Up First from NPR - Iran-Israel Conflict Latest, Trump On Iran, Social Security Funds

Episode Date: June 19, 2025

The latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, and the evolution of President Trump's thinking on whether to involve the US. Plus, the Social Security trust fund is expected to run out of cash in eight years, unless Congress acts before then.Want more comprehensive analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Roberta Rampton, Alex Leff, Jane Greenhalgh, Janaya Williams and Alice Woelfle. It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Claire Murashima and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott. And our technical director is Carleigh Strange. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

President Trump talks of strikes against Iran. I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do. I can tell you this, that Iran's got a lot of trouble. Why do some of his allies warn of forever war? I'm Steve Inskeep with Laila Fadl, and this is Up First from NPR News. Iranians are fleeing their capital as Israeli attacks escalate. Israelis suffered damage to a hospital.

What is life like in an Israeli neighborhood that suffered damage? Our colleague Daniel Estrin is an eyewitness. And the Social Security Trust Fund now looks a little less stable. The people who oversee it say it's projected to run out of cash in less than 10 years. We're worried that we're not going to get it. It's going to be taken away. So we better get it while we can. Stay with us.

We'll give you the news you need to start your day. President Trump is being mysterious about whether he plans to join Israel's war on Iran. Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, told our correspondent, Daniel Estrin, in an interview that he welcomes international support and that Israel has a dialogue with the U.S. It's a decision that needs to be taken by the president and his team. While we wait to learn about that decision, the war continues. Overnight, Israel says its air force struck the Iraq nuclear reactor in Iran.

Israel is expanding its targets to Iranian government sites. And Iran has launched more missiles at Israel, striking a major hospital and residential buildings. NPR's Daniel Estrin joins us now from one site hit this morning in central Israel. Good morning, Daniel. Good morning, Leila. I can hear a lot of bustling around you. Where are you right now? I'm in central Israel. Good morning, Daniel. Good morning, Leila. I can hear a lot of bustling around you. Where are you right now?

I'm in Cholon. It's a suburb of Tel Aviv. And I'm outside the multi-story apartment building that authorities say was the worst hit site by Iranian missiles early this morning. They say several people were badly injured here. I'm looking at concrete, a mix of exposed rebar, car windows shattered.

And also in southern Israel, the biggest hospital there was hit by Iranian missiles. No serious injuries were reported. By the way, Iranian state media says Israel also struck a hospital in Iran earlier this week. But here, residents are very shaken this morning. I spoke to some who said dust filled the bunker that they were in through the windows that blew open from the blast.

And you mentioned the hospital which was hit in southern Israel. Tell us more about what Israel hit overnight in Iran. Well, one of the main targets, according to Israel, was the Iraq nuclear reactor. Now, Israeli military officials say the site was never operational, but they say it could be activated if Iranian leaders decide to do so. But we don't have clear reports

from the ground in Iran, Leila. Iran blocked internet access overnight, and Iran does not give details about most Israeli strikes. I should also say Israeli officials, while they acknowledge that military sites have been hit by Iran, they issue gag orders on reporting exactly which ones. But Israel does say that it is now expanding its targets to include Iranian government sites in Tehran. And they say that will be to, quote, destabilize the regime. Interesting. So as you point out, for all the reasons that you just said, we don't know a lot about what's

happening inside Iran. But Daniel, you did speak to the president of Israel, as we mentioned earlier. Is regime change an official goal of Israel's offensive in Iran? Well, when I sat down with Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, yesterday, he said, it would be up to the people of Iran to rise up against the regime,

but he said that could be a secondary result of Israel's attacks. He says Israel's main goal is to destroy Iran's nuclear program. Now, President Trump says he hasn't yet decided to attack Iran's nuclear program. What does Israel want? Well, here's what President Herzog told me about that yesterday. We would welcome anything that helps eradicate the Iranian nuclear program completely, including the main two sides, Ferdow and Natanz. But as we said, we are doing it alone, and we hope that there will be

further support by other nations. I spoke to one Israeli man, Eli Mashiach, who ran down to his bombshell in the building that took a direct hit here, and he said Israel needs U.S. help to destroy the nuclear program. Israel couldn't do it. Just Trump.

B-52, boom, boom. The U.S. does have B-52 warplanes, and the bombs needed to penetrate Iran's most fortified nuclear site, Fordow. So many Israelis are hoping for that this morning, that Trump agrees to join the war. NPR's Daniel Estrin reporting from the site of an Iranian missile attack in central Israel. Thank you Daniel. You're welcome. Here's some of what the president said to reporters yesterday about striking an Iranian facility at Fordow. We're the only ones that have the capability to do it but that doesn't mean I'm going to do it at

all. In the space of a few minutes the president said quote I've had it with Iran but also said that in war quote a lot of bad things can happen. And PR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez joins us to talk about it. Good morning, Franco. Good morning, Leila. So you were part of the Scrum of Reporters pressing President Trump yesterday for details of his plans. What's he signaling?

You know, the president continues to leave the door open for US strikes. In the Oval Office, he told us he has some ideas about what to do, but that he also likes to make final decisions at the last minute because things change, especially with war. And he had this to say on the lawn. I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do. I can tell you this, that Iran's got a lot of trouble and they want to negotiate. And I said, why didn't you negotiate with me before all this death?

Yesterday he met again with his national security team inside the situation room and they are clearly continuing to discuss these next steps. So we hear him there saying maybe I'll do it, maybe I won't. I mean, is this just a negotiating tactic to pressure Iran? I mean, that is always a high potential with Trump. I mean, remember his message is often peace through strength, and he's definitely giving off some mixed signals. I mean, I asked him several times about whether he'd send US officials to meet with Iranians, which he said he might. Trump said Iranian officials have actually reached out to him to negotiate,

including suggesting a visit to the White House. Trump said he was open to that idea and appreciated the offer, but he also said it was probably too late. Okay. How is Iran responding? I mean, strongly. I mean, the foreign minister released a statement last night saying that Iran is solely acting in self-defense and that they are not seeking to develop a nuclear weapon. And Iran's diplomatic mission to the United Nations

dismissed Trump's claims that Iran seeks negotiations with the White House, even calling Trump cowardly, the mission said they would not negotiate under duress. Frank, you told us yesterday about how the prospect of US involvement has really split Trump's most ardent supporters. Anything new there? Yeah, it really has. And Trump has really brist's most ardent supporters. Anything new there? Yeah, it really has.

And Trump has really bristled over the comments from former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who opposes U.S. intervention. Trump actually said yesterday that Carlson called him and apologized for some of the things he said, but Carlson has not backed down, nor have others, such as Trump's former aide, Steve Bannon, who told reporters

at an event yesterday that MAGA world is very concerned about another forever war. Trump had this to say about those kinds of concerns. I don't want to fight either. I'm not looking to fight. But if it's a choice between fighting and them having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do. Can we talk more though about his evolution? Because this is a dramatic shift from just

a week ago when he was invested in a diplomatic resolution with Iran. Yeah, I mean, clearly he's had an evolution in his thinking. And he acknowledged that yesterday explaining how it shifted after the first night of strikes, how he has been disappointed in the slow pace of negotiations. You know, that evolution has been particularly stark over the last few days. You know, first denying involvement in the strikes to later taking some credit for it. And now Trump is saying that the US may be the only ones to finish the job. That's NPR's Franco Ordonius. Thank you, Franco.

Thank you, Franco. Thank you. The Social Security Trust Fund is expected to run out of cash in eight years, according to a new report. Unless Congress acts before then, benefits for millions of retirees would be cut by 23%. NPR's Laurel Wamsley is here to talk with us about what this all means. Good morning Laurel. Good morning, Leila. Okay, so this really doesn't sound like good news for retirees and Americans who hope to retire someday.

So how did the country get to this point? Yeah, well, this is a long running concern and now we know it's gotten a bit worse according to this new report from the program's trustees. Like you said, the Social Security Trust Fund is expected to run out of cash eight years from now, that's early 2033. And it's a bit sooner than previously expected. That's largely because of this new law

that increased benefits for nearly 3 million workers who get pensions, like teachers, firefighters, and federal employees. Those increased benefits mean the trust fund will be depleted sooner. And the trust fund is where social security taxes and other income are deposited. Now social security retirement benefits are largely pay-as-you-go. The money for today's retirees come from the payroll taxes of today's workers. For a long time, over three decades, there was more money going in than coming out.

But in 2021, that changed and Social Security started redeeming the trust funds reserves. Okay, so you said it changed in 2021. What caused the need to dip into those funds? Well, demographics changed. The population of the US is aging. More than 11,000 baby boomers turn 65 every day. And for each person who's drawing Social Security, there are now fewer young workers paying taxes to support the system. For now, the trust fund works as a backstop. But once it's depleted, there won't be enough coming in to cover the full amount of promised retirement benefits. Okay, so when the trust fund runs through its reserves, do people's benefits just disappear? No, but they would be cut significantly. Retirees would receive just 77% of their promised benefits and that percentage

would continue to decline to 69% by the end of the century. And that matters because Social Security benefits are the largest source of income for most retirees. And you know, this news is coming just as there's been an 18% spike in social security claims so far this year. Oh wow, I mean, what's behind that spike? Well, some of it is because baby boomers are hitting retirement age and because of that new law affecting people with pensions.

But there's another reason I heard from a lot of folks filing sooner than they'd planned, that they're worried about their future. I spoke with Bill Armstrong and birthed Colorado. He moved up his date to file for social security. He's fighting cancer and has had a hard time finding work. He said he knows plenty of other people claiming right now. We're worried that we're not going to get it.

It's going to be taken away. So we better get it while we can. So what can be done about the shortfall in social security funds? Well, Congress could raise taxes, they could cut benefits, or some combination of the two. Currently, for instance, people don't pay social security taxes on any income

above $176,000 a year. To help fill the gap, Congress could change that. If no changes are made, though, benefits will be cut automatically when that trust fund runs out. That's NPR's Laura Wamsley. Thank you, Laura. You're welcome. And that's Up First for Thursday, June 19th. Juneteenth. Happy Juneteenth. I'm Leila Faldon. And I'm Steve Inscape. Your next listen can be Consider This from NPR News. Up First gives

you three big stories of the day. Consider This dives into one. Listen now. And today's episode of Up First was edited by Roberta Rampton, Alex Leff, Jane Greenhalgh, Jenae Williams, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziad Butch, Claire Marashima, and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott and our technical director is Carly, sorry Carly, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow. I was waiting to say perfect pronunciation on all the names and then right at the end. And then my favorite name, Carly Strange, detective. Carly Lestrange.

Carly Lestrange. She just, it makes me think of Carmen San Diego. I don't know why. Oh, maybe that's it. Remember? Yeah, yeah.