because she has said herself, and she's made this public, that she will do whatever the Americans want. She will do whatever do they want. Have we heard what their plan is for Venezuela? Because, I mean, You talked obviously at the beginning about the fact that this is a great opportunity for the Venezuelan people to finally have leadership that actually represents them and the wishes and have a stable economy, etc. What you're describing so far doesn't sound remotely like that. No. So what Trump has said is that essentially he didn't use these words, but Venezuela is currently a de facto colony of the United States as of this moment.

he says that did you really say that no he didn't say that but that's what Venezuela is as of this moment Venezuela is under the control of the American government how because they have a leader in charge

who is following the orders of the Americans that there is no question about that if she and Trump has said this if she steps out of line the same thing is going to happen So she knows that she can't fuck around, to put it bluntly.

So what Trump has said is said he wants Venezuela to be opened up to the oil companies. He wants the oil to be started to the infrastructure to be rebuilt. He wants the oil to start pumping. And he says eventually he wants it to be ruled by a Venezuelan leader who will treat Venezuelans with dignity and respect and be a good ally to. America. But at the moment in Venezuela, you might have seen videos of Venezuelans cheering on the streets, Venezuelan flags, hot Venezuelan ladies, you know, dancing in the street, etc. None of those, that video footage have come from the streets of Caracas, Maracaibo,

or any other city in Venezuela. Those have come from Madrid, Barcelona, Miami, wherever it may be. when I was talking to my friends and relatives, there is a lockdown in Venezuela. Nobody is allowed to leave their house unless you go to work and it is an emergency or you have to buy food or you have to go to the gas station. That is it. At the moment, the collectivos, which are essentially Maduro's thugs and henchmen, the people who patrol and maintain order, they're currently roaming the streets. If you were found on the streets without papers or without a good reason to be there, you are in big, big, big trouble. Well, this is why I asked you why you say that the United States is in charge, because if Maduro's collectivos are roaming the streets shooting people who go out, that doesn't sound to me like the US is in charge. But we don't know that they're shooting people.

What we do know is that there is a lockdown and that. Okay. But is that lockdown instituted? by the Americans? We don't know. We don't know. But what we do know is that it wouldn't surprise me if it is, because the most dangerous thing, and we've touched on it before,

is a power vacuum. And that's what they don't want. Because when you have regime change, like we've seen in Iraq or in Afghanistan, all of these countries, the moment you have a power vacuum, that is the time when everything crumbles. So it actually makes sense to have a lockdown

and to have people in their houses and not leaving only for essentials or emergencies. It's an interesting situation because I'm not hearing a lot about the promise of elections or democracy and all of that. Do you think that's on the cards? I think that's going to be a long, long, long time. I think Venezuelans have waited for 26 years to get rid of this government. I think, unfortunately, there are no promises. We don't know. There have been talks at Delci Rodriguez is going to rule for a 90-day interim period.

And bear in mind as well, it's not only Delci Rodriguez at the top, all Maduro's henchmen and some of his most notorious enforcers, the Minister of Justice, the Minister for the Interior, who is also the head of the Collic Divor's, these people, these men are still in place. They are still in place. So even though they have had bounties on their heads for tens of millions of dollars, they're not going anywhere as of this moment. And I think what's really important to talk about is the level of uncertainty. No one knows where this is going. This is a day-to-day situation where Venezuelans and other people around

the world are waking up and going, what's going to happen today? So it's quite apparent that America is in charge. And they're saying to the Venezuelan government, this is enough. We're going to we're going to now operate and instruct Venezuela how to exist, how to live, how to be a country. but as to the long-term future of Venezuela, what happens into the Venezuelan people, it's anyone's guess, to be honest. We haven't really talked about Maduro. I don't know how important it is at this point,

but effectively he's been taken to the United States, has been charged with drug trafficking, as I understand it, and he's pleaded not guilty. Is it fair to say that while he certainly, and, you know, our conversation with Daniel DeMartino touched on this extensively. It's certainly true that his people have been involved in the drug trafficking, including to the United States. That really isn't the reason that this has happened. Is that fair to say?

No, that's not the reason that it's happened. Because if we look at drug trafficking, we go, well, why not Colombia? Why not Mexico? Mexico, in terms of drug trafficking, dwarfs Venezuela. and it's not only because it's cocaine from Venezuela, but if you look at the fentanyl that comes over the border from Mexico, no, the accusation is that Maduro is part of the cartel de los solas,

which is a notorious cartel, drug cartel, and these are the accusations being leveled against him. One of the things that actually people have missed is it's also his wife, and people are going, why is his wife? And this is where it gets also really interesting, because his wife was a politician or is a politician. And she's known in Venezuela as crueler, more vicious than her husband. Somebody who instructs the torture of political enemies, journalists, and also takes a real delight in the suffering of other people. And the fact that she was captured along with Maduro sent, I can only say shockwaves of joy and people in Venezuela were so happy.

Actually, probably even more happy that she was captured than Maduro. She's known as the brains of the operation. There have been several clips that have gone viral across the internet showing Maduro trying to do even basic mathematics live on air and failing miserably time after time. after time. And it goes back to the point I made. This man wasn't picked because he's a brilliant leader or he's strategically ingenious or he's an incredible politician. This man was picked because he was loyal and he followed orders. It's the people below him and around him who are the brains behind the party. So again, it touches on the fact that if you think or people, think that just because Maduro and his wife have left Venezuela that the problem has been solved,

tragic as it is, that simply isn't the case. Well, you know, it's interesting that we're talking about this because, you know, just because somebody's part of a regime doesn't mean that they will necessarily continue the same policies. The example I would give is in the Soviet Union, the USSR, the people who led that country to be democratized with Mikhail Gorbachev, Edward Sharanazza and others, who were members of the Polyb Bureau.

They were senior communists who were effectively a branch of that leadership, cadre, who saw that the current way of doing things was no longer sustainable, and because of that, adopted pro-democracy policies. So I suppose the question is,

are these people hardcore? And also ultimately, can they be kept in line by the Americans or will they do what often has happened in Latin America where somebody is established as a leader of the country by the Americans and when they get the power and they get the money, they turn around and they start having a go at the green goes again.

It's a very good question. Very, very, very, very good question. And the reality is, number one, we simply don't know. But number two, it's when you have a ruler like Trump, when you have a president like Trump, Trump's great strength is his unpredictability. And the fact that you don't know what he's going to do

at any given moment, and that includes all of us, probably even Donald Trump himself sometimes, I imagine. When you're dealing with a man like that, you are not going to want to antagonize, provoke, or anger him. because you have already seen what he's done to your leader. And I can't think of another president in living memory who would execute this type of plan. Trump's strength, and his greatest strength and his greatest weakness, in fact, is his boldness.

So if you are up against an adversary like that, would you antagonize them? Would you want to play games? Or would you actually realize that if you want to keep your position, if you want to keep your position, if you want to keep your hold on power and most of all if you want to stay alive probably this isn't the guy to mess around with now only time will tell if what I think will if my position turns out to be correct

but if I was Rodriguez there is no way in hell that I would be messing around at this point it's particularly what happens to Maduro well let's turn a little bit to what's been happening in the West and the commentary in our mainstream media here in Britain and in America. It's been an interesting one.

So there's been the full range of perspectives all the way from a lot of people in the mainstream media banging on about international law and talking about... I mean, I saw one moronic tweet from, I think, John Simpson from the BBC talking about the fact that, well, this now means

that if China invades Taiwan, we don't have the moral legitimacy to criticize them. as if having the moral legitimacy to criticize China after invaded Taiwan would stop China invading Taiwan or we're going to provoke Russia into Russia is already invading Ukraine that's on the one hand on the other hand you have you know the Candace Owens of the world who are I can't they're blaming Israel somehow and then all the full spectrum of opinion in between

what have you made of the response in the West the response in the West has been very interesting particularly when you look at the position of Kirstama, who it's rare that I say this, but I actually had a real empathy for him because he knew that he didn't want to antagonize Donald Trump. The last thing he wanted to do was antagonize Trump. Our country is struggling.

The United States are one of our greatest allies, trade partners. The last thing he wants to do is piss Trump off, and especially when, as we've talked about, Trump is erratic, Trump's emotional. That could damage the relationship, it could damage the economy, etc., etc. But he also had pressure from the Labour Party, prominent members like Emily Thornbury, who was saying that, you know, that this is unacceptable. The reality is, when you look at the rhetoric, it doesn't matter. It really doesn't matter.

what we're seeing now with Trump's actions with his actions in Venezuela, in Iran, is the old order has now changed. This idea of international law, this idea of the, oh, you know, we have to respect, you know, sovereign nations, that's done. It's gone. Russia didn't play by those rules. And you could say that Russia haven't done badly out of it. and you're looking at America, America are going to play by their own rules.

And it goes back to what we know, all of us who watch, listen or read about history. It's the strong who set the agenda. If you've got the might and you win, you're right. And everybody else can talk or they can point the fingers at the blame. But the most powerful are the ones who dictate and set the agenda. gender. And if you're powerful enough, everybody else is going to fall in line. Well, yeah, it does seem like, you know, there's been a lot of talk about the international rules-based system. And it was a system that worked as long as everybody basically agreed

to do what the Americans wanted. And then, you know, as I've talked a lot in the past, about when you have a lot of people who are very excited about a multipolar world, well, welcome. This is what it looks like. This is what you wanted. You wanted a multipolar world. Now all the great powers are going to do what they want to do because multipolarity necessarily means competition. It means fighting and jostling for position. It means fighting for spheres of influence. And that is, of course, what you're now seeing. And what I think President Trump has done is recognized that reality, recognized the reality to effectively say, well, look, maybe, you know, international rules-based system is pretty.

good, but that is not what we have anymore. And if that's not what we have anymore, America has to look out for the interests of the United States and its broader alliance. And what's interesting for us here in the UK and in Europe, of course, as you mentioned, just how irrelevant Europe has made itself, just how irrelevant Britain has made itself, just how completely lacking in any kind of influence we now are. And it's partly because we are. are no longer effectively doing what we have to do to fund the military that is capable of pulling its weight. We do not have the resources.

We do not have the economies either to be able to contribute and to be able to punch at our weight, let alone above our weight in the world. And that is the reality that is being exposed every single time Donald Trump and his administration do something like this because people just look at it and go, Why would I talk to Kirstama? What's he going to do? Right? He's going to give me some nonsense about, you know,

diversities are greatest strength. And then, and, and that's basically all you're going to get. You're not, this is not anymore a credible ally for the United States, which is deeply embarrassing and absolutely not how it should be. And if you think about where the United Kingdom has been in terms of its alliance with the US, historically speaking, I don't think we've ever been. less relevant. Unfortunately, I agree with you. And it's not just us, Constantine. It's Europe in general. Of course. And you can see this by the way that Trump talks about Greenland. He's essentially

going and saying that, you know, maybe we're going to go after Greenland or maybe not, but we want Greenland. Before, this would have been complete anathema to an American president. They would have never said this in a million years. But the fact that Trump and the Trump administration is talking openly about Greenland and taking Greenland shows not only do they see us as weak, but they see us as utterly irrelevant. Because we all know if they want to go after Greenland and take Greenland, what's Denmark going to do? What's EU going to do? The reality is we are in a new world, and we've reverted back to almost to the pre-World War II order, where it was about strength, it was about power.

And we can see now that that's where we are. We have the Russians invading Ukraine. We have China glancing covetous eyes at Taiwan, and we have America literally taking the Venezuelan leader and his wife, openly saying to the Colombian president, you best fix up, mate, otherwise I'm going to come for you. And not only that, saying, you know what, we might take Greenland as well. The old world order and the world that we used to live in a few years ago, pre-Russia's invasion of Ukraine, that is gone, that is done, that is over. We're living in a new world now. And

As with all of these things, you have two options. We in the West, we in Europe, we in the UK have two options. We carry on and believing in international law and sovereign nations and oh, you can't do this and you can't do that. And I'm going to wave my fist at this and this unacceptable. Or you get with the program and you start developing policies and implementing those policies that are effective to live in this new world. Well, one of the things, you know, I'm not super excited about living in a world where Mike makes right.

And the fact that we've ended up here is not necessarily a good thing, I feel. But, you know, you and I have talked about this for a long time, which is ultimately, if you are dealing with other people who are willing to cheat, lie, steal, manipulate, attack, invade, etc., you need one of them on your team. If you cannot enforce world order through the United States being as dominant as it has been historically, and you have some kind of stability that is ensured through the mutually assured destruction of nuclear weapons, and we have a great episode with Eric Weinstein coming out about just the exact impact nuclear weapons have had on the safety of the world, but also the risk, of course. what you end up with is this situation where it's sort of every great power for itself. And ultimately, as people who live in the West and believe in the West and want the West to thrive,

we were always going to need people on our team, the Thatchers and the Regans of the world, who fundamentally recognize that the only way the West survives and thrives is if we're willing to be strong and willing to deal with enemies and adversaries when they directly threaten and challenge us. to the extent that that is what Trump is doing, I think it's a good thing. And, you know, one of the things that we should probably address is that a lot of people will say, well, if you defend this, you then support Russia's invasion of Ukraine. No, I don't support Russia's invasion of Ukraine, even if I did defend this, because I want our civilization to be strong and dominant.

And my opposition to Putin is based primarily in the fact that what he's doing is not in our interest. It's against our interest, not because it's about international law, which I always thought was a fiction and a ridiculous one of that. It's not something that can be enforced. A law is something that requires submission to an overarching authority that is backed by the use of force. If you don't follow the tax code in this country and you don't pay your fines, ultimately end of the day, men with guns will come to your house and arrest you. That's what will happen. But on the international stage, there is no such mechanism.

The UN, even if you believe it is that, is not capable of enforcing any of the international laws it so happily introduces and advocates for. So what you've got, effectively, is something that is not enforceable and it's therefore not an actual law. It was a voluntary agreement that has been repeatedly violated. And to realize that and act accordingly seems to me at least effective, the morality and ethics of it, obviously, is. a separate conversation. Completely, completely. And just, and I want to make clear as well that there's no glee in me saying this. This is simply stating of the fact of where we are.

But we also have to acknowledge, Constantine, that we have signed the declaration of our own complete irrelevance. Our behavior, this idea that we had somehow eliminated war, that we had eliminated conflict that we didn't need armies. What's the point of armies? You know, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's for the barbarians. We don't need that anymore. We're demilitarized.

Come on. It'll be fine. We don't need a Navy or an Air Force. Well, it turns out, actually, wars have been consistent throughout the entire history of the human being, and they will be until the day that we go extinct. And that's just an unpleasant reality. And one of the problems with the world that we have been living in is that we haven't been living in the real world.

We just haven't. We spent more than we have. We demand comfort and safety. We say that gender doesn't exist. All of these different fantasies that we've been entertaining. You can entertain fantasy. And you can entertain fantasy for a certain period of time. But eventually, you've got to wake up.

And the longer you leave the fantasy running, the more harsh the wake-up call is going to be. And to be brutally honest, for us in the West and particularly in Europe, we're facing a really harsh wake-up call. It started with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and it's going to carry on getting more. Mom, can you tell me a story? Sure.

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Delivery fees may apply. And we need to see this as a wake-up call, and we need to get our own house in order. what's interesting to me is how ignorant people have become about this and it it sparks a rise of people who simply don't understand you know why do we why do we go why why can we just have peace well everyone would love peace but if you look at you know Thomas Sol I think I think it's a Thomas Sol line that the best way to predict human behavior is to look at human behavior in the past and if you look at you know I've got a friend of us gave me Winston Churchill

history of the English-speaking people, which I'm reading now. It's a fascinating set of books, which I'm really enjoying. I mean, when you read history, it's almost always all about war. It's defined by war. It's like every English and British king and Saxon king, et cetera, before that, they all, the entire lives were defined by having to defend their country and or advance its interest against enemies and adversaries. That is what it is.

And President Trump is effectively recognizing that reality through his behavior. So I think there's been a lot of naivete, as you say, in the West, on all sides. You know, you've got the people who think that if we just sat in our country, whether that country is Britain and America and didn't touch anyone, no one would touch us. Well, that's not how the world works. Because when you retreat from the world, the world comes to your borders. And that's ultimately what America has been dealing with when you've got charge. influence all over its neighboring countries and in fact within the United States itself.

Likewise, if you want American interests to be well-tended to, you're going to have to go out and take care of them. That does not mean you have to go into Iraq or Afghanistan and stay there for 20 years and lose thousands of people and spend trillions of dollars. You can be smart with it, which I think is what Trump is showing. But what he has done with first with the strikes on Iran and now with Venezuela, is give a massive smackdown to anybody who thought that this is their time to challenge American dominance. Completely.

And the reason that Venezuela has been the focal point is because it is geographical proximity to the United States, but also how rich in resources it is, not just all, but all of the rest of it. And you can, if you're talking about power, if you're talking about strength, you can't have a leader like, Maduro, doing what he was doing, openly flaunting his alliance with your enemies, supporting your enemies, having terrorist training camps, and not only that, but gleefully taking two fingers to you. If you are going to be a nation that is run through strength and power, eventually there's going to be one provocation too many. And that's what happened with Maduro. The rumor is, is that there were months of negotiations where they said,

Trump said this himself, where they actually said to him, we are going to manage your exit. You can leave. You can actually leave and do like a lot of Venezuelan presidents and go and live Costa Rica or some other country and you'll be safe and nothing will happen to you. We guarantee it. He refused. He carried on flaunting his alliances. He kept giving the two fingers. And in the end, he paid the price. And I think that is just an aperitif for what we're going to see in 2026. It's going to be fascinating to see how the Chinese react. The Chinese are already saying that, you know, that they had agreements with Venezuela. These agreements must be honored. We're going to see if Americans are going to honor that agreement or if there's going to be

another conflict. Yeah, I don't think so. I don't think that's likely, mate. But we will see what happens. Obviously, it's a fast developing situation. We should say, of course, our hopes are that the people of Venezuela finally have a government that looks after their interests and ensures that they can finally live in prosperity and enjoy all the benefits of the tremendous resources that you've been talking about. Before we wrap up, is there anything else that you feel we didn't mention in this conversation that we should talk about? So, no, I think we have pretty much covered everything. We've smashed it, guys. We've absolutely destroyed this conversation. Thank you for tuning in. Of course, if there are more updates, if there are any significant changes,

we will do another one of these streams. In the meantime, of course, we've got amazing episodes coming out over the next few weeks of the new year. Thank you for being here. A lot of you have sent super chats, which we really appreciate. Thanks for your questions, for your suggestions. And thanks for tuning in. When there is more to share with you, we will do so in the meantime, if you're not already a subscriber, make sure you click subscribe right now so that you're updated the next time there's a conversation or an episode goes out. And we very much look forward to being with you in 2026. It's going to be a great year for us because the world's going to shit.

Indeed it is. And there's never been a better time to watch or listen to Trigonometry to keep your company as we all go down the proverbial. When you fly with Hawaiian Airlines, The whole family enjoys free access to Starlink, the fastest Wi-Fi in the sky, thanks to T-Mobile. Stream, scroll, message, and game while sipping a passion orange guava juice. Everyone stays entertained and your vacation gets a head start. Enjoy every moment of your trip, even before you land. Hawaii starts here.

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