Up First from NPR - Election Takeaways, Trump Legal Cases, Trump And The Economy

Episode Date: November 7, 2024

Donald Trump won after building a broad coalition. Trump's election victory gets rid of at least two of his criminal prosecutions. And stocks climb on hopes that Trump's re-election will boost economic growth.Want more comprehensive analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today's episode of Up First was edited by Eric Krishnadev Calamur, Anna Yukhananov, Rafael Nam, Olivia Hampton and Jan Johnson. It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas and Lindsay Totty. We get engineering support from Carleigh Strange. And our technical director is Zac Coleman.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

A look at the electorate that chose Donald Trump reveals some intriguing facts. Exit polls find the share of white voters grew while the share of non-white voters went down. How does that shift our sense of who's voting and who's not? I'm Michelle Martin with Steve N. Skeep and this is Up First from NPR News. Trump will be the first convicted felon to serve as president. During the campaign, he spoke of firing one of the people pursuing a pending case, the special counsel.

It's so easy. I would fire him within two seconds. Trump won't have to because Jack Smith cannot prosecute a sitting president. How does Smith finish up? Also, we have an assessment of the president-elect's promise to raise tariffs, taxes on imports. The near-term impact would be slower economic growth, but it would also bring in revenue. So who are the winners and losers?

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That's M-A-D-E-I-N cookware.com. Okay, so does this sound like you? You love NPR's podcasts, you wish you could get more of all your favorite shows, and you want to support NPR's mission to create a more informed public. If all that sounds appealing, then it is time to sign up for the NPR Plus

bundle. Learn more at plus.npr.org. Enjoying the podcast so far? Get more from shows like this one with NPR Plus. For a simple recurring donation, you'll get perks from over 20 NPR podcasts, including sponsor-free listening, bonus episodes, early access, shop discounts, and more. Join us in making the world a more curious and well-informed place at plus.npr.org. Vice President Harris committed to a peaceful transfer of power yesterday in ways that President-elect Trump did not four years ago. While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign. But we want to take another look at the voters who fueled that campaign as well as her victorious

opponents. NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here with some fascinating findings. Domenico, good morning. Hey, good morning. So what are in the results that you see? Well, I mean, I've been saying for some time that we're in the middle of a political realignment in the country when that's happening.

Things look really volatile. We won't know what's on the other side of this until the dust settles. And that really hasn't happened yet in the age of Trump. But we did find out some things. First, the issue landscape, of course, just favored Republicans from the start of this election because there was an overwhelmingly negative view of the economy. But I have to say, one of the most eye-opening things that I saw in these exit polls is that white voters actually went up as a share of the electorate. That hasn't happened since

1992. I mean, white voters had been on a steady decline as a share of the electorate because there are a shrinking share of the eligible voter population, and going up clearly helped Trump. Yeah, I'm just thinking this through. So the country is becoming more diverse, more non-white people, fewer white people. The electorate went the opposite way. So I guess either some non-white voters

felt conflicting pressures and sat it out, or new groups of white voters showed up, is that it? Yeah, I mean, it's hard to know exactly until we see turnout rates, which are gonna come out in, you know, coming months. But it wasn't just white voters that helped fuel Trump's win. I mean, Trump actually expanded his coalition, and it's why this time, for the first time,

he's on track to win the popular vote. How so? How would you say that? You saw that women turned out. They're actually up a point as a share of the electorate from four years ago But it appears Harris didn't get as many of them to vote for her as her team expected I mean just 53 percent of women voted for Harris. That's the worst for a Democrat in 20 years now She did very well with white college educated women better than Biden actually, but they weren't enough

I mean look at white women without degrees They made up an even bigger share of the electorate, one in five voters, and they broke overwhelmingly for Trump. Trump also, and this is huge, made big inroads with Latinos. Get this, he got 46% of Latinos, which is the best any Republican has ever done with them. And Trump did it by winning over Latino men and young men. Okay, so you just mentioned Latino men, young men.

How did he do overall with men? Well, with Latino men, he won by 12 points. He won young men 18 to 29 by just a couple of points. But many of them had been saying that they're upset, that in their view, society says, you know, other groups are more important than they are. And they had a TikTok feed and a podcast to tell them exactly that.

And it's pretty remarkable because Trump won men in every age group. Okay, so you've given us some broad trends here. Do you feel you understand why people voted as they did? in a podcast to tell them exactly that. And it's pretty remarkable because Trump won men in every age group. Okay. So you've given us some broad trends here. Do you feel you understand why people voted as they did? Well, I mean, one big piece of this obviously is cultural grievance, um, as I was noting there,

but in our final polling, we got some other clues, you know, women seem to think Harris was sincere in these moderate proposals that she'd been putting forward in this campaign that were different from her presidential campaign five years ago, but men, they thought that she was doing it just to try and get votes. Clear that men and women see women as leaders very differently, and I think there's going to be a lot to dissect in that.

The other piece of this though, major thing obviously was the economy. We've been hearing it the entirety of the campaign, working class Latinos just said they felt they were better off under Trump four years ago. Domenico, thanks very much for the insights. Really appreciate it. You got it. That's NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Vice President Harris asked voters to turn the page on Donald Trump.

Instead, he will turn the page on his legal problems. Yes, although he's already been convicted in state court, he started the year facing federal indictments that threatened to send him to prison. But having delayed the cases, then won re-election, he will end the year free and clear. In large part because the Justice Department is evaluating how to wind down to federal cases

brought by special counsel Jack Smith. NPR's Carrie Johnson has been following Trump's legal troubles. Carrie, good morning. Good morning, Steve. So this is interesting. Trump on the campaign trail talked of firing Jack Smith. He doesn't even have to do that? No, that's because there's a longstanding view inside the Justice Department. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have followed this view.

It says a sitting president cannot be indicted or face criminal trial. The reasoning there is it would be too much of a burden that it would be unconstitutional and would undermine the work of the executive branch. Trump's Attorney General Bill Barr and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise are calling on this Justice Department to drop the D.C. case against Trump. The writing is on the wall, Bill Barr says, and people have considered these allegations against Trump about election interference, but the voters rejected them resoundingly. Okay, so how quickly is the Biden Justice Department moving here? Well, we can report Jack Smith is working with others inside the DOJ to wind down

both of these federal cases likely before the inauguration. First, there's that January 6 case in D.C., the election interference case, And then there's a separate case against Trump in Florida over his alleged hoarding of documents at his resort and his refusal to return them to the FBI. That case involves not just Donald Trump, but two other defendants, his valet and the property manager at Mar-a-Lago. Judge Eileen Cannon remember throughout that case that prosecutors have been appealing her decision. And to drop the case against Trump could mean it goes away as to all three of those defendants. Well, this gets to another question, Carrie, that's on my mind because I heard different

opinions from Trump supporters. Trump talked of prosecuting his critics, including Jack Smith specifically, or even throwing him out of the country. I heard from Trump supporters who are like, yes, do that, and others who said, oh, he would never abuse his power in that way. So what seems likely actually to happen once he gets the power? Well, Trump's rhetoric on this has been really harsh. You're right. And we know the Justice Department has already spent millions of dollars on security for the special counsel Jack Smith and his prosecutors in the face of some of these rhetorical attacks and threats. The regulations at the Justice Department say special counsels write a report about

their findings when their work is done. It's not clear yet how much progress Jack Smith has made on that report and whether the current administration might release some of it before Inauguration Day. Remember in the Trump era, then Attorney General Barr ultimately released the report by the special counsel then Robert Mueller over Russian interference in the 2016 election, but only after Barr characterized it in a way that Mueller's prosecutors described as acting like a defense lawyer for Donald Trump. So we might see some kind of final report from Jack Smith.

I want to ask about one other thing. We should note that Trump was less successful in delaying a state case until his election. And so he was convicted by a New York jury, which is why we refer to him as a convicted felon. Thirty-four charges relating to business fraud. What happens in that case? It's really uncertain. The Supreme Court gave Trump sweeping immunity from prosecution for

his official acts in the White House, but the bulk of this case in New York involved Trump's behavior before he won the first time in 2016. Prosecutors there during the trial in New York introduced some evidence from people who worked for Trump in the White House, and now this judge has to decide whether that has fatally impaired the whole case and whether to go ahead and sentence Donald Trump on those charges next month, just weeks, Steve, before he's inaugurated the 47th president of the United States. NPR's Carrie Johnson, I'm really glad you're here to talk us through this. Thanks so much.

Thank you. The president-elect promised lower income taxes and also higher tariffs, which are taxes on imports. He also promised mass deportations, including many people who work in the United States. Markets are already reacting to these economic proposals. The stock market surged yesterday on news of his win. And Pierre Scott Horsley joins us now. Scott, good morning. Good morning, Steve. Okay.

So how do Trump's economic policies line up with his promise the other day of a golden age in the United States? Well, it might have to be borrowed gold. Trump has promised to extend portions, the 2017 tax cut, which were set to expire next year. He's also called for additional cuts to corporate taxes. If Congress goes along, that could boost economic growth, but it's also likely to cut into government revenues and widen

the federal deficit. The other centerpiece of Trump's economic platform, as you mentioned, is the blanket tariff on imports. Economist Michael Polisi of Wells Fargo says that could be a drag on economic growth. Tariffs are first and foremost a revenue raiser. It's a tax. It's a tax on imported goods that are brought into the United States. So the tax would make the goods cost more, right, higher prices. I think that the near-term impact would be slower economic growth, but it would also bring in revenue. Trump has sometimes boasted that his tariffs would raise so much revenue they would pay for other parts of his agenda. Fiscal hawks, though,

are skeptical. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump's overall economic plans would add nearly $8 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade. So, while the stock market rallied yesterday on prospects of a business-friendly White House, the bond market sagged under the expected weight of all that extra debt. I'm just thinking Trump has made contradictory statements saying he's gonna raise tariffs so much that you won't even have to pay income taxes but then also that companies will change their behavior in a way that they're won't have to pay any tariffs. It becomes very confusing. So the bottom line is you

borrow to make up the difference. What would the debt do to the government's borrowing costs? Well it would grow. You know the federal government's already spending more on interest payments than it does on defense or Medicare or anything other than social security. If the government has to borrow a lot more money, that could raise the cost of borrowing for you and me. You know, mortgage rates typically follow the yield on 10-year treasuries, which jumped sharply yesterday. So that could make buying a house even more expensive. What does the Federal Reserve do as it meets today on interest rates? The Fed sets short-term interest rates, which affect things like car loans or the cost of carrying a balance on your credit card.

The central bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point today. But Puglisi says the Fed may be more cautious going forward about cutting interest rates if these various Trump policies go into effect. Based on this idea that if you're going to get some higher inflation from the tariffs, from tax cuts, we'll see on the growth side it's going to depend on what actually gets implemented. Plus the fact that the economic data have also just been trending a little

bit better lately. Inflation, which was such a big driver of people's frustration with the economy, has been coming down. But economists say some of Trump's policies could actually raise prices. For example, he wants to deport millions of immigrants who are in the country illegally. If you're worried about the cost of groceries, deporting people who pick and process food is probably not the best answer. Is Trump going to respect the Fed's independence?

We'll see. You know, the Fed is supposed to be insulated from political pressure, but Trump has never been shy about criticizing the central bank and its chairman, whom he appointed if he doesn't like the way they're managing interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been pretty solid about not bowing to political pressure, but his term runs out in about a year and a half and Trump will have an opportunity to nominate a more malleable successor. NPR's Scott Horsley, thanks so much.

You're welcome. Trump will have an opportunity to nominate a more malleable successor. NPR's Scott Horsley, thanks so much. You're welcome. And that's a first for this Thursday, November 7th. I'm Steve Inskeep. And I'm Michelle Martin. For your next Listen, stay tuned to our feed for bonus episodes as we continue to analyze the results. You can also consider Consider This from NPR. President-elect Donald Trump has brought a red wave to America. Who are the voters sending him back to the White House and why? Today's Up First was edited by Krishnadev Kalamur, Anna Yukhanov, Rafael Nam, Olivia Hampton and Jan Johnson. It was produced

by Ziyad Batch, Nia Dumas and Lindsay Tadi. We get engineering support from the ever supportive Carly Strange, and our technical direction comes from Zach Coleman. And we'll just note one of our co-hosts has a birthday today. If you know him, congratulate him. A. Martinez. Join us tomorrow. Donald Trump has won the 2024 election.

How did it happen and what are his plans for a second term? Find out by listening to the MPPR Politics Podcast. We'll keep you informed every weekday with the latest news from the presidential transition. Listen to the NPR Politics Podcast. If you need a moment to catch your breath and calm your nerves, listen to the latest all songs considered from NPR Music. We've got an all new mix of songs to slow the blood and recalibrate your day, Plus reflections on gratitude, joy, and the power of kindness. Listen to new episodes of all songs considered every Tuesday, wherever you get podcasts.