Unchained - Will Bitcoin's New Phase Change It Forever? And Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead? - Ep. 974

Episode Date: December 10, 2025

The crypto sector has celebrated a lot of policy wins in 2025, but price wise, it has arguably been a year to forget. In this episode of Unchained, Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen and Arca Po...rtfolio Manager David Nage join host Laura Shin to discuss the disappointing crypto markets and why their outlook on 2026 is more positive. They also explained why Vanguard's crypto pivot is a huge deal, questioned whether Bitcoin could ever be unseated by privacy coins, and discussed why they don’t see the bubble in the DAT market hurting crypto. Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event.  Thank you to our sponsor, Figure! Unlock your crypto’s potential today at Figure!  Guests: Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise David Nage, Portfolio Manager at Arca Previous appearance on Unchained: The LayerZero-Wormhole Contest Shows How to Value a Crypto Business Links: Unchained: Bitcoin Resets Above $90,000, but Can Bulls Keep the Momentum? Bits + Bips: Vanguard’s Crypto U-Turn, Tether/MSTR FUD & Picking Future Winners Bits + Bips: Why the Markets Now Have a Bullish Setup Franklin Templeton Rolls Out First Tokenized Fund in Hong Kong Why Every Company Will Have a Stablecoin — and Why One L2 Isn’t Enough Grayscale Files to List Zcash ETF What Ethereum Will Look Like When It Implements Its New Privacy Focus Other relevant links: Bank of America Broadens Access to Crypto Funds SEC's Paul Atkins touts 'tokenization’ as key to modernizing US markets Larry Fink and Rob Goldstein on how tokenization could transform finance My Highest-Conviction Bet in Crypto Stablecoin payments on Stripe cost 1.5% of the transaction amount. Credit card fees are as high as 3.5%. Less than half of the cost! Bitcoin’s “Facebook Moment”  Timestamps: 🚀 00:00 Introduction 🤔 01:42 Is the four-year cycle dead?  💡 3:50 Why David says Bitcoin is having its “Facebook moment” ⚡️ 11:42 Why Ryan does not believe Bitcoin OGs are disillusioned 💥 14:43 Why David thinks liquidity may be returning to the market  ❕️ 17:21 What is driving Vanguard and Bank of America's adoption of crypto 🚨 24:34 The importance of Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund's ETF transition 💡 28:30 Why BITW excludes memecoins, stablecoins and, wrapped tokens, etc. 🔮 31:15 What tokenization means for the future of finance 👀 35:56 What the future holds for digital asset treasuries ⚠️ 39:45 How unwinding of DATs could affect Bitcoin 🧏 41:11 What Stripe's 1.5% fees suggest about the future of stablecoin competition  📈 46:43 Why David says stablecoin adoption is similar to email 🤔 48:55 Could Bitcoin be toppled as the privacy meta rises? 🔮 56:45 Ryan and David share their 2026 crypto outlook ✴️ 1:02:01 Ryan’s 2026 Bitcoin price target Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 My view personally is that the four-year cycle is dead and will prove itself dead in 2026. In general, institutional adoption and regulatory clarity and additional institutional infrastructure, I think, has reduced the size of drawdowns and added liquidity and buffers to the market. With Larry Fink stomping his feet that every asset, including equities and bonds, are going to be tokenized, you would be hard-pressed if you were vanguard to see BlackRock, you know, saying these things and doing these things and building up the capacity to do these things and saying, sure, we're just going to stay the course and say that Bitcoin and crypto or, you know, rat poison, you know, squared as, you know, as Munger said. That doesn't work because institutional investors, family offices, they all talk to each other. They're all different, but they all talk to each other. Welcome to Unchained. You're a no-hype resource for all things, Crypto. I'm your host, Laura Shin. Before we get started, a quick reminder that the new here on Unchained is Investment Advice. The show is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and my guest and I may hold assets discussed on the show.
Starting point is 00:01:12 For more disclosures, visit Unchained Crypto.com. Looking to unlock your crypto's liquidity? Figure offers crypto-backed loans with an industry low 8.91% fixed rate. They're the only major provider with decentralized MPC custody and new, liquidation protection. Take out a loan at figuremarkets.co slash unchained. I'm here with Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at BitWise, and David Nage, portfolio manager at ARCA. Welcome, Ryan and David. Hey, Laura. Hey, great to be here, Laura. So, y'all, I was on vacation last week and actually not checking crypto Twitter or crypto news very much, but it looks like I didn't miss a lot, at least
Starting point is 00:01:53 when I look at the market activity. I think if, if you, I think, if you, you had asked most people in crypto a year ago, they wouldn't have predicted that the price of Bitcoin would be lower than it was back then. So we're going to unpack what's going on in this market. We'll give a sneak preview into 2026 as well. So Ryan and David, we'll start with your general outlook right now. There had been a lot of talk earlier this year, even the year prior, that the four-year cycle was over. I actually was leaving in that direction myself. But that thesis now looks like it may have been wrong. So I'm just curious, like, what's your take on where we are in the cycle, whether or not it's even appropriate to use that phrasing, you know,
Starting point is 00:02:38 whether cycles exist anymore? And just your general views on why it is that the markets have been so choppy. Ryan, why don't we start with you? Yeah, that sounds great. A lot of investors that we speak to a bit wise have actually been asking about the four-year cycle, which I find particularly interesting because most of these are institutional investors, and that means that they're paying attention to what people are talking about in the market and what people are talking about on Twitter. But our view, a bit wise, in my view personally, is that the four-year cycle is dead and will prove itself dead in 2026. I think there's a number of forces at work here in previously cycles that are not as impactful this time around, which would be things like the having
Starting point is 00:03:19 and interest rates were more of a factor before and less of a factor today. And in general, institutional adoption and regulatory clarity and additional institutional infrastructure, I think has reduced the size of drawdowns and added liquidity and buffers to the market. So I think that we're not going to see those crazy all-time high, you know, spikes that we've seen before, like the blow off tops. But I also think that means that the four-year cycle of three great years and one bust year is dead and that 2026 will be an up year for crypto assets. And David, what about you?
Starting point is 00:03:51 So mine is a little bit more of a take on looking at the history of what's happened over the last 15 odd years with Bitcoin and other digital assets. And so I recently wrote a blog post calling for Bitcoin having its Facebook moment. You can find that on my socials. And what I looked at relative to everything that's happened from a macro, micro perspective, the setup was there. And so let's talk about that. So we had a U.S. shutdown of the government, you know, starting at the end of September all the way for 41 some odd days. And what happened there was you had a buildup of the Treasury General account. This is like the checking account for the Treasury and the Fed.
Starting point is 00:04:37 And basically, this is where dollars come in from taxes, from tariffs, from revenue. And they usually go out to pay for contractors and for all the workers out there that are keeping the plane. up in the air and landing safely, those types of things. And so the Treasury General account, while the shutdown was happening, basically was taking in money, but not able to put out money into the market, into the banks. And so that Treasury General account reached astronomical heights over a trillion dollars on one point in October. And this is not a healthy per se parameter.
Starting point is 00:05:12 This is not something that you want to see. What happened, you know, from a banking perspective is that we started to do. see some levels of distress. You start to see the secure overnight funding rate, which was, used to be LIBOR. It's a rate where basically it's a determination of the liquidity and the kind of the ease, if you will, of liquidity between banks lending, you know, big banks and regional banks. That actually hit a rate where you would not want to see. It was over about 4.2, 4.25 where it normally sits around 3.8, 3.7. That's usually where they like it. And so it was very high. And so you started to see this imbalance between secured and unsecured
Starting point is 00:05:51 lending, which was also inverted as well, too, the rates and the yields there were inverted, which is not a healthy thing to see. And so you saw what happened after the shutdown ended, thankfully, is that there was a lot of forecast where there was about two weeks after the shutdown where, okay, the Treasury General account was roughly around a trillion, 950 billion, give or take, and it's normally in the range of about $750 to $800 billion. So roughly $150 to $200 billion who is supposed to roll off and go into the banks, almost like a liquidity injection. This normally, and I looked at this and you can see it in the paper, over three periods of time has happened over the last five or six years. This normally is very good for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:06:40 But however, as you alluded to, Laura, you were on vacation and Bitcoin really wasn't doing very much. And so this really led me to start to take a look at why. And we'll talk more about this. But in my opinion, Bitcoin, and you can see this from the numbers too, long-term holders. You can see this also and some evidence out there. There is a little bit of a rotation where you can start to see from long-term holders that have been around for 10, 12, 13 years who have probably started to see the institutionalization
Starting point is 00:07:09 of Bitcoin as an attack, something that they don't necessarily agree with. they have believed that Bitcoin was going to be a bank in your hands. And now they're trying to see Vanguard and they're trying to see, you know, fidelity and all the other large tier one institutions embrace it, which is obviously something that many of us were hopeful for and something that we thought was going to happen. They might not necessarily agree with that. They might start to see that as centralization and censorship and something that they were really against initially. And so I think we're at this point right now. We're in this very, very difficult rotation where I equated it to Facebook. where initially when Facebook IPOed, you had a situation where it was majority of the users were teenagers and early 20-year-olds.
Starting point is 00:07:55 They used it to get in touch with each other and set up meeting greets and hangouts and going to bars and everything like that. And then all of a sudden, about five or six years into the IPO of Facebook, you started to see the adults, the parents, the grandparents are coming in and starting to DM their kids. and it started to become a place where it wasn't very cool. And it wasn't something that, you know, really attracted them anymore. So that's why they went to Snapchat and they went to TikTok and all the other different social media apparatusies out there. And so I think we're in that type of a situation right now where we're seeing this kind of painful rotation between those that had this more radical, revolutionary idea to those that are now coming in from the institutional side. there are starting to be much more long-term holders that want to offer this to people in their 401Ks. And so this is a very, very particular interesting time in the evolution of Bitcoin and digital assets where we're starting to see that rotation.
Starting point is 00:08:54 That is, I find that so interesting. The one thing that I want to ask you about is, so I understand that money has network effects, but money is also different from a social network. So like the way you described, you know, people. hanging out on Facebook and then wanting to hang out elsewhere. I don't know if that phrase, you know, phrasing really applies to something like Bitcoin or any type of financial assets. So, but it could. I just wanted to hear you just kind of explain why you think that analogy works or like what
Starting point is 00:09:30 might be different about it. Yeah. Again, really, you know, from my days in my early days when I started to take a look at Bitcoin and started to talk to Bitcoin artists and other people in the space, there was. this idea of, as I said again, being a bank in your own wallet in your hands, having control of that. And what we've seen over the last year and a half or so, two years with ETFs, and obviously congratulations to Bitwise on the work that they've been doing there. You've seen ETFs. You've seen, again, as I said, you know, Bitcoin and other digital assets being offered potentially
Starting point is 00:10:02 in 401ks. You've seen executive orders that are obviously trying to really broaden the horizons of adoption institutionally of Bitcoin and other digital assets. And so, again, the kind of the way that I've thought about this is that, sure, it's money and social networks are not the same, but there was a reason why people, especially the, the OGs, if you will, really started to flock to Bitcoin in the early parts of the days because they wanted a change from 2008 and 2009. They saw many things wrong with the financial markets at that time, and they saw that this was an opportunity to write wrongs.
Starting point is 00:10:38 very similarly speaking, you know, you started to see, as I said, the early adopters of Facebook, they wanted a place to, you know, to network and to kind of, you know, hang out and kind of talk and communicate. And they started to see that, you know, big brands were starting to get Facebook accounts and starting to advertise them and starting to, you know, basically make this a place where it wasn't just about hanging out. It was all of a sudden, you know, seeing an ad for Louis Vuitton or for Porsche or for Walmart. That really changed the whole apparatus and the whole. whole experience. And so while, sure, Facebook has done phenomenally well now meta, has done phenomenally well,
Starting point is 00:11:15 especially if you look from a stock perspective, after that kind of exodus happening six years after the IPO. That was a very painful rotation where you started to see the teens and the early kind of, the early kind of demographics switch out for this older, more mature demographic that we're seeing today. So there is similarities. It's not, you know, apples to apples, but it definitely. you started to see this, there is a very big mind shift on change that has happened.
Starting point is 00:11:43 That's interesting. Yeah, I don't know. I think the theory has been that people sold because it reached a certain price thresholds. But you're basically saying that they sold due to ideology. And I would be interested for Ryan's reaction because Ryan kind of represents that transition like his company. That's what they do. So Ryan, what's your reaction to that? Yeah, I think it's a really great analogy for early adopters that became long-term holders transitioning out of an asset or a network and then new adopters who will eventually become long-term holders transitioning into using that network or adopting Bitcoin. So I think it's a really good analogy. I do wonder if the reason for those early adopters selling is more because Bitcoin went to $100,000 or $125,000.
Starting point is 00:12:32 They've held Bitcoin for 10 plus years. their gains are astronomical. They've also lived through 60, 70% drawdowns multiple times. And for when they saw signs that those drawdowns might be happening again, I mean, we spoke at the beginning of this about the four-year cycle. And if they really had fears of the four-year cycle repeating itself, it made sense that that 100,000 psychological threshold was a great place to sell. I know what we're seeing a bitwise when we were with a number of OG bitcoinsers in Wales
Starting point is 00:13:00 is that they're using things like covered call strategies to generate options income and to also exit long-term positions at their desired price levels of 100 or above 100K. So I do think that we have seen this transition happen with the launch of VTFs from early adopters and really the OGs and the retail adopters of Bitcoin into institutional adoption. And I do think that's a lot like what happens with IPOs. You have the early employees and the founders and the early investors who have been invested in these, you know, startup companies for a decade or more and have worked really, really hard and they've gritted their teeth through tough times and stuck with it. And so when a company IPOs, that's the liquidity event where they're going to take advantage
Starting point is 00:13:44 of that and they're going to take profits. But at the same time other investors come in, institutions come in and they buy those assets. And as mentioned, Facebook's done remarkably well since it's IPO. There was a period where it chopped sideways. I think that's the period that we're going through. with Bitcoin right now. But a lot of the institutions that we work with were buying Bitcoin through ETFs that are buying crypto for options, income overlays, or running the basis trade are really
Starting point is 00:14:12 here to stay in this market. And they find this market increasingly attractive because of the return profile or the volatility profile or the low correlation with other assets. And a lot of the investors that we speak to are excited that we have this pullback because they can finally allocate to Bitcoin now. that it's trading below 100K and they have the ETFs and they're building positions. They're costing, cost averaging down. And I think that these are long term oriented holders that are going to be here for the next
Starting point is 00:14:41 decade plus. Interest in Bitcoin and purchasing of Bitcoin. But obviously that hasn't quite panned out. And I was wondering why you thought that was and what you thought might change that. And either one of you can go. I think what we're seeing and as we're talking right now, Obviously, if you look at a chart right now, you're seeing a nice little rebound here. Ethereum's of about 8.6%.
Starting point is 00:15:05 Bitcoin's up about 4.4%. It is interesting. I just looked at my charts, and I looked at the Treasury General account, the TGA. And if you look at that chart over the last three or four days, the TGA has drained about $80-plus billion, which is good. Which means that, as I said again, liquidity is really starting to hit the banks and the financial system. If that's the reason why, that's, again, we deal with theoreticals. We try to obviously have the data. We try to have observational information in front of us.
Starting point is 00:15:40 That could be one of reasons why we're seeing a nice little bounce right now. There's also, as I've seen, speculation that, you know, tomorrow there could be a set cut. There's also speculation that we could have a new Fed chair, which would be very accommodative to easing, quantitative easing. And so, you know, I think those are some of the things. the things that we're seeing today. I would love to hear, obviously, other opinions, though. No, I think that's exactly right. I mean, if you look back at this other event that happened about a week ago or on December 1st is that the Fed ended its two and a half year quantitative
Starting point is 00:16:15 tightening program that really began as a reaction to the inflation and issues of COVID in June 20 or July 2022. And that program ended on December 1st. And I think was the second. largest single-day liquidity injection since COVID. And so that's a very big deal as well. And the price of Bitcoin is up nearly 10% since that happened on December 1st. So I think that combined with the TGA reopening, combined with hopes of an interest rate cut at tomorrow's meeting and hopes of more cuts in 2026. If we get a hawkish Fed chair and we see the things that, you know, the market's
Starting point is 00:16:56 expecting when it comes to rate cuts, I think right now, Polymarkets, projecting a 95% of a rate cut tomorrow. So those liquidity elements are definitely playing a role, in our opinion, on investors' outlooks for risk assets. And I think it's making its way through the market, you know, at the surface as well. Okay. So let's now talk a little bit more about things happening in the Tradfai world because, you know, to David's point earlier about how we're at this moment where there's all this institutional adoption, there's been even bigger news. You know, I shouldn't say bigger, but just like that, you know, that, those doors keep opening. So, you know, one of the bigger bits of news is about Vanguard, finally opening its doors to
Starting point is 00:17:41 crypto ETFs. As you're famously declaring that crypto was not worth investing in. There was also Bank of America slash Merrill Lynch, allowing its financial advisors to recommend four different Bitcoin ETFs. I was curious for why you thought it was that Vanguard finally had a change of part, why we're seeing this move from Bank of America, and like, what you thought all of this would mean for crypto going forward. Yeah, I'm happy to give this one a go. Look, it's like Lynn Alden says, but nothing stops this train. It was inevitable that Vanguard ultimately was going to allow
Starting point is 00:18:16 their clients to invest in crypto because otherwise they risk losing their clients and they don't want to do that. We also saw Bank of America and Merrill Lynch talk about how their private wealth managers of financial advisors can start suggesting crypto, allocating crypto and client accounts come January. Over the past three months, we've seen a number of other financial institutions and wirehouses start onboarding crypto ETF access. So I think this is a wave of institutional demand. And it comes from the clients and the financial advisors asking about it. I mean, a bit wise, we talk to financial advisors at work at these firms every single day. And they've told us that they've been asking for access to these ETFs since they launched in
Starting point is 00:18:58 of 2024, their clients have been asking them for access to it. They don't want to lose those clients if they go elsewhere. They don't want their clients to start investing on their own. And then it's outside of the wealth management plan they've created and the assets they can bill on, et cetera. But the reality is that these are huge institutions. They turn very, very, very slow. And one data point that we find interesting a bit wise, perhaps you will too, is that on average, it takes eight meetings before an investor that we meet with ultimately makes an allocation to Bitcoin, which is incredible because those meetings typically happen once a quarter. So you can imagine that if those meetings started when the ETFs launched in January,
Starting point is 00:19:39 the eighth meeting is happening right now. And that's just indicative of how long it takes institutional investors in financial advisors to really become comfortable with an asset, complete their due diligence, go through the risk and investment committee processes and meetings and decisions, talk to their clients, and then make allocations. So I think institutional adoption was inevitable. Vanguard was always going to change its stance. And I think that's okay. I mean, Larry Fink years ago called Bitcoin an Index for Money Laundering. And he was just on stage at a major conference this week talking about tokenization and Bitcoin as two of the biggest developments in markets over the next 10 to 20 years. So I think it's okay for people to change.
Starting point is 00:20:20 I think it was inevitable. And of course, we're really excited about these. institutional doors opening for Bitcoin and for other crypto assets because institutional investors control tens of trillions of dollars of wealth. Most of that hasn't been able to access crypto for the past 15 years and it's just starting. Yeah, I was going to just say I've seen institutional kind of follow the the lions into the den, if you will. BlackRock is 13.5 trillion AUM. It is the largest asset manager in the world.
Starting point is 00:20:55 And the CEO of Black Rock, as you just alluded to, a week ago just said he admitted that he was wrong at the Deal Book Summit. And they have gone full tilt into this, especially with Larry Fink stomping his feet that every asset, including equities and bonds, are going to be tokenized. You would be hard pressed if you were Vanguard to see Black Rock. you know, saying these things and doing these things and building up the capacity to do these things and saying, sure, we're just going to stay the course and say that Bitcoin and crypto or, you know, rat poison, you know, squared as, you know, as Munger said. That doesn't work because institutional investors, family offices, they all talk to each other. They're all different, but they all talk to each other. They get together every week, every month at luncheons, they talk about what they're doing,
Starting point is 00:21:47 they talk about what they're being pitched, they talk about the deals that they're looking at. and when they're representative from Black Rock or they're representative from Fidelity or whoever may be, or KKR, you know, talks to them about deals that they're looking at, talks to them about what they're looking at. You know, it starts to have the cycle. And it takes a long time, as you alluded to, but once it happens, it happens pretty fast. No one wants to be the last one on the bus. And so I think that's the experience that we're seeing right now is that Black Rock really broke the ceiling, if you will. Fidelity, you know, as I should definitely make a mentioning, as Abigail Johnson was, you know, out there recently talking about Bitcoin and talking about all their work.
Starting point is 00:22:29 You know, they started this back in 2013, 14 or so, experimenting with Bitcoin, experimenting with crypto. They were one of the first, but Black Rock coming in at such velocity and such the scope, I think really started to make all the institutional kind of, kind of delegators out there take a real take a real notice of this and start to really prepare and start to get things going. Second point, and then I'll be quiet. This can't happen without regulatory clarity. And this, I think, is incredibly important. And it's that over the last nine months of this new administration, the ability to have genius passed. What we are seeing and hearing about clarity had a fantastic call thanks to the digital chamber, hearing Senator Jillibrand from
Starting point is 00:23:18 New York talk about how they are looking to create real regulation that does not put digital assets in a box that was created 80 years ago, necessarily, you know, speaking about, quote unquote, like how we test. How do you actually create something that is not necessarily a security and not necessarily a commodity, but has a little bit of both of those and maybe a security at the end of the day, it may be a commodity at the end of the day, but it needs some time to kind of manifest and become what it is. Hearing that, And hearing and seeing what the regulators and policymakers are doing this year, I think also has had a tremendous lift on the institutions out there that want to get involved with this. Everyone from the State Street to, you know, obviously anyone else out there, Schwab, you know, these are all institutions that are waiting.
Starting point is 00:24:07 And I think, you know, one of the things I saw a few months ago, Ryan Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, was basically all but saying, we're waiting for this to be done for, of regulation to be passed and written into law for us to come in. This is, you know, I think that's what we're saying right now. Okay. So let's also now talk about some news that Ryan and Bitwise have today, which is that Bitwise has now turned its Bitwise 10 crypto index fund into an ETF. Ryan, tell us about this news and why it's significant. The Bitwise 10 crypto index, the Bitwise 10 crypto index fund transitioning into an ETF is
Starting point is 00:24:48 something that is one of the main reasons why a lot of people that joined Bitwise did join BitWise many, many years ago. This is our first and largest fund that we created. It's the top 10 crypto assets by market cap. Really, it's the S&P 500 of crypto. And the reason so many of us join BitWise to champion this product is because a lot of investors allocate to many different asset classes through index funds. They don't want to pick and choose winners or losers. They don't have time to survey every corner of the market. And so if they want to invest in energy or in financials or in tech or otherwise, they buy an index fund. And so we're happy to bring the world's first and largest crypto index fund as an ETF, which means that alongside Bitcoin
Starting point is 00:25:32 ETFs, alongside Ethereum ETFs, alongside Slon ETS. Investors now can just own 85% of the market with one click of a button. So we're really excited about this. We've been applying to convert this thing to an ETF for literally years. It's been trading as a GBT-like product with premiums and discounts, which isn't the best for investors and it's costly. And now officially, as of today, it's listed on the New York Stock Exchange as the, like I said, the world's first and largest crypto index ETF. And we're really excited about it. Very exciting. And one question, do you find that investors tend to want an index type product or are they, you know, kind of more just like in a Bitcoin or into Ether or Solano or like how, you know, when when these investors come into
Starting point is 00:26:18 the space, like how do they tend to think about it? What do they want? Yeah, I think it's mixed, but most investors just want to have broad-based exposure. And they also want to be able to tell their clients that the clients have exposure. The last thing if financial advisor wants to do is talk to their client at the end of next year and say, look, I was right about crypto and you were right to ask me about crypto, but I bought the wrong. asset. And so actually your portfolio is down despite Ethereum being up and Bitcoin being down or some other combination of those two. And so it takes the challenge of picking winners and losers and actively investing in the space out of the equation. And so a lot of investors do come into the space
Starting point is 00:27:00 saying, I want to own digital gold. I understand Bitcoin and I'm making that allocation. And that's great. I think a lot of investors will slowly add satellite positions through index funds to that position. But for the most part, professional. investors spend a relatively small amount of their time thinking about crypto. So for them to have an easy button to own 85% of the market through an index fund, I think they're going to do that. And that's the same for other asset classes like equities, like bonds, like alternative assets, like emerging market equities. So I don't think it'll be any different for crypto. Okay. Yeah. And I could see some of them wanting, you know, both the index fund plus like a Bitcoin
Starting point is 00:27:41 an ETF, you know, like they might have confidence in some of the assets, but then think, well, for the ones I don't know about, I would like, you know, broader exposure. So, all right. Well, I think we, we see that with equities just to cover that point in depth. They might own the NASDAQ and then add on a position in NVIDIA or in Tesla or in another tech company. So it's not all that different to what they do in equities. And I think that's the power of a product like this is we're bringing crypto onto the
Starting point is 00:28:09 same playing field as other assets. classes, and that's just part of this journey into making crypto and more institutional and more approachable investment class, which will help grow the asset over time. And then one thing that I was just wondering about how this is structured is because in the top 10, you have sort of like, you know, assets that basically track the price of eat, like something like a Lido steak teeth or whatever. Like, does that exclude those or are those included? Yeah, it's a great question. So the way that this works is that we survey the top 50 crypto assets by market cap. And then we run a bunch of screens around the index methodology
Starting point is 00:28:45 against those assets. And it screens out things like wrapped tokens or liquid staking tokens. It also screens out, I'm sorry, screens out stable coins or meme coins or things like that. And so really the 10th asset is probably the 25th largest by market cap because we're screening for certain risks and criteria. Now, that might sound like we're excluding something that you might want in the index or in the fund, but I would note that Luna at one point became the fourth largest crypto asset, but that was not allowed in this index or in this fund because we saw, and our index committee saw certain security risks with the asset. And so I think that's also the power of buying an index fund that's managed by a crypto specialist firm like Bitwise is that we have
Starting point is 00:29:30 150 people each and every day surveying the crypto market and paying attention to it and looking out for risks like those that emerge with FTT or with the Luna token. And so it gives you some peace of mind where you can sleep at night knowing that you have a team of experts who are intimately close with the space using a rules-based methodology to ensure that you're protected against certain things that crypto has been known for in the past and that you're also not inadvertently exposed to a meme coin when you just bought the 10 largest or something like that. Okay. Okay. Super interesting. All right. So in a moment we're going to talk a little bit more about different trends and where they're going in crypto, but first,
Starting point is 00:30:10 we're going to take a quick word from the sponsors who make the show possible. Today's episode is sponsored by Figure, which is transforming financial services using blockchain. They're the largest non-bank mortgage lender in the U.S., with over $19 billion unlocked on their lending platform. Now, they're offering industry low crypto-backed loans at 8.91% interest rates at 50% LTV for BTC, ETH, and SELTV. They differentiate themselves by offering decentralized MPC custody, which protects your crypto ownership in a segregated wallet. They've also recently launched liquidation protection to protect you from liquidation during large price drops. Whether you're funding a major purchase, investing, or even buying more Bitcoin, figure makes it transparent.
Starting point is 00:30:56 Visit figuremarkets.co-unchained to take advantage of their crypto-backed loans today. Back to my conversation with Ryan and David. So we briefly alluded earlier to tokenization. And obviously we all know that is going to be a big trend that will take off, especially with the SEC chair Paul Atkins behind it. And it's funny, you know, to even like be saying all this because this is what was being said 10 years ago when I started covering crypto. And I think it was kind of part of one of the first big articles I wrote. So, you know, decade and a half later, we're finally here.
Starting point is 00:31:34 I'm curious, though, so I can see how this would make tradfine markets more efficient, but I was wondering how you think it would benefit crypto, the crypto markets. And either one of you can go first. I think at the end of the day, what tokenization is a vehicle to move assets faster than anything has been possible without having all the intermediaries, middle men and middle women in the middle. And so at the end of the day, the idea is that crypto doesn't just have to be crypto. Traditional finance doesn't just have to be traditional finance. I think what we're getting to at the end of the day is that it's going to be finance.
Starting point is 00:32:20 It's going to be technology. I don't think we're going to need to necessarily separate and parse out crypto versus traditional finance and traditional finance and crypto. I think you're going to see, and you're starting to see, especially with real world assets and everything you're talking about with RWA is, is a convergence. Where, you know, as I think I spoke, actually, I think I tweeted to, to your colleague, to Hogan, that there's roughly $240 trillion between equities and bonds that can potentially be affected by, you know, real world asset by tokenization. And Laura, as you alluded to, there are benefits to it. Obviously, there's counterparty risk assessment. There's ability to have everything on chain and have transparency. There's ability to have a world where we go from T plus five, where we were years ago, to T plus one, where we are today, to T plus zero or T plus 30 seconds.
Starting point is 00:33:17 This is all, you know, potential with, you know, having the adaptation of the rails that have been developed over the last six or seven years, especially. And so I think this is really where we're going to have to start getting our minds through. If we want to reach a billion plus users over the next few years, which is really where we should be thinking about as an industry, is how do we get to a billion users? We need to stop calling things specifically just defy. We need to start calling things finance. And we need to talk about the technology that we are adapting and building to address finance
Starting point is 00:33:54 and how to make finance faster and business. better and more democratized. I think that is where we really need to start. That's how crypto and RWA as in tokenization really starts to flourish, is that we stop isolating it and really start kind of bringing it into an adaptation process. I think that's what we'll see as successful for crypto going forward. Yeah, I could not agree more that we're going to see a convergence of these two right now kind of separate entities into one. And in the future, we'll just call it finance and we'll be
Starting point is 00:34:28 referring to things like tokenization and defy and stable coins and stocks and bonds and hedge funds and all of those things combined. That's just the technological evolution of where we're headed. And what it's doing is bringing finance into the 21st century and really improving all those things that David mentioned. I mean, the fact that the chairman of the SEC, which is the most important financial regulator in the world was on Fox Business News talking about tokenization for like 15 minutes and talking about how nearly every asset in the world is going to be on chain in a few years and talking about how the prior SEC regime got it all wrong just shows the massive transition that we've gone through over the past year. I think it shows where we're headed.
Starting point is 00:35:13 And as Paul Atkins mentioned, tokenization just lowers the cost, reduces risk, increases transparency and modernizes financial markets. So I do think a decade or two decades from now, it'll just be referred to as finance. And we're on that journey of integrating both traditional markets and crypto markets into financial markets for the future. Yeah. And yeah, I guess like once there's integration, then that will just lead to more adoption of crypto, which will help crypto markets generally. So here's something that's happening currently that I really wanted to touch on. There was already been discussion of this on my channel, so we won't dwell too long. But obviously, everybody's seeing MSTR's MNAV is just a tad over one. It's at 1.18.
Starting point is 00:36:03 Currently, there's a bunch of debts that are already below a 1.0 MNAV. And I wonder, you know, what you thought would happen to those stats, the ones that are treating below a 1.0MNAV. I'm not going to go too much into specifics there about the calculations of that. And I will talk more broadly about the vehicles that obviously have arisen with the dad over the last eight or nine months. I do think what really needs to happen for them to be much more powerful and much more unique and much more of a value proposition is I really do think that they need to take more of a private. type of an approach, where if you have been able to raise a pipe, 50 or 100 or 150 million dollars, whatever it may be or more, what are you doing to actually support the ecosystem around that specific token, whether it's ETH, whether it's LANA, whether it's Bitcoin, whether it's,
Starting point is 00:37:00 you know, hyperliquid, whatever it may be, how are you actually encouraging the growth of that ecosystem? How are you looking for bolt-ons? How are you looking to actually, you know, again, look for, you know, customer acquisition? How are you getting into the hands of more users or potential users or partnerships. I think that's really where these things need to go. Now, they've raised inordinate amount of money over the last, you know, as I said, again six, seven, eight months. And I do think that they need to really recalculate and reformate kind of how they are doing
Starting point is 00:37:31 things. I don't think that it could just go and raise $150 million and buy the underlying token and call it a day. I don't think that's enough. I really do think that they need to create much more of a, as I said, private equity slash venture type of an approach where they're building, you know, accretion of value in the token and the underlying of the ecosystem, to really create more, as I said, kind of downward pressure to build that, you know,
Starting point is 00:37:58 the upward price. It can't just be, you know, a, you know, line of last resort where it could just, you know, I have $100 million and I could just buy the token ATM whenever I want. That really, I don't think is necessarily doing very much right now. Yeah, I agree that there's going to be the companies that stand out by actually creating compelling operating businesses that build ecosystem investments around their core holdings and drive the growth and adoption of the broader ecosystem, whether it's Ethereum, Salana, Bitcoin, hyperliquid, as David mentioned.
Starting point is 00:38:32 I also think we're just going to see consolidation in the data space over the next 12 to 24 months. This clearly got out over its skis. A lot of these, as you mentioned, Laura, trading. at or below MNAV. I think it won't be consolidation via M&A, though. I can imagine a world where a lot of these dats just unwind. And they would do that because why would they sell their company to a larger debt at a discount
Starting point is 00:38:59 when they could just liquidate their balance sheet holdings at the market price of Bitcoin? It's better for investors to them just to liquidate at the spot price. But I think what that means, the larger debts will ultimately create OTC deals to absorb that Bitcoin. I don't think that digital asset treasury companies will be net sellers of crypto next year. I think we're going to see more purchases by public corporations of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salana. And I think we're going to see one or two winners in each ecosystem emerge to the top and absorb the smaller ones through just buying their crypto assets, kind of an OTC deals at a slight discount on the market. Okay. So basically, it sounds like whatever fallout happens in the
Starting point is 00:39:39 that space, you don't feel will actually negatively impact the crypto markets. I think it absorbs itself ultimately. David, what do you think? Absorption is the keyword here. And again, you know, kind of hugging back to the post I talked about at the beginning of the show, you know, there are those that are selling, but then there is those that are absorbing that. Whereas when Bitcoin hit to 125, there really was.
Starting point is 00:40:09 that necessarily sell pressure, but what we're seeing right now is that there's been selling, but there's been absorption. I love that word. That is the key word right now is that, you know, these markets, as Ryan knows, there's buyers and sellers. And so there are days when there is going to be more buyers and there's going to be days when there's more sellers, but there's still going to be people who are looking to buy. As we know from any kind of traditional asset playbook, if you like something at 20 and you were buying you at 20 and now it's at 18, there's really, I There's not many reasons why, you know, that you would change your playbook. And that's right out of Buffet and a manga right there.
Starting point is 00:40:46 Okay. Okay. So, yeah, we'll have to see because that space clearly is undergoing some changes right now facing some challenges. But hopefully it won't impact the broader crypto markets too much. So the last piece of kind of the adoption story that I wanted to talk about was stable coins. you know, we can all see that obviously because of genius and just simply the fact that even before a genius, like stable coins just became gigantic, that, you know, this is just going to keep growing bigger and bigger. I think people were surprised and a little upset about the news that Stripe is going to charge 1.5% on transactions for its stable coin payments. And I wondered if you would just talk a little bit about, you know, how you thought the stable coin, you know, competition will play out and how that will affect the adoption of crypto.
Starting point is 00:41:46 I'm going to give a shout out to my colleague, Rain Steinberg, who obviously was the co-founder of ARCA and also the co-founder of Wisdom Tree, for those that don't know, which was one of the biggest ETF companies in the world. And I've learned a lot from him because at the earliest point in times, you know, the growth of ETS, all of a sudden you started talking about fee compression. And Ryan knows this too, you know, because it's classical ETF, you know, playbook. You have an asset or you have a group of assets. You have something out there that you can charge X amount for and then you have competition come in and that fee compression starts to happen. And it starts to become X minus 1, X minus 2, X minus 10. And so this is normal. What we see is that, yeah, sure, Stripe can do that.
Starting point is 00:42:34 You know, they have, you know, a fairly large global reach right now, and they can offer now this with their incorporation of bridge. I would be hard pressed to think in the next year to other operators out there, you know, full and fair disclosure, one of our companies in our venture portfolio was acquired by modern treasury recently called Beam, and they acquired them specifically for similar purposes to offer stable coin capacity on and off-rams. We see this happening in real time where there are more companies out there that have good balance sheets and have capacity who are coming after this because this is where they see the growth. I think there was a annotation.
Starting point is 00:43:13 Goldman might have said this a few months back where there is some forecasting out there, implied forecasting out there that stable coins could reach two trillion volume over the next year or two. And so this is something that I think the majority of corporations understand, especially on the payment side. And I think as you start to see what I think you'll see, and what we have seen evidently, you know, in 2025 is massive, you know, I say massive with air quotes. It is a significant amount of M&A activity. And I think you're going to continue to see that. You see obviously Stripe Acquire Bridge. You've seen Ripple acquire, you know, certain ones. I think rail was one of them.
Starting point is 00:43:53 This is something that I think you'll continue to see for the next few quarters as you'll start to see acquisitions that have not already. been done, where corporations large and smaller or mid-sized are going to continue to look to bring on stable coin capacity to really compete in a global scale. So with that, over the course of the next year or two, you're going to see more capacity, more ability, more competition. And you're going to see that fee start to compress significantly, in my opinion. Ryan? Yeah, I think it's like David said, it's a similar story we've seen with ETFs and just other technologies and products over the years. Stripe can charge 1.5% on stablecoin transactions because they're one of the largest
Starting point is 00:44:36 payment companies in the world. And they handle trillions of dollars of transactions every single year. So I'm not surprised that they are charging for it. I think another element to the story is that it's more than half the cost of what they're charging for credit card payments or other payments on their network. So we're still seeing the benefits of stable coins play out. Now, where those benefits accrue right now, about 1.5% of each transaction on Stripe accrues to Stripe. But the cost savings on the other side of that transaction accrue to the small businesses, the large businesses and those using the Stripe network. So I think we shouldn't step away from the fact that overall is improving the system, just as we've all who got into crypto said that stable coins and crypto can. And I do think eventually fees will compress and will go lower.
Starting point is 00:45:23 you see, as David mentioned, the same thing happened with ETFs. I mean, it was a race to the bottom when it came to the spot Bitcoin ETF fees. And that's why Bitcoin ETFs, for the most part, are less expensive than something like gold ETFs. And I do think that Stablecoins being less expensive than credit card payments makes sense. I think that fee will compress. I also think that just every financial institution in FinTech is either going to launch their own stable coin or partner with the stable coin issuer in the next 18 months. I think that's going to massively, accelerate the adoption of stable coins and accelerate that fee compression race because they'll be competing for business. They'll also find other ways to generate revenue. I mean, Coinbase makes all
Starting point is 00:46:05 stablecoin transactions free with USC when you use Coinbase, but they generate hundreds of millions in stable coin revenue through their partnership with Circle on the other side of, you know, interest on the reserve. So I think, you know, there's an area where it's kind of heads you win, tails you win when it comes to stable coins. The end users win. The small businesses, win and the stable coin issuers or platforms also win because it's net net a much better technology than our traditional payment systems. If I could just say something else, one of the things I've been thinking through is, as you may or may not have got, I like looking at the past 30 odd years of technological diffusion.
Starting point is 00:46:43 And it just points to me very clearly that, you know, we talk about in crypto, we talk about product market set, we talk about what is it being used for. We talk about that often. In my opinion, the stable coin revolution that we're seeing right now in the adaptation, adoption of it is very similar to what you saw in the early 90s with email. There was a point in time, you know, for those that are too young to know, email was literally just me sending a text message to Ryan or to her to Laura. It was not much. It was like, hey, how are you doing? You know, Hope all is well, blah, blah, blah.
Starting point is 00:47:17 Then there was an adaptation, M-I-M-E, which allowed. for the addition of metadata of files. And all of a sudden, now my email could be, hey, I just did this work for you. Here's my bill. Or, hey, we're looking at this deal. Take a look at the pitch deck, which we do time and time again every single day now. It became something that became commercialized. We started to be able to do business with it.
Starting point is 00:47:46 And I think that's kind of the same track that we're seeing here with Stable Coins is that stable coins are bringing crypto to the world. And then the world is going to say, okay, well, now can I send, you know, something on top of that? Can I send an attachment on top of that? And that's where I think, really, we start to see a linchpin and a catalyst is that in the next year or two, with more adaptation, more adoption of stable coins around the world, and as Ryan alluded to, with more, you know, public companies, you know, trying to acquire stable coin capacity, I think you're going to start to say, okay, okay, now.
Starting point is 00:48:21 Now that I can send, you know, this asset instantaneously to anyone, anywhere, any time, 24-7, 365, what else can I do with this stuff? I think that's really where the magic is going to happen. Yeah. So let's circle back to David's piece because we only talked about one portion of it. There was another part of it that's actually quite interesting to me. So as everybody knows, in the last few months, we saw. munch, munch. We saw this surge in Zcash and in a bunch of privacy coins. And, you know, David kind of made
Starting point is 00:49:01 this interesting point in his piece, which was he sort of, you know, talked about Bitcoin being that countercultural asset that people were interested in, you know, part of the cypherpunk movement and that now it's becoming institutionalized. And he sort of posited that Zcash kind of was taking the place of that, you know, cypherpunk ethos, which is funny because there's a dad named cypherpunk, which I have said before on the show is the least superpunk thing I can think of, which I find hilarious. But anyway, the point is just, you know, I just wondered what you thought this kind of upswing that we're seeing in the interest in privacy, because it's not only Seacash, but as we know, you know, the Ethereum Foundation suddenly has made privacy a priority
Starting point is 00:49:47 and, of course, as everybody has said for forever, if you're going to get institutions onboarded into the space, they need privacy. And most people generally would prefer to have privacy around their financial transactions. So I was wondering, you know, do you think that there's a chance that Bitcoin is either too slow to adopt privacy or doesn't adopt it at all? That could cause it to kind of like lose its mantle as the top crypto asset. And if so, which other asset do you feel is like poised for that? Like David, it sort of seems like you think it's C-Cash. But now with the Ethereum Foundation kind of prioritizing all this as well, and obviously, Ether being an asset that just can do a lot more than kind of a simple payment asset,
Starting point is 00:50:31 like a Bitcoin or a Z-cash. I sort of wondered, you know, what you thought this new trend pretended for like the world order in crypto as we know it now. Right. I think this is coming from a few different places, you know, GDPR and you're starting to see much more of an advocacy for privacy online and for you're starting to see, especially in Europe, you're starting to see censorship of, you know, text messages, of social media of all sorts of different things. And I think there's a kind of a revolution for going against that. So I think there is ideological issues at bay. but there's also the other kind of piece of this that, you know, Chamath and others have brought up is the,
Starting point is 00:51:16 the quantum, you know, issue, the kind of the Q day, if you will. And so there's conjecture out there that, you know, Google's Willow project, the Willow chip, and some of the work done by IONQ when we're getting and others out there on the quantum side is really moving quite fast. And there is technicality. to this where in 1994, I believe it was kind of prognosticated with E-C-D-S-A and Shaw, that there was going to be a point in time where quantum was going to be able to kind of break
Starting point is 00:51:55 and be able to break those keys. And so that's also been all of a sudden a kind of a new issue that people have started to talk about a lot. And so it's interesting, you know, I would not say that, you know, dating back, you know, if you look at Zcash specifically, you know, Zcash was, was founded or kind of brought to market about nine years ago. So this is not new. You know, zero knowledge proofs and bringing signatures and narrower uses and other different kind of capacities for security and privacy are not new. And so, So it's really quite interesting to see all of a sudden this new kind of movement towards, you know, looking into privacy, looking at the concerns about quantum. Again, I've done some research on this.
Starting point is 00:52:50 I am not a quantum, you know, kind of, you know, specialist or researcher per se. I've done enough to where I can be at least have a conversation and not sound completely stupid. But it does seem that, you know, the kind of the capacities, if you forecast, if you look at the different forecasts and the technical capacities, that quantum could, you know, with their, with qubit design and development, you know, there needs to be fidelity. There needs to be the ability for these things to be stable. There needs to be extreme cold temperatures with cryogenics. You know, it looks like, you know, somewhere in the range of 2030, the 2035, you know, there is some sort of a belief that things could happen. But then I've also seen Adam back talk about the ability to adapt to, you know, kind of adapt to this.
Starting point is 00:53:35 and there's adaptations where Bitcoin could start to really, you know, create some quantum resistance with that. So I really can't say, I don't think my, I think I put that into the paper because I wanted to throw it out there as theoretic and something that I've been observing. I can't say that, I think that Zcash is the answer or dare I even say that Bitcoin is going to fall to Zcash. You know, there are those on crypto Twitter who are stomping their feet every hour on the hour as good old KOLs as they are, We're doing that. I am not doing that. But there is some interesting components to that from, as I said, from an ideological perspective and from a physical and theoretical side of things, a science perspective, where these things
Starting point is 00:54:18 are kind of marrying each other and kind of creating this new float of interest in privacy. But yeah, there's a lot to be on news. There's a lot to be told right now. I think, you know, you will continue to see this conversation play out into 2026. I know that there's interest amongst people that, you know, privacy does need to be addressed, that these things do need to come to a head. But I really think from my perspective, the jury is still out. Brian?
Starting point is 00:54:50 Yeah, I mean, there's a lot to unpack there. I think what I take away from this is that there's so much innovation and groundbreaking that's happening with crypto technology more broadly, whether it is privacy or whether it's stable coins. or tokenization, some of the things that we've spoken about today, that I typically just believe all of this will matter more in the future than it does today. And what I love about the fact that privacy is becoming front and center in the discussion, as is stable coins and tokenization. Other use cases like prediction markets as well are getting more and more popular.
Starting point is 00:55:25 What I love is that crypto is no longer this one-hit wonder with Bitcoin, but there's numerous different ways in which crypto technology is disrupting financial markets, traditional markets, and other use cases and applications. I think privacy is extremely important. And you're seeing that reflected in the price of some of these privacy assets growing. But I also think other use cases are increasingly important. And that's, you know, to circle back on kind of making sure that you have exposure to the whole space as an investor is really, really important.
Starting point is 00:55:55 And we don't know who the top crypto asset is going to be or what the biggest crypto company is going to be a decade or two decades from now. Just like in 1995, you had no. idea who the Mac 7 were going to be. Most of them weren't even around yet. And so I think I hear all of this. I see all the innovation being discussed in crypto circles. I see some of the brightest minds in the world focused on these challenges and these use cases. And I get excited about where we're headed. I get excited that we're still so early. And that is hard to imagine all the areas of the economy in the world that crypto technology will ultimately upend, transform, and innovate on.
Starting point is 00:56:35 All right. So we're coming up on time. So I definitely want to take a sneak peek into 2026. And Ryan, you kind of alluded to this earlier. You said that you thought the four year cycle would be proven dead in 20206. So explain like how you think that this coming year will play out. Like, you know, what can we expect to see in the crypto markets? When I think about 2026, the way that I see it being a positive year for Bitcoin and for crypto assets. I think the liquidity environment is supportive for risk assets and crypto assets. I think we're more likely to see interest rate cuts than we are to see interest rate hikes. I think monetary supply globally is growing and that will drive risk assets higher. I also think there's still concern to that end around debasement of currencies and the debasement
Starting point is 00:57:24 trade, which became really popular on Wall Street last year. And I think we'll become increasingly popular in the year to come, see central banks trying to diversify their reserves. We saw what happened with the price of gold this year. I think we'll see a similar move with Bitcoin next year. And then we have the rise of stable coins and tokenization. All of these things are kind of underpinned by the regulatory advances we've seen with the Genius Act with a pro-cropto SEC. And so it's really hard for me to step back and look at 2026 and imagine a down year. Now, of course, there could be some big macro black swan event geopolitical tensions. You never really know with Trump,
Starting point is 00:58:01 what he's going to do or say. And I think the midterms create some sort of uncertainty. But broadly speaking, I believe 2026 will be an up year. I believe that tokenization and stable coins are going to continue to be front and center. You're going to continue to have Larry Fink pounding the table every chance he gets about tokenization. You're going to continue to see the SEC be supportive of crypto. And if crypto wins the midterm elections and if we get the passage of the Clarity Act, I think that crypto is going to do remarkably well in 2026.
Starting point is 00:58:31 beyond. David. I would agree with the regulatory side first. The shutdown definitely affected the timeline for that. We were probably on target to potentially have that passed, you know, this year, right around now. Now we're looking towards Q1, maybe Q2. Again, the call with Senator Gillibrand was enlightening to the fact that she said that this
Starting point is 00:58:58 is really one of the areas where it is bipartisan. where they do work together on this, which is nice to hear, because you don't necessarily get that color often. You usually think that they're killing each other, you know, in restaurants all along D.C. But no,
Starting point is 00:59:15 they actually do seem to be trying to co-op and work together on this, which is good, which is a big change. So I definitely think from a regulatory side, getting clarity is definitely going to be an uplift. I think it's going to, it's going to take some time for it actually to be implemented. Let's also do.
Starting point is 00:59:31 just be very fair about that. If it does get past, it's not instantaneous where all of a sudden, you know, everything's done. There needs to be rulemaking. There needs to be actually programming of that. And so I do think that that is a big one to be looking for. I clearly agree with tokenization. You know, as I said, you know, as Ryan said, too, the biggest asset manager in the world is
Starting point is 00:59:55 basically begging for tokenizing assets. I think that's going to be a very significant. portion there. With that, I would also be very, you know, curious to see how the infrastructure for tokenization works out. You need to have infrastructure behind tokenization to actually have that work well. So that's an area that I'm taking a look at for 2026 is the infrastructure behind tokenization. And lastly, I'd have to say, you know, AI has been on the hot button as a bubble, et cetera, et cetera, I still see that there is a significant confluence between AI and crypto.
Starting point is 01:00:35 And I do see a world where, and I think Google is already expanding with this and a few others, where AI agents are going to be embedded and powered with crypto wallets and especially stable coins. And they're going to be able to do significant processes and resources. And they're going to be able to pay for those resources with stable coins immediately, friction without friction. I do see a world that that plays out, and I think that's going to take more of a face in 26.
Starting point is 01:01:02 So those are some of the areas that I'm definitely taking a look at for the next year. And so you also think that the crypto markets will end higher at the end of the year, 2026, like Ryan does? I've been around too long to actually prognosticate and to forecast those types of things. I, as I said before, and I will say again, these assets are supply and demand driven. We need to build the demand. The supply is there. Now for 2026, a calling for all of us in crypto in the entire industry is we need to build the demand side.
Starting point is 01:01:39 And I think we all need to look ourselves in the face every single day and say, what are we doing to build the demand side? If we were able to solve that side of the equation, then as we know from classical economics, prices agree. And so I just need to end with this. I really want to know. So, Ryan, if you were to put a number on it, where would you? Because, you know, you talked about how, you know, all these RIAs, they take a while. It's been like eight meetings since, you know, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs about Vanguard, of Bank of America, et cetera, et cetera. So I'm just so curious, like, what price would you put on Bitcoin for the end of 2026? Yeah, I'll take a stab at this. Like, I think we're going to set new all-time highs in 2026 for Bitcoin. I think we probably will set new highs for Ethereum in Solana as well if the Clarity Act passes. For Bitcoin, my target number for 2026 is somewhere between 125 and 150. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if we get the macro tail ones that I spoke about and we get passage of the Clarity Act.
Starting point is 01:02:46 And, you know, we continue to see institutional adoption, which we certainly believe that we will. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin trading north of 150 this time next year. All right. Well, we will leave on that note. That sounds really interesting. Thank you both so much for sharing your insights. I really enjoy chatting with you. Unchained is produced by Laura Shin with help from Juan Oranovich, Margaret Curia and Pam Majumdar.
Starting point is 01:03:11 Thanks for listening.

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