Up First from NPR - Trump's Tariff Response, Economics of Tariffs, SCOTUS Rules on Deportations

Episode Date: April 8, 2025

President Trump faces questions on whether tariffs will remain in place as he welcomes trade negotiations with other countries. Forecasters warn of a heightened risk of recession as tariffs could mean higher prices and slower economic growth. And, the Trump administration has two legal wins in its efforts to crackdown on immigration. Want more comprehensive analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today's episode of Up First was edited by Roberta Rampton, Rafael Nam, Andrea de Leon, Lisa Thomson and Janaya Williams. It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis and our technical director is Carleigh Strange. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Is A even here? I've been here, Leila Fadl. You've been here? I never leave. I'm always awake. You just sit in that studio waiting for the show to start? President Trump calls for patience after markets tumble in response to tariffs. If I didn't do what I did over the last couple of weeks, you wouldn't have anybody want

to negotiate. As countries come to the table, will tariffs stay put? I mean, Martinez, that's Laila Fadl, and this is Up First from NPR News. Forecasters warn of recession as tariffs could mean higher prices and slow down growth. Fed chair agrees. In this situation, you actually have risks for higher unemployment and higher inflation. And two legal wins for the Trump administration in its immigration crackdown. The Supreme Court rules it can continue to use wartime power to deport Venezuelan migrants,

at least for now. And Chief Justice John Roberts temporarily blocks a lower court's order to return a Maryland father. Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day. This message TNCs apply. This message comes from Mint Mobile. Mint Mobile took what's wrong with wireless and made it right.

They offer premium wireless plans for less, and all plans include high-speed data, unlimited talk and text, and nationwide coverage. See for yourself at MintMobile.com slash switch. This message comes from Mint Mobile. If you're tired of spending hundreds on big wireless bills, bogus fees, and free perks, Mint Mobile might be right for you with plans starting from $15 a month. Shop plans today at mintmobile.com slash switch.

Upfront payment of $45 for three-month, five-gigabyte plan required. New customer offer for first three months only. Then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details. Global markets are off to a calmer start today amid days of tariff-induced turmoil. Markets in Europe and Asia made gains,

and U.S. stock futures are looking up. On social media yesterday, President Trump called for people to, quote, be strong, courageous, and patient in the Oval Office. He said this. It's the only chance our country will have to reset the table. Because no other president would be willing to do what I'm doing or to even go through it.

Now, I don't mind going through it because I see a beautiful picture at the end. But he also appears open to negotiations. Here with the latest on where the president's tariff policy is, NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith. Hey, Tam. Good morning. Good morning. So there has been a question all along

of whether the president's steep tariffs are just an elaborate negotiating tactic or an enduring policy shift. What have you learned? For now, at least the answer appears to be yes and. President Trump took questions from the press in the Oval Office yesterday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sitting in the chair next to him and Netanyahu announced he would quickly eliminate all tariffs on American goods and reduce the US trade deficit to zero.

But when asked whether he would reduce the 17% tariff the US is set to apply to Israeli goods, Trump said, maybe not. He said his tough tariffs are getting trading partners to offer big concessions. Virtually every country wants to negotiate. If I didn't do what I did over the last couple of weeks, you wouldn't have anybody wants to negotiate. If I didn't do what I did over the last couple of weeks, you wouldn't have anybody wants to negotiate. We would have gone to these countries who want to talk and they were, well, we don't want to talk. Now they're coming to us. He says a team from Japan is coming to the U.S. to negotiate Vietnam as sending one to. So Trump is certainly signaling that he is open

to negotiating, but he is also digging in. How is he digging in? Well, the president was asked if he might put a pause on his tariffs while negotiations play out, and he said no. Trump and top administration officials continue to make the case that this is about wholly restructuring the US relationship with the global economy, bringing jobs and manufacturing back to the US and making the US wealthy.

The president is urging patience. And then there's China. They slapped a retaliatory tariff on the US after Trump's announcement last week. Trump is saying that if they don't reverse course, he will hike the tax on Chinese imports even higher for a grand total of a 104% tariff. China isn't backing down though and overnight its Commerce Ministry accused the US of blackmail saying in a statement quote China will fight till the end. Now the stock markets are reflecting this anxiety about the impact these tariffs could have on trade

and the US economy in the short term. What are the politics of these tariffs for the president and his party? Well, President Trump believes firmly that he is right about tariffs and all the experts and economists who say prices will go up and the US could be thrown into recession, they're all wrong. But if the dire warnings about prices rising because of tariffs become a reality, a reality that voters feel, or if the economy slows down or falls into recession. There won't be any question about whose economy this is. President Trump has made a historically dramatic

economic policy move here based on a conviction that he has held since the 1980s. If he succeeds, he can claim all the credit, but if he fails, he and his party will get all of the blame. And NPR's Tamara Keith. Thanks, Tam. You're welcome.

We're going to talk through the economics of this trade war now with NPR's chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley. Good morning, Scott. Good morning, Lila. So if all of these tariffs do go into effect, what is that going to mean for businesses and shoppers in the US and around the world? It's likely to mean both higher prices and slower economic growth. We've seen a lot of forecasters warn that this could tip the United States into

recession. Certainly other countries that rely on exporting to the US are looking at a big economic slowdown. That's why markets have nosedived all around the world in recent days and why investors are so desperate for any sign that maybe there's an off ramp hereamp here. Now Trump did have that phone call yesterday with Japan's Prime Minister, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, says her side is willing to make a deal. But as things stand right now, products from the EU are going to be slapped with a 20% tariff tomorrow. Japanese goods are facing a 24% tariff and imports from China could be

looking at tariffs of over 100%. And the president called on the Federal Reserve to cushion the fallout by lowering interest rates. How likely is that? If we do fall into recession and see a spike in unemployment, the Fed will probably have to lower interest rates. But that's not where we are right now. In fact, the jobs report we got last week showed a stronger labor market than many forecasters had expected. And of course, we're still not out of the woods on inflation. Prices are climbing faster than most people would like, and these high tariffs could push prices even higher. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned he and his colleagues

could end up caught in a tug of war between higher unemployment and higher inflation. It's difficult for a central bank because higher unemployment would call for speeding up the economy and higher inflation would call for slowing it down. Right now the Fed is not inclined to cut interest rates and speed the economy up. It's more likely to keep rates elevated to avoid rekindling inflation. But if we do start to see a lot of layoffs as these tariffs kick in, then that balancing act could change. Could there be some economic benefits of the trade war if it brings other we do start to see a lot of layoffs as these tariffs kick in, then that balancing act could change.

Could there be some economic benefits of the trade war if it brings other countries to the negotiating table? Yeah, we'll have to wait and see. There is some truth to the president's complaint about other countries making it hard for the US to tap into their markets, although in many cases, the tariffs that Trump is levying in response exaggerate the scale of those trade barriers. Supporters say the president is merely employing hardball negotiating tactics, but critics

have a different view. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, for example, describes Trump's tactics here as predatory, especially when tariffs are used to bully some of America's closest allies. I think this is a moment with all the threats in the world when alliances are very important. And when we engage in the kind of threatening behavior we have engaged in, we make things much more dangerous in an already dangerous world. Summers told me recently that he had been disappointed there was not more vocal pushback from businesses and political leaders unhappy with the president's approach. A lot of people have been cowed by Donald Trump.

We have started to hear some of that pushback this week from people like JP Morgan Chase CEO, Jamie Dimon and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman. And if stock prices fall a lot further or if other prices start to climb because of these tariffs, more people may feel empowered to speak out against this trade policy. We've also seen a handful of lawmakers in the House and Senate who've taken steps to reclaim congressional authority over trade policy, which Congress had delegated to the president. Trump has said he'll veto any such legislation though, so it would take a sizable majority on Capitol Hill to overcome that.

And PR Scott Horsley, thank you, Scott. You're welcome. The Supreme Court has ruled that the Trump administration can continue with deportations under a wartime power, at least for now. Throughout lower courts ruling to temporarily stop the deportations under the Alien Enemies Act, President Trump invoked it last month, arguing that Venezuelan gang members in the U.S. constitute a, quote, invasion. Attorneys for the men deported say the use of this act at a time of peace is illegal. They and family members of men deported also say many of those being deported have no criminal

history in the US or their country of origin. Joining us now to break this all down is NPR immigration correspondent Jasmine Garz. Good morning. Good morning. So Jasmine, explain this decision. Is the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the Trump administration using this act? So the court's conservative majority didn't rule on the constitutionality of using the Alien Enemies Act to send migrants to a prison in El Salvador.

Instead, the justices issued a narrow procedural ruling saying that the migrants' lawyers had filed their lawsuit in the wrong court. When the Trump administration invoked this act, the Alien Enemies Act, a rarely used wartime power, the ACLU challenged it saying it's not legal. It denies people the right to fight the allegations in court. So what does this mean for the administration's immigration crackdown? So the Supreme Court backed the Trump administration. In other words, it gave it the green light to continue using the act in order to rapidly

deport alleged gang members. But it also made clear that officials must give migrants adequate notice that they're being removed under the Alien Enemies Act so that they have time to challenge it. And how is the decision being received? The Trump administration is celebrating this as a landmark victory. Attorney General Pam Bondi posted on X that this was a victory and they will continue implementing the act. Immigration advocates I spoke to are all very concerned. I mean the act is designed to move the deportation process

so rapidly it's questionable how much of a chance detainees can actually have to defend themselves. And that's especially concerning given how at this point, it's been well documented that not all of the men being deported under these gang allegations actually have ties to gangs. There's been allegations of people just being picked up because they have a random tattoo of a soccer club. Okay, so a lot of concern around due process there. And there was another legal win for the Trump administration yesterday at the Supreme Court related to the wrongful deportation

of a Maryland dad who was sent to this prison in El Salvador. Tell us about that. Right. You're talking about Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia. He's lived in Maryland for over 10 years. He had a form of legal protection that protected him from deportation, but last month he was detained and sent to El Salvador. The government says his deportation was, quote, an administrative error. The Trump administration does contend he's a gang member. A federal judge said the government has presented no credible evidence that he was ever in a gang. In fact, he has no criminal record in any country.

And a judge ordered the Justice Department to bring Abrego Garcia back to the US. Now this went all the way up to the Supreme Court. Chief Justice Roberts temporarily blocked the order to return Abednego Garcia while the full court considers what to do next. NPR's Jasmine Garce. Thank you, Jasmine. Thank you. And that's A First for Tuesday, April 8th. I'm Laila Fadl.

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