Unchained - Why Financial Advisors Are So Excited About a Spot Bitcoin ETF - Ep. 572

Episode Date: November 21, 2023

According to surveys of financial advisors, only 12% are currently recommending that clients invest in Bitcoin, while 47% of advisors personally own Bitcoin and a whopping 77% say they are waiting for a spot Bitcoin ETF to become available so they can offer it to their clients.  On this episode of Unchained, Ric Edelman, founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals and author of “The Truth About Crypto,” explains how this should all lead to high demand once the first spot Bitcoin ETFs become available, although it will take some time for them to allocate. Edelman also discusses how FTX’s implosion impacted advisor perceptions of crypto, why investors have not been that excited by crypto futures ETFs, and which Bitcoin ETF issuers he believes are likely to be the big winners. Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Stitcher, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform. Show highlights: how regulatory confusion keeps financial advisors away from recommending Bitcoin to their clients how the collapse of FTX affected financial advisors’ interest in crypto, according to Ric how the knowledge level of financial advisors about Bitcoin is "extraordinarily low" why 77% of investment advisors are willing to buy a spot Bitcoin ETF why there wasn't a huge interest from advisors after the launch of Bitcoin futures ETFs the percentage of client portfolios that he expects they will allocate to BTC why Ric thinks there won't be huge inflows immediately after the approval of spot BTC ETFs how financial advisors will decide whose ETF to buy, among the 12 potential issuers why he believes spot Ethereum ETFs have great growth potential why he thinks tokenization might be the "next big thing" that will increase institutional activity Take the Unchained 2023 survey! Unchained is doing its annual survey. Let us know what we’re doing well, how we can improve, what you’d like to see more of, and generally, how we can serve you better. The survey also helps us find sponsors whose products and services would appeal to you. Plus, participating gives you an opportunity to win Unchained merch! Five randomly selected respondents will receive one free Unchained t-shirt or mug — your choice. Click here to participate. Thanks so much! https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/unchained2023 Thank you to our sponsors! LayerZero Popcorn Network Guest: Ric Edelman, Founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals Previous appearance on Unchained: Financial Advisors Control $5 Trillion in Investor Wealth. Are They Buying Bitcoin? Links Previous coverage on spot Bitcoin ETFs: How Much Money Will Flow Into Bitcoin ETFs? Here’s One Projection Why a Spot Bitcoin ETF Will Probably Launch No Later Than January 10 Why It Looks Like BlackRock Could Win America’s First Spot Bitcoin ETF The Chopping Block: Are We Back? The 'Low IQ' Response to the Potential Spot Bitcoin ETF Unchained:  BlackRock Files for Spot Ethereum ETF The Bitcoin ETF Is a Double-Edged Sword Bitcoin ETFs Explained: What Are They & How Do They Work? CoinDesk: BlackRock Bitcoin ETF in August Got on DTCC Site That Just Belatedly Moved Markets Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Not only do 47% of advisors personally owned Bitcoin, but 77% of advisors in the last survey we've done on this, and that we have seen others doing this, show that they are waiting for the spot Bitcoin ETF to become available so that they can provide this to their clients. Hi, everyone. Welcome to Unchained, your no-hype resource for all things crypto. I'm your host, Laura Shin, author of The Cryptopians. I started covering crypto eight years ago, and as a senior editor of Forbes, was the first mainstream meter reporter to cover cryptocurrency full-time. This is in November 21st, 2023 episode of Unchained. Defy just got way easier with VaultCraft. Popcorn's no-code DeFi Toolkit for building, deploying, and monetizing automated yield strategies. From institutional service providers

to Defi DGens, anyone can use VaultCraft to supercharge their crypto with custom cross-chain yield strategies. more on vaulcraft.io. The game has changed. The Google Cloud Oracle built for layer zero is now securing every layer zero message by default. Their custom end-to-end solution sets itself up to bring its world-class security to Web3 and establish itself as the HTTPS within Layer Zero messaging. Visit Layer Zero.network to learn more. Today's guest is Rick Edelman, founder of the Digital Assets Council of financial professionals and author of The Truth About Crypto. Welcome, Rick. Great to be with you, Laura.

Thanks. Excited to have you. Spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely launch by January 10th, and that will make it a lot easier for non-native crypto investors to invest in Bitcoin. You are a sort of guru to financial advisors, and they are seen as the gatekeepers to a vast majority of the wealth in the U.S. I think it's something like 80%. So what are you hearing from that community?

are they reacting to this? Are they paying attention? Are they looking forward to it? Is it just something not on their radar? What are you hearing? All the above. Advisors are very much paying attention to this, very anxiously awaiting it and very excited about it. Financial advisors have been slow to the party. They have been largely disengaged from the crypto conversation of the past decade. Initially, when you took a look at Bitcoin five or 10 years ago, you looked at its price volatility, and it was easy to dismiss this as either a fat or a fraud. And there had been a lot of frauds, as we painfully know too well. So it was easy for a financial advisor to ignore this as beanie babies or as tulip balls.

But over the past five years in particular, there has been an incredible array of development and research in the blockchain technological space. A huge amount of new applications that have risen that are useful in global commerce. we see institutional engagement at an unprecedented level, major banks using blockchain technology. We see pension funds and endowments investing in Bitcoin and other digital assets. And financial advisors have been paying attention to this. They've also been getting increasing numbers of questions from their own clients who have been seeing what's happening in the news and hearing about Bitcoin often from their children.

And the clients are asking their advisors, what is Bitcoin? Should I buy it? How much? where do I do it? And advisors have been largely forced to say, sorry, I can't help you. Because there hasn't been an effective product available to them that they can provide to their clients. If you want to buy Bitcoin, you generally have to go to a crypto exchange like Coinbase. That's new and different. It's cumbersome. It's complicated. It's a little intimidating. And most of these exchanges don't work with the financial advisory community. It's really meant for an individual investor to connect directly with the platform. So advisors really weren't even in a position to help their clients with those

exchanges, even if they wanted to. And their firms have compliance officers. And those compliance departments have generally told their advisors don't get involved because we don't know what the rules are. There's insufficient regulatory clarity. And so for all these reasons, Laura, financial advisors have been like courses in the starting gate of a race. They want to get engaged, they want to participate, but there is an easy and effective methodology to do so. Now, suddenly, over the past few months, come along the idea, the prospect, that these Bitcoin ETFs are going to come onto the market.

The excitement rose this past summer, as you know, when BlackRock filed an application to launch one of these ETFs. BlackRock, of course, the world's largest money manager, the big, biggest offerer of ETFs in the country. Only once has a BlackRock ETF been denied out of about 500 ETFs that they've

tried to bring the market. And after BlackRock filed their application, ten other fund companies have done the same thing. The SEC then lost its lawsuit against Grayscale, where the court told the SEC that it acted capriciously and arbitrarily

in its denial of Grayscale's request to create an ETF. So everybody is seeing the stars aligning, that everything is coming together in final fashion that we are imminently, like maybe next week, maybe by the end of the year, we're going to see these ETFs come to market. Advisors are excited about this for a couple of simple reasons. Number one, advisors are increasingly acknowledging that this is a legitimate asset class, worthy of inclusion in a diversified long-term portfolio.

And number two, most importantly, these ETFs make it easy. Everybody's familiar with ETFs. It's the most popular investment vehicle on the country. They are low cost. They're highly liquid. They're completely transparent. You can buy them in an ordinary brokerage account at Schwab or E-Trade or Merrill Lynch or Fidelity.

They're simple and easy and convenient. Clients use them all the time. They're highly familiar with them and they're not scary. So the advent of an asset we want to be. buy in a wrapper that we're familiar with using, yeah, there's going to be a lot of interest, Laura, to answer your question. When these ETFs come out, you're going to see a lot of advisory firms making them available to their advisors who extend to their clients. This is so interesting because I actually expected you to give a slightly more measured response.

And maybe I'm just projecting because my financial advisor is, I mean, I don't know. I haven't talked to them for like half a year, but, you know, has tended to be so much more skeptical. And I feel like you were really kind of early amongst financial advisors and kind of understanding that this was a new asset class. And so I was curious even to hear just what you, you know, what your experience has been with that trajectory because I imagine that when you first got interested that a, you know, much smaller portion of the financial advisor community was interested. So can you talk a little bit about that evolution? And if you could put kind of a percentage figure on the proportion of advisors who are currently interested in a

spot Bitcoin ETF now, I'd love to hear that number. Yeah, well, right now, according to the industry data, only 12% of financial advisors are recommending Bitcoin to their clients. So there's very little engagement. And the reason, as I mentioned, predominantly, is regulatory confusion. Many advisors are prohibited by their firms. Even if the advisor wants to do it and has allowed to do it, the products are pretty cumbersome for the most part. They require the advisor in many cases to develop a new tech stack that forces them to retrain their staff and forces them to reculturalize their clients. You know, it's saying to a client, here's something completely new and different that you've never had to do with us before, a new set of paperwork, a new set of forms,

a new organization we have to deal with like an SMA platform or TAMP provider. And it's just confusing and it's cumbersome and it's complicated. And let's face it. most advisors who do engage in Bitcoin are only allocating one or two, maybe three percent of assets to it. Well, you're going to go through all that hassle and headache for a lousy 2% allocation? It's not worth a bother for most advisors. So only 12% are bothering to do it. The early adopters, as you mentioned, of which I'm one, I've been in this space since 2012. So yeah, most advisors are sitting on the sidelines saying, yeah, it's interesting or not. But we're not. But even if it's interesting, I'm not even going to waste my time dealing with it. Who cares? Set it on the side.

But simultaneously, two other statistics, 47% of advisors personally own Bitcoin, which means they get it. They understand that this is an innovative technology, that it has the potential for delivering outsized investment returns, and they're personally investing. Well, how are they going to explain to their client? When the client finally says, should I buy Bitcoin, what do you think? think, by the way, do you own it? For the advisor to say, oh, yeah, I've owned it for years. I just never told you to buy it. Investment advisor credibility goes out the window.

You might have an angry client. You might even lose a client over that. So advisors realize they're having to deal with that conflict that I ought it, but I'm not recommending it for you. That's a bad problem. Secondarily, not only do 47% of advisors personally owned Bitcoin, but 77% of advisors in the last survey we've done on this and that we have seen others doing this. show that they are waiting for the spot Bitcoin ETF to become available so that they can provide

this to their clients because every compliance department will say okay to that product because it's just an ETF like other thematic ETFs. We use ETFs for investing in computer technology, oil and gas, gold and precious metals, emerging markets. This will simply be blockchain and digital assets. It's not a big deal. It's just an ETF. The fact that it is thematically emphasizing blockchain is a no braider for a compliance department. So we are anticipating that while a lot of advisors are taking the same wait-and-see or dismissive attitude about this, very quickly, FOMO will set in. As Bitcoin's price continues to rise, it's already up over the last month, 35%, it's already up 110% year-to-date. Eventually, investment advisors are going to realize they are

missing out. Once these ETS come to the market, you've got 10 ETF providers, 11 now, that are going to be competing for assets. They're all going to be engaging in extensive advertising and marketing campaigns. Those investors are going to see it, and those investors are going to contact their advisors saying, I keep seeing ads from all these companies promoting this new ETF. Which one should I buy? Should I buy at all? How much should I invest? How can we do this? Can you help me? The advisors will quickly discover, they don't have much choice. They're going to have to assist their clients. Otherwise, they run the risk of losing clients and assets. So advisors, yeah, I'm not at all surprised, Laura, for you to suggest that a lot of advisors continue to show skepticism.

The FOMO, the fear of missing out on this new opportunity is going to literally force a lot of people into the marketplace creating the adoption that has so far eluded the crypto industry. And I have to ask because while it sounds like they have a positive view of Bitcoin and crypto, obviously last year we had a big black eye for the industry when FTX collapsed. And because I'm very familiar with all the kind of politics and the nuance of the crypto community, I knew that actually the crypto community had kind of turned on Sam Bankman-Fried in the month before the collapse. And they sort of felt like he kind of didn't align with their values.

But to the outside world, he was the face of crypto with all his ads, you know, showing up in the halls of Congress and around D.C. And so, you know, while the crypto community kind of sort of rejected him before the collapse, you know, it's taken the mainstream a lot longer to not think of him as the face of crypto. In fact, I think many people still do. So I wondered how that saga affected the view that financial advisors had about crypto. Yeah, I think you're absolutely right about it. all of that. Sam Beckman-Freed saga and that of FTX, not just a black eye. It was a knife to the heart in the crypto community. It was horrific. As it turns out, Sam was the Bernie Madoff of crypto. We know that Bernie Madoff was a titan in the stock market. He was chair NASDAQ. He was a huge

figure in the securities industry. And then everybody realized he was nothing but a con artist and a losing billions and billions of dollars and ending up with a life sentence in prison. Sam is the same thing. He had nothing to do with crypto. He was just a con man. And whereas Bernie used stocks to perpetrate his fraud, Sam used crypto to perpetrate his. So yeah, everybody is aghast and horrified at this. And because he was the face of crypto, he was so prominent. His demise has been a rug pull for the entire crypto community, where a lot of people who had been favorable and enthusiastic and supportive pulled back and said, you know what,

if that's all crypto is, then maybe we should rethink our interest in this. So, yeah, this slowed down the crypto development and the crypto engagement levels, not just among investors, but among institutions, among academics, and among government officials, both regulatory and legislative. So, yeah, this was a huge setback.

We were aghast. Everybody was shocked. And we are so thankful, quite frankly, we're thrilled to death that he was convicted on all seven counts and that he is facing life in prison. And not only was he convicted, this is what's really interesting. It took weeks, weeks for Elizabeth Holmes to be convicted of, fraud in the Theranus case. It took years for her to go to trial and get convicted. Sam was brought to arrest and conviction in months. He was in a three-week trial and convicted. The jury reached their

verdict literally within minutes. When you take into consideration, when a jury goes back, I don't know if you ever sat on a jury. I have, and it's kind of fun. I love. I love this part of American justice. It takes an hour or two for everybody to get their act together in the jury room. I, who are you? You know, just to clarify, I mean, the trial was about five weeks, and it did take them a few hours, but you're right, it was very fast. From the time the jury went to coming out, it was a few hours. But in the jury room itself, I'll bet they didn't spend much more than 15 minutes reaching their conclusions on the seven counts. And then they come back. It took like four and a half hours end, but you're right, there was like a dinner break and whatever.

or so. This is astonishingly quick, which means the evidence was incredibly compelling. This guy was a blatant crook. And so I believe that we're going to turn around in the future. We're going to look back on the day that Sam was convicted. That's our March 9-09, meaning that if you look back at the credit crisis of 2008, March 9, 2009 was the market low of that crisis. And the stock market skyrocketed from March 9 of 09 to the present. I think we're going to turn around and say in the world of crypto that the date of Sam's conviction will prove to be the market low of Bitcoin. And we're thrilled that he's out of the picture and that he's gone and that he's getting his comeuppance so that we can return our attention, get rid of the Sam Bankman-Fried FTCS headlines,

and get back to the conversation of blockchain technology, its commercial use in commerce around the world, and the benefits that are offers for investors. That's what we need to be talking about. And finally, once again, we're able to do exactly that. But do you see that financial advisors understand that he was the Bernie made off of crypto? Or are they thinking that he still is the face of crypto and that that debacle reflects something about crypto? I think that those who are paying any attention at all have realized over the past several months that he was a crook, he was a con artist, had really nothing to do with the underlying technology. But there are often, you know, two large groups, crypto haters, crypto-sceptics. and when you have a preconceived notion or a notion that you developed 10 years ago and you haven't

looked since to see if your notion needs to be updated or revised, they're going to continue to cite Sam. When he gets sentenced in March, that'll create another rash of headlines. Crypto-haters will use that as more evidence of why this should be avoided. But by the time we get to March, when the Bitcoin halving is only a month or so away, I think there are going to be other issues going on, not least of which we're going to see, I believe a significant further increase in the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets. We're going to see the ETS performing very well. We're going to see more and more announcements such as that by Disney this week, that they are about to launch NFTs. We're going to continue to

see more engagement, more adoption by regulators, legislators, legislators, institutional investors, by extension, investment advisors and consumers. And those who continue to point to Sam Bankman Fried will look as at a step as people who today look at Bernie Madoff is a reason not to buy stocks. Well, so, you know, earlier when I asked you about the interests that advisors have in Bitcoin, one of the reasons that you cited was actually FOMO. So I was curious kind of what their level of knowledge is about Bitcoin and how it works. You know, when they kind of come up with their investment thesis, is it something very simple and basic? Like, oh, it's a risky speculative asset. therefore will allocate 1%, or something slightly more sophisticated, like, oh, it's digital gold?

Or is it something even more sophisticated where they kind of understand things like the security of it or the novelty of how it's decentralized or just what is their level of kind of knowledge around Bitcoin? The knowledge level is extraordinarily low. I do training seminars constantly at DACFP. We do webinars and live events. we created the CBDA designation, which is listed as a professional designation by FINRA. And what does that stand for?

A certified in blockchain and digital assets. It's an online course. Laura, you're on our faculty. Oh, that's what I did. I knew I did something for you and I could remember what it was. That's exactly right. You created a module for us and you're on our faculty in that course. And yours is one of the most popular modules in the program, by the way. You did a great job. Oh, thanks. And we teach financial advisors and their back office operations to understand what this technology is and how it applies to practice management. And when I do a lot of these training sessions, remember I said about half of advisors personally on Bitcoin. So in a training session of 100 advisors, I'll say, raise your hand if you're on Bitcoin.

Half the hands go up. And then I say, those of you who are on Bitcoin, keep your hand raised. If you are able, if you are capable of explaining to a client what is business. Bitcoin, all the hands go down. Even though they own it, they really struggle to explain what it is. And that's not good. So you're right. Some simply say, oh, it's a new asset class. Let's diversify into it. It's very volatile. It's very unpredictable. We don't know what the regulations are going to be in the future. So let's minimize the allocation to protect ourselves. That's one answer. And it's not a bad answer. Second answer is it's digital goal. That is debatable.

It is an incomplete answer, but it's a good soundbite. And it's not totally wrong. People buy gold. They've been dying it for 5,000 years as a store of value as an inflation hedge because they believe over long periods, the price will rise. You could make the same arguments about Bitcoin. But some people, the vast majority, quite frankly, of advisors simply cannot explain it at all, whether they on it or not.

They really don't understand the investment argument, the investment, thesis. They don't understand the portfolio construction or the investment opportunities that exist. Many people think the only way to buy Bitcoin is to literally go buy Bitcoin. They're completely unaware that there are SMAs and TAMs. There are proxy stocks, that there are qualified IRA custodians, that there are crypto ETFs, futures ETFs. There are short futures if you want to bet against it. There are such a wide array of ways that you can engage with your clients in a manner that fits your investment style, your practice management. And that's what we teach. We're not trying to persuade people to buy Bitcoin. Our attitude is you need to become fluent in

Bitcoin, just like you're fluent in annuities. You might hate annuities, what you understand them. You know how they work. You can explain them. That's what you ought to be able to do with digital assets because it's a real asset class that is gaining attention and curiosity among investors. So I think you're absolutely right that many are not engaging. partly because they don't understand it. And that makes sense. You shouldn't invest in anything that you don't understand. And there haven't been too many outlets available. Yours is one of the only ones, and frankly, my favorite, for people to understand, learn, develop, and stay a prize. That's what I love best about the work you do, Laura, is the daily updates you provide the community as to what's going

on, the latest conversations and developments. It's quick and easy way for people to do this. and why I talk you up all the time and why I was so thrilled that you joined our faculty for our CBDA designation. And just quickly, because you've used these acronyms a couple times, SMA stands for a separately managed account. Sorry, I'm talking to a market. Yes, if you're a financial advisor, you know this. An SMA is a separately managed account.

Think of an ETF or a mutual fund. We all know what those are. But when you buy shares of an ETF, you own the same exact investment as everyone else. who owns that ETF? An SMA, picture it as an ETF with only one investor. An investment advisor would give you an SMA and can customize what it invests in. So the holdings of your investment are crafted just for you. This allows the investment advisor to customize the holdings. They can create tax strategies and increase or decrease the risk just re-in-your-in-your-needs. SMAs separately managed accounts are very popular with investment advisors because they are a customizable

version of an ETF. And at TAMP, a turnkey asset management program, is also very popular with advisors for the same reasons. It creates a wrapper through which the advisor can craft an investment strategy on a total turnkey basis, meaning that it's a simple platform that allows them to handle the entire gamut of the investment management process. So for the client, it's seamless, it's simple, it's easy, it's one account they look at, but it allows the advisor to manage the assets on a comprehensive way. So SMAs and TAMPs, very popular with advisors, and most advisors don't know that there are now crypto-sms, that there are crypto-TAMPs. And when they discover that,

You know, with funds that portfolios being created by Franklin Templeton and BlackRock and Global X and Bitwise, they get really excited that they can do for their clients with crypto, the same thing they do for their clients with stocks. Okay. So it's just fascinating because if the advisors have a pretty low level of knowledge around Bitcoin, but, you know, 77% are interested in buying the spot Bitcoin ETF. is this then largely driven by demand from their clients? Like, do you think that the clients have more knowledge about Bitcoin than the advisors?

Or is everybody operating on FOMO or what is going on here? Lots of different reasons. So it's all the above. In many cases, the advisors are really into this. Like I said, half of them personally on it. They would love a way to provide access to it for their clients. In some cases, their clients are asking them about it because their client's children got engaged in crypto, you know, way back when. Let's remember that 52 million Americans own Bitcoin

today. That's around 25% of the population. And many of them, you could even argue most, are affluent consumers because you're not going to buy investments unless you have the assets to do so. So investment advisors are discovering more and more that their clients own Bitcoin or other digital assets. These clients did it without the help of their advisor, often without the knowledge of their advisor. The joke I give advisors in training is that your clients own Bitcoin the same way your teenagers are drinking beer. They just don't want you to know. And so advisors are beginning to discover that their clients are doing it. They're doing it without the advisors' help or engagement. And that's reducing the value of the advisor. It's reducing the credibility of the advisor.

So if the advisor wants to maintain the vital role with the client that they have traditionally held, they need to engage and embrace. They need to say to the client, why are you buying Bitcoin elsewhere? Let me do it for you and include it in the broader portfolio that I provide. I'll be able to give you all of my other services, rebalancing and dollar cost averaging and tax loss harvesting and adding it to the diversification. Why are you managing it on your own when you've turned over the rest of assets to me. So advisors can improve their client relationship. They can increase their assets

under management, which increases their fees, and they can improve the level of service they're giving their client. So advisors are realizing this is a business building tool that whether, even if you separate the investment thesis from crypto, this is a way to improve your value to your client, since you have so many clients who already are buying it. And so for all of these reasons, The client's asking about it, the advisor is interested in it, you're going to see more and more engagement. And just wait for Bitcoin to get back to 40,000, 50,000, 60,000. That's when FOMO is really going to set in.

Yeah. Well, one thing that's interesting is, as you noted earlier, we've already had Bitcoin futures ETFs for a couple years. Was there much interest in those? And did you see advisors investing in those? No, there wasn't all that much interest. And if you look at the assets that these funds hold, you know, it's okay, it's nothing exciting. There was a lot of hype when they came out because people looked at

Bitcoin ETF and got excited. They forgot about the word futures that was inside. It was a Bitcoin futures ETF. And people began pretty quickly to realize there's a world of difference between a futures ETF and a spot ETF. The simple way I explain this is that if you talk to the overwhelming majority of advisors, and I'm saying 90% or more, they, don't trade futures in the stock market on behalf of their clients. Well, if they're not going to trade futures in stocks, why would they suddenly trade futures in crypto? So futures are more cumbersome, they're more complicated, they're more expensive than buying the actual asset. So advisors are not really terribly interested in futures because it's not something they deal with ordinarily anyway.

The spot ETF, however, is totally different. And that is why there is a wide expectation that there will be a huge level of interest in the spot Bitcoin ETF that didn't occur for the futures ETF. All right. So in a moment, we're going to talk about what the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs will look like. But first, a quick word from the sponsors who make this show possible. The game has changed.

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Conditions apply. Back to my conversation with Rick. So, you know, earlier we talked about how they're probably just going to allocate some small portion. But, you know, at this moment, do you see them kind of having a theory around how Bitcoin could fit into their client's wider portfolios? Yeah, the general attitude is low single digits. In my book, The Truth About Crypto, which debuted at number one on Amazon, I argue for a 1% asset allocation. And sometimes people are surprised at that. If I'm so optimistic and bullish about this sector, why allows me 1%?

The main reason is that 1%, if I'm wrong, if Bitcoin blows up, becomes worthless, 1% won't hurt you. It won't interfere with your client's ability to achieve financial. security. So it's low threat. Number two, we've seen incredible outsized price performance by Bitcoin and other digital assets. A 1% allocation can have a material impact on the overall results of the portfolio. So the risk-reward ratio is really good. If you look at Sortino, Sortino ratio, or the Sharp ratio, or standard deviation, or max drawdown, all of these measurements that financial advisors routinely use as part of modern portfolio theory, you discover that the efficient frontier, the risk-reward ratio of adding just 1%, 2% of crypto to a portfolio is really

additive to a client's account. It's a wonderful combination. You improve returns while lowering risk. So that's why I say just 1%. And I'm not the only one. Yale did a study, and they concluded that even if you believe Bitcoin will outperform by 200% a year, you only need a 6% allocation. The CFA Institute did a report. They concluded that you should hold 2.5% to 5% allocation. So everybody who studies this is pretty much an agreement. My book

has a couple of chapters on the investment thesis and how do you value Bitcoin, etc. But low single digits is what it comes down to. This way you are improving the client diversification. You're improving the efficient frontier, you are providing them the exposure and the opportunity that the asset class offers while giving them downside protection because let's face it, it's still a new and emerging market class, there is still regulatory uncertainty. We don't know what the adoption rate's going to be. We don't know the market competition environment. There's still a lot of uncertainties. So while I am very optimistic and very bullish, let's temper that with a measured approach for protection.

And then how often do you recommend that people rebalance their portfolios or that advisors rebalance client portfolios? Yeah, there are two schools of thought on this. The first school of thought is you should rebalance your crypto allocation the same way you rebalance the rest of the portfolio. Many advisors do this on a quarterly basis. Others do it annually. At Element Financial, when I was running the largest REA in the country, we did a daily

rebalancing review. So however you rebalance, you should just do that with crypto routinely. That's the predominant school of thought. Don't treat crypto any different from stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, oil, foreign assets, etc. There's another point of view, which is that crypto is projected to be such an outperforming asset for the next five or ten years. Don't rebalance it at all. Hold it. This is where you heard the phrase Hoddle, HODL, I'll hold on for dear life or diamond hands. We're going to keep it forever. There are certain folks in the crypto community who believe that you should never rebalance

because rebalancing involves selling periodically as the price rises. So your choice, do it whichever way you wish with the advice of your financial advisor. Yeah. I mean, the reason that I had to ask that was because I have interviewed so many crypto people and their lives completely changed because they got in early on whatever coin it might be. And then suddenly it ballooned to some huge percentage of their net worth. And so, you know, and that was even starting with a small allocation, which is why I thought, hmm, I wonder how the financial advisor community will go about this.

So then let's assume that, you know, just for simplicity's sake, because the ETFs could launch any day, literally, but January 10th, I guess, is the latest date that at least Bloomberg analysts think will be the day that they go. So on that day, whatever date this is, how do you think the community will react? You know, there have been, for instance, when the Bitcoin futures ATF launched, that was the quickest ETF to reach a billion dollars. It was just in a few days. And do you think we'll see that kind of same rush to get into the spot Bitcoin ETF? or do you think it will be different because we'll have, you know, there's 12 issuers that are applying for this. So, you know, I don't know whether you think it'll be a slower rollout or

is there even enough infrastructure to like make this happen or what are your thoughts on day one? So on day one, you are going to see a significant amount of assets go in, but it's not going to sustain at that rate. You're going to get the early adopters who are going to jump in. No question about it. What is actually more likely to occur is that it's going to to take months and even years rather than days and weeks. And the reason is simply the logistic process that investment advisors go through to implement a new investment opportunity. So the first thing that has to happen is the compliance department has to approve the use of the product. That means they're going to need time to evaluate the product and to create a swim lanes. They have to

establish policies and guidelines of the usage of the product by their financial advisors and their firms. That isn't overnight. That isn't generally instantaneous. Second, simultaneously, the investment committee has to figure out which of these 11 ETFs they want to make available to the advisors in their firms. So you've got to do diligence process going on on the product while you have a compliance process going on for approval. These take a little time. Now, Smaller firms can act with an extreme agility. They can do these approvals on day one. Some of them are already in process because there's expectation these products are coming,

so they're already working on both of those elements so that they can go to market as quickly as possible. The sooner you go to market, the general theory, the better off you and your clients are. So some will be very agile. But others, the bigger you get, the more bureaucratic you get, Wall Street, wirehack. houses, you know, the big national brokerage firms, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, these big, huge firms, generally, they won't approve of an ETF until it has $100 million in assets because they want to know that the ETF has sufficient liquidity,

that it can handle inflows and outflows of client requests. So they're going to, by nature, by caution, probably be the slowest to make the products available to their advisor. in their firms. So it'll range. So what you'll discover is the young, small, independent advisors will be more agile. They'll jump in pretty quick. The bigger firms will come in later. And along the way, as more and more attention grows, as Bitcoin's price rises, as a result of the flow of assets, you'll see more and more engagement and a steady rise. By the time you turn around after a year or two, you're going to see massive amounts of money, tens of billions of dollars. in these ETS. Which of them? I don't know. Are we going to need all 10, 11 of them? Are they all going to

survive? We'll see. I think you're going to discover a few of them are the big winners, and a few of the others may end up disappearing due to lack of market interest. Well, that was actually going to meet my next question. So I'm going to list the 12. And you can tell me if there are certain ones that you think will be winners over the others. So there's obviously Black Rock, as we mentioned, Fidelity, Wisdom Tree, Invesco, Galaxy, Wise Origin, Vanek, BitWise, Belkary, 21 shares with Arc, GlobalX, and then, of course, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust over to an ETF. So any thoughts? And you didn't mention Franklin Templeton. They've got one too. Oh, a 13th. Remember I said earlier that the problem in the old days with crypto in terms of

advisor adoption is that advisors found it cumbersome and difficult and awkward to include crypto in their portfolio because they had to build a new tech stack. They had to modify their practice to accommodate crypto and it was just not worth the hassle or the effort. Advisors aren't going to do that. They are going to have crypto adopt to them so that they can easily use it in their practice. Advisors are already using ETFs. They use them all the time, routinely in their practice. Their clients are highly familiar with ETFs and enjoy them a lot for all the reasons we cited earlier, which means that advisors already have their favored ETF providers. So if you're an advisor already doing

business with ETFs, you're going to turn to that ETF provider. And if they're offering a Bitcoin ETF, you'll probably simply use theirs. And that means BlackRock, which is the largest provider with I shares, Fidelity, which is a multi-trillion dollar, I think it's three trillion in assets. Franklin Templeton, which is 1.3 trillion in assets, these are three of the biggest ETF providers in the country who are already working with hundreds of thousands of advisors. They are naturally going to have an advantage because of the relationships they already have in place with advisors. If I'm an advisor, why should I turn to somebody I've never heard of when my existing familiar organization, where I know the people and I can quick,

dial them up on my phone can help me. So they're going to have a natural leg up. Another company that's going to have a natural leg up, two others I'll mention, gray scale, number one, because of the GBTC, the gray scale Bitcoin Trust, which is already the largest fund of its kind investing in Bitcoin already has a huge number of advisors who personally on it, but already a large number of investors who already own it. We're talking like 30 million people own this thing. So we have a massive number of already buyers of it. They're going to naturally be excited when this becomes available as an ETF. And Bitwise, Bitwise asset management is the oldest and largest crypto fund provider in the industry. And they have a wide array of investment advisors

who use them, who like them an awful lot. And I think you're going to see those five firms clearly generating asset flow. The others are also going to generate flows from the communities they currently work with. Vanek and Valkyrie and Wisdom Tree and Arc, they already have pulls of advisors and investors who use them, who like them, who know them. Kathy Wood is extraordinarily well known, of course, in the industry, and her ARC investments through 21 shares are well known. Invesco is one of the largest providers as well. You put them in the same category with Franklin Templeton and Fidelity and Black Rock. They're doing this through Galaxy.

And so this is going to be interesting. They're all bringing their own individual points and benefits to the table, their own inherent communities. That's why it's going to be really interesting to see who the winners are. I'll just guarantee you this. The winners are going to be the investors. And the reason I say that, Laura, is because of the difference between the Bitcoin ETF and the gold ETF. When the SEC said yes to the gold

ETF, they said yes to only one. And GLD holds tens of billions of dollars in assets. Later, the SEC said yes to others and they all have tens of millions. There's a huge advantage to being first in the market. And that lack of investor choice isn't good for the investment community. So I think the SEC learned their lesson when they dealt with gold ETS, and they're not going to make that mistake with Bitcoin.

So I don't believe they're going to say yes to a single ETF. I think they're going to say yes to all of them all at the same time, or certainly many of them, which will create competition in the marketplace. This will force the ETFs to lower their fees to provide features and benefits to the investor that they might not have otherwise bothered to do. This is good news for the investor. It will result in better investor outcomes. and it's really good news, and this is how American capitalism ought to work. This will force everybody to compete, and it's going to be really fascinating and a lot of fun to watch. So one thing I misspoke, it wasn't 13. It is 12 when you add Franklin Templeton. I just miscounted.

So when you talk about how they might compete, I did have a recent guest, James Seaford, of Bloomberg, who speculated that some of them might compete even in trying to provide yield on Bitcoin by, for instance, lending out the underlying. He said, of course, this is going to raise the hackles of true Bitcoin believers, which I know, especially after the FDX debacle. But I wondered, you know, do you think that that might be something that they try to compete on or what other types of features aside from price do you think we might see when it comes to Bitcoin ETS?

They're going to have to get creative and clever, Laura, because let's face it, this is a single asset ETF. You know, if the only thing I'm buying in my ETF is IBM stock, that what makes me different from everybody else who's buying and selling ETFs of IBM stock? is a single asset ETF. And so I've got to figure out how do I make myself different? There are only three ways. Number one, what custodian am I using to secure your ownership of Bitcoin? There are different custodians out there and maybe some of them are perceived to be safer or more secure or reliable than others. So who's my custodian? Number two, who's my surveillance partner?

Meaning we all have to figure out what's the price of Bitcoin right now. I don't have to worry about that when buying IBM stock, I'd just go to the NYSE. They tell me the price of IBM stock. But with Bitcoin, it treats 24-7 globally and different places record the price differently at different moments. So who says what is the value of Bitcoin at any given moment in time? Who is the surveillance partner? Who is it that's surveilling the marketplace to establish the price? So different ETFs are choosing different surveillance partners. And number three, what's the annual cost? What's the? What's the the expense ratio of the ETF? The lower the cost, the better I'll end up doing with profit.

So those are the three obvious differentiators, and I don't know if that's going to be enough. So to your point, some of them might start to get clever. They'll start to generate income or yield by lending out the Bitcoin or providing other methodologies that they can figure out to improve the return or reduce the risk. How much cash will be held in the ETF? The more is in cash, the less that's invested, that will reduce profits if the price goes up, but it'll increase safety if the price goes down. Will the ETF be active or passive? Will you just buy the Bitcoin, and that's the end of the story? Or are you going to let a manager buy and sell based on their attitude of what's going to happen next in Bitcoin? So will your fund be actively managed or

passively managed? So the different ETFs are going to have to figure out different ways to differentiate in order to gain attention in the marketplace and capture investor dollars. We'll see how it shakes out. But investors are going to have to pay attention to this. That's why they need to go to an investment advisor. The advisor is skilled in doing this analysis and research to help you understand the differences between these different ETFs so that you can choose the right one. And oh, by the way, here's a little secret for you, Lauren. You know what a lot of investment advisors are going to do? They're going to tell their clients to buy several. Oh.

Diversify your risks. Don't choose a single ETF that may end up having a problem one day. Maybe they get hacked. Maybe they underperform. Maybe as something goes on, we can't anticipate. So don't put all of your crypto investment into just one of these ETFs. Put it into three or five or heck, all 12. We're going to see interesting strategies emerge over the next several months.

Oh, wow. Okay. That makes sense. Yeah, because obviously this is a very new market and there's going to be a lot of competition. So I could see them wanting to not put all their eggs in one basket. So, you know, I did ask you about what's going to happen on day one. If you were to put a number on how much money will pour in on day one, what number would you say? I believe that we could reasonably expect to see hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into ETFs as a result.

Wait, on day one? No, not on day one, overturned. I was like, wait a second. Day one, it's hard to say. I would not at all be surprised if we see hundreds of millions of dollars on day one. A billion or more wouldn't shock me. But I think long term, I think we'll see $100, $150 billion in the long run in these ETS. In the long run, 10 years, five years? Like, what's the long run? Oh, I'd say two to five years. Oh, wow. I think that's the highest. assessment I've seen. Let me tell you how I get to that number so you can help me decide how crazy I am. If you look at RIAs in this country, there are 37,000 RIA firms with about 300,000 advisors, managing collectively about $8 trillion in assets for clients. If three quarters of those advisors are telling us that they are going to buy this ETF and that their allocation is going to be,

call it 2%, 8 trillion times 75% times 2%, get you $150 billion. Oh, okay. All right. But then, yeah, if it's the 1% that you recommend, then that would be 75 billion, which is more similar to the galaxy projection of about 80 billion in the first three years. Yeah. And so I think that we're going to find advisors end up doing more than 1%, even though that's what I recommend in my book, Galaxy making the same.

prediction, many others as well. The reason I think you're going to, as a matter of practice, find an average of more than one is that as a matter of practice, nobody's going to do less than one, right? If you're going to do it, you're going to do at least one, which means some are going to do five, not many, but some. And those who do only one are going to have clients say to them, why are we doing only one? That doesn't seem like a lot. Or if the price starts to rise, the clients are going to say, I want more. The whole thing will. classically buying high, selling well, the big mistake investors always make. They always do it backwards. But as the price rises and their familiarity grows, their comfort level increases,

they're going to want to have more than just one percent of their assets. I think it's going to shake out around two to three percent of assets among those who are doing it. And that's why I think will likely be closer to the 150 billion number than the 75 billion number. Either way, that's a massive number. Bitcoin's only got 500 billion. in right now. This is a huge inflow into the asset class, which is going to have a profound effect on its price. Yeah. And I should say, actually, I think Bitwise maybe has a somewhat similar projection. They said 50 billion in the first five years, but they were counting the 20 billion already in GPTC. So they were saying just an additional 50. So we'll have to see, I guess all of you have somewhat

similar projections. But yeah, we'll have to see how it takes out. So one of the thing is that, interestingly, Ethereum ETFs are expected to launch not that long after, since Ethereum actually falls into the same regulatory category as Bitcoin, at least as far as approving a spot ETF is concerned. So what are you seeing from the financial advisor community on that? Is anybody noticing or talking about it or interested? The crypto community is paying attention to the Ethereum ETF applications. BlackRock has filed one, which got everybody excited, but I don't think anybody outside of the crypto community is paying a lot of attention, because most folks are, let's face it, most people don't even understand Bitcoin, let alone

Buryam. So, no, I don't think there's a whole lot of attention being played outside of the crypto community, but there soon will be. And this is the real story that I'm most excited about that nobody's really paying attention to. Everybody's focusing on the advent of the Bitcoin ETF. That's fine. It's all well and good. We will see investor engagement. We will see advisors participating, but after a period of not too long, I don't know if it'll be months or if it'll be a couple of years, but at some point, I think it'll be sooner rather than later, advisors are going to say, wait a minute, I got my client into Bitcoin, but it's just Bitcoin. That ETF is only holding a single asset. I don't like to highly concentrate my client's

assets. When I invest in the stock market for my client, I give them broad-based portfolios, the S&P 500, 500 stocks. We buy the Vanguard total stock market index of 3,000 stocks. We do the NASDAQ. We do the Wilshire, 5,000. We believe in diversification. There's a lot more to crypto than just Bitcoin. So why, if I'm excited about crypto, am I only doing Bitcoin, especially after I bought the Bitcoin ETF, guess what I discovered? Bitcoin did not grow in value as fast as some other coins. And FOMO will set in. I'm missing out on the opportunities of those other coins. I'm missing out on the opportunity to diversify my crypto portfolio. I'm missing out on the games that others are operating and providing. I'm missing out on the rebalancing opportunities of

additional digital assets. So advisors and their clients will quickly realize, I don't know if this will be weeks or months or if it'll take longer, that there's more to crypto than just Bitcoin, and they will want to turn to other digital assets. The first natural place for them to go is Ethereum. It's the second largest digital asset. Many believe that this has better usage in the commercial application because of its technological capabilities. I personally am more excited about Ethereum than Bitcoin. Many others are as well. And pretty soon, I don't know if it would be days or weeks or if it'll be months or years, people are going to realize I should own more than just Bitcoin. In fact, some of the applications we're starting to see are for combo funds.

They invest in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Some, such as Bitwise, has a fund that invests in the top 10 digital assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the top two, and then they have the next eight largest coins. So investment advisors who love diversification are going to start to encourage their clients to buy more. They're going to say, I gave you 1% of Bitcoin, but let's not stop. there. Let's go get another 1% of Ethereum. Let's increase our overall crypto allocations. Somewhere between three and five, that is of more diversified nature. And this is going to be a rising tide environment for the entire crypto community. And it's then off to the races. It's going to be really, really exciting. And so I was curious because since you are more on the cutting edge and you

understand crypto far better than the vast majority of financial advisors, what are you excited about in terms of parts of the crypto ecosystem that you think could get folded into more institutional activity? The big new thing is tokenization. Everybody's kind of excited about Bitcoin and Ethereum and the use cases they offer and the fact that they allow businesses to operate faster, cheaper, better, safer, with greater transparency and inclusion. All of that is true.

And this is why we're seeing all the Fortune 500 engaging in this. Every bank in the world is developing blockchain technology, JP Morgan, and C.P. Morgan and city already are using it for cross-border settlements of transactions. We're seeing companies ranging from the Norwegian Seafood Association to Parmigiano Reggiano to Brightling to Starbucks to Nike, to Burberry and Tiffany and Dulce-Gabano. They're all engaged in crypto. And Disney, as I mentioned, just announced that they're going to engage in the crypto community as well.

So everybody gets it in commerce and they're racing to use this tech in their business. J.P. Morgan says that the technology is going to save banks $120 billion a year. This is a big deal. So, yeah, we get Bitcoin and Ethereum and others like it are exciting. But the real excitement law is tokenization. It's projected by McKinsey and by the Boston Consulting Group that the tokenization marketplace will be $15 trillion by the end of the decade. It virtually doesn't even exist today. So what am I talking about? Well, we know. the ease of investing in companies. We buy stocks. Well, I, you know, I'd love to own IBM, but it's a $150 billion business. I can't afford to buy IBM, but I can afford to buy a single share of $150

and that's what they did. They took this big company and they sliced the ownership into a hundred million slices of just a few dollars each. And I can buy those slices. And even at Schwab, I can buy a fraction of a slice for $5. So we know. understand that. And that's what's happening in crypto. We are beginning to tokenize real estate. We're recognizing that you can take a billion dollar building and turn it into a billion tokens. We call them tokens instead of shares, a billion tokens of a dollar each. And now I can sell those tokens on the open marketplace. The St. Regis in Aspen, Colorado was tokenized in 2020. The first condo building in New York was tokenized back in 2018.

A lot of buildings in Dubai are being tokenized. The global real estate market is three times bigger than the global stock market. And investors generally don't invest in real estate because it's expensive. It's illiquid. Once I buy a piece of property, how easily can I sell it? How quickly can you sell IBM stock by pressing a button? How quickly can you sell your house? It takes months.

So the tokenization of an illicitization of an illicit. liquid expensive asset, demonetizes it. I take a big asset. I make it cheap. And it democratizes it. Now, anybody can buy this thing. This increases the availability. So we're tokenizing artwork, exotic cars, rare wine. Everybody's getting into tokenization. The MBA created top shots, a tokenized version of baseball cards. We have Dolce Cabana, Tiffany's, Burbberys, Nike sold $200 million worth of tokenized sneakers, the blockchain. Starbucks has converted its loyalty rewards program to NFTs.

We can tokenize everything. In West Virginia, they've tokenized automobile titles. So when you buy a car, you don't get a piece of paper denoting your ownership. You get an NFT of it. Other states around the country are letting West Virginia tokenize their titles as well. Next, you're going to see house deeds titled, tokenized. You're going to see your academic records, your health records, your employment records will become NFTs, your passport, your driver's license, your salary will become tokenized.

If you are a big fan of a football quarterback or a Hollywood actor or a Broadway performer or your favorite recording artist, you'll be able to buy a share of their contract so that as their career goes up in value, you'll enjoy the profit with them. You're not going to be just a fan. You're going to be an owner. This tokenization marketplace is exploding. Yeah. And it's going to do the next big thing. That last example, I don't think the SEC would allow that. But they'll solve the problem. All these tokenizations are going to have to be securities, all of them.

So we have to figure out how to get from here to there in order to have regulatory compliance. And once they figure all that out, you're going to see brokerage firms selling these securities, which are NFTs. I'll give you one example. Franklin Templeton brought to market last year, the first blockchain money market fund. It's called the on-chain money market fund.

You don't buy it through a brokerage account. You download a free app on your smartphone. You download the Benji app and you buy shares. You buy tokens of the app. They are NFTs and you get a four and a half, five percent yield. This is an SEC approved money market fund. It's a security, but it is trading exclusively on the blockchain. And Franklin Templeton is now developing the same technology, not for money markets,

but for stock ETS. Many are predicting that over the next 10 years, the ETF industry will go away and be replaced by NFTs. tokenization is the new big thing. Okay. I will have to see how that plays out. I could see some of that working. A lot of times I feel like with real world assets, there is a challenge when you don't have things that are native to the blockchain. But, you know, I think you're right that there probably is a way to,

to make a transition for a number of those items. And I think you're right, Laura, that this is going to be a big hurdle to get from here to there. What I've laid out is the dream, the potential capability of the technology. You've identified something equally, perhaps even more important, and that is the regulatory, legal requirement obligation methodology of how do we get there? How do we do this in conformance with securities laws? How do we do it so we're protecting the investor? we saw all the nonsense of the past 10 years with illegal coins and token offerings.

We've seen massive amounts of fraud and abuse. We need to make sure that there is no repeat of that nonsense. Everything we do going forward has to be fully compliant with law. And I am hopeful and even confident that Wall Street's engagement will help make all that happen. But it's going to take time. All right. Well, Rick, it has been such a pleasure talking with you. Where can people learn more about you and your work?

You can reach us at DACFP.com, DACFP.com. And in fact, at the end of this month, we're hosting a webinar where we're releasing the newest survey data done by McKinsey and us on investment advisor attitudes about crypto, sponsored by Lion's Soul. So you can register for free at DACFP.com. You get one CE credit. And you'll see the latest attitudes among financial advisors around the country. So you can learn about our conferences and our webinars and our CBDA designation of which Laura is a part so that you can show your clients that you are certified in blockchain and digital assets and get 18 CE credits along the way. Perfect. Well, thank you so much for coming on Unchained.

Great to be with you, Laura. Thanks. Thanks so much for joining us today. To learn more about Rick and how traditional institutions are watching the potential ETF launch, check out the show notes for this episode. Unchained is produced by me, Laura, without from Kevin Fuchs, Matt Pilchard, Wanner Vanovich, Meckenkavis, Nelson Wong, Shashon, and Market Korea. Thanks for listening. Unchained is now a part of the CoinDesk Podcast Network. For the latest in digital assets, check out Markets Daily, seven days a week with new host, Noel Acheson. Follow the CoinDesk Podcast Network for some of the best shows in crypto.