Up First from NPR - Russia-Ukraine 1000 Days, Hong Kong Activists Sentenced, Trump And Your Money

Episode Date: November 19, 2024

1,000 days of war have devastated Ukraine and transformed life in Russia, as President Vladimir Putin expands nuclear threats amid the escalating conflict. In Hong Kong, pro-democracy activists are sentenced under a sweeping national security law. And, President-elect Donald Trump promises sweeping tax cuts, but experts warn his plans could deepen the national debt.Want more comprehensive analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today's episode of Up First was edited by Kevin Drew, Ryland Barton, Rafael Nam, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle.It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas and Milton Guevara.We get engineering support from Arthur Laurent. And our technical director is Zac Coleman.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

It's been a thousand days since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war has devastated Ukraine and transformed life in Russia. How much further could it escalate as Moscow warns that U.S. missiles could trigger a nuclear response? I'm Leila Fadl, that's Michelle Martin and this is Up First from NPR News. In Hong Kong, dozens of pro-democracy activists are sentenced to prison under a national security law that critics say has crushed dissent. Why was a political poll considered a threat and what message is China sending with these

verdicts? And President-elect Trump is laying out big promises for tax cuts. We will have no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security benefits. Sounds appealing, but could his plan blow a hole in the federal budget? Stay with us, we'll give you the news you need to start your day. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend or receive money internationally, and always get the real real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the Wyse app today or visit wyse.com, T's and C's apply.

Support for this podcast and the following message come from Autograph Collection Hotels, with over 300 independent hotels around the world, each exactly like nothing else. Autograph Collection is part of the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio of hotel brands. Find the unforgettable at autographcollection.com. On NPR's Wild Card podcast, comedian Seth Meyers talks frankly about his early career. I was a far more temperamental when I was younger

and things ran very hot at Essendale. And there were definitely times where my instincts were to say something that would have been relationship ending to people. I'm Rachel Martin. Seth Meyers is on Wild Card, the show where cards control the conversation. Today marks a thousand days since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbor, Ukraine. The war forced the displacement of millions of Ukrainians from their homes and led to the death and maiming of hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers.

But the war has, of course, also brought immense changes to life in Russia. And Paris Moscow correspondent Charles Mains is going to talk about this. He's reported out of Russia since the beginning of the conflict. Hello, Charles. Good morning. So Charles, I take it the question isn't whether Russia has changed as a result of the war, but how much? Yeah, you know, the truth is this war has transformed Russia completely. Everything

from its geopolitics, you know, where once Russia sought acceptance, albeit often angrily, from the West. Now it has military alliances with rogue states like Iran and North Korea. And also look at its domestic political culture. You know, Russia under President Vladimir from the West. Now it has military alliances with rogue states like Iran and North Korea. Also look at its domestic political culture. You know, Russia under President Vladimir Putin was never a liberal democracy, but the repressions and near total crushing of dissent since the war started make the earlier Putin era seem comparatively free. And then there's the economy. Today Russia is the world's most sanctioned state, but those are largely Western imposed sanctions. Big name Western companies like McDonald's, Apple, Starbucks have all left Russia. But the country is pivoted to new markets and new trade partners, often in China.

So the result is that what you eat, what you buy, what you say, read and watch, it's all changed. That sounds kind of disorienting. Do we have a sense of what Russians think about this? Is there any way to know if they really support the war and how they feel about all the changes it's brought? Well, the government claims the Russian society is united behind the war effort. Some state polls will show the same, although keep in mind the repressions that we mentioned. And through reporting, I've certainly met people who clearly buy into Kremlin propaganda that

this is a war against fascism, that Ukraine is run by neo-Nazis, and they see it as a continuation of the Soviet Union's fight against Nazi Germany in World War II. For example, here's tape from a conversation I had with a man named Andrei Nikolayevich, who I met on Red Square last year. We have already had once this victory in 1945. We expect peace, but peace should be with victory over the Nazis, new Nazis, who occupied all the country of Ukraine. Do you worry about Russian forces killing other people, though, like innocent civilians,

too? No, it's all fake, because we don't kill human beings that are peaceful. We kill only the soldiers. You know, Michelle, that said, let's remember tens of thousands of Russians fled the country in opposition to the war. Thousands more have gone to jail for civil disobedience. And in conversations I've had just day to day, people who aren't government critics or politically active tell me they just wish the whole thing would end. And of course, now President-elect Trump will be returning to the White House.

He's promised to negotiate with Putin. He says he will quickly end the war. How is this seen from Russia? Are there prospects of peace seen from Russia? Well, I think it's fair to say there's a surge in confidence in Moscow with Trump's suggestions he could end military support to Ukraine. President Putin this morning formally approved changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, expanding the list of threats that might warrant a nuclear response from Moscow. It was a clear message to President Biden's decision this week to allow Ukraine

to use American long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia. And I think one that raises the question of whether Putin has any intention of compromise going forward. That is NPR's Charles Maynes in Moscow. Charles, thank you. Thank you. Hong Kong's government, which is controlled by China, sentenced 45 pro-democracy activists to prison sentences of up to 10 years each. Yeah, they were found guilty of subversion of state power this year in a landmark court case that governments, including the US, have condemned for criminalizing free speech and

political activity. The activists were sentenced for their roles in an unofficial primary poll held in 2020. And parents Emily Fang covered that primary and the months of anti-government protests from Hong Kong leading up to the arrests of these activists. And she's with us now to tell us more about it. Good morning, Emily. Good morning. Would you first tell us about this primary poll? Why is it considered subversion? Well, they're essentially being sentenced today for subversion, for trying to win an election. They wanted to pick the most popular

candidates and so they held this poll that you just mentioned and 600,000 plus people took part. That poll was supposed to pick the most competitive candidates, and it was a watershed moment. It was a moment when this pro-democracy coalition really felt like they had a chance of actually winning a legislative seat in Hong Kong, and they were well-organized, and they enjoyed popular backing. But that's what is being called subversion now

under Beijing's national security law, because this coalition could actually have won a legislative seat. Ultimately, we know what happened. Half a year later, nearly everyone who helped organize that poll or was a candidate in that poll has been arrested. So what does this tell us about the political direction of Hong Kong? It tells us that what was once this lively, often rambunctious civil society in Hong Kong is now entirely leaderless because almost all of the most influential activists there are now facing years more behind bars.

Among those sentenced today was Joshua Wong. You may recognize him when he was just a teenager. He was leading big protests demanding direct democratic elections back in 2014 and what's now called the Umbrella Movement. Well, he's facing multiple charges. But today he just got another four year, eight month sentence and another person who got sentenced today is Benny Tai. He's a former professor who really conceptualized the Umbrella Movement, a veteran protest organizer. And he got the longest sentence today for organizing that 2020 primary.

He is facing a decade behind bars. So today's sentencing really shows how worn down these activists are as well because among the 45 sentenced, about three fourths of them pled guilty because they wanted to reduce their sentence times. They've been waiting almost four years behind bars already. Wow. Has the Chinese government responded in some way to this? They've stayed quiet today, but their line has been unequivocal from the start. In Beijing's view, the people arrested under this national security law are troublemakers. They're criminals who incited violent protests that diminished Hong Kong as a global financial

center. And so they've applauded the security law that snabbed these 45 people and said it is a much needed measure to return Hong Kong to order. So given all you've told us about just the level of repression there, is there any way to know about how people in Hong Kong are feeling about this? And might there be any more protests? There will likely not be protests. We've seen what happened to people who have continued to protest. They are mostly now in prison. So likely no public defiance, but perhaps some private defiance.

Winif Ho, who rose to prominence as a journalist and then became an activist, she was one of the people sentenced today with a seven-year prison sentence. Supporters of hers released a statement on Facebook in which she actually expressed pride at what she had achieved. And she said, for these values,

it was worth to dare to act. And that's why she, quote, dared to suffer. That is, and here's Emily Fang. Emily, thank you. Thank you. On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to put more money back in Americans' pockets by cutting their taxes. Here he is at an event in Raleigh, North Carolina the day before the election. My plan will massively cut taxes for workers and small businesses.

And we will have no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on social security benefits. So what will a second Trump presidency mean for your taxes? It might mean a lower tax bill, but it could have drastic consequences for the national budget. Here to explain all this is Laurel Wamsley, who covers personal finance for NPR. Good morning, Laurel. Hey, Michelle. Okay, so Trump is making a lot of promises about taxes. What's the most important thing for people to know? Well, the biggest thing is that Trump is very likely to extend the big tax changes that he

pushed through in 2017. That was a pretty sweeping law, and it did lower most people's tax bills. For households that say make 60 to $100,000 a year, extending these tax cuts means that those folks get to keep about a thousand extra dollars a year. But wealthy people saw the most benefit for those who make more than a million dollars. It means reducing their taxes on average by about $70,000. And there are also big corporate tax cuts as part of that package too

But all these cuts are expensive extending the 2017 law Could increase the national debt by more than four trillion dollars over the next ten years and that really matters less tax revenue coming in means cutting government programs, for example Let's talk about some of Trump's other proposals. For instance, no taxes on tips. What sort of impact would that have? Yeah, this is a tax cut that made big headlines, but it only impacts a small part of the labor market,

only about 2.5% of all jobs. And many tipped workers, over a third of them, earn so little that they already don't pay federal income tax. So now there aren't too many details on how exactly all of this would work, but eliminating tax on tips would probably lead to some kind of squirrely effects. For example, say I hire a guy to trim the tree at my house, and that's something I usually pay him $500 to do. Now he might tell me that it costs $300 to trim my tree, but that he expects a $200 tip, knowing that he won't be taxed on that portion of the

income. We could see tipping proliferate into places we haven't seen it before. And employers could also attempt to reclassify employees as tipped workers and drop their pay to the tipped minimum wage. And for that, the federal minimum wage right now is $2.13 an hour. And like the 2017 tax cuts, this would blow another hole in the federal budget. This one would cost us about a hundred billion dollars over ten years. Trump also says he would stop taxing Social Security benefits. What sort of effects would we see from that? Well, for most current retirees, it wouldn't have any effect. Only about 40% of people who get Social Security pay federal income

tax on it. But again, the effects of this change would be huge and it would make things worse for those of us who are still years away from drawing Social Security. That's because a big chunk of those taxes on Social Security go straight into funding the Social Security Trust Fund. So eliminating these taxes means reducing the money that's available for Social Security.

And that's a program that's already at risk. If no one pays taxes on their Social Security benefits, that fund is going to run out sooner, perhaps two years earlier than it's already on track to do. That is NPR's Laura Wormsley. Laura, thank you. You're welcome. And that's up first for Tuesday, November 19th.

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