Up First from NPR - Final Stretch Of Presidential Campaign, Venezuela Turmoil, Disney & DirecTV

Episode Date: September 3, 2024

The 2024 presidential election campaign is entering its final stretch as the candidates mobilize and prepare for next week's debate. Venezuelan courts issued an arrest warrant for opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez after he claimed victory in July's presidential election, he's accused of conspiring against President Nicolas Maduro's government. And Disney, which owns ESPN, ABC, and Disney-Plus, pulled it's programming from DirecTV over a public contract dispute.Want more comprehensive analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today's episode of Up First was edited by Dana Farrington, Luis Clemons, Jan Johnson, and Mohamad ElBardicy.It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas and Lindsay Totty.We get engineering support from Arthur Laurent. And our technical director is Stacy Abbott.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

The 2024 presidential election campaign is in its final stretch. The candidates are mobilizing as they prepare for next week's big test. In a race this tight, will a debate make a difference? I'm Leila Fadil, that's Michelle Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News. Venezuela's opposition candidate is on the run after claiming victory in July's presidential election. Much of the world agrees he won, but Nicolas Maduro is holding on to power and accusing the candidate of conspiring against the government. Will Venezuela's political and diplomatic crisis raise tension with the U.S. even further?

And millions of DirecTV customers will love scrambling for ways to watch their favorite shows and sports when Disney pulled its programming from the distributor over a contract dispute. Can they resolve this before the U.S. Open ends and Monday Night Football starts? Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day. Do you feel like there's more on your to-do list than you can accomplish? Or maybe the world's problems feel extra heavy these days. We can't eliminate stress, but we can manage it. It's almost like I have a new operating system now.

Like I tend to live more in this light. Stress Less, a quest to reclaim your calm. A new series from NPR's Life Kit. You care about what's happening in the world. Let State of the World from NPR's Life Kit. journey while you're doing the dishes or driving your car. State of the World podcast from NPR, vital international stories every day. Support for NPR and the following message come from the Walton Family Foundation, working to create access to opportunity for people and communities by tackling tough social and environmental problems. More information is at waltonfamilyfoundation.org. Labor Day marks the beginning of the final push in the presidential campaign.

Some people will start voting in just a few weeks. Campaigns will be trying to mobilize their voters. And there are the debates. Now, many people have already made up their minds about who they're going to vote for. But with a race this close, it can be a nerve-wracking time. So how should voters be thinking about these next couple of months and what should voters be watching out for? Let's ask NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, good morning. Hey, good morning, Michelle.

Okay, so with Labor Day behind us, that's the traditional start of the presidential campaign, although of course we know it's been going on actually for like two years now. The election looks close. So if somebody were to say to you, hey, I'm looking at these polls every day. Is that going to tell me what's going to happen? What would you say? I'd say stop it. Polls exist. They're largely pretty good. We even conduct our own to get a better sense of how people are feeling about the candidates and society. But all you really need to know about the horse race right now are two things. First, Harris is performing better than Biden was in the seven key swing states everyone's watching. And second, the race is very close within the margin of error, and that's not likely going to change very soon.

That's it. So now this campaign is really about mobilization and a couple of big tests coming up for the candidates. Okay, about those big tests coming up. One of those is the debate one week from today. How important is that? And what are you watching for? Well, I think the debate is going to be really very important, especially for Kamala Harris. She's had a great first month. Now she's starting to face ramped up attacks from Trump because she's narrowly ahead in some key places. It's likely to get pretty ugly because

Trump has to try and pull her down. Pay attention to some of the attacks Trump is trying right now, because we're likely going to hear a lot about them at the debate next week. Things like Harris's shifts on some positions and trying to tie her to the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal. So this debate will be a test for Harris for sure, but it's also, I have to say, carries some risk for Trump too. I mean, think about the last debate against President Biden. Trump's flaws were really overshadowed because of Biden's struggles. But Trump repeatedly lied, spread baseless conspiracy theories, and made a number of unserious or incoherent policy proposals. So if Harris has a solid debate, the focus really should then be on Trump in a way that he doesn't want. We're going to likely hear about a number of the issues voters care about in that debate. Which ones do you think are motivating voters

and could possibly make the biggest difference this fall? Yeah, I mean, it's the issues that we've been hearing about that the candidates have been focused on the economy and inflation, immigration, abortion rights. In many respects, Republicans have advantages on the fundamentals in this election. Unemployment's low, growth has been strong, inflation has come down, but people continue to view the economy negatively, even if not as much as a year ago. And that's because prices are still higher than they were pre-pandemic. But negative feelings about Trump are arguably as strong or stronger than those feelings about the economy. And it's why Harris has been able to make a strong case that she's

the one who represents change in this election. Before we let you go, in an analysis published this morning on NPR.org, you write that another advantage that Democrats feel they have is related to turnout. Say more. Well, Democrats have a lot more offices, paid staff, and volunteers on the ground in swing states than the Trump campaign. Abortion rights ballot measures will be voted on in 10 states, including Arizona and Nevada, both swing states. And the Harris campaign believes those will boost turnout with key voter groups. Republicans, on the other hand, Trump has a deep well of support and tens of millions will certainly go to the polls to vote for him. But his turnout operation is a question mark because the Republican National Committee has turned over a lot of it to a group with very

little track record of success. And Trump keeps talking down things like mail-in voting, which limits his campaign. That is NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, thank you. You're welcome. The U.S. seized the government plane of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, saying the purchase of it violated U.S. sanctions. It is just the latest sign of the tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. Yeah, Maduro insists he won the election in Venezuela in July, but international observers and much of the world, including the U.S., reject his claim.

They back the opposition candidate, Armando Gonzalez, who says he actually got the most votes. So, Maduro is cracking down on dissent, and a Venezuelan judge issued an arrest warrant for Gonzalez, accusing him of sabotaging the election and conspiring against the government. Freelance reporter Manuel Rueda has been following this story. He was in Venezuela for the recent presidential election, and he is with us now from Bogota, Colombia. Manuel, good morning. Hi, good morning.

So it's not every day that a country basically repossesses another country's presidential jet. What did the Venezuelan government say about this? So basically the Venezuelan government is calling this an act of piracy. They issued a statement yesterday where they said they're going to take legal measures and try to get compensation for the plane, although it's not clear where they could head for this kind of compensation, where they could seek resource. Well, especially since, as we said, the U.S. says that this is a violation of sanctions. The purchase of it was undercover, too. So to begin with, well, I'm just trying to, could you just bring us up to date here?

Like, how did we get to this point? Yeah, absolutely. So after the election took place on July 28th, the Venezuelan Electoral Council, which runs the elections and is controlled by the ruling Socialist Party, declared Maduro the winner. But opposition activists in Venezuela collected thousands of tally sheets printed out by voting machines. They scanned them, they posted them online, and those records show pretty convincingly that González won the election by a large margin. Possibly two-thirds of the vote went to Gonzalez.

So that's basically what's bothering the Venezuelan government and making it lash out against Gonzalez and other opposition leaders. And I think with this plane being confiscated, the Biden administration is trying to sort of show its teeth and signal to the Maduro government that they're serious about enforcing sanctions against the Venezuelan government, which could be sanctions over more serious issues eventually, such as oil projects in Venezuela, Venezuelan oil exports. I see. Okay, so now I understand that there's a warrant for Edmundo Gonzalez's arrest. Do we have any sense of, the opposition candidate, as we said, do we know where he is or what his next plan is?

Gonzalez hasn't been seen in public for more than a month, and that's probably because he was protecting himself from this type of situation, from getting arrested. You know, he might escape Venezuela, as has been the case with some other opposition leaders in the past, and try to continue to make his claims from abroad. However, the most popular opposition leader in Venezuela is Maria Corina Machado, the politician who basically ran Gonzalez's campaign after she was banned herself from participating in the election. And she's still in Venezuela and is promising to stage more protests and keep up the pressure against Maduro.

As we've been talking about all this, do we have any sense of how the general public is reacting to all this? Well, you know, more than 1,600 people have been arrested in Venezuela in protests following the election. So people are very worried about what's happening. Media outlets have been censored. Even the social media platform X has been banned. So it's a difficult moment in Venezuela. And many people are also thinking about leaving the country because of this. All right.

That is freelance reporter Manuel Rueda. Manuel, thank you so much. Absolutely. Millions of sports fans watching ESPN over the weekend suddenly saw their screens black out. Yeah, DirecTV subscribers saw cable channels owned by Disney go off the air in the middle of the fourth round matches of the U.S. Open. And it's all because of a contract dispute between DirecTV and Disney, which owns ESPN, ABC, and Disney+. Here to tell us more about all this is Alex Weprin. He writes about media and sports for The Hollywood Reporter. Good morning, Alex. Good morning. Okay, your screen going black in the middle of the match. Okay. Not a way to win friends. But what is the snag here?

What have Disney and DirecTV been negotiating about? So every few years, media companies like Disney and TV providers like DirecTV, they'll kind of renegotiate their contracts just to keep their channels on the air. This time, however, thanks to cord cutting, it's a little more significant for both parties. Disney wants to try and get as much cash as possible, keep their channels as widely available as possible. DirecTV is trying to change how they sell TV. They want to start selling TV in genres like sports and news and kids. And so that's kind of caused this dust-up between the companies,

and Disney's channels are now dark. Who is most affected by this outage? I mean, I can imagine where some people who are saying, well, okay, just switch to another streaming service. Is that possible? Well, I mean, some DirecTV subscribers will be able to. They have about 11 million between their streaming service and their satellite TV service. However, there are many DirecTV subscribers, in fact, the DirecTV over-indexes in this area,

that live in rural America that don't have access to high-speed internet because the cable companies never built out infrastructure there. So while some subscribers would be able to switch, although anyone who's tried to do so can tell you it's not exactly easy or simple, there are actually millions of DirecTV subscribers for whom it's really difficult and they may not have any other good options. Do we have any sense of how these negotiations are going? I mean, it does seem kind of like a power move to pull the programming off the air, like in the middle of programming. But do we have any sense? And I know that's a difficult question, because obviously, by definition, negotiations take place behind closed doors and so forth. But do we have any sense of it? Like, how soon these channels could be restored? Anything like that? You know, typically if the companies are close at all, they will try to avoid a blackout.

The fact there is a blackout suggests that they are pretty far apart on key issues. I will say that the start of football season is in one week. And I think that will be kind of the impetus to get these two sides in a room to kind of start negotiating and cut a deal because the NFL is the king of TV. And I think they both kind of want ESPN back in DirecTV homes before the NFL season. It was just last year that Disney's channels went dark during a dispute with the cable carrier Charter Spectrum. So what does this tell us about the power of a company like Disney? You know, I think it wasn't that long ago that I think Disney would say they were operating from a position of strength. And DirecTV would have said the same thing.

I actually think they're both operating from a place of weakness right now. They're both really impacted by cord cutting. The dynamics of TV are changing dramatically. And I think the fact that we're seeing more of these blackouts, like Charter last year and DirecTV this year, suggests that these companies are really finding the current moment existential. They're trying to figure out how to survive in this new TV environment. That's Alex Weprin of The Hollywood Reporter. Alex, thanks so much for sharing this reporting and these insights with us. Thank you. And that's Up First for Tuesday, September 3rd. I'm Michelle Martin.

And I'm Layla Faldin. Your next listen is Consider This from NPR. Children are being vaccinated at lower and lower rates. What does that mean for deadly infectious diseases like measles? Listen to Consider This from NPR. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Dana Farrington, Louise Clemens, Jan Johnson, and Mohamed Elbardisi. It was produced by Ziad Butch, Nia Dumas, and Lindsay Dottie. We get engineering support from Arthur Laurent, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow. This message comes from Wondery. Find out how the NYPD transformed into one of the world's most powerful police forces. From Wondery and Crooked Media with Push Black, this is Empire City. Follow Empire City on the WPR Politics Podcast to explain the big news coming out of Washington, the campaign trail and beyond. We don't just want to tell you what happened. We

tell you why it matters. Join the NPR Politics Podcast every single afternoon to understand the world through political eyes.