Unchained - The Chopping Block: ETHPoW Is 'a Terrible Way to Fork the Blockchain' - Ep. 396
Episode Date: September 14, 2022Welcome to The Chopping Block! Crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Robert Leshner and Tarun Chitra chop it up about the latest news in the digital asset industry. In this episode, Emin Gün Sirer, the emp...eror of Avalanche, also joined the conversation Show topics: Gün’s take on the Ava Labs conspiracy story and whether there was any truth in the videos The impact of the Merge on ETH issuance and energy usage What’s going on with the ETHPoW fork, and how the team has been messing up The TL;DR of the technical side of Ethereum scaling, explained by Tarun How, in the beginning, proof of stake was designed to resemble proof of work What Ethereum miners are going to do after the Merge Whether increasing hash rates spike prices of PoW coins How the Basic Attention Token is like the Stanford prison experiment Whether the fights between Gün and other founders were positive or negative How an exchange delisted every privacy coin Whether Coinbase's support of the lawsuit against the US Treasury over Tornado Cash was a PR move How this moment in history resembles the 90s and the rise of the internet Whether there are blockchain-haters and what the crypto industry can do better How there can’t be a single chain to meet every need How FTX and Coinbase have different approaches to regulation How would everyone celebrate a successful Merge and whether there’s a chance of it failing Hosts Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital Tarun Chitra, managing partner at Robot Ventures Robert Leshner, founder of Compound Guest Emin Gün Sirer, Founder and CEO of Ava Labs Episode Links Ava Labs Accusations: Emin Gün Sirer’s statement CoinDesk article Crypto Leaks article Tornado Cash Treasury Press release Coinbase supports lawsuit against US Treasury Huobi delisting privacy coins Previous coverage of the Tornado Cash Sanctions on Unchained: Is TRM Labs Blocking Addresses From DeFi Protocols? Ari Redbord Says No Tornado Cash Sanctioned. Did the Government Overstep Its Bounds? The Chopping Block: Did OFAC Overstep by Sanctioning Tornado Cash? Given the Sanctions on Tornado Cash, Is Ethereum Censorship Resistant? Preston Van Loon on Ethereum's Merge and His Lawsuit Against Treasury ETH Proof of Work and Miners: ChainID missing; the request from Coinbase CoinDesk article The ETHPoW team said the fork will be deployed within 24 hours of the Merge ETHPoW team’s promise to abolish EIP-1559 ETHPoW first blocks The Merge: Ethereum Foundation Merge announcement. Ethereum carbon emission reductions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Not a dividend. It's a tale of two quond.
Now, your losses are on someone else's balance.
Generally speaking, air drops are kind of pointless anyways.
Unnamed trading firms who are very involved.
D5.8 is the ultimate policy.
D5 protocols are the antidote to this problem.
Hello, everybody. Welcome to the chopping block.
Every couple weeks, the usually four of us get together and give the crypto,
give the industry insider's perspective on the crypto topics of the day.
So, quick intros.
First up, we've got Robert, Cryptoontost.
sewer and Captain of Compound. Next up, we've got Turun, the Gigabrain, and Grand Puba at
Conlitt. Then we've got Emin Gunsir, the Emperor of Avalanche. And lastly, myself, I'm
the head hype man at Dragonfly. So we are early stage investors in crypto, but I want to caveat
that nothing we say here is investment advice, legal advice, or even life advice.
Goon, it's great to see you. I know that you have had a harrowing few weeks with this
whole drama. We talked about it on the last episode, just to get
everybody caught up and really quickly jump into the media thing.
So there's this guy named Kyle Roche,
who is a class action lawyer, who was caught in some kind of
sting video recording operation,
basically saying that he is the attack dog of Avalanche,
and he's suing a bunch of Avalanche competitors.
Aval Labs came out and basically said that actually Kyle Roche
was one of, like, a bunch of lawyers we used.
Kyle has since been largely publicly disgraced.
both Kyle and Aval Labs have both
basically denied that they have a continuing ongoing relationship.
And Kyle Roche apparently, since our last episode,
it's been announced that Kyle Roche withdrew from the open class action cases
and was let go from his own law firm, Roche Friedman.
So if I'm understanding correctly,
the Tether lawsuit, the Biffnax lawsuit,
Tron and Binance class action lawsuits,
all Kyle Roche is no longer active on those lawsuits.
So I know that this has probably been,
an insane few weeks for you.
What's your...
Give us the industry insider's perspective.
Sure.
When I heard what was on that site,
I was taken aback.
I was incredulous.
And my first reaction was,
this is crazy.
And it's so out there that it's unbelievable
that I don't think anyone's going to take
any of this seriously.
So I still hold that position.
It's just way out there.
And Kyle Roche is a lawyer of the many lawyers that we employed.
It's one of the lawyers that we employed in the early days of Ava Labs.
We've since, of course, cut all ties with him.
And Kyle was evidently trying to impress someone.
And to do that, he decided to make up this whole Walter Mitty world for himself,
where he's doing things and in the middle of everything and suing this and that.
the one time we told Kyle what to do was the time after he sued Solana.
And we learned about it from the press.
And we were immediately on the phone with him saying, what the heck are you doing?
You can't be doing this.
And he refused any advice.
So we told him not to sue Solana.
And my general counsel then wrote a long piece saying that the core argument behind that class action lawsuit is entirely false and doesn't have legs.
So that's the fact pattern.
We don't sue our competitors.
We have nothing to do with those lawsuits.
So that's the short of it.
The long of it, of course, is, you know, Kyle has sued a lot of projects, has made a lot of enemies,
and he got trapped into saying things that are utterly false.
I will add one additional fact to the fact pattern.
He admitted that he lied, and it's also been entered into court proceedings.
So when he's withdrawing, he has actually written out that there were complete fair
publications and falsifications made.
So I think it's over.
You know, I'm over it.
And, you know, there's no material to those.
But there was a joke before that when Tarun was late, that he'd better be here on time.
What else I'll have him?
I'll have him sued.
What did you talk about people named Kyle and Kirkra?
That's a good question.
It's a good question.
Wait, are you saying there are other Kyle's who are problem children?
No, I'm just saying there's lots of Kyle and Krifficitor who are allowed to show up in the news.
Okay.
I thought you were, I thought you were might have been calling out of Pacific.
So amongst all of the false statements that Kyle made, were there any truthful statements in the video recordings that you saw?
Sure. So I'm supposed to extract from what I saw. So let me be clear, I didn't have the heart to watch all of it because it's just, it just triggered me way too much. But he was employed in the early days. But just about every statement I heard was, you know, a small nugget of truth.
maxed out to its extreme, like from the percentage of coins that he supposedly holds to the impact
he had, to how he did, whatever he did, it's just all like all just extreme far out there.
So yeah, he was our lawyer in the early days. And, you know, that's about the extent of it.
Oh, he did represent us in a handful of cases. Let me be clear. He represented us in a bunch of lawsuits,
you know, routine commercial things, you know, contractor, we terminate a relationship,
contractor wants more this and that, they sue us, whatever.
So those kinds of things.
As far as I can remember off the top of my head, about, he was involved in about six
different cases, and they were all defensive.
And then there was one lawsuit where he represented me against somebody who made statements
about my involvement in some organization that I have nothing to do with.
So that was the extent of our involvement.
Yeah, I mean, we talked about this on the last episode.
Jill was mentioning that if you're in crypto long enough,
you just come across people who are just like,
I was in the room when blah, blah, blah happened,
and I was like, I'm Satoshi Nakamoto.
I mean, Ethereum has, what, how many co-founder?
I was how to say.
Every day, it's been pleading.
It's like, yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.
A few dozen co-founders, right?
They all play the critical role.
But the thing is, if I try to count the number of people
have told me they're in Ethereum co-founder,
it's much more than a few dozen.
That's like the
crazy is
Yeah, yeah.
Usually three digits.
In many ways,
that's the problem
of decentralization
is that we don't have
very formal structures
around these things.
So people are just free
to kind of say whatever.
And it's often,
it's common enough
in startup.
I mean,
I can't tell you how many people
I've met who tell me
that they're Elon's closest friend.
And it's just like,
okay, well,
you can't all be right
because he seems very busy.
So he has to get the memes
from somewhere.
So you might not be his friend.
You might just be the meme supplier.
Oh, that is true.
That's a different kind of friendship
than the normal kind.
But so do you feel
like this is mostly blown over? I think so. I mean, what's there to blow over? It's just a bunch of
made-up stuff. There is not much I can do. I can control the things I build. I can control the things I
I do, but I can't control what other people outside of my organization will say to the rest of the
world. And so, and then, you know, the only thing you can do when they say crazy things is you say,
no, that's not the truth. This is what we did. And I'm hoping every time I underestimate the world,
it surprises me in a pleasant way.
I think people are decent.
They understand what can happen,
and the truth finds a way of coming out.
So I think this is over now.
And it's over in my mind.
I think we've had a very strong reaction.
We clarified the record repeatedly.
So, of course, there will be attempts to bring this back again and again and again.
That's okay.
We'll deal with that.
That's just a minor hassle for us.
So tell us about the ICP angle,
because I know that this is an interesting angle
to the Arrothan coffee?
Yeah, yeah.
That's right.
You've seen clown posse behind it.
Not the I can see it.
So I don't really have much to say on that front.
Kyle sued ICP.
And I didn't actually know that Kyle had sued ICP until this event.
So that's all I know.
And so that's that connection.
And Dom also has some kind of beef with us because he thinks he owns the word subnet.
And we use the word subnet.
And that's fine, whatever.
Like he can get upset at us.
We didn't know he was using the word.
I think the word is pretty clear the way we use it.
We have a different definition for it.
He's free to use it as well.
That's totally fine.
So that's the angle I know.
And there's also a BSV angle.
So Kyle had sued, was involved in the lawsuit between Kleinman and Craig Wright.
And so, you know, again, it's my loose understanding, may or may not be factual,
that whoever did the recordings was involved in BSV.
But I don't know.
So this is all out, way outside of.
How did he get involved in all these cases?
I'm like, either he's a genius lawyer or something.
Like, there's got to be some, there's got to be something.
He's like somehow with like, I feel like a lawyer to just file a class action lawsuit against
anyone they want.
And that's one of the problems with the legal system that we have in America.
It's one of the things that is actually nice about the U.S.
That the government doesn't have to prosecute you.
If there's something bad happening that affects enough number of people that you can take
the matter into your own hands.
So I like that thing.
Then it becomes very litigious, and that, of course, is not good.
In any case, this is all beyond me.
I have nothing to do with this stuff.
You know, we built systems.
Kyle does lawyer stuff.
And we needed defensive work.
We hired him, and we haven't used him in an offensive capacity.
Well, anyway, I think we've said enough about this.
At this point, I feel like it's kind of blood from a stone with respect to the story.
It's just been a slow few weeks.
That we have to...
I don't know if it's been slow.
I feel like it's been pretty slow.
It feels like it's been a very slow few weeks.
I don't think that's true.
Well, what is the exciting thing that's happened
the last few weeks?
Well, I feel like people are speculating
on the one big event of the week.
That is true.
The merge?
Yeah.
Oh, the merge.
So, I mean, that is the one big thing.
That's a big event.
Today, we're recording this on September 12th.
The merge is slated most likely to go live on September 15th.
So for those of you who somehow don't know
what the hell's going on,
the merge is when Ethereum transitions to full proof of stake and abandons proof of work,
except for the one HeathPalf work, which I guess is still supposedly going to go on.
I think it's going to happen.
It's going to happen, but I think they're going to...
Will it succeed?
I feel like it's going to happen, but they're going to mess it up.
Cool.
So, yeah, so, okay, so just real quick high-level stats on the merge.
So net issuance is expected to be between 0.5% annually after the merge.
just for reference, Bitcoin today is about 1.8% annual inflation.
Ethereum pre-merge, not including Feeburn, was about 4.5%.
Feeburn, obviously, has been super volatile, but it's, you know, somewhere in the 4% range
is going to go down to about 0.5%.
So you're going to lose 90% of the ETH issuance after the merge.
And, of course, energy usage is going to cut down by like 99.95%.
So it's going to be basically totally green and very ESG after the merge.
Anybody following the ETH-PAL stuff?
Does anyone know what's going on there?
I loosely follow the ETH PAL stuff.
Here's my take on the situation.
Yeah.
Obviously there's a huge amount of proof of work mining hardware designed for Ethereum that has to go somewhere.
In general, Ethereum Classic is not a great use of that mining equipment.
And a lot of the miners think that the easiest thing to do is to keep on mining Ethereum with the existing state and just fork it and direct all of their hardware towards continuing proof of work for a fork of Ethereum.
I think the bigger issue is that there's a lot of hardware that has to go somewhere and is depreciating quickly and miners are at some point either going to have to realize that the hardware is no longer as useful or, you know, will a blockchain into existence that has value. And I think they're trying to will a blockchain into existence that has value. Now, the approach that they're taking is to fork the entire state of Ethereum, not fork just the ether balances, but to fork every single smart contract. And I think it's going to be a total cluster.
in their Discord and it already is
they have like a private discord
and I will say it is
Oh you're in a private discord?
Yeah they're like DM to get into our private discord
if you want to help QA or RPCs
I was like sure okay I see okay interesting
Is Gondlett going to support the EF?
No no no no this is me as an Anon
I just wanted to see what I'm dealing with
I don't think anyone needs
Leak the anon alpha
The alpha is basically
They haven't been able to sync of a node fully
with all their changes.
It's not bitwise identical
up to some point.
So there's just some points
at which they are
observing some contract state
that's different than East Mainnet.
And they haven't been able to fix it
and obviously they don't have much time
and all the miners have to sync.
The one thing is if they can't get their client
to be bitwise identical,
you can't just take an existing archive node
and use its data up to the fork block.
What else are they changing
that it wouldn't be bitwise identical?
Well, yeah, there's a lot.
There's like pre-compiles and stuff that have been added that they're trying to remove.
They also changed all the minor fees.
So like the base fee is going to minor Dow.
It's not going to burnt anymore.
They're taking all the theorem foundations, Ethan, sending it to themselves.
What?
Yeah, there's like all sorts of shit.
I did not know this.
But they fucked up all of that.
So they're trying to give miners access to some like private RPC node they're running that they're debugging on,
but not giving out the full thing
because I still can't get identical.
This is a terrible way to fork the blockchain.
This is ridiculous.
Why?
It's not a terrible way to for it.
It's not the best thing.
It's not what I would have been.
Let's hear the good defense.
How would Goon fork Ethereum?
I wouldn't fork Ethereum.
If you were, if you did, if you did it.
Let's say you wake up tomorrow morning,
you wake up tomorrow morning and you are the head of Heathbound.
No, no.
That kind of a fork is a hostile fork.
I would never do it.
But if I were done, I'd start an L2 powered by a POW.
And then that'd be it.
I'd just be like, hey, this is an L2 done.
And that would be the sensible thing to do.
But have you guys looked at the fee calculation in Gath?
It's just layers upon layers of very complex code.
Like, I'm not the least bit surprised to hear that they screwed up that stuff.
The base fee burning thing, like removing that actually like just change some.
Changes so many things.
Yeah, it's just so subtle.
The mempool, one of the bugs I saw in the Discord was the mempil priority queue.
Do you remember, like, in, like, the early days of DeFi, there are lots of these bugs that people found where, like, the Geth didn't order equal keys in the priority queue for gas.
Oh, I remember this.
Yeah, people would, like, grind.
People would, like, grind ones.
So, so, like, basically, they have bugs like that coming from their base fee change.
Oh, wow.
So, like, they can't replay correctly, which is, like, going to, like, how are you, how are you going to?
going to mine on that. This was just me going in for a little dumpster dive and I was like,
all right, great. How much of the communication there is in English? There's a lot of U.S. miners
who are asking questions. Like, all the random U.S. miners who are running GPUs are like sitting
there. And they don't have any Chinese people working there. They're all in Texas. I see. But the
development is all happening in China, right? But the U.S. miners are like running the nodes and trying to
like tests that they're existing.
They have codebases too for managing the DevOps of like, oh, when do they spin up and spin
down things.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
How much should they allocate?
And, like, all of that's not working because they can't actually sink the thing.
Wow.
That's why I only know the problems from the perspective of these people trying to run the nodes.
I'm sure there's even more shit in the development.
This is just from that.
They got three days.
No, I don't know how you're going to sink in time.
Like, I actually think they're just going to do kind of what you're saying.
Like, they're going to give up on it and just, just run.
on a separate chain and try to sink it.
Yeah.
Right, right.
Because they want to send all these like random accounts for themselves.
Yeah, that's not the right way to launch the fork.
I mean, they did it too late.
That's the problem, right?
Like Chandler Groh came out and said it like, what, like three months ago?
Yeah.
And they didn't even like get enough moment.
They should, come on.
This is the slowest moving railroad car you've ever seen.
You could have like tried to have started like a year early.
Right, right.
And this, the same thing BASV did, right?
Didn't BSV also basically take a bunch of Satoshi's.
Well, they also, they also, they also, they also, they're both of Sotoshi's, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Did they?
Mm-hmm.
Do they not?
They did?
It's Satoshi's vision.
Yeah.
It is, but I didn't think they actually usurp the coins.
I'm pretty sure they did.
Yeah, I believe they reassigned it.
They talked about it.
I don't know if they did it.
Oh, man.
You probably know better than we do.
I don't.
They're like your arch enemies for whatever reason.
No, no, no.
No, no.
No, for whatever reason they love to attack me, but no, no, no.
No, I haven't followed closely enough.
now. You know, just tweet directly at Hasib.
That's right. If you're part of the BSV community and you're mad about being these accusations,
just go ahead and flame me into the ground. Okay, so whatever. Eve Pow's side. Sounds like it's a
dumpster fire, but whatever. Yeah. It's kind of a little bit embarrassing to all the people who did
forks in the past. It's like, it's like, it's like, kind of shows forks are to your blog point,
like very hard to orchestrate with smart contracts. That's right. That's right. Well, they're, they're,
They're trying.
They're trying their best.
And so it's whatever.
But the main show is the merge, right?
We should talk about the merge.
Yeah.
That's a great thing.
So here's the thing.
I'm kind of like,
so when you're talking to lore about the show,
and we're like,
oh,
you should make it about the merge.
You guys should talk about it.
What else is there to talk about?
We've all talked about the merge for like years.
That's going to happen on Wednesday or whatever.
And then like, the day after Wednesday,
you're going to wake up and you're like,
oh, the merch happened.
Now what?
What's going to afford to in life?
Now the merge is done.
All the features that are promised in all these EIPs,
4,000 and up.
Yeah, so like, okay, so we gotta wait for like
the actual changes in the shit that happened.
Exactly.
No, I agree.
44, all these things like unclear with their development.
Wait, what is 4844?
Explain it to that.
40.
Yeah, so there's a couple
paths that Ethereum must take.
So Ethereum, if you
didn't tune in since 2019,
was basically like,
hey, our scaling plan is to go sharding,
which is to, you know,
have many shards. They synchronized on the beacon chain.
They've decided to go the cosmos,
slash Celestia route more so than the pure sharding route,
and have a data availability layer where basically,
you know, there's sort of this way of verifying that someone has the right data
without you actually, you know, storing all of that data yourself.
It's called like sort of a data availability proof.
And so they want to add that to Ethereum so that applications don't need to actually
like store as much data or hopefully.
And so they've, there's a bunch of proposals, which,
in some ways
some have argued that they are block size
increases, some have argued they're not.
I'm not going to wait into that
or I'll let the BSV people handle that.
But it basically separates
blobs, which is the data that's
written that is not
computed on necessarily, but
within the transaction is submitted
and data that
and compute separately. So separating
compute and storage, which a bunch of
blockchains already do. Doing that theorem is a lot
more hairy because you need to make it backwards
compatible with all the existing storage. Now the
upshot of this for roll-ups is that
roll-ups only have to do compute
when they post a fraud-proof, usually.
If they're fraud-proofs they're working
whatever, whatever the end state of roll-up.
This fantasy world of yours is amazing.
T-gost infinity of roll-ups,
not T-E equals an hour of roll-ups.
That's what I'm saying. So roll-ups do
post these blobs, right, because the state has to live
on this chain. And I think
there's still a lot of debate as to
whether Ethereum will be able to implement this in a fast path and actually get this running,
or is this going to be like 1559 where, you know, like burning the base fee.
Ironically, a form of lock-in against forks, as we've learned, in some indirect way,
by being a very complicated piece of code.
But, yeah, they, well, are they going to implement this?
How are they going to implement it?
It's still a big, and so I think the post-merge roadmap is a bigger concern.
The merge is just a narrative for investors who don't want to really understand how technology works to buy into it
because they're like, oh, like, supply went.
I disagree.
Oh, all these ESG funds can not buy.
Like the current version of it, none of the features that were promised a long time ago are even close to being used.
Well, I agree with that.
I agree with that.
Yes.
It's just like we went from this list of 500 items and we did like two.
And it took 10 times.
It's very simple.
Merge and then surge.
Merge comes before
Surge.
General Robert Petraeus.
I feel like they nailed the messaging.
The fact that you get on this show
the merge, the surge, the splurge, the verge.
Have you seen that that crazy flowchart diagram
that Vatolic has of this?
I mean, there's so many things on that.
This is like playing chutes and ladders
and you just got to the first ladder.
Well, unfortunately, there's no way to fast track.
You can only lose progress, apparently,
which seems like what we've done.
I mean, remember, like, the merge was supposed to be done in 2017.
Right?
That was the original Ethereum roadmap.
Was that they believe, I mean, that's why the difficulty bomb was put where it was.
Because they believe that within two years.
No, I think it was 18, but not close yet.
Okay, yeah.
I remember discussing how to shard blockchains back in 15.
Yeah.
With Vlad and Vitalik.
And, yeah, no, it's been a while.
So, good, you were there, you are, you know, the OG among OGs when it comes to seeing the development of smart contracts.
Give us, like, back in the day, how did people think about proof of stake back when Ethereum was first getting put together?
Tell us the story.
The entirety of that thinking was predicated on matching proof of work.
So everything that you see in Ethereum 2 is there because people felt that they had to one-for-one cover POW and have a mechanism that corresponds to what's happening in POW.
So, you know, things like slashing, things like, you know, just the way the discourse happened,
the framework in which people think about these things is based entirely on the Bitcoin way
of thinking and trying to match Bitcoin's features.
So, and there was a lot of talk about sharding.
And, you know, it's a good idea in general.
If I leave a PhD student alone in the first month, they will be like, oh, yeah, to scale something up, you got to shard it.
in the early days
the focus was entirely on sharding
because how else are you going to get any kind of scale up?
But if I leave a PhD student alone for a year,
they'll come back and say, let's not shard, this is hard.
Because it opens up a whole lot of issues,
especially on the public blockchain,
because now you get people who are picking and choosing their shards.
Once you shards something K-ways, you had one problem,
you've got K-shards, now we've got K-plus-one problems, right?
The K-shards each and every one of them,
plus the intershard communication role.
Yeah, K squared.
No, K squared.
Yeah, it's really K squared.
It's really K-1.
This is really K-factorial pretty easily.
So, yeah, no, it's, in the early days,
it seemed like maybe it was solvable and so on,
but Tarun just summarized it really well.
Like, it starts out with a big vision,
and then when the, you know, the push comes to shelf,
you just jettison everything.
And so now we're back to...
But I think that merge is a fantastic thing.
I cannot wait for it to happen.
One of the biggest outcomes from it will be the fact that we'll no longer talk about the merge.
So we'll save a lot of time.
We're going to move on to the search.
We're going to move on to whatever comes next.
It'll become even slower in a cycle.
I'm more excited for all these excess GPUs to just be used for stable diffusion.
And which is like, generally, I was talking to some friend of mine who works at this, like, minor in New Jersey.
And they've literally turned all their eth miners into ML excess capacity.
Is there a business model there?
Effectively, you're just competing with OpenAI, right?
Because, like, the question is, will the open source thing,
will it be, will it be good enough, like Linux?
Where, like, being the infrastructure provider, like, AWS is good enough
that, like, it will beat the, like, really optimized.
Someone's going to stick a token model on this.
I mean, they already have.
Yeah, yeah.
There's, like a million people pitching.
Golem?
Wasn't it?
Golemuram.
No, no.
No, no.
Processing and rendering.
Yeah, it was rendering.
No, no, no.
But no, but no one is actually focused on the,
AI thing of like, oh, like, how valuable is this particular graphic to you and I'm going to
upcharge you for that? Because like, I think that's where you're, that's where we haven't seen.
That's the innovation of this cycle.
You're talking about non-commodified computer.
Yeah, it's just GPU.
Stable diffusional run.
Well, no, no, no, no.
What I'm saying is that like, normally almost all compute today is commodified,
meaning that the compute is not charged you differently based on what you're doing.
And sort of, but it's not value-based pricing, it's commodity price.
You still bid in auctions for preemptibles, right?
Yeah, but it's still a commodity.
Yeah, but it's still treated as a commodity, right?
Something that is not commodity price and looks at the value you're creating with it and charges you based on the value you create.
If it took 1% of your NFT sale based on what it output, that would be non-commodity.
Exactly, but that's not commodity price.
I just more mean that I think there'll be auctions for the, there's like a fixed amount of time for space.
Yeah, yeah, but what I mean is like currently, if you look at the pricing of like Open AI API call or API call, those uniform across all queries, there's no competition.
for that, and I actually think that will change.
Oh, I see what you're saying. That's the thing that will change
now that this is sort of
like this race where like
a lot of people are doing these Stable Diffusion
startup. So if you had to estimate
the cost of computing
one call to like Staple fusion
in like thousands of a cent,
what would you estimate it?
I think right now it's free actually.
There's like a bunch of free services. I agree that's
free right now. We ignore all the subsidies
that are coming from. But like the underlying cost.
I probably in the
range of like,
tens of cents?
No.
Tens of set.
You can run this on a laptop.
But for quite a,
on the M1, not on a
like really, sure, sure.
You're not running on a laptop.
Let's say it's one cent.
Yeah, maybe a cent.
Maybe a few cents.
If it's one cent, I mean, I'm just
waiting for someone to, like, make a movie out of this.
Because like 60 frames per second, right?
Like, I'm serious.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, Google's been demonstrating some really interesting.
Okay, by the way, we're getting like way off topic.
No, this is the good stuff.
about this.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Wait, wait, wait, wait, we're coming back to what the token model for this thing is.
Right, right.
But the number one thing, the number one thing is that, like, is, so Nvidia,
Envideo has probably been the number one company that's been rocked the most by crypto, right?
Because if you remember, 2017, their stock price went crazy.
Well, they got a fine from the SEC this year by not disclosing that crypto was a material impact.
That's right, that's right.
That's right.
I feel bad for them, although they've also made a ton of money from crypto.
But now it looks like GPS are finally going back to, like, regular pricing.
like their supply shortages are going away.
Normal gamers can buy GPUs
without like 2x markup on secondary markets.
So that is one big change.
And the other thing that's happened
is that all these random proof of work
coins are starting to pump.
So Ravencoin I read is up like 100%.
Wait, why?
Would it be the inverse?
Because when you can mine it so easily?
Exactly. Because if you have GPUs, you can mine this coin.
Same with Heath Classic, right?
Why did Heath Classic go up?
Because if you have GPUs, you can mine Heath Classic.
Okay.
But who are the buyers?
You've just told me the supply.
This is what happens.
This is what happens is that people who don't understand that,
they see this leaning in.
Oh, hash rate's going up.
Therefore, it's more valuable, so I will buy it.
Or either that one of the miners are engineering.
Is it weblin good?
That's your claim.
In the short term.
In the short term.
In the short term, in the short term it is.
It's not a weblin good so much as this,
it creates momentum that causes people to buy,
and then the miners dump into that buy pressure.
Right.
Like, this happens all the time.
Every time that you see these rotation of hash rate, the price pumps because people are like, oh, finally this thing is coming to life.
Like, Ravencoin, look, I don't know anything about Ravencoin.
Wasn't that the overstock.com related one?
I don't know.
I don't know.
You have any disclosures to make?
You have any disclosure?
The only time I've ever heard the name Ravencoin is from proof of work miners who are rotating.
No, no, no.
The reason I heard about it is, do you remember there was this scandal about this company
that was trying to make an eth-acic.
This was the bottom of the bear market.
You used 2019.
Lindsay, L-I-N-Z-H-I.
And they, like, wrote this blog
about making this ASIC
that will, like, dominate
eth-mining, and it never happened.
Those people were the Ravencoin people.
Oh, okay.
That's the only reason I've ever heard of Ravencoigne.
Yeah, yeah.
I only hear about Ravencores are miners.
I've never heard of anyone normal telling me that.
I found out about it from 4chan
because people were like,
Patrick Burn is buying it or whatever.
Oh, is that right?
Yeah.
The overstock.
Oh, that guy.
Oh, that guy.
Yeah.
That guy.
He's an angel investor in it.
I feel like the big nugget here is, how often do you read Fichan?
Great question.
I was an active reader of biz in like 2017 or so.
Really?
Really.
Okay.
It got really jojacking after that and I stopped reading it.
But back in 2017, I read Bizz all the time.
Great crypto forum back in the day.
Oh.
So tell what is the Fichan perspective on crypto that you remember?
I haven't followed since 2017.
But back in the day, there was a lot of great memes about basic attention token.
And Link.
That's what Link did come out of.
Link was, yeah.
Also, wait.
Does anyone ever think about how basic attention token is a really fucked up name?
Because it kind of sounds like the Stanford Prison Experiment, but like as a token.
You don't have basic attention.
You need this token to have basic attention.
Sorry, I just, I forgot it was even, that was what it stood for.
because people just say,
why has the basic word in there?
It should have been brave,
but here's my 2017 recollection.
I could be like way off base here.
The idea was that it would be the standard
cost of an advertising unit.
Hence,
they were trying to value your attention
for some unit of time.
That's very 1984 though.
Valuing your attention.
Yeah, absolutely.
And they were trying to come up
with like a canonical, like,
you know,
um,
empirical unit for attention.
For like one advertising and
impression. This is a very 2017, like, look, we're going to take this, like, broad concept
and turn it into a token. But in retrospective, it does just really sound, like, you know,
some, like, means of controlling your attention token. Yeah. That was the idea. That was the idea
behind it. I knew, I knew Brandon, so I knew the tomology. I never struck me as that.
It didn't. No, it's not trying to control you. I mean, if they could, that'd be great. It'd be
great business models. I've been totally brainwashed, of course. Brandon controls everything I think.
Clearly, his basic attention is very expensive, yeah.
It's already been bought out.
Disclosure, I'm not a holder of bat.
Okay, okay.
Yeah, bat and raven coin.
This is how you know you're in the bear market
when people bring those names on.
Yeah, right.
I can't see a word on any of these topics.
I'm just so afraid of, yeah.
You never know when people are going to get upset at you.
Yeah, well, that's kind of the theme of the show
is that we just say random stuff and the people get mad at us.
Emin hates Ravencoin and bad.
That's what I got to make sense.
It's going to be your next scandal.
I was just breathing a little bit stuited.
of a relief. That's right. That's right. Well, so actually, here's a question for you. Do you feel like
the beefs that you've gotten into with other founders has been good for you or bad for you?
On the net? Absolutely bad. Absolutely horrible. Really? Of course.
I don't get that impression. Why? I feel like beefs between, I feel like beefs between coins is like
actually, it makes news. It's like, it's like WrestleMania. Right. I found out about you and I
respected you all the way back when you were ripping on Bancor.
Right. Way back in the day. I was like, who is this Cornell professor?
or ripping on the bank where I see it?
Yeah, no, was it on the net?
It's a big negative.
You just make enemies for no reason.
And, you know, I feel compelled to say the things I say
because, you know, I feel like this is the truth as I know it,
and therefore I have to say it.
And then it gets me in hot water,
and then suddenly there's like some kind of altercation.
It's kind of unnecessary.
A lot of these people are people I like, you know.
But sometimes it's just people I really hate,
and they're doing a scam, and then they attack me.
So either way, you know, I've gotten used to it.
But if I could do it over again, I'd keep a low profile.
My personality wouldn't allow this.
But if I could redo my life, I'd be a, you know, go with the flow kind of guy.
That's not me.
I do not believe.
I can't.
You're not selling as well.
I would want to.
What ever happened to Team Rocket?
Team Rocket.
They disappeared.
They did their best.
They did their bit.
Every big movement needs a creation story.
Every big one.
And the biggest gift any group can give you is anonymity.
It's like they give you something, take it or leave it all in the service.
They don't want credit.
They don't want anything else.
Here it is.
And if we like it, we like it.
If you don't, we don't.
So Team Rocket disappeared.
Chose to disappear.
Like, what's Kaiser Soze?
Just ban.
Vanish.
Fair enough.
All right.
Well, move on to the other story that keeps on giving besides the merge,
which is their tornado sanctions.
Oh, yeah.
So I don't know that there's been much specific news,
except the two big items that I saw this one.
week. The first was that Hwabi, the big Asian exchange, delisted every major privacy coin.
So they delisted Zcash, Monaro, Decred, Dash, and the three other ones that I'd never
heard of.
Wait, sorry, decred counts as a privacy coin in 2022?
Sure.
I guess. I don't know. They had some privacy fee. They had what it was.
They had a broken version of like a mimble-wimble additively.
That's right. That's right.
But didn't, like, there were so many bugs.
Mingle Wimble doesn't provide.
Yeah, exactly.
He's grinned still around?
You shouldn't get delisted for that.
For a future you don't have.
Yeah, yeah.
Well, I mean, I guess they stopped
Lightcoin, right?
Lightcoin Incorporated Mimbleb Wemble.
Didn't they?
Like coin's too big to fail.
I guess.
But Lightcoin Foundation Army is big on Twitter now.
That's right.
Yeah.
I don't know.
All I know is Charlie Lee is like,
I was like, just as research,
I was trying to like watch, you know,
normal TV coverage of crypto
because I have no clue what.
people think.
Charlie Lee is on like every single one of these like,
like news channel episodes lately being like talking about the like coin foundation.
I was like they have a foundation that's active.
Wow.
Learning so much about you guys.
You read 4chan, you watch TV.
Like, I don't know what's your guilty player?
I have no idea.
I don't even know.
Fine.
Dealing with long.
I went TikTok all day.
That's my idea.
Lawyers.
Lawyers.
Yeah.
Sue.
Yeah.
Sueing on.
Sure the lawyers be happy
that you're late
because they charged you for being late?
I'll never get sued with.
Well, speaking of lawsuits,
so the other big news in Tornadeland
was that Coinbase is bankrolling
a number of lawsuits against Treasury.
So basically...
Are they separate lawsuits or is it one?
I thought there were several...
Yeah, against Treasury.
For the O-FAC restrictions.
I thought it was one lawsuit
with six plaintiffs.
Oh, there's six plaintiffs.
Oh, I see, I see.
Got, I got, got, okay, that's why I was confused.
So they're backing a lawsuit against Treasury.
There's a number of plaintiffs.
Each of whom, yeah, each of whom had some kind of sympathetic story for,
so they basically did the thing they were supposed to do, which is fine,
sympathetic plaintiffs who have, like, clean stories, not just like, you know, some dude
from North Korea and is like, hey, why are you taking my money away?
It's somebody who's like, one of the stories was a Cordev who was getting paid for something,
and one of their neighbors was like, hey, I heard that you're,
in Ethereum. And
then he was like, huh, I should like use Tornado to
hide the money they're making because this person
apparently was like tracking something I did on chain.
Like some NFT purchase or something. There's some
sort of like this. Also,
I think Preston, this is Preston, right?
I don't recall. I think this is him.
He also had this thing where like there's some point
Vitalik sent him like
a large amount of ETH to pay for
Prism, not for like, and that's
what funded one of these client development
groups. But I think
people inferred that as like he got that and it like
I think that also led to some security things for him
of like people trying to impersonate him and message send
messages to Vitolic to say like send more money
so like he had a lot of good reasons
they were just like people were spoofing his identity a lot
yeah there's you don't have to have a good reason to want financial privacy
right let's just this well you do need to win a court case you need to win the
court case you do need to have good reasons but generally speaking you shouldn't
have to have good reasons but anyway so yeah
Yeah, so it was Preston Van Loon.
And, I mean, the overall picture, so in the last episode, I came out kind of calling out Coinbase and saying that I thought they were going to roll over.
I turned out to be wrong.
So, May Iculpa, congrats to Coinbase for sticking up.
Agreed.
Somebody said that this is the best PR that Coinbase could have possibly done.
And it was surprisingly cheap for how much credibility it won them, and I think it's well deserved.
But somebody else was telling me that they thought actually this was a really bad move by Coinbase.
I should say not a bad move in terms of coinbase for PR purposes, but a bad move with respect to
getting Treasury to back off.
And the way that they put it to me, and I don't know if I agree with this, I don't have enough
context.
I don't know enough about how these kind of things play out.
What they were claiming to me is somebody who spends a lot more time, you know, with
people on Capitol Hill.
I don't know, Robert, you might have a better perspective, is that Treasury is people too.
And when you sue someone, they get mad and they get scared and they dig in and they, like,
you know, really what would have been best from the industry on the whole is to give Treasury a way out
and to, like, help them save face in trying to back off from these things.
It's clearly the reaction that they got was not what they expected.
And there were probably a lot of people scrambling to try to figure out, like, oh, crap, like, everyone seems to be really pissed about this.
What do we do?
Going straight to a lawsuit makes it very, very difficult for them to actually walk it back, if that's, in fact, a possibility.
Now, maybe it's not.
Maybe there are things we don't know about Treasury digging in their feet.
But this is, like, the nuclear option.
is the way they were described to me. I don't know if that is a good assessment.
Yeah, I mean, it's definitely an escalation, right? And, you know, I think it's too early to,
you know, tell whether it's going to be successful or not. I think there's a lot of merits to
the lawsuit that was filed. I think there's a good chance that the arguments come through.
You know, I think from what I've heard that, you know, a lot of the folks in Treasury
didn't necessarily even understand that there was a difference between Tornado and other mixing
services. And they didn't appreciate the difference between a smart contract-based system.
versus a centralized mixer.
And they are radically different,
and that a lot of people are just caught off guard
by the backlash.
And it's hard to say whether it's going to make them more willing
to concede that they were wrong or less.
I would hope that it would be a wake-up call to say,
like, wow, if it's creating this much pushback,
like we clearly didn't do our homework enough on this.
So I'm optimistic that the lawsuit's actually gonna help.
And I don't think it's going to cause anyone to dig in their heels.
I hope that people are able to say, like, you know what?
There wasn't enough homework done.
We thought all mixers were all mixers.
It turns out that, you know, we're getting into base layer, you know, and smart contract censorship here.
And, like, raising issues that were not anticipated at all.
Nobody wants to see North Korea succeed, right?
Like, I don't think anyone's advocating for the illegal uses of it.
You know, it's just a matter of, wow, more care needs to go in.
into making, you know, existential changes to how sanctions work,
going from sanctioning people and businesses to sanctioning autonomous programs.
So I'll bring in some bit of history here.
I'm totally, totally in line with what you said.
So do you guys remember the 90s when, like, the Internet was getting to be bigger and bigger?
And all these forums, including Fortune, were beginning to pop up.
And you could go anywhere and you could say anything.
Senator blah, blah, blah, is jackass or what have you.
And so this really pissed off a lot of people on Capitol Hill.
And there was a lot of talk about one concept that some of your viewers may not have heard about,
but was called the driver's license for the Internet.
There was legislation attempts to mandate a driver's license for the Internet.
And the core reason being that old people on Capitol Hill could not handle other people saying
whatever the hell they want on the Internet.
And so this mobilized everybody, the Internet, you know, the old old,
old IETF crowd, you need the internet engineering task force. Everybody there got mobilized to try
to educate the lawmakers and say, look, there's an ethos associated with the internet, there's
also a technology. These two things don't really allow what you want to have done here.
And if you try to do this, you will not achieve your policy aims. It's a parallel to
the exact situation we have with tornado cash and privacy on blockchains. And in that case,
the techies one, right? We have the internet we have today. It's not censored. One
all enforcement wants to do something, they have the hooks that they need. And it's sort of a
co-evolution, right? They evolved to a point where they got the hooks that they needed and the
technology gave them access in just the way that they wanted. But they end up getting those hooks
from the edge, right? They never had to ban what, what you do on a carrier. Like AT&T never has to look
at your packets to see, you know, they don't listen to your phone conversations to see if you're
doing an illegal convoy, they don't look at your data. And, but now with this tornado cash,
thing, we're going towards a move where somebody has to look at what you're doing on the
blockchain.
So there are great parallels there.
And in this case, on the blockchain side, they stepped outside of historical precedent,
and they got the backlash.
So we'll see how this plays out.
But I do agree that the lawsuit does notch everything up on notch.
Yeah, it's a fascinating analogy.
What do you feel like, you know, from your perspective, what do you feel like it is that the industry
needs to do better in order to get the same kind of, the same kind of community on board with
this idea. They're like, hey, the internet doesn't have this notion of a driver's license
and blockchain shouldn't either. Right. So that's a separate conversation. And I've been
thinking about it a lot. So this is, the blockchain community is strictly smaller than the
internet crowd, right? And there is a very vocal crowd that is anti-blockchain. And some of them are
hardcore techies, too. They're like, I've got my stock options. I've got my cushy job at large
blue chip company, and I hate the blockchain. And they hate it with a passion, right? And it's
really interesting. You see this culture clash. And so what does it take to get all these people
on board to say, look, we're all fighting for the same thing, financial freedom, breaking down
monopolies in even playing field? And so we need to do a lot better in reaching out. We need to do a lot
better at policing ourselves. And the maximalism that came with some of the earlier systems
do not help us, right? This whole, like, we're going to take down governments. There's only
going to be one coin for the entire world, et cetera, that extreme libertarian idealism, et cetera,
it doesn't really win you friends. You really got to admit that there's a bigger world out
there that you need to integrate into. I think, as a group, we need to back down from one of
the core narratives in blockchains, which is, I will build you a single chain to rule
the world. I think people have to admit as an industry, we have to admit it's time to admit that
there can't be a single chain that suits every need. What you build for the U.S. will not satisfy
the people in Europe, will not satisfy the people in China, et cetera, et cetera. So when we were
building Avalanche, that's why we went to this different architecture with multiple chains.
Avalanche is not a single chain. It's not three chains. It's actually a multitude of chains.
So that was part of our vision
And it's an underappreciated fact that that the industry has to grapple with
I guess the other thing about this whole
Concept of suing Treasury and making this to do a big fight
Right like so it's clearly an escalation of what came before
The other thing it brings to mind is that like coinbase seems to be
For whatever reason, right like it feels me like FTCX versus Coinbase
FTX has been super friendly
obviously they got into this spat with the CFTC
when they were doing the hearings about
having this verticalize
I'm sorry? Oh, that's right, that's right.
Oh, yeah, for FDXUS and their insurance stuff.
But I feel like Sam has been very collaborative
with government.
It feels like Coinbase has been like,
I mean, Coinbase like went to the mat
with the SEC over the Coinbase Earn thing.
They are like digging their heels in
on a lot of the listed assets on Coinbase saying like,
hey, if you think these securities come and get it,
like some because there was the
when the SEC issued the
what was the one where they listed like seven tokens
and they said there were securities?
Nine tokens for the insider trading.
That was right.
It was the insider trading case
where they dropped these things
statement that nine of these tokens
were securities that were traded.
Coinbase said we're not going to delist them
unless you're in the U.S.
doesn't have much easier to...
I think being in the U.S. is way...
The FDX has a big U.S. presence
in America.
They have a huge U.S. presence, but, you know...
It's so arms on...
HQ is offshore, you know.
Right, right, right.
You don't have to fight for survival in the same way, I feel.
That's true.
That's the worst case.
You get rid of the U.S. unit, which volume-wise is not.
It's a small, yeah, it's a small portion.
So it's like, I would argue that it reflects that corporate structuring difference.
Like, Coinbase can't get out of that.
They're forever a U.S.
Even if they tried to move, they would just be like a U.S. is and trying to get rid of their system.
All of their team is here.
Yeah.
They're a publicly traded corporation in the United.
Like, they've picked, you know, their jurisdiction.
And, you know, personally, you know, I don't think you should have to, you know, look offshore to, like, be a successful company.
I fully agree with that.
I fully agree with it.
It's such a red flag for me in my book that, you know, a company that's based here, started here, drew its human resources from here ought to be here.
So if somebody's going off, it's a red flag.
if somebody has to go off, you're driving them offshore.
That's another red flag.
It's red flags all around.
But it also, you know, I'm curious about that,
how it came to be that Coinbase,
with such a large U.S. presence,
has less influence on the hill than FDX.
Is it clear that they do, or is it just that
Coinbase is horrible PR?
That's like the thing I've never been able to grapple with.
I can't tell. I think it's pretty clear that we're still a very young industry.
Like the Internet industry, when it first started,
even after having lots of money,
had no idea how to talk to lawmakers
and how to talk to regulators.
So I think there's a learning curve to this stuff.
I think the first mover has the worst time at doing that.
That's also true.
It's like the oldest sibling.
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Yeah, people call, people chill out a little bit.
Because they're like, yeah, we deal with Coinbase,
we know what it's like, you know.
I'm definitely not trying to say, like,
there wasn't some skill or planning in FTX's moves,
but they had the huge benefit of watching Coinbase
fails so many times.
That's true, that's true.
But also, like, the parents chill out a bit
after the first day. That's right. Yeah. I spent a little bit of time talking to lawmakers,
and it's interesting how united the blockchain interested lawmakers in both in Congress and then
Senate, they are. Regardless of which ideology, right? So both Democrats and Republicans,
you know, they get it. And so I was very pleasantly surprised at the level of sophistication
that these people have. I think something in Sam's favor is, I think his parents are lobbyists.
So I think that's part of...
Was there the law professes?
Ah, okay.
Okay.
Law BS.
I see.
All right.
Well done.
Well done.
The show's over.
We're definitely going to put that in the intro reel from now on.
That's a great, it's a great line.
Wow.
I mean, okay, one funny fact of a news article I learned of something I learned this week since we're talking about FTX.
So I guess FTX invested in Skarmucci's recent time.
Scabron.
Oh, yeah.
But then Skybridge invested in FTX.
And it's like there's lots of this type of stuff in crypto,
but this was the most publicly, like, funny, like,
like you go to both the websites.
Yeah, no, I mean, not to be, you know, cynical about it,
but, you know, if you buy 30% of Skybridge for like $30 million,
then direct, you know, $100 million of assets into your own vehicle
that you're charging $2.20 on.
And fees buying on your exchange.
Right.
It's, you basically come out ahead for free.
You know, like, very cynically, I think it was a brilliant investment if it was so self-serving.
I just think it's funny to, it's funny.
People used to be very careful about hiding all these like recursive loops that live in crypto.
This was one of the more blatantly obvious.
Yeah, one of the more obscene.
Have you?
No.
Have you?
I have you?
I don't talk about it.
I don't talk about it.
Okay.
Oh, all right.
I mean, he, I don't know.
how he ended up in this industry.
It seems very random to me.
I don't know what his...
I don't really understand what he brings to the table.
We're growing.
The space is growing.
Everybody wants to be in the crypto industry.
That's true.
He has run a successful conference.
Isn't it right now?
Yes.
Yeah, it's right now.
Yeah.
So it's, you know,
think about this way.
As you go down the level of sophistication
of the investor table,
you have this huge stack that still hasn't come into the space
and you need the,
the people who tell
the narrative on the way down.
Well, the last piece of news, I mean,
did you guys see today that there was a rumor that
Fidelity was going to start directing retail
capital into crypto?
Oh, really? I don't know
if it's founded or unfounded, but I
was reading that on the internet today.
Novo was...
Was this on the Bids for them?
Yeah, this is not a...
For the record, I've not been a huge reader
about... Okay, okay, you just get the digests.
Fidelity is a strong group. I would
not be surprised. That's good to hear.
So the other thing, Torino, that I've seen, it's not so much that the big folks moved in and then the smaller fish are coming in.
So, first of all, when I was a professor, all these funds that were coming into crypto would come to us.
And they'd be like, hey, we need some academics, some trustworthy individuals who can tell us what we need to pay attention to as we make investments into crypto.
So I knew hedge funds were coming six months before they were coming in.
And in a similar fashion, I started seeing really large but very very very, very much.
slow players, starting with Canadian retirement funds, start to go into crypto.
Investing in Celsius.
You make the real.
We're saying Canadian and Pesipathe by all that.
Yeah.
A great track record.
That's true.
But there are large funds and sources of money that are coming into the space, even in a
bare market.
I just mean, but those people rely on these, this like other layer of fees industry like
Cambridge Associates and people to like direct them.
to what to invest.
And like, that's what
that's Sgaramucci is.
He's like, he's the,
he's the,
he's like the,
he's like the Jepetto
below some other Jepetto.
All right.
That's a good description.
Okay.
All right.
So,
last word before we wrap.
Let's say September 15th,
the merge goes through,
it is all successful.
What do you do the day after the merge?
Robert, what do you do?
Eat steak.
Hopefully I,
are you vegetarian?
No.
Oh, you're not.
I was going to say hopefully I already was just drunk.
Oh, you're going to just be drunk.
You're hangover.
Yeah, hangover.
So you're like alcohol, your blood alcohol levels,
like it converge with like the difficulty level.
Yeah, exactly.
And then at that point, it's like, oh, man.
Robillopics.
That's perfect.
That's perfect.
I was probably partying with Tarun.
You know, I want the merge to be done.
I want the merge to be done.
I'd stop up.
Robert will invite us for steak.
We'll both come over, hungover,
and not be able to eat any.
Steak and eggs.
How about that?
Okay, that sounds good.
I'd stuck up on food because after the merge,
like these proof of stake systems have failure modes
that are different from proof of work.
Proof of work is a very robust, very well-understood technology.
Once you switch to proof of steak,
I can tell you first hand that it is not the world's easiest.
And you can have, and Solana people will tell you the same thing, right?
You can have loops in there.
You can have recursive feedback loops that cause problems for you.
So I'd stuck up on popcorn.
It's going to be interesting.
Okay, okay.
Oh, I thought you were saying stock up on food because the economy goes out.
I think I was like, oh, man, we're like, we're like, stock up on food.
Both on lockdown, if proof of steak doesn't work.
Yeah, that's right.
It'll work.
It'll work for sure.
Yeah, you just start, like, all the plumbing goes out.
Like, the lights are in the lights, and then it's pretty soon.
The world doesn't run on Ethereum yet.
Yeah, it's getting there.
It's getting there.
Except in Dubai.
That's the, the smart city stuff.
Do you remember the Simpsons episode on the only Y2K?
where like Y2K hits and the streetlights are shooting lasers at people
we're not quite big.
You know, this week actually, speaking of this,
I just learned about the 2038 problem.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah, I just learned about this this week.
It's like the next Y2K is 20308.
This is actually serious.
Yeah, this is really serious.
January 9th, I believe, 2038, like all time is calculated, you know, since 1970.
And we start to get an overflow on January 9.
32-bit time people are.
Get out of it.
Get out of here.
Get out of it.
The beginning of the Unix epoch was 1970.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And so it runs, you overrun the 32-bit counter in 2030.
How many people are using 32-big-counter?
The elevators will stop up.
I mean, a lot of old shit.
And they'll drop you.
A lot of embedded.
And stuff of another.
Okay, all right.
So, I mean, I'm not going to survive.
You don't want to be in a city.
Exactly.
On January 9th, yeah, yeah.
Go out into the woods.
That's why I took it all over again.
Yeah, I got it.
I got it.
It'll be fine.
Good.
What do you think
is probability
the merge fails?
Zero percent.
No, no, no, no.
You were just talking.
Let me be fine.
Zero.
Exactly.
Zero percent failure of the merge
on whenever Thursday,
whenever it is.
And I would say
100% expectation,
I would say,
of a liveliness failure
in the next six months.
That's my guess.
That's a good prediction market.
Let's see.
But I'll buy your...
But I'm hoping, obviously, that I don't want this misinterpreted.
I want it to, of course, succeed.
Yeah.
So, but I do know how hard these systems are to build.
So let's see how it plays out.
And they have had liveness failures on TestNet.
On TestNet, without any financial incentives to play funny games.
Yeah.
Yeah.
If anything, maybe an incentive not to play the games, if you know of vulnerability,
pocket it, and then hit it on Mainnet and short the coin.
I don't think anyone's really that sophisticated, but we'll see.
the people who are that sophisticated are nice
people. I think they tell them. I think the people
who are that sophisticated are going to play like
MV games instead.
Yeah. But the real thing, MEV
game is like if the POW fork
even kind of gets alive and just like
that would be the king of all that's going to be so fun.
I mean, I really want someone to
just make a bridge to
like the POW people, their way of
saving face and becoming a layer two
is like, oh, here's a bridge that we forked
that you can bridge too and like
that bridge will be the ultimate MVP magnet.
A terrifying piece of infrastructure to run that bridge.
Yeah.
Okay, Terros was one nodes.
Fair enough.
Fair enough.
Okay.
Well, we see what that worked out.
I mean, I don't expect anything less than similar for this fork based on
their discord.
Yeah.
Okay.
Well, I think we're at time.
Thank you very much, Goon, for coming on, sharing your wisdom and your optimism and your
optimism about everything going on.
That's it from us.
See you guys in a couple weeks.
