Up First from NPR - The Sunday Story: Let The Veepstakes Begin

Episode Date: January 28, 2024

Primary season has just begun but for most Republicans, it's a wrap. The question now is not who the party will pick as its presidential candidate but who former President Donald Trump will choose as his running mate. Today on The Sunday Story, we turn to our colleagues at NPR's Politics Podcast as they consider the vice presidency and who might be on Trump's short list.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

So it's only January. We've still got a lot of time before Americans go to the polls in November to decide who will be our next president. But after just two primaries, Republicans seem to have made their choice. Former President Donald Trump. And that's because he's winning pretty decisively. And there just doesn't seem to be a path for any other candidate, i.e. Nikki Haley, who's only one left in the race. And, you know, anything can happen. I always have to say that. But it looks like former President Donald Trump will most likely get the GOP nomination.

Now attention is turning to the next big mystery of this campaign season. And that's who Trump is going to pick next big mystery of this campaign season, and that's who Trump is going to pick to be his vice president. I'm Ayesha Roscoe, and this is The Sunday Story. Today, we're turning to our colleagues on NPR's Politics Podcast for a little insight. Here we go. Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign. And I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. And today I'd like to think of the podcast as the equivalent of if you were sitting around and getting a beer with me, Mara, and Sarah.

Because today we're talking veepstakes. The presidential primary is not over, but for most Republicans, it is. Donald Trump is the likely nominee, and he's already indicated that he knows who his running mate will be. We, of course, have no idea who it's going to be here on the NPR Politics Podcast, but we don't even know if he knows who it's going to be. But we do know a lot about what goes in to this guessing game. So pour yourself a coffee, take a sip of a beer or your favorite non-alcoholic cocktail, and let's get into it. So Mara, what are generally the calculations that a nominee puts into deciding who their running mate should be? Well, historically, the running mate was seen as a person who could balance the ticket, bring a constituency or a state to a ticket. Sometimes

candidates looked at it in a completely opposite way. Remember, Bill Clinton picked Al Gore, another young, centrist Democrat from the middle of the country, Arkansas and Tennessee. He wanted to reinforce his brand as a kind of new generation, new Democrat politician. But most of the time, candidates pick a VP to either make up for some deficiency that they have or to reach a constituency that they don't feel confident in getting. Sarah, in 2016, Donald Trump picked Indiana Governor Mike Pence. And at the time, it was seen as making up for the deficiency that he might have with the evangelical base or with people that were concerned about his socially conservative credentials. I don't think that that part of the base has those concerns about Donald Trump anymore.

He doesn't have to worry about base support. Iowa exit polls would tell you that he does not have to worry about that. So in a 2024 general election, what is Trump looking for? Well, you know, like President Biden, Trump is facing concerns about his age. They're both right around 80 years old. And so whoever their VPs are, we know who President Biden's is, but whoever Trump's pick is, could very likely, if Trump is elected, have to step in in some capacity. So that's on people's minds. So he might want someone younger. Even a lot of Republican voters express concerns about

his temperament. They say they kind of like it, but they also are concerned about it sometimes. So he may be under pressure to pick someone with a track record that suggests more stability or moderation. But that, of course, is assuming he would bend to that pressure, which I would not assume. To remedy someone's deficiencies, you have to convince them that they have those deficiencies. So I'm sure those conversations with political advisors are interesting. He is, of course, an older white male. Now, that's not something Republicans are as inclined to be worried about. But he does like to claim that his policies are good for women, good for people of color, and picking a candidate based on those criteria might insulate him from some of the criticism around those issues and also, you know, at least help him make the argument

to general election voters that he cares about women or people of color. You know, it's interesting. Sarah just said that in Iowa, the exit polls showed that he has no problems with his base or evangelicals. But the New Hampshire exit polls showed that he does have problems with independents and moderates. And he did very poorly among those. He did great among regular Republicans.

So the question I have is, you know, Donald Trump often acts as if he believes in the political version of the cable news business model, which means you don't have to have a large audience or even an expanding audience. You just have to get the people that are your audience to watch you 24-7. In other words, he always seemed to value intensity and devotion among his base trying to get more voters. And if that's what he believes, that it's all about getting a really enthusiastic group of supporters, then maybe he would go for somebody that is just as MAGA as him. But to your point, Mara, about New Hampshire, I agree that, you know, he won New Hampshire, which really set the tone that he's on the march to the nomination. But there was a lot in New Hampshire that suggested big red flags for a general electorate. And the question I also have with Trump is that, you know, traditionally you win the

nomination and you appeal to a broader part of the electorate. He doesn't seem like a candidate that is particularly well positioned to do that. No, not even interested. And is he even interested in picking a vice president that might have some appeal? I think specifically with like suburban women or people that the point that Nikki Haley has made in the primary race that it's just chaos. And that was the thing we heard a lot about Trump in 2020 for people had turned on. They were tired of the chaos, a stabilizing force potentially on the ticket. But whether you can sell that to voters is a big question mark. Right. And also, we do know that over time, the vice president, I think, has mattered less and less. It's hard for me to think of a vice president recently who actually brought a state. And also, Trump is such

a dominating character. And he is the definition now of the Republican Party, that I can't imagine that his vice president would make a huge amount of difference. On this question of appealing to moderates, what I keep thinking about is this conversation I had with kind of a low level Trump advisor during the 2016 campaign cycle, who said, you know, most candidates appeal to the middle and then sort of bring in the fringes. Trump appealed to the fringes and brought in the middle. And so, you know, I think the question is, is he willing to try to appeal to the middle with his vice presidential pick? Mara, one of the things I think is going to be a bind for Trump if he does go in that direction is that he still maintains, and as recently as his victory speech

in New Hampshire earlier this week, that the election was stolen. He falsely claimed that he won millions more votes. He still campaigns as if he were the legitimately elected president of the United States. He was not. But in order to appeal to that middle, that people who are tired of the chaos, people who are tired of that part of Trumpism, you'd almost have to pick a vice president who could go out there and say Joe Biden was the duly elected president of the United States in 2020. And I don't see a world in which Donald Trump wants to campaign with somebody who would say that. No, I don't think so. And you also have to think about that narrows the universe. Nikki Haley has said that she accepts that Joe Biden was legitimately elected. But I think the

way that a lot of Republicans are navigating this is to sort of, yes, sort of check the box and say, yes, I accept the results of the 2020 election, but still to sort of cast doubt on the system or the process or to say, you know, something I hear from both politicians and a lot of voters is this idea that, well, something was off and this sort of vague idea that something was off, even though review after review, we cannot say enough, has confirmed, including reviews by Republican election officials, that the results were valid and there was no significant anomaly in the voting. But I think this idea that just there must be something going wrong here somewhere is

this vague idea that Republican voters have. And I think that politicians can get away with, Republican politicians can get away with saying that to sort of speak to that gut feeling that a lot of voters have without outright denying the results of the election. All right, let's take a quick break. And when we get back, we'll talk about possible names in the game stakes. Now Our Change will honor 100 years of the Royal Canadian Air Force and their dedicated service to communities at home and abroad. From the skies to our change, this $2 commemorative circulation coin marks their storied past and promising future. Find the limited edition Royal Canadian Air Force $2 coin today. And we're back.

And Sarah, let's talk about some of the names that could likely be on a Trump running mate list. I think one of the places that nominees tend to look to, at least historically, is their field of rivals from the primary campaign. So who among there might stand out on this list? Well, I would certainly look at the gentleman on the stage with Trump on primary night in New Hampshire. We saw two of his former rivals, Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott standing there with him. They've endorsed him, as has Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was not there that night. And they certainly seem to want the job, especially if you listen to Tim Scott and the way he interacted with Trump. You must really hate her. No, it's a shame.

It's a shame. Uh-oh. I just love you. No, that's why he's a great politician. Tim Scott, of course, was appointed initially before he was elected by Nikki Haley when there was a vacancy in the Senate. It sure sounds like he wants the job based on the way he and Trump were talking about Haley when there was a vacancy in the Senate. It sure sounds like he wants the job, based on the way he and Trump were talking about Haley. Yeah, that was kind of a little cringe because I feel like he was trying a little too hard in

that moment. If there was any doubt Tim Scott is auditioning for vice president, it seemed pretty clear the night of New Hampshire. But Mara, that does raise the question of Nikki Haley because, look, she seems to fit the bill of everything we just discussed. She appeals more to independence, to women and to the center. She doesn't deny that Joe Biden was lawfully elected the president of the United States. And she represents a wing of the party that has soured on Donald Trump. But these two people don't seem to like each other very much. They certainly don't seem to like each other now.

However, if you're going to be on the ticket with Donald Trump and he wins, that is about one of the fastest routes to possibly becoming president because he cannot serve a second term. So I think any ambitious politician, especially in the Trump Republican Party, would find a way to grovel or kiss the ring, as Trump sometimes says, bend the knee and get on the ticket. Right now, there seems to be a lot of animus. Trump even accused her of giving a victory speech when she lost. Hmm, who else has done that? But yeah, it seems kind of far-fetched, although on paper and according to all the old historical rules, she would be the perfect vice presidential pick because she does bring him something. She brings him something that he doesn't have now, which is strong support among independents, moderate Republicans.

Sarah, you've been tracking the Haley campaign much more closely. Has she given herself any wiggle room here or has she carved out a place like I think of former Governor Ron DeSantis? Just doesn't seem like he's going to be in any potential vice presidential list for many, many reasons. But has she acknowledged this possibility? Does she talk it up or down in any way? It's not something she talks about. I think she's given herself a little wiggle room in the sense that she's going after both Trump and Biden in the same breath and in pretty much every campaign speech. I mean, her whole pitch right now is that she's a, quote, unquote, better choice than either Trump or Joe Biden, and also that she could beat Joe Biden.

So she's really trying to sell herself to moderate voters in the Republican Party who don't want Trump, and also to appeal to people who may be uneasy about Biden for whatever reason. So yeah, I think she's given herself room in the sense that yes, she's attacked Trump, but she's not just attacking Trump. She's also said that she would ultimately support him if he's the nominee, even if he were convicted of a crime. So she said that. My bigger question, Sue, is if Trump would ever warm back up to her because he's clearly angry, as Mara was just saying. Trump recently said that people who donate to Nikki Haley's campaign would be permanently barred from MAGA world, essentially.

Nikki Haley seems to be leaning into that. Her campaign just tweeted out a picture of a t-shirt that says Bard permanently and says, get yours now. So they're having fun with that. Yeah, it's hard to like, it's always hard to predict anything Trump does. But historically, like the nominee has to kind of like the person that's their running mate. It has to be a bit of a gut check. That was at least part of the rationale why Hillary Clinton tapped Virginia Governor Tim Kaine in 2016. She just said she really liked him on a personal level.

I think that was true between Barack Obama and Joe Biden back in 2008. And who knows, right? Who knows how he feels about her if he could change his mind. Although he also, Mara, tends to make decisions if he thinks it's politically beneficial for him. Yes. And you could make the argument that putting Nikki Haley on the ticket is politically beneficial for him. She's a woman.

She's a person of color. She brings these disaffected Republicans perhaps back into the fold. There are a lot of reasons to pick her. She would have to show him, of course. He does have these auditions. Remember, Mitt Romney had a particularly humiliating one. She'd have to show him that she was ready to, as he puts it, bend the knee and maybe, you know, go back on a lot of the criticism she made of him and be a good deferential vice president. Speaking of deferential,

I also think, you know, often vice presidents come from Capitol Hill. And I would say that if you were putting names out there, a couple of names come to mind specifically. Obviously, we referenced Tim Scott in the Senate, but in the House, Nancy Mace, a Republican from South Carolina, is someone whose name gets thrown out there. And also Elise Stefanik, a Republican from New York, a member of House party leadership, and someone who has very methodically and very diligently worked to establish herself as one of Trump's strongest allies on Capitol Hill. I'm proud to be the first member of Congress to have endorsed President Trump for reelection, the first. And I would be honored to serve in a Trump administration in any capacity. Yeah, Nikki Haley is not the only female Republican that Trump has to choose from.

And Stefanik seems to be campaigning for the job pretty openly. Mara, one thing I think is worth thinking about Elise Stefanik in the context of vice president is I do think that Republicans want to put up a strong candidate for two reasons. One, Donald Trump is a one term president if he runs again. So whoever he picks as vice president is going to be seen as a likely 2028 nominee. And that person is going to be going up against potentially a debate. We don't know if there will be debates, but if there is a debate against Vice President Kamala Harris. And there is a real hunger among Republicans to not just campaign against Joe Biden, but to campaign against Kamala Harris as sort of the de facto president. And I think

you can see the argument for putting up a woman, someone who has a bit of an attack dog reputation. I think Trump has called her a killer, which is one of the finest compliments he can pay a politician. And I think the Kamala Harris factor should be noted here. The Kamala Harris factor is huge. One of the things that Republicans have been doing, and I think you can expect to hear them do it a lot more, how about on a daily basis, is that because Joe Biden is 81, because he's called himself a transitional figure, that they will be saying Kamala Harris is the real nominee, the real candidate, because Biden will not serve out his full term and she will become the president. Therefore, she's the real nominee. by the way how Nikki Haley has been threading the needle on this, needing to be pro-Trump enough, but not too pro-Trump, and justifying her support for him by saying she doesn't want

Kamala Harris as the president. A Trump nomination is a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency. I also just think we have to, because this is the veep stakes and we have to leave ourselves wiggle room if it's someone we don't mention at all in this conversation. I think there is room in this political moment and for Trump for sort of a wild card pick in that the driving force of his campaign is that, you know, he needs to shake up Washington, that Washington needs to be broken up, that he is the ultimate outsider, that he's disruption to the norm. And picking a governor, a senator, a House member just feels so typical politics as usual. I personally am doubtful that Trump thinks that he needs a strong running mate. I think that Trump thinks he's a strong nominee. So, you know, the ability to pick someone from maybe the business world or someone from a military background or somebody

we're not really thinking about seems more possible in this political moment than it has to me in past elections, than it has to me in past elections, where it always seemed pretty clear the universe of people that it was going to be. Ramaswamy might fit that category, right? He's younger, he's also a person of color, and his background is from the business world. And he's also clearly looking like he wants to be close to Trump. He has been a totally loyal opponent the whole time. But what's interesting is, first of all, I doubt Trump would pick anybody who was a bigger celebrity than him or had the potential to overshadow him. But remember, he made a lot of picks just the way Sue was describing. Tillerson, Mattis, you know,

he picked people that he thought from the business world, military people, and they all didn't work out so well. Yeah. Well, this is probably the first of many Veepstakes conversations because historically, the nominee announces their vice president right around the nominating conventions in the summertime. But again, with Trump, you never know. It could be any day now. That is it for us today. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. I'm Sarah McCammon.

I cover the presidential campaign. And I'm Mara Liason, national political correspondent. And thanks for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.