Up First from NPR - India And Pakistan Latest, Libya Deportations, The Fed And Interest Rates

Episode Date: May 8, 2025

Pakistan's defense minister warned that hostilities between his country and India could escalate into a nuclear confrontation, the White House plans to add Libya to the list of countries where it sends deportees, and the Federal Reserve voted to keep interest rates unchanged, for now.Want more comprehensive analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today's episode of Up First was edited by Ryland Barton, Anna Yukhananov, Rafael Nam, Janaya Williams and Alice Woelfle. It was produced by Kaity Kline, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott. And our technical director is Carleigh Strange. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Pakistan says it's shot down drones over some of its major cities. It's the aftermath of Indian airstrikes. How are two nuclear powers managing the latest confrontation in their generations-long Cold War? I'm Steve Inskeep with Leila Fadl, and this is Up First from NPR News. President Trump's administration plans to send migrants removed from the United States to Libya. The U.S. has deportation deals already with Mexico and El Salvador, so why another?

And the Federal Reserve says it will wait and see how the economy responds to higher tariffs, but interest rates will remain unchanged for now. People are feeling stress and concern, but unemployment hasn't gone up, job creation is fine, wages are in good shape. Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day. This message comes from NPR sponsor Vanta. Whether you're a startup founder or a seasoned security professional, proving your commitment to security has never been more critical or more complex. Vanta automates compliance for SOC 2, ISO 27001, HIPAA, and more, helping you build customer trust. According to a recent IDC study, Vanta

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podcast today. Blasts heard over Pakistan's second largest city is the latest step in a generations-long conflict in South Asia. This morning residents in Pakistan's second largest city of Lahore were hearing explosions. Pakistan's military spokesman, Lieutenant General Ahmad Sharif, says Pakistan shot down Indian drones, which he says were flying over major cities. This naked aggression continues and the armed forces are on high degree of alert and neutralizing them as we speak. This is a serious, serious provocation.

Let's remember here, India launched multiple strikes against Pakistan on Tuesday. These were considered the most extensive attacks that India has carried out in more than 50 years. India says it was responding to terror attacks last month that were launched out of Pakistani territory. On the line with us is NPR's Diya Hadid. She's in Mumbai and covers both India and Pakistan. Good morning. Good morning, Leila. So, Diya, just bring us up to speed. What is happening today? Right. Well, the Pakistani army spokesman, Lieutenant General Ahmad Sharif accused India

of setting across 25 Israeli-made drones this morning. He says some of them flew over major population centers, including Karachi, which is the biggest city in the country with 20 million people, and crucially, Rawalpindi, which is home to Pakistan's general military headquarters. Sharif says they shot down all the drones, except for one that targeted an old airport in Lahore. He says four military personnel were injured and one civilian killed.

Sharif just spoke to the media in English. That's a signal that his message is for the West. It appears that India has apparently lost the plot and rather than going on a path of rationality is further escalating in a highly charged environment to satisfy the hubristic mindset of the Indian government. What he's referring to there, Leila, is India's Hindu nationalist government, which had vowed retribution for a militant attack in late April, where gunmen opened fire on tourists in a meadow, killing 26. India blamed Pakistan for that attack. Pakistan says it's not connected, but it's that incident which triggered these escalations. Right, but I'm thinking where does this go?

It seems like tensions are just rising and rising at this point. At this point, yes, but if I can step back a bit, when India struck Pakistan earlier this week, the Indian military had quickly signaled they were not seeking an escalation. And Pakistan said it shot down five Indian military aircraft. And analysts told me they were waiting to see if that would be enough for Pakistan to show its people that the army was defending the country. Even this morning, the Pakistani deputy prime minister confirmed that national security advisors of both countries had spoken to each other so it was looking hopeful. But then the accusation happened of India sending drones over Pakistani airspace. So Ajay Shukla,

he is a retired Indian army colonel and he says any new development here changes all calculations. And the dynamic between those two are sort of hostile and sort of aggressive. Then what was said two days ago no longer holds good. There is absolutely a scope for something bigger. Has India said anything about these allegations about the drones? Not so far, but India's foreign minister has just said if the country is attacked, there'll be a firm response. And it's important to remember already in this latest escalation, there are casualties.

More than 30 people on the Pakistani side, including children, and more than 12 people killed in India. And that doesn't even include the 26 people who were killed by gunmen in late April, which triggered this whole escalation. That's Diya Hadid in Mumbai. Thank you, Dia. Thank you, Leila. The Trump administration wants to send migrants to Libya, possibly as soon as this week. Libya, US officials have spent the last few months negotiating with various countries

to see who is willing to take in people deported from the United States. And PRS immigration reporter Jimena Ostio joins us now to talk about all this. Good morning Jimena. Good morning. So what do we know about this plan to send migrants to Libya? Yesterday my colleague Tom Bowman confirmed administration officials are planning to use Libya as a destination for migrants removed from the US.

Earlier this week Rwanda's foreign minister also said it was in talks with Washington about the same issue. And of course, the U.S. has had similar deals already with Mexico and El Salvador. Now, the deportations to Libya would be carried out by the U.S. military, but it's not clear how many people or what nationalities would be sent under the deal. President Trump told reporters yesterday he didn't know about the plan and to ask the Department of Homeland Security. Homeland Security did not respond to NPR's requests to confirm the plans. Okay, so we've already seen actions in court to try and stop these military flights before

they've even happened. What can you tell us about the lawsuit? A judge in Massachusetts already issued an injunction blocking the Homeland Security Department from removing migrants to these third countries. That means deporting people to countries they're not originally from. The administration has found workarounds though. They've used other agencies such as the Defense Department to remove people from the US.

Immigration lawyers filed an emergency motion yesterday asking that same judge to again block removals to Libya or any third country. They argued their clients who are Laotian, Vietnamese, and Filipino could be sent in a matter of hours. And last night, the judge issued another order. It clarifies DHS can't use a loophole and that any agencies, including the Pentagon, can't deport people to these third countries, unless those people get prior time to contest their removals. Okay, so there's a legal block in this court. I mean, Libya is not considered the safest country.

Have other concerns been raised about this plan? First off, Libya has been wrestling with violence and armed conflict since the civil war that toppled Muammar Gaddafi almost 15 years ago. The country is still in turmoil. There is a military strongman who controls the eastern half of the country and a UN-backed government controls the West. And I'd note both governments issued statements rejecting the plan to send migrants there. And Libya has a notorious human rights record. Yeah, I mean this isn't the first deal though that the White House has made with other countries. We've already reported a lot on the US paying El Salvador $6 million to house migrants removed

from the US in a mega prison there. What's the point of these agreements? One of the main goals is to send migrants further away to avoid people crossing back over US borders. And that's according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But there are plenty of practical implications. About 1.4 million people have pending deportation orders. That's according to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency.

But there are many challenges to sending them back to their home countries. One is that their home countries may not agree to accept them or actually have limits on how many people or flights they will take from the United States. And this has created challenges for past administrations because it means that even if someone has a final removal order, they may not actually be removed. But Trump's goal is to increase the pace of deportations, as we've been reporting, and that does mean finding more places for people to go. So the administration is aiming to make these inroads with these kind of quote third party countries that can take in deportees. If Libya isn't under the table, others likely will be. NPR's Ximena Postillo, thank you Ximena.

Thank you, Jimena. Thank you. If you're waiting for lower interest rates to take out a car loan, finance a business, or just make a big purchase on your credit card, you're going to have to wait a bit longer. Policymakers at the Federal Reserve voted to hold short-term interest rates steady for now. That's how powerful they are. They make news even when they do nothing, which is what they chose to do here while they wait to see how President Trump's trade

war plays out in the U.S. economy. NPR's Scott Horsley has been watching the Fed's deliberations and he joins us now. Hi, Scott. Good morning, Lila. Okay. So in its statement, the Fed pointed to growing uncertainty about the economic outlook. What does it mean by that? Well, it's been just over a month since President Trump ordered worldwide tariffs, effectively dropping a giant rock into the oceans on which global trade flows, and we're still waiting to

see where their resulting waves wash up. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says if those tariffs last, they could have a profound effect on the economy. But the Trump administration has already backtracked on some of the import taxes, so Powell says it's not clear they're going to stick around. My gut tells me that uncertainty about the path of the economy is extremely elevated. The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen, but they haven't materialized yet. And that tells me the right thing to do is await further clarity. Fed policymakers voted unanimously yesterday to keep interest rates where they've been since the end of last year.

They'll have another chance to adjust rates though in June and then again in July. What will Fed policymakers be watching for between now and then? They're watching for any sign of increased pressure on prices, which could rekindle inflation, or any weakening in the job market that could lead to higher unemployment. We know the trade war has taken a toll on consumer confidence. People are clearly worried about higher inflation and the prospect of widespread layoffs. But just last week we learned that employers added 177,000 jobs in April, so Palin and

his colleagues just don't feel a great sense of urgency right now to goose the economy by cutting rates. People are feeling stress and concern, but unemployment hasn't gone up, job creation is fine, wages are in good shape. The economy itself is still, you know, in solid shape. Now one early warning sign we have seen is the drop in cargo traffic from China, Trump's triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods have put a big dent in shipments across the Pacific Ocean. We could start to see some empty store shelves in a few weeks because of that, but as we learned during the pandemic, when there's a problem with supply chains, there's not a whole lot the central bank and its interest

rate tools can do about that. Now, President Trump has repeatedly called on the Fed to lower interest rates. Is that having any effect? Not really. It's made headlines, but Powell and his colleagues don't seem to be paying a lot of attention. Powell's term as Fed chairman does run out in about a year, and at that point, Trump will get to install a new chairman. Powell was asked yesterday if he might stay on the board after he steps down his chair.

He didn't answer, but said he's focused on these next 12 months. My whole focus is on, and my colleagues' focus is all on, trying to navigate this tricky passage we're in right now. Trying to make the right decisions for the people that we serve. Presidents often want lower rates to goose the economy, although most are not so outspoken as Trump is. But that's why the Fed was set up to be insulated from political pressure. So policymakers can do what they think is best for the economy, even if it's not popular in the short run. NPR Scott Horsey Thank you, Scott. You're welcome And that's a first for Thursday May 8th, I'm Leila Faldon and I'm Steve Inskeep Your next listen is consider this from NPR news up first gives you three big stories of the day

Consider this dives Deep On One. Listen now on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Rylan Barton, Anna Yukononov, Raphael Naum, Janaya Williams and Alice Wolpley. It was produced by Katie Klein, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott

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