UNBIASED - January 5, 2026: (SPECIAL REPORT) Everything You Need to Know About the Venezuelan Operation and Capture of Nicolás Maduro.

Episode Date: January 5, 2026

SUBSCRIBE TO JORDAN'S FREE NEWSLETTER. Get the facts, without the spin. UNBIASED offers a clear, impartial recap of US news, including politics, elections, legal news, and more. Hosted by lawyer Jordan Berman, each episode provides a recap of current political events plus breakdowns of complex concepts—like constitutional rights, recent Supreme Court rulings, and new legislation—in an easy-to-understand way. No personal opinions, just the facts you need to stay informed on the daily news that matters. If you miss how journalism used to be, you're in the right place. In today's episode, Jordan is covering everything you need to know about the operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro. Throughout the episode, she answers the following questions: Who is Nicolás Maduro? How did the operation unfold? WHY was Maduro captured and brought back to the U.S.? Did this really have to do with drugs? Or does it have to do with oil? What have the reactions been on all sides? Did this operation break international law? Did President Trump need congressional authorization? Is it legal for the United States to capture and prosecute another foreign leader? What did Trump mean when he said the United States will "run" Venezuela? What can we expect from here? Critical Thinking Segment SUBSCRIBE TO JORDAN'S FREE NEWSLETTER. Watch this episode on YouTube. Follow Jordan on Instagram and TikTok. All sources for this episode can be found here.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome back to Unbiased, your favorite source of unbiased news and legal analysis. Welcome back to Unbiased Politics. Today is Monday, January 5th, and we are back for the first episode of 2026. It's only right that we start this year with a special report. I know that you guys have a ton of questions about Venezuela and, you know, the capture of Nicholas Maduro. So we're going to cover it all. Before we do, I do need to tell you that I am a little sick. You've probably heard it already.

It's pretty obvious. Of course, I would get sick. before that I, the day before I officially returned to the microphone. So now you guys have to unfortunately listen to my deep raspy voice for the next 40 to 50 minutes. So I'm very, very, very sorry about that. Unfortunately, I can't really do anything about it. I did the spoonfuls of honey. I've been drinking the tea. I've been trying to do what I can. But I wasn't going to miss out on my first episode back. So we are going to do our best to get through this episode because there's a lot to talk about. Now, I do want to caution you that you have to be able to understand

or at least be open to understanding nuance to fully listen to and digest this episode. Geopolitical matters and foreign policy are incredibly complex. It's not black and white at all. So just know that going into this episode. I'll go on a few different tangents throughout the episode, though it all ties into the same story. And then by the end of the episode, you'll see how nuance all of this really is. I'll start with the basics. Who is Maduro? Why was he taken? How was he taken? And then we'll get into the reactions on a lot. all sides, whether this broke international law and what that means, whether Trump needed congressional authorization to strike, and much, much more. So first, who is Nicholas Maduro? Nicholas Maduro is a

Venezuelan politician and former union organizer who got to where he is today by rising through the ranks of the socialist movement led by former president Hugo Chavez. Before getting into politics, Maduro was actually a bus driver. But eventually, he ended up serving as foreign minister under Chavez from 2006 until early 2013. He was ultimately appointed Chavez's vice president. And then when Chavez died shortly thereafter in 2013, Maduro assumed the office of the presidency. Now, when Chavez died in 2013, Venezuela's constitution required the vice president to become interim president and a special election to take place within 30 days. So Maduro became interim president immediately upon Chavez's death and then ran in the special election. And Maduro won that special election by

about 1.5 percentage points. However, the opposition at the time did immediately launch allegations of abuse of state resources, media control, and voter intimidation, and demanded a recount. The government refused a comprehensive audit and the Supreme Court certified the result. Keep in mind, though, at this point in time, Maduro was considered to be the rightly elected president of Venezuela. It wasn't until later that that changed. Now, when Maduro assumed the presidency in 2013, Venezuela's economy was already struggling. But under Maduro, it got much, much worse. It started to just completely collapse. And when I say collapse, this is what I mean. When Chavez died in 2013, Venezuela's economy was almost

entirely dependent on oil. About 95% of Venezuela's export revenue came from oil. About 50 to 60% of all government revenue came from oil. So this is to say that Venezuela's oil was the financial backbone of the entire state. In fact, the state oil company, Peta Besa, is what funded government salaries, food subsidies, health care imports, social programs. So when global oil prices began to crash in 2014, Venezuela's main source of revenue essentially plummeted overnight. And this was catastrophic for a country that already had a weak economy and one whose entire economy is dependent on oil. Because this meant there was no money for food, medicine, medical equipment, electricity, infrastructure, social programs, etc. When Venezuela's revenue fell,

it didn't have any money to pay foreign suppliers for food, which then led to a food shortage. At the same time, price controls made it unprofitable for local producers to sell food, and smuggling and black markets took off. So the Venezuelan people experienced not just higher prices, but food scarcity, long lines, rationing, and eventually malnutrition. It wasn't just the food, though. As I said, there were medicine shortages that were even worse. Venezuela imported most pharmaceuticals and hospitals relied on foreign supplies. So all of the sudden, there were no more antibiotics, cancer treatments were stopped, insulin shortages became common. Doctors and hospitals couldn't access basic surgical supplies.

Now, this is where sanctions kind of come in. And the reason they come in here is because the United States imposed the first sanctions on Venezuela in 2014 and 2015. And there's a misconception that these sanctions are what caused the economy to collapse. But these sanctions contributed to the inability for Venezuela to come back from what it was experiencing in its economy, but it did not cause the collapse. So the original 2014 and 2015 sanctions that the United States imposed on Venezuela were imposed in response to Venezuela's democratic backsliding under Maduro, disputed elections, the sidelines, of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, allegations of human rights abuses during protests, corruption allegations against senior officials.

So basically, the U.S. imposed these initial sanctions against Venezuela to pressure the Venezuelan government to act right. And since then, additional sanctions have been imposed, but the reason we have to mention these initial sanctions is because, again, these were imposed while Venezuela's economy was collapsing. So it only made things worse for the country. But it's important to remember that the worst of Venezuela's economic collapse began before U.S. sanctions were imposed. However, once those sanctions were imposed, they made the already failing system even harder to recover from because, of course, sanctions restricted Venezuela's access to international financing, limited its ability to sell oil on global markets, made it harder to import goods even when money was available.

So again, sanctions didn't cause the collapse, but sanctions did tighten the constraints on a country that was already struggling. Once Venezuela could no longer rely on oil exports to bring in money, it turned to illegal activities like drug trafficking. And we'll touch more on this later in the episode because I want to get back to Maduro himself for now. I just think the history of Venezuela's economy under Maduro's regime is very important to understanding the full picture. So, as I said, Maduro was officially elected in 2013. things really start to tank in 2014 when global oil prices drop. In 2015, the opposition won control of the National Assembly, which the National Assembly plays a similar role in Venezuela as Congress plays here in the United States.

Roughly two years later, when Maduro was continuing to fight against the opposition in the National Assembly, he created this new constituent assembly, which basically just replaced the elected legislature with people that he wanted. Then in 2018, more election issues. Opposition candidates were jailed, banned, exiled. The election date was suddenly moved up and Majero, quote unquote, won that election. But a lot of countries like the United States, Canada, and the EU refused to recognize the result. And from that point forward is when Maduro is described as illegitimate by foreign governments and the majority of the Venezuelan population. Most recently, Venezuela held an election in 2024 to elect a president for a six-year term beginning January 21st, 25. There were two main opposition candidates running against Maduro, Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Machado. Machado was ultimately disqualified from the race by the Venezuelan government, but Gonzalez was still able to run. And opposition groups and independent analysts said their own tally sheets and parallel counting showed Gonzalez had actually won that election

by a very wide margin. But Venezuela's government-controlled National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner with about 52% of the vote. And again, international bodies like the Organization of American States and the UN said this election did not meet international democratic standards, mainly because the results were announced with no official breakdown of vote counts from polling stations. But nonetheless, despite what these international bodies said, Majuro remained in office. And that is why most countries, world leaders, and the people of Venezuela do not call him the president of Venezuela.

He's instead referred to as an illegitimate leader, a dictator, de facto ruler, autocrat, or an authoritarian leader. So that's a little bit about Maduro himself. Now, let's talk about how the operation unfolded. The operation is called Operation Absolute Resolve, and it actually started months ago. As early as August, there were CIA personnel on the ground in Venezuela with the goal of gathering Intel on Maduro, where he lived, where he traveled, how he traveled, what he ate, when he ate, what he wore, even the names of his pets. essentially just gathering any and all information that they could. Meanwhile, here in the United States, special forces were training for months for this operation. They built a replica of Majero's compound, and they used that as practice, similar to what the U.S. troops did leading up to the

killing of Osama bin Laden, which, by the way, if you have not watched the newest documentary American manhunt, Osama bin Laden, highly, highly, highly recommend. So while CIA personnel were on the ground in Venezuela and special forces were training for the operation here in the United States, an administration team worked in secret holding regular meetings and phone calls and briefing the president. This team included but was not limited to individuals like Secretary of State Marker Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Heggseth, CIA director John Bratcliffe, and White House Deputy Chief of Staff, Stephen Miller. As the months went on, we know that Trump repeatedly asked Maduro to step down. And we'll talk more about the why behind all of this in a little bit, but

Trump's most recent attempt took place last week. Trump said he called. called Maduro and told him that he had to surrender, essentially, but Maduro didn't want to do that. So the order was ultimately given to carry out absolute resolve. Now, according to people familiar with the operation, Trump had approved this operation before Christmas. But at that time, it wasn't clear when exactly the operation was going to be carried out. Then about four days after Christmas, the operation was supposed to be carried out, but it was called off due to weather.

And that brings us to this past Friday. late Friday night, 10.46 p.m. Eastern time to be exact, President Trump gave the order to the United States military, which launched 150 aircraft from 20 different land and sea bases. Helicopters carrying U.S. Special Forces and FBI agents flew just 100 feet over the Caribbean, while fighter jets, bombers, and drones flew above. As the helicopters entered Venezuelan airspace and got closer to Maduro's compound, they took out air defense systems in their path. They caught power in certain locations to create a blackout. And the strikes that were launched were specifically targeted military bases and a shipping port, though there was nearby damage, of course, to warehouses and cars and such. Cuban officials have said that 32 Cuban military and intelligence members were killed during the operation. It's unclear at this point how many Venezuelan citizens, if any, were killed. At 101 Eastern Time, 101 a.m. Eastern time or 201 a.m. local time, the special forces closed in on Maduro's compound. Meanwhile, back in Palm Beach, the president was watching a live

feed with the team of officials, that same team from the administration that we spoke about just a few minutes ago. According to Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Kane, Maduro and his wife were, quote, taken completely by surprise. And quote, Maduro, though, apparently tried to escape into his steel safe room, but he didn't make it in time and he was captured, as was his wife. As they were being taken into custody, more helicopters had arrived to help with the exfiltration, and fighter jets and drones were also there to provide overhead coverage and suppressive fire. According to Kane, there were multiple quote-unquote self-defense engagements as the troops were withdrawing, which led to some U.S. troops sustaining injuries, but no troops

were killed and those who were injured are stable. At 3.29 a.m. Eastern time, the U.S. military was back over the water. And roughly an hour later at 4.21 a.m., that's when Trump announced the operation on true social. He wrote, quote, the United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicholas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the country. This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. law enforcement details to follow. End quote. By 4.30 a.m. Maduro was in New York. He arrived at Stewart Airport in New Windsor, which is north of New York City. He and his wife were transported to a jail later

that day. And this morning, they made their first court appearance in New York City, which basically consisted of the judge informing them of their charges and then pleading not guilty. And I know a lot of you were curious as to why they were taken to New York City of all places. The answer is that when the charges were filed back in 2020. They were filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, which is in New York City. So once they were captured this weekend, they had to be taken to the jurisdiction where their indictments were filed. That is the only court that has jurisdiction to oversee this case. Okay, so we're going to take a quick break here to hear from the sponsors that keep the lights on. I'm going to drink some hot tea. And when we come

back, we will talk about why Maduro was captured. Repeat after me. 2026 is the year we are taking care of ourselves. 2026 is the year we are taking care of ourselves. And one of the ways that I like to take care of myself is with Nutraful, specifically the Nutriful women formula. It's really helped me see less hair shedding and honestly has just helped with my confidence. You don't realize how hair shedding takes a toll on your confidence until it happens to you. Trust me on that.

So Nutraful is the number one dermatologist recommended hair growth supplement brand trusted by over one and a half million people. Neutrophol supplements are peer reviewed. NSF content certified and clinically tested to measure results in growth, quality, and strength helping you reach your hair goals with confidence. Now, consistency is key with NutriFle, but NutriFle makes staying consistent simple because they set you up for long-term success with things like automated deliveries, free shipping, up to 20% in savings, free one-on-one naturopathic doctor consults and a complementary headspace membership included. See thicker,

stronger, faster-growing hair with less shedding in just three to six. months with Nutraful. For a limited time, Nutraful is offering my listeners $10 off your first month's subscription and free shipping when you go to Nutraful.com and enter promo code unbiased. Find out why Nutraful is the best-selling hair grow supplement brand at Nutraful.com, spelled N-U-T-R-A-F-O-L-L-com promo code unbiased. That's Nutraful.com promo code unbiased. So I'm trying to be better about my finances. you guys know this. I've told you this. And one of the ways I'm doing that is by using Rocket Money because I had heard amazing things from hosts of other podcasts that I listened to. And lo and behold, I log on to my account and find out that I have been paying $27 a month,

$326 a year on this random subscription for a toll-free number that I've never even used. Okay, I bought this number years ago thinking I was going to use it for a project and I never did. And apparently I forgot to cancel it because for the last two years, I've just been throwing money out the window, which is totally insane to me, but I never would have known if it weren't for Rocket Money. And the beautiful thing about Rocket Money is that not only does it organize these subscriptions for you so you can easily see what you're spending your money on and what your money is going towards, but you can also cancel your subscription within the app with just a few clicks. So Rocket Money is a personal finance app that helps you find and cancel your unwanted subscriptions, monitoring. to charge your spending, helps lower your bills so you can grow your savings, you can get real-time alerts for bigger transactions, upcoming bills, refunds, and low balances. I truly think that everyone should have this app. Let RocketMoney help you reach your financial goals faster. Join at RocketMoney.com slash unbiased. That's rocketmoney.com slash unbiased. Rocketmoney.com slash unbiased. We all know health issues do not follow a

9 to 5 schedule like most of us do. With Zoc Doc, having no time to book a doctor's appointment is actually no problem. So the next time you finally get around to calling the doctor at 11 p.m. when all the offices are closed or you cut your finger making a midnight snack or you're doom scrolling and panicking about your symptoms at 3 a.m. I want you to use Zoc Doc. Zococ is a free app and website that helps you find and book high quality in network doctors so you can find someone you love, whether you're looking for dermatology, dentistry, primary care, eye care, or one of the other 200 plus specialties offered on Zoc Doc, you can easily search by specialty or symptom to find the doctor that's right for you. And you can read through thousands of verified

patient reviews to give you a sense of who the doctor is so you feel even better about the appointment that you're making. But what I especially love about Zoc Doc, and this brings me back to the 11 p.m. availability, cutting your finger making at midnight. snack, doom scrolling at 3 a.m. You can instantly book an appointment right there on Zock. You do not have to wait for the doctor's office to open the next day. So stop putting off those doctor's appointments and go to Zocdoc.com slash unbiased to find and instantly book a doctor you love today. That's ZOC, doc.com slash unbiased. Zocdoc.com slash unbiased. Thanks Zok doc for sponsoring this message.

Welcome back. Okay, before we get back into the discussion, I just want to say, if you are still here with me, thank you so much. I'm so sorry that my voice sounds like this. I know it's totally out of my control, but I can imagine for some of you, it may sound a little bit annoying. So thank you so much for sticking with me. Okay.

We have covered who Maduro is, how the operation was carried down. out, but now I want to talk about why Maduro was captured and brought to the United States. And I need you to kind of bear with me here because there are a few reasons and theories. Some require us to go a little bit deeper. So we're going to start with the surface level stuff. The basis for Maduro's capture is his indictment. Maduro and five alleged co-conspirators, including his wife, are facing various charges. But Maduro specifically is facing charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation

conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices. Now, let's pretend we're sitting in a law school classroom real quick and quickly talk about what conspiracy means. And I'm going to make this really simple. A conspiracy is in agreement between two or more people to commit an illegal act or to achieve a goal through illegal means. So to engage in a conspiracy, there has to be a mutual understanding between at least two people with the specific intent to agree and an intent to achieve the criminal objective. That is a conspiracy.

So when we see charges like narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, conspiracy to possess machine guns, it means that Maduro allegedly had an agreement with at least one other person to commit narco-terrorism, import cocaine to the United States and to possess machine guns. It's not that Maduro himself imported cocaine. Otherwise, his charge would be cocaine importation. That's different. It's that he had agreements with others to import cocaine. So I just want to make sure we're clear on the conspiracy part of these charges. The indictment alleges in part, quote, for over 25 years, leaders of Venezuela have abused their positions of public trust and corrupted once legitimate institutions to import

tons of cocaine into the United States. Nicholas Maduro is at the forefront of that corruption and has partnered with his co-conspirators to use his illegally obtained authority and the institutions he corroded to transport thousands of tons of cocaine into the United States. As Venezuela's president and now de facto ruler, Maduro allows cocaine-fueled corruption to flourish for his own benefit, for the benefit of members of his ruling regime, and for the benefit of his family members. Nicholas Maduro now sits atop a corrupt, illegitimate government that four decades has leveraged government power to protect and promote illegal activity, including drug trafficking. The cycle of narcotics-based corruption lines the pockets of

Venezuelan officials and their families while also benefiting violent narco-terrorists who operate with impunity on Venezuelan soil and who help produce, protect, and transport tons of cocaine to the United States. In some, Maduro and his co-conspirators have four. decades partnered with some of the most violent and prolific drug traffickers and narco-terrorists in the world and relied on corrupt officials throughout the region to distribute tons of cocaine to the United States. End quote. So the administration is basically saying that this operation was carried out because, number one, Maduro is a corrupt leader who, number two, has played a big role in importing cocaine illegally to the United States. And that's true, by the way. That's

undisputed. He is corrupt and he does have his hand in drug trafficking, okay? For decades, even under President Chavez, drug networks have penetrated the highest levels of the Venezuelan state to the point now where the Venezuelan state is the cartel. So, as I said, the drug issue, it's undisputed. But there's this other question of, is there more to this than just drugs? Specifically, does this have to do with Venezuelan oil? Does this have to do with forcing a regime change? And the answer is that all these are all pieces of the puzzle. The answer is not just one thing. It's all of it. So let's talk about the oil piece. The Venezuelan government says the sole purpose of this attack was to gain control of

Venezuelan oil resources. And some lawmakers and commentators here in the United States have similarly said that the administration is only trying to regain control over Venezuelan oil infrastructure and benefit American energy companies. Senator Chris Van Hollen is one of the lawmakers. He said, quote, this has never been about stock. dropping drugs from coming to the United States. We all support stopping drugs. This from the beginning has been about getting rid of Maduro, grabbing Venezuela's oil for American oil companies and Trump's billionaire buddies. That's what this is about. That's why Donald Trump spent so much time yesterday talking about oil, end quote. And the remarks that Van Hollen is referencing

there were remarks made by Trump during his Saturday news conference after this operation. So Trump said during that news conference, quote, we're going to stay. in Venezuela until such time as the proper transition can take place. As everyone knows, the oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust for a long period of time. They were pumping almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been pumping and what could have taken place. We're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, and start making money for the country, end quote. He later said in that same news conference, quote,

we're going to rebuild the oil infrastructure, which will cost billions of dollars. It'll be paid for by the oil companies directly. They'll be reimbursed for what they're doing, but that's going to be paid and we're going to get the oil flowing the way it should be. End quote. So is oil playing a part in Maduro's capture? Perhaps. But why? To understand the why, we have to take a look not only at history, but also at the geopolitical context. So first and foremost, Venezuela holds the world's largest crude oil reserves, estimated at more than 300 billion barrels. But it's important to note that not all oil is the same. So some oil is easier to refine, other oil is harder to refine.

Venezuela's oil is very thick and very heavy. This makes it very difficult to refine. and with oil like this, only certain refineries are capable of processing it. The United States has those refineries. So keep that in mind as we move through this. Venezuelan oil was discovered back in the 1920s. And guess who got involved right away, the United States? So much so to the point that American oil companies essentially built Venezuela's oil industry

because Venezuela didn't have the infrastructure or the equipment to do so. Venezuela was a poor country at the time. time. But with the help of the United States, Venezuela became one of the world's top oil exporters very quickly. And because of that, Venezuela also became one of the richest countries. So fast forward to 1976 when Venezuela nationalized its oil industry and created Peda Vesa, the state-owned oil company that I mentioned earlier. Venezuela did this to have more control over its oil and essentially end foreign control. But the U.S. and Venezuela were still very much working together because the United States had the refineries that Venezuela needed to process all of its oil

and that benefited both Venezuela and American oil companies because Venezuela was able to refine more oil than it would if it were only utilizing its own much less capable refineries and American oil companies were making a profit from helping Venezuela. So the partnership worked until things started to go south. In 2003, President Chavez essentially purged Peda Vesa. He fired roughly 18,000 workers, including senior engineers, geologists, refinery managers, and operation specialists. And instead of replacing them with equally skilled people, he replaced them with loyalists.

And what this did is fundamentally change how Pita Vesa functioned. It basically went from one of the most professionally run oil companies in the developing world to a corrupt, operationally incompetent company. Despite the purge, though, oil prices stayed very high between 2003 and 2013. So Venezuela's economy was fine. It didn't necessarily matter that Chavez had changed the, you know, basically like the bones of this company. the Venezuelan government was still able to fund social programs. It was still able to import food, import medicine, et cetera, because oil prices were still so high. So it didn't matter how operationally incompetent Pita Besa was. But when global oil prices collapsed in 2014, that is when Venezuela lost it all. And it couldn't respond to the crisis because over the last 10 years, an infrastructure had broken down. Funds had been funds were not being saved, and Peda Vesa was operationally incompetent, and that oil obviously

made up all of Venezuela's economy, essentially. By 2017, Venezuela's oil production fell to 20% of its total capacity. That is a massive drop. But even during this time, Venezuela was still selling the little oil it was producing to the United States. It wasn't until 2019 during Trump's first administration that the United States imposed oil-related sanctions on Venezuela. Trump basically imposed an embargo on Peta Besa to try to get Maduro to hold free and fair elections. And the sanctions that were, you know, previously imposed because we talked about sanctions being imposed initially in 2014, those didn't work. So Trump moved on to oil, which still didn't result in free and fair elections. But what it did do is it deepened the tension between the United States

in Venezuela. Now, because Venezuela's economy was collapsing and they couldn't sell their oil to the United States anymore, a few things happened. Number one, Venezuela started to rely on revenue from drug trafficking. And number two, China became the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil. And this is where geopolitical context comes in. Not only has China become the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil, But as of 2020, Iran started sending tanker shipments of fuel and refined products to Venezuela to ease their shortages and started helping in repairing Venezuela's oil infrastructure. Now, naturally, this is only deepening Venezuela's economic ties with the United States or deepening Venezuela's ties with the United States's geopolitical rivals. So given the role oil is playing in bringing Venezuela close to. to our adversaries, given Venezuela's location in the Western Hemisphere, and given Trump's

remarks about U.S. oil companies investing in Venezuela's oil now that Maduro has been captured, some are arguing that oil was the primary motive for capturing Maduro and that this isn't about drugs. Others, though, say that's not the case. They cite the fact that just last month, or two months ago now, Maduro offered Trump all of Venezuela's resources, including Venezuela's oil, if Trump would just leave him alone. Because keep in mind, Trump has been trying to get Maduro to step down for months and months. So those people argue that if this was really just about oil, Trump could have just accepted Maduro's offer. But he didn't.

Now, the third piece of this puzzle is regime change. Could this operation have been carried out to force a regime change in Venezuela? Possibly. And again, this theory goes back to a point that we've touched on multiple times throughout this. episode, which is that the Venezuelan government is corrupt. Maduro is corrupt. He doesn't hold fair and free elections, despite the United States's multiple attempts to get him to cooperate. And the United States wants an ally in Venezuela. The United States doesn't want Venezuela to be an adversary that is helping China, Russia, and Iran. And one way for the United States to

fix that is by forcing a regime change and getting Maduro out. But also, keep in mind, the regime is still very much in place, despite this operation. Maduro's vice president, Delci Rodriguez, is now the interim president in Venezuela. The interior minister who currently has a $25 million price on his head and has been indicted by the United States is still in place. The defense minister who has deep ties to Russia and a $15 million price on his head is still in place. So yes, Maduro is gone.

And that's potentially the start of a regime change. but the regime, for the most part, is still there. So as I've said, this is a puzzle that has multiple pieces. And the answer to the question, why was this operation carried out, is complex. It's nuanced, as are most things. What we don't know is how big or small each piece of the puzzle is. How much of a role is oil playing all of this? How much of a role is a regime change playing?

How much of a role is drug trafficking playing? That's what we don't know. and unfortunately, neither you nor I are, you know, in the briefing rooms and we just don't know the answers to those things. But it's all of those pieces. Speaking of complexities, the next question is, what are the reactions on all sides? We'll start with Venezuela. In Venezuela, most people are expressing a mix of joy and uncertainty. So the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans are celebrating Maduro's capture. At the same time, though, they're hesitant, right? They don't know what to expect from here. So they see Maduro's capture as long-awaited justice and a great thing, but they're not

sure what comes next, not only politically, but also in terms of stability. What will the interim government look like? Will true democracy be restored? How will Venezuelan sovereignty be handled under temporary U.S. influence? Will there be violence? All of these are questions that Venezuelans have at the moment, especially those within Venezuela. Now, there are also some Venezuelans who support Maduro and are not happy about this operation. They see this as an illegal capture, unnecessary foreign intervention. They see this as a kidnapping rather than a lawful arrest. But I do want to point out that most Venezuelans do not support Maduro.

As of July 2024, Maduro had the lowest approval rating of 16 different presidents in Latin America and the Caribbean with just 21%. The only Latin American president behind him is the president of Cuba, who had a 14% approval rating as of 2022. Here in the United States, the difference in opinion is very much along party lines. Those who don't like Trump generally oppose the action. Those who support Trump generally support the action. Republican leaders and many of Trump's allies are, you know, praising the operation as a decisive enforcement and praising Trump's ability to take action given the longstanding. indictments against Maduro, while Democratic leaders and critics have condemned the

operation. And they argue that this was carried out without congressional approval and in violation of international law and could be illegal or destabilizing. So critics are arguing that this intervention oversteps constitutional war powers. It was done for selfish reasons, aka oil interests, and could jeopardize U.S. security should adversaries take retaliatory action against the United States. Generally, people on both sides of the aisle agree that Maduro is a terrible leader and should be replaced. But the disagreement is over how the United States got involved and how this operation was carried out. Let's take our second and final break here.

When we come back, we'll talk about whether this operation broke international law and whether Trump needed congressional authorization to do it. Welcome back. The next question that we have to answer in this discussion is, did this operation break international law? And the answer is not clear. Are you surprised? The reason the answer isn't clear is because, as we've talked about in many, many episodes in the past, an argument can almost always be made one way or the other, one way or the other. So under international law, states are typically prohibited from, you know, using force against another sovereign state unless they have UN Security Council authorization or the force is in self-defense after either an armed attack or an imminent armed attack. Now, we know the United States did not get UN authorization prior to the operation, so that doesn't apply here. But that leaves the self-defense exception. And that's where most of the debate is happening. Most legal experts agree that drug trafficking allegations alone don't meet the legal standard for imminent threat that would justify military force. Under mainstream international

law, it's typically not enough that there are criminal indictments against someone or drug trafficking allegations, human rights abuses, disputed elections, or claims that a leader is illegitimate. So those that say that this was a violation of international law argue that, one, the United States didn't have UN authorization. And two, this was not done in self-defense after an armed attack or imminent armed attack. And therefore, the operation was a blatant violation of international law. However, on the other side of the debate, some say there are legal arguments to support the legality of the operation. And their argument ties back to that imminent threat language. So they argue that large scale drug trafficking tied to state actors like that which

Maduro was involved in is an ongoing armed threat and that the harm is ongoing rather than just a single pass act. Therefore, imminence is interpreted more broadly under this argument and armed is interpreted more broadly as well. We're not talking about weapons. We're talking about potentially lethal drugs. This argument is sometimes referred to as expanded self-defense. Then outside of the UN charter, those that support the legality of the operation, argue that the operation shouldn't be considered force. It shouldn't be considered a war. Instead, it should be considered law enforcement. So that argument relies on the idea that this wasn't force against a sovereign state, but rather the apprehension of an

indicted individual and therefore the UN's prohibition on force doesn't apply at all. Now here's the other thing. International law is only as real as it is enforceable, right? And some of you might hear that and say, no, no, no, international law is very real regardless of whether it's enforced. And yes, that is true. But what I mean is that international law has no effect if it doesn't get enforced. In order to be enforceable, a country has to hand over its own leaders to international court. And that just doesn't happen. And that's also why we've seen various violations of international law across the globe spanning many years. Various past U.S. presidents have broken international law, President Putin, Prime Minister Netanyahu. All of these people

have violated international law, but there are no real consequences. So this is to say that even if Trump did break international law and carrying out this operation, nothing will change. Maduro will stay in the United States so long as the United States wants him to, he'll still face trial, he'll still sit in the United States jail if he's eventually found guilty. So that's the international law component. But that takes us to the next question, which is, did President Trump have or did he need congressional authorization to strike? He did not have congressional authorization to strike, but did he need it? That's the real question. And again, the answer is not totally clear. Under U.S. law, only Congress has the authority to declare war, right? Right. But the president has

something called Article 2 powers. Per Article 2 of the Constitution, the president is the commander-in-chief of the military. So there is an argument to be made that the president has the authority to direct the military and take military action on his own without approval from Congress. And this is an argument that's been used by every U.S. president in recent history specifically to justify temporary and specific military strikes. President Clinton in Kosovo, President W. Bush in Yemen, President Obama in Libya, President Biden in Syria, and President Trump in Iran, well, Venezuela most recently, but Iran before that.

Not to mention, there's something called the 1973 War Powers Resolution. The War Powers Resolution allows the President to take military action without congressional approval, But it does require the president to submit a report to Congress within 48 hours of that action. And the report has to include things like the legal basis for the action, the circumstances requiring the use of force, the scope and expected duration of deployment. But this is just a notification to Congress. It's not a request for approval. Under the war powers resolution, military action by the president is limited to up to 90 days without congressional approval. This is yet another basis for a president to authorize military action without Congress's approval.

So did Trump need congressional authorization to strike? There's an argument to be had on both sides of that. That's a question that's been posed at various times throughout the last, at least six administrations, and we have yet to get a clear-cut answer. Now, we have one more legal question to answer. Is it legal for the United States to capture and prosecute a foreign leader? So the Supreme Court of the United States has held that a defendant can generally still stand trial in the United States regardless of how they are brought into the United States, even if they were brought in illegally.

This is called the Kerfersby Doctrine, and it says that an illegal or forcible capture does not by itself invalidate a criminal prosecution. But things obviously get a little more complicated when the defendant is a foreign leader, and then even more complicated when the United States government doesn't recognize that person as a legitimate leader. So sitting heads of state are typically entitled to immunity under U.S. law, which shields them from prosecution while they are recognized as legitimate leaders. But U.S. courts do not decide who is legitimate on their own. The courts actually rely on the executive branch to make that determination. And in Maduro's case, the United States had already withdrawn recognition of him as Venezuela's legitimate president, even before the capture. Because of that, the administration

can argue that Madera was not entitled to this head of state immunity at the time of his capture. And once that immunity is removed, the Kerr-Frisby doctrine means the case can go forward regardless of how he was captured, even if that capture was illegal. Next question, why are people so worried that the United States is going to ruin Venezuela? This concern stems from past United States interventions that resulted in instability. So the most cited example is the Iraq war. When Saddam Hussein was captured and removed as Iraq's leader in 2003, the Iraqi state was not necessarily prepared for what came next. And that dismantling resulted in sectarian violence, insurgency, long-term instability, and it just kind of like

toppled the country. Another similar example is Libya. Following a U.S. backed intervention in 2011, Libya never fully stabilized. It fragmented into rival governments and it remains unstable to this day. So for critics, these examples suggest that while outside intervention or intervention by the United States specifically can easily remove a regime, the United States doesn't do a great job when it comes to building or helping to establish a new, reliable system of governance for the country's people. And without a new stable system of governance, the ordinary citizens of a country are the ones that are the most negatively impacted. But then there's another layer of concern related to Venezuela's oil. Some critics are worried that the United States will now prioritize oil production

over political stability and that economic decisions for Venezuela will now be driven by foreign interests, aka U.S. interests, rather than the best interests of the Venezuelan people. At the same time, supporters of this operation argue that Venezuela's economy has already been shaped for years by corruption and mismanagement, and that many economic decisions have not reflected the will or needs of the Venezuelan people. So there's really limited downside to U.S. intervention. Now, before we jump off to the next question, I do want to quickly touch on the situations in the Middle East because there have been some administration officials that have come out and touched on this concern where Venezuela is going to be the next Iraq or it's going to be

the next Libya or it's going to be the next Afghanistan. and officials have drawn a distinction between Venezuela and the Middle East. So basically they say, you know, Venezuela has this big opportunity to be our ally. And we have we have a ton of interest in helping them and making the country rich again because they're in the Western hemisphere. And, you know, we could work together in great ways. Whereas in the Middle East, the situation's different. It's just not that.

So that's just to give you a little bit of a counter. Now, the second to last question, what does Trump mean when he says the United States will run Venezuela? We are not entirely sure, but this is what we know as of today. At the Saturday news conference, Trump said, quote, we are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition. End quote. The following day, Secretary of State Rubio was asked about the United States' plan to run Venezuela. And his response was essentially that the United States doesn't plan to direct. directly governed Venezuela with boots on the ground, but would be influencing Venezuela's policy

through oil sanctions, which the U.S. is already doing. Rubio also said, though, that the president does, quote, retain optionality on anything and on all of these matters, end quote. So perhaps, you know, more happens in the future, but as of right now, according to Rubio, it's just a matter of shaping policy. As of today, Majuro's vice president, Delci Rodriguez, is the acting president of Venezuela. President Trump has acknowledged that, you know, she, she is the acting president, and she herself went on TV to tell the Venezuelan people that she is now running the country. So to answer the question, the United States is not running Venezuela in the sense that we've taken over governance, at least not yet. What the United States is doing is shaping Venezuelan

policy by keeping in place this oil quarantine. And just to be clear there, in Venezuela's case, in oil quarantine refers not only to U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil, but also naval interdictions. And the goal is essentially to maintain the halt on Venezuela's economy until certain conditions are met that serve the best interests of the United States as well as the Venezuelan people. Whether the plan works remains to be seen, whether the president decides to take more military action in Venezuela remains to be seen. But as of today, again, according to Rubio, when the president says running the country, he means, shaping policy. And the final question, what can we expect from here? There are a few things. So number one, Majero and his wife will remain in the United States while they await trial, which could happen later this year. It could also take longer. You never really know. In the meantime,

Delci Rodriguez will serve as the acting president of Venezuela. As of now, there will not be a special election to elect a new president because while Venezuela's constitution requires a special election, if a president becomes permanently unable to serve, that provision does not currently apply to Maduro's situation. And here's why. Because of the nature of Maduro's removal and because it remains to be seen whether he'll eventually return to Venezuela,

the Venezuelan Supreme Court has so far described Maduro's absence as temporary rather than permanent. And a special election is only required when there's a permanent absence. So Rodriguez will continue to serve as acting president for now. and the Venezuelan Supreme Court will be responsible for determining whether Maduro's absence remains temporary or will ultimately be declared permanent and therefore trigger a special election.

As for the future of U.S. Venezuelan relations, that remains to be seen as well. We could eventually see more military action if Venezuela does not do, as the United States says, or in the best case scenario, Venezuela starts turning its economy around, helping its own people, reducing its drug trafficking, potentially becomes more of an ally for the United States, and in that case, no additional military action is taken. But, again, only time will tell. As for U.S. relations with countries like Russia, China, and Iran, you know, all three of these countries have built pretty close ties with Venezuela over the last several years, especially as the United States sanctions pushed the Venezuelan government to look

elsewhere for support. So either the removal of Maduro simply weakens, you know, are adversaries in the sense that it limits their influence in the Western Hemisphere, or it could provoke retaliation or raise tensions even more, especially if Russia, China, or Iran see this as a precedent for U.S. intervention in areas that they consider to be strategically important. In the short term, though, we'll most likely just see these countries publicly condemn what the United States did. In fact, Russia just did that today. They called the attack a fresh momentum for neocolonialism and for imperialism and called for Maduro's release. Longer term, though, it really depends on what kind of government emerges in Venezuela. It depends on how much

influence the United States ends up having there. It depends on whether Venezuela moves away from those partnerships with our adversaries or continues to engage with them in some way. So again, a lot remains to be seen. All right, let's finish this episode with some critical thinking. If you're tuning into the show for the first time, this critical thinking segment is something I include at the end of almost every episode. And it's just a little exercise to get our brains going to remind ourselves that we are fully capable of thinking for ourselves in a world where we are constantly told how and what to think. It's not meant to be too complex. It's not meant to stump you. It's just to challenge you a little bit. So my first question is for those

of you who support the operation. One of the ways that the administration justifies the legality of this operation is by classifying it as law enforcement rather than force against a sovereign state. If you were responsible for drawing the legal distinction between the two, how would you do that? In other words, how would you define law enforcement and how would you define force against a sovereign state? What are their differences? Maybe there are similarities. What are they? Just kind of like analyze both of those definitions that you might come up with. This next question is for those of you who oppose the operation. When people talk about the risks of intervention, How do you balance that against the suffering that is already happening?

Hunger, repression, disease, mass migration, people being forced to leave. Which feels more dangerous to you and why? And here's a challenge for everyone, regardless of where you stand. There's obviously been a lot of debate over whether the president needed congressional approval to carry out this operation. But what I want you to do is I want you to come up with two pros of not. not requiring the president to seek congressional approval and two pros for requiring the president to seek congressional approval. That's what I have for you today. It is so nice to be back with you. I'm so sorry about my voice. If you made it all the way to the end, thank you so much for bearing with me.

I understand that this is not ideal and it probably does sound a little bit annoying. So thank you, thank you, thank you. And I will talk to you again on Thursday for just a regular news episode. It be a special report, we'll just kind of get caught up on everything else that is going on.