Up First from NPR - Wisconsin Supreme Court Race, Florida's Special Elections, Trump's Trade War

Episode Date: April 1, 2025

A Wisconsin Supreme Court election has become the most expensive judicial race in American history. Democrats are vying to pick up Congressional seats held by Republicans in two Florida special elections. And, investors are bracing for more turbulence, as President Trump prepares to unveil the next phase in his trade war.Want more comprehensive analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today's episode of Up First was edited by Acacia Squires, Russell Lewis, Rafael Nam, Lisa Thomson and Alice Woelfle. It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis and our technical director is Carleigh Strange.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

A state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin is the most expensive judicial race in American history. They will try to stop all of the government reforms that we are doing. Why is this race in particular getting record spending? I'm Michelle Martin, that's Amy Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. Democrats think they have a shot at flipping congressional seats in two Florida special elections. He will be there whenever I need him. He wants to be there whenever we need him. Will President Trump's support help or hurt the Republican candidates' chances?

And a lesson about tariffs from one of the most protected industries in the U.S. If you go under the candy aisle and look at the hard candy, you'll see most of it is made outside the United States. Stay sweet and stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day. That's so funny. That's what my grandmother used to say. Stay sweet. Stay sweet. And I'll be like, why? I want to be sour. Exactly. I want to be salty. A couple months ago here at Planet Money, we stumbled across our favorite kind of economic mystery. Jeff, what is this?

A deal that seemed way too good to be true. What I'm seeing here at least is that it's very high clarity. Join us on our adventure. Doctor, show me what you got. To find out exactly how much a diamond is worth. Planet Money from NPR, wherever you get your podcasts. At Planet Money, we'll take you from a race to make rum in the Caribbean.

Our rum, from a quality standpoint, is the best in the world. To the labs dreaming up the most advanced microchips. It's very rare for people to go inside. To the back rooms of New York's Diamond District. What, you're looking for the stupid guy here? They're all smart, don't worry about it. Planet Money from NPR.

We go to the story and take you along with us, wherever you get your podcasts. When Malcolm Gladwell presented NPR's Throughline podcast with a Peabody Award, he praised it for its historical and moral clarity. On Throughline, we take you back in time to the origins of what's in the news, like presidential power, aging, and evangelicalism.

Time travel with us every week on the Throughline podcast from NPR. Voters in Wisconsin have been casting ballots in the state's closely watched Supreme Court election. It is the most expensive court race in American history, with billionaire Elon Musk and other out-of-state donors spending millions to decide the next justice of the court. Here's Musk over the weekend with a last-minute pitch for the conservative candidate and for what he says are the stakes for President Trump's agenda. They will try to stop all of the government reforms that we are doing and we're getting

done for you, the American people. Join us for more is Wisconsin Public Radio's Anya Van Wagtendonk. Anya, so this state Supreme Court race is getting lots of national attention. I mean, why is it getting that much attention and who are the candidates? Yeah, so this is a contest between Susan Crawford and Brad Schimmel. It's technically a nonpartisan race but Crawford is very clearly the liberal candidate and Schimmel. It's technically a nonpartisan race, but Crawford is very clearly the liberal candidate and Schimmel is very clearly the conservative candidate. So whoever wins will determine the ideological balance

at the court. And that obviously really matters for state law here, of course. But this is also just a really significant election coming after President Donald Trump's win in November. So it's a bit of a test of how voters feel about his first few months in office. And that's a big reason for all of that interest and just tons of money being spent here. Yeah that

money where's it coming from? I mean the numbers are similar to what we see in US Senate races. I mean yeah it is just wild. The latest estimates from Wispolitics, which is a news service here, show that this race has so far cost more than a hundred million dollars. That's almost twice what our last record-setting judge race here in Wisconsin cost two years ago It's coming from both political parties and from all across the country It includes Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and George Soros who are backing Crawford I've seen some celebrity names in the campaign finance reports also supporting her and a few major conservative business people are backing shimel

But far and away the biggest and most significant spender has been Elon Musk supporting Schimel. He says it's really about congressional redistricting. He says that if Schimel loses, Democrats could gain more seats in the U.S. House. Crawford says it's about Musk's business interests. Here's Crawford at a debate with Schimel. Elon Musk started spending that money within days of Tesla filing a lawsuit in Wisconsin. Two quick questions. He was trying to buy access and influence. You know, both candidates are making those accusations

about campaign influence. In Crawford's case, she's referring to a case where Tesla is challenging Wisconsin's car dealership laws. Right now, the company isn't allowed to sell cars in Wisconsin. And Musk isn't just making traditional campaign donations. He also gave out million- dollar checks to registered voters here. That's really skirting the line of, you know, not out and out paying them to vote, which is illegal.

Now, what else is at stake in this race? Abortion law, I think is the most significant issue. There's a case to determine whether abortion is legal. It's already being heard by this court. It's unclear whether that case will have been decided before the winner of this race takes the bench. There's also a major case involving labor law and collective bargaining rights. It's probably going before the state court and exact timing of that is unclear.

And then I'll just note that the Wisconsin Supreme Court has decided a number of voting and election related cases in the past. It came incredibly close to overturning Joe Biden's victory in the state in 2020. So there's just such electoral interest tied up in having control of the highest court in what might be America's swingiest swing state. Swingiest swing state, that's right. I was trying to say that five times fast, but for Wisconsin Public Radio's Anya Van Wagtindong. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. All right, other important races today are in Florida where Democrats think they have a chance to pick up one or two Congressional seats have been held by Republicans in both contests The Democratic candidates have raised far more money than the Republicans and the central issue is once again

President trump and his agenda NPR's Greg Allen has been following the races. He joins us now from Miami. So Greg, I mean, why are these two congressional seats open now? Well, you know, as you started to indicate, these two special elections in Florida are all about President Trump. He looked to the state when it came time to stock his cabinet. You know, remember his first pick for attorney general was Congressman Matt Gaetz, who represented

the first district in the Panhandle. Gates later withdrew his nomination and left Congress, leaving the seat open. The other seat is in Florida's 6th district on the East Coast. It was held by Trump's now national security adviser, Mike Walz. Trump won both of those districts in November by more than 30 points, so Republicans are favored to hold on to the seats. But a lot of things have changed since Trump started carrying out his agenda and Democrats have contributed millions of dollars to both races. They think they're competitive in both of them. All right, so tell us about the candidates. Well, in both districts, the Republican candidates have close ties to Trump. In the panhandle,

Florida's chief financial officer, Jimmy Patronus, is running with Trump's endorsement. His opponent is Democrat, Gabe Valamant, who lost in November by more than 30 points to Matt Gaetz. This is the first congressional district up near Pensacola, where there's a lot of military bases and a lot of veterans. Valamant's been talking about the Trump administration cuts to the VA, so she's hoping that will resonate. She's raised more than $6 million several times what her opponent has pulled in. In the other districts on Florida's East Coast, Republican State Senator Randy Fine is running also with Trump's endorsement. Back when Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was challenging Trump for the GOP presidential nomination, Fine was one of

just a handful of Republicans in the state legislature who snubbed DeSantis and backed Trump and Trump referenced that in a campaign call for fine last week. He was one of 14 Florida state legislatures who endorsed me very early in my campaign for president that's why Randy will always have a very open door to the Oval Office he will be there whenever I need him. Fine's opponent is Democrat Josh Wheal he's a school teacher who's raised some 10 million dollars again that's several times what his opponent has pulled in. All right, so campaign cash clearly flowing there. But how real are Democrats' chances of flipping seats that have been held by Republicans?

Well, they think they have a shot at doing it, especially in the 6th district on the East Coast. Two recent polls there show Wheal is just three or four points behind fine, which is within the margin of error. Democrats see these special elections as a place to begin rallying a party that saw big losses in November. The National Democratic Party chair, Ken Martin was here this weekend campaigning for both candidates. He pointed to special elections in Pennsylvania last week in which Democrats won two legislative seats that had been Republican.

One of them helped us win back the state house majority and another seat that hasn't been represented by a Democrat since the 1880s. It's a plus 23% Republican district and we won that in Pennsylvania. Martin says, you know, even if they come up short though, the Democratic candidates in Florida will overperform expectations. It's clear also that Republicans, including President Trump, are worried about every congressional race and the possibility that they could lose their narrow majority in Congress. That's why last week we saw Trump poll Congressman Elise Stefanik's nomination for UN ambassador. Instead of going to the UN now, she's going to be remaining in Congress. That's NPR's Greg Allen in Miami.

Greg, thanks. You're welcome. All right. It's been a rough few months in the stock market. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite just closed out their worst quarter in three years. Investors are bracing for more turbulence as President Trump prepares to unveil the next phase in his trade war, what he's calling Liberation Day. Trump has said he will impose reciprocal tariffs to match the duties other countries place on American goods. MPR Scott Horsley joins us now. So Scott, why are investors so concerned about tariffs?

Well, hey, tariffs are taxes. They generally push up prices. They're a potential drag on spending, and they invite retaliation against U.S. exports. On top of that, you've got the unpredictable way the Trump administration has rolled out his tariff agenda on one day, off the next, back on again. All that just adds the uncertainty and makes it very hard for businesses to plan. Alright, then how does the U.S. stack up against other countries when it comes to trade barriers? Since the Second World War, the U.S. has generally pushed to lower trade barriers, not raise them.

But there have always been a few domestic industries that have enjoyed special protection, and those offer some clues about how Trump's protectionist instincts might play out in other parts of the economy. One of the most protected industries in this country is sugar. The US has high trade barriers against imported sugar. As a result, the price of sugar in this country is usually about twice what it is on the world market. Now, that might not be a big deal if you're just putting a spoonful of sugar in your coffee every morning, but it's a very big

deal if you buy sugar by the truckload like Kirk Vashaw does. He's the CEO of Spangler Candy, which makes Dum Dums, Bit of Honey, and Candy Canes in Bryan, Ohio. His is one of the last hard candy manufacturers that still operates in this country. Chicago used to be the candy capital of the United States, and it's not anymore. It's been hollowed out. If you go in the candy aisle and look at the hard candy, you'll see most of it is made outside the United States. It's not the cost of the labor, it's the cost of the sugar.

So lesson one, trade barriers drive up cost and while that's meant higher profits for US sugar producers, it's been very expensive for all the businesses and consumers who buy sweets. In some cases, it's driven them out of the country. Trade barriers not only affect the bottom line but also how businesses operate too, right? Yeah, and a good example of that is the so-called chicken tax. Back in the 1960s, Germany slapped a tariff on imported chickens from the U.S.,

so the U.S. retaliated with a tax on imported pickup trucks. And that pickup truck tariff is still in place decades later. And the tariff is 25%, 10 times what the US had been charging on imported cars. That's why you see a lot of imported cars in the US, but very few imported pickup trucks. There's a deep protectionist moat around the US pickup market. And chief economist Eugenio Alemana of Raymond James says that's why domestic automakers have put so much of their focus on building pickup trucks and SUVs. It is more profitable to produce light trucks than to be competitive in sedans. Basically, the US auto manufacturers abandon any idea of competing in the global economy with small cars.

And so that's a second lesson from these protected industries. Industries that are protected by high trade barriers typically have less incentive to invest and innovate and compete in worldwide markets. And you know, this week, President Trump is widening that moat around pickup trucks to protect domestic autos with a 25% tariff as well. That's NPR's Scott Horsey. Scott, thanks. You're welcome.

And that's Up First for Tuesday, April 1st. I'm E. Martinez. And I'm Michelle Martin. Your next listen is Consider This from NPR. We here at Up First give you the three big stories of the day. Our Consider This colleagues take a different approach. They dive into a single new story and what it means to you.

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