Up First from NPR - Hormuz Deadlock, Presidential Laugh Lines, Prediction Markets

Episode Date: April 25, 2026

A deadlock between the U.S. and Iran continues over the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have caught the attention of regulators as people profit from privileged information. And the media try to release some pressure through humor at the White House Correspondents Association dinner.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

The U.S. tries again today to unwind the war in Iran with another delegation to Pakistan. It's unclear if Iran and the U.S. will even meet this time. The deadlock in the Middle East is still choking off supply chains worldwide. I'm Ayesha Rosco. And I'm Scott Simon, and this is up first from NPR News. The U.S. and Iran will both have representatives in Pakistan. What could bring them to the table? The prediction markets like Kau Shi and Polly Market have been nearly impossible to regulate. But a special forces soldier who placed a suspicious bet on a military operation may have finally crossed a line. And is there anything to laugh about in the media's relationship to President Trump?

Tonight is the White House Correspondents Association dinner. So please stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your weekend. A U.S. delegation is traveling to pass. Pakistan today for a new round of talks about possible peace with Iran. That's as Iran's foreign minister is also in Pakistan, although Iran has denied that direct talks with the U.S. will take place. All of this occurs as a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon was extended, something Iran demanded in order for those talks to take place. We're joined now by NPR's Kat Lonsdorf in

Beirut. Kat, thanks so much. Hey, good morning. can you tell us about the U.S. Iran peace talks? Well, both the U.S. and Iran have representatives in Pakistan, which is a good start and a more promising sign than we've had recently. On the U.S. side, special envoy Steve Wittkoff is going, joined by President Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Arachji is also in Islamabad, but Iranian officials have made it clear they plan to meet only with Pakistani officials, not with the U.S. All of these meetings are happening after Trump unilaterally extended the temporary ceasefire with Iran earlier this week, hours before it was set to expire, without indicating a new expiration date.

Iran has dismissed that extension as, quote, meaningless, saying that the continued U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports is a violation of the deal. And that stands still between the U.S. and Iran and around the Strait of Hormuz has been at the center of the back and forth over talks, hasn't it? Right, and neither side seems to be budging. Defense Secretary Pete Higgseth said yesterday that the U.S. will maintain the blockade around the strait for, quote, as long as it takes. The U.S. says it's intercepting any ships coming to or from Iranian ports, more than 30 so far. You know, that's as Iran has maintained its military control of the strait itself, keeping most commercial ships from passing through. So basically, most ships are stuck. And we're waiting to see if these indirect talks in Pakistan can possibly help unlock that situation. We note you're in Lebanon. President Trump recently announced a three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. That's a part of this whole process, isn't it? Right. Yeah. Hezbollah here in Lebanon is backed by Iran and largely answers to that state. Iran had said it wouldn't engage in any further talks with the U.S. unless a ceasefire here was in place. So it was crucial that this ceasefire get extended in order for the U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan to keep

moving forward. And Kat, you've recently reported from the south of Lebanon where most of the fighting has been taking place. What did you see? Yeah, you know, it is relatively calmer in the south now, but life is definitely not back to normal there for most people. The Israeli military is still occupying a large swath of Lebanese land along the border, which includes dozens of Lebanese villages and towns, so many people still can't return home. And destruction from Israeli air and drone strikes is really everywhere, whole buildings toppled to the ground. It's important to point out that while diplomatically, the ceasefire agreement is still in place, both Israel and Hezbollah are still acknowledging attacks almost daily. Israel's been carrying out air strikes against what it says are

Hezbollah targets just this week. And Israeli air strike killed prominent Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil while she was reporting in the South, making her the eighth journalist killed by Israel in Lebanon since March. After that, Hezbollah says it fired rockets into northern Israel. Israel, all of which were intercepted by Israel. You know, many of the people I talked to in the South told me that they're worried that if talks between the U.S. and Iran fall through, the war here and Lebanon will almost certainly reignite in full. And Pierskot-Lansdorf in Beirut. Thanks so much for being with us. Thank you. It's been quite a week in the strange world of prediction markets. Those are the sites

like Kau-She and Polly Market, where people bet on everything from the war in Iran to the weather in Paris. In fact, police in France are looking into whether someone tampered with a weather reading device at Charles de Gaulle Airport to win a polymarket bet. Political candidates have been betting on their own campaigns and a special forces soldier was charged for allegedly using classified military information for a big payday on polymarket. Bobby Allen has dived deep into this world for NPR. He joins us now to talk about what's coming next for prediction markets. Thanks for joining us. Good to be here. So we saw the first criminal charges this week ever filed in the U.S. over a prediction market bet. Is this a sign that there will

be more to come or was this more of a one-off? So the boosters of prediction markets and, you know, the CEO of Polly Market are saying yes, that this U.S. Army Special Forces soldier who has now been indicted by the Justice Department for allegedly making $400,000 on these military secrets, that that happening shows that we're going to see more of this. But the truth of the matter is, on Polly Market, there are suspiciously well-time bets about things like military strikes, about world leaders being toppled, about what's going to happen in some international negotiation involving the Trump administration. And none of those have ever initiated any kind of real criminal investigation or charges coming down. And we've seen so many examples of suspected insider trading

on these sites. How was this soldier the first one to be caught in charge by the Justice Department? Yeah, you know, it's a curious case and an interesting question because most polymarket traders are using cryptocurrency and hiding behind crypto wallets, which basically keeps their trades anonymous, trying to figure out who's behind these polymarket accounts. It can be really hard. But in this instance, the soldier who made all this money used his personal email to open his Polymarket account. And when I and others did stories saying, whoa, this trade looks really suspicious and kind of fishy, he contacted Polymarket and said, hey, I've been logged out of my account. Can you please shut it down? And then shortly after that, this is all according to the indictment, he changed the email address associated with that profile. So that's how they caught him. And so, like, just to set the record straight on this, how is this legal?

Like, how is it legal to be betting on, like, you know, military actions or things of that nature? There are laws in place that say prediction markets cannot have any kind of bets on things like assassinations, on terrorism, on war. But we see these kinds of markets regularly on. polymarket. And that's because their most popular market operates overseas in Panama, kind of outside the reach of regulators. The U.S.-based prediction markets have more rules, but the Trump administration has taken a kind of anything goes hands-off approach. They say they are a cop on the beat. But for the most part, these platforms are policing themselves. And the laws that apply to say, Kaushi are not being applied to polymarket. And so the long and short of

it is they're kind of in this gray area and it's being litigated all across the country. Well, talk to me more about that because there has been a lot of pushback to polymarket and Kalshi at the state level. What are those fights about? Yeah, there's more than two dozen lawsuits from state officials alleging that Polymarket and Kalshi are nothing other than unlicensed sports gambling operations. And remember, on a site like Kaushi, I mean, you're seeing billions and billions of dollars in bets every week, but like 80% of that is a lot of associated with sporting events, but they have found a workaround state regulations by being overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. So technically, if you ask Kalshi,

they are not a sports betting app, but they are an app that provides event contracts on future events, right? And so what all of these state level battles are over is this question. Who should have jurisdiction over this industry, the federal government or states? And it's really unsettled right now. That's NPR's Bobby Allen. Thank you so much for joining us. Thanks, Asha. President Trump is set to attend the annual White House Correspondents Association Dinner in Washington, D.C. Tonight, the glitzy gathering is historically a chance for presidents and the press who cover them to come together to celebrate the First Amendment and show they can take a joke. But these are not normal times and for this president denigrating and undermining a free and independent press,

a standard operating procedure. We're joined now by NPR senior political correspondent Tamara Keith, who is a past president of the WHCA. Tam, thanks for being with us. You're welcome. You've been to this dinner a dozen times and watched a lot of presidential comedy routines. Which one stands out for you? You know, some of the best jokes from presidents are self-deprecating. like this one from George H.W. Bush in 1992. There's a lot of name calling out there. Candidates calling out terrible epithets like corrupt, liar, hypocrite, fascist, racist, incumbent.

Incumbent turned out to be the biggest insult of them all. Bush lost in his bid for re-election that year. The thing with comedy is when you're president of the United States, it is really hard to deliver a roast without punching down. And if you do punch down, it's a bad look that can earn you some ooze or just plain uncomfortable silences in a ballroom full of Washington insiders. I've been a few of these dinners myself. And at some point, the president usually strikes a serious note and talks about the importance

and their respect for a free press. That's usually been as about predictable as the chicken entree. Yes, though often it's surf and turf. No presidents like their press coverage. And they grouse privately and sometimes publicly about how we're always focusing on the negative. And as reporters, no matter who occupies the White House, we are trying to expose the truth and ask hard questions on behalf of the American people. In his last speech at the WHCA dinner in 1988, President Ronald Reagan captured this pretty well. As my goodbye, I'm not going to stand up here and deliver one of those.

worn out sentimental homilies about the press and the presidency. Neither of us would believe it. But then he actually did just that. And President Biden in 2023 somehow found a way to combine a sentimental nod to the importance of a free press with some of that self-deprecating humor. I believe in the First Amendment, not just because my good friend Jimmy Madison wrote it. The dinner that year was right after Biden announced. He was planning to run for re-election and his age was a huge issue, obviously.

And he was trying to neutralize it with humor. This will actually be President Trump's first White House Correspondents Association Dinner as president. He did notably attend once as a celebrity guest in 2011. I was there for that time. Were you? I remember that night. It's become kind of a political legend, isn't it? It has.

This was right around the time that Trump was going around demanding that President Obama release his long-form birth certificate. And at that dinner, Obama roundly mocked him for it. No one is happier. No one is prouder to put this birth certificate matter to rest than the Donald. And that's because he can finally get back to focusing on the issues that matter. Like, did we fake the moon landing? What really happened in Roswell? And where are Biggie and Tupac?

Trump recently talked about that night during a phone interview with Fox News. I said, you know, I love this. I'm having a good time. Because every joke was about me and I sort of liked it. I can handle that stuff. He didn't look like he was having a good time, but he will certainly be the center of attention again tonight. As we said at the top, these are not normal times. This is a president who doesn't mention the press without first inserting the word fake. So what kind of presentation are people expecting?

I think there's a lot of suspense about that. This is a dark time for the press, and this is a president coming to assert his dominance. It's like inviting the arsonist to your housewarming party. This president and his administration have undermined the press by punishing news organizations for their coverage decisions and punishing reporters who asked questions the president doesn't like. He has sued multiple news organizations. and, of course, successfully defunded public broadcasting. At the same time, though, this president needs the press like he needs oxygen,

and he routinely still takes calls from journalists. When I asked if President Trump plans to deliver comedy, press secretary Caroline Levitt told me, stay tuned. It will be great. Tamara Kee, thanks so much for being with us. Have a good time. Thank you. And I'd also just like to thank C-SPAN's Howard Mortman for helping me find some of these great presidential moments.

And that's up first for Saturday, April 25th, 2026. I'm Scott Simon. And I'm Aisha Rosco. Dave Mistich produced today's podcast with help from Martin Patience and Fernando Naro. Our editors were Diana Douglas, Miguel Macias, Megan Pratt, and Brett Neely. Here in the studio, our directors, Andy Craig and Lana Torric and our technical director, to get technical about it is Simon Laslo Janssen. They've got engineering support from Jay Sizz, Stacey Abbott, and Zoe Van Genhoven. Shannon Rhodes is our senior supervising editor. Our executive producer is E.B. Stone and Jim Kane is our deputy managing editor.

Tomorrow on the Sunday story, for kids who struggle with their emotions and behaviors, getting a label as having a disability can help them get through school. It can also hold them back. So thanks for listening, for joining us today, and for supporting your local NPR station. And if you need to find yours, and we all do, go to stations.npr.org.