Up First from NPR - Trump's Iran War Timeline, Iran Blockade And Peace Talks, GOP And Trump Pope Feud

Episode Date: April 16, 2026

President Trump keeps saying the war with Iran is very close to over, but peace talks have stalled and Iran is threatening to block Red Sea traffic if the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continues.Pakistan is trying to restart peace talks between the U.S and Iran, and Trump posted that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak today for the first time in 34 years.Vice President JD Vance told a Catholic audience that the Pope should be careful when he talks about theology, as Trump's feud with Pope Leo puts some of his most loyal supporters in an awkward spot.Want more analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today’s episode of Up First was edited by Rebekah Metzler, Ruth Sherlock, Dana Farrington, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Lindsay Totty.It was produced by Ziad Buchh and Nia Dumas.Our director is Christopher Thomas.We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis. Our technical director is Carleigh Strange.And our deputy Executive Producer is Kelley Dickens.(0:00) Introduction(01:57) Trump's Iran War Timeline(05:42) Iran Blockade And Peace Talks(09:34) GOP And Trump Pope FeudSee pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

President Trump keeps saying the war with Iran is ending soon. I think it's close to over here. I mean, I view it as very close to over. We've heard some version of that for three weeks now. How much longer will the war that Trump said he won in March last? I mean, Martinez, that's Llan Afadl, and this is up first from NPR News. Pakistan is trying to get the U.S. sent Iran back to the negotiating table before the end of the two-week ceasefire. Since the last round of talks, the U.S. imposed a blockade on Iran. One of the chances of the two sides reaching an agreement. And Vice President Vance, a Catholic

jumped to the president's defense after Pope Leo criticized the war with Iran. I think it's very, very important for the Pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology. The Pope says the world needs to hear a message of peace. Stay with us.

We'll give you the news you need to start your day. President Trump is talking about the war with Iran in the past tense. Fox business anchor Maria Bartromo noted the president's word choice in an interview with Trump that aired Wednesday. Well, you keep saying was, is this war over? I think it's close to over.

I mean, I view it as very close to over. You know what? If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country. And we're not finished. We'll see what happens. I think they want to make a deal very badly. But Trump has been using variations of that line for three weeks now. With the latest, we're joined by NPR senior political correspondent, Tamara Keith.

Hey, Tam. Good morning. Okay, so there were peace talks over the weekend in Pakistan that stalled out, that went nowhere. So how is it that the president says the war is very close to over? I mean, the president has been making bold claims about the war being nearly over since just a couple of weeks after it started. Won't be much longer. It's moving along fast. We're way ahead of schedule. Did you know? You know, I don't like to say this. We've won this. This war has been won. It won't be long. It's going to end.

soon. We had to take a little detour. We won. Okay. They are militarily defeated. So that was Trump on March 17th, March 24th, March 26th, and April 6th. And those attempted declarations of victory are as clear a sign as any that the president wants this war to end. There were reports that the administration had requested an extension of the ceasefire. Press Secretary Caroline Levitt, using very precise language, said Wednesday, that was not true, quote, at this moment. She also said that while there were discussions about resuming in-person talks, nothing is official until the White House announces it, which they haven't yet. I mean, listening to the president, he's constantly moving the goalposts on this war. Can he just keep making promises backing out, making more promises?

Trump does this all the time using bagling. that makes him and his objectives hard to pin down. I called up Tevi Troy, a presidential historian who served in the George W. Bush administration. And he said wars evolve. And U.S. presidents have often found themselves having to explain to the American people why the mission has changed. He says Trump's style gives him wiggle room that others haven't enjoyed, but that only goes so far. He can say different things at different times to highlight what he's trying to accomplish at that time. But at the end of the day, the things that are important are, will gas prices go down? Will the Iranians have access to a nuclear weapon?

Will they change their behavior so that future American presidents don't have to deal with this? And the most politically significant metric there are the gas prices. Right. I mean, no one likes paying $4 a gallon for gas, and that's much higher in parts of the country as well. What does the administration have to say? Yeah, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent came to the White House press briefing. yesterday to talk about tax cuts, but he got a whole lot of questions about the war and ultimately said this about gas prices. I'm optimistic that sometime between June 20th and September 20th, that we can have $3 a gas again. Trump campaigned on $2 a gallon gas and congressional Republicans

could bear the brunt of voter frustration in the midterms this fall. But Senate Republicans voted down a war powers resolution again yesterday, remaining hands off of. of Trump's war. The economic pressure really explains the urgency from the president to get this over with one way or another. NPR's Tamarkey, thank you for the reporting, Tam. You're welcome. U.S. Central Command says over a hundred fighter and surveillance aircraft and more than a dozen warships are enforcing a blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran's also choking off the runway and that means the bulk of the Gulf's oil and gas remains stuck, unable to reach the rest of the world.

Joining us to discuss the latest is NPR's international correspondent, Aya Batrawi, in Dubai. Good morning, Aya. Good morning, Leila. Okay, what's the latest on the blockade and the blockade back? Right. So after the U.S. and Israel launched war on Iran in late February, Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hamuz, and that left hundreds of tankers stranded in Gulf waters. And then Iran took control of that narrow waterway, allowing only a few ships a day to transit in coordination with its armed forces. But now not even those ships are moving beyond the straight because the U.S. is now positioned at its mouth in the Gulf of Alman blocking Iranian cargo ships. I want you to have a listen to audio released by CENTCOM of the Navy enforcing this blockade.

We're not attempt to breach the blockade. The vessels will be boarded for interdiction and seizure, transiting two or from an Iranian port. Turn around and prepare to be boarded. If you do not comply with this blockade, we will use force. The whole of the United States Navy is ready to force compliance. With the straight blockaded, what does this mean for energy markets and consumers right now? The price of oil has shot up around 40% from what it was before the war. And Iranian accounts, these official accounts on X and social media, are trolling the president about this. One of those accounts, Iran's embassy in Thailand, actually wrote Trump 2028, but they wrote it as $20.28 a gallon. So really just referring to how those prices continue to climb.

And throughout the war, there were more than 80 attacks. on energy facilities and refineries across the region from Iran to Israel to Iraq and Gulf Arab states. An analyst tell me this is the biggest energy crisis in history. They point to a loss of some 13 million barrels of oil a day because of the closure of the Strait of Hermuz. Ellen Wald, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center and author of Saudi Inc, a book about the state-owned Aramco oil giant, says there is a severe supply chain crisis now around the world in fertilizers, aluminum, liquefied natural gas, polymers, plastics, Even diesel needed for the construction industry and agriculture, all of this from the hydrocarbon

industry and that energy that's stuck in the Gulf right now. A lot of those products are made in the Middle East. And so even if we don't see shortages of it, particularly, we're going to see prices increasing because of it. And she says although Americans are paying more for gas now and haven't felt it in other ways like other countries have, she says prices across much of the economy will go up the longer that this goes on. Is there any chance this ends soon in some kind of agreement between the U.S. and Iran where they agree to extend the two-week ceasefire that ends Wednesday of next week?

Right. So there's a lot of diplomatic efforts behind the scenes. Pakistan is the key mediator now and its prime ministers on a regional tour to shore up support. And today, Pakistan's army chief who's been leading the talks is in Iran for meetings there. But the White House, which called this operation on Iran Operation Epic Furious, now is calling it Operation Economic Fury, saying they're targeting Iran's assets and its banking. But look, Iran is digging in. There's still no agreement on nuclear enrichment. And, Leila, all of this is happening while Israel's war in Lebanon against the Iran-backed Hezbollah continues, killing dozens of people daily, many of them civilians,

and Israel's Prime Minister just yesterday said he wants to extend Israel's occupation of Lebanese territory eastward to where Israel's already holding Syrian territory. That's NPR's Ayatrawi in Dubai. Thank you so much for your reporting, Ayah. Thanks, Leila. High-profile supporters of President Trump are not backing down in Trump's fight with the Pope. Vice President Vance, a practicing Catholic.

Borders are Tom Homan and House Speaker Mike Johnson have all defended the president. Let's bring in NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenicoe-Montanaro to talk about the politics of all of this. Good morning, Domenico. Hey, good morning. So the administration has been doubling down on Trump's position. What is their defense? Well, I mean, lots of Christians, we know, were offended by that AI-generated image of Trump as Jesus that he posted on social media after his back and forth with Pope Leo. You know, Leo's really taken a stance against the Iran war.

You know, Trump deleted that post after a backlash. He went so far as to claim that it was him as a doctor, though that was widely panned on social media. Vice President J.D. Vance, though, was more than happy to defend Trump. Here he was Tuesday night at a Turning Point USA event. But I think that it's important in the same way that it's important. for the Vice President of United States to be careful when I talk about matters of public policy. I think it's very, very important for the Pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology. You know, Vance was talking about the concept of just wars, noting that force is sometimes necessary,

like he said, in the freeing of Holocaust survivors, but I mean, telling a Pope to be careful on matters of theology. That's really something. Yeah, what has Pope Leo been saying? Well, Leo's traveling in Africa and spoke with reporters on the papal plane. He talked about the importance of going to a mosque during a stop in Algeria and promoting a message of unity and peace. Here he is in a video posted by Reuters. To say that although we have different beliefs, we have different ways of worshiping, we have different ways of living, we can live together in peace.

And so I think that to promote that kind of image is something which the world needs to hear today. So the world needs to hear today, he said. And the reality is Catholic teaching doesn't really align. neatly with either American political party. For Trump, though, of course, everything is binary. You're either with him or against him. Presidents have been meeting with popes for a long time. But if Catholicism doesn't fit with either party, why is the relationship so important? Well, I mean, these are two of the highest profile positions in the world. The American president represents a superpower.

Popes represent a moral power. And American presidents want to be seen as a moral authority. You know, it helps their case in trying to sell their worldview. People like Ronald Reagan, for example, had a strong relationship with John Paul II because they both aligned against communism. And the world's superpower and moral power, both saying communism is not the way to go, certainly held a lot of weight. But the U.S. is slipping when it comes to being a moral authority or perceived as one. A recent NPR Ipsos poll, for example, found that just 39% of Americans said America is a moral authority. That's down from 60% in 2017.

So the Pope speaking out against Trump's actions come at a particularly vulnerable political time for this president. That's quite a drop. But what might the political effect of all this be, then, if any? You know, it's probably not going to mean a wholesale abandonment of this president by religious voters. They largely like him, voted for him. And a lot of conservatives, frankly, have been wary of the direction of the papacy since the elevation of Leo's predecessor, Pope Francis, who really focused on social justice issues. We have seen some dips for Trump with white evangelicals recently. And Latinos who were critical for Trump and winning Catholics in 2024 have really moved heavily away from him since his inauguration for the second term. But that's more likely to do with negative

views of the economy and the war rather than religion. So Trump and the Republican Party really can't afford to slip with anyone else. That's NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thank you so much for your reporting, Domenico. You're welcome. And that's up first for Thursday, April 16th. I'm Leila Faldin. And I'm Ame Martinez. Today's episode of a first was edited by Rebecca Metzler, Ruth Sherlock, Dana Farrington, Mohamed El Bardisi, and Lindsay Tati. It was produced by Ziat Butch and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher

Thomas. We get engineering support from David Greenberg. Our technical director is Carly Strange, and our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens. Join us again tomorrow.