Trump's Trials - Former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics discusses future of U.S. labor data

Episode Date: September 8, 2025

NPR's Leila Fadel speaks with Erica Groshen, former head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, about employment data and what politicization of the agency could do to future numbers.Support NPR and hear every episode of Trump's Terms sponsor-free with NPR+. Sign up at plus.npr.org.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

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Now. And I'm Leila Faudill. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases some key employment numbers tomorrow for an update on job growth. Overall, the signs point to an economic slowdown, even though unemployment numbers remain at historic lows. You probably remember that President Trump recently fired the BLS Commissioner because he didn't like what a recent jobs report showed that hiring in the U.S. had dropped. The president claimed at that time with zero evidence. that the numbers were rigged. So if the president fires people, when he doesn't like the data, can the numbers now be trusted? To talk about that, we're joined by former BLS Commissioner, Erica Groshen. Good morning, and welcome back to the program. Good morning, Leila. Happy to be here. So on Friday, we had another jobs report come out, the first jobs data since Trump fired the commissioner. And once again, the numbers were not great. They show the labor market is stalling. Do you trust that report? Yes, I do. The acting commissioner is Bill Yatrowski, who was deputy commissioner. He's a civil

servant at BLS lifer. In fact, I appointed him to be deputy commissioner. And I'm sure that that number was the same goal standard as always. The last time we spoke, you were concerned that a move like firing the commissioner over numbers that the president doesn't like would politicize the Bureau or as an attempt to politicize the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is supposed to be free of politics. But at this point, it sounds like you feel like the public can trust the numbers. That hasn't happened. It hasn't been politicized. Is that right? That's right. I don't think that the numbers have been politicized at all yet. But of course, I do have fears that they might be in the future. And I will say that I think that the firing of the commissioner was bad for trust in the numbers.

And that's because some people will find the administration's attacks credible, and therefore they will lose faith in the trustworthiness of the data, even though it's not any worse. And those who don't find the charges credible may well lose trust because of the changes that they expect the administration to make. Now, you keep in touch with people at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What's the mood like internally? I understand that there is a real hit on morale. And this is on top of doing their very best to continue to produce goal standard data, even though staffing is down by 20%, and the third of their top leadership positions are vacant. Wow. Is there any criticism of the Bureau of Labor statistics that you deem fair? I mean, there have been big revisions to the dad.

And people have pointed out problems. I mean, before Trump's attacks on the job numbers, for example, that far fewer people actually respond to surveys from the BLS than they did before. So is the data really an accurate picture of what's happening with the economy? I mean, is there anything that does need to change when it comes to data gathering and employment statistics? Oh, absolutely. Statistical agencies need to be continually modernizing because the economy's changing, technologies, changing, the questions that people ask are changing. At the same time that these response rates

are falling, we have burgeoning other sources of data. And so that means the agency should be pivoting towards creating new kinds of measures in new ways and collecting data in new ways. And unfortunately, that requires an investment. And instead of being funded to be able to make those modernizations. The funding for the agency has declined by 20% in last 15 years, and this administration is proposing cutting it by another 8%. That's Erica Groshen, a former head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and currently the Senior Economic Advisor at Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Thank you so much for your time and your insights. My pleasure. Before we wrap up a reminder, you can find more coverage of the Trump administration on the NPR Politics podcast, where you can hear NPR's political reporters break down the day's biggest political news with new episodes every weekday afternoon.

And thanks, as always, to our NPR Plus supporters who hear every episode of the show without sponsor messages. You can learn more at plus.npr.org. I'm Scott Detrow. Thanks for listening to Trump's terms from NPR. are.