Unchained - Jeff Park on Why Owning 1 Bitcoin Is Young People's American Dream - Ep. 848

Episode Date: June 10, 2025

In part 2 of Jeff Park’s interview with Unchained, he describes ways that both everyday investors and the U.S. government can use various crypto assets to come out on top as old models and strategie...s become outdated.  He reveals the three personal stories that led him to develop his radical portfolio theory, puts himself in the shoes of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and explains why Japan is the linchpin in the transition to this new world order. In this episode, we explore: Why Jeff believes the future belongs to wholecoiners The social mission behind owning bitcoin How the U.S. could leverage stablecoins to maintain global dominance Why the new American dream might not involve a house at all And why, in Jeff’s words, we may already be “living in a Bitcoin-only world.” Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com Thank you to our sponsors! Xapo Bank Bitwise Guest: Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Part 1 of Jeff on Unchained: Jeff Park Says the 60/40 Portfolio May Be Dead. Here’s His Radical Fix  Timestamps: 👋 0:00 Intro 📌 3:14 The 3 life events that shaped Jeff’s radical portfolio vision 🌍 7:58 Why crypto’s value is clearer outside privileged financial systems 🚀 15:18 Why Jeff is so bullish on STRK and what it represents 🌐 20:56 What it means to be “living in a Bitcoin-only world” 💥 27:42 Why the U.S. is vulnerable and what’s the new American Dream 🤝 32:36 What Jeff would do if he were in Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s position  🇯🇵 39:16 Why Jeff sees Japan as a critical piece of the global financial order 💵 48:36 Why stablecoins could be the U.S.’s most powerful financial weapon 🤔 54:50 Why Jeff is skeptical about a U.S. bitcoin reserve 🏛️ 59:14 Whether Bitcoin treasury companies are here to stay Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Bitcoin is the thing that I think most young people have understood to be more worthwhile as a way to store value than how little they can control interest rates. So if you have to buy home today and your 30-year mortgage is 6, 7% plus, I mean, you're priced out of the market. But you know what? You can buy Bitcoin today. And Bitcoin is likely going to appreciate in value against the exact 6 to 7% that the fiatta basement is trying to charge to you. to increase the present value of their asset, that Bitcoin is not only like a hedge, it's actually directionally the right thing to own as a way to grow wealth. So it's actually very acutely obvious to young people, the rule that Bitcoin can serve. Hi, everyone. Welcome to Unchained. You're no-hype resource for all things crypto.
Starting point is 00:00:51 I'm your host, Laura Shin. Every episode, we feature our guests and you. We read comments and reviews from listeners. Today we have some responses to my recent interview with Ryan Watkins on Pump Fund's $1 billion fundraise. On X, Yusuf Jems wrote, I think the race is really good for the sustained growth of Solana, excited to see how it plays out. Also on X, Jasmine Defy Dev said, $1 billion spent on user experience infrastructure beats marketing spend every time.
Starting point is 00:01:22 Seameless onboarding and reliable execution create lasting adoption rather than temporary user spikes. If you want to hear your comment on a show, write a review of the podcast overall, or leave a comment on our video on YouTube, Farcaster, or X. This is June 10th, 2025 episode of Unchained. One early Bitcoiner sold 30,000 BTC too soon, missing out on over a billion dollars. Don't want to make the same mistake. With Zopo Bank, eligible members can get instant cash without selling their Bitcoin. Check out Zappobank.com slash Unchained for more. Crypto moves fast. It's why Bitwise launched the weekly CIO memo, a jargon-free summary of what's moving
Starting point is 00:02:03 crypto markets written by one of the best in the business, CIO Matt Hogan. Get up to speed in five minutes or less. Check it out at bitwiseinvestments.com slash CIO memo. Carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing. Today's guest is Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise. Welcome, Jeff. Hello, Laura, happy to be back. Happy Monday. Yeah, so listeners who missed last week's show, welcome to part two of the Jeff Park interview. And if you did miss part one, I suggest you go back and listen to it now. We cover Jeff's background, why he believes the traditional 6040 portfolio is breaking down,
Starting point is 00:02:44 the main elements of his radical portfolio theory, which was like the bulk of the episode. And Jeff, we kind of need to like, you know, close the loop on some of those. So at the end of your posts about the radical portfolio theory, like back when you initially published it, you wrote, on the personal side, three pivotal life events have solidified my conviction that's in the need for pathways that build a resilient alternative system. I would love to hear about those three life events. Oh, man, we're getting personal now. I love it.
Starting point is 00:03:16 Well, I think I can share my journey has been across multiple decades, and there were three life events that solidified this for me. The first that most people know is the global financial crisis. I think having lived through it as your first job out of school, it is jarring, and it is incredibly nerve-wracking to imagine everything you ever thought you knew is actually totally thrown out the window. And there's actually nothing stable underneath the foundation. of what the modern economic miracle is.
Starting point is 00:03:49 And so that to me was like a pivotal moment of realization that I have to be more thoughtful, more kind of focused on my own ability to question things and challenge assumptions, institutional behavior, and understand generally where like the flow of the direction of the world is going. The second life event, some folks may also be familiar with this. I've spoken to about it in the past and rare circumstances is I actually spent my time growing up in Korea and the United States. And I did live in Korea during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. And so now we're kind of going back in time when I was a young in.
Starting point is 00:04:34 And you have no idea, of course, what anything is. You're just living your best lack. You're in second grade. And, you know, one day, the country just falls apart. And, you know, anyone who's lived in emerging markets will know what I'm talking about. But it's like, it's kind of like the world just comes to a sudden halt. And it's not unlike maybe how Americans might have experienced 9-11, but it is like this thing that you'll never forget. And when the IMF bailout was essentially being permissioned for Korea, there was a lot of
Starting point is 00:05:09 noisy conversations. There were those who believed the United States was being an ally, and then there were those who believed the United States was being extremely predatory about the terms in which they're setting for those loans in which this is a kind of colonialism. And when you're a young person, you're absolutely no idea what any of these things mean. But what you do remember is you were not in control of your own destiny. Once more, you as a sovereign, was reliant upon somebody else to navigate the next many years without this bailout. And that shows you the current state of how weaponized global financial systems can be. And in some ways, having lived it in my formative childhood years, I think there was a part of my brain that always knew that like the social
Starting point is 00:05:56 contract of how money works is not as as benign and compassionate as people might explain it to be. And now you see the IMF also actually caught on both sides of different things. whereas, you know, there'll be poo-poo on Bitcoin and El Salvador adopting it. And then, you know, you wonder who's actually running the IMF for what purposes and whose gains. And those things start to come to light. I think more Americans are paying attention to it. But if you're an emerging market citizens, this is very native to you. So to me, that also helped me question the role of the dollar,
Starting point is 00:06:29 which is equally important to embrace Bitcoin pretty early on. And then the third thing is a little bit more personal to me. And it's one that I haven't really shared with anybody. It's a deeply private experience. But it's one in which I would say my own family experienced a kind of hyper politicization that showed you that institutions can sometimes be not neutral. And they are in fact very politically driven. And it's not really always going to be about.
Starting point is 00:07:02 what is morally right or wrong, but what is at different points in times the things that are driving execution for judgment that you also can't control for. And this was like a more deeply private experience for me. And without going to specific details, it made me very seriously consider the credible neutrality of some of the institutions that we have in our world, including the courts. And I think you get to see some of this now. as judicial warfare has becoming more amplified and heightened here, even in the United States. But I will share with you in Korea that the court being weaponized to fight political battles is nothing new. And once you get to see some of this at a very personal level, then you can also imagine why opting out of that in a way that Bitcoin represents can be an extremely powerful social movement outside of the financial movement.
Starting point is 00:07:58 Yeah, a lot of what you're saying there resonates with me in so many ways. First of all, I actually lived in Indonesia during the time of the financial crisis, or the Asian economic flu, it's called. I went in. So I was a recent grad, and my first drop out of college was teaching ESL at an international school in Indonesia. And I remember that when I arrived in August, the exchange rate It was $2,500 to $1. And on the worst day, five months later, it was $17,000 to $1. So, you know, it collapsed by, what is that? Like it to one seventh of the value it had been.
Starting point is 00:08:39 It eventually stabilized it about $11,000. So like, what is that? Like one fifth of what it had been. But, you know, this is something that I like understood immediately. I mean, it benefited me because I was actually being paid in U.S. dollars. But, you know, obviously there was all kinds of crazy political unrest happening going on. And it affected people that I worked with and, you know, even like, like, yeah, people that I just interacted with on a daily basis. So, so I totally understand that. And, you know, some of the other things that you said about, like, the politicization of kind of, like, different governmental, you know, processes that are supposed to be democratic or, like, equally applied or neutral or whatever.
Starting point is 00:09:24 Yeah, this is something you have to go back further in my family history to uncover. But yeah, it's something that is part of sort of my family history as well. So these are all themes that I resonate with. And so it makes sense that, you know, you have a perspective that is sort of primed to think about these moments, you know, that we discussed in the first interview about like, you know, like what is, what is something like resistance? What is something like compliance? What is the need even to have this resistance component of your portfolio. It's like there was this kind of viral series of exchanges with some fintech founder who was doing things about how like he doesn't see any use case for stables and how crypto has been around and it doesn't solve anything and all this stuff.
Starting point is 00:10:12 And like, you know, I saw, so I don't know anything about him. I just saw on his Twitter violence as he's based in London. And, you know, somebody finally put him in his place and kind of showed like, oh, So yeah, but if you're in Afghanistan, then like, this is your reality and this is how stable coin, because he was shitting on stable coins in particular. And he, and this person said, like, these are how stable coins help you. And he said, oh, yeah, I guess I hadn't thought about how it works for exotic locations. And I just tweeted back at him like, yeah. And also, you know, like exotic, like in Argentina or Turkey, like these are places where, you know, they don't trust their money. and they've seen their life savings decimated by holding in their local currency.
Starting point is 00:10:57 And so all I'm trying to say is just like your experience there, like it could truly happen to anyone. And I've experienced it in my family. You experienced it in yours. There's so many people around the globe that have had this experience. You know, a lot of Americans, a lot of people from developing countries, they have not had this experience. That is why I feel like I see this hubris so frequently from people like who are Americans or
Starting point is 00:11:21 Canadians or you know whatever. And they just like look down their noses of Bitcoin and crypto and they just are like, you know, oh, but you know, I trusted my money. We have like, what is the need for this? And it's like, yeah, you know, you're so privileged and you can't even see it. Yes, I think you're absolutely right. And I feel very lucky that I get to experience both an American life and her Korean life to understand the duality of how these worlds can exist. And it's a unique privilege. But the reality is, the United States for a long time had a very incredibly, almost like a naive prosperity where people, I don't think were aware of where these things were even coming from. And it's only very recently that this Rubicon has been crossed because I will
Starting point is 00:12:07 say now this idea of political persecution has become more mainstream. And you've seen it on both sides. You've seen it unfairly to Biden and you've seen it unfairly on Trump. And it's entered regular discourse. But the truth is, if you lived in emerging markets, you understand how fragile these systems of governance can be. And the one thing that I do think is really kind of a watershed moment is the U.S., for the first time in my opinion, has truly kind of opened their eyes away from this naive prosperity that I think all of us got to enjoy for a long period of time. And it's a movement. It's also why I said, even though the radical portfolio theory is all about you know, maximizing your portfolio construction for a better financial outcome to future proof.
Starting point is 00:12:50 It's at the core, a social mission. It's why rooting behind the theory is what I wrote up as a manifesto with five bullets. And the first bullet of that manifesto is the idea that the opposite of misinformation is actually not truth. It's state-controlled information because truth in itself is a totally probabilistic exercise. No one has the keys to exert truth in ways that are especially related to like social sciences, where you might say there's truth in physical sciences or the ways of the natural world. But once you move beyond that to where the system, the complex system is human made,
Starting point is 00:13:29 there's no truth. And that's when you have to open your eyes and realize the combating of misinformation in itself is combating centralized authoritarian state-controlled information. And all of this social energy has to underpin. why we need to explore the radical portfolio and drive the mission. Yeah, Jeff. So this is not something that I talk about too much on the show, but let's just say people will know that I've been dealing with health issues for a very long time.
Starting point is 00:13:56 And like what you said there resonates with me so much in ways that I will reveal someday, but I can't quite go into right now. So yeah, I just would say like, you know, in journalism, we have a saying like sunlight is the best disinfectant. And that's why I love this profession that I'm in, and I think it's so important. But, you know, I think for me, I had to learn in the hardest way that, like,
Starting point is 00:14:26 I had trust in certain things that I didn't necessarily, that it didn't behoove me to have trust in. And I had to find that out in the hardest way is possible. And so, yes, what you're saying there is very, is something that I at least really resonate with. Jeff, actually. Oh, go ahead. I appreciate kind of the courage you're putting out there to share those experiences. And I think the reality, as many of us have those experiences.
Starting point is 00:14:53 And we're not alone. And this is part of the rising movement of Bitcoin as a philosophy, too, that is driving so much political interest. You know, Bitcoin's not left or right. It's actually kind of more, I would say, colloquially, inside or outside. And it's an outside movement coming in. And that's the thing that you're witnessing, I'm witnessing. We all have our human experiences that have built up to this exact moment to be where we are.
Starting point is 00:15:17 Yes. In our last interview, we left off in our discussion with this theory that you had put forth that if you were to distill the two components of the radical portfolio theory, resistance and compliance, into two assets, they would be micro-strategy prefers shares, SDRK and Bitcoin. And then you actually even tweeted that from the date of SDR case launch at the end of January, this portfolio, this radical portfolio of these two assets would have been up by 8.8%. And during the same time, the S&P 500 index and the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Total Return, which would be stand-ins for the traditional 6040 portfolio, declined by 0.7%. So I just wondered, this is like a small sample size. And yeah, it looks like similar. early vindication for your theory. But I'm sure you know, there's probably, at least this is my opinion, there's somewhat of a bubble in sort of the Bitcoin Treasury Company's world.
Starting point is 00:16:16 You know, maybe SCRK, you're saying is immune to that. I don't know. But I would just would be curious to hear like, you know, why you think you had the performance that you did and like any caveats you would want to make about that performance. Yeah, absolutely. You're absolutely right. In a short window, anything could happen. And we have to keep an eye on it. And by the way, most people should hopefully diversify more than two assets. So I would highly encourage that people seek diversification outside of the two-pronged approach. And of course, none of this is financial advice. But the core ethos I'm trying to hit upon here is there's a world of compliance and a world of resistance. And to me, Bitcoin is resistance. You must own it in its native form
Starting point is 00:16:56 factor, hopefully in court custody. And that serves your allocation to the 40% radical portfolio theory. But the compliance world, you have a lot of options. You have a lot of options. You have a lot of options in that because there's a lot of Bitcoin adjacent securities that have come to market. And people are dabbling across all of these Bitcoin treasury companies to seek exposure to Bitcoin, which I predominantly would still call it is the compliance factor because they're in the system of the way we understand the global carry trades, which is essentially driven by liquidity and cross-border flows and all of the institutional capital for which it paints a different story than the resistance assets.
Starting point is 00:17:36 So the reason I picked STRK was because it represents at the highest form, all the virtues, and the best things about why you want some compliance exposure, which is that the financialization of Bitcoin is actually a pretty accretive thing if you know where you're looking. And STRK technically is senior to MSTR the stock. and the intimation that I'm making here when I say you should allocate to 60 in STRK and 40 in Bitcoin, but implied they're saying none in MSTR, is trying to explain what is the best part of the securitization model that Wall Street has embraced to create financial products that give you the best risk adjusted return for allocating money into compliance.
Starting point is 00:18:24 and STRK is in many ways a buffer to the Bitcoin experience being long only because at the core, it's a fixed income like asset. And so it distributes real cash flow because it has a coupon. And that coupon is useful when Bitcoin itself is not very productive in generating a yield, whereas STRK is the hyper financialization of Bitcoin to promote the idea that you can achieve yield. And so that's an important thing. that brings you back to the bond versus equity kind of framework where you value some present cash flow today as well as some term or value of growth in the future. But make no mistake,
Starting point is 00:19:03 this is a Bitcoin long portfolio because at the core of what you're still betting on and where you're 100% united is that the debasement of Fiat is going to accelerate both categories regardless. But STRK just gives you one more degrees of freedom because when rates go down, which I think many of us imagine eventually rates will have to come down. The fixed income instruments will benefit greatly. And it could likely be that Bitcoin benefits as well, but fixed income has a very direct correlation to rate reduction in which the NPV increases fairly dramatically. And STRK is the senior part of that structure that's able to capitalize upon this. Now, I wrote this up when STRK was the only preferred instrument, but as you know now,
Starting point is 00:19:52 there's actually an additional slew of other preferred equity instruments that sailor has come to market with, including strife and most recently including stride. And I might even argue strife is even more pure of a form of the thesis that I'm exuding, which is that strife is a perpetual cash bond. There has never been a perpetual cash bond like that in the U.S., in a preferred structure where if you believe in Bitcoin, this thing. thing is going to be a rates instrument that pays you a yield forever. Forever. This preferred equity cannot be retired.
Starting point is 00:20:31 It is not within the possibilities of the docs where a sailor can actually retire it against your will. It is a forever instrument. And it's a forever instrument that's going to pay you 10 plus percent as long as you believe in Bitcoin today. And that's very complementary to being long Bitcoin as part of the global carry trade that I think they're just very, very much perfectly made for each other in a 6040 construct.
Starting point is 00:20:56 Something else that you tweeted, which was super interesting, because as you probably know, the typical cycle in crypto is that as things get frothy, there's like this altcoin season. And you recently tweeted scalable institutional crypto alpha won't come from trading altcoins based on liquid venture narratives. It'll come from monetizing the mispriced financialization of Bitcoin. and other volatile assets, liabilities, through equity, credit, and options markets across the globe that can be in return hedged via coin arbitrage by crypto natives, in other words,
Starting point is 00:21:33 relative value macro. Can you expand on these thoughts? Sure. So, you know, a long time ago, the crypto universe was very diverse. There was a periodic table of elements of all tokens you could trade and, you know, everyone brought different functions. And over time, I think, what has consolidated pretty cleanly is that we live in a world where it's Bitcoin or very much nothing else of interest, at least on the institutional front. And when I say this, I don't mean that this is the world that the world in this direction is permanent nor supported. But at this particular moment, a lot of people are interested in Bitcoin because Bitcoin has emerged as the idea of a pristine collateral that can be a way to fight fiat debasement. And no other token has really
Starting point is 00:22:19 captured that narrative yet. And the technology story hasn't really been fully fleshed out for the benefits of decentralization the way crypto enthusiasts had hoped to see. So right now, it's very much a Bitcoin world. And because the tam of sovereign asset is so big, there's a lot of financialization that is happening here across the board. Bitcoin Treasury companies is one version of it. But you're now seeing companies that are offering life insurance products that are backed off of Bitcoin-based payments. You're seeing mortgage products that are coming online that is being assisted by Bitcoin. Actually, Coinbase also over the weekend released a beautiful ad about homeownership cost denominated in Bitcoin. I think that will open people's eyes to imagine what a Bitcoin
Starting point is 00:23:03 back mortgage could look like. And so Bitcoin is the thing that is being financialized today. And Wall Street has opened its checkbook for it. And I think because of the unique opportunity that a crypto-native trader and investor can bridge the world of defy and C-Fi, they're in a very unique position to be both capital providers, but also takers of different arbitrage opportunities. Because here's the thing, Bitcoin is a commodity, which means anybody can trade it. It's actually not a U.S. asset. It's not a Chinese asset. It is actually just a jurisdictionless asset that trades everywhere without permission, whoever wants to do it. And so it becomes a very clear game of capital efficiency at some level where the risk models are not going to be
Starting point is 00:23:51 determined by just the U.S. alone. Basel 3 and the U.S. can do whatever they want to put capital charges on Bitcoin, but if another jurisdiction does not do that, then they're at an edge where they can trade it differently and they can't control it. So the thing that is unique about a commodity is that it can't really be controlled by one government in creating the market structure. So those who can live in DFI and CFI and be a liquidity provisioner, I think there's tons of opportunities where people are imagining outsized gains for those that can access those conduits. So for example, Bitcoin Treasury companies coming online is a very big Wall Street play. But there's probably a lot of folks who want to imagine hedging some of that exposure.
Starting point is 00:24:38 So if you have to take the other side of, let's say, hedging Bitcoin Treasury company exposure year before it comes to market later this year, you probably will need to find a way to access the short book. And if you can do it in a crypto-native way, you will have a lens to do it that's different than what, you know, the goldman's of the world can permit in a regulated construct. So it pays to be living in both worlds with both feet kind of IndyFi and C-Fi to maximally canvass the most capital-efficient ways to put on different trades. And that's what I'm seeing from my purview that because this is jurisdictionless asset, the winners are going to look like the ones that are jurisdictionless. And I think people are waking up to this reality by the rise
Starting point is 00:25:20 of a lot of these other offshore kind of companies, trading operations, and, et cetera. And here's the other thing I will add. Offshore tends to get like a dirty word as if it's like a criminal thing to do things offshore. At least that's the impression I get when I tell people about like offshore financial services. But guess what? Most of, of the greatest financial innovations that happen in the United States happen offshore. Most insurance companies operate offshore. Most reinsurance companies operate out of Bermuda. All of these kind of channels of capital flows that are really innovating on the edge of bringing utility tends to happen offshore.
Starting point is 00:26:01 And I think it's time that the U.S. needs to embrace this idea that actually there's a reason why offshore jurisdictions exist. there's a reason why Eurodollar futures trade outside of U.S. markets. And the quicker we are able to neutralize offshore being like a negative thing, the faster the U.S. can actually then embrace its capabilities offshore to then bring additional capabilities in-house and cement a long-dated partnership that is net beneficial for the United States as a superpower. Yeah. Two things I want to pick up on there are just there's like a famous Scott Adam saying, which is like if you,
Starting point is 00:26:38 you know, want to become good at something in life or want to become known or I forget how he frames it. But like basically if you become it, if you become good at two different things that are not normally found in one person and that like can make for a successful career. And what you just described just described about like defy and CFI and like kind of knowing both worlds and then kind of being able to like apply the knowledge across both like like that I feel like is a very similar concept. And then the other thing here, you know, is just about the the offshore and things happening from the fringe. I mean, this is just like a thing that we see even happen generationally.
Starting point is 00:27:14 You know, it's like younger people are the ones who are kind of tend to be more revolutionary or even just like in a household. You might see like teenagers come along and then they have ideas and they want to do things differently. And so point is that like all this stuff that you're saying, like it points to the fact that, yeah, the U.S. is like the adult in the room. They're the boomers. They're the ones who've always done things a certain way.
Starting point is 00:27:38 And frankly, the U.S. is probably right for disruption. And so this kind of is a good segue to a next series of questions. One is, you know, I saw you tweeted, quote, the fact is I worry less about Bitcoin price than I do about U.S. mortgage rates, which is how I know with absolute certainty that the national myth known as the American dream is rapidly changing. So curious to hear you talk more about that. Oh, yeah, for sure. By the way, I would say, say not only is the U.S. ripe for a moment. The entire U.S. history is based on these moments of insurrection of opportunities that come in this regulatory and culturally gray areas. The founding history of the United States alone is a rebellion against the institution that we now
Starting point is 00:28:30 know as Great Britain. And everything in this journey from the Louisiana Purchase to the Trails of Tears to the Homestead Act, all of these things, like, look a little bit strange at the time. And what I think I'm trying to intuit here is, like, great opportunities are never that boxed nicely in a present that's compliance-led. Because if it was, then everyone would be doing it. And so actually, to go to the West and the frontier and establish the Homestead Act's rules to get land would have been just as weird then as it is weird now, people thinking about going on chain to buy Bitcoin as a way to store value. And it's so hard to imagine it because we didn't live in that generation 100 of years ago. But I guarantee you the cultural moment was the same.
Starting point is 00:29:17 Who are these people going out west and trying to get land in a place that doesn't matter? Like, why are they going to the metaverse? That metaverse is not valuable. And so I 100% agree with you. Like these things, they come at you in a way that that's not obvious at first. and only by living it, it becomes more obvious. And to me, home price is one of those very obvious things where everyone is priced out globally. Everyone here in the United States or in Europe or in Asia, the common story you hear is young people cannot afford homes.
Starting point is 00:29:47 They cannot afford homes because, again, the global carry system that promotes inflation as a way to build continued growth as a story automatically orphans this constituent out. So this story, to me is not just like, it's not just class warfare. It's actually more of like a generational wealth transfer related issue. And Bitcoin is the thing that I think most young people have understood to be more worthwhile as a way to store value than how little they can control interest
Starting point is 00:30:21 rates. So if you have to buy home today and your 30 year mortgage is 6, 7% plus, I mean, you're priced out of the market. But you know what? You can buy Bitcoin today. And Bitcoin is likely going to appreciate in value against the exact 6 to 7% that the Fiatta basement is trying to charge to you to increase the present value of their asset, that Bitcoin is not only like a hedge, it's actually directionally the right thing to own as a way to grow wealth. So it's actually very acutely obvious to young people, the rule that Bitcoin can serve. So I don't worry about Bitcoin's price. I actually think I go to sleep perfectly fine knowing that Bitcoin is generally in a good trajectory, even if it's volatile, I know the story
Starting point is 00:31:05 of Fiatta basement being unstoppable at this point. And that means you can own Bitcoin and go to sleep and you don't have to control anything because the government will do what it does. Whereas mortgage rates, it's really hard to know. And I think even now, as I would have imagined, the Trump administration would have tried to kind of lower rates here in the U.S. to promote kind of the American dream of homeownership. The frank reality is it hasn't happened. And we're seeing the challenges when the buyers of our debt who promote the American dream through homeownership is now adversarial to those interests like China and potentially
Starting point is 00:31:44 even Japan. So, you know, the beautiful thing about Bitcoin is like it has no politics. It just is what it is in its representation across the globe of the people who believe in the same value system. And you can opt out. And that's why I think for me, it's very obvious that young people now think of the American dream very differently. They're not worried about homeworship. They want to become whole coiner.
Starting point is 00:32:07 Everyone wants to want one Bitcoin as like the American dream. If you're a very young person. And many actually more than that as ways they think about, you know, the popular meme of retiring their bloodline. But they want more Bitcoin that they can share with them, their nuclear family, their children. And that is more powerful, I think, social signal than, hey, I have this white picketed. home in the suburban neighborhood. It doesn't carry the same prestige anymore with young people the way that a whole coin or would, I think, in the future. Yeah, so everything that we've been talking about is kind of like an individual's positioning in this sort of uncertain world of
Starting point is 00:32:43 change that we're facing. But, you know, we're both Americans. And I did want to ask you because, you know, here you are kind of talking about what you think are the prospects on various different metrics for the U.S. And, you know, I recently saw it. So, that like, I guess there was a video clip of Treasury Secretary Scott Besson saying that the debt to GDP ratio is 6.7%. And you tweeted, unless we change the actual definition of GDP, the only path to growing the economy faster than the debt will remain inflation. This is why U.S. debt was downgraded. This is why 6040 is breaking. So I was so curious to know, if you were in Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's position, what would you do?
Starting point is 00:33:28 Yeah, that's a fascinating question. And if I were to have the privilege to be in that room, which of course have no context for what Secretary Besson is, I'm sure, expertly navigating, is the need for more long-term commitment to some global coordination based on selective alliances. I think the reality is the U.S. has been generous in the ways that they've struck alliance agreements without necessarily being very specific about the trade-off that they're making. And this is the naive prosperity that I'm alluding to post-19s, where now I think it's clear the
Starting point is 00:34:09 U.S. has a lot of different adversarial enemies where it's not actually like a bipolar setup. It's a multilateral setup. And so the idea of demanding true partnerships amongst certain allies where we can actually start rank ordering the importance of those allies more explicitly by asking for a financial commitment is, I think, where the world is probably going to have to go. And I wouldn't be surprised, by the way, if this is actually happening already behind the scenes and we just don't know it. But the idea of having like a plaza up court's style get together where we re-underwrite the new rules of alliances and find those who depend on the U.S. for their security status
Starting point is 00:34:51 and the security guarantee would then have to commit more towards funding the long-term obligations of the United States be made a little bit more explicit. I think the overall tone is that there are some things that were taboo to talk about in the past where it was ungentlemanly to ask for things in this kind of tip-for-tat way. And so the culture of the world kind of hid all this behind a curtain. And there wasn't this obvious sense of deal-making. But, you know, ebbs and flows as time goes, there are moments when it arises that you actually do need to make deals. And you do actually have to confront this in like a very explicit and transparent way.
Starting point is 00:35:32 So I think if I were Treasury Secretary Bessett, I would have those conversations more in a public forum where, you know, there's some things to lose if you do that as kind of the dominant superpower. but it allows the possibility to actually have it more out in the open and find, you know, the alliances that really matter that's going to be able to back you up financially for the long haul. So I think, you know, having Japan and the U.S. being known as closer allies, and I think that the world understands today is an important one. I think the U.S. really does not understand the role of Japan. Even today, if you ask a general American person, is Japan like an ally to all the things you're living today in your consumer-centric world, most Americans, I think, don't have a clue.
Starting point is 00:36:19 They might even think Japan is the enemy from like World War II. But like having this clarity, like Japan is hinged to the butt of the American experience. And, and, and, and US must succeed together as like, as like an alliance leaning into that energy a little bit more where they're not kind of playing each sides carefully, I think is one way that I might imagine if there's something to be unlocked there. But, you know, I'm not a diplomat. I have no public policy experience. I'm sure there's a thousand things that go underneath it that makes it challenging. These are all multilateral trade agreements at some level. But I think educating the citizens from the grounds up, nonetheless, about how important these alliances are from a financial perspective is one that is worth
Starting point is 00:37:06 taking upon. All right. So in a moment, we're going to talk a little bit more about the role that Japan plays in the global financial order, but first a quick word from the sponsors to make this show possible. Hi, I'm Matt Hogan, CIO of Crypto Asset Manager Bitwise. Look, crypto can be confusing. There's so much noise and the space changes so quickly. That's why, every week, I write a five-minute memo on the biggest stories impacting crypto. In plain English.
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Starting point is 00:39:13 Back to my conversation with Jeff. So I always hear you talking about Japan. Like, I feel like every, not every, but so frequently you are kind of pointing out that they play this like super important role in the global financial order. You see them as this sort of lynchpin. So what role do you think they will end up playing in the change? global world order and, you know, how could the U.S. like, just elaborate on kind of where you were going with the previous answer? Yeah, I mean, so the reality is Japan is at the center of the entire financial system today with their global carry trades that have been in place for a long period of time.
Starting point is 00:39:59 What I mean by the global carry trade is ultimately the reality that Japan has the lowest cost of debt. And so it is the cheapest source of funding that the U.S. can also still access to be able to promote growth, where Japan has been basically in a deflationary environment for a very long time until most very recently. And so this relationship is actually pretty, pretty incestuous at some level, because Japan then, in looking for growth by not being able to achieve it with their low cost of capital, invests in U.S. stocks directly too. So it's almost like this flywheel where like the cost of debt ultimately funnels back into real assets, including U.S. equity as one of the more liquid implementations. And so it's a whole circular kind of leverage system that is built.
Starting point is 00:40:48 And it all depends on whether Japan's interest rate differential versus the U.S. can support that margin of safety. So anytime there's like an issue with Japan's rates going up, you see a violent unwind of. of the carry trade that directly impacts U.S. rates. And if U.S. rates therefore goes higher, then that automatically has a trickle down effect, of course, which is very bad for the rest of the world. And so Japan sits at the middle of like in many ways controlling that global cost of capital, if you will. That's why I think everyone that's in global macro, both economists and traders are focused on the long term rates for Japan as well, which is now like reaching pretty historic levels that we haven't seen in a long time and genuinely worried, how is this going to
Starting point is 00:41:36 work with the interest rate differential of the U.S.? Basically, there's no way for the U.S. to bring down rates really alone without Japan being a party to this actor in a complicit way to be able to mobilize that capital flow. So I think Japan is at a critical point in time where they are also experiencing a lot of challenges structurally. They are having a lot of problems, of course, with population generally, but also the cost of like inflation, not being something they've ever been used to, right? If you're in Japan, the normal is you actually got less money every year instead of a wage increase. And that was considered normal because everything went down in price. So imagine waking up one day post-COVID, like, oh, actually, now things are
Starting point is 00:42:22 going up in price. How are we going to re-inflate the economy? Which is what, you know, has actually in some ways been the thing that helped the U.S. subsidize this economy. It's like a direct challenge. So where do I see Japan emerging? I think Japan will be an incredible player for Bitcoin adoption because if Japan understands where the world is going in the store of value, the dollar hegemony might be challenged for, they should have an eye on a way to preserve wealth that touches Bitcoin. And so I do think when the U.S. does go on the journey of acquiring Bitcoin for their sovereign wealth or treasury assets, then Japan, must be a little bit privy to that because they would probably want to act in concert.
Starting point is 00:43:08 Now, I don't know if that would actually be the way it's sequenced, but I would imagine if the U.S. went alone, bought Bitcoin and called Japan and say, hey, we're buying Bitcoin. Just FYI, Japan would be pretty upset because they would say, hey, like, we have to do it together because I'm on the other side of the trade. So if you're going to front run me, then I'm going to front you. You can imagine this whole thing would happen pretty quickly. it's also one of the reasons why I think the U.S. has been unable so far to actually action Bitcoin acquisition.
Starting point is 00:43:37 Because once the U.S. starts doing it, there are some other tangential players who would be conflicted in how to approach their own economic security. And I think Japan is at the center of it. So, yeah, I think at the core, Japan is going to be a big player in ushering the era of Bitcoin adoption. I think it's also why meta planet has become such a phenomenon. on, if you are a Japanese investor and you've had no yield for so long and you finally see the chance to own this asset that is not only just incredibly volatile, but high performing, it's backed by Bitcoin, the one collateral that you can lean on that isn't, you know, you being the subservient nature to the funding model, you would immediately gravitate
Starting point is 00:44:17 towards it. And so I think the hit, the meteoric rise of meta planet is, is truly a cultural one where the Japanese investors are waking up for the first time to understanding what Bitcoin, can do for them, their wealth accumulation strategies, and their portfolio construction. And so this to me is obvious that meta planet is at the center of these colliding energies, too. Okay. So we have a bunch of different ingredients here. We have kind of, you know, the changing outlook for the U.S., you know, what role Japan plays in all of this. We've talked about the Triff and Dialecta that was the previous episode. And we have Bitcoin. I'm going to introduce new element.
Starting point is 00:44:58 we've talked you know obviously stable coins are becoming a thing like you know there is the stable coin bill making its way through Congress hopefully we'll see legislation this year fingers crossed because on that said it seems likely but I'm hearing like really wild things about what could happen so anyway TBD on that this recent circle IPO shows that there is definitely interest in this sector so let's let's just talk about this new ingredient do you think stable coins could play any role in helping the U.S. out of the Triffon dilemma, or is that only for Bitcoin or other non-governmental assets? Or just, you know, as we see, you know, because we're in the precipice, we all know, of stable coins becoming even bigger. So like, what role do you see them playing in kind of pretty
Starting point is 00:45:43 much, you know, you can take in any direction you want because we've talked about so many issues. But I'd be curious to hear how you think they're going to affect any and all of the above. Yeah, I absolutely believe that stable coin can play a key role in ushering a new era for US might, especially with the dollar. I do believe this is possible, but it's probably not in the ways that people are thinking about it today. So what do I mean by that? The Genie S Act for now contemplates a very benign version of what a stable coin that is regulated here in the United States can be. It is so benign, in fact, that it doesn't even include the idea of a a yield-bearing stable coin. So the stable coin that is up for legislation is essentially a fintech
Starting point is 00:46:29 play where Venmo can now speak to Zell and there isn't really a lot of interoperability problem of that particular money transfer being eased. It's really like a unit of account in a banking system that is actually being able to be co-opted by a lot of different parties. It's kind of the energy of stable coin today. That's very different from a yield-bearing stable coin, which is actually what most people are interested in unlocking the idea of a stable coin that actually generates money market fund like experiences. And then the third thing that's even more distant is actually an offshore issuer that can succeed in the onshore market here in the United States, like a tether.
Starting point is 00:47:12 That is not really contemplated at all, really in the scope of the Genius Act today, but is the biggest Tam and where I think the U.S. in the future could find the greatest value for its own dollar dominance, but we just haven't crossed that bridge yet. You know, people compare Circle to Tether a lot. I'm sure you get that conversation. I get it a bunch. But I always remind them that Circle and Tether could be like two different things in effect, even though they're both called stable coins.
Starting point is 00:47:43 Because Circle is really a different distribution business model where we're talking about just the flows of dollars in a way that's allowing instant settlement and transfer, which has some benefits to like, you know, money velocity and things that bring certain financial stability in reporting and transparency. But the unlock of tether is bigger. It's actually a euro dollar markets tam. Right. There we're talking about offshore dollars that actually doesn't have a lot of oversight, doesn't have a lot of surveillance, and what is the benefit of having dollars you can export to foreigners? That's an export business. And that's infinitely more valuable. The problem is it's also infinitely harder to regulate. And so I think the future of stable coin will be one in which the U.S. is able to work in partnership with this offshore
Starting point is 00:48:37 construct where you can start building in some ability to put not just short-term debt in it with like T-bills, but long-dated treasury bonds as part of the conversation. Because you have to go back. The number one problem right now is the U.S. has a tough time terming out long-dated debt because people do not want to fund long-dated debt at these higher rates and the credit worthiness itself is being challenged by U.S. spending and expenditures. So the problem is long-dated debt. What you can imagine with stable coins is if there was enough financial engineering, you could start stuffing in some long-dated debt in there as part of the backing of a one-to-one dollar ratio. But then the problem is, of course, long-dated debt fluctuates very wildly with
Starting point is 00:49:26 interest rate. So it doesn't have the one-to-one peg. And so people will say it's not possible. Well, it is possible if you securitize the stable coin. So now what I'm talking about is you have a stable coin that has like a senior tranche and a mezzanine tranche and a junior tranche. And if you believe in that kind of financial engineering, you can imagine the senior tranche is actually very stable because the impairment risk is very little to whatever is happening at the residual layer of the 30-year bonds price action, that the senior tranche of the securitization becomes the stable coin. And then you have other residual risk that is acquired for different interested stakeholders, the equity layer being the most volatile piece,
Starting point is 00:50:10 but one that also has a clear buyer in crypto, which is that crypto loves volatility. And they will buy many things that are volatile for all kinds of purposes, and it's found product market fit. So this is kind of like all the many ways to imagine what stable coins could look like in the future, but the key that I'm trying to highlight here is one, it needs a yield bearing component. And then two, it needs to be able to export it to foreign buyers to really drive value for the U.S. economy and the dollar hegemony. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:45 unfortunately the current version of the bill in the Senate is to ban yield bearing stable coins. So TBD on how that will work out. But just to understand, so you do think, though, that like if you, if all those things happen that you felt were necessary ingredients, would that help the U.S. kind of escape the Triffon dilemma or does that not apply? Is that like only for kind of Bitcoinish or non-governmental type assets? I don't think it helps you escape the Triffon Dilemma explicitly, but what you do get to now bring into the equation is you can start price discriminating between U.S. investors and offshore investors. So the problem with the Triffon Dilemma today is that the interest rate as set affects unilaterally both onshore U.S. citizens and offshore lenders and they're adversarial to each other because the price point is the same.
Starting point is 00:51:41 In fact, actually, it's beyond the same. There's tax benefits for offshore investors where there's portfolio interest margin exemptions where they're favored, actually, versus U.S. citizens. And so the thing that could happen with stable coins is you can start price discriminating a zone where the rate the U.S. investors get is not the same rate that the offshore investors get. And I think once you allow a little bit of that bandwidth to exist, where it's actually not one clearing single rate that offshore investors get. an insurer must exchange by, but a band lower end and an upper end where there's a bid offer
Starting point is 00:52:17 for that. That, I think, is going to afford an extremely powerful degrees of freedom for the U.S. to navigate its physical policies that hasn't happened yet to date. Yeah, basically it's like stable, sorry, it's basically like the U.S. dollar is just a blunt instrument and then a stable coin can, can like have numerous gradations that make it a much more fine-tuned instrument. And so it just gives central banks or whoever, like, more levers on which to pull to like try to help the U.S. in various ways. Is that how to think about it? That's right. Yeah. The overwhelming evidence is that offshore investors want to save in dollars,
Starting point is 00:52:58 want to hold dollar-based assets, want to hold dollar. And they're willing to pay a premium for it. The reality is that we haven't charged them for that premium. And that's why the U.S. citizens are on the other side of subsidizing these gains for offshore investors. And the unlock here could be, hey, we are now going to charge you for it. And I know you're not going to get the full, you know, 4.5% on the 10 year or 5% on the 30 year. We're going to get you a little less. But they will still do it because that's still preferred versus their own emerging market local bonds and local assets.
Starting point is 00:53:33 We just have never opened that territory for conversation because I think there has historically always been a little bit something uncouth about pricing. discrimination and you want to live kind of collaboratively with your neighbors. But the reality is there's a lot of tension today and this onshore versus offshore conflict is so real. It is so real. It's the rise of the entire political movement as we see as to why people are against immigration. And to then combat this, we do need to start exploring some of this white space that has historically been avoided. And if you do it right, I actually think there's an optimal outcome for both, which is U.S. investors benefit or an investor's benefit. Everybody wins.
Starting point is 00:54:10 Yeah, I mean, I think like it's almost like the U.S. has to switch its mindset from kind of a more traditional governmental way of things, way of looking at things to a business mindset. And so if I may apply a very bad analogy here, it's almost like surge pricing, right? It's like, you know, Uber's thing is, you know, demand and supply of drivers and that's how they determine what the different rates are. But like the U.S. could do the same, but they could do it to the dollar with stable coins and, you know, have different. metrics by which they're determining who gets what rate or whatever. But anyway, these, these are, it's, it requires like a mind shift. So out of curiosity, I just, so what I feel like also fits into this whole discussion is that I know you are not a fan of the Bitcoin's strategic Bitcoin Reserve. And you kind of alluded to this earlier, like about how if the US were to do that, then they would want to do it like with their partners, like with Japan, so it's not to screw people over. Is that kind of the only reason or can you expand a little bit more and why you're not a fan of the SBR?
Starting point is 00:55:11 First and foremost, I think the SBR is ultimately a thing that can be very good, but it has to be timed at the right moment. And I still think there are a lot of people who are not invested enough, frankly, in Bitcoin to be able to be a beneficiary of that outcome. And so most of the way money finds confidence is you actually have to build a deep, diverse layer of constituents who have ownership. at a cost basis in which they want to support it. So I am sympathetic to some of the European arguments that I hear
Starting point is 00:55:45 where Bitcoin wealth is so concentrated, and so the whole thing feels like a Ponzi when they're the ones selling into the newcomers and therefore they're profiting off of the new money. And of course that it is categorically false if you believe that Bitcoin is long-term valuable, but I am sympathetic to this sentiment to the extent that we need broad-based participation.
Starting point is 00:56:06 And so I think right now it's still a little bit too early in a way that not everyone has found broad-based participation, right? That's why VitWise exists. That's how we go out there. We talk to financial advisors, try to convince them why Bitcoin's useful. And then after that is all set up, then the great wealth effect that could come from a sovereign wealth fund price setting could benefit a lot of people. So I think I'm partial to a little bit of this path dependency mattering. And the second thing is the moment the U.S. does that, like the dollar hegemony will really be forever different. And I don't know if we're ready to have those conversations yet in a way that there hasn't been enough social consensus on how to imagine that new world order. So the sovereign wealth fund accumulation can't really front run the buy-ins of the social coalition of those who will support it in the long run. So that's the part where I think I just need more evidence of what that new SDR asset, that is censorship-resistant neutral asset can look like where a government can support it with credibility that is long-lasting and durable the way gold has.
Starting point is 00:57:20 And that is the one superpower gold I think still has today over Bitcoin, which is there's universal agreement culturally in a way that is almost indescribable that, gold is the thing that all sovereigns agree is valuable as the lender or a borrower of last resort. That's why China keeps accumulating. That's why the U.S. has Fort Knox at its highest kind of scrutiny with security clearance and protection. And Bitcoin just hasn't yet infiltrated the mines as a replacement for gold that must happen first socially before the U.S. enacts upon its financial might to start requiring Bitcoin. So I think it's inevitable. And at some level, many maxis in the Bitcoin community will say, oh, this is against the whole movement. It was never meant to be political.
Starting point is 00:58:09 The sovereigns should stay out of it. But I think that's way too simple-minded. Of course, we're humans. We live in society. We do need things we can find value in. And institutions have to play a role. We're not anarchies here. And I think that convergence is inevitable.
Starting point is 00:58:25 But you do want it to happen at a time when the world is ready for it. And right now, it just doesn't feel that ready. to have that Bretton Wood style reset button touched. But we will know, right? Like, the thing that I've been telling people is, like, you and I and everyone that is in their crypto community will know when the world is ready for that reset because it'll feel so inevitable and so urgent and so necessary
Starting point is 00:58:48 and so politically popular and so not controversial that it will feel so like obviously right. We need to happen. And right now, we're at the cusp of exploring this conversation. Yeah, it almost feels like if it were to happen now, it would create political opposition, which would create issues for it down the line. In the interest of time, let's move through some kind of like recent events that are top of mind.
Starting point is 00:59:14 So obviously we have this huge trend going on in the Bitcoin treasury company space. But a lot of these companies are trading at, you know, huge multiples relative to the underlying Bitcoin that they actually hold. So, you know, where do you think this is going? Like, would you buy any of these new ones that, that, that are. are trading at these high multiples, or how do you think about, you know, how to value these companies? Sure. I think these Bitcoin treasure companies are here to stay. I think that it is going to be a permanent fixture of our capital markets. And it's pretty simple. The reason is
Starting point is 00:59:49 companies want Bitcoin for the same reason individuals want Bitcoin. My colleague Matt Hogan has been saying this in a very simple way all along, which is corporations, fight the same cause that individuals are for which they want to store wealth away from fiatta basement. So I think that's one narrative of it. When you specifically talk about Bitcoin treasury companies, I think there's another category of those who are specifically being born to own just Bitcoin and actually financialize Bitcoin exposure as a permanent capital vehicle, which is distinct. And I also think that is a long-term viable product that's going to survive its time. And it's really because companies can do things like humans can't do,
Starting point is 01:00:35 right? Companies can borrow very cheaply. Companies can get credit ratings. Companies can do income trading activities at scale that humans at the retail level cannot. And so there's some value that will come out of scale for an operator who's able to capture the value out of the Bitcoin network. And because of that, there's something useful about a treasury company that is not the perfect proxy for my just owning a Bitcoin in cold custody or owning a Bitcoin ETF as another example. And right now we're seeing a lot of different models come online. Strategy has in a way pioneered the first version of it, which is engineering a way to get more Bitcoin exposure very cheaply that you and I could not, for instance, borrowing billions of dollars for zero percent. I could never do that, but here's a strategy who's able to do it and you can buy the shares to participate in it. And so that's a financial opportunity. I think in the future, it's going to become more nuanced and complex and people are going to start leveling up.
Starting point is 01:01:37 Well, beyond that financial arbitrage, like what else can you do? And I think that's where you're seeing some of these new companies try to exert some entrepreneurial and creative energy into their own version and remaking of the image of a Bitcoin treasury company. one in particular that's coming online called Strife has leaned in on the idea of generating alpha on the Bitcoin they hold, which is very distinct from Sailor's implementation that is just a passive holder of those Bitcoin assets in cold custody. There's another company that now is coming along and saying, hey, we can actually generate yield on this Bitcoin as well or actually principally invest better on acquiring Bitcoin cheaper than what the market provides that could accrue to the benefit. of the shareholder. And that's a version of an implementation we just haven't seen before. But I'm actually wildly optimistic that at some level, all of this hyperfinancialization of Bitcoin becomes at the core a bit of an asset management business.
Starting point is 01:02:36 Because you're setting up a permanent capital vehicle that is managing Bitcoin for perpetuity. And so then there are companies like Nakamoto, here I'm wearing proudly one of their shirts, who's trying to build an operating business leveraging the Bitcoin Treasury. which is the idea of having BTC incorporated as part of a treasury company that gives you exposure to Bitcoin-related operating cash flows in addition to the participation of principal gains of owning Bitcoin. And so that's different than anything we've seen before. We've never talked about a Bitcoin treasury company making real operating cash flow off of the Bitcoin ecosystem that is synergistic to them being funded by Bitcoin. Like that's a really cool, almost like a co-op model of supporting the Bitcoin ecosystem. ecosystem through a treasury play. And so the thing that I will just say at the end of the day is
Starting point is 01:03:26 there's many of these coming online. You see one almost popping up every single day, not just here in the U.S., but across the world. I think South Korea just launched one over this past weekend, and there's many more to come. And I think in the end, the number one thing that matters the most is the person who is being a capital steward of those interests represent what Bitcoiners really care about. Because Bitcoin is not gold. Bitcoin is, is not this hard metal you put under your mattress and call it a day. It's very much a living, breathing thing. It has developers. It has code. And it changes. And that's the thing you know, Lord, because you follow the Bitcoin journey, as I've known it, but Bitcoin is fragile and it has to
Starting point is 01:04:07 be protected in the ways that other assets have nowadays disappeared from the lack of such protection, the way that Bitcoin has survived. And so as we're seeing these debates happening between, you know, Bitcoin Core versus Nots and, you know, OPCTV and Covenants and bringing different financial channels to bring a new model to the security challenges that Bitcoin might have long term. These are super important conversations. And I think there will come a world where the Treasury companies will become important stewards of being governance actors to ensuring the survivability of Bitcoin's interests for the interests of their stakeholders. It's not tomorrow. It's not next year. But in the next five to 10 years, I think that's going to be a big component of how people will even choose to think about which Bitcoin treasury companies they want to invest in the ones that represent their core values.
Starting point is 01:05:00 All right. So last question for you. This weekend, we saw the news that X and Polly Market now have come together. They're doing some kind of partnership. And I saw you tweet. Like honestly, when I saw this, I immediately thought of you. because of our discussion about gambling and polymarket and, you know, whatever. But, you know, I saw you tweeted, if the Radical Portfolio Manifesto were a single moment, this would be it. Pure signal, pure disruption. So expound on that. Yeah. I have waited, I think, for the possibility of such an announcement because it's exactly, exactly what the energy of the article portfolio is. And it touches upon all of the five points of the manifest to itself, right? Polymarket is an information. market first and foremost to help people discover what is true or false.
Starting point is 01:05:49 In a world where I told you that there is no such thing as true or false in many ways in a world that's very challenging to navigate filled with misinformation and government censorship. So polymarkets are champion for being an arbitrage of truth that is backed by the community's interests in wanting to decipher that market. And then the other thing that's really important is it's decentralized, right? So all of these things are happening in ways that every one of these betting markets can be set up without a lot of intervention by someone centralized to kind of shut things down.
Starting point is 01:06:21 And it really is like a people's movement to wanting to have an events monitor for things they care about. So that's really important. That touches upon one of the manifesto theme points about the growing unease of centralized authority. And I think the most important thing here is Polymarket really helps people for the first time understand that the world is not deterministic. And the number one thing that I try to tell all the young people as they're growing up today, my son and my daughter included, is nothing exists as a zero or a hundred. It just lives on a spectrum. It could be right at one point. It could be wrong at another point. But based on external factors, these things are mortaring all the time. And that probabilistic
Starting point is 01:07:08 understanding of outcome is like a really important trait, I think, to survive in the future when you have to be empowered to be able to make your own decisions. And I think this is very correlated to the rise of AI in ways that we all know AI is actually a little bit deterministic. And the only way to fight that is to be probabilistic thinkers. And it's funny, you mentioned the tweet because some time ago, Shane, the founder of Polymarket, tweeted to me directly in my DM and kind of expressed his support for kind of like the radical portfolio movement. And I had the day because I couldn't believe that he even read my tweet, but to hear from him directly where he was like, this is exactly like what the world needs and the ways of thinking
Starting point is 01:07:56 about like opportunities in the future, especially for the movement on crypto, I felt such alignment there that when you think about what matters the most and all those manifesto points, this is it. This is it. And I think we have to root for polymarkets success. because the information market is the most important thing. And if it's powered by people like you and I who have edge over information that institutions by definition don't have edge in,
Starting point is 01:08:20 it's not that different from the idea of professional gambling being something that you have an edge in that you could do because the information is valuable and it's free and anyone can participate. And you're not gated by Wall Street's control of information. Yes, yes. Honestly, when I saw that, I just, it was like, wow, Jeff must be feeling really good, right now. This is before I saw your tweet. But anyway, Jeff, this has been amazing. I didn't get to ask everything, so we'll have to have you back some time in the future. We already went over this last
Starting point is 01:08:50 week, but you can find Jeff at DGT 10011. Jeff, is there any other thing you would want to plug? No, that's it. I have a substack as well where I try to do some long form writing. It's in my profile. We'd love to have continued readership. And otherwise, yeah, let's keep the movement going. You can message me anytime if you ever want to chat about the Radical Portfolio Manifesto and its movement. It's been such a pleasure having you twice in two weeks. I so appreciate it. Thank you so much for having me. It's been such a pleasure. Thanks so much for joining us today. To learn more about Jeff and the Radical Portfolio Theory, check out the show notes for this episode. Unchained is produced by me, Laura Shin,
Starting point is 01:09:31 both of help from Matt Pilchard, Juan Omanovich, Pamma Jemdar, and Margaret Curia. Thanks for listening. Thank you.

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