Unchained - The Chopping Block: 2021 in Crypto: The Biggest Winners, Biggest Losers, and Best Memes - Ep.303

Episode Date: December 30, 2021

Welcome to the inaugural episode of The Chopping Block, a new show on Unchained hosted by Haseeb Qureshi, Robert Leshner, Tom Schmidt, and Tarun Chitra, in which they discuss the latest juicy topics i...n crypto. This week, the four crypto heavyweights take a look back at 2021. Show topics: Biggest winners and losers Best mechanism  Biggest surprise Best meme Predictions for 2022   Without revealing too much, Haseeb, Robert, Tom, and Tarun cover a lot of ground, diving into “esoteric” subjects like Luna tokenomics, the Tezos NFT marketplace HEN, the origins of web3, the Grayscale arbitrage opportunity, OHM, Convex Finance, single-basis point liquidity pools on Uniswap, and Empty Set Dollar. They also tackle more popular topics like BTC, Dogecoin, NFT marketplaces, L1s, and more.    Episode Links   Hosts Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital https://twitter.com/hosseeb Tom Schmidt, general partner at Dragonfly Capital https://twitter.com/tomhschmidt Robert Leshner, managing partner at Robot Ventures https://twitter.com/rleshner Tarun Chitra, managing partner at Robot Ventures https://twitter.com/tarunchitra    Biggest Winners: L1 performance in 2021: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/128603/in-2021-l1-blockchains-took-the-spotlight-thanks-to-defi  Coinbase IPO: https://unchainedpodcast.com/is-coinbase-stock-a-good-buy-this-analyst-says-yes/  Solana: https://www.notboring.co/p/solana-summer  OpenSea: https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/opensea  Lido: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/is-lido-undervalued  Dogecoin: https://docsend.com/view/vutymtgqjf99yrpu  Solana early investors:  ​https://www.theinformation.com/articles/solana-generates-1-billion-in-returns-for-early-backers    Mechanisms Uniswap V3: https://uniswap.org/blog/launch-uniswap-v3   Convex Finance (+ Curve): https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/11/11/curve-wars-heat-up-emergency-dao-invoked-after-clear-governance-attack/  OHM: https://www.coingecko.com/buzz/what-is-olympusdao-and-how-does-it-work  ESD: https://medium.com/@lewisfreiberg/empty-set-dollar-esd-a0abbfc5ecdb     Biggest Losers: Grayscale: https://dcresearch.medium.com/interpreting-grayscale-premiums-gbtc-ethe-a7261dd8cfca  Bitcoin: https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/ HEN: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/news+/126688/tezos-art-marketplace-hen  EOS: https://cryptonews.com/news/eos-down-as-community-forks-out-blockone.htm    Biggest Surprises Uniswap pool analytics:https://info.uniswap.org/#/pools  NFTs: https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/11/22325054/beeple-christies-nft-sale-cost-everydays-69-million + https://decrypt.co/89060/bored-ape-yacht-club-nfts-flip-cryptopunks-floor-price-in-ethereum  Luna: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/11/10/terra-passes-highly-anticipated-proposal-to-burn-nearly-89m-luna/    Best Memes Dog coins: https://nypost.com/2021/12/27/santa-floki-cryptocurrency-surges-3500-after-elon-musk-tweet/   SBF shoes: https://twitter.com/zackseward/status/1468641558346059777  Grimes tweet: https://twitter.com/grimezsz/status/1449528005966000129  Web3: https://www.coindesk.com/learn/what-is-web-3-and-why-is-everyone-talking-about-it/    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Hi, all, Laura here. We're trying something new at Unchained. We'll be doing live streams every other week of a new show called The Chopping Block, a conversation between four crypto investors, Haseeb Qureshi and Tom Schmidt, managing partners at Dragonfly Capital, and Robert Lashner and Turin, managing partners at Robot Ventures. In each episode, Haseeb, Tom, Robert, and Turun will discuss recent events in crypto. We will also release these conversations. We will also release these conversations. on the podcast so you can always tune in later, but the live streams will be the earliest you can catch the shows, and in general, the videos will have all the visual content, whereas the podcasts will, obviously, only be audio. I've already watched a few of their discussions and they're fun. Plus, they give you a wealth of insight into the many happenings in the space. I just wanted to pop in here to explain why, number one, there's a live stream going on, and number two, why I am not a part of it. So with that done, now I will turn it over to Hasib. Thanks, Laura. And thanks for chaperoning and making sure that we're behaving ourselves.
Starting point is 00:01:13 So without further ado, without further ado, let's kick off the show. So hey, everybody, welcome to the chopping block. Every couple weeks, the four of us get together and we give an industry insider's perspective on the crypto topics of the day. So quick round of intros. I'll show it with Tom. Tom is the Defy Maven and the Master of Memes. Whoa, did you just, do you just jiggle the lights? No, there's a little power surge over here. So sorry about that.
Starting point is 00:01:40 Oh, wow. You say his name and, you know, the defy. Yeah, yeah. That was intentional. Yeah, yeah. You got your own light show going on over there. Then we've got Robert, Cryptoconisur, and Captain of Compound. Robert is also, for whatever reason, he's hanging out in a little girl's bedroom
Starting point is 00:01:56 for reasons that he cannot fully explain. It's where I podcast. What's that? It's where I podcast from. It's, ah, got it, got it got. That's your studio. That's your studio. And then we've got Tarun, the Geek of Brain, and Grand Puba at Gauntlet.
Starting point is 00:02:13 And lastly, there is myself, Haseeb. I am chief hypeman at Dragonfly. So the four of us are early stage investors in crypto. But I want to caveat that nothing we say here is investment advice or legal advice or even life advice. So taking everything you hear, here with a grain of salt because it's crypto and you should do your own research. How is everybody doing today? Also, Tom, you just got back from Taiwan. How is it being back in America after spending all of COVID in Taiwan? Yeah, it's been mixed, I would say. I obviously like the COVID situation a bit
Starting point is 00:02:45 better in Taiwan, but it's nice being back and seeing my friends and family and eating Mexican food. And I'm feeling it's not my office, but I got the very patriotic poster in the background. So people always ask me about that. It's Bruce Springsteen. So anyway, it's good to be back. Nice, nice. And overall verdict on Taiwan. Taiwan number one.
Starting point is 00:03:08 You know, it's number one for a reason. Yeah, it's awesome. There's a great crypto scene there. And it's really blossoming. A lot of cool new projects coming out and a lot of great entrepreneurs. And people are just really great. You know, food is amazing. It's beautiful.
Starting point is 00:03:20 I have nothing but good things to say. I really miss Taiwan. I'm hopefully going to go back next year as well. And overall, guys, has been your holidays. Well, New Year's is in two days, and I'm about to get away for a very short R&R. And so, you know, we'll see soon. But, you know, happy New Year to everybody in advance. Nice.
Starting point is 00:03:42 Everyone I know has COVID. So I'm in, I'm in like a box. I am honestly, so I could not get a booster because all of the, all of the places that give booster shots here are super. backed up. So I am kind of terrified of Omicron. I actually took flight a few days ago and I did not get sick, I think. Maybe I'm asymptomatic. But I'm, I'm just like at this point, I think so many people I know have Omicron or recently got Omicron that it just feels me like everybody is going to get this thing. It's just like going to be the global vaccine. This is going to be how it ends. It's basically never again. It might well be. It might well be. That's how it seems right now.
Starting point is 00:04:22 Here's my dark contrarian take on COVID, and then we can go straight into the crypto stuff. I think that COVID in a twisted way is actually pro-crypto. And it goes to the argument that I think a lot of people are losing faith in government, governments based on the response or misre response to COVID in general. And distrust in governments equals a search for alternate approaches, whether it's monetary systems or government forms of, you know, communication and consensus. And I think long-term, this will be one, you know, major, you know, footnote in the history of why crypto succeeded. I could see that. I remember early when COVID first started being, it was really not obvious
Starting point is 00:05:13 at that time how COVID was going to affect crypto. And in retrospect, I feel like maybe it should of it should have been obvious that crypto, like, everybody being at home and just being really antsy and bored and going half crazy was going to cost a lot of, it was going to be very bullish for everything going on in crypto. But I totally agree with you that in retrospect, so many of the trends that COVID kicked off have been really, really good for the adoption and the growth of the crypto industry. Yeah. Even just living online, being digital, right? Like the fact that fundraising and team building and like everything that we do now is, happening remotely, like, was not a given, you know, three or four years ago.
Starting point is 00:05:53 Certainly some people were pushing for remote work and remote investment, but people were still, you still, you know, fly to the Bay Area to, like, do all their fundraising grounds. And, like, it was weird to, like, have a remote team. And now that's almost kind of becoming more than norm. Yeah, I mean, you know, you'll, you may, you may always see me to say this on Twitter, but I am so happy that crypto and COVID killed San Francisco. They, like, they did a one-two sucker punch. It was great.
Starting point is 00:06:21 It's true. I mean, we recently did our team offsite for Dragonfly. And it used to be that like 30 to 40% of all of our entrepreneurs were in the Bay Area. And during our offsite, we invited a bunch of our entrepreneurs there. And we're now down to like less than 10% of all of our founders are in the Bay. And I just don't know that it's going to come back. So it does feel like the world has fundamentally changed and the allocation of capital has fundamentally changed and I don't think it's going to revert now that all of that intellectual capital,
Starting point is 00:06:55 all of that sort of movement freedom and the inability to extract rents from forcing everybody to be in the same place and pay the same landlords and pay the same coffee shops and pay the same taxes, all that is kind of gone now. And so many, I mean, even out of New York, like I just heard that there's a lot of folks leaving New York now and going to Miami for similar allegiance. People have realized, like, okay, the bit license and the New York State tax is just like so onerous. As long as we have the crypto people together, we don't really need all the other stuff that is bundled with living in New York. Have you been to Miami and found anyone who isn't an investor in crypto?
Starting point is 00:07:34 That's the, that's the, that's the weird Waldo. That's true. The office is in New York. They have an office in Soho. Yeah. I thought they got up. There's like 30 people in that office. No, he's traveling a lot, but he might be the exception.
Starting point is 00:07:54 What I'm saying is that maybe like the investor or like the CEO is moving to Miami, but the teams are not. I feel like that is the trend. It's not like, oh, like Austin and Miami are like killing San Francisco in New York. It's like no, like, you know, one founder's in the bay and then there's like a, you know, Englead in New York and then they have a designer in Europe and then they have like a data person in Asia and it's kind of like, yeah, like that's, that's, like, that's, that's, That's the sort of profile of team that I see these days.
Starting point is 00:08:18 Not like everybody's in Miami, Miami's the new San Francisco. Yeah, no, that sounds right. It does, I mean, Miami just has such a different vibe than either New York or San Francisco. Like, you import people into Miami. You don't hire people from Miami, generally speaking, if you're a tech founder. Hot take I will have is that I think magically failed because they were based outside of Miami. Burn. Just, uh, just, uh,
Starting point is 00:08:46 I don't know enough about magically to be able to weigh in there, but okay, fair enough. All right. So let's get into the meat of it, guys. So I wanted to take this, get a semi-inogural episode to look back on all the craziness has happened this year because as we've been talking about, it's been a totally bizarre and wild 2021. So I wanted to look back at biggest wins, biggest losses, biggest lessons from 2021. So without further ado, let's get into it.
Starting point is 00:09:12 The way we're going to do this is we're going to announce the particular. topic slash competitions like biggest winner, biggest loser, et cetera. And we're going to each go around and explain our choice. A lot of people in the audience might not know what we're even talking about. So explain our choice in just a few sentences. And then we'll go around and each share. So we'll start with biggest winner. Who wants to go first?
Starting point is 00:09:36 Biggest winner of 2021. I'll go first. I think when we were doing your reflection for this, I think one thing that's always difficult in crypto is to not like, you know, just choose like, okay, who, like, what asset went up the most in price and what went down the most in price? Because that's obviously like a part of it. But it's also part of the story of like product adoption, right? And like what actually success looks like for some of these, these product and these protocols. And so for me, biggest winner in, in 2021 was
Starting point is 00:10:03 alternative L1s or different smart contract platforms to Ethereum. So obviously people are super excited about Solana and Avalanche and Luna and those really seem to be doing well in the market, but also just in terms of developer adoption. But I even think about stuff like BSC, which kind of kicked off the year as sort of this whole like, you know, alternative EVM chain sort of mania kicked off or Polygon or even Phantom. Or even increasingly like we see, you know, different exchanges developing their own chains and things like that. And so I think, you know, 2020 was, I think all about Ethereum and DFI summer and everything was happening on Ethereum. And this year, obviously stuff was happening on Ethereum, but increasingly it was happening on alternative L1s. And so that's kind of been the story in my mind over the past year or so. It's just been
Starting point is 00:10:48 increasing adoption and traction. And also, you know, Price has been part of the story for these other smart contract platforms. That's a good point. I think you covered a lot of ground there actually in all the ones. I imagine. There's some, no, there's just some overlap, I think, in some other people's answers too. Turin, Robert, do you guys want to go next? I'll go next. I think the biggest winner is actually publicly traded crypto things. I think there's two great examples of things that really did not exist in the public eye a year ago, but came into the public eye this year. So Coinbase and Micro Strategy, I think both have come to the forefront as publicly traded
Starting point is 00:11:30 crypto companies that in their own ways are acting as huge, legitimizing factors for the space that are creating a lot of awareness from investors that, weren't as aware of, you know, crypto financial markets previously. But I think those two, in some ways, are the biggest winners and create sort of a winning halo for the rest of the ecosystem. I think they're going to set the groundwork for a lot of public companies to follow. And if you asked me, you know, 12 months ago, are there going to be like lots of public crypto companies?
Starting point is 00:12:02 I would have said, no, not really. They're going to stay private for a really long time. You're going to see a lot of crypto existing truly only in private markets. But if you ask me now at the end of 2021, I think the answer is, yeah, I anticipate next year, the year after the year after there to be a lot more publicly traded on equity exchange, it's not on crypto exchange, publicly traded crypto-based businesses that are real. You know, we had Long Island iced tea blockchain or whatever years ago, but they were all, you know, they were jokes, right? Now we're starting to see like- Ohversot.com was a real business. True.
Starting point is 00:12:38 But I think this is the year that the public equity markets won by having two flag bearers for the asset class. Where do you think that's going to come from? Do you think it's going to be more like existing public companies adopting, you know, crypto like block or square? Or do you think there's going to be companies going public? Do you think we're going to see like spot ETFs? Yeah. I mean, and this also goes to having at least futures based ETFs in public markets. You know, I don't want to include that because I think it's more negative than positive, at least.
Starting point is 00:13:08 a lot of people's minds. But I think we're going to see more exchanges go public over time. There's a lot of really solid, you know, domestic and international exchanges that I think have an opportunity to go public over the next two years. I think we're going to start seeing custodians going public over the next two years. And I think we're just going to see a lot of crypto-native businesses, you know, becoming publicly traded instead of existing publicly traded things adopting crypto. Although Visa was a big, you know, player this year that's already like an extremely large,
Starting point is 00:13:38 well-known publicly traded company that very seriously has been going into crypto. Obviously, Facebook slash meta has been dabbling for years and years and years, but never really went live. And so, you know, I think we're going to see a lot more crypto-native businesses go public over the next two years. Yeah, I think in very Robert fashion, it's like you're the only one advocating for the tradfi companies. The rest of us are all picking like random meme coins.
Starting point is 00:14:04 To Roon, what was your pick? Yeah, so I didn't have one pick. I wanted to actually give like a category, kind of three things that broadly were like the biggest winners in their category and like they're not comparable in some sense. But I guess I have a little, a tiny different take on the L1 season. I actually think that there's this class of L1s that did do well and there's a whole slew of ones that were quite disappointed.
Starting point is 00:14:34 relative to what they were billed as in 2017 and 18 and maybe in 19. So I think the ones that really stood out, the interesting thing to me was, you know, the layer one with the hardest developer onboarding process, period, you know, really one, which is Solana. I think, you know, obviously, Avax and Luna had crazy good times too. But Salana was really out of the dark. I mean, in my mind,
Starting point is 00:15:04 it was always extremely hard to write smart contracts for them, you know, but they sort of willed their way into kind of, you know, winning the All-L-1 War. The other two I want to mention were, of course, OpenC, I mean, they obviously had kind of this record-breaking year. Maybe they'll be, you know, I know it's not exactly Roberts Chadfai public company pick, but they could be very easily, in my mind, you know, one of these public company. picks and you know, you're not successful. I feel like at an equity business in crypto, if you don't have tons of haters and the fact that they have been vampire attack should already tell you that. Vampire attack refers to basically people dropping a token to your users
Starting point is 00:15:52 to try to get them to move to a new platform. And the last one I wanted to say was Wido. So staking derivatives were, you know, a theoretical murmur in in in in in 2019 you know there are some academic papers written 2020 but in 2021 we got a ridiculous percentage of Ethereum and now Solana in different staking derivatives and I think that is going to be a really big market over the next five to 10 years nice those are great choices well so I'll wrap things up on biggest winner so my I was a little too non-committal And so I gave my answer as a tie between Dogecoin as being one of the biggest winners.
Starting point is 00:16:37 I don't think originally I had Elon Musk and then I was like, well, he's won on too many other things. So I'll just put Dogecoin instead as being the biggest winner in his stead. And I mean, Dogecoin kind of came out of almost nowhere. I guess it's always been around. It's always kind of been a thing. But like just the absolute staggering levels of demand and excitement around Dogecoin just blew my mind. and probably like the one breakout crypto story of the year. If there's one from a mainstream perspective, it's probably Dogecoin, which is bizarre to say,
Starting point is 00:17:09 because of course it's not the largest by market cap, but it does feel like it was the, like the word cloud of crypto this year. I feel like Dogecoin was the biggest. And then second on winners for the year, I put Kyle Simani. So not everyone might know who Calamani is, but he is one of the co-founders and managing partners of multi-coin capital, which led the seed round and led the Series A of Solana. And so he is now a very, very wealthy man. I understand that he now does all of his conference call-ins from his, from his Lamborghini.
Starting point is 00:17:44 And he's just, like, it's funny because one of the things I'm going to talk about later is about Eos. And he was somebody who the entire crypto community, not the entire, but many people in the community basically shit on in 2018 and 2019, particularly for his call on EOS, in claiming that he thought EOS is going to be really successful. It was going to be the super high performance letter one. It was going to make these tradeoffs around being less decentralized in order to get better performance. And Eos didn't really become that. But he took a bet on Salana saying like, no, no, no, okay, maybe Eos wasn't it, but Solana is going to be it. And it turned out he absolutely nailed it. And Solana has been a smashing success. And kudos to him for.
Starting point is 00:18:27 for sticking it out and believing in his thesis. So, yeah, everyone needs to redemption arc. So, yeah, absolutely. Yeah, pound for pound, by far the most successful investor of 2021. I mean, I heard someone claim that the Solano seed round is the highest IRA investment in venture history. I don't know if I haven't checked that number, but it could very well be. Yeah, that sounds right.
Starting point is 00:18:56 That sounds right. Okay, so that's biggest winner. Let's move on. Next up, we have best mechanism. So this was a, this was requested by Turun. And so I thought, all right, why not? Let's throw it on their best mechanism. Tarun, given that it's your category, why don't you take it away? For sure. Yeah. So I think, you know, there was a very weird website that showed up in in about March or April, late March, early April 2020, which used a lot of Greek language. and linguistic, loose-linguistic technique. And, you know, it was completely written about the temples in Greece and, you know, different types of, different types of goddesses and gods were associated to the pieces of this protocol. But this protocol turned out, in spite of the fact that the docs were kind of impossible to read, and in spite of the fact that it seemed like it was a scam, it turned out to be one of the most successful
Starting point is 00:19:59 and most copied and forked smart contracts on Ethereum-based chains. A sort of rough, quick analysis that I did showed Unisop v2 is the most copied contract, most forked and redeployed contract. And then Synthetics Minter contract is number two. Now, I'm ignoring things like Open Zeppelin's like Safe Math and stuff,
Starting point is 00:20:23 because those get in line and there's all sorts of technical details. This is more for fully deployed contracts. And number three is, oh, which is this protocol. And it really took me at least three or four months to wrap my head around why this thing was able to grow and get forked so much. You can basically think of it as, you know,
Starting point is 00:20:44 our first step towards a system where a protocol manages its own liquidity by issuing like instruments to people. and it was a smashing success. I mean, there have been, you know, probably tens of billions of dollars in the own contracts on multiple chains. And so I think they deserve best mechanism. I'm working on trying to analyze it formally because I think there is something a lot deeper there that, like, is a good lesson for people. Because, you know, I think there are a lot of other mechanisms that are extremely, you know, you would think, like, fix interest.
Starting point is 00:21:22 straight loans that maybe would like catch on but none of them have been able to and part of it has to do with sort of some of the things that are hidden within home. It's fascinating. Sounds like a detective novel. Yes. Yes. I, of course, HFSP and didn't own any. There is a secret that we're going.
Starting point is 00:21:40 That's awesome. I like that. The hiddens of the temple. The hidden secrets of the temple. Yeah. It feels like a Dan Brown. It feels like a Dan Brown novel somewhere in there. I like it.
Starting point is 00:21:51 Okay, I'll go ahead, best mechanism. I chose ESD. So actually, I just looked up the price. That was last year. Well, no, so it was last year, but it collapsed this year and then redefined itself. So it was actually collapsing right on Jan 1 is when it slipped below 90 cents. And so I was like, okay, you know what? I'm going to count that as this year.
Starting point is 00:22:12 And so for those who don't know, ESD stands for METSET dollar. And basically, it's probably beyond the scope of this podcast for me to explain how ESD worked. But suffice it to say, it was absolutely bad shit crazy. It was a stable that is kind of sort of stable only if you squint and really believe in it. And that's, yes, it was not stable at all. But in a way, it was a predecessor, I feel like, to own. And kind of inspired more of the modifications around what a stable coin can be and what it even means to be a stable coin.
Starting point is 00:22:44 Like, for example, the notion that you can call something a stable coin and not have it be worth a dollar, I feel like ESD invented that. And so I think OM owes a big tribute to ESD for the idea of, yo, we can just call this thing a stable even when it's like not stable and not worth a dollar. But it kind of aspires in sub-loose way to be worth a dollar. I thought it was great. And I think it also, a big part of mechanisms in crypto is teaching.
Starting point is 00:23:10 And I feel like ESD was probably one of the most teachable moments of 2021 is teaching people that hoping that something is true is not, sufficient for actually making it true in that mechanism design really matters. So I feel like ESD, I think actually internally at Dragonfly, for us, it was one of these moments where like a lot of people at the firm learned how much mechanism design matters. I, as one of the people at Dragonfly who was into ESD, I will say, I think the spiritual successor to ESD is actually Axi Infinity. Because the lesson here is that if the mechanism sucks, it doesn't matter as long as you get enough people to believe in it, and then you have an amazing war chest that you can use to
Starting point is 00:23:52 build something better down the road. And I don't know if they actually executed super well on it, on the idea, but they did sort of generate this idea that, like, you can sort of hype first and build later. And I think that's honestly kind of like what we're seeing now, like Olympus is now doing like V2, Axi's working, reworking the game. Like, you can sort of build a community and then like get this war chest and then back into something good as opposed to like, you know, kneeling something off the bat and being sort of perfectionist at V1 launch. Well, to be clear, ESD right now, I'm just looking at it, has a $2.6 million market cap. Yes, yes.
Starting point is 00:24:27 I think, I think, you know, there was a concept and there was an idea and there was an execution on the idea, but, you know, the concept is, is what happened. Fair enough. Tom, what's your pick? Best mechanism. I forgot we were doing this category, but I'm going to go ahead and say, you need you three. I feel like Unity V3 was hyped and rumored and people, all these, these sort of ideas floating around or like what it could possibly be.
Starting point is 00:24:54 And I feel like it actually kind of blew everybody's expectations out of the water. There was a lot of fud and a lot of concern and a lot of criticism when I think it first came out. But I think, as always, you could just look at the market and look at the data and see what works and what doesn't work. And just empirically, UniV3 is crushing it. Uniswop is like running away with the Dex market. especially the AMM market. And certainly, you know, there's, there's some concerns around LP profitability.
Starting point is 00:25:20 But I think if anything could sort of, you know, create this amazing ecosystem around Uniswap around, like, what can we do with this new tool? Like the, there's, there's teams that are using the, uh, Unity V3 positions to, um, represent options. So you can get different, or that's like primitive and Brahma that do basically like options type type payoffs, but with, um, LP positions, um, or people adding, you know, automated vault managers. And so I think like this would just continue to pay, you know, dividends down, you
Starting point is 00:25:45 know in future years as we see people, you know, build ecosystems and get really creative on top of a Univ3. In addition to just providing, you know, sort of the bare essentials of being a really great, you know, A&M and providing really deep liquidity on chain. So I think UnityV3, you know, the team really crushed it. And I think we've just seen it like just do extremely well in the market as well. So that's going to be my pick. Solid. And Robert? So I'm going to go with a maybe more controversial, but I think, you know, in my mind the clear winner mechanism designed for 2021, which I think is convex finance. This dovetails with, I think, last year's best mechanism, which is V tokens or locking up tokens to vote in a protocol, which is coming back into Vogue very quickly this year and next year, I'd say. but the two of these go hand in hand really well as a combined mechanism.
Starting point is 00:26:42 So Curve is a very simple trading protocol, and they have a governance token that you can stake for some amount of time to change really like how the liquidity of the different markets evolves. What are the incentives to each market, therefore how large is each market, how liquid is each market? Convex basically takes advantage of this mechanism design. You could say it's cannibalizing it or it's parasitic or it's completely symbiotic or it's completely value accretive to it. But what it does is it allows people to exert more control over Curves ecosystem.
Starting point is 00:27:20 And what's incredible about this is this symbiotic relationship has created a massive amount of value for convex as well as Curve. Convex Today, this is the freak stat, which I don't think people appreciate. Convex today has a higher floating market cap than Curve does as a tool built on top of it, which is wild. And it's been, I think, one of the most successful things at creating an exuberance and, you know, new experimentation from dozens of other protocols that are now playing in this ecosystem, playing in the quote, Curve Wars. through convex, it's starting to integrate with lots of other protocols and interesting ways. I think convex is the number one mechanism of 2021. On the chat, someone thought I said, OMA is number three. I meant OMA is definitely number one in my...
Starting point is 00:28:16 He said Ome is three comma three. That's what he said. Exactly. But I want to give an honorable mention to Roberts point, Abercadabra slash MIM, which is basically doing what Convex did. to many other ecosystems at this point. Okay. Let's move on.
Starting point is 00:28:38 I'm realizing that we're going to have to move a little bit faster to get through all these because we picked a ton. Okay, we're moving on to biggest loser now. Biggest loser of 2021. Tom, go. This is going to be controversial. I have Bitcoin. Bitcoin, I feel like, has really just fallen out of the conversation.
Starting point is 00:28:58 Like new people I talk to in Twitter crypto aren't asking about Bitcoin. new investors aren't asking about Bitcoin from a price action perspective. It has really like just done super poorly. I think, you know, year to date, it's done reasonably well because it started so low. But in a few weeks' time, it will basically be flat year over year. And so I think there's just so much enthusiasm has left from Bitcoin. And it kind of has to like struggle to sort of figure out a narrative to define itself now.
Starting point is 00:29:26 Because I think because now it actually has competition, right? Like for the past 10 years or whatever, everything else was kind of vaporware. nothing else really like you can make promises you could sort of make narratives around things they were working on but Bitcoin was Bitcoin and it had the legacy and it had sort of you know the understanding and now now like and it was sort of talked about this later like there are really comparing compelling alternative narratives to the Bitcoin narrative and there's a lot more just frankly like things to do that are a lot more encompassing than sound money and I think that has kind of sucked a lot of the air out of the room for for you know Bitcoin sales
Starting point is 00:29:58 that's a that's a that's a bold but very reasonable choice bold i only have one tiny question which which had which was down bad more lightning or bitcoin in your mind so this is actually what's weird lightning is actually doing really well i don't know if you looked at like um lightning channel capacity in bitcoin terms but it's gone crazy over like the past six months um so the thing that like I never thought what happened is happening, which is like Bitcoin has not done well and lightning is doing super well. So it's a very strange sort of world that we're living in right now. But yeah. Seems like El Salvador has actually been, and Strike in particular has actually been a big catalyst for that.
Starting point is 00:30:42 Yeah, that's what it seems like. Yeah. Okay. Robert, biggest loser. So this is an esoteric one, but I think the gray scale arbitrage trade, which was at the heart of a lot of activity in the crypto markets in general. It drove huge flows of capital for years and years and years was the biggest loser this year. So to walk people through what happened and why this is important, there used to be a trust called the grayscale Bitcoin trust. And this thing for years traded at a premium to the value of the Bitcoin that it held because there was really no good way for a lot of people to like buy Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:31:21 They weren't going on Coinbase and buying Bitcoin. they were like sitting on their e-trade and they were like, how do I get Bitcoin? Let me buy the only product that's available through my brokerage account, which was like this publicly traded trust. And for that reason, the trust always traded more than the value of the Bitcoin inside. Well, this year, it flipped from a premium to a discount. And now it trades at a fraction of the value of the Bitcoin that it holds. And this thing has like $15 billion of Bitcoin in it.
Starting point is 00:31:53 And so for years, years hedge funds were feasting on this mechanism. They were basically like subscribing, creating new shares of the Bitcoin Trust and then selling it to retail at a premium, taking their money back and doing it again. It drove huge amounts of borrowing demand for Bitcoin and stable coins and all of these different things so that you could do this trade. You know, at the end of the day, it's one of the like the primary causes of like what was a lot of the borrowing demand in the ecosystem. Well, this year it flipped to a negative and it stayed negative for like a real for the entire year that the discount gets worse and worse and worse.
Starting point is 00:32:28 And all of the different traders that were participating in this trade and had been doing so successfully for years all got smoked on this. And it changed, I think, a lot of the flows of the capital markets of crypto in ways that people notice and in ways that people don't notice. But underneath the surface, I think this was the biggest event of 2021 for, you know, the crypto-native institutions. Yeah. notoriously, a lot of BlockFi's business was built on the GBTC trade.
Starting point is 00:32:57 Oh, no majority. Almost their whole business. Right, exactly. When that, when that trade blew up, I mean, thankfully, they've managed to diversify into other sources of revenue, but that was a lot of why they could offer really high rates is that they were able to make it up on the other side through doing the GBTC trade. So nowadays, and it also reflects very much in interest rates, as he pointed out. It's like, you know, the net that you can make on your crypto is just down a lot more when the trade stopped.
Starting point is 00:33:26 Right. When people ask, like, why does crypto do what it does? Like, this is one of the big, you know, drivers of what happened everywhere else in the crypto markets was this trade ending. Yeah. That's a great. That's a great answer. Very inside baseball, but I loved it. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:33:41 Well, hopefully someone listening learned one thing there. Learned one thing that they couldn't trade on. That's exactly what the show is about. telling you things you can't make money on. Well, actually now, you actually can make money on this. So if you're naturally long Bitcoin and you expect that one day, you know, the trust is going to get converted to an ETF, which Grayscale has been like publicly like saying they want to do, you can sell your Bitcoin for, let's say, you know, $46,000. And you can buy Bitcoin for the equivalent of like, you know, $38,000 in this trust. and have more Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:34:20 Wait, is this count that high? Yeah, it's like 20%. Yeah, I mean, I can give you the exact number. It's huge, right? And so you can basically rotate out of physical Bitcoin into trust Bitcoin, and when it becomes an ETF or is more freely, you know, convertible, you'll have more Bitcoin. You know, not many people are doing this.
Starting point is 00:34:40 But not investment advice, but. Not investment advice, obvious. But if you feel like becoming extremely sophisticated on how some of these. like basis trades work, you know, someone's loss to someone else's game. Groovy. Okay, well, my answer is a lot less sophisticated. I said biggest loser this year was EOS slash block one. Eos, I alluded to them earlier as the original darling of multi-coin.
Starting point is 00:35:07 There was Dan Larimer's, you know, kind of, it was his magnum opus, I believe was the way he described it. Unfortunately, Eos being the Solana before Solana, it didn't really quite work. It was super janky. The economics were a complete mess. And it eventually got abandoned by Block 1 in that Block 1 kind of went off to do bullish exchange, which is this big crazy exchange that was capitalized with a bunch of the Bitcoin on EOS's balance sheet. And they just kind of were hanging out.
Starting point is 00:35:35 I don't really know what they were doing. But eventually what happened relatively recently is that so EOS contains in it a perpetual block reward for Block 1 as kind of like a thank you. and a kiss on the cheek from the EOS community that thank you for birthing us, Father. And recently, EOS decided to fork out the blocker ward to Block 1 because they felt that they had been abandoned and that Block 1 was no longer holding up their end of the bargain and instead was off, you know,
Starting point is 00:36:04 doing all this financial engineering with bullish exchange and voice and whatever else they're doing. And so Block 1, to be clear, still very, very rich. They own a crap load of Bitcoin. and worth, I think, like $2 billion or something, some crazy amount of money. But I'd say, biggest loser this year feels to me like Eos,
Starting point is 00:36:22 one of the only Lair 1s that feels like somehow managed to avoid all of the lift on layer ones this year. I have a very esoteric one, so I apologize. Please. Perfect form. The number two NFT platform in March 2021, what do you think it was? After OpenSgare Foundation.
Starting point is 00:36:44 Number two. volume. Nifty Gateway. Oh, Nifty Gateway. There was Nifty Gateway, but there was actually in, Nifty had like the big bump in like April, May. I think like in March it was open sea and then Henn, which was this open sea on TESOS. It was 98% of like TESO's activity for like a couple days. But the interesting thing about Henn was it attracted a completely different type of artists than you had in Ethereum. So Hen was really focused on generative art and on-chain art. So the, you know, the NFT would change itself every time it got transferred or there'd be something, you know, kind of more game-like.
Starting point is 00:37:28 And they were really at the vanguard of this. And then their founder, Rage Quit earlier this summer and, like, abandoned all these artists and, like, a lot of money that was owed was, like, stuck in the contracts. And, like, it was a huge nightmare. And so now it's like sort of being like revived by the community. But it was kind of a big blowup for the generative art world. And so, you know, I think actually one of the catalysts for moving to like Solana and Maddoch for a lot of NFTs was actually Hen dying. Because Hen was really, really a big, big source of alternative to NFT volume. That is a very, it's a very esoteric one.
Starting point is 00:38:12 Yeah, that is very esoteric. But Hen is coming back a lot, right? I heard that the volumes are actually quite good now. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The community is trying to take the brand back, for sure. I mean, like, look, other people that you've heard of who have more marketing behind them, like Zora and Foundation and stuff, have less volume than then often. So it's worth considering that they're like kind of this weird dark horse that
Starting point is 00:38:36 artists like a lot more. They invented this green, this green NFT, like proof of stake thing. That was there. That was there. I actually like, like, Tezos, like, kind of seated all these,
Starting point is 00:38:50 like, blockchain has a terrible carbon footprint discussion to, like, push Tezos and green NFTs, which is annoying because then it's like, it just becomes this cloud they discuss over every other other blockchain. But I guess it's how they get, you know,
Starting point is 00:39:03 carve out their niche, right? It's like, like, like, why else would you mint an NFT on Tezos versus Ethereum? And it's like, well, it's like proof of stake.
Starting point is 00:39:10 So therefore it's green, I guess. But even, even like, that idea is sort of, of, you know, has to be sort of, you know, forced and created. Okay, let's move on to biggest surprise. So I'll go ahead and start on biggest surprise. So biggest surprise of 2021 for me was the rise of the one-bit pools on uniswap v3.
Starting point is 00:39:29 So this was something that, like, I always thought fundamentally about uniswap, that uniswap, so I'm not going to try to explain uniswap very briefly, but with uniswap v3, you had this ability for different uniswap pools to charge different prices. that basically get collected as a fee for the LPs. And my assumption had always been that by the nature of Uniswap, they're not going to be able to charge super, super tight fees, super small fees for most of these markets because Uniswap just doesn't have enough fine-grained ability
Starting point is 00:40:00 to price things really effectively. It's just too gas inefficient, you know, just the natural nature of AMMs that you need some significant fees to charge in order for the whole thing to work. And one-bit pools have emerged now on Uniswap B3. They were voted in. I think originally it was like 5-bip was the smallest fee range.
Starting point is 00:40:17 And they upgraded to now have one-bit pools. And they're now doing an insane amount of volume. So I think it's both on stables. And also, isn't it also on ETHUSC or something? I think it is, but I'm looking at the here, I'll look at the site right now. I think it's mostly still just stables. But that kind of makes sense, right? I think it would still be very hard for them to be profitable.
Starting point is 00:40:42 Yeah, yeah. on you're not stable pairs. What's the other dominant? There was another dominant one-bit pool. Maybe it's actually come down a lot because people realize they can make money on it. Okay, but then the five-bip, USCE pool.
Starting point is 00:40:54 Yeah. I also found that quite surprising that five bips was like a really stable. Five-bips outperformed. Five-bips, USCE. 30 basis points on the fees you earn. Yeah. Crazy.
Starting point is 00:41:09 Yeah. Absolutely crazy. Yeah. So that really blew me away. way. I found that that that was definitely not what I anticipated was going to happen with the advent of Unity V3, but
Starting point is 00:41:21 UnityV3 really proved everybody wrong. So incredible stuff. Yeah, that's a good one. Rob, you want to go? Which category are we on? Biggest surprise. Oh, Biggest surprise. I think Biggest surprise was this topic. He did, Robert was not prepared.
Starting point is 00:41:38 I was, you know, researching one bit bit pools. I was on Uniswob.Infoam. So the biggest surprise that I had was actually an NFT land. And there was a couple surprises. One is that BIPO 5,000 days sold for $69 million and it feels like 20 years ago. Doesn't feel like 2021. Totally. Second is bored apes flipped punks.
Starting point is 00:42:01 Huge surprise. I never would have thought that even a couple months ago, right? Huge surprise. I think the floor flipped, not the, not the aggregate. Right, right. Yeah, we're not talking aliens versus, you know, some names, but the floor, which most users consider to be the primary price. Because for most people, that's the on-ramp to the asset, right? So the floor, which is what most people would use to get into the NFT flipped.
Starting point is 00:42:30 Huge surprise. Mostly due to two extremely different approaches to IP. And if you count people, it's like a third approach to IP. But apes versus cryptopunks really, I think, explained for people. two different approaches. One is a very corporate approach, we'll call it Cryptopunks, and one is more of a bottom-up approach, which is apes. Still with like a top-down, like, creation of new assets and community building,
Starting point is 00:42:54 but one in which, you know, it feels like, you know, top-down versus bottom-up. And I think it was a primary driver about why this year saw apes exceed punks, which I never would have thought at the beginning of the year. I never would have thought that Larva Labs would have been restrictive of IP and tried to monetize it for themselves, while Apes would give IP rights to their owners and users, as well as lots and lots of airdrops of new assets to their owners to make it feel like owning it had like IP+++,.
Starting point is 00:43:25 But in terms of the outcome of these two strategies, I was surprised by the fact that it worked so effectively to take what was the Bitcoin of NFTs and have the Ethereum of NFTs flip it. I'd very much agree with you. surprising and not something able to anticipate it. But I don't think it's because of the IP thing. I think it's just purely like a, like art and sort of like what vein of
Starting point is 00:43:50 culture have you tapped into? Like, Larva Labs, I think, and I think Cryptopunks like just aren't, don't have that sort of like mainstream accessibility. We've seen like, obviously some, some artist agencies are like pushing, you know, apes through their, you know, through their celebrities. So like athletes, a lot of entertainers getting into apes. And that sort of becomes a sort of like, you know, Mimetic desire thing.
Starting point is 00:44:12 On top of everything you mentioned around, just like engaging more with the community. Larva Labs is like this like orphaned child or Cryptopunks is like this orphan child that Larva Labs just doesn't really want to deal with, it seems like. But yeah. Boo Larva Labs, boo. Yeah. So yeah, I agree with you very surprising.
Starting point is 00:44:30 But I think the IP thing, again, is like, if the esoteric take, it's like crypto people care about that. But I think if you go to the board ape meet up in New York, people are like, they just think it's cool. And it's like the artwork is maybe more accessible or more interesting or like more varied. And for whatever reason, you know, there's probably some random processes to like making it, you know, more accessible to people. Turner, you want to go up next? Big a surprise?
Starting point is 00:44:54 Yeah. Yeah, I think that my biggest surprise was sort of the Luna burn, how effective that was. And like how like Luna just like, you know, as one of the Sol Luna Avax contingent really sort of. bloomed, but Luna grew in a very different way than Solana and Avalanche. Avalanche and Solana really grew from a ton of yield farms, which are basically places where people could put up assets and earn sort of percentage ownership and new smart contracts that are being built as protocols. Luna has very few Defi protocols on it.
Starting point is 00:45:32 There's very little app activity outside of the main payment transfer, and crucially, they're staking derivative. So their staking derivative drives like 60 to 80% of the volume demand for the stable coin that is native to the Luna's platform, UST. And Luna had a bunch of apps earlier in the year that had a ton of success and then that kind of got crimped by regulatory stuff like Mirror. So I don't know if you even, you guys remember this, but all the Dex's front ends, like the official ones, removed Mirror and Uma. because of like the sort of regulatory stuff around synthetics. But in spite of that, Luna building these staking derivatives
Starting point is 00:46:18 and building this kind of sort of like almost a little bit like an Ome-style liquidity mechanic for borrowing against your stake really was able to bootstrap like crazy. And then they did this burn where they burned a gigantic portion of the supply. And historically when chains have done this, like Stellar did this burn where they burned 50% of the Lumen supply, did not do anything, right? The Luna burn is the exact opposite.
Starting point is 00:46:43 Both of them have astronomical names, but that's the only thing they have in common. So I think that's like a really interesting thing of like how staking derivatives can actually bootstrap. Staking derivatives combined with a burn can like five extra market cap on a big cap coin. Yeah, no, a pretty incredible success story for token economics being able to really drive the value
Starting point is 00:47:08 of a token. Tom, big a surprise? I guess sort of going along with Robert, just like the NFT Renaissance, I think like the Defi kind of wave and DeFi summer 2020, like we kind of felt that it was coming for for a while
Starting point is 00:47:25 and we sort of saw this gradual buildup of projects that were building in the space and developing and sort of, you know, it sort of felt like there was, there was a trajectory behind it. I was looking back. back before this show, like, okay, what were people predicting in 2021 and like, what did people miss? And basically, like, obviously people have been excited about NFTs for a while, you know,
Starting point is 00:47:49 myself, myself included, and sort of investing in the NFT space. But no one was really like, like, and if there's no NFT section of people's 2021, you know, predictions, it was like, oh, NFTs are a thing. Like, maybe they'll people will be into digital art next year. And so if you're like, and if the NFT Renaissance and specifically the different waves of it, you know, I think just caught me by surprise and I got a lot of people by surprise, like how mainstream it was. It's kind of a weird idea and like I feel like it's kind of nerdy. But like, you know, there was sort of that wave in March that was all celebrity driven like Nifty Gateway like Grimes NFTs and like that was when it was on SNL.
Starting point is 00:48:26 And I was like, okay, I kind of get that like celebrities want to like sell, you know, digital representations of themselves. That makes sense. But the fact that all these like crypto-native like PFP things have gone so popular. I just would not have predicted. It's kind of crazy to me that there's people on TikTok explaining how to like set up MetaMask and like switch it over to like Polygon. And like it's people are really, really getting in the weeds with it.
Starting point is 00:48:49 And it's like very mainstream. So I never would have predicted that. I think I thought it would have been kind of, you know, nifty gateway style forever. But yeah, it turns out there's you. There's your 2021 surprise. Crypto comes out. You fast, man. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:49:05 Things change sooner than you, than you, uh, think they can. Okay, we're running low on time. So we're going to, we're going to skip forward to best meme. So what was the best meme slash moment slash event of 2021? Tom, can you throw, can you throw these up on the screen? Because I think we're going to, we're going to need to. Yes. Yes. So, Rob, why don't you go first? Rob, you're muted. The most important award category right here. This is obviously the most important. This is one we're going to, we're going to make a trophy for. Great meme. I love this meme.
Starting point is 00:49:37 Tom, I feel like we need an NFT of this. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. So I'll go to go first. So my pick for best meme was the SPF, Sam Bankman-Freed, the shoes that he was wearing at the Capitol hearing. I thought this was absolutely amazing. And I still remember this.
Starting point is 00:49:59 So this is just the look of somebody who, they have so much money that nothing matters anymore. That is how you tie your shoe when you don't care what anybody thinks. Other than that, you don't want them to shut down crypto. Those are the shoes of a superhero. Yeah. Yeah. So that's my thing.
Starting point is 00:50:15 Yeah. All right. Tom, what's you? I interpreted this very differently. My top meme for 2021 was Web 3. I think the rebranding of crypto and, like, cryptocurrency, two web 3, sort of inadvertently has been super genius. like for whatever reason, that has sort of made it click for people.
Starting point is 00:50:36 And now, like, it feels a little weird to tell people I work in crypto or I'm a crypto investor. I think that kind of almost has like a little bit of a strange or negative connotation. But you tell people you work in Web 3, it's maybe a little bit pretentious, but I feel like it sort of made the entire value prop and like the entire ethos of like the whole space, like a little bit more for mainstream, even like sort of, you know, web two normal tech type people. So that's my vote for Best Meme actually is like.
Starting point is 00:51:02 Web3 sort of almost sort of supplanting crypto as like how people refer to everything that's going on in the space. That's that's a good choice. I've also noticed that Web 3 has become much more high brow, I feel like. Crypto sounds like you're trying to get rich quick. It sounds like whatever whereas Web 3 is like, no, you're trying to remake the web and this new kind of enlightened, more socialist image. Yeah. I feel that. There's nothing better than venture capitalists saying their socialist thanks to Web3. Like, that's the ultimate 3D chess or Escher impossible staircase move.
Starting point is 00:51:40 It's true. It's a little bit more inclusive, right? It's like you get the NFTs, you get the file sharing, you get the decentralized Twitter. Like, you know, it's weird to call like Filecoin like cryptocurrency. It's like, well, kind of, but also kind of not, not really. Yeah. I feel like AOC does not like crypto, but she does like Web3.
Starting point is 00:51:59 Yeah. So it works. It expands the tent pole, you know. allows us to bring in more so actually i just have a question like what's the provenance right i always just thought gavin wood came up with it for describing polka but never marketed it that way because it's the web three foundation right they they actually have the term way way back for five years ago five years ago but someone then and i suspect it's uh you know a 16 z plus a couple other people who are doing more like lobbying stuff in congress uh but like someone revitalized
Starting point is 00:52:33 and ripped out the Pocodot part and said like everything out like NFTs equals Web 3 not Pocod. And I thought that was also there's some like interesting dynamic there of like how did that transition happen because Pocodot had had that name forever. And they were hitting the circuit really hard being like, this is the new internet, this is decentralized web in like the bottom of the bear market and no one gave a shit. Like literally zero people gave a shit about that narrative then. And somehow now NFTs made it like tangible.
Starting point is 00:53:04 Couldn't tell you. I couldn't tell you, but I'd love to see some sleuthing on where exactly the Web3 term got popularized from. A16Z, four characters. That's the answer. Probably. Probably true. True, what's your pick? You know, in my camaraderie with the omies, it's 3-3, but I think the best moment for 3-3 was when Grimes, after the Elon Musk separation thing, and Elon Musk was like,
Starting point is 00:53:34 NFT suck. She just like posted this tweet 3-3. And I thought that was that was like that was the meme of the year for me. Solid. Yeah, I'm going to go with the real counterculture picks right here. I think all the dog coins, not doge coin,
Starting point is 00:53:52 but all of the fly-by-night like pop-up for a week dogs named after Alon Musk, named after some other meme. The recursivity of these memes with the dog coins has gotten so deep that I think they win, just in terms of total amount of energy captured by the retail public.
Starting point is 00:54:15 These worthless, pointless dog offshoot of dog, offshoot of dog coins, I think one, just based on their prevalence and the amount of market caps that they created off of absolutely nothing but meme this year. Like the fact that Shiba, flokey and all of these things are what they are, I hate it. I think it's dark, it's depressing, it goes against everything I'd like and believe in in crypto.
Starting point is 00:54:44 But the crazy ass dog coins, I think we're the best meme this year. Solid choice. Okay. In the very short time we have left, let's do Rapid Fire, 2022 predictions. So I'll go first, I'll just listen through
Starting point is 00:55:00 my predictions for 2022, One, the Game 5 bubble pops. Two, we get a D5 bull market again. Three, I think we're going to see synthetic assets actually start to work in D5. For those that are assets that track the price of some underlying real asset, like, you know, the S&P 500 or something like that. And then lastly, I think we're going to get a spot Bitcoin ETF. Those are my predictions for 2022. Tom, what do you?
Starting point is 00:55:28 I got Dow boom. I think Constitution Dow was just the be. beginning, I think people are going to figure out how to make crown funding and Dow's work well and make it work super simply. And we're going to see Dows go out and doing more reworld things and buying stuff. So I think that's going to be a thing. I think crypto-native gaming is going to kind of replace GameFi, like kind of stuff like Dark Forest, where it's like you're using a blockchain to do game mechanics and PVP and like, you know, you're playing something through like a smart contract as opposed to just like taking items and put them on a blockchain. I think
Starting point is 00:56:00 we're going to see more stuff like that. anything identity. A lot of teams working on different ways of sort of, you know, now that people are actually doing things on chain, there's real economies and, you know, people trading NFTs, like finding ways of sort of tie identity
Starting point is 00:56:12 into what you're actually doing on chain. So I think that's going to be more of a thing going forward in 2022 and beyond. Okay. Tarun, predictions. Yes. So, yeah, to Tom's point on Dalles, I think Dahl's purchases will get wilder than they were this year. You know, like Tom, Robert and I are in Pleaser Dow, And, you know, it's kind of crazy that that was March where we were like trying to negotiate buying Butang from the government.
Starting point is 00:56:41 But, you know, I think it's going to be like 10 times crazier, like a sports team, maybe a tiny nation. I don't know. That one might be a little bit harder. But I think there's going to be some very, very crazy purchases over the next 12 months by collective units. And I think privacy preserving layer twos are going to have a moment because I think bootstraps. something like tornado on every single chain is kind of hard. Getting a lot of liquidity, getting like kind of the mechanism working. And there's clearly a demand for a tornado on ETH. So I think that there will be demand for such solutions.
Starting point is 00:57:18 But I think it'll be easier to do it as a privacy preserving layer too. And there's a bridge from multiple chains to it. And things like Aztec and stuff, you know, I have been making some crazy strides. Very impressive. On the ZK side, I think that was like the biggest surprise for me. how far as tech has gotten. I think there's going to be $100 million plus hack on Solunavix. I'm just calling that as the one thing.
Starting point is 00:57:41 Soluene Avex? At the application layer or at the pro polo? Oh, saloonavx. Solunavx, yes. Solunavx. Which sounds like a really bad, poorly made COVID vaccine. That's true. We should call it SLA.
Starting point is 00:57:59 I feel like it's a good acronym. We've got to start popularizing. I think on the application layer, I think like we're overdue for some big hacks there. There's just too much money sitting in these unaudited yield farms on those that like that can't last forever. NFT finance is going to have its moment. People borrowing against their NFTs getting leverage on their NFTs. I think fractional obviously having such a big year was the first part of that. But like that is going to expand into other type of financial products.
Starting point is 00:58:29 And I think blockchain gaming them. down. Most GameFi, I don't think you survive. Sorry. I think there will be games that are made. I just don't think they're going to be this like, you know, SoftBank throws $2 billion at something and like it like becomes popular. Shots fired by SoftBank. If you're out there, please sponsor our show. All right. Robert, last word, 2022 predictions. So I think 2022 is the year. that we get crypto native legislation in the United States, where we have two houses of Congress and an executive branch that ratify legislation around crypto doesn't mean it's going to be huge, doesn't mean it's going to create clarity in all different ways. But I think we're going to get
Starting point is 00:59:20 real crypto legislation in 2022. I think that we've reached the boiling point. I think there's starting to be an awareness. I think there's starting to be a conversation entering in national stage where I think 2022 is the year that we start to see some real legislation. And you think the legislation is going to be good or bad or neutral? Could be either. Could be both. But obviously, I'm hopeful that it's positive. Robert, this is 22 predictions.
Starting point is 00:59:47 Yeah. Good, bad, or neutral? I'm thinking that there's going to be legislation. All right. You're fired from the show. You're not invited back to the next one, Robert. Can't fire that. I think that's, I think that's true.
Starting point is 01:00:01 It is a doubt. We've got to put up to a vote. Yeah. All right. Well, guys, this was a lot of fun. Thank you to Laura for having us. And thank you all of you for listening. I think that's it. For us, we'll see us in the new year in 2022.
Starting point is 01:00:15 And we look forward to de-genning with the rest of you. But thanks for having us.

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