Up First from NPR - NH Republican Primary Showdown; The State of Global Democracy in 2024

Episode Date: January 20, 2024

Former President Donald Trump gets an endorsement from Senator Tim Scott just ahead of the NH primary. Also, several dozen countries hold elections this year - we take a step-back to consider what's at stake for global democracy.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Nikki Haley hopes to trounce her former boss in the New Hampshire primary. But last night, Senator Tim Scott endorsed former President Trump. Could that South Carolinian end up on the GOP ticket? I'm Aisha Roscoe. And I'm Scott Simon, and this is Up First from NPR News. Despite two impeachments and multiple charges over his attempts to stay in power after losing the 2020 election, Trump continues to shore up his support among the GOP. And the world is watching.

The dysfunction of American democracy has really given anti-democratic forces a life fight. How so? Dozens of countries hold elections this year with billions of voters. Our correspondents explain what's at stake in some key regions as we take a step back to consider the state of global democracy. Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your weekend. Now Our Change will honor 100 years of the Royal Canadian Air Force

and their dedicated service to communities at home and abroad. From the skies to Our Change, this $2 commemorative circulation coin marks their storied past and promising future. Find the limited edition Royal Canadian Air Force $2 coin today. At a rally last night in Concord, New Hampshire. He's a senator from South Carolina. He's a fantastic man, Tim Scott. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, a former Republican candidate for president, officially endorsed former President Donald Trump.

Trump wants to finish off his competitors in New Hampshire, namely Nikki Haley. He's leading in the polls, but she is closing in on him there. Last night's endorsement of Trump is already fueling speculation that Tim Scott might become Trump's choice for running mate. NPR's Franco Ordonez is covering the campaign and joins us now. Good morning. Good morning, Ayesha. So, Franco,

break this down for us. Like, why is Tim Scott's endorsement so significant? I mean, really, for so many reasons. You mentioned one, him potentially being a running mate. You know, he dropped his own bid for the White House in November. At the time, he said he had no plans to endorse a candidate. Trump was courting him. Haley was courting him. So was DeSantis, a source told me. I mean, Scott is popular. He's influential. And he's the only black Republican in the Senate. You see, we need a president who doesn't see black or white. We see a president who sees Americans as one American family. We need Trump. Aisha, this is really a big blow to Nikki Haley. Nikki Haley appointed Scott to the Senate when she was governor of South Carolina. And Scott also enjoys more support in their shared homestay, which is an important one in the primary calendar. It's really a big win for Trump.

And I'll just note one more little thing that Elise Stefanik of New York, she was also in New Hampshire yesterday kind of warming up the crowd. She's also in the running as potential running mate for Trump. You know, speaking of Haley, she's still behind Trump in the polls, but she has her best prospects for a win in New Hampshire. Why is that? Well, because for one, you know, Republicans in New Hampshire are generally more moderate. They're more traditional, fiscally conscious. But perhaps a bigger reason is those independent voters who here can pick what party's primary they want to vote in. And they're expected to vote in the Republican primary

because that's where the action is. Plus, it is the first in the nation primary, and they really don't kid around about that in New Hampshire. Here's how the state's former attorney general, Tom Rath, explained it to me. We understand that our vote in this primary is probably our most significant political possession, and we take our role very, very seriously. Haley's trailing Trump by over 10 points in the polls. But again, it's hard to predict how many of those independent voters are going to show up on Tuesday. You've only really talked about Trump and Haley, but I mean, isn't there somebody else in the race like DeSantis? Like he did beat Haley in Iowa. He did beat Haley in Iowa, but he's just not much of a factor in New Hampshire.

I mean, DeSantis spent so much time in Iowa, so much energy, so much money, but he didn't really pay much attention to the Granite State. I mean, he's not even in the state this weekend. He's making appearances across South Carolina. Therefore, he's polling in the single digits in the Granite State, while Haley has invested so much in New Hampshire and is polling around 30%. I mean, this is really a two-person race now. She's been turning up the heat on Trump,

something that she had been reluctant to do for much of the campaign, right? Yeah, I mean, her campaign is on the line here, and she really has to kind of turn up the heat. I wouldn't say that it's been red hot, though, but her attacks have been stronger, you know, saying Trump's throwing a temper tantrum, that he's lying about her supporters. I mean, Ayesha, this is really the best chance for Haley to stop his campaign from basically running away with the nomination. The next two states are South Carolina and Nevada, where there are more Trump-style voters. So if someone's going to rise from Trump's shadow, it really has to be here. That's NPR's Franco Ordonez.

Thank you so much for joining us, Franco. Thanks, Ayesha. India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and of course, the United States. A huge swath of the globe will vote in national elections this year. What might these elections say about the strength or the frailty of democracy? We're joined by NPR correspondents from the world, Ada Peralta in Mexico City, Dia Hadid in Mumbai, India, and Frank Langfitt, NPR's global democracy correspondent, who's based in Washington, D.C. Thank you all very much for being with us.

Thank you, Scott. Great to be here, Scott. Frank, let's begin with a sense of the significance of this year and some of what you'll be alert for. Yeah, I think this year, as you're pointing out, it's the biggest one for elections that anybody can remember. It's at least 70 countries, billions of voters eligible. And it's not just the numbers, Scott, it's the context. This is coming when democracy has been in decline for the last 17 years. That's according to Freedom House, a think tank here in D.C. You're seeing more and more disinformation campaigns, the specter of AI.

And I think what you hear is people are very nervous about the integrity of elections. And there's also a concern that parties may win democratically and then turn around and actually try to undermine the democratic systems and the checks and balances in those countries. So I think people are going to be watching this year incredibly closely. Let me turn to you now, Dia and Eder. How do you see these issues in the part of the world you cover? Well, look, I feel like the conversation in my patch has moved on from the mechanics of elections. First, because the bad guys have become super sophisticated. They've gotten really good at playing the democracy game, at rigging elections through legal maneuvers or with lots of money. And the U.S. and the international community have often gone along, said those elections were good enough. But people have also grown disillusioned

with the democratic process because it hasn't fixed some of the most pressing problems in Latin America. And this is among the most unequal regions in the world. And so many countries in Latin America are facing awful insecurity. And I think that's when leaders like the president of El Salvador emerge. Nayib Bukele doesn't pretend to be a Democrat. He's running for re-election in February, despite the fact that the constitution clearly doesn't allow re-election. But the latest polls show that Salvadorans don't care. You know, why is that? Because he solved, during his first term, he solved one of the biggest problems they had. He threw nearly 70,000 people in jail with either

no legal process or an inadequate legal process. And that meant that Salvadorans were no longer being extorted and they're no longer being killed by gangs on the streets. So, you know, there's a saying that I keep hearing here in Central America, and they say, we can't eat democracy. And so those democratic norms that the West obsesses over doesn't mean much in people's regular lives. Dear Hadid, what about South Asia? It's interesting what Ada is saying. This is the world's most populous region, and it's largely on paper democratic. It has institutions bequeathed to it by the British who once colonized this region. And here we've got three giants voting or having voted this year, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. And what we see is each country is upholding elections,

but there's an erosion of democratic standards. And it kind of echoes what Ada is saying in the sense of the mechanics might be all right, but what happens in between those elections is key. In fact, though, if I jump to Bangladesh first, where there are elections in early January, there was a wide ranging crackdown on the opposition before people went out to vote. And in fact, citizens were treated to the specter of the ruling party competing against itself and obviously winning. In Pakistan, where critics say the military hold ultimate power,

there's also been a crackdown on what appears to be the most popular party, which is led by the former Prime Minister Imran Khan. But elections are still happening, you see. I have to ask, is the U.S., given the events of January 6, 2021, and subsequent investigations, still considered to be a kind of living example of democracy across the globe? Scott, no, I don't think so. People follow American politics extremely closely around the world, but especially in Europe, where I last reported. And with the majority of

Republicans supporting Trump, a man who lied about winning the election, tried to overturn those legitimate results, that would be sort of the definition of being anti-democratic. And so I think people are watching this election very, very closely to see what happens. You know, will there be another attempt to try to overturn the results? Or if Americans in the end vote for Donald Trump and he wins, this is someone who's been pretty clear that there are a number of democratic norms that he wants no part of. Ader? I think it becomes even more complicated. I mean, the dysfunction of American democracy has really given anti-democratic forces a lifeline. But it's what's also happened after January 6th.

And I'll take you back to El Salvador because El Salvador, it's a huge deal here in Latin America. People look at it as a model. And President Bukele in El Salvador consistently says, look at the U.S. And look how human rights groups and the United States criticize me for going after the opposition. But right now, the United States is prosecuting a former president and the leading presidential candidate for the Republican Party and Donald Trump. And so President Bukele en El Salvador uses this to claim hypocrisy. And it seems to carry weight with the population. Frank Langford, there's been a rise in populism in the United States and also in much of Europe.

How does that figure into the elections this year? I think it's very important election really to watch, which Americans won't usually focus on is European Union parliamentary elections, 27 members of the EU. And I think the group to watch there is there's this group called the Identity and Democracy Group. It's a collection of right wing populist parties. Right now, it's the sixth largest in the parliament. It's on track to become the third largest party. Some of those parties are very friendly to Vladimir Putin. And if they win big, there's a concern that they will try to push for some kind of settlement, undermine support for Ukraine. And I think the concern there is Putin could come out

in some ways doing relatively well after this bungled invasion. And many people look at the Ukraine story as a democracy story. It's a sovereign nation, a democracy that was attacked by an authoritarian country. And what a lot of people in Europe absolutely don't want to see is that kind of behavior rewarded. Peter, what about populism in Central America, South America? So look, here in Mexico, we're having a presidential election, and a lot of pro-democracy advocates are really worried. The president here, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, is a populist. He can't run for re-election, but he's handpicked a successor. And he is about to give another go

right before leaving office to what he calls reforms to the electoral commission. Essentially, he wants to gut the commission. And in his term, Lopez Obrador has said, forget these institutions. The way I'm going to help the people is to take the money we spend on fair elections or on transparency and give it to the people. And his administration has actually cut checks to everyone, single mothers, students, the elderly. And right now, his handpicked successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, is leading in the polls by a huge margin.

Dio, let me turn to you. India, the world's largest democracy, the most populous nation in the polls by a huge margin. D.L., let me turn to you. India, the world's largest democracy, the most populous nation in the world. I feel the need for a separate question. What is the state of democracy and that part of democracy that relies on freedom of expression under Prime Minister Modi?

Well, Scott, I've been speaking to many critics of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his style of rule, and yet they're unequivocal in that India remains a democracy, and a democracy where parties contest and run for elections and really challenge each other at the ballot box. That remains strong. The issue is prominent critics aren't sure how much of India's legacy as a secular state with equal rights for all can survive under a third term of Narendra Modi. And that third term is almost inevitable. a yearning among many in India to see something of their faith and identity and religious practice reflected in the most senior person in the country. But I'm also meeting people who are on

the fringes of Hindu nationalism, who are unhappy with Narendra Modi and unhappy with the BJP because they think it's too soft. They want a harder line against India's minorities, Muslims, Christians, Jews, and others. They want to see Hindu rights being elevated in a more robust and aggressive way. And the critics that I'm speaking to just aren't sure how much of India's sense of equality, fairness before the law, its institutions itself are going to survive

another assault. Let me ask you all, what about bright spots? There's a glimmer of hope for democracy in my patch. Guatemala just inaugurated a pro-democratic reformist president. And just before elections last summer, all I heard was desolation. Everyone thought the game was rigged. Everyone thought the same old people would win. And instead, democracy won. I know people are very despondent about democracy around the world these days and with good reason, but there are very bright spots. And one of the most obvious one is Taiwan. We just saw recently an election in which the Taiwanese defied the threats of mainland China and gave the Democratic Progressive Party a third straight term in the presidency. And of

course, Taiwan is probably the next big battleground over democracy and sovereignty. I'm not a cynic. And this goes beyond covering South Asia. I covered the Arab Spring and I saw people demand the right to decide their own leaders with their bodies. People who are denied democracy and then given it really don't take it for granted. It's often the reverse. I'm always struck by the apathy of people who come from democratic countries who don't quite understand what other people are fighting for. We want to thank all of you, Eder Peralta in Mexico City, Dia Hadid in Mumbai, Frank Langfitt,

NPR's Global Democracy Correspondent. Thanks so much. Thanks for doing it, Scott. Thank you, Scott. You're welcome, Scott. And that's up first for Saturday, January 20th, 2024. I'm Ayesha Roscoe. And I'm Scott Simon.

Fernando Naro and Martin Patience produce today's podcast. Our editors include Megan Pratt, Robert Little, Vincent Nee, Shannon Rhodes, and Melissa Gray. Our director is Danny Hensel. Our technical director is Carly Strange, with technical assistance from Stacey Abbott, Becky Brown, Zach Coleman, and Ted Meebane. Evie Stone is our senior supervising editor. Sarah Lucy Oliver is our executive producer. And Jim Kane is our deputy managing editor. Tomorrow on Up First, medical errors can lead to lawsuits and settlements, but rarely do they lead to apologies.

Now, more patients, families, and even doctors are calling for a new approach that acknowledges the harms that come from failing to address medical mistakes. Of course, for more news, interviews, books, entertainment, music, you can tune in to Weekend Edition this very weekend. Find your NPR station at stations.npr.org. Ha! Maybe you already know where to find it. You should.

And if you do, good job. Well done. Go listen. And you can stay warm. You can listen and be warm in your house. It's cold out there. That's my whole thing. Yeah.

Stay inside. They're like whole thing. Yeah. Stay inside. They're like, whatever. The great indoors beckon, and our stations are there to help. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.

Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.

Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.