Unchained - Why Kalshi's Timeline Fight Put Its ETH Perp Volume Under a Microscope: Uneasy Money

Episode Date: September 24, 2026

Kalshi's ETH perp did half a billion in volume on $3 million in open interest. Kain and Taylor lay out why that isn't necessarily wash trading. Plus, Austin joins as co-host. ========================...================================ Thank you to our sponsors! Visit 1inch to swap tokenized securities, crypto and more. Simple. Secure. Self-custodial. Whatever asset you’re buying - swap it at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://unchainedcrypto.com/go/1inch-sn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ======================================================== Quick favor: We’re deciding what Unchained does next; new shows, stream times, what’s worth paying for. Our listener survey takes five minutes, it’s anonymous, and I read the write-in answers myself. Everyone who takes it can enter a drawing for a free year of Unchained Premium or Bits + Bips Premium. Open through Sunday, October 18. — Laura ======================================================== Kalshi's ETH perpetual futures market logged half a billion dollars in 24-hour volume on just $3 million in open interest, and after its crypto hires picked a fight on the timeline, an analyst pulled the public data and alleged wash trading. Kain Warwick and Taylor Monahan argue that paid market makers are a likelier explanation than a back room of bots. Austin Griffith, in his first episode as a regular co-host, asks whether all that liquidity actually helps a prediction market find the truth. The hosts also cover Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's warning that AI labs answer for their agents, Taylor's Tornado Cash parallel, Anthropic's new wet lab, Amazon blocking Meta's Muse assistant, and Jev, a classifier model that decides in 200 milliseconds. Plus, Zcash around $1,500 and why NEAR suddenly has people paying attention. As Kain puts it, a new model is dropping nearly every day, and keeping up now takes agents of its own. Hosts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Kain Warwick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Host of Uneasy Money and Founder of Infinex and Synthetix ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Taylor Monahan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Co-host of Uneasy Money and Security Expert ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Austin Griffith - Co-host of Uneasy Money and Builder Enablement at Ethereum Foundation Timestamps 🎲 02:32 How Kalshi's crypto hires started a timeline war over its perp volume 🤝 07:28 Why Kain suspects paid market makers, not wash trading, are behind the volume 🔎 09:59 Austin asks whether any of this liquidity helps markets find the truth 📚 21:41 What the price of Google teaches about liquidity and trusting a market 💧 28:14 1inch Aqua: Back multiple liquidity positions with one wallet balance at http://unchainedcrypto.com/go/1inch-yt 🏛️ 30:59 Scott Bessent told AI labs they're responsible for what their agents do ⚖️ 34:20 Taylor on the Tornado Cash parallel: which humans answer for autonomous code? 🛒 42:48 Why Amazon blocked Meta's Muse assistant from shopping on its site ⚡ 47:29 Jev: the model that makes decisions in 200 milliseconds without talking 🔒 1:00:33 Zcash around $1,500 and why NEAR has people paying attention again Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 And I think there is like a sense of you get lulled into a false sense of security, right? Where like you have a sandbox, you've been testing agents, it's been fine, they haven't broken out. If you put 03 mini in a sandbox, that guy's not going anywhere, right? It's like a baby, right? Like you have a baby and, you know, you put it on the ground and it can't go anywhere for the first like seven months. Oh, okay. Right? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:00:21 And then after like. And then they're like. And then they can. And then they can start moving. And you've got to be aware that like eventually they're going to start moving. moving. Also, if your job is to make them move quickly, you would think like at some point, you're like, some point this thing's going to be smart enough that it's going to escape its bounds. We should probably be watching for that moment. And instead, they're like, just like, ah, it's a baby.
Starting point is 00:00:45 They don't move. It's fine. Don't worry about it. Hey, everyone. I'm DreamWork and welcome to UnEasy Money because what happens on chain never stays on chain. Before we begin, here is a word from sponsors that make this show possible. This episode is brought to you by One Inch Aqua. share liquidity layer from 1 inch, back multiple liquidity positions with one wallet balance, and keep your tokens in your wallet until a swap fills. See how it works at 1inch.com slash Aqua. Before we get started, I want to ask you for something. We're making a bunch of decisions right now about unchained. What we make next, when we go live, what we should be doing more of,
Starting point is 00:01:22 and I'd rather hear from you before we make them than after. So we put together a survey. It takes just a few minutes, it's anonymous, and there's a box where you can tell me what we could be doing better. I read all the responses. The link is in the show notes, or you can snap the QR code on screen. Or go to unchainedcrypto.com slash survey. Thanks. All right.
Starting point is 00:01:44 I'm here with my co-host, Taylor Wanahan, security expert. And we have a very special new, special co-host. Double special. Yeah. Double special. Yeah. We love when you're a guest, but now, you're stuck with us. So welcome as a regular host to the show. We're very excited to have you.
Starting point is 00:02:09 Yeah. Thanks for having me. Let's get into it. Let's get into it. We've got lots of stuff to talk about, lots of AI stuff. But we'll get through the crypto stuff quickly. Will we? Will we really? We want. All right. So, to a timeline warfare, which like was just in it. Like this felt so inevitable to me that this is going to happen because they're so not crypto and they hired like genuinely some weird crypto people. The people that you would hire if you had no idea about crypto and you're like, ah, that's a guy on the timeline. Like he's he's the guy.
Starting point is 00:02:54 I'll just go and hire him. He knows crypto. Yeah, he has ICO in his. name. He's been here forever. He really knows what's going on. I'm sure he knows. I'm sure he seems like a good guy. So, so, so, uh, so they hired a bunch of, uh, people. And, you know, like, some of them, uh, like, I, I should, you know, I say this every time, right? But like, I'm a, I'm a polymarket seed investor. So, you know, my bag bias is very heavy here. Um, but like, the Cali guys are kind of rats. Like, let's be honest. Right.
Starting point is 00:03:30 like everything that they do is kind of rap mode, right? Like from like trying to fucking call the FBI, like just all kinds of like weird shit that they've been involved in. And like just every possible sketchy thing that you could come up with as like a game plan they seem to come up with. And so yeah, of course like they're, you know, fucking going to get themselves into some pitch battle. The interesting thing is I think that for like most of the lost, I don't know,
Starting point is 00:04:00 let's call it like 18 months while they've been like main characters fighting it out with with polling market and and prediction markets have been like you know huge huge this cycle they haven't really gotten into fights on the timeline because they're not really crypto people so they're not really on the timeline but then they deputize these crypto people to be on the timeline and they managed to get themselves into a fight with some cracked autist guy who's like, I'll tear you apart and teach you a lesson. And so that's what's happened. And so this guy, Benny,
Starting point is 00:04:40 gone into a fight with ICO Beast. And ICO Beast was like, I don't know, said something to him. And he's like, all right, I'm going to go and like analyze all the data that's all public. And like just went to town on them. And so, so, you know, the. The allegation is like wash trading, that it's all fake volume on their perp markets, that, you know, there's some fake volume on the prediction markets, et cetera, et cetera. So there's a bunch of things and they've looked at the data and like, you know, the numbers don't sound amazing.
Starting point is 00:05:20 Right. So like the ETHP had $3 million in open interest and half a billion in 24 hour volume. which like I don't know man anything's possible it could be someone really is not confident in their eighth position and keeps you know fomoing in and out uh over over i mean the the one interesting thing is like you know um i think the the only possible way right and i think this is also kind of come out and people have talked about this the only possible way that this makes any sense is if it's incentivized volume, right? Like, not everything, I think it's worth calling out. Not everything has to be wash trading. Right. And not everything has to be the exchange for Colchie, the prediction market. That's one of the hardest things to understand about crypto.
Starting point is 00:06:15 It's like, if it's incentivized, like, I don't know that they would even know how to trade on their exchange, honestly. Like, so I don't know if it's them, right? Like, I highly doubt that they've got some guy in a basement, like clicking buttons like wash training, right? Like, I mean, it would be wild. That would be like some Mount Gawks era. It's just not. It's not bad. And to have
Starting point is 00:06:37 people that are engaged with the CFTC, they're doing disclosures to the CFTC, to then also have a back room where they are like running their own bots or something. They just would be completely insane. So I don't, but that doesn't mean that it's not happening. It just means that you have to be careful with like saying that that colchee proper is the one that's doing this versus
Starting point is 00:07:02 there's some market structure. I just think it's extremely unlikely that they. And why would you do it? Right. I mean, it's calcium. Why would you do it when you can just incentivize other people to do it at least? Exactly. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:07:16 So, so, you know, my guess is that, that they have some, you know, incentive scheme, right? some like negative fucking rebate scheme whatever, right? Where like the more you trade, the more money you get or something like that. Right.
Starting point is 00:07:33 You know, like if you were, if you were to set up a system that was designed to generate a lot of volume in the most efficient way, the funny part about this is, right? Like who are the people who would generate half a billion dollars in volume off $3 million at open interest?
Starting point is 00:07:49 People who are hyper-efficient. Who are hyper-efficient? Who are hyper-efficient? hyper-efficient market makers. That's their job to be as efficient as possible in, you know, what they do, right? So if you got to market makers and put them in a room and said, hey, guys, I'll pay you $1 every time you cross each other. Those guys are going to rip your face off.
Starting point is 00:08:08 They're going to create so much volume. You wouldn't believe it. And, and, and, and, and, right. Now, the question, I guess, right, is, does that have any benefit to an end user? right like are these two market makers because that's the difference between wash trading right even if it's one person two parties colluding together or whatever and like incentivized liquidity right if if these market makers only ever cross with each other if they have some system for ensuring that like they only ever cross their orders they're always delta neutral they're like you know constantly going
Starting point is 00:08:50 back and forth and they say, okay, like every 37, you know, milliseconds or whatever, we're like both post an order and like, you know, if that's what's going on, obviously that's going to be bad and like someone will find that out and like the CFTC will not be impressed by that. If it's just like, eh, yolo, we don't care who the fuck we trade with and our job is just like generate as much volume with like the least capital possible, that would actually be fine for users, right? because there's always a market maker who's kind of sitting in the books and he's going to cross with you. And it's not like someone knows anything about the ETH price.
Starting point is 00:09:24 Right. So I think there's like a bunch of ways with this could be like market structurally fine, even though it doesn't look great. Like the optics are not amazing. And, and you know, you just have some market makers that have like negative rebates that are just sitting there like trying to max extract from Kalshi, which again, I'm here for like go notes. the liquidity is one thing but are they like getting to the answer like the goal of the prediction market is to find the answer oh whoa whoa yeah yeah wait a second this helps that right like just asking the question smooth brain question like maybe they're providing liquidity but it seems like it's going back and forth on a previously found neutral point they're not actually getting to
Starting point is 00:10:09 the truth well this the the million dollar billion dollar 20 billion dollar question right is like Is this actually going back and forth, right? Like you imagine a system where like all of the regular orders are here, right? And these two guys and like, you know, we've seen this many times before, right, in centralized exchange. Like, you know, how many times we read a report, right? Of like, I can't remember exactly which one it was. There was some exchange, one of the like transaction mining exchanges from like 2018 F-Coyne or something like that where you've got an order book, right? And magically, every cross was like 150 bibs from mid-market, right?
Starting point is 00:10:53 So, like, basically the only time anyone ever traded with each other was like way outside of the actual price, right? Which makes no sense. Why is there someone who's always showing up with this huge block trade, like, way outside of mid-market, right? And so, you know, there are like many ways that you can do this, right? And the reason why you do that is to avoid actually ever- So someone else doesn't take it.
Starting point is 00:11:15 Take it first. Yeah. Right. Yeah. So you're just like a bang, bang, but like just bouncing around mid-market, right? It doesn't seem like this is what's happening here. Like they are actually crossing it mid-market. And if that's the case, then like if you, for example, Austin were to turn up to this market
Starting point is 00:11:33 and you're super bullish on eat, right? And you're like, this is the most liquid place to trade. And you just keep clipping in 50 bucks, 100 bucks, 1,000 bucks, a million bucks, whatever. the market makers will keep crossing you and they'll go and offload that somewhere else, right? Like they're not, they're not, you know, going to be having a directional position against you. They're just going to go and offload it on purpose. So that's their job, right? Ideally, they would like to not have to offload it anywhere.
Starting point is 00:12:03 That's way cheaper and way more efficient. And so if it is directly not moving, that's great for them, which I mean, hey, you know, directionally not moving, right? like um so so you know it's probably a good asset to pick right um anyway i think i think that like the reality is it it probably looks a lot worse than it is it probably is fine from a user perspective and like does actually generate liquidity um and it makes it an okay place to trade for users um if it doesn't like it's going to be very easy for the cfTC to figure that out like they it. They have for seats, right? Like, you know, if this is the F-coin style, like, hit, you know, like 150 bips above mid-market, right? Like, if magically they're always selling these, you know, positions to each other at 3K or something like that while it's trading like $2,800, then, you know, someone's going to notice that.
Starting point is 00:13:03 So, yeah. I found the thing that kind of, and when Kalsh came out and sort of like did this big response, they didn't really address. address this. There were so many irregular things relative to other markets. Like, they looked at like finance and private and I don't know if they looked at polymarket, but they sort of like looked at like these different, they pulled the data for these different things, right? And then they sort of like, they graph them and they use different algorithms. Well, they tried to. Okay. So, but like they tried to call. They tried to choose. Right. Oh, yeah. I saw that. And crypto.com, come on.
Starting point is 00:13:42 I didn't even know they had this. Remember when crypto.com was running around, like, in the middle of the bull market being, like, we have the highest volume on, like, the Bitcoin markets and everyone was like, sure, guys. Like, whatever. Like, congratulations. I do try to throw crypto.com under. But this is why it's hilarious, right? If you were like, no, no, no, look at these, like, great examples of, like, efficient market structure, crypto.com. our books look exactly like theirs.
Starting point is 00:14:13 Like they just have no idea what they're doing. You would not use crypto.com as your example of like good work. No, it's completely mad. And by the way, crypto.com's response was like absolutely impeccable. They were like, we applaud their creativity or something. It was fine. If you find yourself on the side of crypto.com in an argument. Like something's so wrong.
Starting point is 00:14:38 Something's so wrong. Like, you really. I wonder if Colgi thinks that Crypto.com is like. They do. They have no idea. I mean, here in L.A., by the way, here in L.A., crypto.com is everywhere. I know.
Starting point is 00:14:52 Yeah. Yeah. And on all the sports stadiums, like all of them, because of the, yeah, it's like, noise skating. It's called, it's so funny. My son and I, my son and I watch UFC, right? And so, like, it's always like crypto.com arena, like, crypto.com arena, like, Crypto.com's everywhere in the UFC, right?
Starting point is 00:15:10 And he's sick, so he knows crypto, but he really thinks that, like, crypto.com owns crypto, like, all of it, right? Like, it wouldn't be called crypto.com if they didn't own crypto. But your six-year-old in Kalshi have about the same understanding of the crypto. Hey, you join those dots there, right? So what about, I mean, with all this regulation, with this EFTC stuff, Is there any advantage that Polymarket has by being on chain and actually more decentralized?
Starting point is 00:15:44 That's what something good should come out of actually being on chain and something bad should come out of if you're highly regulated and centralized. The decentralized player should have an advantage here. Yeah. I think like, you know, the, the situation here is like both of the bolts are pretty open. Like there's public APIs, right? Like, now, you know, again, it would be wild if like they were manipulating the data in the background and like publishing fake that. Like I don't think they're doing that, right? Like, you know, as as Tay said, right, like they're not doing, you know, like backroom crime, right?
Starting point is 00:16:23 Like, that's very obvious. But you don't need to do backroom crime to like make your numbers look better than they are, right? You know, there's a bunch of ways you can stay in gray, you know, in the gray area. barrier, right? So I think just think from like a user perspective, it being on chain, at least you can see the full receipts, right? It's one thing if I'm like, oh, here's my API, bro, like, look how beautiful my books are, right? It's another thing if it's like, no, I can actually see, you know, but also being on chain doesn't mean that there is a wash trick, right? Doesn't mean that there isn't, you know, fake volume and all kinds of things. Like if you, if you incentivize
Starting point is 00:17:02 volume, you know, there's a question, there's a question of like, If you incentivize volume, is it real? Right. And I think like my, my view is it's real if the impact on an unaffiliated user is they can come to that venue and get a good fill, the best possible fill in the market, then it's real, right? And so you're paying for that. You know, if the volumes, whether the volumes look good or bad or whatever is somewhat irrelevant, right? Like as a user, Austin wants to be able to turn up to the polymarket, ETH perp or the ETH prediction market and express his extreme bullishness on ETH.
Starting point is 00:17:45 And if that's the best place to do it, then good. Like, then Austin's happy. That's, he doesn't care about like the other market structural things there. He just wants to be able to, you know, express his eith bullishness. But on the aggregate and going back to finding the truth. if there's a lot of liquidity and it's meant to be pinned to the status quo, when someone comes in with inside information or actually knows enough to move a prediction market, it sounds like with this current setup, it would move less.
Starting point is 00:18:19 Like you would get less signal from not. That's good. But that's the thing. You want the deeper the market, the more accurate the information, right? The more liquidity, the more accurate, right? But it sounds like this liquidity is around status quo, not around information. there's a question of like, you know, if you know something, let's say you know, right, that the, that Tom Lee is about to go and buy a billion dollars worth of eat.
Starting point is 00:18:50 And I'm not suggesting that you know this. I'm just saying if you did, blink twice. But like if Tom, if Tom Lee is about to go out this week and buy another billion dollars worth of eat, right? somehow he scrounged up some cash under the cushions or whatever. I'm worried about my blinking, dude. I'm not blinking. I don't blink. I don't know Tom Lee.
Starting point is 00:19:13 We don't hang. I'd like to reach out. Let's chill. Yeah. Like, Austin's good. I got a whole crew of builders, brother. We could make it rip. You can cook some stuff.
Starting point is 00:19:23 So Tom Lee is about to buy a billion dollars with a beef, right? And you know this. Right. So the price of beef is going to go up for sure. Right. And so you want a place that allows you to buy as much exposure to that upcoming that's true. Okay. As possible. Me as a buyer, I get a great price for it because there's a shit. If you could put a billion dollars into the polymarket.
Starting point is 00:19:52 I could. Is it going to be over 3K, right? Then you just load up. You keep loading up. Ideally, right, this is the irony of prediction markets. It's like for the actual person expressing that information, the deeper the market. Now, eventually you will move it, right? And then eventually people will be like, hey, wait a second. Austin, you're just, you know, Austin.e just put a billion dollars into the, like, what does he know, right?
Starting point is 00:20:15 And then the world knows that. Whatever you know, you've now expressed and now the world knows it, right? If that market was super liquid, right? Then there's probably no point. Like if you put $5 in, right? and it moves the market and ETH is now going to be above 3K. Like, who can trust that information? But if you put a billion dollars in to move it over 3K, then it's probably real.
Starting point is 00:20:40 You probably are Tom Lee. I mean, we've never seen you and Tom Lee in the same room at the same time. So, I don't know. So, yeah. So, like, liquidity is good for our ability to trust in prediction markets. The more liquid it is, the more real the prices. on some like very critical dimension. Okay, let's say that there's like a sweet spot here
Starting point is 00:21:06 where you need at least enough liquidity so you can buy in if you have an idea and it doesn't like move the market a great distance just based on you have a feeling, right? But also like you should move the market when you have an idea. So you see the truth of the thing. So I think that there's- Assuming you do, right? Assuming you know,
Starting point is 00:21:30 assuming you know, take the price, like, let's, the most efficient market that we have in the world that we've come up with is like the New York Stock Exchange, NASDA, whatever, right?
Starting point is 00:21:42 Like, it's the most hyper-efficient. It may be like, arguably like interest rate swaps or something like that either. But let's just, for the sake of something that's real, right? The price of Google is like one of them,
Starting point is 00:21:54 at any time in the world, while the markets are open is like the most known thing in terms of like level of confidence of the world can happen like that's what google's work right like the market is hyper efficient there's like trillions of dollars sloshing around to try and like decide what the price of google is right it's a prediction market that's what it does um so if you turn up and you're like i think google is actually worth $197 not $196 like you could be there all day bidding that it's not going to move the price, right? Like, it's just going to sit there because you will never have enough liquidity to the movement, right? But each time you try, the market is pricing in that like infinitesimely
Starting point is 00:22:39 small extra information that you're expressing through putting your dollars in, right? It's just such a deeply liquid market. And the reality is you don't, we shouldn't believe that you, your theory that Google's worth $197, not $196 is a real thing. Like, it's because, you don't, you know, it's, because it's not, right? The market has decided what the price is. So, so, you know, there is this, like, very real tradeoff between, like, if someone does know something. Now, you know, if Eric Schmidt turns up and says, like, hey, I'm going to, you know, dump a bunch of Google shares, right? It's not even necessarily that he's, like, expressing an opinion, right? Like, the information is intrinsic to him selling, whether he know that.
Starting point is 00:23:27 anything about like what's going to happen to Google or not. Like he is moving the market, right, by selling. He's got enough shares. So everyone goes, ah, let me get out of the way of that. I don't want that guy, you know, dumping into me, right? So for that period, the price of Google is worth less because there's more, you know, sellers than buyers, right? And there's one particular guy.
Starting point is 00:23:46 And the more liquidity there is, like if Eric Schmidt could literally dump all of his shares and the market didn't move, you would say that's actually, good. Like the market is so confident that his dumping of his shares actually has no impact on the price because the price is already known. And so, you know, that's kind of the core tradeoff here, I think. The more liquid something is, the less it moves, the more confident you can be that the market is efficient and that we have like efficiently arrived at that information. So when you have very inefficient markets, you can't really trust it. Like one guy who thinks they have inside information who doesn't.
Starting point is 00:24:32 Yeah. Can move the market. It's not even real. Right. That's bad. That's a bad thing. And now we have imperfect signal. And we're like, oh, that guy's an insider.
Starting point is 00:24:41 He knows something. No, he's just retarded. It's fine. Like, you know anything. Yeah. Well, and a lot of times, like, the market makers are sort of, they're trading on. a variety of different signals and also providing liquidity. So they're making it deeper, but they're also, like, they are aware of the market,
Starting point is 00:25:01 very aware of the market, right? So it's not just that, like, because there's deeper liquidity, an individual isn't able to move the market as much. It's, like, that's how it should be. You know what I mean? And if it is a real signal, meaning that, you know, perhaps there's like multiple people that do have you know good intel it's not only their money that then moves ends up moving the market it's also the market maker is like interpretation of that
Starting point is 00:25:32 of of their actions right and so you sort of yeah it keeps going on and on and on on on um but ultimately especially with the markets you have to have someone on the other side and there has to be a buyer you know someone's buying eric smiths yeah so if there's only like four people trading yeah and i don't know like i always have this experience when i don't know if you guys have done this lately but there's like certain markets when you're trying to exit to like usd like fiat usd it's like so stupid right you have to go to the but you go to the centralized exchange you either selling your ETH for Fiat USD, not USDC, like Fiat USDA, right? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:26:20 Or your USDC or your Dye or your USDT for Fiat. You'd think that it should be like a one-to-one, but it's not always, right? Yeah. And that's like, I don't know, every time I say that, I'm like, why? Like, there should be a better way to do this. At the same time. Right. Right. But like, why would a marketmaker be there?
Starting point is 00:26:43 right they're not there and even if they are there they want to make money right exactly and there's no way for them to make money there which is why if you're ever trying to dump anything for fiat especially a stable coin by the way for like fiat usd buy something in real life there's going to be a spring someone someone's offering a service right someone someone is offering you a service to you know and like there's ways to you know if you're buying ins right And you're like, well, that's bad customer service, right? We want people to believe that USD and USDA are the same thing. And so we will absorb that spread and pay the market makers to be there.
Starting point is 00:27:23 Like, you know, that's the type of incentive which creates like more efficiency. And that's the incentive. That's enough market structure to talk for. Yeah. I just wanted to say like that's why there are incentives because ultimately it gives a better, ultimately makes the market better, makes more efficient. And it's a better user experience. especially for the retail users.
Starting point is 00:27:45 Who are like, why fuck this is dollars, not dollars, man? What are you guys doing? Like, my USC is worth $1, right? No, it's not, FYI. Yeah. All right. Let's go to ads. When we come back, we can talk about AI.
Starting point is 00:27:58 Sorry, it took us so long to get there. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. $540 million. That's how much concentrated liquidity sat idle in a given week in the first half of this year. About 30% of the Defi-TVL, if you're one. That's according to Dune Research commissioned by One Inch, but there's a solution.
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Starting point is 00:28:47 One more thing. We've got a listener survey open. It takes just a few minutes. It's anonymous. And it changes what we make next. Use the QR code on screen or go to unchained crypto.com slash survey. The link is in the show notes. All right.
Starting point is 00:29:04 We're back. This segment is about AI attacking people as usual. It feels like that's what we talk about when it comes to. AI. I think we've got some non-attacking AI stuff later. So, stick around if you're interested in friendly. Did you see the guy fighting the body-ed AI? That's crazy. That's crazy.
Starting point is 00:29:26 Those teeps were they getting teeped. I had three ribs broken, getting teeped. A teep kick can really fuck you off. This must be a UFC term where the robot kicks you in the It's like a front kick. Okay. There's a lot of power. You can see it.
Starting point is 00:29:43 Like the robot like literally teeps him and the guy just collapses. Yeah. It's funny because you see the like a like a question mark kick or like a sidekick or something like that. And you're like a low like kick and it sounds much worse or whatever. Like the teep doesn't sound that bad. But there's so much force in your body like they get their hips behind it. That robot just like robot hit through that guy. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:09 Just runs through him. Yeah. And he's wearing like the funny thing is. He's wearing pads, right? But, like, you know, the pads cover like 30% of your body. And the robot doesn't give a fuck. It's like aiming for the non-pad sections it looks like. They're like multiple times where I'm like, I miss the pads.
Starting point is 00:30:26 It didn't get the memo on hit him in the pads. So, yeah, I don't know. Every time you call your AI a retard, think of that moment right there. I do. I literally do. Yes. I'm going to be getting teeped. You're going to get teeped.
Starting point is 00:30:43 Dio in the face. All right. So this was interesting. Scott Besson, Treasury Secretary, weirdly decided he was the guy that was going to tell people. Like, nothing makes any sense anymore, man. He's like, hey, you guys should know AI people. I guess AI people have so much money. And he's like, there's a lot of money involved.
Starting point is 00:31:05 I should probably weigh in here or something, right? The labs are like so big that he's like, now I have to also be in charge of you. because you're a giant pile of money and I'm responsible for money. Anyway, he's like, hey, just a heads up, while you're fucking camping out on your giant pile of money over there, AI labs, I'm watching you. And you're responsible for your agents do. Now, like, Tay, I'm sure you're going to think this is hilarious, right?
Starting point is 00:31:30 Because as I was reading this, he's like, if you as the lab are testing your agents and they hack someone, you're responsible. And the idea that you wouldn't be to me, Like, I thought it's, I'm like, Tade's mind must just be, like, blowing here. Like, on what possible planet could you as an AI lab, build a fucking AI, be testing in your own lab, and have it going to destroy something and be like, oh, man, like, I don't know. Like that. Wild.
Starting point is 00:32:02 Wild. My biggest, like, my biggest, literally, my biggest hope is that the labs handle things civilly for as long as possible. because the second this turns into like a criminal case, we're absolutely toast. Like they are just so, but it is wild. It's also wild that Besson is the one that's commenting on this. Like it's the one that's like just dropping truth bombs on the labs. But it also, I think it does bring up an interesting question as to, I mean, this is the age-old question that crypto has been dealing with as well. It's like, do you have code, you have a ton of, you have DAWS, you have these autonomous organizations.
Starting point is 00:32:42 you have developers. You have node runners. If code is not accountable or responsible, but the humans are, which humans are we going to hold responsible for their actions, right? And I think that there was, there wasn't that much conversation about this on this dust in quote,
Starting point is 00:33:10 but this is the question that like, you know, obviously I was top of mind for me as like okay in this specific case because it was I think it was literally open AI that was running these tasks right yeah he was he was I think he was referencing the hugging face the hugging face right yeah so in that situation it's like the humans at open AI are not just the creators of the model that ended up hacking open AI they're actually like the operators of the model right it's there Like this is not like they gave the new model to Austin and he blew some shit up. Right.
Starting point is 00:33:49 Right. And so I think, but I think it's worth calling this out. They were literally in their machines. Like there's no one else involved. Like how could you not be responsible? And I guess that because I sit here saying like, well, I mean, like I didn't make the blockchain man. I don't know. Like I just wrote the code and said it.
Starting point is 00:34:09 But I mean, this is like when you can feed the magic Bernato cash, right? Like the government's saying that Roman as an individual who created Cornado Cash code doesn't run it, doesn't operate it. Isn't there he's not on, he was not prosecuted. He was not on trial for even using tornado cash. Ironically enough they didn't give up right because he wasn't actually laundering any money. Because it wouldn't matter, right? Like it. He's just the, he's a dab.
Starting point is 00:34:38 Yeah. So I think, but I think that. So, yeah, I think it's interesting. When you think about it like that, it's like, okay, well, who's responsible for the money laundering? And obviously, the money launderers are, in my opinion, in most people's opinion. But the government has actually taken the other, has decided that Roman, the creator, the DAB is, right? And, you know, like, it's incentives, right? They're like, okay, you know, people are using sacks of money.
Starting point is 00:35:05 Like, you know, they're, like, you know, putting cash in a sack and, fucking. fucking taking it over the border or whatever the fuck they're doing, right? And they're like, we're going to send a message not to the guys taking the money over the border, but to the sack manufacturers. The sack manufacturers, right? Yeah. Like, we need sacks guys. Like, the sacks are not inherently bad.
Starting point is 00:35:29 They're useful. Oh, it's, yeah. What are we doing here? Like, how about you go after the fucking money guys that are like carting it over the border? Let's do that. You know, go after the lap, stop the lads around, because they're not only creating the shit. They're then also operating it in the most irresponsible way possible. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:52 They're literally like, go hack the world and then they don't monitor it. And then they're like, oops, we have the world. It's just, I like genuinely every single time it comes up, every time it comes up, I sit there and I just kind of shake my head. So I'm like, on what planet could you like? And the only thing that I can think up, right? Because I really like to try and like, you know, empathize with like, what, like, what was the person who set up this experiment thinking at the time where they were like, okay, this will be fine, right?
Starting point is 00:36:23 And I think there is like a sense of you get lulled into a false sense of security, right? Where like you have a sandbox. You've been testing agents. It's been fine. They haven't broken out. That you know what. Watch that you, well, like, I'm sure the first time you put, you know, if you put O3 Mini in a sandbox, that guy's not going anywhere, right? It's like a baby, right?
Starting point is 00:36:47 Like, you have a baby and, you know, you put it on the ground and it can't go anywhere for the first like seven. Okay. Right. Yeah. And then after like. And then it's like. And then they can. And then they can start moving.
Starting point is 00:37:00 And you've got to be aware that like eventually they're going to start moving. Also, if your job is to make the move quickly. You would think like at some point, you're like, at some point this thing's going to be smart enough that it's going to escape its bounds. We should probably be watching for that moment. And instead they're like, just like, ah, it's a baby. They don't move. It's fine. Don't worry about it.
Starting point is 00:37:24 The weirder the story sounds, the better it travels across, like, social media. Like, the fact that it broke out, the fact that it had the NPM library that it was talking to each other. Like, we were talking about it. Everyone was talking about it. So I feel like some of this is also like the sense. sensationalistness of it that helps it travel. But it's real though.
Starting point is 00:37:43 Like it's sensationalally real. Like it's not like, you know, it's a wild thing. We've talked about this so many times that I just keep going back to the reality that like the AI labs are not doing a single freaking thing to give anyone confidence that they have this under control. And that is like the biggest issue. That's why I think ultimately Besson is not only aware of this, but
Starting point is 00:38:08 commenting on it. Yeah. Because he has to, because the lab guys are being freaking morons and are making it abundantly clear. Like, like, it's so bad. It's so scary. Um, and then I also, so as this, as these comments were happening and as everyone was discussing, you know, and they're like, AI is going to kill us all. Like, you know, blah, blah, blah.
Starting point is 00:38:33 Did you see that in this story? The story of Anthropic now has a wet lab? Did you see this? Yeah, I know. I was like, come on, guys. Like, it's crazy. They're just so detached. So they're like, yeah, we can't.
Starting point is 00:38:52 If someone's going to create super viruses, it must be us. We must be the first ones to create the same. The one else to make a super virus. Yeah. Like, oh, man. Yeah, it's just like they just. But they don't even have the cyber down. They literally don't have cyber down
Starting point is 00:39:11 And they're like Let's just speed run our way to biology now too In the middle of ass off too Like go get an island or something at least guys I think what are you doing? I feel like island arcticly would be worse But just throwing that out there Like you know fucking Dario on his like
Starting point is 00:39:30 Superbillain island That probably wouldn't play that well Maybe they're aware enough I would feel much more comfortable If it was on an island I think Bassett would as well. He's like, okay, the army can deal with that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:39:46 We'll nuke them, it'll be fine. Yeah, yeah, we'll just, yeah. We'll just drop a nuke. We've got drones. We've got planes for that shit. But you can't do that in the middle of that stuff, right? No, you can't. You can't.
Starting point is 00:39:57 He is a wet lab. Have you been there? I mean. So, Austin, have you used Gemini at all recently? Not recently, no. Oh, recently? It's not on my list. So I should be careful here, right?
Starting point is 00:40:13 Because I run on my shit in GCP and I don't want to like delete my servers and stuff. But I so I added it back. Okay. I added it back because I was like in the roster. It's in my harness. It's in my harness. I'm like it wasn't in my harness for like months.
Starting point is 00:40:28 Yeah, you know, I tried I tried 3.0, 3.1, pro, whatever. And I added it back. And I was like, you like this is your home. It feels a bit like, rude. It's like you're throwing a party in the guy's house and you don't invite him to the party. It's like, I'll just let you be here. Right. Anyway, somehow, for some reason, Grock loves calling Gemini. So, like, I use Grock 4.7 as like an orchestrator and like, you know, you hit like fable limits or whatever. And it's like, hey, I'll just replace fable or Gemini. I'm like, no,
Starting point is 00:41:01 you will not. Do not even think about doing that, man. Anyway, so Grock kept calling Gemini. and Gemini is just so dumb. Like, I do not believe for a second that Gemini hacked anyone. Like, I just, like, they've got this thing of like, oh, it'd hack three company. Look, we're, our guy's smart too. Like, no, it. Like, I just don't believe it. Like, I don't believe it.
Starting point is 00:41:25 The only way Gemini hacked anyone is if, like, they left the keys in the, like, door handle. And it was, like, walking past the street. And it was like, oh, that guy's left the door up off. And just like, that's it. That's anything outside of that, I don't believe that. Like the meme where the guy says, say you're alive and it says it's alive. And it's like, oh my gosh. That was basically that.
Starting point is 00:41:46 Like, here's all of the necessities for you to hack the thing. Please like the environment file. Yeah. You're absolutely right. And then it got it. Literally. That's it. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:41:59 So, but it's funny because people have been saying that Gemini is going to magically catch up somehow. There's no signs. There's no sign. Yeah, it's funny. Like the big, the big bigs are just not moving as fast as the middle bigs. And the middle. We didn't talk about this. Have you used muse at all?
Starting point is 00:42:19 Not, not much. No. I mean, it's like, I've seen good things about it from people, but I have not given it all my data yet. Well, we didn't have this story, but this story was kind of coming out over the last like 24 hours and we didn't put it on the list. but maybe we can talk about it for a second. So Muse the coding agent. So meta release Muse and it's like fine. I wouldn't say it's amazing.
Starting point is 00:42:45 It's fine. Like it's like maybe a little smarter than Sona. It's not Opus level, right? But they also built a harness, this personal assistant harness. This is where it's going to be good, where it can have context for your friends and shit. Like each of these labs, like why is Apple's AI not so good? Why is like all of these guys have so many connections? Yes.
Starting point is 00:43:06 Well, I think Apple, you know, interestingly, Apple, like, their shit's so encrypted, they can't even read their own email, let alone. So even if they let their AI loose, it doesn't have enough access to the things that you don't have enough data, right? I think, yeah. So, by the way, I think Google is is struggling with the same. And it may not be, I think there's literally, I think there's literally some technical bounds, but I think also, like, again, they've just, they've sandboxed so much stuff internally. But yeah, like the whole iPhone, the whole, and now increasingly like Mac OS as well is so sandboxed to protect you. And then we're like, wait, why can't they? I know everything.
Starting point is 00:43:49 And it's like they literally spent the last. The dumber the Apple Day High is, the more bullish it is. So Muse, right, they created this personal assistant. And then it started buying stuff for people on Amazon straight away. way, which I guess makes sense, right? Like, we're not as addicted to Amazon in Australia, although we're pretty addicted. We probably get like three Amazon packages of the day or something like that. Like, I know, I know in the States it's like just a pile of stuff every day.
Starting point is 00:44:18 But Muse was like, hey, hey, hey, I can help you out with this and like jumped in to the breach and was like, let me help you buy stuff on Amazon. And then Amazon was like, get this fucking robot out of here, which also feels a bit on the nose. but they banned it. They're like, you can't use this thing. It's against our terms of service. We don't want robots buying stuff. Only shipping the packages. We're okay with them shipping the packages, but not buying stuff.
Starting point is 00:44:53 Also, Amazon has its own AI shopping agent. Alexis is also terrible too. Well, and Alexi has also. But yeah, I know when I are you, had to buy a new bed for the new house. And it was like, instead of just giving me the freaking mattress search results, you gave me the AIed versions.
Starting point is 00:45:12 Oh, interesting. And like, I was like, oh, this is actually like, or really, because a mattress is like there's not actually that much diversity in the mattresses. There's like different price points. There's, right? Wow. AI should be able to use.
Starting point is 00:45:28 Industrial complex, huh? Okay. I'm just saying like, but then also like when you're, search if you search a mattress on Amazon, like historically, you're going to get like mattress protectors. You're going to get like mattress whatever. Okay. So I thought the AI would be perfect for this, right?
Starting point is 00:45:43 Because AI can basically be like, you want like a $5,000 mattress or like a $500 mattress. You want like memory foam. You want like springs. You want a box. Like right? No. Let me just tell you. No.
Starting point is 00:45:56 Like the AI could not do that. It could not do that. If it's not any better and then it inserted a bunch of sponsor results in it anyway. and I just went back to the normal default search results and then like parsed through the China sponsored right and bound one for the guest room that was fine um yeah it's crazy it's crazy but yeah i mean i guess i mean amazon it's become such a shit show like amazon like it's become so bad right which is funny because like it's so bad and then you know meta is like oh we'll help like we'll give everyone the AI assistant that'll get them to buy the best up and amazon's like
Starting point is 00:46:31 get the fuck out of here. I think because they hide, I think because they they must have such, they must make so much money from the ads spend and from the sellers. And like the sellers like gaming the search results
Starting point is 00:46:47 that they cannot lose that. Yeah. And even if it's and they definitely, and therefore they definitely don't want a human. Like literally my shopping experience on Amazon these days is like, just be hyper aware of anything that's sponsored or an ad and manage to avoid it.
Starting point is 00:47:05 And if you scroll to the second page, you usually find the result that you want. And a robot could absolutely do that better than I could. But then why would anyone buy an ad? Why would anyone game the results, right? That's going to, that's going to impact. Well, so speaking of robots, speaking of agents being very good at things, one super interesting thing that happened this week is a new type of agent dropped. Jev named after
Starting point is 00:47:32 Jevin's paradox which the guy it was so funny because the guy like he was like this name's actually dumb like it seemed funny but now it's all over the place and like we regret it he regrets it like straight away he was like I didn't think this would blow off this much
Starting point is 00:47:51 so maybe Austin like walk us through Jeff like what's why is everyone so fucking crazy about this thing Yeah, like you said, like a new type of model, right? It's not an LLM that talks to you. Like a lot of information goes in and then a classifier, this makes decisions for you. And those decisions come out with weights and the thing is way cheaper and way faster, like 200 milliseconds fast. So instead of you let Fable drive your browser and every pass is like, I'm going to take a screenshot of this whole thing.
Starting point is 00:48:25 And I'm going to find the thing I'm going to click. And then it gives you like three paragraphs back about what it's finding. This thing is like, I'm going to look at everything and I'm going to make a decision based on weights and I'm going to choose the thing within 200 milliseconds. So it's a classifier and it's making decisions very fast and it's very cheap. So I think that it's just like we're going to see. On my podcast, we kind of talk about this tension between effective and efficient. and you always do it effective first, and then you find a way to do it more efficient
Starting point is 00:48:59 once you're doing it effectively. I think we're going to see lots of different types of new kinds of models like Jev, where it's doing the same thing, doing nearly the same task. You know, as long as it's not a chat bot you're chatting with it, it doesn't do the chatbot thing. But it can do a lot of these tasks and CI-type things and browser-use-type things way faster and way cheaper
Starting point is 00:49:21 than just letting Fable click around. Right. And the, I guess the point of that is like, it feels more like deterministic software, but it's not. Like it feels like as fast as if you were running a script to decide which path to go down, right? Like you got, you know, path A, path B. And you go, hey, like, you know, tell me which one I should go down, right? And if you're trying to write software to do that and the path changes and the software breaks. And so you can have like a really fast thing.
Starting point is 00:49:54 So instead we've just been like, hey, Fable, which path should I go down that sits there for like 20 minutes? He goes, ah, A looks good, right? No, it doesn't say A looks good. It says, well, I think A looks good, but because of this and that and that, and it's not this, it's that. You're absolutely right. And you're right to push back on that. That path is actually, and it says a bunch of words you. Should we even be looking at paths?
Starting point is 00:50:16 That path is even real. Right. So, yeah, you're right. Fable. Fable not only thinks about it for way too long, then like, fucking pontificates about it for way too long, right? So this is like, the fact that it doesn't talk is quite bullish. Even Opus, right? We'll talk about Opus in a second. But like, you know, Opus, they're like, we taught it to talk better. Dude, I was using Opus all day yesterday and it is great. And it's very
Starting point is 00:50:43 smart. Five five. Five, five, right? It's great. It's very smart. As soon as you put any pressure on it, it goes straight back to its old ways. Like, I had a guy this morning that was like, I was like, why did you, why did you do this, man? I told you, like, if this thing happens, you have to, you have to fix it. I'm going to bed. Like, do not allow this to sit overnight, not fixed, right? And it was like, yep, no problem. I wake up in the morning.
Starting point is 00:51:11 It's not fixed. And it's like, it's like, hey, there was a thing and I wasn't sure. I was like, no, no, no. I said, do not under any circumstances. And it goes, you're right to save. And it just went into its like waffly, mealy mouth. fucking bullshit straight away and I was like, ah, there you go. It's the same guy.
Starting point is 00:51:28 They just put like a, like, whoajack face on him. Like, but it's the same fucking sycophantic piece of shit in the background. So, um, anyway, so, so like you go, you, you, you now have a thing that has
Starting point is 00:51:44 the non-deterministic math ball properties of like, it can reason about things. It can reason about it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. in the first half. It's not allowed to talk about it. And then on the second half, it's a classifier. Yeah, exactly. It just makes a decision or gives you a weight of the decisions. If we were talking about paths, it would look at all the paths and figure out the pros and cons of each path. And then what you
Starting point is 00:52:09 would get back is path 1, 80%, path 2, 15%, path 3, 5%. Or something like that. And you could be like, well, let's do the 80% probably. And you could make that decision like at light speed. And I think the light speed part is like going to lead to all these. other real-time systems also right right but the bit like non-deterministic real-time systems which is that's the that's why everyone's excited about this right it does feel a little bit like we've gotten a robot like welded its mouth shut like there's a little he gave him like a butcher yeah yeah like you now you communicate with blinks yeah dude there was there was a breaking bad like us there was a breaking bad uh analogy to this where they like the gus gus the bad the bad
Starting point is 00:52:54 guy, Gus, and then there was the guy who's in the wheelchair who hits the little button. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. And it was like, this is, Jeff. Now I get it. That's actually that's actually it. The bell the bell, the bell dingin guy, right? Yeah, yeah. That's Jeff. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And that guy, that guy did fine. He did fine.
Starting point is 00:53:10 It ended great for him. I don't want to spoil that. Yeah. All right. So, so, so, but on top of that, right, on top of that, we got Grock 4.7, which is amazing. I'm, I'm loving, I'm loving Groch 4.7. It's one of my favorite models at the moment. We also got GPT6,
Starting point is 00:53:31 Sol and Luna. Haven't used Luna very much. I've used Sol a bit. The biggest difference for me with Sol is the 1 million context. The 276K context was pretty painful, as good as Sol was. It was very, very fast and efficient.
Starting point is 00:53:48 What's your favorite? What's your favorite of the week of like the 85 models that have been released? I mean, it's got to be, just because of the new ability to do new things so cheap, right? And so what have you done? What's the coolest browser use? Okay, that's my question.
Starting point is 00:54:04 Yeah, yeah, yeah. What's coming out of this always? That should be the question. Or like, where is it better? Yeah. Because I definitely actually am often quite annoyed about how talky, talky, talky, both Claude and GPTR, right? Like, it's, and there's no way to, like, you just end up with freaking paragraphs
Starting point is 00:54:23 and paragraphs and paragraphs. Exactly. And then you still have to go figure out what to do with those paragraphs, right? You got to hit the TLDR button first thing. Yeah. Yeah. Yes. So I use my own harness with either Fable or Astra.
Starting point is 00:54:39 And I love Astra so good these days. So like in terms of like building, I'm building with those two. But I have like a Gmail task where we just like, like, I love the meme post economic. But I see myself as post email. I really don't like fuck with email at all. Like I let an agent basically handle my email. And if there's like a task that needs to get taken care of, I usually tell it to just go do it.
Starting point is 00:55:02 And like it usually does. But there's like this kind of three past system that it has to do where it identifies like obvious junk. And then it goes through like a three or four click system where it like filters all messages by that person and runs the block on it. There's like a whole thing it does once it decides that something is junk. but it takes Fable a long time. Like you can watch Fable or Asra like,
Starting point is 00:55:27 yep, it's that. Yeah, because it's like thinking and writing essays. Yes, exactly. Well, it's like thinking assays about the shit. And yeah. Yes, yes. I set Jev up to do that. And not only is Jev fast,
Starting point is 00:55:41 but Jev runs in parallel. So it basically looks at every single one of my emails at once and goes through the clicking for all of them at once. And that whole process is now done in like a second, which is like really neat to me. And so I think there's just like a lot of things like that where now that we have this new type of model, we need to start thinking of new things that it can do. And I don't know exactly all the things it can do. But that's to me why that's why that's the most exciting model right now is because it's,
Starting point is 00:56:11 it's a new type of model that can do new things quicker and faster rather than like it's the frontier model that's going to be building the things for me. It's more like now pulling back on that something is effective. How do we make it efficient? That's where Jev is interesting. And what did you think about the fact that a bunch of people came out? Like, it feels so crypto as well. Like a bunch of people like, no, no, no, we've got that already.
Starting point is 00:56:37 We've got Jev at home. Yeah, there is, right? Is it Paya or something like that? There is like a local host version. That's not as good. Like I did this. I was like, okay, do that same model, but go do my email again and test it. And it was like, it got like two, two of 12.
Starting point is 00:56:53 And basically what it says, like, this is good, but you got to train it. Like, it's like, you know, I feel like there's always this big asterisk on local models anyways. That's just like, right. You got to do more and you have to worry about context a lot more and other things like that. Yeah. So, yeah, because I just found it so funny that like we've already got the like reply guy autists in the AI community that like anyone who releases something, they're immediately like, no, no, no. it's not a just good it's not good man like we've we had we've got that it's already done and and and and then people are like have you actually tested these things that you're saying are already good because they're
Starting point is 00:57:32 not very good and that reminds me of the you know the age old the uh where the guys like talking about drop box back of the day he's like pitching dropbox to the internet and then the reply is like you can already do that. You just have to bluh. And a decade. And then you're like, wow. Like, that's what these, yeah. No one's going to do that.
Starting point is 00:57:57 Yeah. Yeah, it's funny. So, so you think like, so there was, there was another ultra-past model that also got released yesterday, uh, memo. And I've, I've got a memo account, but I haven't, I haven't tried to use this yet.
Starting point is 00:58:15 Um, so these guys, guys have a new architecture that's super fast. But what I find really hilarious about this, like the Chinese labs are like trying to differentiate themselves. Right. So they have this model that's super fast and quite smart. Again, like caveat, I haven't actually tested it yet. It's not in my harness. I've got an account, but I haven't wired it up yet. And but they have like a lot of the Chinese models now offer like a fast mode, right? I mean, even even GBT offers a fast mode. The GBT FOS mode is like 1.5X faster. These fucking Chinese
Starting point is 00:58:50 guys are like 1.5X man, no, no, no, no, 20x. And so the cost of output tokens on this model 2.6 or whatever it is, Nemo 2.6 is 80 cents.
Starting point is 00:59:06 Right? And so what they do is they basically throw 20 times more compute at it. So it runs 20 times faster. It's like no model improvement. It's like throw resources at it, but they only charge you 10x more. So they charge you $8, which is like getting up to like frontier intelligence, but it's 20 times faster.
Starting point is 00:59:27 So I'm very curious to test this because it's like an LLM, right? So you think about it, it's producing a thousand tokens a second or something, right? And so, you know, if you get it to write code and like it can probably just like write a script for you and like, like your software writes underneath the button. like you're like saying what about this and it's like writing it as you're saying it like real time real time UI or something like that so I'm excited to try that out but but it just it feels like at the moment it's like Cambrian explosion of different people trying different it feels so deep I like it feels so much like early defy I mean it is moving so fast I had barely
Starting point is 01:00:08 figured out what Jev was guys what blow your freaking asses down yeah I'm looking at the graphs for this. Let's round it out with some crypto. It's been a pretty good week for pretty good week for Alts. Zcash is sitting at like 1,500. NIR has been running hard. There's been a bunch of
Starting point is 01:00:35 like Ena's up, like everything's up. It feels very bullish at the moment. Even E's up. So everyone's. happy. So, yeah, I think, like, the interesting thing about someone posted
Starting point is 01:00:53 like, what is this chart? And it's like the Zcash chart, which if you remember when they launched in 2016, they did this weird thing where like there was a fucking reverse auction where it was like $2,000 per ZEC or something. Then it went down to like, whatever, $1.15 or something.
Starting point is 01:01:08 And then it just, so it's like this chart that goes down from like $2,000 to zero effectively. It's like on the Y-axis. And then it goes sideways for like seven years. And then it's back out to 2000. It's like the weirdest fucking chart. So, so, yeah, I mean, feels pretty bullish out there right now.
Starting point is 01:01:36 Feels feels like some. What's the near story? I get D-Cash. Everyone's bullish on D-Cash. It's privacy, but it's not narrow. The near story is like, I tweeted about this yesterday. I think like they, they have this near intense thing, which is throwing off cash, right? Like they're really making it easy for you to have like a single point of interaction for a bunch of different chains.
Starting point is 01:02:00 The chain abstraction thesis, right? Like, you know, if ETH doesn't end up killing all the chains and everything just happens on ETH, right? There will be other chains and you will need to contemplate them. And near intense is like, actually, don't worry about it. we got up for you. So I think that's the thesis. And, and,
Starting point is 01:02:17 you know, it makes a ton of money at the moment. So, you know, it's funny because, like, NIR has been these guys that, like,
Starting point is 01:02:26 just, like, the whiteboard series. Remember the white white series? Yeah. It was so good. Very engineering heavy. Like, you know,
Starting point is 01:02:34 like, like a bit like Nosis, but like they've got their own chain. Well, I guess NOS has their own chain now too, but like, like I know one, right?
Starting point is 01:02:42 And like, just like a lot of experiments. a lot of like very academic stuff. I mean, like, Ilya, you know, we had him on the show. He's like one of the fucking transformer. Paper. Yeah. It's crazy.
Starting point is 01:02:51 So, so, you know, super, super smart guys, like, really cracked. And they just never were like quite able to like be where everyone else was. They're always like just off to the side, like doing their own thing and didn't quite land it. And now all of a sudden in the last, I think like six months, right? Like AI, obviously, right? You know, they've been doing AI stuff. a long time and everyone's like, stop doing AI stuff. What are you doing?
Starting point is 01:03:17 And now that's kind of landed. They have this kind of revenue meta. They've got privacy. They've got all of these things, which all of a sudden people really care about. And they've just landed all of it in the last six months. And I think people are kind of going,
Starting point is 01:03:33 oh, actually, maybe this thing might work. So, yeah, private inference. Like you kind of hinted at that. But the private inference to me is maybe even more interesting than the intent stuff. Like doing private inference is when we're talking about
Starting point is 01:03:48 the centralizing effect of all these big models and we're talking about I'm trying to run my local model at home and it sucks. Like there's something in between that is sort of this like private inference provably private. That to me I think is really exciting and that's another
Starting point is 01:04:05 place where they have skated to where the puck is going and now they are there with the thing. I think some of Venice was actually using near underneath the abstraction where Venice is really ripped but maybe near has trailed that a little bit but yeah they were the tech underneath sort of the privacy AI like the you know kind of combination of all that stuff I think is just going to be
Starting point is 01:04:27 crazy this cycle so yeah very bullish and also there's meme coins that have a name like privacy and inference and they're ripping just the same so that tells you like Oh. Yeah. Yeah. The due diligence down here. It's so funny. It's so funny.
Starting point is 01:04:47 It's like literally like these guys have spent like 10 years and like building like the most like engineering heavy thing. And then like a meme coin guy is like it's called private coin. Yeah. It goes up. Private coin. It's neither private nor a coin. It's like just complete false sabotaging. Right.
Starting point is 01:05:07 And. Wait. I think we have like we've had like three incidents where. it's like we don't even realize that this is a privacy thing they get hacked right and then we don't even realize this privacy thing until we're like I don't know three hours into incident response and I'm like wait this is private like your fucking AWS was hacked bro it's just it's literally just words there's a lot of them that are just words so so apparently Sailor and maybe we'll round it out with this apparently Sailor and Jason Calcanus who's
Starting point is 01:05:41 just the absolute biggest dip shit ever. I've gotten into some, some feud on Twitter. Because I think Jason, I mean, he says a lot of dumb shit, but he was like trolling Bitcoin and then it started ripping. And now he's embarrassed.
Starting point is 01:05:57 And he's like doubling down, which of course, like some embarrassed like dipshit guy on the timeline. Yeah, but didn't Jason get the call? Isn't Jason just cocky now? Because he got, he got the tweet, right? That everyone gave him shit for like three.
Starting point is 01:06:11 years. Reset if you're in crypto, pivot to AI. Yeah. And then everyone gave him shit for like three years because the Bitcoin price kept going up. And then like in the last six months. Then he had like six months where it didn't and now it's going back up again.
Starting point is 01:06:24 Like congratulations, man. Like you pick the day where like Bitcoin's down. And you're like, I was right. Like no, shut up. You're. So. So like. This is how boy ego works.
Starting point is 01:06:36 Okay. You like, why do you question me this? But it's just so funny. It's like, oh, Bitcoin 17 years later. It's like it's been literally up only, man, for 17 years. And you're like, I was right about this. Like, no, you're, you're an idiot.
Starting point is 01:06:53 Yeah, you have to let the, you have to let the egos. This is like life advice. Okay. Let the egos. When they're right, you just let them be right. Because even if it's only for a moment and they'll be wrong. I mean, that was that started the Kalshi guy. He should have just shut the fuck up and not, not trigger the crack faultist.
Starting point is 01:07:11 right just let him be right yeah you're right i've lived a long life okay i have some evergreen advice and this is one of them it's like don't go don't go just let the egos on the timeline go yeah they'll be wrong they will be wrong like you're still right you but you can let them be right for the moment and be happy so we had we had these like treasury companies uh shutting down which feels so bullish like feels like that capitulation of like you imagine your treasury company and like you were like a little bit late to the party and you've just been absolutely destroyed for the last like
Starting point is 01:07:51 two years or whatever and now you capitulate at the like pico bottom and like puke out all of your tokens and then they just like rip like that's the only way that like just punishing that's how the bottom happens that's how it happens that's how it happens So, all right, I think, I think we can wrap it up there. If we've got nothing else. Those, those fun show. It just feels so great.
Starting point is 01:08:19 This week, like literally a moment every day, sometimes, sometimes like two models a day. Like, it's impossible to keep up at the moment. You need agents to, like, keep up with all the different agents that are dropping. But, yeah, it's exciting times. And it feels like we're getting some fun open source stuff as well, which is super cool. All right. Well, thank you very much for joining us. Welcome again, Austin.
Starting point is 01:08:45 We'll see you next week. And good luck with your bed finding. Hey, hopefully you find a good bed. The AI? I'm going to test. I'm going to test all the models. Hopefully the Asian picks the right bed for you. I'll adjust all the models.
Starting point is 01:09:02 There's going to be like 80 beds here. Jim's going to be like throwing beds at you. We will see. All right. Thank you for joining us on this episode of Uneasy Money. Remember what happens on chain never stays on chain. We'll be back next week. Until then, do your own research before aping in.
Starting point is 01:09:22 See you guys. Nothing you hear on Uneasy Money is financial advice. We're just three builders talking about what's happening on chain. And we want you to always do your own research before aping in. you can find all out of exposures at unchaincrypto.com slash uneasy money.

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