Up First from NPR - Hurricane Evacuation Saves Lives, Mass Gathering in D.C., Mortgage Rate Mystery

Episode Date: October 12, 2024

The death toll from Milton is lower than expected because many residents got out of harm's way. Some of the leaders behind the Stop the Steal movement are back on the National Mall today. Home mortgage rates climbed this week even despite cuts by the Federal Reserve.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hundreds of thousands of people evacuated ahead of Hurricane Milton's landfall this week in Florida. Officials say that's one reason the death toll is lower than expected. I'm Scott Simon. And I'm Ayesha Roscoe. This is Up First from NPR News. We talked to some of the people who fled. You gotta be a realist. And I'll always run if it's looking like it could kill us. Also a mass gathering in Washington, D.C. today, organized by people connected to the January 6 rally,

the one that preceded the attack on the Capitol. And why did mortgage rates climb even though the Fed lowered its target interest rate? So please stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your weekend. Send or receive money internationally and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the Wyze app today or visit wyze.com, T's and C's apply. Support for this podcast and the following message come from the NPR Wine Club, which has generated over $1.75 million to support NPR programming.

Whether buying a few bottles or joining the club, you can learn more at nprwineclub.org slash podcast. Must be 21 or older to purchase. When voters talk during an election season, we listen. We ask questions, we follow up, and we bring you along to hear what we learned. Get closer to the issues, the people, and your vote at the NPR Elections Hub. Visit npr.org slash elections. It's a high stakes election year,

so it's not enough to just follow along. You need to understand what's happening so you are fully informed come November. Every weekday on the NPR Politics Podcast, our political reporters break down important stories and backstories from the campaign trail, so you understand why it matters to you. Listen to the MPR Politics Podcast wherever you get your podcasts. This message comes from the podcast, Strict Scrutiny.

Join law experts Melissa Murray, Leah Littman, and Kate Shaw as they break down the biggest legal headlines and SCOTUS decisions. New episodes drop every Monday. Subscribe to Strict Scrutiny wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube. This message comes from Slow Burn, the rise of Fox News, Slate's podcast

that explores how a cable news channel became a cultural and political force and how a whole bunch of people rose up to try and stop it. Follow wherever you listen to podcasts. More than 10 people have died as a result of Hurricane Milton. Authorities say that number would be much higher if more people had stayed in their homes. And Piers, Adrian Florido has been talking to residents about their decision to stay

or go. And he joins us now from Sarasota, where Milton made landfall. Adrian, thanks for being with us. You're welcome, Scott. Residents who left are now returning home and what do they find? Well, some are finding damage and destruction. Others, that their homes were spared. I visited Deborah and Stephen Lortz at their house yesterday. As soon as the storm passed on Thursday morning, they rushed out of the shelter that they'd evacuated to. They were eager to see if their house had survived. They drove around downed trees and power lines. We came around the waterway and mixed our way through and got here and she was here.

Their house was fine. The roof lost just one shingle. One little piece of shingleingle which is just a miracle. The Lartzes are both Floridians in their 60s Scott. They have lived through a lot of hurricanes but they had never evacuated for one they told me until now. Because this looked different than any of the others. It had a beautiful eye and the eye wall was like thick and we saw that and we said we're staying. Adrian, how do they feel about their decision to leave? Well, they said they would not have changed it. Because you got to be a realist and I'll always run if it's looking like it could

kill us. Scott officials are saying that the fact that so many other people evacuated just like them is one reason there weren't more deaths. Because a lot of homes were flooded in this storm. They were damaged or destroyed. And of course, you also spoke with people who chose not to leave their homes despite the warnings. Yeah. In fact, I spoke with the Lord's his neighbors who live just a few doors

down and Osa Atoy and her partner, Joey decided to write it out. Everybody's situation is different and everyone needs to make the best decision for themselves. Now, Osa said that she and her partner did a detailed assessment of their house. It's made of concrete, it's got a brand new metal roof. They weren't worried about flooding because they're 16 feet above sea level.

Which sounds like nothing to other people, but that's like one of the highest points in the city of Sarasota. People they know gave them flak for deciding to stay. But we also as a family made decisions and felt safe staying in our home in our particular situation. Osa says that she knows that for some people though, you know, even for some of her neighbors with different types of houses or at slightly lower elevations, this would not have been the right choice.

Of course, the worst did not come to pass with this hurricane. Are experts worried, Adrian, that this might affect how people respond in the future when storms come ashore? You know, I asked Ioannis Zissis that. He's an engineer at Florida International University. He researches how to build more hurricane-resistant homes. I'm concerned, I'm a little bit afraid that the average homeowner, the next time they ask them to evacuate, they might think of, oh, you know, last time nothing happened.

No, it doesn't work like that. We should keep taking seriously these extreme events. Especially, he says, because these storms are getting stronger and people's houses might have structural weaknesses that they're not even aware of And here's Adrienne Florido in Sarasota. Thanks so much. Thank you Scott Yom Kippur is the traditional Jewish day of atonement Christian leaders called for people to gather today at the National Mall for Day of Atonement as well, women in particular. Though the event is not expected to get violent, its leaders played a big role in the Stop the Steal movement four years ago.

NPR's domestic extremism correspondent Odette Youssef is here to tell us more about it. Odette, thanks for being with us. Odette Youssef Sure thing. Pete The organizer of this event called for a million women to gather at the mall. How do they use the term Esther? What's that about? Odette Youssef Yeah. So, to understand this, we have to look to the Hebrew Bible. You know, this is a reference to the Book of Esther, which tells the story set in the 5th century B.C.E. of Esther, the Jewish wife of

the Persian king. And according to this story, Esther became aware that one of the king's courtiers was organizing a pogrom against the Jews. And so she's urged by her relative, a man named Mordecai, to use her position of influence to thwart that plot, and she does. So today's rally is happening on the Jewish Day of Atonement, Yom Kippur, and it's calling on Christian women, the Esther's and the men in their lives, the Mordecai's, to fast and pray and gather on the Malfur, the deliverance of the nation. And really, Scott, this is the national culmination of dozens of state-based rallies that were

held back in the spring at state capitals under the tagline, Don't Mess With Our Kids. And those had attendance that ranged from the hundreds to the thousands. And what do they want to communicate with that slogan, Don't Mess With Our Kids? Yeah, it's not very specific, right? And I think maybe that's by design to sort of roll in people who've been activated around several disparate issues in the last few years. So we're expecting the moms for liberty types who've built influence through anti-LGBTQ campaigns. We'll also likely see people who want to see a national abortion ban. And then there are people who believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory. I spoke with Matthew Taylor. He's a senior

scholar at the Institute for Islamic, Christian, and Jewish Studies, and he says that these narratives that inspire fear over children being abused can be dangerous. The way that they are ratcheting up the rhetoric about the threat to children in and of itself I think is dangerous in the way that it creates a permission structure that says we have to do whatever we can to stop this group because otherwise our children will suffer or die because of them. So it'll be interesting, Scott, to see how this energy that was really developed in the

last four years at the local level with these school board fights and library fights translates when it comes together nationally in these weeks before the election. And who organized this event? The organizers are Jenny Donnelly and Lou Engel. Both of them are connected to a network known as the New Apostolic Reformation, or NAR. And the NAR is a collection of non-denominational charismatic churches and leaders. Some of them call themselves prophets and apostles. And this network has been very closely tied in with former President Trump. And Taylor, the religious scholar that we heard from earlier, says that when Trump became

president, he played a key role in sort of shifting the seat of power within the religious right to emphasize this NAR network. The last four years, as of anyways, completely changed the landscape of the religious right in America in the Trump era to the point where many of the most active religious leaders in our politics right now are people that 90% of the country have never heard of. So again, this event isn't explicitly political, but Taylor says that in 2020 there were similar gatherings that they held in DC ahead of that election. event isn't explicitly political, but Taylor says that in 2020, there were similar gatherings that they held in DC ahead of that election, and that helped build energy for Trump. And

after election day, that energy was directed towards stop the steel efforts and of course, ultimately January 6th. This time, political violence researchers don't expect another January 6th at the Capitol. But there's closer attention now to the narratives that are unifying Trump supporters and the question of where that energy will go if he loses. And Piers Adet-Yousef, thanks so much for being with us Adet. Thank you. You know how we always say the Federal Reserve's actions affect home mortgage rates? Well, they do, but not always precisely.

Like this week when mortgage rates rose even though the Fed cut its target last month. NPR personal finance correspondent Laurel Walmsley is here to explain. Hi Laurel. Hey Ayesha. So mortgage rates went up this week, even though interest rates are lower. What in the world is going on here? That's right. The latest data from Freddie Mac showed that the average 30-year mortgage rate had increased

to 6.3% this week. That's about a quarter point higher than it was two weeks ago. That's probably an unwelcome surprise to the folks who are finally coming off the sidelines to start shopping for a home. So why is this happening? It's because mortgage rates aren't tied to the Fed's are finally coming off the sidelines to start shopping for a home. So why is this happening? It's because mortgage rates aren't tied to the Fed's interest rate, but instead they follow a different number, the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond. And that went higher this week for a number of reasons.

Got it. So it's not set by the Fed? I mean, that's what I thought. No, there's different numbers floating around and this is not, it's influenced by the Fed, but it's not said by the Fed. And also keep in mind that the local lenders who actually give you your mortgage need to cover their costs and make a profit. So they add their own percentage on top.

And the specific mortgage rate that you would get would depend on your own factors like your credit score and the size and type of loan that you're getting. But overall, aren't mortgage rates lower than they were recently? Yes and that is the big picture to take away from this still. Even with this uptick, mortgage rates are more than a full point lower than they were this time last year and lots of people are taking advantage of that. They're refinancing their mortgages if they bought a house in the last couple years when rates were higher. The lower rates mean they can potentially save

hundreds of dollars a month. So it sounds like mortgage rates are sort of a moving target right now. Is there any sense of where they'll settle? And that's what I really need to know. Where are they going? You and me both. So I posed that question to Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. And here's what he said. I think the new normal, maybe 6% mortgage rate, which we are very close to. If we are lucky, maybe we get to 5.5% mortgage rate. Or we could be unlucky, he said, and the rate goes back up towards 7%. So this kind of predicting is hard even for economists. But looking around

at several forecasts, many of them have rates staying above 6% through the end of this year and falling to about 5.8 next year. So if you do want to buy a home, you might not want to wait to see if rates will drop. Because if they do, you could always refinance to a lower rate. But if they rise, it just gets harder to afford a home. So has this had any effect on the housing market? Like are more people shopping for homes? Well, it's still a little early to tell, since buying a home can take months, from shopping to actually closing.

But there are some indications that the lower rates are shaking things a bit looser. So like what? Well, for instance, more people are listing their homes for sale. There are 23% more existing homes on the market than there were a year ago. And there's a lot of new homes for sale, too. That's really good news for buyers who have not had much to choose from. And home sellers tend to be home buyers as well. So those folks might be entering the market soon. And some sellers have probably been waiting for mortgage rates to drop because it's hard to give up the super low rates that many locked in during the pandemic, even if they're

outgrowing their current home. And then another indicator is that applications for mortgages have ticked up a bit, 8% higher than a year ago, which also suggests that more people are preparing to buy a home. It's fall now. School has started. Is this a hot time for home sales? Well, definitely not as much as spring and early summer are. So it could be March before we really see a rebound get going here. Fannie Mae is predicting that home sales could be 10% higher next year coming off of the

very low levels that we've been seeing. And as I said, this all goes to show how the Fed can influence mortgage rates, but it does not set them. That's NPR's Laura Wamsley. Thank you so very much. You're welcome. And that's up first for Saturday, October 12th, 2024. I'm Scott Simon. And I'm Ayesha Roscoe.

Michael Radcliffe produced today's podcast with help from Fernando Naro, Martin Patience, and Kira Joaquin. Danny Hensel directed. Our editors were Katherine Laidlaw, Gigi Duban, Andrew Sussman, Rafael Nam, and Matthew Sherman. Hannah Glovna is our technical director with engineering

support from Nisha Hines, Andy Huther and Ted Meebang. Evie Stone is our senior supervising editor. Sarah Lucy Oliver is our executive producer with help this week from Julia Redpath. Jim Kane is our deputy managing editor. Oh, we've been wondering. Tomorrow on the Sunday story I'll talk with author Ta-Nehisi Coates about his new book, The Message, a collection of essays, including one on the conflict in the Middle East. And while you're waiting for that episode to drop, you can listen to more news, interviews, sports, music, you know, even just some fun. Go to stations.npr.org to find your local NPR station. Don't delay. Do it now.

Let's wait for them, Aisha. Aisha Just a... No, we'll sit here. We've got time. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon Prime members can listen to Up First sponsor free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get Up First Plus at plus.npr.org. That's plus.npr.org. This message comes from Organic Valley, a dairy cooperative of small organic family farms dedicated to protecting where your food comes from Organic Valley, a dairy cooperative of small organic family farms dedicated

to protecting where your food comes from through organic farming. When you choose Organic Valley, not only do you get creamy, delicious organic dairy, you help protect thousands of acres of land and all the plants and animals that call it home. Learn how Organic Valley is protecting where your food comes from and see how your milk money can make a difference at ov.coop.