Upgrade - 440: Apple Bricked My House!

Episode Date: January 2, 2023

It's a new year, and Jason has made his fearless predictions about what will happen in 2023! (Myke has questions.) We also consider the fate of the iPhone Plus, discuss Apple pausing its HomeKit architecture roll-out, and pour one out for Dark Sky.

from relay fm happy new year this is upgrade episode 440 it's january the 2nd 2023 this episode is brought to you by uni pizza ovens squarespace and fitbard yes if this was your first indication that it was a new year happy new year to you my name is mike early and i'm joined by jason snell hi jason beep boop beep boop oh no jason's a robot in 2020 i'm a robot it's the year 2023 oh it's the future we're in the future i'm a robot now all Oh, yeah. One of those robots. Hi. I have been gone from my house for a couple of weeks, not sitting at a desk, not talking into this microphone.

And I don't know how anything works anymore. We'll work it out as we move along. You know, I'm really feeling the Monday morning podcast thing right now is what I'm saying. No, I'm really feeling the Monday morning podcast thing right now is what I'm saying. The thing that will really help us here, right, is having a very strict format for the show. It's one of the great things about Upgrade. And it helps you get going. So we'll start off, as we always do, with a Snow Talk question. And this one comes from Zach. And Zach says, Jason, do you enjoy fireworks?

A little behind the scenes, everybody. Originally, Mike was going to ask me about my New Year's resolutions or themes. And I said, Mike, my answer is going to be no, I don't have any. Give me something else. Feed me something else. So I've given you fireworks instead. Do you enjoy fireworks? I just said, well, one was like a big, you know, meaty thing.

And you didn't have that. So I was like, well, let me go toy thing, and you didn't have that. So I was like, well, let me go to the most simple yes or no question for you. And the answer is they're pretty. And who doesn't like pretty, sparkly things? So, yes, I do. In fact, we just got to watch them because we went to Disneyland. Magical place on Earth. It is, yes, the Magic Kingdom, Magical place on Earth. It is, yes, the Magic Kingdom.

The happiest place on Earth. One of its slogans is not the magical place on Earth. That's a little weird. There's only one. And it's at Disneyland. You must find it. Oh, Jason, I hate you right now. At 9.30

at 9.30pm, they do fireworks. And we got there. We got up at 6am and we got there before 8. I was close. And make a full day of it. The tagline that I was going for was the most magical place on earth, which was one of the taglines for the Magic Kingdom, according to Wikipedia. That's what I just forgot to say most. Okay.

You got five out of the six words. Anyway, we managed to gut it out and get all the way to the fireworks and watch the fireworks, and they were very pretty. And then we went home and went to bed and slept like logs because that was a very long day. I want to know everything about your Disneyland experience, but we're not going to talk about it in the regular show. I'm going to save that for Upgrade Plus.

I want to know everything. We got a lot on the docket today. I feel like maybe I shouldn't derail the entire episode asking you about Disneyland. So go to getupgradeplus.com. You can sign up and hear what Jason thinks about Disneyland. plus.com you can sign up and hear what jason thinks about disneyland i should say also um also also well aware amateurs firing off fireworks at midnight on new year's eve are annoying many animals are disturbed by fireworks in fact our dog growing up um we had to give him we had to give him a pill and we brought him in the house because he was an outside

dog but we would bring him in the house on fourth of july give him a pill. And we brought him in the house because he was an outside dog, but we would bring him in the house on 4th of July, give him a pill, and then he would just sleep in front of the stove because he got very upset by the sound of the fireworks. So understandable.

And yet as a human, I enjoy the fireworks. They're very bright and shiny and fun. I like fireworks. I think nobody should be able to buy fireworks. I think fireworks should be a thing that are professionals only. Yeah.

Yeah, I agree. Just blow your hand off with those fireworks. Don't do it. And I say this again as somebody whose father would buy fireworks and fire them all off from a table on the 4th of July. And it's amazing that we didn't all explode slash burn down. If you would like to send in a Snow Talk question of your own, you can send them out via Twitter with the hashtag Snow Talk.

You can use question mark Snow Talk in the RelayFM members Discord. And probably by the next time you hear this, we'll have our feedback system up and running. So maybe when you're listening to this, if you go to the webpage for this episode, you'll see a little thing that says feedback, and you could send it in that way too. We'll talk about it next week more because it should be up and running by next week. Great. I have some follow up for you, Jason. Okay. 9to5Mac is reporting that the iPhone 14 Pro, its availability now

appears to be improving. Wait times are decreasing for home delivery. Some models have same-day pickup. So Apple seems to be getting their hands around this issue now. You know how I knew this was happening? Because, okay, over the holiday, I'm an American. A lot of football, a lot of college football, a lot of professional football, a lot of football on. And I watch the football.

And not that football that you're thinking of the actual american football anyway um they have i have noticed with amusement that for a while they were running iphone 14 ads which have a Idris Elba song behind them. Yeah, I like that song. It's fun. Yeah, it's a lot of fun. I was like, this sort of sounds like Idris Elba. I looked it up. He is the artist on that track. Okay.

Anyway, last week, I noticed all of a sudden they're doing the iPhone 14 pro ads again with a different song and i thought and with the dynamic island and all of that and i thought they must have them in stock again right like because they very much stopped for for the holidays like they stopped advertising the iphone 14 pro and uh like right after christmas boom they were back so uh obviously they are catching up now they and whether whether that is that they are meeting more demand or whether that's the demand has gone down because it's post christmas now i don't know but um what what better sign that the iphone 14 pro is back than that

apple's actually advertising it again after they stopped for a while and said no no the i14 is great 14 14 so yeah it's back baby i went into the apple store app today to kind of just look at this myself and there are most of the phones were still into january here but there was one thing that i don't recall seeing before you know like you get the delivery dates and it's like uh available in store for home delivery there's a button that said need it sooner and if i tap that it showed me different models either colors or sizes that were immediately available for in-store pickup and stuff like that i thought it was very interesting there's a sign of the times but yes i think the key here is uh now that the christmas rush is mostly over i would expect uh and or they've gotten their

production more in check which we've been talking about or which we were talking about before all of the holiday uh frivolities that have occurred on the show over the last few weeks um that apple have kind of gotten that uh a little bit more under control but i'm still i'm still very keen to see what the the hole in the earnings report is going to be for for what this christmas has done yeah we spoke about third-party app stores during the Antitrust Holiday Special. Mm-hmm. And we had...

It's the most wonderful time of the year. Sorry, it's the wonderful time of the year. The wonderful. Thank you. No, it's wonderful time of the year. It's wonderful time of year. It's wonderful time of year. And Mark wrote in a piece of feedback,

which was something I wanted to talk about on the episode. And so we could talk about it now. I'll read this from Mark. It's a chunk, but let me get through it. I think there is a huge risk from companies like Epic or Meta or Amazon or TikTok or others launching stores with free apps that are quickly seen as indispensable, hot new things by people. Typically younger audiences, for example

my teenage kids, are in the thrall of snap and tiktok and be real because all their friends are. I think this presents a huge risk because most parents will not be able to resist allowing this and once they're all set up on those stores it quickly becomes uncool to use the boring regular app store. It's not a certainty but it seems this would be exactly what meta or byte dance and co would immediately work hard to achieve do you think this is a tangible risk if not how so well this is a thing that i've heard a lot when people talk about third-party app stores it's just like oh facebook will set one up and then they'll leave the app store but there is a case in there is an existing case which is android where there have been people can sideload and put third party apps on their devices.

And historically, it was proven this is not a good idea for anybody. And most of the apps that have done this have either had multiple versions or ended up just kind of abandoning it. Right. I also kind of feel like just, know again android and ios they're different you know we don't really know how it would go on ios but my kind of feeling is like all of these apps that mark's mentioned they they need to be where the mass market is they need to do that like that's right you know i mean epic did it with fortnite kind of but there's like a whole different thing around what's going on with fortnite right where like they wanted to get kicked off the store so they could try and get their own store they're doing that but they got

like a whole other play going on because epic actually do already run their own store business right so it's like it's like steam would like their own store as well but i don't really imagine It's like Steam would like their own store as well. But I don't really imagine Meta wanting to set up their own app store and then only offer Instagram and Facebook and Facebook Messenger through it. And even if they did want to do that, I can't imagine that they also still wouldn't offer those apps in the app store. Right. This is the...

And we did address this in the episode. But the idea here is that, yes, it's been tried on Android and everybody realizes you need to be in the default app store. These are huge businesses. The last thing they want to do is make people go through a multi-stage process to sideload their app off of the app store. Although you might say, oh, you know, indispensable and my kids are in the thrall of Snapchat or whatever. The truth is, you know, giving up whatever the number is, 90%, 80%, 60% of your audience who won't follow you out of the app store is not an option. It's not an option, right? And very few companies are going to say, let us sabotage our primary business in order to do this app store thing that we want to do. Like, try to pencil out how that makes sense for almost anybody. Imagine if this does work, right? Imagine if this is the thing and they go and like,

people then want to use the Meta App Store because it's got like a bunch of cool games in it or whatever that are free. I feel like there's still two things left, which is one, Apple's still going to offer some level of protection, some kind of like threat protection, notarization or whatever for like truly bad stuff. Then the only difference is the guidelines, right? I feel like. Yeah. And I still feel like companies of this size, like a Meta or whatever, they can't let truly terrible stuff in an app store that they control. Like, just from

a pr perspective well the argument becomes oh well it'll be it'll it'll be creepy and and uh you know it'll do app tracking and stuff like that right it'll it'll be it'll be creepy in terms of tracking your behavior it's like okay um yeah for for yeah and that's not great, but the solution is not to use it. And I would probably argue that if you're using Facebook or TikTok today, they may not be – they know all about you. They may not be doing third-party tracking, but they're tracking you already. So I think that's a little bit ridiculous. already tracking, but they're tracking you already. So I think that's a little bit ridiculous. I also, I gotta be honest, we got a bunch of feedback about this for people who are fighting the last war. There are a lot of people who seem to be arguing with us about why Apple shouldn't

do this. So let me just put it again, what we said in that episode, which is we're not talking about whether Apple should do this. We're talking about a report from a reporter with great credibility saying Apple is doing this because it has to do it. So you can argue all you like about why you think it's still a bad idea, but it's happening, right? Because the EU is making it happen. And so the question becomes, what are the ramifications of this? If you're concerned about this stuff, I get it. But I think we've said before, and we just said again today, I think people are overstating it because I think they are hyping up the arguments about why Apple shouldn't do it. And Apple is number one in hyping those arguments. But I think they overdo it. I think that the rhetoric on this is overheated and it will not be that big a deal. It will be a big deal, but not like a cataclysm because of what we just said, which is very few companies are going to make the risk of pulling their whole

business out of the app store and hoping to walk you through a multi-stage process to get you across to their store. Most companies are not going to, even if they go in other app stores or offer a side load, are not going to want to abandon the app store because it is the easiest. And if you're a parent, I mean, you say, well, my kids are going to, I don't know, bully me into turning it off so that they can have this coolness. Like it, it raises the bar. And the answer is, as a parent, you have to say, nuh-uh, I'm not letting you out of the app store. And I think a lot of parents won't. And again, then if you're an app

that's trying to appeal to that audience, you once again are faced with that same dilemma, which is, well, how many audience members do I lose by not being in the app store? And I'm telling you, for almost every case, the answer is too many. And, you know, the other thing about this is part of, I think, the thing we keep talking about is that it should never have had to get here. Like, this should have been something that Apple should have dealt with on their own, but they decided not to.

Yeah. Out of greed, really. I think at a certain certain point it changed from any other reason it was just agreed and now this as jason said the train has left the station right like it's happening so now we're just talking about like how are they going to make it work because they're going to have to right what what form will it take yeah and what will what will it result is where we are but i i remain convinced that you're not going to have mainstream apps that just utterly abandon the app store for their own thing and make everybody go through those hoops in order to get out of the app store because Because as I said a couple weeks ago, most people won't do it, right? Most people are going to be,

are going to get that, this app may kill you warning from Apple and be like, oh, I don't want to die. No, the end, right? End scene. And they didn't sideload anything, right? And so like, it's a big, it's not to use this phrase,

but I guess I'll use it. It's a big ask. It is a very high level request to get somebody to turn off all those features and install something from the outside. And like most people are just not going to do it. The app store is too easy. It's too easy. I wanted to do a quick piece of follow-outs or something.

So back in September, my friend Ian visited London and mega studio, and we shot a studio tour video that I'd previously spoken about on the show we also recorded like an interview so he sat down and interviewed me and you know I've done a bunch of interviews over the many years about podcasting and on various shows and stuff but this time it was about other things which I really enjoyed so we spoke about kind of my product design work at Cortex brand and my keyboard and streaming stuff so I really enjoyed. So we spoke about kind of my product design work at Cortex brand and my keyboard and streaming stuff. So I really liked how this turned out. I was very proud of it

and these are important things in my life that I don't get to talk about very much and so I wanted to let people know that it's out there if they want to listen to it. Or watch it. It's a YouTube video. I mean you could listen but you probably also would want to watch.

Also Jason, this is what it's like when I don't use Twitter anymore. Like, this is where I now, if I have things like this, I have to talk about them on my shows. This is like a weird thing that I'm trying to work out still. So was that a tweet just there? Yeah, I just tweeted, yeah. I have a video you should see. In case you missed it.

It's this YouTube video. You know, that's what I'm doing now. This episode is brought to you by our friends at Ooni Pizza Ovens. Ooni is the world's number one pizza oven company. And Jason, I don't know if you know this, but I will tell you anyway. Ooni has just celebrated

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backyard. Our thanks to Uni Pizza ovens for their support of this show and RelayFM. Saddle on up, partner. It's time for a rumor roundup. Yeehaw! Okay. Is that still what we do? It's 23. I don't even know anymore.

I mean, we're a little bit more modern with our roundups. You know, like maybe there's like carts now as well as just the horses. But we're moving slowly into the future. With iOS 16.2, Apple released an architecture update for the Home app that was intended to improve a lot of HomeKit reliability stuff and enable full support for Matter. to improve a lot of HomeKit reliability stuff and enable full support for Matter.

This required people updating every device that was attached to their home, and it was complicated. It was actually something I hadn't gone through yet because it was just like, I looked at it and it was like, you got these three, and it's just too much of a pain, so I just didn't get around to it. This has now been pulled from 16.2. You can no longer do the upgrade. I don't know how they've done this. It must be some server-side thing that they've just stopped people from seeing the option in the Home app. It is expected this may have been

because of some reports of people having issues with their HomeKit scenes or devices no longer working. MacRumors is reporting that, Apple has added the home app update to a database of hardware and software issues internally, which is a rare move for a software-related problem. The list used by Apple, Apple stores, and authorized service providers typically only includes widespread issues faced by customers, including mostly

hardware problems. So it's not going great for the new home architecture. You could say, Jason, that the foundations of this are a little shaky. Ooh, I see what you did there. The roof's a little leaky. I'm sad about this because I've also seen a couple of companies that were doing their Matter upgrades have delayed them. Seems like this has maybe been a little bit more complicated to implement uh than was otherwise expected

yeah it's gonna i mean we did say it's gonna be a transitional period it's gonna be rough and this is i believe this isn't even matter it's the new architecture that allows them to support matter yeah and i will say clearly they built a trapdoor into this right so they must have been a little wary about because they built in a thing that let them flip the switch and like not offer yeah that upgrade and it was already not like you had to go looking for it yeah yeah so this was all a very careful test rollout of this so i'm'm not, I'm not really surprised, but it's, it is a little disappointing. But then again, I also like the fact that Apple is being careful with this, right? And not just doing what I think an Apple in the past might've done, which is just roll it out to everybody and go, good luck. And then have bad things happen to people's homes, right? Which is not good.

Like my lights don't work anymore do you remember like the days where they would have an ios update apple bricked my house right that would be the story right do you remember they used to have those days of ios updates where they would roll them out and something terrible would happen and they'd have to stop like there was like a thing of like if you would do the ios update and it would like break your entire device that stuff is rough i think that's why they do these things now where if you have automatic updates on they don't push it immediately like it can sometimes take a little while like download it and maybe they have like a thing where they then start updating them on a rolling basis like the automatic update stuff it's not like as soon as the update comes out, it just goes for it. It's interesting.

They're being careful, and that seems to have paid off in this case, that they needed to be careful. According to posts shared by MacRumors, Apple is supposedly quote, seriously concerned about the sales of the iPhone 14 Plus. So this is

the bigger phone. This is in the I called this on Connected the cursed spot for I think now for the iPhone lineup. Because it replaced the mini. And it seems like this spot is a bad spot. And Apple seems to be

aware of that because they are now supposedly re-evaluating the iPhone 15 lineup due to this i don't know what they could do go on can i can i give you a little can i have a moment of schadenfreude here please please oh oh oh it turns out it isn't the mini is it the mini isn't the problem is it yeah i mean it was a problem. But they just, they rearranged the deck chairs.

It's still a problem. Let's make it big instead of small. Surely that is the reason. It's the smallness that offended. No, it's not. Turns out I, okay, Mike, what do you think about this?

Ready? This is a new thing we're doing in 2023 until we stop. It's just in this episode though, probably. Okay. What if the iPhone 14's appeal, let's assume the iPhone 14 does okay,

right? The plus, the mini haven't done well, but the 14 does okay. What if the iPhone 14's appeal is that it's cheap and that's it? And then, and like, it's a cheap regular phone.

What if that's it? What if there is no like, oh, we've got two models and people can choose. And it's like, that's too complicated. You've got the Pro, which is like the really nice, good phone that people get if they've got the money to spend on the cutting edge. And then you've got an option,

an option for something that's cheaper, that's not on the cutting edge. It's sort of a year back in terms of tech. i wonder if apple is over complicated this i wonder if the truth is that most people at least the volumes that they want to see right like it's not an se or not a mini or a plus what if the complexity like there's too much complexity and it's really like you've got the pro and the and the pro Max and then you've got a phone that's cheaper. What if that's the most complexity that the market can bear in terms of what consumers are looking for? That there are very few consumers who are like, well, I don't want the cutting edge great phone.

I want something cheaper. Now let's shop in the line of cheaper phones because it seems like that's sort of not happening and then and then like and on one level i would say this is a success of like an iphone 14 right and the 13 before it like having a plain iphone as a cheaper model i think maybe also was not necessarily something that was going to succeed, but it seems to have succeeded. But then like blooming a lineup around it and being like, oh, now you pick from a bigger one or a smaller one.

It's like maybe it's not the size. Maybe it's the complexity that where people are just rejecting it. It's like, no, no, no. I just want the iPhone that's cheaper. Not the big iPhone, not the little iPhone, just the iPhone that's cheaper. And that beyond that, Apple's trying to cut this too fine, I wonder.

I agree with you. I'm going to say something slightly different, but I do agree with you, where I think the issue might not be the complexity, it's the simplicity of the other option, which is like, hey hey it's the cheap one but different in this one way and maybe that's not enough yeah well that's i mean that's what i mean by the complexity is that is that the yes it once you get past that first layer which is

it's the cheap one i wonder if there's really a lot of desire from any potential buyer to sort through the options other than like instead of just being like can i just have the default now please i so so yes you're saying what i'm saying which is that there's a simplicity and a complexity and are we surprised i i maybe we shouldn't be that that the the consumers as a whole don't really want that extra layer of complexity um maybe the thing we don't know like we don't know is how this is sold compared to the mini right right my expectation was it would sell more but i don't know that and even though apple seems seriously concerned it could have sold more but now the

concern is oh no the problem is actually this fourth spot is bad, the way we are doing this doesn't work. And the way this is reported is also, and this is all very hazy, right? Because only people inside Apple actually know this. So there's this sort of like hubbub, like little rumors, little rhubarb of like, what if it's bad? But if we take it seriously,

and this is the same time two years ago where they said they're not going to do the mini again after next year. Right. They still had those plans in process. So they did it. But they had very quickly, they looked at the numbers. This is like a show opening and closing on Broadway. Yeah.

After like one performance where they look at the numbers. They're like, it's not going to make it. So I think that that's interesting. The way that this is phrased is not, oh, they're worried about cannibalization from the Pro Max. Like the Pro Max sales are doing fine. Apparently, right? The Pro and Pro Max sales are doing fine. And so, yes, I agree with you. I think maybe it's this slot and that the idea that they are varying it in this way and giving you two choices at the low end that people don't want two choices at the low end necessarily. And I think that's interesting, right? Like, look, let's harken back to when Apple only sold one phone size. And Samsung went out there

and sold a bunch of different ones and found out that bigger phones had appeal. And the power in that, as much as Samsung's approach is not Apple's approach, the power in that is that they got to, they didn't just theorize about what people wanted. And I know that people, especially in Apple spheres, talk about the whole faster horse thing. The truth is, as much advantage as Apple gains, I think, in making judgments itself instead of focus group testing everything, right? Like I think there's

benefit in that, in having confidence in your own vision. It's not, you know, it's not the same as putting a product in the market and seeing what happens, right? That is the ultimate test is actually releasing the product and seeing what happens. And nobody knows, right? Apple doesn't know. Samsung didn't know. Samsung didn't know, right? Samsung tried a bunch of stuff and they learned that a big phone was a thing. But it's not like Samsung said, we believe a large phone will sell and released a big phone first thing and was like, see, we were right. That's not what they did. They released a bunch of stuff and then they learned. And this may be one of those cases where like Apple, you think Apple knows the iPhone market really well. And of course they do. They

know lots of details about where these models sell and when they sell and who's buying old models and who's buying new models and how it differs based on the geographic location. They know all of that stuff, right? But there are things that they can't know unless they try it. And if this is true, it's fascinating because it is Apple doing, it's like the scientific method happening, except with a two-year delay because of the way Apple does its product designs, where they're like, okay, let's do the mini phone. That didn't work. Well, let's do a bigger phone. That didn't work. And what's the lesson from bigger phone. Hmm, that didn't work. And like, what's the lesson from that? And again, I'm not sure they know, but they can at least try to

extrapolate, try to intuit from the reaction of the consumer base, of the audience, of the market, what's going on here. And I guess we'll find out in two years or or maybe with a shift in their in their marketing strategy in a year the expectation uh from these reports is that apple's considering two approaches for the iphone 15 one is to reduce the price of the 15 plus i don't think that will do it or to further differentiate the features of each model I don't think that will do it. Or to further differentiate the features of each model. Now, you know, to actually make it like here are four phones and they have like four different feature sets.

Now, I would assume, I think, and be correct, that the hardware is set for the 15 line. So if they're going to do that, I expect it's some kind of marketing difference, really, that they would talk about. Or maybe they give it some software features or whatever as being the bigger phone I think that them

splitting out the line more we're going to talk about the Ultra in a minute the idea of an Ultra in a minute a little bit that could do something but I don't know what if they continue to differentiate the line by pushing the most expensive phone away from the

pro phone there could be something there i don't know maybe they'll just go iphone they have two pros and then ultra i don't know yeah i i had one thought about this that i mean i'm sure this is an argument that everybody at apple had like three weeks ago, but I'll just throw it out there, which is, I wonder if you could reduce complexity by taking a page from the iPad and the Mac book and saying, we have, here is the iPhone 15. It comes in two sizes.

Instead of having it be iPhone 15 and 15 plus and 15 pro and 15 pro max or 15 ultra, right? Where there's like all like they're different products. I wonder if they might do better. Maybe it wouldn't make any difference, but I wonder if they might do better if they just said, here's the iPhone 15, it comes in two sizes. Which one do you prefer? The, the more expensive one is, you know, it's bigger and it's $50 more expensive or something, something, you know, maybe, maybe a little less than, than the current spread between them. Like just, and keep it simple of like, okay, great. We have two, which one do you want? Would that work? Would that help? I'm not sure. I mean, you're, you're trying to do the best you can with what you are, if the hardware is already baked, right? It's like, how do we,

all you can really vary is like how you sell it and how you price it. But I've also had that thought, which is in the long run, would you be better off having an iPhone Ultra and an iPhone Pro and an iPhone and differentiating that way instead and an iPhone SE or something, and just keep it like, we're not going to do two of each iPhone anymore. We're going to do three iPhones and let people choose. And the successor to the iPhone 14 Pro Max, which we're calling iPhone 15 Ultra for the time being, is now expected to not be wholly assembled at Foxconn. Taiwanese research firm Trendforce is reporting that

LuxShare will be taking on some of the work for this product. LuxShare is also a Chinese manufacturer, so this isn't them differentiating their locations, the geographical thing we've spoken about before, but more potentially to differentiate from Foxconn because Foxconn has had its own set of specific problems in 2022 with upset workers and rioting and pay issues and all that kind of stuff so this is a this is a split but it's not the split maybe that we're looking for uh luxia has

been key for apple they do the airpods manufacturing um they've done some they dabbled in some iphone stuff as well but airpods is what they are mostly used for so this is at least them continuing to like spread a bit it is wild that they have all so many eggs in just this one big basket and so i guess this is just an example of them uh spreading that out a bit more yeah interesting so going it's moving on a little bit uh it's now 2023 as we we mentioned. And so, as promised, the Dark Sky app is gone. It's gotten real dark now. Yeah, it's very dark. It's the darkest.

Is it darker or has the Dark Sky gone away so now it's light? Well, it is always darkest before the dawn. Interesting. So we're in the dawn. It's dawn sky now. Anyway, Apple bought Dark Sky. Yes, and Red Sky at morning. Sailors take warning. is that is that how it

is because i know it's like red sky sky at night sailors delight red sky at morning sailors take warning isn't isn't it shepherds i mean maybe in england do you not have you have sailors in england yeah sailors here anyway oriented uh dark sky was bought by Apple a couple of years ago, and they promised to keep the app and the API running for a period of time. Yeah, until the far future of 2023. And it's now here. So the app is now gone. It was like January 1st, gone.

The API is set to be closed in March. gone. The API is set to be closed in March. I use and have used the dark sky API source option, in Kara weather for a long time. And so now I'm wondering what to move to instead. The reason I have used dark sky is because I find it to be very reliable with weather in general. But of course, I find it to be very reliable with weather in general, but of course the rain notifications and forecasting is the key for dark sky. And it's always been great for me here. And it's helpful for in a few months of the year, it doesn't rain 12 months of the year in the UK. People think it does. It doesn't, but it does rain a lot during a period of time so dark sky has always been important to me and i'm wondering if maybe should i just move to apple weather now as a as a thing i mean i would expect they would be able to do a decent enough job i today changed uh my source in carrot weather in one app and left

it in dark sky for the other and they forecast were completely different uh so for example um dark sky today said the feels like temperature of six degrees celsius uh apple weather said five degrees well can't be today right it was like yesterday or two days ago no this is today i looked today dark dark sky but dark sky dark sky api march oh api yeah The Dark Sky API March. Oh, API. Okay. Precipitation in Dark Sky was 19% a chance, and in Apple Weather was 0% chance. Here's a theory I have. So Dark Sky is aggregating weather data from different sources,

and so now so is Apple Weather. They don't have their own, like, bureau. And I wonder if they, the moved apple whether if they have continued to update and change their um their data sources and their model and if they parked the dark sky api a while ago and haven't made any changes to it that's my guess just so maybe this is better is what you're saying based on the fact that well certainly different based on the fact that you're seeing different data they're obviously not identical but i do do wonder if, wouldn't that make sense that when they're moving from the dark sky, the dark sky got bought by Apple. So they're building out the next generation API, which is going to be Apple weather, that they would at some point just sort of leave dark sky where it is and update the Apple weather thing. So that might be part of it. And update the Apple weather thing. So that might be part of it.

Lauren and I were talking about this because she was like, you know, no dark stuff going away. And I get those precipitation alerts. And I said, well, I get them in Apple weather. So you can have precipitation alerts in Apple weather. It's not the same. If you want the same, you should use Carrot Weather. Pay for Carrot Weather. should use Carrot Weather. Pay for Carrot Weather.

And then, as Brian Carrot was pointing out on Twitter or Mastodon or somewhere, there is a new thing. It was on Twitter, so I'll just tell you about it now, Mike. Thank you. Brian Carrot, Brian Mueller, but I'd call him Brian Carrot because he makes carrot. Named it after

himself, obviously. They added a new layout in Carrot weather called inline that basically is the dark sky layout oh and so if you want to use if you want an app that just looks like dark sky uh carrot weather can do that for you but the apple weather app will do precipitation alerts so um it's not necessarily a bad idea to get it right and use it for that. But they may not be the same. I'm going to use the Apple weather data source in carrot weather.

That's my plan. And I'm going to, I like your theory, and I'm going to choose to believe that, that the Apple weather is more reliable now. The one thing I was thinking is like, I guess one of the things I can feel, hopefully feel good that Apple weather is as close to correct as possible, which is they serve so many people with that service,

with like the official weather app, they have to do a decent job or I would be hearing about it. Kind of like maps, you know, like I was worried about the weather app when they moved to their own service. Like, I was worried about an Apple Maps situation. But that doesn't seem to have happened.

Like, I don't feel like I've heard a lot of people being really upset about the Weather app. In fact, I feel like I've heard actually the opposite. People seem to really like the iOS 16 Weather app. I wanted to point out, and we'll put a link in the show notes,

to an article on Slate called The World's Best Terrible Weather App. That is perfectly named, yes. I hated the Dark Sky app. I'm seeing people be surprised by what this article says, and I wasn't, but i want to state what it says which is how did dark sky work the answer is dark sky looked at at radar images and then tried to intelligently plot the radar images are like where the precipitation is intelligently plot where those

would continue on to there it was literally processing the radar images in order to do kind of like okay well if this dot of rain is here now and it's moving north northwest then in the next frame it'll be here and in the next frame it'll be here which on a very small scale actually works pretty well uh which i disagree with this article that says oh it's complete bs and it doesn't work at all i think in small scales like that's how we use radar right is you look at the radar and you say oh the rain's coming in and it's headed my way and now it's here and now it's gone dark sky does a great job it does a great job like yeah so this article also quotes a lot of meteorologists who are very cranky because they're like but we have models you got to use the models

and like the problem is your models don't say uh you know five minutes away there's going to be rain right and although dark sky is not always accurate i i think that there there's a bit of chauvinism here where uh meteorologists are like you know these people aren't experts we you trust us but all but the the people who built dark sky were using radar the way people use radar, which is to say, is that blob of rain going to cross over where I am in the next hour? model of weather can't do, or at least doesn't do, because they're not updating every five minutes with pinpoint locations of precipitation, right? That's not what it's for. It's a different kind of thing. Anyway, I found that article fascinating because the meteorologists hate dark sky. And I, although this article I feel like is extremely against dark sky and misses some important points about why it actually did make sense. I think it's also fair to point out that, yes, dark skies methodology could be shaky because dark skies methodology was based on analyzing tracks of precipitation in radar.

And that doesn't always work. Right. Because there are certain I'll tell you for california and isn't this typical because everything works in california uh for california work pretty well because we don't have like thunderstorms that pop out of nowhere we we have waves of rain that just come in it works great in london too right like it's worked fantastically for me in london you know to the point where it would say rain stopping in five minutes and it would you know it was perfect and so yeah now i'm moving to apple weather uh i do note now that i get a 10-day forecast rather than a seven-day forecast

so that's nice it's nice that's good this episode is brought to you by squarespace the all-in-one platform for building your brand and growing your business online. You can stand out with a beautiful website, engage with your audience and sell your products, services, the content that you create, anything with Squarespace. They have got you covered. I just went through recently and refreshed my personal website. I wanted to kind of like set it up again and kind of be like almost like a portfolio page for me of different projects that I'm involved in to different shows. And I decided to just sit down

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Then when you're ready to launch, use the offer code upgrade and you'll save 10% of your first purchase of a website or domain. That is squarespace.com slash upgrade. And when you sign up, use the code upgrade to get 10% of your first purchase and show your support for the show. Our thanks to Squarespace for the continued support of this show and all of RelayFM. Jason, you wrote a couple of prediction articles for Macworld, and I wanted to run through

the kind of categories and the products and what you think is going to happen for Apple in 2023. Should we get started and look at the Mac? Sure. Now I need to remember what I predicted, but I'm sure I was right. Okay. Sure.

So looking at the Mac, you are expecting MacBook Pro updates and Mac mini updates to get the M2 chips, right? Yeah. I mean, this is basically us taking, you know, or me taking the rumor roundup that we do here and trying to kind of like put it out there as, you know, what are the details and what's going to come through and what's not going to come through. And I, you know, M2 beyond the base M2 processor, this is the year for that, obviously. so i i do think it'll be you know the revision of the macbook pro that we've been expecting and i do think they're going to do the the mac mini revision as well where they're going to get that intel mac mini out of there at last yeah it's time

so if we imagine all that stuff that's the boring stuff let's talk about the more exciting stuff okay so i'm going to give a rundown of the things that you've predicted, right? So in the boring stuff, we'll include an update to the 24-inch iMac. The exciting stuff is... Actually, I'm going to just say that's risky, right? Mark Gurman is skeptical about the 24-inch iMac getting an update and keeps saying that it's not going to be updated until an M3, which I don't believe. I just don't believe it.

But M3 could still be in 2023. It could be. Yeah, I wonder. It could be, though. But they could sit on that. Do you think they will do it this year? You think they will do it? I predicted that they will, yeah.

So if we also, actually, let's also lump in the Mac Pro in the boring part because like we kind of know about it um and are expecting it and apple have effectively told us it's coming there's a few things that you uh were pretty you were pretty firm on that you think are going to happen imac pro larger macbook air and an updated studio display with micro led and promotion yeah that's pretty bold there's some pretty bold predictions right there i want to believe and an updated studio display with micro LED and ProMotion. Yeah. That's pretty bold. That's some pretty bold predictions right there.

I want to believe. I think the Mac Pro is going to happen. I don't know what form it'll take, right? I mean, it's going to be, the rumors are, you know, it's not going to have that quad chip. It's going to just have an M2 Max, basically, or M2 Ultra. M2 Ultra, right right but that's it display yeah i'm gonna take my shot there because i've you know i i spent the last five years predicting a standalone display

from apple and in year five i got it right so uh what do i do with that uh start predicting the next one i guess but i just i keep feeling like there is going to be the Pro Display XDR is now based on kind of old tech that's been surpassed in Apple's product line by the MacBook Pro. It feels like there's room for something above the studio display that is not the current Pro Display XDR. There is some suggestion that this is being worked on. It's unclear when it's going to come out. There is some suggestion that this is being worked on. It's unclear when it's going to come out, but I feel like the year that the MacBook Pro comes,

or the Mac Pro comes out, would not be a bad time for them to refresh that studio, or refresh the Pro Display XDR, or replace it with something different. So this is kind of a catch-all of, I'm not sure whether they're going to replace the Pro Display XDR, or whether they're just going to do a fancier 27-inch display that's, XDR quality but I feel like they're going to do something and do you imagine that this display would be the display that would also be in an iMac pro oh if it's a 27 inch

uh promotion fancy display then yes and so that might be a thing that they wait and do do you think they would do this together or do you think they would split that apart it it's possible and that wasn't officially part of my prediction right but i feel like that having that as a differentiator about an i'm a true imac pro has the the super fancy screen. I could also see them not doing that, right? I could also see them using the equivalent of the... The thing about the studio display is it's the old 27-inch. It's iMac display, right? So if they're going to do a new iMac Pro, why would they not have it be truly pro if they're going to call it that especially, and it's going to be big and fancy? if they're going to call it that especially and it's going to be big uh and fancy why would you not have the new display tech i don't know about the sequence there i'm not sure that it matters

i don't think you there's any reason if you've got a standalone display ready to go i'm not sure there's any reason to hold off until the imac pro in order to launch it like you could do one in front of the other and i don't think it matters i I'm not sure if I'm as strong on iMac Pro now as I was when the iMac came out as like as a product that they'll do. The Mac Studio is the wrinkle and it's not that I think that one replaces the other. It's just how many Mac models do they want?

You know, like that's a lot of models. Yeah, I agree. I just think it's very strange that they sold a 27 inch imac for years and years and years and years and now they don't yes i agree i think that they have to do that now maybe it's a 27 inch imac and it's not an imac pro although again in terms of modern apple terminology calling it imMac Pro and making it more expensive feels like more what modern Apple would do. But who knows, right? I mean, maybe they've decided that the best thing to do is to use the existing screen technology and make a larger iMac that's got an M2 Pro option and it's just a bigger iMac or something like that, right? And it's not that

big a deal. But if they decide, the real question is like, if they're going to do a bigger iMac, how far up do they push that in terms of the cost and in terms of the features? But I feel like there's got to be one. And so I decided to put my stake in the ground in these predictions and say that they will call it Pro and it will have the higher end processors. Display-wise, i think it's an open question right because that might add so much cost to the product that it's not worth it for them at the same time i could see them really arguing like if you if you want to do pro work pro photography work or whatever the imac pro has got your back because it's doing hdr etc etc

and while we're talking about screen size changes or increases, you feel pretty confident about this larger MacBook Air. Yeah, I mean, Mark Gurman has reported that that is, I believe he's reported it's forthcoming and Ming-Chi Kuo has reported that it's forthcoming. Feels right to me, the 15-inch MacBook Air. Like, they've got the new MacBook Air design, which is really nice. the 15 inch MacBook Air, like they've got the new MacBook Air design, which is really nice. A larger one of that fills that gap between the $2,000 MacBook Pros and the existing MacBook Airs for people who want a bigger display, right? Because to get a bigger display and have to pay $2,000 and get all this other stuff, the ports, the processors, the HDR display, all really nice, but not everybody really wants that.

If all you want is a little bigger screen, you're buying a lot of other stuff. And so having a 15 inch, uh, air, not only does that make sense in terms of, I mean, the reports say that it's going to happen and it makes sense to me. I think that it's a, it's a good fit. But Hey, Jason, what if people just buy the MacBook air because it's the cheapest one? I know, right? We just spoke about this. We'll wait two years and find out what they do. Yes, I think that it's a question. I think it's a really good question. My bet is that laptop dynamics are different from phone dynamics, but it's a really good question, right? How many of these assumptions we've made about Apple strategy are going to be upended by Apple meeting the market and realizing

that that strategy doesn't extend further than they've already extended it. So that's possible. It's possible. The report suggests they're going to try it. It is, I think, something worth watching because maybe they do a 15-inch MacBook air and discover people don't want it maybe maybe they do discover that but i like the idea of having a bigger screen that doesn't cost two grand speaking of 15 inch screens in new products let's jump over to the ipad you seem very i think wildly confident uh that the ipad pro will see no update this year. There'll be like no other significant updates for the iPad in general, except for a 15-inch model that will either be called the iPad Pro or the iPad Studio. Well, we should start by saying the iPad Air is due for an update.

So I'm sure there will be an iPad Air update of some kind. It's not going to be significant though, right? But I can't imagine it being particularly significant. No, I decided to go with this. But again, there's no money at stake here, right? I take no risks in making these predictions. I just want to be clear about that. So my rationale here in picking this is,

first off, there's nothing happening on the iPad otherwise, which is really boring. We saw what happened with the iPad Pro, where it got an update that feels very much like not the update Apple wanted to make. But I don't think the chip cycle is going to work or the product cycle is going to work for them to do another iMac Pro this fall. I think it's going to have to wait until next spring. However, I'm reminded of when they did the initial ipad pro and it came in the 12.9 inch model only and it was out there in front and then they later they did uh an 11 inch model or well actually they did a what they did a smaller model 10.5 and then later they they updated it further

i think it may have started with 9.7 and then it parted 9.7 and then, yeah. Oh, you know, it's that little one has, has grown. Right. So the precedent is they started with a big one and I thought like, there's some rumbling about them wanting to do a bigger iPad. And I thought there is a scenario that kind of makes sense where maybe even

the design language that they intended on being in the iPad Pro for the M2 generation that seems to have not happened. Maybe it will be ready. And the logical thing to do, since it's not time to update the iPad Pros that just came out, but you could do a new model that also uses that design language that you could put out in the fall and it would lead the way. And then the other ones would, would come in the spring. And so that was when I started thinking that actually is a scenario that kind of might make sense where you get something for the iPad. And I like the idea of a big iPad, maybe with a third generation Apple pencil and a bunch of new iPad tech.

And the first time we see it, it's in this iPad with, and with new accessories, right? And it's beyond the pencil. And it's something we haven't seen before. Um, and then in the spring, the rest of the iPad pro line catches up. I, I, I like that scenario. So scenario so uh since there are no penalties for these predictions and there's no money riding on it i decided i was going to go with it and i am intrigued do you think that this is a so let's say pro studio whatever if it's if it's the studio do you think that it is like positioned above the ip Pro? Like where is this sitting in the line? Especially as you say, you think it's going to get things that the,

no other iPad has right now. So where does that sit though? Like above? Above. And do you think it would always be above? I don't know. I mean, what I hedge on is whether they call this Pro or Studio.

Well, either way, right? I guess it could sit above. Unless they're getting rid of the iPad Air, right? I feel like either way, it's bigger than the iPad Pro with more features. So it's going to be more expensive than the 12.9-inch iPad Pro. Yes. I could imagine this product existing. I'm not sure that 2023 is it but i would be very excited to see it well as you know as i just explained i think part of my motivation here

is that there's not a lot of ipad story happening yeah and this would be a really interesting ipad story without having to change the timing of the rest of the product line is to basically throw what will ultimately be the next generation of design language and features and accessories. This one model comes out in late 23 ahead of the rest of the line kind of picking it up starting in 24. So that was the thought process. If it felt like there was a normal iPad process going on this year, I might not have made this wild prediction, but it feels real quiet, right? Like almost too quiet.

And here's what I'll say about iPadOS, Apple and iPadOS. I think iPad Studio is maybe just a better brand for the more expensive iPad than iPad Pro because I think Apple has decided or not decided to really make iPad like Pro in the ways that Pro users want it to be, right? We spoke about this for years. But what the ipad's

really good at is creating stuff especially art right visual things maybe studio is just a better brand for the more expensive ipad than pro is i mean maybe but i don't know if i entirely agree i mean i think what the ipad is great at is changing what it is based on how you use it. I'm also not ready to give up on the idea that Apple needs to bring its pro apps to the iPad. I do think that that needs to happen. But it's true. This is a self-inflicted wound. If they had called it iPad Studio all along... But those pro apps are creative apps, right? They're creative apps, so it would fit just as nicely. Sure. But like video editing is, you know, a very different thing than drawing, but both could benefit from a larger screen. Also, you throw in the fact that they've got external

display support now, which is kind of an interesting quirk. I wonder if they might do a new keyboard trackpad case thing that was, you know again would point the way to the future of that on the other models i don't know i mean what apple thinks of the ipad is a is an interesting question um and whether those pro apps i didn't predict that the pro apps would come i think right like that i mean because you gotta give it up at some point do that yeah here's one that genuinely surprised me um well it wouldn't be a fun column if i didn't surprise that's the point that's the point gotta entertain people you expect that the iphone 15 will look a lot like the iphone 14 but will get the dynamic island you

seem very confident on that yep yep i am not a believer in the theory that the dynamic island is going to be withheld for a long time i'm the theory that the dynamic island is going to be withheld for a long time. I'm a believer that the dynamic island is too good a feature to keep away from half of the iPhone product line. I can see it. Like, I feel like I agree with you that it's going to happen. All the tech is there, right? They use all the displays. Like in theory, you could do it. It would just, whilst I would completely understand it, I think it may also surprise me. It's just the next year that they do it, but, you know, maybe they just go for it, right? I think, I mean, this isn't high-tech stuff.

It is literally just a different cutout for the sensors. Yeah. And I think Dynamic Island is too central. Here's the thing. If Apple likes the Dynamic Island, they need to make the effort to get it everywhere, right? The, the,

how you, how you don't popularize an OS feature is by withholding it from a large portion of your product line. What you want is you want that feature everywhere so that all software supports it. And it becomes a key differentiator in your platform. And you don't do that by withholding it from the iPhone 15 and keeping it only on the pro. So, and the cost is nothing essentially, because it's just changing your

existing cutout. And the benefit is that everybody can rely on there being a dynamic island. And yeah, what you're losing is the people who only go to the Pro because of the Dynamic Island. But there are plenty of other reasons to go to the Pro. Dynamic Island does not need to be a differentiator in the long run. So I think they'll end that differentiation immediately. But there could be a cost this time. So we'll get to the iPhone 15 Ultra in a moment and where you think that might go.

But let's imagine, you know, we can just say for the moment, that's going to be the exciting one, right? Yeah. And if the iPhone 15 gets to Dynamic Island, you've mentioned you don't think much would happen to the iPhone 15 Pro. Could that not be a risk to the iPhone 15 Pro if that doesn't actually get much of a big jump

and then the Ultra is really exciting? The iPhone 15 gets the dynamic island does that not kind of make the iphone 15 pro uh less attractive which would be a risk because it sells really well i don't think so i think only marginally like okay i i think the appeal of the pro is probably in the materials and it's in the cameras. I don't think it's in the dynamic island. I'm not, I,

in the long run, I am not a believer that there are going to be large numbers of people who would otherwise have bought a pro and the only reason, or otherwise would have bought a non pro, but only reason they went to the pro is because of the dynamic island. I don't think there's enough of them to offset the desire that Apple should have to get the Dynamic Island everywhere on iOS as soon as it can, because it's cool. What is your stake in the ground for the features of the iPhone 15 Ultra? iPad Studio Theory, which is, I feel like the 15 Pro is going to stay looking similar and not get the complete revamp because they're going to put all their effort into the Ultra, very much the story of the Apple Watch. So there'll be an iPhone 15 Ultra. It'll look different. It'll have a new

camera system. It'll be kind of like the iPhone 10, right? Where it's like, this is not your old iPhone. We're doing very different things here. And this is the first place to get it. Also has the advantage of like the rumors about them doing the periscope camera and all of that. The idea there is you might start that in a larger phone because you need the space to do that sort of thing. So yeah, that's the little narrative that I've woven for myself is that the iPhone 15 and 15 Pro will progress along, but the real big story will be the Ultra, which will look different and have a bunch of features that no other iPhone has. Do you think they might go to titanium? Everything is on the table, right?

Yeah. There are nice things about titanium especially that it's light right and the stainless is so heavy on those iphone pros they're so heavy so sure that would be that's a possibility i guess it depends on if they can color it i think that would be an important element right i think it would be difficult if i don't know one color do you think remember if the ultra well i mean they could color they could color the glass though yeah and not the metal right and and keep in mind this ultra the pro already is almost colorless so the ultra could be completely colorless just a silver black phone

the iphone 10 right was just one color i think it was all silver yeah um they made that work yeah it it so this is the this is the question but i i'm kind of liking the idea that they're gonna uh again they'll change the colors they might change the the look a little bit of the 15 and the 15 Pro. They could always change the metal finish and all of that to make them look a little bit different. But I think that my theory here is that what if the Ultra is where they put their resources this time? And as with my big iPad theory, the rest of the line catches up later. MR has corrected me in the Discord that the iPhone X had two different colors for the rails. There are two different titanium shades on the Apple Watch.

So you could do something like that. It's very much that we offer two color choices. There's dark gray and black. Thanks, Apple. That's exactly what we expected from you. like thanks apple that's exactly what we expected from you this is the thing i'm most excited for right now for this year is the iphone 15 ultra what that might be um i think it could be really exciting right that like it has a new design new designs are always fun and this new potential new camera system which you know could be leaps and bounds uh different. I'm excited about what they might do with that product. I think that's

maybe the product that feels the most tangible to me and so I'm pretty excited about it. One of the intangible ones I think we'll get to in a little bit but the iPhone 15 Ultra I'm really keen to see what that might end up looking like. In wearables you are speaking straight to my heart and predicting a completely redesigned AirPods Max. Yep. It's time, right? Like that product's been out there for a while.

The 1.0 product was disappointing in a bunch of ways and needs to be revised, right? It needs a better case. It needs, you know, like there are some design aspects of it that need to be better. It's time to take it, what they've learned from the first couple of years of that product, and revise it to be a little bit better fit. And it may even be to be less expensive to make, regardless of what they do with the price, because they will have learned a lot, I assume, over the last couple of years about what an AirPods Max should be. But it feels like it's time, right, for a new version of that?

Well, I mean, I agree. I want it. I think the fundamentals of the product is good. It sounds great. The noise cancellation is great. It's good. But they messed it up in a couple of ways. Too heavy, too expensive, and not portable enough you know the case is terrible the fact you can't collapse it like i think they they i think they should look to and i hope they will fix those three issues and they will have i think a much bigger success on their hands um with with an

airpods max 2 and i really hope that this is something that they're working on because I like this product in their lineup. I don't use my AirPods Max a lot, but when I do use them, I really want that product to do the best it can do, right? Like traveling and stuff like that. I want the best it can be. And that is the best that AirPods can be for me in those environments. Although I will say AirPods Pro 2 is unbelievable how good the noise cancellation is, right, as we mentioned in the upgrades episode. You know, I tested that out on the last plane trip that I took

and was really surprised at comparatively how well they do. But I would love to see them take everything they've learned on AirPods Pro 2 and apply that to AirPods Max 2 plus difference in the hardware you predict the action button is going to come to the regular apple watch well what's left to do with the apple watch right like the apple watch is largely a redesign jason

that's what they can do i don't think i mean i'm not going to predict it i feel like that they're gonna ride this a little longer i'm not going to predict it I feel like that they're gonna ride this a little longer I'm not going to predict that thing it'll happen eventually and I'll be surprised by it when it happens because I feel like they're going to keep riding this horse I think another thing they could do is I mean maybe it'll be tweak design wise I I'm going to repeat what I've been saying all along which is the high-end products lead the way in a lot of cases for the rest of the line. And so in this case, again, look to the Apple Watch Ultra and say, oh, it's got that action button. We could add an action button to the existing Apple Watch.

We could maybe change the look of it and have it have a little bit more Ultra-like look without it really being a radical reinvention of the Apple Watch. And that's my guess, is that the regular Apple Watch will pick up some features from the Ultra. You didn't mention anything about the Ultra itself. Do you think they'll update the Ultra this year? If they do, it won't be interesting.

Huh. Yeah. Huh. Yep, that's my prediction and quote something not quote but like i something new in the home something give me something anything a device show me a sign of life right because i don't know which one like there's a whole bunch of different rumors out there of things that they've they've been experimenting with will any of them come to fruition but i decided like there's got to be something, right? I'm willing to bet, at least for now, that one of the holdups in Apple's home strategy is that they need to get into the thread world. That once the thread thing is working, they can just release the hounds, right? They can open the floodgates and out pour all the apple like one just one home pod uh with uh you know home pod

with a screen for facetime or a soundbar apple tv home pod combo or something right like something to show us that you care about the home in some way that's all i'm really asking. And I'd mentioned an intangible thing, which is the headset. It's like we have an idea of what it might be. We pretty much feel like we know it's coming. This year, it feels very confident. It's like the Apple Watch

and when the Apple Watch is introduced, there are a lot of things this product could be. What mix do they end up landing on right right for when it really when they release it and this seems like a real easy prediction except that i will say after i wrote this article a couple weeks later um i saw a prediction piece that said apple won't release the headset this year. And I like, I get the argument. I forget who made it, but I forget whoever it was. The argument was, it sure feels like a developer release. It sure feels overpriced and overpowered.

Maybe where they will end up is shipping something as a developer preview, not, it doesn't sound like Apple to sell that product to mainstream consumers. And we've been saying that all along, right? And yet it seems like that's their intent, is to sell a $2,000 plus headset that is the best you could possibly buy, but not something that a lot of regular people are going to buy. And yet somehow with that very expensive product, evangelize developers to devote time to develop apps for a thing that is probably not going to sell that well because it's so expensive.

It doesn't really make sense. And yet all the indications are that they are doing that. So my prediction is that I think they are, although I think it's possible that this will change. My prediction is that they will ship it, but what they're going to do is they're going to announce it in the spring. They're going to evangelize its development at WWDC and possibly give developers some access to something that they can develop on. It will ship later in the summer.

And my other prediction that's just out of the blue, but I'm going to throw it in there, which is I think they're going to get it under $2,000. Despite all the reports that it's going to be more than $2,000. I think the solution to the how do they ship this product when it's too expensive and nobody will buy it? I got to be honest. I think the solution is going to be that they're going to eat it. They're going to eat the margins. They should. If they care about it.

That's right. If they think this is a long-term play for them, they're going to have to forego their traditional profit margins in order to hit that price point. And they're not going to like it. But I think that may be their only way out here. Unless they really do pull a bunch of features off of it and we get those reports over the next few months that they've like they've they've decontented this

thing down to a lower price such a bad idea like they gotta eat it they gotta do i think so the games consoles do you gotta just eat it and you'll make the money later you're gonna make a great product you're gonna you want to evangelize developers you believe this is your future you know what you do i'm not even saying to sell it at a loss but i'm saying sell it at very little profit in order to get that price to somewhere where you think that it's actually going to sell because step one here is not reap enormous profits from incredibly profitable uh high margin device right step one is sell a lot of them. That's the truth of it. Sell a lot of them.

It doesn't have to be a $300 headset. I'm not saying that, but I'm saying if you can sell it for $2,500 and make a very comfortable margin, or you can sell it for $1,800 and make almost nothing on the hardware, I think the move is to make almost nothing on the hardware because the goal here is long-term, not short-term. And you need developers. The piece that is so important here is this is going to take developer support. It really is. And developers, especially given how Apple has treated its developers the last few years, I would say developers aren't going to invest a lot of time into your platform, your brand new, apparently very important strategically platform. If they're developing

it for an audience of no one, right? You've got to give them an audience and saying, invest now and in two or three years, right? You'll start making money on our platform. It's not going to work. It's not going to work. It's not going to work. It'll work for some, like, people who are really hardcore Apple indie developers and they just love doing stuff for Apple. Okay. But, like, you need to build this platform. You really need people to rush into it and want to support it.

And the only way you can really do that is by selling units. You got to sell units. you can really do that is by selling units you got to sell units i'm really hoping that this product has an almost original ipad like price surprise remember like everyone was like it's going to cost over a thousand dollars there's just no way and then bang 500 and it was like whoa you know that i really hope that they find some way to make that work because that would be cool. And in thinking about this column, that's essentially where I came to,

is I don't see how this works based on what we've read in the reports. And so that makes me feel like that pricing can't stand. Right. That that's the piece here where it's like, yeah, but how do you,

how do you come out with a $2,000, $2,500 thing and pricing? You're like, people are reporting the pricing, but it's like, those are, those are people in the supply chain. Those are people like those are sources inside Apple.

But like, as we've said many times here, pricing and marketing is the most, uh, changeable of anything right all it takes is tim cook saying what does it cost to make one of these let's price it at 1500 but sir it costs 1400 to make it it's like yeah but we got to do it we got to do it because we got to look at the competition out there i think something I saw a story the other week about how many more MetaQuests were sold this Christmas season, which would be the third Christmas season for the MetaQuest?

Two? Which is remarkable on one level, right? Because it's like that's an old product. But on another level, it's still a really well-priced product. And I keep looking, you know, I have one and I like it. And I keep looking at it and thinking, you know, the advantage the MetaQuest has is that they've sold a bunch of them. Like, you can actually write software for the MetaQuest and feel like it's successful. Yeah, you can have a success with it.

Yeah. quest and feel like it's successful yeah you can have a success with it yeah and and you got it like you can't you can't build a superior product that nobody writes software for right there are so many examples of that throughout history so that's what i kept kept coming back to in my column as i was writing it is and and you know you and i've talked about it a bunch here and i kept my brain keeps processing like what's the story here? The best I can come up with is that they're going to have to cave on price, and they're going to have to take the hit because this thing can't cost $2,500 because they're not going to sell any of them. And the easiest thing for them to do, painful but easy, is just sell it for a lot less and try to kickstart this market. a lot less and try to kickstart this market. It's either that or you call it a developer preview and you only ship it to developers and say the real one is coming in 2024. And that would be,

I think, a real declaration of failure, but it's a fallback. I think the easier thing to do is to just take the hit on the hardware in order to build your platform one of the worst things that can happen to the headset is it's just like a bunch of ports of quest games like that's it yeah on on an incredibly expensive thing and and a and a lackluster reception from the developer community because keep in mind apple's success in this last decade plus has been, one of the ways that it's been successful is everybody wants to be on the iPhone, especially. Everybody wants to be on that platform. And that's helped make that platform a success.

And the danger is that Apple thinks that, no, no, no, no, people, we make it a success and then they make money on the platform. But that's not how it works. You got to have apps. You got to have software on the platform. And the way you get developers to develop for your platform is that people are there to buy their software. So here we are.

We'll see what happens. I mean, good news is we can just check back in a year and see how we did. No matter how well you slash I have done in this conversation today, I think 2023 is going to be a year packed full of interesting stuff from Apple. I hope so. I'm pretty excited about it. I hope so. Just because there's so much possibility. If they do 50% of it, it will be a big year.

Do you know I saw a stat just before we move on quick that I think I saw some Mac rumors today. This past quarter is the first time in 20 years that apple haven't released a mac like in this time period like in the in the fourth quarter of the year right isn't that wild interesting because this is the time right you would either do it for the holidays or for back to school or whatever, and they didn't do it. Like I said, I feel like we've definitely gotten to the point where pandemic-related and supply chain-related issues have shoved the whole Mac product line back by three, six, nine months, something like that, for sure. Hopefully, we're going to get some of that backlog coming out of it bring it on bring on 2023 clear the backlog get us new stuff to talk about this episode is brought to you by our friends over at fitbod it's a new year this is typically

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Ask Upgrade questions. Lasers still work. They sure do. I just dusted them off for the new year. First comes from Schwerd who asks, It's getting harder and harder

to manage Mac apps. Some come from the App Store. Some come directly from developer websites. Some are available in both places. How do you keep track of where you've got your apps so you don't confuse updates and license keys and all that kind of stuff?

I, with all due respect to Swerd, I don't agree with the premise of this question. Tell me about it. It's harder and harder to manage Mac apps. I just don't see it. I just don't see it. I just don't see it. The App Store has been around for a while now, and it does its updates in its way. And every other app I use has some sort of built-in self-updating system, Sparkle or

something else like it, where it tells me if there's an update, and then I install it. So I don't have any confusion about updates. How do I keep track of where I get apps? Like, I don't understand that. The apps are like, in terms of updates, it'll tell me and otherwise I don't care. License keys, I try to save license keys in one password, but the truth is most of my license keys are in my Gmail. Yeah.

And I search for them, but I just don't, I don't know. Maybe this is me, but I like, I don't have, I don't get confused about my Mac apps. Like I just,

I don't, I just don't. Yeah. What I'll say that i'll agree with schwed is that the fact that it is separated is less than ideal like i wished that everything was all in one place but everything could be all in that one place right like i would like as a user all apps to be in the app store but that it would work for everyone that they are. I would go so far as to say, I wish Apple would make an updates API that would allow any app to register its updates and have them display in the app updates list instead of in each individual app. That would be kind of fun, right? But instead it's used as an app store differentiator. I think what

Swerd is coming from here is that Swerd seems to be somebody who has bought an app from one source, but it's in both places, and that that can be confusing. And I agree that that can be confusing. I generally, if something's available in the Mac App Store and outside the Mac App Store, I generally buy it outside of the Mac App Store. That's generally my policy. So I'm very rarely in a situation where I'm thinking to myself, oh, where did I get this? Where did I not? I am a little more confused by Setapp, former sometimes sponsor of this podcast, which has its own sort of like system. And so sometimes it'll be like, do I own this or is this in Setapp? That does happen from time to time. But again,

how do I keep track of it? I look at the app and say, is there a check for updates here? Or is this in set app? That does happen from time to time. But again, how do I keep track of it? I look at the app and say, is there a check for updates here or is it there? That's it. I don't, otherwise I don't keep track, I guess is my real answer is I don't. I think that it's generally apparent and I can search either purchased items in the app store or in my Gmail or in my licenses in 1Password to find out if I need to do something. But generally, it's just not an issue that's required a solution. Andrew asks, do you think advanced data protection could make restoring a backup more reliable?

In other words, could you imagine more apps would be able to retain their login state when transferring an old phone to a new one. Would be nice. I think what's happening here is that Apple allows developers to set a flag about what gets backed up. And I believe these are app developers saying, I don't want to back that information up. And that's why you have to do reentering later. I believe that's what it is. And it may have to do with their own security or the fact that it's changing to a different piece of hardware and they don't want to have the authentication move with that. It needs to have a new authentication. So what I would say is, I don't know if this will make much of a difference.

I wish that Apple would do a better job of perhaps evangelizing with developers or coming up with a system developers can use to make this easier. What I really like is for them to take advantage of something like maybe pass keys to make it so that I can just biometrically authenticate and I can use that. But something here, I agree, but I don't know if advanced data protection

is going to make much of a difference. Gavin asks, this is for me, really, how was the process of dealing with the upgraded submissions this year you mentioned it was painful in the past as your process changed i didn't change my process at all so the way you write basically the upgradians would vote they put their information into a google form but for all but one question they're just open text fields that people can write into yeah so people write things in varying ways with

maybe it's one thing but they say it like you know it's said in like four different ways like for example spider-man some people would write spider-man some people write spider hyphen man some people might write no way home or whatever you know um and so it requires for me with the way that i do it it's a little bit manual it was quite a lot manual which you know you have to kind of like scroll through things and and change the names and stuff uh basically i've gotten better at this process because i have recently done this for a quiz on connected yeah it's the same process so it was more fresh in my mind and i'd kind of like internalize the way to do it and my little shortcuts of how to make it quicker for me um using clipboard managers and stuff like that to like yeah so it was it's laborsome but

this time this year was the fastest I'd ever done it I did it in a day where usually it takes multiple days for me you're doing the connected quiz which is very similar to the family feud stuff that I've done and it's the same. And I have also gotten much better at it. I use BBEdit for that a lot because I can sort lines and I can also like clip lines containing, but sort lines does a lot of it. Cause you can like, you'll get a lot of things that are spelled differently,

but there's still a block of 84 of them that are all the same essentially. And so I'm able to do that. So I use BBEdit for a lot of that, but it does come better with practice and i was thinking about how since you've done the connected quiz this was going to be easier for you this year so i'm glad it works because i had just done one the week before so like i was like ready to go which ended up being great for me because i i did all the upgrades thing in a day and i thought it

was going to take me much longer and i was like preparing my week for like oh here we go because we recorded it a little bit in advance but no it ended up working out just right and max asks how often do you remember that one time eddie q said i love the new photos i can't wait to do it so this was from wwdc 20 which one is it? 2016. And Eddie was coming onto the stage to talk about something. A car play, I think it was for some reason. And he

was coming on after I think Craig had just shown off photos. Maps. Maps he was introducing. Maps? Okay. I was scanning through it. Maps. It then went on to... Oh, it was all maps. Okay, yeah, it was all maps stuff. Can't wait to do it. It's also fun.

It's like, why was Eddie talking about maps? But as he walked onto the stage, he said... I love the new photos. Can't wait to do it. I love the new photos. I can't wait to do it. Which is just like this little slip up. But I think about this and still use this phrase all the time.

And I had forgotten where it came from. So I was actually pretty happy uh to get this question today because i was reminded of i can't wait to do it my answer is it's a road trip it's road trip baby that's one of my favorite weird things where they had uh they were they were entering into a like a presentation program and they were they were entering into a presentation program and they were typing our road trip or something. Utah. Oh, Utah road trip. And it auto-corrected it to its.

So it was its road trip. And it's in the whole demo. And I believe that one, they actually went back and changed the video. Is that right? For the released video, it was amended to Utah road trip. But we all remember it as It's Road Trip.

You can buy an It's Road Trip t-shirt now, apparently. It just makes me laugh. It's Road Trip. If you know, you know. Oh, so good. I can't wait to do it. Can't wait to do it. Oh, man.

Can't wait to do it. What is it? What is it? Oh, Eddie, you're the best. The new photos. You got to do the new photos, babe. It's like Eddie's just being very Hollywood there. Oh, Eddie, you're the best. The new photos. You're doing the new photos, babe. It's like Eddie's just being very Hollywood there.

Like, yeah, can't wait to do it. If you would like to send in a question for us to answer on the show. How? How do you do it? I don't know. Well, there is a selection of ways. You can tweet with the hashtag AskUpgrade. You can use question mark AskUpgrade. Or some point after this episode is released,

you can go to our website or just click a link in the show notes, go to the show page, there'll be a button called Feedback and you can send in your feedback there. Again, we will give better instructions on this next week once the feature is hopefully shipped. But that will be a great way to send in

all kinds of feedback, including your Snow Talk and AskUpgrade questions for those of you that aren't on Twitter anymore will be a great way to send in all kinds of feedback, including your Snow Talk and Ask Upgrade questions. For those of you that aren't on Twitter anymore, and this is too complicated to do on Mastodon, but the Discord is great. Question mark, ask, upgrade. We'll send those questions in.

Please do, by the way. I think because people have left Twitter, I have less Ask Upgrade questions this time than I would normally do. So, you know, help us out. I have less Ask Upgrade questions this time than I would normally do. So, you know, help us out. Help your friendly neighborhood podcast host out and send in your Ask Upgrade questions however you send them. Okay, I'll do it.

If you would like to keep in touch with us, see what we're up to, in the meantime, until next week's episode, you go to sixcolors.com for Jason's work. Jason's furiously typing lots of at symbols into our show.com. Yeah, I'm just,

if you've made the move to Mastodon and you haven't followed me there, you can. I actually am there. I am at jsnill at mastodon.social. So you can know.

See, that's the part that frustrates me. Is it, you have to do the at Mastodon, like you have to say the server. Like this is not good, right? It's not great right can we all agree that it's not good you know what is good is that i'm six colors at mastodon.social as well

i'm not bleed six colors like i am on twitter because there was a club in guadalajara mexico that registered it and posted four tweets like eight years ago and then stopped and i can never ever ever ever get that username on mastodon.social just six colors yeah it's great and the incomparable at mastodon.social too i got all my bots posting now got all my bots posting to mastodon i got bots posting to twitter too which means i don't have to do it this was although i still i still poke in on twitter a little bit but i'm not one of the things that I'm no longer needing to do is post like the show to Twitter as much. I need to do that for an upgrade too. I'm still handcrafting those tweets, but that's going to have to stop.

Zach is saying, I have to save the server for my email address too in the Discord. And it's like, I know that. But it's long is the thing. What I'm saying is going from, I'm at jsnow on on Twitter to I'm at jsnow at mastodon.social. It's just like, it's clunky. I don't like it. And it's just also confusing because it's so much to remember. You have to know how to spell all of those things.

Like, for example, I can never spell mastodon correctly. No, you always put an A in there, don't you? I always. How do you know that? I mean, I do. That's what I do too. I'm a good speller and I can't spell mastodon right yeah no which is for twitter i can spell it way too much at mastodon m-a-s-t-o-o-d-o-n dot social it's just like it's too much it's too much what i would do

if i was on mastodon is i would just create a url that forwards to my thing. Now the show is over. But I'm not going to do any of that. If you want to find me, in the meantime, I'm on a bunch of podcasts. You go to MikeHurley.net and see everything I'm doing. And it is that time of year. Go to themesystem.com and learn about yearly themes. Buy yourself a theme

system journal. Or go to Mike Hurley's house. You go to 123 England Avenue. that is where where i live london england yeah uk great britain not europe don't please don't come to my house and uh don't go to that address because i'm not no i mean i'm not saying come to your house i'm saying go to your door and leave your message in a piece of paper foot of the door not really into that part so okay well then go to mike's mailboxes etc at 124 england street do you know that mailboxes etc is the thing do you was that like a thing like do you know about this mailbox etc what about it it's the

store yeah we have them in the uk you have them too yeah wow look at that international brand i didn't know that yeah i think maybe they got bought by ups i think maybe they're the ups store now instead but they were mailboxes etc see how much harder it is to outro the show now that twitter's gone away for many red sky at night yes we'll be back next week until then sailors delight say goodbye jason's now goodbye everybody this is what 2023 is on upgrade i guess