Unchained - Bitcoin Has Been Oversold for Months. Is a Buy Signal Next?

Episode Date: August 14, 2026

📢 Bits + Bips has its own channel now — full episodes here: https://www.youtube.com/@Bitsandbips  Bitcoin has done almost nothing for weeks, and Katie Stockton says that stillness is exactly what a long-term bottom looks like on the charts.  She walks Steven Ehrlich through the monthly stochastic oscillator that has stayed oversold for months, the DeMark indicators showing downside exhaustion, and what history says has to happen for that setup to become an actual buy signal. Host: Steven Ehrlich - Host of Bits + Bips: The Interview and Head of Research at Sharplink Guest: Katie Stockton - CMT, Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies This clip is from a longer conversation on Bitcoin's technical setup and Katie Stockton's read on crypto markets. Full episode here: https://youtu.be/35ZHRajBJ5E?si=d6ycx66p2Tz1fSma  We go live every week - subscribe to catch it live. Sponsor: 👉 Cape: Your biggest crypto vulnerability isn't your wallet, it's your phone number. Cape is America's privacy-first mobile carrier that rotates your SIM identity daily and blocks SIM swaps before they happen. Get 33% off your first six months at https://cape.co/unchained  (use code: UNCHAINED)  Chapters: 🕐 00:21 Why Bitcoin's usual volatility has gone quiet even as AI stocks rip 📉 01:27 Bitcoin's monthly stochastic oscillator: the long-term oversold read 🔍 03:16 Fibonacci levels, the cloud model, and the case for a major low 🔁 04:45 What history says about oversold setups turning into real bottoms 🎯 05:34 The exact signal Katie needs to call an 'oversold buy signal' Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You're listening to a brief segment from one of the Bits and Bips episodes this week. The full show is now only available on its own dedicated Bits and Bips channels. So be sure to go to X, YouTube, and your favorite podcast platform and search for Bits plus sign Bips, spelled BIPS, and subscribe. Really excited to have you on this week in particular because, as I know you've been watching and plenty of us in the industry have been. crypto's going along slowly, calmly. And that's not typically, it's MO, especially in a world where yields arising, AI stocks are continuing to go through the roof. Major indices keep setting record highs. At the same point, we get worrying inflation prints and a lot of different things going on.

Crypto is supposed to move one way or another, but hopefully up, but for the most part, it's staying still. And I think you're the perfect person here because of the way you look at the market to sort of explain what you're seeing why. And I guess most importantly, when it might end. So let's get right into it. Let's talk about Bitcoin. I know that you've given some comments recently that you think the bottom is in and we are going to look for, we are going to see a bit of an upswing. Perhaps you could walk us through what you're saying. Of course, so obviously the crypto winter has been ongoing. And with the downtrend, we now have a long-term

oversold indication. And that's based on, it's measurable. It's based on the monthly stochastic oscillator that we use. So it's a technical indicator, pretty popular, in fact. And it's been oversold now for a few months. And that's something that has us sort of perk up, right? We pay attention when oversold conditions return. but they themselves are not enough of an indication of a turnaround. What we like to also see is mostly twofold, I would say, which would be improved momentum. And when I say that, I mean more than just short term. And then also we have another indicator, a suite of indicators, in fact, from Tom DeMarc. The DeMarc indicators are helpful in order to enhance those oversawg conditions and vice versa. and they do have some signs of downside exhaustion presently for the monthly Bitcoin chart. And they would suggest that at least for another three or four months, we could see some

stabilization, if not a longer term turnaround. So let's break this down a little bit more using the chart that we just had up if we can get it again because there's a lot of information here, a lot of different charts. And I know when you and I have spoken in the past, It's never just one reading. It's never one indication. It's never one particular time horizon or timescale. So could you just maybe walk us through a little more like precisely like what you're seeing?

And I guess like what you would need to continue seeing for your conviction to persist or get stronger. Of course. So you can see this is a weekly bar chart of Bitcoin. And you can see the downtrend, of course, series of lower highs, lower lows. But what you'll also notice is that there is a long-term support zone nearby. And support can be measured many different ways. We look at previous peaks and troughs on the charts. So you can see if previous troughs or lows have been captured by this zone.

We also like to use Fibonacci retracement levels. It's something that's fairly common in technical analysis as a discipline. And it's a way to understand where buyers may step in based on the Fibonacci sequence. which is maybe a topic for another webinar, but quite helpful we have found. And then also just things like the cloud model, the shaded area that you see can also be a support gauge. But of course, right now it's resistance,

longer term resistance and overhang. And it also reflects the downtrend that has affected Bitcoin for some time now. But with all of this, we have the long term oversold indication. So that's more visible on the monthly chart. So we use Stochastic. on the monthly, on the weekly, on the daily across timeframes to help us understand what's

going on here. And because we had not only the weekly oversold, which would be more intermediate terminate, terminate, take away, but then also the longer term oversold on the monthly, taken together, those would suggest that we have a potential major low in place. Yeah. I'm curious, I know in some of our previous conversations, we've gone back and talked about historical precedents. And although crypto is not very old, especially in terms of the world of the financial system, it's gone through many cycles in its brief history. Are there one or two times where you've seen a similar type of over-souled situation? And are there any similarities? Typically, like, what is the catalyst that helps it

break out? Is it something exogenous that happen outward stimuli? Or are there signals in terms of momentum indicators or volume, something like that that gives you a sense that even if perhaps a match gets lit, that there's enough Tinder there to really keep it going. Yeah. So what we like to see is pretty specific, in fact, in terms of an oversold condition giving way to then what we call an oversold buy signal. And in our work, that occurs in part when the stochastics, in this case, in the monthly, would turn back above 20% decisively. We feel that that shows enough of a momentum and sentiment shift to then suggest that it was a major low already that's in place. These indicators all have a built-in lag to them, but that's okay because we're trying not to get caught up in the noise,

but rather identify bigger, more important inflection points. And with that, we feel that the indicators generally keep us on the right side of the trend and also help us to know, when the probabilities are in our favor, right? So if we're thinking about, you know, being long Bitcoin right now, we know that we're fighting against a downtrend, right? That downtrend is still visible, is still evident in the monthly indicators, certainly, and you can just see it in the slope of the 40-week moving average on the chart. And that is our context, right? So we know we need to have stricter attention to risk management. So all of these things are just designed to give you more success in your investment decisions. There is not any way to predict what's going to

happen tomorrow, what's going to happen a week, a month, a year from now. But we can put those probabilities in our favor and therein manage risk and also succeed in terms of riding those trends. If you hold crypto on your phone, your biggest vulnerability isn't your wallet. It's your carrier. AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile have been breached again and again, and SIM swaps are still one of the easiest ways for attackers to drain accounts. That's where CAPE comes in, America's Privacy First Mobile Carrier. Same premium service, but CAPE rotates the identifier on your SIM every 24 hours, deletes your call-and-text metadata after a day, and protects against SIM swaps with a 24-word recovery phrase that only

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