Unchained - On-Chain Analytics Show ETH Accumulation Is Greater Than That of BTC - Ep.264

Episode Date: August 17, 2021

NFTs are the talk of the metaverse, EIP 1559 just went live, and DeFi stats are rebounding. On Unchained, Fredrik Haga, cofounder and CEO at Dune Analytics, along with Richard Chen, general partner at 1confirmation, discuss the booming Ethereum ecosystem through the lens of on-chain data, diving into NFTs, DeFi, ETH, and their favorite layer 2s. Show highlights: why Ethereum is on such a pronounced upswing why on-chain metrics lead to superior information reporting  mind-blowing OpenSea statistics why NFTs are so hot at the moment how Richard explains NFTs to normies whether the NFT market is sustainable what makes an NFT drop pop and why profile pics (PFPs) matter how Polygon NFTs compare to Ethereum NFTs the main driving force behind DeFi usage  how Richard measures the total amount of DeFi users what brings new users into DeFi what DEX trends Fredrik is keeping his eye on why structured products are crucial to DeFi’s continued success how Ethereum is doing since the London hard fork why NFT drops are like 2017 ICOs what metric shows ETH adoption outpacing BTC adoption among institutions which layer 2 solutions are Fredrik and Richard excited about why Richard considers Binance Smart Chain a centralized blockchain why Fredrik likes what Solana is building Richard and Fredrik’s predictions for the NFTs, DeFi, and ETH going forward   Thank you to our sponsors! Crypto.com: https://crypto.onelink.me/J9Lg/unchainedcardearnfeb2   Tezos: https://tezos.com/discover?utm_source=laura-shin&utm_medium=podcast-sponsorship-unconfirmed&utm_campaign=tezos-campaign&utm_content=hero   Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/    Episode Links   Richard Chen Twitter: https://twitter.com/richardchen39 1confirmation: https://www.1confirmation.com/ Dune Analytics dashboards: https://dune.xyz/rchen8 Fredrik Haga Twitter: https://twitter.com/hagaetc Dune Analytics: https://dune.xyz/home  Dune Analytics dashboards: https://dune.xyz/hagaetc  On-chain dashboards Stablecoins: https://dune.xyz/hagaetc/stablecoins Lending: https://dune.xyz/hagaetc/lending DEXs: https://dune.xyz/hagaetc/dex-metrics  ETH 2.0 deposits: https://dune.xyz/hagaetc/eth2-0-deposits OpenSea: https://dune.xyz/rchen8/opensea DeFi users: https://dune.xyz/rchen8/defi-users-over-time  NFT prices: https://dune.xyz/rchen8/NFT-prices  SuperRare: https://dune.xyz/rchen8/superrare_4  Nexus Mutual: https://dune.xyz/eliasimos/Nexus-Mutual-Financials  ETH fees burned: https://dune.xyz/rchen8/ETH-fees-burned-in-1confirmation-portfolio  Base Fees: https://dune.xyz/msilb7/EIP1559-Base-Fee-x-Tip-by-Block Unchained episodes mentioned Ultra Sound Money: https://unchainedpodcast.com/is-eth-on-its-way-to-becoming-ultra-sound-money-yes-says-justin-drake/ EIP 1559: https://unchainedpodcast.com/ethereums-eip-1559-will-solve-some-problems-but-big-ones-will-remain/  OpenSea: https://unchainedpodcast.com/how-nft-platform-opensea-plans-to-maintain-its-competitive-advantage-ep-232/    Miscellaneous Zed Run: https://zed.run/ Axie Infinity: https://axieinfinity.com/ Qiao Wang tweet: https://twitter.com/QwQiao/status/1425773846418821125 Ethereum burning: https://ultrasound.money/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hi, everyone. Welcome to Unchained, your no-hype resource for all things crypto. I'm your host, Laura Shin, a journalist with over two decades of experience. I started covering crypto six years ago, and as a senior editor at Forbes was the first mainstream media reporter to cover cryptocurrency full-time. This is the August 17th, 2021 episode of Unchained. My book, The Cryptopians, Idealism, greed, lies in the making of the first big cryptocurrency craze is available for pre-order on Amazon. Barnes & Noble, book, or any of your favorite bookstores. Go to Bitley slash Cryptopians. That's B-I-T-L-Y-S-C-R-Y-P-T-O-P-I-N-S to pre-order today. Polymarket is the leading information markets platform where you can trade on the most hotly debated topics, whether it's politics, coronavirus, current events, and more, all on the blockchain. With over $130 million traded on the platform, Polymarket is the go-to place to settle the biggest debates of the day. For a limited time, sign up with referral code unchanged to get your first trade reimbursed up to $100. Tasos is smart money. That's redefining what it means to hold an exchange value in a digitally connected world. Discover how people are reimagining the world around

you on Tezos. The Crypto.com app lets you buy, earn, and spend crypto all in one place. Earn up to 8.5% interest on your Bitcoin and 14% interest on your state. PAYPELCOins, paid weekly. Download the Crypta.com app and get $25 with the code Laura. The link is in the description. Today's topic is on-chain metrics for ETH, DFI, and NFTs. Here to discuss our Richard Chen, General Partner at Crypto Venture Fund, One Confirmation, and Frederick Haga, co-founder and CEO at Dune Analytics. Welcome, Richard and Frederick. Great to be here. Good to be here. Thanks. When I first had the idea for this show, it was when crypto had kind of broadly been moving sideways for a while. And at least for Bitcoin, the on-chain analytics actually showed clear movement from weak hands to strong hands or long-term holders or hodlers, depending on your terminology.

And I got curious about what on-chain analytics were showing for EF and related assets. However, since then, actually, EF has been on an upswing. And to my mind, largely that's been driven by the adoption of EIP-1559, which had an effect on the monetary policy, which we will describe later in the show, and also driven by NFT activity. So at the time of this recording, which is Friday, August 13th, the price of EF is roughly $3,000 of from the low of $2,000 range a month ago. And that's somewhat remarkable because at the moment, the current language for crypto tax regulation in the U.S. does not bode well for developers in the U.S. However, I think, you know, as we'll see in the show, the on-chain analytics really, you know,

maybe are kind of like divorced from all that activity. So Richard and Frederick, why don't you each start with where you think the market is when it comes to EF and why the price has risen this last month. And why don't we start with Richard? Yeah. So first I'll caveat by saying I'm not a trader, so I'm not making any short-term price predictions. But I will say that a lot of people have undervalue 1559. There's just kind of a general lack of knowledge on how that affects the monetary policy of ETH versus like compared to like the Bitcoin having where people, I guess, institutions and people outside of crypto generally knew what the having was and how that was going to affect Bitcoin. So there's sort of like an information asymmetry that I've seen

from talking to like both institutions and like even like people in crypto, which I think explains part of the recent price action. And Frederick, what about you? Yeah, I think I pretty much agree. It seems like you still get kind of this ketchup type of effects on the the information on some of this or less accessible things going on. And suddenly everybody's all over it and then you get these huge run-ups because suddenly there's headlines everywhere about this new change while most retail investors don't necessarily understand or see it coming, even though in theory that information has been public for a long time. Yeah, yeah.

And probably, you know, the Ethereum community, there's kind of like that hardcore group. But you're right. I think the institutions are the ones that really move the needle when it comes to price. Well, also whales. But all right. So before we get into the meat of the show, we want to just highlight for the listeners what it is about on-chain metrics that make this space different from traditional finance. So Richard and Frederick, can you explain why it is that you like to look at on-chain metrics

and how you view that as being different from traditional finance? I think it's worth thinking about for just for a moment how through traditional finance works and data. And essentially what happens there is do you have kind of real-time data on trading of assets on the changes, right? But beyond that, all the other stuff, the economic activity that goes on in companies and so forth, that's siloed in a company, sits on their, like, proprietary servers and systems, and then, sort of way later, like, three months or four months or whatever, after it happens, it goes into, like, this PDF,

and a public company will disclose, sort of, their numbers and the actual financial activity that happened to them. And then, sort of, that is, there's an whole industry on, like, Wall Street and whatnot around sort of analyzing this and understanding what's going on, And there's like people paying or hedge funds, for instance, paying tons of money to get like a slight information advantage by figuring out something from like, you know, Earth photos or whatever it might be. And then on sort of in the crypto world, you have these financial products that's obviously built on the blockchain, which is like a shared public backend for the world. And anyone can look into it. And this is like profound implications for like just how information.

information works around what's going on. So it's interesting because you essentially then can, with something like doing or some other analytics tool, you can go in and analyze and dissect this data the way you want from the activity that happens. And you have them kind of financial products and that actual financial activity that would usually go in like a PDF three months later is occurring right there and then. Like there's actual revenues or, you know, financial value being move around. And I mean that you could directly, publicly understand what's happening in this financial system, which is just absolutely radically different from the existing world. And super duper exciting. And I think so very much underutilize and they're appreciated by a lot of folks.

And I think you can even think of it as like the public in crypto has poor. for free access to better data tools about what's going on in the systems than probably any bank CEO or regulator in the traditional world. If you're the CEO of a big bank, what assets do you hold and what's the exposure and all that? And like you probably have a pretty good dashboard for that, but it's highly likely that it's actually not as good and as comprehensive as what you can find on chain metrics because anyone in the role can go and analyze this live.

So I think that's incredibly exciting. And one of these second order effects of crypto that still kind of not quite proliferated into the market in the world yet, but it's super, super interesting. And I also want to add, like the people who recognize this the most are actually the founders, like the D5 founders who came from the traditional finance world and like saw both worlds. So a good example is Hugh Karp from Nexus Mutual, where before. before he started Nexus, for 15 years, he was a CFO of Munich, a large insurance company. And then whenever he shows Nexus's KPIs and dashboards to his friends in the traditional world, they're all like blown away because like those people like can never find a dashboard for their traditional insurer about KPIs such as like active premiums in force, like price

to book, like all of these like fundamental KPIs, which are just like hidden. in like quarterly PDFs. Whereas because Nexus Mutual is on chain on Ethereum, you can get all that data in real time. And it's just, it just like amazes them like how much transparency there is for DFI. Yeah. And one other thing I would add to it is it's not even just the on chain metrics, but even just being able to see how the community is talking in the forums.

Because normally for a company or whatever, the decision makers, whatever their thoughts are would be hidden. They wouldn't be something that would be just available to any random shareholder. But in a crypto community, you can kind of see like, what is a community saying? Where is sentiment going? Like that kind of thing. And so that also is another difference. All right. So let's dive now into these metrics. And I actually, so even though, you know, the topic is kind of like EF broadly, which is composed of a few different topics, I really, want to start with NFTs because that's where the action is nowadays. And when I was doing research for this episode, my mind was just kind of blown because, you know, if you've been listening

my show, I haven't really done much on NFTs except for Axi Infinity. And so I was just like, whoa. But anyway, all right. So what are the notable aspects you're seeing in the NFT market right now, especially when it comes to on-chain metrics? Well, first, like open-stage, like, open-stays, like, Like, there are KPI that, like, completely exploded in, like, monthly volume. I saw the other day that there's, like, only 30-something companies in the world that have, like, over a billion in GMV. And, like, OpenC is, like, on pace to be, like, one of those. And, like, the company has only been around for, like, about three years. So I guess a lot of the volume growth has been driven by, like, PFPs, which are, like, these avatar projects that, I know people like to trade in specter.

on and also like use as their avatars and like open C's like then benefiting from just being the marketplace for a search and discovery for these avatars. So that's been like one of the big trends in NFTs in the last few weeks. And what is a PFP? A profile picture. Oh, okay. I think what crazy to see with the open C volume is how it it shut up to, I guess, around 100 million in trading volume a month in, like, early this year. And it felt like that was like really an explosive moment. And then came a little bit down in, like, April or something. And then now it's like 700 million so far in August.

So it's like, it's insane when you see some of these hockey sticks sort of play out where you think that, oh, that was like the peak. And then that just absolutely dwarfed. a couple of months later. Wow, wait. So it's already $700 billion for August? Million. Yeah, $765 million in August, which it's only been about half the month so far. That's crazy because the volume in July was $325 million.

So. Yep. Yeah. Okay. It's already more than doubled July, and it's only been less than half of the month. Okay. Wow. Yeah.

And I did also see a glass node report that said that 63,000 addresses interacted with OpenC in July, but that in the first three days of August alone, already 28,000 addresses had interacted with OpenC. So at that... And like now it's up to 92,000 with the first half of August. Wow. Okay. So like all of their KPIs have like dwarfed, like all of August, like KPIs have dwarfed July's. And like it's not been the end of the month yet. We're not even halfway through.

And just also, in case people don't know, KPI stands for key performance indicator. You can see it in Richard's public doing that one. It's all out there. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Which we'll put that in the show notes. So when you see all that, like, you know, do you get a sense of what is driving this interest in NFTs or who's getting into the space or like why it's growing so exponentially? Yeah, I had this mental model that defy is crypto for elites and like NFTs is like crypto for normies. And like the reason I say that is like for defy, there's just kind of a higher barrier to entry.

Like one, gas fees, a price out a lot of people. And like two, there's a lot of like financial vocabulary you need to know. Like you need to know like what derivatives are. Like what's a perpetual swap like how options work. And there's like a lot of trading terminology, which is why a lot of the. defy activity has been driven by whales and traders and, like, more sophisticated people. Whereas NFTs, like, when I explained NFTs to my parents, like, they understood it immediately just because it's something very relatable to, like, most, like, everyday people

because you're just, like, buying a culture and, like, you know, investing in, like, athletes, art, music, entertainment. And, like, that's just something that retail people, like, understand better. which is why if you look at like kind of mainstream media coverage, you saw like NFTs cross the chasm to like mainstream attention, like much faster than defy. And can you tell us how it was that you explained NFTs to your parents? Because yeah, I'm just curious to hear how you would explain it to a non-cryptop person.

Yeah, I think like the best analogy is like collectibles, like things like sports cards, beanie babies, like these assets that you find like have like sentimental value with two. And like it could also have like monetary value except rather than like kind of like a physical asset. It's just like a digital like file on the blockchain. And I'd say also conceptually I think it's pretty easy for most people to to get to the conclusion that a lot of art is just sort of scarcity and like a claim on something that scarce that would matter. Not sort of per se, but

physical object or whatever. And I think there's this interesting analogy where it's like if you perfectly manage to recreate like Da Vinci painting like down to the atom would you want the original that's like

done by Da Vinci or do you want like the perfect replica which is the exact same physical thing like obviously you want the original but there's nothing physical that's that's separating those two, right? And I feel like that's, even though, like, you can send a JPEG file wherever, to whoever, that's not sort of the scarcity in art. It's not about distribution

and production, first and foremost. It's about authenticity and knowing that you have something that others can't have. And I think that's why NFTs are actually not that hard to grasp, because it's kind of hard to dispute the claims I just made, I think. And I think also when you have that kind of emotional response to something, then for whoever that person is that has that response, it could be what to them is like a priceless object. And so in a way that means that like the prices of these might seem outrageous to other people, but to that person, it's worth it. And that's really all that matters. So, you know, as we were talking about these open C metrics really, really show that it's ramping up. very, very quickly. And I just wonder, do you think that this level of interest is sustainable,

or do you think that we're kind of in the beginning of a bubble or maybe at the peak of a bubble? I don't know. What's your sense of where this market activity is going? Well, the last time, like, OpenC's KPIs, like, when kind of hockey stick was in March. And then, you know, people thought that it was bubble. And then it went down for a little bit. But it was, like, the shortest bubble ever. And, like, like, two months later, then it's, like, we just.

new all-time highs. So I think like this is like a huge new market that's like uniquely enabled and like OpenC has like the upside to be like the next eBay or even like have a higher like market cap than eBay. Just like how Coinbase has like a higher market cap than like traditional brokerages. So I think there's still a lot of upside potential for NFTs in OpenC broadly. So I'll take a little bit of a counter position and say that I think that. On the long time horizon, I think what Richard is saying makes sense and is indeed true. But I do get some sort of of the same feelings as like 2017 ICOs where it's like there's a lot of opportunistic folks hopping on right now. And it seems like there's some like relatively low effort projects that sort of end up turning into money for people that might not be around for the long term.

But anyway, I also think that, like, there's some really proper long-term stuff being created, and eventually I think, like, these metrics will be dwarfed again. But my sense is that the current sort of hype will probably sort of cool off a little bit for some time as well. Yeah, and I... Yeah, generally, like, the volume, like, graphs, it's like it goes up and then it goes down a little bit. But, like, each new all-time high, like, dwarfs, like, the previous all-time high. So it's not like a perfectly up into the right hockey stick graph, but like it kind of has like many bubbles where like the long term cycle is still like up into the right.

Yeah. And what I would say here is that there's probably a difference between like a bubble for open sea, meaning that the market for open sea could continue to grow and grow and grow. But for individual NFT drops, it might be that the prices for those are inflated. whereas like, you know, the total addressable market for NFTs maybe probably, we've barely scratched the surface for it yet. But I actually did then want to ask you about that for the individual NFTs. Can you talk a little bit about what you believe it is that makes these NFTs, or do you believe that these NFTs will keep their value over time? Or do you think that right now

what's happening is that the prices are popping now, but that over? for the long term, they'll kind of deflate? Like, do you feel like this is sort of a situation where people are like, like, a gold rush and they're just kind of trying to flip these NFTs? I say 99% of NFTs won't keep their value long term. I think it's going to, like, consolidate into, like, a winner-take-all market. And, like, that's generally true of, like, the traditional world where, like, LeBron James, like, cards are, like, worth, or does a magnitude more than, like, some random NBA player

or a painting by Picasso is worth more than some random artist. Like the blue chip NFTs, I'd say right now, are like one-of-one crypto art on super rare by artists like Xcopi, Pacatel, and others. And then for collectibles, I think the big three are Cryptopunks, me bits, and board apes. And like the long tail of collectibles, like what I've seen is like mostly traders and like flipping right now. Yeah, what do you think of this Ether Rock thing? I haven't heard of that one. Oh, the rocks, that they're just different shades, that they're all the same rock. Oh, yeah, there's a bunch of these avatars, yeah, projects.

So it's like addition of 10,000 each has, like, different attributes. And then people pay, like, 2,000 guay to, like, mint them, like, when it drops. So, yeah, very 2017. But actually, the Etherrock thing was from 2017. and that like people recently rediscovered the smart contract and then they finished out minting the rest of the rocks. That's what happened. I think there's in terms of the value maintaining, I think also and I think Richard is correct in the sense that like a lot of artists like you get this winter takes all less and a lot of culture. But I think that's also an aspect of this like a thousand to true fans thing that like,

if you have a thousand fans on the internet, you can probably make a living of what you do because if you get $10 from each, then suddenly it matters. And I think that could be the case for a lot of the creators that are not necessarily huge or going to be huge for the next break or whatever, but they could still now actually issue something

and have a, if they have a fan base of 1,000 fans, they could actually sell something. something scarce to them and have them as part of their community and actually make money of it. And I think that's pretty exciting. And just the fact that any creator can issue some authentic sort of work like previously in music, typically you kind of have to do merch or you have to do concerts, right? Because that's the only thing that's actually scarce. But now that you can say like you have this gold version of a song or whatever it might be,

you can actually or financially tap into your audience globally without having to sort of do the physical thing. And I think that makes a lot of sense and to large extent a lot of merch and whatnot is just a proxy for, you know, scarce thing that the artist created. And that's especially true for video artists,

so visual artists. Whereas before, like the primary revenue stream for visual artists was commissions. Like they would do an ad for a Fortune 500 company. I kind of do the visuals for that. And like that's how they made a living. Because like these digital artists don't do sell paintings or physical like works of art. But now with NFTs, they can actually sell like basically the digital equivalent of paintings.

And like that's a more like one to one like translation of like value like their creative activity and like how much like value they're getting out of it rather than having to rely on like commissions or like some of these. like other proxies for making a living. So like that's huge for these artists just to have like a new business model for them. Yeah. So, you know, what we were saying earlier about how 99% of these may not retain their value. In a way, you know, that's just for the consumer or the investor or whatever you want to call them. But when it comes to the creator, actually they're gaining a lot more value than they would through traditional routes. So as a creator myself, I would kind of applaud that model.

So now let's kind of talk about, you know, how this activity is affecting the different blockchains. Richard, I did see your partner, Nick Tomino, a tweet, quote, NBA Top Shots, $350 million plus in venture funding is an awesome product. But there's now six NFT projects with roughly zero in a lot. venture funding doing consistently more volume. Why? Ethereum. And then I saw that Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures and Roham, Gerrit Gozlu, of Deppar Labs, which created NBA Topshot, kind of got into a little tweet discussion with him about it. And, you know, Fred said, oh, it's because it's not NBA season and Flo has new

offerings in store. And Roam said, quote, none of us would be talking about NFTs if Topshot was on Ethereum. It would have failed out of the gate with impossibly poor UX. So when you look at these metrics, I was curious, what do you think is the future of these different blockchains that support NFTs? Like, do you guys think that Ethereum will continue to remain in the lead? Or do you think other chains will take market share or maybe even overtake Ethereum? I think at the end of the day, it comes down to like scalability and like how much gas price, like prices out like retail users.

So I see Ethereum as great for high dollar value low throughput use cases. So like one of one crypto where you're going to spend five, six figures on a piece of art, it doesn't matter if you're paying $20 to bid on the artwork because like you're, and you end up paying like way more. Before these like in-game assets and like these maybe like $510 NFTs, then it makes more sense to be on a scalable blockchain. And we've actually seen a big explosion of usage on Polygon, which is an Ethereum side chain. So OpenC recently, a few months ago, they deploy their contracts to Polygon.

So now creatives can create like mint new NFTs on Polygon. And like the gas fees there are maybe like one, two cents. So it's negligible. So there's actually a game called Zed Run on Polygon that's been taking off. And it's like these like horses that you race. And like they've been driving a lot of the NFT activity and volume on Polygon. So overall, I'd say there's definitely room for other chains. that enable like scalability and like new use cases of NFTs.

And I think like Polygon is one. Axi Infinity has their own layer two called Ronin. And there's also flow. But those tend to be the big chains I can think of. I think I think there's like a lot of the same problems as with other Ethereum alternatives in the sense like for instance, you know you would need like funds to buy this stuff. Like if you want to buy an NFT on Ethereum, like there's a high likelihood that you actually have like some EIT or stable coins in the wallet that you could use to fund that.

And then sort of in this other world of a new chain, then it's kind of hard to get started. But also, I guess some of these are kind of taking a different route and then trying to reach audiences that don't currently have an Ethereum wallet. and then that could make a lot of sense. So I think it's still very early. I'm very excited to see sort of what the metrics look like by the end of this year on these new layer 2s on Ethereum and see what the usage actually look like. It's still very preliminary and kind of hard to understand exactly how much usage they're actually getting and see it out across all the different systems.

That's also something we're working on on to see just like stack up against each other all the layer 2s and the different layer 1s and see where the activity is actually moving to. Okay, yeah, I do have some questions about layer 2s, but we'll kind of cover that a little bit later on the show. I actually did want to ask one other thing about kind of like NFTs from the buyer perspective. You know, I did notice that like in the last 30 days,

NFT's secondary sales have doubled. It was about 15,000 a month ago. It's more than 30,000 as of Wednesday. you know, what do you think accounts for that? And maybe it's just the fact that there's more NFTs, but do you see that secondary sales will continue to be a big part of the NFT activity on an ongoing basis? Or do you think it's just now because we may be in this kind of hype cycle and people are sort of like flipping them? I think secondary sales are healthy.

And like this is really pronounced in like crypto arts. So August is actually the first month that's like secondary sales. sales eclipse primary sales for super rare, which is the largest crypto or marketplace. And I think the reason is because like the OG artists like Xcopy, Coldi, Hackatow and others, their floor prices all like rose dramatically. So like kind of the NFT community is like kind of coming to consensus that these are like the OG one of one crypto art that are going to be good sorts of value. And that's why there's been a lot of big secondary sales. Like if a platform doesn't have a lot of secondary sales,

then it's mostly just like artists doing drops, but those NFTs aren't going to have, don't have much value if they're not being resold at like significant markups because people don't think of them as like OGR works. Okay. Yeah, so I guess we'll sort of have to see over time how this plays out for some of the other names that aren't the OGs. All right, so in a moment, we're going to now switch topics and touch on D5, which I know a lot of people are interested in.

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So for Defi in the last few months, it's been in a little bit of a lull down from some of the highs in May, but over the last month it's actually risen steadily. So what's your take on what's happening now with Defi? I think it's kind of established itself at a pretty solid position, if you will. If you look at, for instance, Dextrading volumes that, absolutely exploded like over essentially the last year started from to and then it's it peaked in May but now we see so essentially in May it was 170 billion dollars traded on decentralized exchanges and essentially all the months before May and now after May we're at around

80 billion dollars so it's not even though it's sort of down from that peak it's still like a very substantial amount to just put it in perspective. If you look at like the main numbers, check you're picking a little bit, but in 2019, it was 250 million. In 2020, it was one billion. So up for X. And then now in 2021, it was 170 billion, which is like up 170 X over the last year, right? So you've had this absolutely undeniable rise in these metrics.

where all of this went from, you know, a promising toy to actually showing volumes that, you know, uniswap was over, Coinbase on certain days. And essentially, it's managed to establish itself on that position where this is something that's been very actively used and the trading volumes are significant on all months and in all days, despite some fluctuations. And that's, frankly, also what happens for traditional financial markets. When there's price volatility, the volumes go up and that the same thing is playing out in the deck space. To me, that only sort of tells us that this is actually being used as any other financial markets, right? Which is pretty amazing.

It's really only two years since it was just like this tiny thing with a few hundred million dollars in training volume. and now it's undeniably here and staying. So that's, I think that's at least really telling of sort of the DFI space, even though it's still up and down. Richard, do you want to add anything? Yeah, I think like DFI activity largely just follows like price action. So, you know, when there was a lot of trading activity, like when prices were high in like April and May. and then it's pretty correlated with that.

And out and loans, I think outstanding loans now are like around 21 billion, and that's up about 3x over the last year. So a year ago it was around $7 billion. So it's like significant decrease, but kind of less exponential than the next side. But it keeps growing and kind of same with stable. coins. I think the issuance now is around 80 billion in stable coins on Ethereum. It's like consistently, think around 100 billion a day that's being transferred. Let me double check that I'm saying this correctly. I'm sorry, it's about 20 billion in like daily trading,

like transfer volume of stable coins. So I'd say sort of all of these things are going up and to the right, even though at various pace. Yeah, one other thing that I want to ask about was, so Richard, I know that your Dune Analytics board has this, like, a dashboard, I guess, for a number of defy users. But I have to quibble with the phrasing there because is it really users? It's like wallets, right? Yeah, unique addresses.

Yeah, which I have a disclaimer at the top of the dashboard because, like, that's always the first. Yeah, you can never post these stats without getting that one. right? But why don't you I always get like Twitter mentions because Why don't you just make the language more accurate? Just say unique addresses.

It's already named if I use like it's the link for the dash. But can't you change the title anyway even though the link the URL is the old link? Yeah, I have the disclaimer already in the title. Okay, well yeah, I would actually just change the language but

you do whatever you want. But I did wonder, So I don't know what we can glean from that, but do you actually think that the number of users has increased? Or do you think it's just the same kind of core group of people that are, you know, kind of being good with their Opsack and, you know, using different wallets or what's going on there? I mean, the number of users has definitely increased.

I mean, you can discount it by maybe like a factor of five. Or like, however, like what you think the average number of wallets that a user uses. I think mainly because during DFI summer, when you had like yield farming, all these crazy interest rates, that brought a lot of new people into DFI. That was like responsible for like the first part of the exponential growth. So like a number of users like in DFI is still like increased significantly over the last year. And right now would you say that the DFi space is still attracting new users? And if so, what's bringing them in? I think yield is a big thing. just because like, you know, we're in a zero interest rate environment.

And like when you can earn like 10 to 15% APYs on stable coins in DFI right now, that's just attractive to a lot of people. So I know of like friends personally outside of crypto who have like started to move money into crypto to like earn those yields. I expect that to that trend to like continue over time. In one inches June dashboard, they track. how many addresses that they have as users that are new or old. And I think they are, so they have basically the second most users after Uniswop.

So Uniswop is at like around 130,000 addresses per week. And I think one inch does about 30,000. And looking at their stats, they have about 40% are existing. And 60% are actually new. So whether that means that people getting new addresses or it's actually new users, of course, you can never exactly know, it's at least not just the same addresses interacting all the time. Okay. So, yeah, it's hard to conclude anything. And, well, one other thing that I wanted to ask about, so we did talk about Dex's. And Frederick, you did make a few comments about lending, but I did want to ask, like, are there any other trends that you are seeing there? Lending is interesting because in one way it moves a little bit slower, you know, because you need to have collateral and you can have sort of, you need to be more careful with risks and volatility than in sort of the trading space, right? So I think that in that sense, it's like fewer assets and can just not the same extent sort of shift around super quickly.

One thing that I can mention, it's pretty cool. I mentioned how this open data enables new cases. And one thing Maker has been doing, it's like building a June dashboard with their actual financial statement, like you kind of would see for a bank. So they have a balance sheet. They have profit and loss. And you can see this live from the blockchain. And one interesting thing you can see is that in May, they did like 30 million in revenues. and I think 20-ish of that was lending income,

and then 10 million on top of that was liquidation income. And then it went back to just being lending income and not that much liquidations. So that's like a fascinating thing you can now actually see in the data how these systems revenues in addition to kind of their exposure risks actually are affected by events. All right. Yeah, this is clearly, as we were talking about earlier, something that's new and different.

So then now just a general question. So, you know, obviously we started discussing NFTs because that's at the moment where all this activity is. But, you know, I did think last year that, oh, maybe Defi will be one of the drivers of the next bull market. But at the moment, I'm kind of like, oh, maybe it's going to be NFTs. So what's your sense of where Defi is headed for the rest of the year and what role it will play in this bull market? I think the next thing in Defi is derivatives because I think

a lot of the spot markets and like fundamental building blocks in Defi have already been laid down. So you have like lending and borrowing like compound AVE, you have spot markets like Uniswap. But there are still like spaces and derivatives in like defy are still wide open. Like for example, options is still like a wide open problem and like no project to date has like and defy has like captured significant market share in options just because it's a very hard problem to solve and you can't map traditional finance options like how those are designed one to one on defy um so we also we just invested in a project called primitive uh which is launching in a few months and like they're going to be like the uniswap of options in terms of like creating um

like a very zero to one AMM in terms of how these are priced. Outside of options, there's also structured products, just ways to make it easier for a retail to earn yield or get like exposure to like an ETF like product. So like one very successful structured product is the defyples index. There's basically like one token where you own like a basket of blue chip defy coins like comp, Uni, Avey, MKR and others. And then you also have,

You can also have structured products, like leverage products. So like 2X Bitcoin and 2X each products where you don't have to go on compound and like manage your margin accounts. You can also have inverse tokens. So if you look at like all the top most widely traded products in traditional finance on like NASDAQ and New York Stock Exchange, like a lot of them are structured products like QQQSPY and others. And I think that space is going to continue to grow in defy. I very much agree on the index products for instance I think it's super exciting and it's a way for people that are less immersed in the space to get exposure to what's going on like if you you know you maybe have some bitcoin you maybe have some eat but then like getting on to like the crazy world of all of these various tokens and coins can be really hard and then if you can just take exposure to then it like it's kind of the same dynamic that most people have with the stock market, right, where they don't necessarily care about stock picking or sort of what they want to invest in. They just want to sort of have exposure to the whole thing. And that is really, really

cool to have that for the token economy as well. Like you mentioned, like B5Pools Index, they've been growing really, really nicely. And they also, for instance, have like really cool charts on incentivized versus an incentivized supply of like users. So they track and you can see like the share of un-incentivized supply, like really taking over time. So they started out with like 90% incentivized where people get tokens to be part of the system, right? And then eventually it turns into all-organic, which is really cool to see. All right. So one thing I want to ask about, this is maybe less about on-chain metrics and just sort of where all this is headed.

but I did see this tweet by Chow Wang, formerly of Masari, and he said, the final form of the most interesting crypto apps will be those lying at the intersection of finance, gaming, social networking, and community engagement. There will no longer be any dichotomy between these verticals. Every app will be nothing and everything at once. I wondered what you thought of that statement. And if you even could think of any examples. It sounds super interesting to me, but I was like, what does that even look like? And I didn't even know if it was just something that sounded cool or if other people thought there was something to it. I think it sounds very buzzwordy and something that could get a lot of retains, but I can't really

think of an app. Or maybe it's just way too early to think of new use cases enabled by all these different trends and lie at the intersection of all these trends. Project, what's your take? I guess I kind of agree, but I think that there's definitely like something very deep to the fact that you can sort of program scarcity and value into sort of any type of application. And obviously, I guess, furthermore, there's been this like metaverse word that suddenly is everywhere because Zuckerberg mentioned it and whatnot. And I think it like seems likely that sort of NFTs will play a role in like a more internet. kind of native world and ownership around that. And then obviously the tradeability of these things are kind of inherent in what's

happening on the blockchain. So I think sort of, yes, there's there's a high probability that some of this stuff will sort of meet in ways that it couldn't and wouldn't previously. But I guess also like this, you know, you need to build a nice experience for users and do something novel that people actually care about. And that's kind of, yeah, not trivial and it can take a long time. And I don't think it's going to change everything overnight. Yeah, the only example that I could think of that sort of seemed, you know, to be a description

or to be an example of this description was Axi Infinity. So obviously, at its core, it's a game. But then because the axes are scarce, now, you know, there are these teams that are loading out. They're axes for people that want to get in. And so in that regard, that is, you know, these elements of social networking and community engagement. I guess Axi Infinity maybe is still missing the finance piece, although I guess you could say like later earned or earned or just the fact that you earn money from it is finance. So I don't know. Anyway, that was like the only example I could think of.

But all right. So now let's talk about Ethereum because that's kind of where, you know, most of this activity is happening. And obviously we did talk about how EIP-159 was this big change that happened on Ethereum. And so for people who may have missed the episodes I did on EIP-159 and on ETH as ultrasound money, so essentially now with this London hard fork upgrade, the transaction fees are now broken out into base fees for transactions, which end up getting burned, and then priority fees, which are tips that go to the miners. So in this first week after the London Hard Fork, $100 million worth of Eath was

burned. And Glass-Dode reports that that's about 35% of the issuance. So I'm curious to hear Richard and Frederick, what were your expectations with this upgrade and how has the reality compared? Yeah, 1559 solves the big problem. Like, the big question that people always ask is, like, how does ETH capture value. And like now with 1559, like, ETH directly captures value from all the economic activity that are happening on chain. So you can actually now apply, you know, real world, like traditional finance, like valuation models to Ethereum based on fees and like how much transaction volume economic, economic activity is happening. I actually just created a Dune dashboard yesterday looking at our portfolio companies and like how much they contribute to

like ETH being burned. It's interesting that. OpenC's is leading by far. They've burned over 4,600 ETH since 1559 launched, which is about $13 million, I think. $14.000. So OpenC is like one of the largest, like, sources of revenue for Ethereum. Yeah. It's been really cool to see it play out.

And I think also it's kind of an important data point in the evolution of Ethereum in general. like it's only so often that there's actually an hard work and throughout that these like relatively radical changes can be done. I guess like a lot of Bitcoin folks will think that this is a really bad thing, but sort of given the trajectory and social contract where this project is headed, I think it's encouraging to see that something like this can actually be figured out in an open way and decided upon, even though it's kind of controversial, and then actually implemented pretty smoothly. So that's also, I think, a big takeaway,

and maybe also a lot of why the price action beyond course, new solutions, but the fact that this project can actually coordinate and upgrade itself over time. Yeah, one thing I will say is about how OpenC is the top burner of EVE since the upgrade. I was looking at the times when the net issuance on Ethereum turned negative in this past week. And it was basically during NFT drops. And it's funny because in one of the episodes they recorded, like I hadn't even heard of one of the NFT.

Well, actually, so for the research for this episode, I actually hadn't heard of any of these until having to do research for these episodes. One was called COVID punks. The other was art blocks. The last one was Fluff World NFTs. And it's like digital rabbits. but the point is that it's so similar to the ICO craze when during the ICOs the usage on the blockchain would be so congested that all these transactions were failing and like even if you had some other transaction that you were trying to do that was not even related to the ICO it wouldn't

go through and during that time you know it was just that Ethereum wasn't really usable but here it is now that, so I'm not sure how it's affecting usage, but regardless, like, the demand for ETH at that moment for usage of these, this base on these Ethereum blocks, is helping then add value to ETH by making the net issuance negative. So, so at least, you know, I agree that EIP-1559 is like a change that should be beneficial to the Ethereum price in that regard. So one other thing I want to ask about was, you know, oftentimes with Bitcoin when looking on-chain metrics, you can kind of see when Bitcoin is moving to offline cold wallets. And this is often a proxy for like institutions or whales that are buying Bitcoin, basically.

And the blocks Frank Chaparro recently reported that institutions are demanding ETH. And it's actually causing firms like NIDIG and Fidelity to expand into ETH. And as we know in Coinbase's second quarter, ETH trading volumes did top Bitcoin volumes for the first time. So Frank reported that his sources were saying that the reason these institutions are having to expand into ETH is, or wanting to expand into ETH is that they're looking for yield. So I wondered, does on-chain activity show that ETH is moving to offline cold wallets? Or what are you seeing in that regard?

I'm not sure about the offline cold wallets, but like one metric that we track internally at one confirmation is a number of unique addresses that hold more than zero, that hold more than one Eath. So it's kind of a proxy for like how many users believe in ETH as a digital currency and are in our holding. Like that metric has been like going up into the right over like the past year. So more so than Bitcoin. Like the growth rate is much more pronounced than Bitcoin. So that does support the narrative that there's, like, more people, whether or not it's institutions or retail that are buying EVE. Okay. Yeah. I guess like the one thing is obviously ETH is so much cheaper than Bitcoin. So the fact that it slowed down for Bitcoin, but not ETH, probably. I don't know. So for Bitcoin, we actually track zero point zero. So like the dollar value is like still like roughly. Oh, wow.

You can't, you can't compare like one Eth to like one. Right. Oh, okay. So even when you make that comparison, then. the accumulation of eth is still... Yeah, if you take roughly the same dollar value of eth and Bitcoin, the accumulation of ETH is growing at a faster pace than Bitcoin. Oh, wow. Oh, interesting. And I guess also in one way, there's a difference here where... So the best thing for Bitcoin is kind of if just the supply disappears, right, then no one sort of touches their Bitcoin, if you will.

And then that's just like their scarcity. But kind of Ethereum also want to be used. it's a computer, right, that has a bunch of applications that people, it's a good thing if they use it. So I think it's, in one way, of course, it's good if people sort of invest and believe in the

currency, but you also, sort of, if we didn't have all of this like on-chain activity that we've been talking about now for the last hour, that would be really bad, right? You want addresses to engage and use these protocols and spend their eat on gas

and be engaged with the system as well. And I think that's just as important as how many are holding it. And I think, I guess, so sort of those data points together is what really tells you it's like there's interesting that going on with it. Right. Because then, if at least for two of the three characteristics of money is displaying those characteristics, one would be as a store value and the other is as a medium of exchange. So, all right, so now let's, we're running out of time. So let's touch on layer two's, which came up earlier.

What are you seeing in terms of the layer two race? I did happen to look at a website called L2B and the top two projects by value locked or DYDX and loopering, both of which use ZK roll-up technology. Fourth is optimism, which uses optimistic roll-ups. after that the value locked was kind of a steep drop. So I just was curious, like, what are you guys seeing in terms of metrics when it comes to layer twos? Where do you think that competition is going?

Yeah, optimistic willups are just around the corner. Right now, both arbitram and optimism have, like, kind of private, like, quote-unquote soft launches so, like, developers can move their daps over, although there's still, like, trading limits just to, like, work out the bugs. So, like, it hasn't gotten its, like, full user activity. Like, once those launch, then there's going to be a lot of activity on layer two, a lot of volume, as well as, like, a lot of money that's, like, moving between layer one and layer two. And, like, there's actually a project called a Hop Exchange that's making, creating, like, a fast,

a nice UX bridge between layer one and layer two and, like, between layer two and layer two in a non-custodial way. because kind of the current solutions are all relying on multi-sigs, but those are pretty insecure. Yeah. So for optimism, for instance, the number of transactions has been trending upwards. It's currently like 30,000 a day. But I guess that's like still not that much, actually. It seems like it's still, even though these things are kind of live,

it's still too early to judge if they're actually getting. adoption or like they they need to actually fully release it and then you need to look at the metrics and see are people actually embracing this and I think that's going to be one of the key questions for the rest of this year to understand what what that activity actually looks like on the chain and not just like these concepts of how we can scale this but obviously loopering has been around for a long time and is doing really well as far as I can see. Yeah.

And I did also see 0X labs reported that although the, so it, because zero X, I guess is on Polygon in addition to on Ethereum. And it said that the Polygon transaction count exceeds the one on Ethereum. But it said the average trade size on Polygon is about $750. Well, sorry, this was back in July. So this may be old data. But so the average trade size on Polygon was $750, but on Ethereum, it was $19,000. So I wonder, you know, do you think we are seeing that the layer twos are able to kind of

draw in a different user and enable new behaviors that are sort of prohibited due to the cost of gas on Ethereum? Yeah, absolutely. Like that supports the thesis that like layer twos and side chains are good for a low dollar value high throughput use cases. if like transaction count is so high, but like the average dollar value being transacted is like also low. Okay. And at the moment, do you feel like there's any layer two that you kind of would put your money on? Well, Polygon isn't quite a layer two. It's the side chain. But Polygon is like one that's like probably the only layer two slash side chain that's like has like a decent amount of traction.

I think, I forgot was a curve of a one of the blue chip D5 projects actually has like more TV. on Polygon than layer one. So there is actually like real usage on Polygon. Okay. As for layer two, I think loop ring is like the most time tested. If you wanted to do trades, it's been battle tested. And they've done a couple of billions at least in volume, in trading volume. So yeah.

All right. So we'll just have to see how that plays out. earlier this year there was a lot of hand-wringing about competitors like Binance Smart Chain and Solana, you know, hand-wringing amongst the Ethereum set. So what would you say the metrics show in terms of that? Does Ethereum still need to worry about losing market share to these other chains? With Binance Smart Chain, like a lot of the use cases were around like the D-Gen yield farming. So it kind of like Ethereum D-Fi summer back in like July, August.

And like when that cooled down and like all that activity just like shifted over to Binan's, smart chain. So it's a lot of like short-term trading activity, but like I haven't really seen any long-term serious projects being built on finance smart chain. I think a big reason is like credible neutrality is because if the thesis is that institutions are going to adopt blockchain tech, cryptocurrencies and meaningful way, they want to do on a credible neutral platform, like Ethereum, not like CZ or Binus's pet project, which is why like Ethereum has that advantage for, more institutional adoption of defy. So now, but a question for you because you may have seen that on Twitter the week that we are

recording this, I released some clips of my last show in which Justin Drake of the Ethereum Foundation, you know, was saying things about Bitcoin. And I saw a lot of people, you know, discussing some of the things he said, like, you know, he was bringing up whether or not Bitcoin could safely transition to a model in which it was being secured simply by transaction fees. But he also said that he thought Ethereum was Satoshi's vision. So one thing is that I noticed that a lot of Bitcoiners were saying to me that they thought that, you know, Ethereum was basically centralized and even things like they thought

that it was a security. But the SEC did already come out and say that it wasn't a security. So I'm not sure why they were saying that. but I think they were just trying to apply it like they think it's centralized. So what's the difference between why, you know, you, the way that you phrased it, you seem to think that Ethereum is not, even though it has like an identifiable creator, whereas you think Binance Smart Chain might be? Well, Binance Smart Chain has only 21 validators and they're all run by Binance.

And also I think a major component of decentralization is like how easy it is for anyone to spin up their own node. And like for Binance smart chain, because they increased the blocks limit so high, you need to have like a really dedicated hardware setup in order to run a Binance smart chain node in order to sync to the latest block. Whereas for Ethereum, you could even run an Ethereum node on a Raspberry Pi just because the sync is a lot more friendly for like retail like hardware. And too, you mentioned also like sort of.

And I think that I guess there's a little bit of a difference there where Binance Smart chain, so anyone can in theory kind of pretty easily move Ethereum stuff over while Solana is like a whole different set up and stack and programming language and all that. And that means that like they're kind of taking a harder route, but it also probably makes them more resilient, right? And then like they're building up an ecosystem more from the ground up, which I think makes them like a more potentially like powerful, longer term competition to Ethereum. And I think that's like just super healthy in that there's something else that also pushing it

and trying to make from a slightly different version of like the future of finance in parallel and then sort of the pressure is on on Ethereum to develop and so realize its solution as soon as possible. And do you think, so now we're kind of like talking about the merge, which is when all the activity on Ethereum 1.0 actually finally shifts over to the so-called beacon chain on Ethereum 2. So how do you think that's going to go? And do you think Ethereum, you know, like I said earlier, does it still need to worry about losing market share to chains like Solana? Probably, hopefully, they should always sort of worry about that. I think it's like kind of any ecosystem sort of is healthy if there's some competition going on. So I think that if sort of the Ethereum developers and the Ethereum ecosystem just thinks that they've sort of gotten to this unbeatable position,

that's probably not a healthy thing for that project. But are you seeing anything on chain that makes you think, you know, this is, happening? Yeah, so currently no, I'd say it's like still too early. And these new systems, even though they have like project building on them and there are some users, it still seems like it's very early. And the key question is like, can they actually obtain sort of other traffic, I think, or like other usage that's not just like directly sort of forks or kind of copies of of what's happening on Ethereum, but something that's actually theirs

and like organically or like by them driven. And then that sort of can get momentum. And then eventually maybe someone will sort of move over. But I think it's still too early to tell. It feels like maybe like Ethereum, 2015, 16, kind of in the face of development where it's still just very experimental what's being built. It seems like they're sort of doing something interesting in my mind.

All right. So, yeah, Richard, did you want to add anything about this transition to Ethereum 2.0? Proof of steak has been like on the roadmap for like many, many years. And it's good that it's like just around the corner and it's like finally about to launch. Okay. All right. So to wrap up, why don't we each, why don't you each summarize where you think the market will go for the rest of the year when it comes to ETH, DFI and NFTs? as always predictions are really hard in crypto but i think defy has to establish itself as something that's here to stay and it might grow you know might double in activity or might not but i think it's undeniably here at a really solid level then nfts i think are likely to cool off um somewhat but with a lot of interesting activity and attention established, that's going to stay there and be very interesting over time.

And I guess for E, all of this activity is great. And EIP 1.559 is great. So I think in general, I don't see any reason why it should cool up. Yeah, I would agree with all those points. And I guess in general, with 1559, now Ethereum is like this kind of an index. expect on like all the economic activity that's happening. So whether we have another defy somewhere and like suddenly like ETH is a lot of ETH is being burned from like transaction volume or if you have like all these avatar projects that are being dropped and like people are paying ridiculous

amounts of gas and like ETH is also capturing value from that. So it's a good way for ETH to capture value from like economic activity regardless of where it comes from. All right. Great. So where can people learn more about each of you, your respective companies, and also different on-chain metrics that they might be interested in for ETH, D-Fi, and NFTs? So, yeah, we're at June.xyc and June Analytics on Twitter. And we have a few thousand dashboards out there that you can look at. And I'm at Haga, H, A-G-A, E-T-C on Twitter. It's not actually Ethereum Classic reference, it's et cetera. but I took that much before ETC was a thing.

Yeah, and one of our top creators is Richard. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm top creator on June, so I'm RChane 8 on Dune if you want to search for all my Dune dashboards and also Richard Chan 39 on Twitter. Okay, perfect. All right, well, thank you both so much for coming on Unchained. Thank you. It's a pleasure.

Thanks, Laura. Thanks so much for joining us today to learn more about Frederick. and Richard and also doing analytics, I want confirmation. Plus also all the different on-chain metrics you might be interested in, check out the show notes for this episode. Unchained, it's produced by me, Laura Shin, with help from Anthony Yoon, Daniel Ness, and Mark Murdoch. Thanks for listening.