Up First from NPR - Iran War Expanding, Khamenei Successor, China Mediates Middle East War

Episode Date: March 5, 2026

Iranians are fleeing as Israel and the U.S. keep striking Iran, the fighting continues in Lebanon, and the war’s spillover is rattling Gulf countries.President Trump is offering shifting explanations for why the U.S. struck Iran, as the White House tries to line up its message and Americans remain wary about what the war is meant to achieve.And China says it will send a special envoy to the Middle East as Beijing’s annual “Two Sessions” get underway, with leaders warning the world is getting more volatile even as growth slows at home.Want more analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today’s episode of Up First was edited by Hannah Bloch, Miguel Macias, James Hider, Tina Kraja, Mohamad ElBardicy and Alice Woelfle.It was produced by Ziad Buchh and Ben Abrams.Our director is Christopher Thomas.We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis. Our technical director is Carleigh Strange.And our Deputy Executive Producer is Kelley Dickens.(0:00) Introduction(02:10) Iran War Expanding(06:13) Khamenei Successor(09:49) China Mediates Middle East WarTo manage podcast ad preferences, review the links below:See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for NPR and the following message come from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, investing in creative thinkers and problem solvers who help people, communities, and the planet flourish. More information is available at Hewlett.org. Good morning. Is Up First part of your routine? In a recent review, user Darbonza said up first is the perfect length for morning coffee. If you agree, head over to your podcast app and leave us a rating or a review. It helps the algorithm show up first to more people looking to stay informed. And thank you. Some Iranians are fleeing the war on their country. Our correspondent is meeting them as they reach Turkey. We'll hear what people are seeing and where they're going to escape the war that's

spreading across the region. I'm Steve Inskeep with Michelle Martin, and this is up first from NPR News. Iran postponed the morning ceremony for its supreme leader as attacks continue on the capital Tehran. Clerics are choosing who will lead Iran in the middle of a war, and many eyes are on the former leader's son. And China says it's sending a special envoy to the Middle East, as Beijing opens its two sessions meeting where leaders set priorities for the year. Is China trying to position itself as a mediator or protecting its oil interests? Staying with us. We'll give you news you need to start your day. Support for NPR and the following message come from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. Investing in creative thinkers and

problem solvers who help people, communities, and the planet flourish. More information is available at Hewlett.org. Israel and the U.S. are continuing to hit Iran on the sixth day of the war. Iran says the United States will, quote, bitterly regret torpedoing one of its warships yesterday in the Indian ocean in an attack that killed at least 87 people. Here's a few updates overnight. Israel has tracked multiple incoming missile attacks. Air sirens blared overnight and into this morning in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. All this as the war continues to spread across the region. Israeli attacks continue in Lebanon and Iranian strikes are causing turmoil in numerous Gulf countries. NPR's Ruth Sherlock is in Turkey close to the border with Iran, where she's been speaking with Iranians coming across the border.

And she's with us now. Ruth, hello. Thanks so much for joining us. Hi, good morning. So as we said, you've been on the border with Iran. Tell us what you're seeing. Well, Michelle, people are coming out traumatized. You know, Iran isn't letting Western journalists into the country, but speaking with Iranians here on the border, it really drives home the horror of this war for civilians. Everyone was too scared to give their name, as speaking with Western media has gotten people arrested in Iran. This man talked about his journey out. It's a little hard to hear, but he's saying there was bombing through the night as he traveled, children killed in Iran.

He says he and his family have come to Turkey for shelter. I also spoke with a doctor from Tehran who described the terror of being engulfed in smoke and feeling the back blast of a strike that hit close to her car on the journey out. She says she's also witnessing many, many civilian casualties from these strikes. You know, these are densely packed neighbourhoods and she says, residential buildings are also getting hit. She's been treating civilians with horrific injuries, she's. says. The Iranian Ministry of Health records 926 people killed in just these few days. And despite all this,

I saw a large number of people heading back into Iran. Communications are largely down in the country, and many people just said that they couldn't cope with not knowing if their families were okay and would rather be with them despite the danger. Wow, that's interesting. So tell us more about what these people who are heading back are heading back into. Well, There's continued heavy bombardment by Israeli and U.S. forces on Tehran and other cities. And another thing we're watching closely is Iran's western border with Iraq. Turkey and Iran are responding to reports that Iranian Kurdish militias have consulted with the United States in recent days about possible attacks against the Iranian regime.

Turkey's saying it's watching closely. Iran's saying it's targeting what it called separatist militias in that region that it said intended to act against security forces there. Okay, what it called separatist militias? as I see. So beyond Iran, there are also still major concerns about the Gulf region being drawn into the conflict? That's right. You know, Iran's saying to the Gulf countries that it strikes against them, there are actually aimed at hitting U.S. military bases and assets there, but the attacks are having this crippling effect on Gulf economies, and they've paralyzed the energy sector.

Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed al-Thani, told Iran's foreign minister yesterday, Qatar prefers diplomacy. But this aggression, he said, cannot go unanswered. Meanwhile, there's also reports of a new attack off the coast of Kuwait, and this would mean an expansion of the area where commercial shipping is also in danger. That is Ruth Shiluk near Turkey's border with Iran. Ruth, thank you so much. Thank you so much. And we have some information about two more U.S. Army Reserve is killed in Sunday's Iranian drone strike, 54-year-old chief warrant officer Robert Marzan of Sacramento, California,

and 45-year-old Major Jeffrey O'Brien of Waki, Ohio. They are among six U.S. service members killed in the attack in Kuwait. In Iran, a panel of clerics is deciding who will replace Ayatoll al-Ali Khamenei, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike at the start of the war. Whoever is chosen will sit atop a complicated governing system. There's an elected president, there's a legislature, there's a lot of security agencies, a regular army, and a whole separate army called the Revolutionary Guard. But if you put that government on a chart, all the lines of power ultimately would run back to that Supreme Leader.

NPR International Affairs correspondent Jackie Northam is with us now to tell us more about this. Jackie, good morning to you. Morning, Michelle. So who are some other frontrunners for Supreme Leader of Iran? Well, there are four main front runners that the 88 member panel of clerics will consider. And the panel is having to meet virtually because the Israelis bomb the building where they were supposed to meet. Anyway, there's quite a mix. There are basically two main routes. take. First, the non-dynastic route, we can call it, with Aliyazza Arafi, and he's a cleric, very prominent in Iran's religious establishment and considered a hardliner. There's also Hassan Ruhani, a moderate and former president of Iran. And then we have the family route where

there is Hassan Khomeini, who's the grandson of the founding father of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini. And he's seen as a relative moderate. Finally, Michelle, there's Moshaba Khomeini. and he is the 56-year-old son of Ayatollah Khomeini, and he's considered the leading contender to become Iran's next supreme leader. So tell us more about him, if you would. Mosheba Khomeini has been described to me as kind of an unknown quantity, someone in the background.

He is considered a hardliner who's closely associated with a violent crackdown on protesters in Iran in 2009. Now, Moshaba has important connections. Of all the candidates, he's the one who is closest to the powerful Islamic revolution, Guard Corps, the IRGC. He's also well-connected in his late father's office, and these are the two most important parts of the regime. If they support him, there's a good chance he'll be Iran's next leader. So if Mushdaba Khomeini is chosen, will that be seen as a signal that the regime wants continuity, even as this war is ongoing? It would. Mouhtaba would be seen as a status quo candidate.

But, you know, analysts I spoke with, say, the current system can't be sustained. Iran is weakened from war and widespread protests, its economy is battered, and it needs to transform if it wants to have legitimacy. The other thing is the next Supreme Leader will not wield as much power as Hameh Nei during his nearly 40 years in power. The Revolutionary Guards have gained enormous power over Iran's economy and its military. Jonathan Panikov, Director of the Atlantic Council's Skokroft Middle East Security Initiative, says a new Supreme Leader will be deferential to the Revolutionary Guards. Here he is. Where we end up in a situation in which it's senior officials from the guards fundamentally

running the country. And we end up in what's closer to a military dictatorship with a fig leaf to a religious supreme leader than we do with the Supreme Leader like Ayatollah Khameen, who's actually calling the shots and has the final word. And yet, you know, when the late Ayatollah Khomeini was chosen as supreme leader, he was considered weak and pliable, but, you know, he proved to be cunning and ruthless and went on to become one of the most powerful leaders in the Middle East. That is, NPR International Affairs correspondent Jackie North. Jackie, thank you. Thank you. As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran expands, China is stepping into the crisis with a high-profile diplomatic move. Beijing is sending

a special envoy to the Middle East to help mediate. We're joined by NPR's China correspondent, Jennifer pack in Beijing for the latest, Jennifer, good morning. Good morning. Could you just start by telling us who this envoy is and what we know about his assignment? Well, China today named the envoy it's sending to the Middle East. His name is Jai Jun, and he's been serving as an envoy to the region since 2019. But the Foreign Ministry didn't provide more details or say specifically which countries he would be visiting.

Now, there are two reasons why China is stepping in. The first is strategic. China has economic interests in the Middle East. It gets part of its oil supply from the region. Here's a Chinese politics expert at the National University of Singapore, Jaiing Chong. They have this longstanding relationship with the Iranian government. They've invested a lot in Iran. Part of that arrangement has to do with getting oil and gas out of Iran.

And that's not just from Iran. China also buys oil and gas from the rest of the region, he says. And now the conflict is affecting that supply. The second reason is a diplomatic one. This is a real opportunity for China to portray itself as a, quote, force for peace. It has been urging all sides to stop military operations and return to the negotiating table. Do we have any sense of whether that cooperation with Iran extends to military assistance? So far, no. And it does raise the question of whether other countries would think it's worthwhile to enter into a strategic partnership with China,

given that it doesn't extend to security protection. Analyst Chong offers a different interpretation. China is trying to feel its way around being a great power again, a great power in the contemporary period. The big question, he says, is what this envoy can realistically achieve. Given that China is not impartial in this, China is way more closely aligned with Iran than with either the U.S. or Israel. And Jennifer, how is Beijing making sense of the events of the last few days? Well, Beijing is clearly uncomfortable with what's happening in the Middle East and elsewhere, for example, Venezuela earlier this year. especially since from Beijing's standpoint, the Trump administration has been freely talking about regime change and taking out political leaders unilaterally.

It's a sign for the Chinese that the world is getting more volatile. So at an important political meeting just this morning, Premier Li Qiang talked about external challenges. He says multilateralism and free trade are under severe threat. For China, this uncertainty is coming at a bad time. Its economic growth is at its lowest in decades. And this morning, Li Qiang also set a goal for China's annual growth of 4.5% to 5%. So China is clearly preparing its population for slower growth and more uncertainty ahead. So how is China preparing for this uncertainty?

Well, China says it will continue to invest and modernize its military for deterrence. It has increased its defense budget by 7% compared to last year. Also, China is doubling down on industrial manufacturing and tech innovation. all of this is about self-reliance so that when the U.S. say, imposes export controls on American high-tech products, China might hurt less. That is.

NPRS. Jennifer Peck in Beijing. Jennifer, thank you. Thank you. And that's up first for Thursday, March 5th. I'm Michelle Martin. And I'm Steve Inskeep. Today's up-first was edited by Hannah Block, Miguel Macias, James Heider,

Tina Cria, Mohamed El Bardisi, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziet Budge and Ben Abrams. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Highness, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Hi there, Carly. Our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens.

Join us tomorrow. Support for NPR and the following message come from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, investing in creative thinkers and problem solvers who help people, communities, and the planet flourish. More information is available at Hewlett.org.