Upgrade - 487: Under the Thumb of Qualcomm

Episode Date: November 20, 2023

from relay fm this is upgrade episode 487 for november 20th 2023 my name is mike hurley i'm joined by jason snell but i'll introduce him in a moment because first i must thank fitbod electric text expander and vitally for their support of this episode hello jason that was a weird intro wasn't it sometimes you get up ahead of yourself you know and you're just you know i often refer to this uh a lot in business and life you're familiar with the wallace and gromit meme where gromit is put in the tracks down when he's on the train you've probably seenit meme where gromit is put in the tracks down when he's on the train you've probably seen this meme right so he's just like laying him down sometimes when

i'm recording a show that's what it's like like i'm just saying things i don't know what i'm going to say i don't know if that there is that much thought in my brain before i say it but i'm just talking and that's sometimes where i end up with i have a snow talk question for you comes from jason another one called what kind of uniform does jason wear for curling oh i don't there's i don't wear a uniform there's no team there's no team jersey i no no okay i don't have anything like that the club does have like jackets that you can get um that i may i am getting one of those see see there's a uniform it's a club jacket it's not a uniform some people get them and they keep them warm and they wear them sometimes but it's not a uniform okay no the key things you have to know about clothing for curling is you can't you need to

wear something that sort of uh works with uh ice So like blue jeans are not good for that. And so I wear some of those, you know those Mack Weldon sweatpants that you like, Mike? The Ace sweatpants. That's my part of my curling uniform, I guess. And then I actually have, so there's a lot of Mack Weldon in there. I actually have a thermal that Mack Weldon makes,

a little thin thermal layer. It's like a shirt, like a long sleeve shirt. And I wear that. And then over that, I wear something else, usually a uniform of some sort, but not a curling uniform. See, there's so many uniforms. A jersey, a sports jersey of some sort. Let's giant usually what i wear over that so i have a giants let's go i have i have some

cal stuff and i have a beautiful throwback san jose sharks jersey that looks like um the california golden seals that they wore last season the retro uh remix uh sweater for the sharks and Seals that they wore last season, the retro remix sweater for the Sharks. And I wear that. I'm about to enter the season where I will wear that because I do sort of like cycle through based on Giants, Cal, and the hockey season. I care very little for hockey, but wearing a hockey jersey on ice seems like a good idea.

And that jersey is beautiful. So I wear that one. You said no uniforms, but by my count, you have three distinct uniforms. What uniforms do I not wear? Yeah, if anything, you are too uniformed. But they're not uniforms

because they're only the jerseys. Then there's just Mack Weldon sweatpants. But it depends, right? So the jerseys are a uniform, just not the uniform of your team. You wear the same clothes. They're part of a uniform.

Part of a uniform. Yeah, okay. So it's part of the uniform for for a different sport that you're not a part of you wear specific clothing every single time which i would consider to be a uniform and then you're also buying a team jacket this sounds like very not a team jacket a club jacket what difference does that make that's because you play on teams of four and our team doesn't have a jacket or a uniform. There's just people who are members of the club can wear the jacket that says, I'm a member of the club.

Shirts like a bowling team gets. We're not that competitive, honestly. We're not competitive enough to do that. Yeah. So anyway, that's my non-answer answer for not Jasonason jason if you would like to send in a question where jason says no and then answers for 15 minutes about the actual answer which is yes you could send in your question to snell talk over upgradefeedback.com and you could help us

start a show i would like to take a moment to reference the Upgradees again. You can make your nominations for the 10th annual Upgradees until December 5th at upgradees.vote. Please go there and fill in as many questions as you like. You don't have to fill out the whole form if you don't want to. None of the questions are mandatory. And let us know what your favorite apps have been this year. Games, movies, TV shows, books, podcasts, and so much more. You can go to upgradies.vote is where you can submit that, and then maybe you'll help influence

the awards given in the 10th annual Upgradies, of which the artwork has been generated and is incredible. I'm very happy with the theme that we've gone through this year. We have a very good episode on that. I'm excited to share with people when the 10th annual Upgradees will be published on December 18th. It's nearly that time, Jason. I'm very excited. We're coming very close to that time now, right? I get very excited at Upgradees time when we're nearly there.

Looking forward. It's the start of the holidays, and the start of the holidays usually means deals. And oh boy, do we have a deal for you. Is it a Black Friday deal? I mean, it is a Black Friday deal

in the sense that Black Friday now extends for multiple weeks. And here at RelayFM, we are jumping on the deals bandwagon. TGIF. If you like this show and you've heard us talk about Upgrade Plus before and you thought to yourself, I would like to hear no ads and I would also like the bonus content, but I would like to pay less. Well, until December 15th, you can get 20% off an annual plan. So if you sign up for an annual plan, you get 20% off. So you get it for just $40. You can get an entire year of Upgrade

Plus by using the code HOLIDAYS2024 at checkout when you go to getupgradeplus.com. You can also give this as a gift to people or if maybe someone wants to buy you a gift for the holidays, you can give them the URL, give relay.com, where you'll be able to find out more information. So you can go to give relay.com and you can find out more about the gifting, or you can just go to get upgrade plus.com, sign up for upgrade plus and use the code holidays, 2024 at checkout, and you will get 20% off your first year of an annual plan this is the perfect time to jump in i'm very excited for today's upgrade plus where jason has a bunch of questions about time tracking for me and i cannot wait to see what they are and if i can help jason with his time tracking needs but if you sign up for upgrade plus you get access to a ton of benefits you get access

to obviously say ad free longer episodes of the show each and every single week access to a ton of benefits you get access to obviously say ad free longer episodes of the show each and every single week access to relay fm members discord hundreds of hours of bonus content going back all the way uh from i don't know 2014 2015 when we started doing our member specials every year and you also will be able to go back and listen to all of the upgrade plus segments from all of the other episodes that we've done all the way back to June 2020. So there's tons of stuff there for you and you can get 20% off right now. Jason, we've got a lot of follow-up. Now, a lot of follow-up. We've got a lot of follow-up where people were angry at you. That's fine. I've picked out some of that and we're going to talk about that later on okay most

of it people were just mad and so it didn't really feel like i wanted to bring that to the show but there's some where people have got some points about the m3 pro but before we have some fun stuff in follow-up today the first this is very interesting comes from dr warren dr warren writes in and says i am an auditory neuroscientist, and I have a quick comment on hearing aids for you, and why a lot of people resist wearing them, which is something we were talking about last time. It is not just people being stubborn. It can take several weeks for your brain to get used to a hearing aid, as your brain now has different input and needs to adapt to its responses. My dad, says Dr. Warren, expected them to be like glasses,

an instant fix, but they are not. You have to wear them every day for six to 16 weeks. There are other reasons, but I insist to my family, stick with it. It eventually helps. I appreciate that.

I think what we were talking about is more the initial resistance, which is people resist even the process of getting them but it's interesting to hear that that's not even the only hurdle because once you get them you still have to stick with them yep interesting i had no idea about that but i guess it kind of makes sense but i would have just assumed it was just like glasses right that like it's just correct i mean there. There could be adaptations for glasses too,

but it doesn't take 16 weeks for your eyes to adapt to glasses. Maybe just get some headaches for a little bit. So we mentioned on the last episode that, and as it's specifically mentioned, I was surprised that I feel like we haven't heard about a lot of developer kits going out into the wild. And we put a call out for some anonymous feedback to be given, and we have three pieces of anonymous

feedback. From person number one says, I was talking to somebody off the record about a week ago who told me that they had a developer kit for the Vision Pro. This is a developer whose app and themselves personally has been featured in several ipad related promotional videos and even live demo events since the launch of the ipad pro i'll just say if they were talking to you off the record you're not supposed to share that with a podcast but thank you for the information anonymous person yep well you know they shared it off the record with me but i put it on the record you know because i can't be trusted no that's not true that's just how that's not that's not it that's not it they sent this in and then reported they're the ones who are reporting something that was off the record yep so it's now on the record

another person says dev kits are in devs hands can confirm as i work an organization that has one now this is the kind of thing i'd expected big. But that first one was even more interesting to me because it's like, oh, that is an individual, it sounds like, right? Like a very small team. The last one says, I can confirm that Vision Pro development kits have gone out, at least the large companies. In some cases, Apple is working with some of these companies

to get more feedback on the software stack than we are used to in the community. From what I've heard from those who have used it, the hardware is pretty finalized but there are software rough edges. Sounds about right. Yep. I heard the hardware was pretty finalized a long time ago. Long, long time ago. And it's just

getting the software together. It's not going to get your favorite chip, the M3, you know. But our friend James says he still doesn't have one, so James did not pass the audition, I guess. On the M3 Pro, so this is the feedback where people were angry about you talking about Pro last week. That's fine. I was given some tough love.

I was given some cold water. I figured the people wouldn't appreciate it. That's fine. Sometimes, you know, what we can get on this show is Jason's going to hold the mirror up, you know, and you're going to have to take a look at yourself.

That's what you get around here sometimes. You know, you're just going to have to take a long, hard look at yourself. I'm not always here to agree with you. Indeed. Drew says, I don't think the complainers are idealists. They just think that Apple is trading

reputation for a 38% margin. A computer that literally crashes doing basic multimedia tasks is not a good look, especially when the 16 gigabyte model handles those tasks with ease. Also, consumers don't need to be geeks to price compare other brands. I mean, I don't, I don't agree, but you know. I think Drew's taking some leaps here. I don't know what this crashes doing basic multimedia tasks. I don't know where this is coming from.

If every base model MacBook Pro literally crashed doing basic multimedia tasks, I think that would be a gate, right? What I get is a lot of arguments of, but if you have a lot of Chrome tabs on it, it gets slower, which is true. Not quite the same. And then Apple trading reputation for margin. I don't know what to tell you. First off, reputation with whom? And secondly, Apple always is going to get its margins. And that's been the case forever. I'll just say, because I have a lot of perspective on this, that's a nice way of saying I've been doing this a very long time. People have been complaining about Apple space models being not what they think they should be for decades. Now it doesn't mean that it's not frustrating, but the,

I do think sometimes saying trading reputation for margin is overwrought because Apple's reputation is still pretty good. But I get it. I mean, I get, I get what they're saying. People don't, I get it.

I also... Drew's statement, also consumers don't need to be geeks to price compare with other brands. Everybody price compares. Apple's laptops are more expensive compared to other brands. Apple's been playing that game

for a long time too. If the argument is, well, people aren't going to buy the MacBook Pro base model because they're going to see eight gigs of RAM and price compare it with a Dell and buy a Dell. It's like, okay, were they going to buy a Dell anyway? Like, I don't know what to tell you. I get what you're saying, but some of these examples seem a little bit of a stretch for me and are missing the point.

Justin says, Apple is hurting their reputation. are missing the point. Justin says, Apple is hurting their reputation. With Apple sticking two 8GB of RAM and 256GB of storage in the low end, it's hurting their brand. Look at places like Costco and Amazon. They usually only carry the low-end SKU. For those that buy a Mac from those places, they are probably not having the best experience. Okay, Amazon carries all the SKUs, so that's not right. In terms of Costco, you buy a Mac at Costco, you expect to have the best experience and Apple's reputation is tarnished because the Costco Mac that's on sale for cheap isn't the best experience. It's an experience. It's probably a good experience for the buyer who's buying a Mac at Costco

that they would, because they're getting a deal on it. Yeah. I mean, again, I'm not surprised by these arguments. I just don't agree. And I think that they're stretching it in order to try to make this more of a dramatic thing than it is, which is there are people who think that Apple should stock their computers with more stuff at the base model. And those prices would then, I'm telling you, you don't want to hear it, would be higher then. They're not going to keep the same price. They're going to raise the price because of the cost of doubling the RAM inside of them. And what happens then is those prices are higher and some people will not buy them. But you'll be able to say, ha-ha, well, they may not have a new computer, but at least they didn't buy a computer that runs slow when a lot of Chrome tabs are open.

So, okay. That's as fiery as I'm going to get today. Yeah. You know, hey, look, as I said, there was some other stuff. It's just gone now. It's gone into the ether forever. I appreciate that a lot of people are really enjoying being up in arms about this and righteous about this.

And my role is to look at that and say, no. And people who want to be really angry and righteous about this are going to be mad about that. And that's fine. But I don't owe you hot takes. I don't. And this is not a hot take. This is an ice cold take. And you can take it or leave it. The U.Ss congress has demanded answers from apple for why they cancelled the problem with john stewart from a letter to apple from a bipartisan committee while companies have the right to determine what content is appropriate for their streaming service the coercive tactics of a foreign power should not be directly or indirectly influencing these determinations. person who is defending the American way from the Chinese Communist Party. So are we surprised? I'm not. But there was something about, I don't know, there was just something when I saw this headline

on 95 Mac which just made me chuckle. It's just like, oh, here's another problem, you know? This is the new problem with the problem with Jon Stewart. Now, Congress is mad. This episode is brought to you by FitBond. When you're looking to change your fitness level, it can be hard to know how to start, which is why I'm pleased to let you know that FitBod is an easy and affordable way to build a fitness plan just for you. Everybody has a fitness path of their own. So FitBod uses data to make sure they customize things to suit that person, to suit you. They use a powerful algorithm to learn about your body, your goals, and your training ability to create a custom dynamic program based on your experience and any equipment you

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Yeehaw. Ming-Chi Kuo is expecting Apple to release a low-cost MacBook in 2024 intended to compete with Chromebooks on pricing and placement in the market. This was from a couple of weeks ago, and I'll read a quote from Tim Hardwick at MacRumors. He says,

According to the original report out of Taiwan, Apple's more affordable MacBooks will adopt some design changes to enable them to achieve the low price. While the outer appearance will still use a metal casing to maintain a distinctive Apple Mac aesthetic, it could be made

of different materials. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman was first to spark serious rumors about reintroducing a 12 inch MacBook model of Apple Silicon, but saying last year that the device would come at the end of 23 or in 24. In January of 2023, Gurman said that a 12-inch MacBook was no longer on the company's near-term roadmap,

but stopped short of ruling the device out completely, meaning that it being pushed into 2024 or later may still be possible i know this is something you wanted to talk about a little bit on today's episode yeah i mean it is i'm really just tapping the sign yeah and saying uh i wrote about this in september uh this is it again right Which is a lot of supply chain things come from Ming-Chi Kuo. And it's like, oh,

let's compete with Chromebooks and all that. Like, is it really going to compete with Chromebooks? Everybody jumps in and they're like, oh, but Chromebooks cost this and Apple's going to make it. And the ball starts rolling

and it leads to very weird places that I think are not likely to happen. My best guess is that I think are not likely to happen. My best guess is that these reports are all about Apple trying to create a lower priced entry-level MacBook or MacBook Air because as we enter the M3 generation, the M1 MacBook Air, it can keep hanging around, but you do have to wonder at some point, is there an alternative to just keeping the M1 Air around? That might be a bunch of things. Might be more appealing in that it would be designed specifically instead of just starting and then rolling down. Remember, it's the old design language because they didn't rev

the design language until M2. Could they do something a little bit different that feels a little bit more modern um separately uh could they did they design the macbook air with parts that are more that that are not as cheap i'll put it that way right now as other parts that are available like is there an opportunity for them to build something that starts at a fairly low price and then can stay there and get, and then get price cuts and drop down into like the, like those base level iPads drop down into a space after a few years that they really like that is maybe a place that a Mac laptop hasn't gone. That's, and, and so I put those things together and that's what I keep thinking here is that this is sort of a, if you think about the iPhone SE, maybe a little bit like that, this idea of, can we take something using kind of existing, existing pieces that

does not cost that much for Apple to build? Can we take that and position it in the place where the M1 Air lives right now? Because I don't know if the M2 air is enough because it's a newer generation like could can the m2 air eventually hit the m1 air's price sure i have a couple problems with that one is are they going to do that or are they going to just replace the m2 air with an m3 air and then keep the m1 air at the bottom right because the the it's got that nice new design and they're going to want people to buy the new design with the new chip in it. So that's one question I would have. And then just more broadly, like how long can you keep the M1 Air around? Because the M1 Air is great. It is great, but it is also going to start feeling older and older and older. And I just

wonder if this rumor, when I saw this rumor, I thought, I wonder if they're just trying to engineer the bottom of the MacBook line because they really like having a laptop down there, but it cannot be the M1 Air forever. And that maybe there's another way that it can engineer something that will give them the margins they want at that price point. But I leave aside this Chromebook thing. I mean, I think, I mean, at first off, Apple strategy in schools is mostly iPad based at this point. And I don't think that a Mac laptop, I can't conceive of a Mac laptop ever really competing with Chromebook pricing.

I don't think that actually makes sense. Chromebooks are like a couple of hundred dollars. Like Apple's not going to do that. Like they're just not going to do it. This sounds like a computer that might start at $999 with education price at $899. And then after a year, it's down $100 or $150. And then they are able to sell that iteration for three or four years. And then three or four years down the line, they just leave it alone, but replace the chip in it and keep it rolling as a small, cheap laptop.

Like cheap for Apple, I should say, again, referring to angry commenters from earlier, like cheap for Apple, which is not necessarily cheap at all, but it's cheap for Apple. That sounds like what this is to me. I don't know. Does that seem, I mean, I know Gurman also has reported about this idea of a 12-inch MacBook. has reported about this idea of a 12-inch MacBook.

I know we're all sort of like grasping for, it's like the men and the elephant again, right? The blind men and the elephant. It's like, what is this? What would this be? And trying to like use the information and let go of the narrative and then try to figure out what it might actually be that makes sense.

That's my best take in it, is that it feels like that, which is M1 Air is good for a while, but it's not good for the long term. What is that low-end laptop? And is it really just like a very old M2 Air three or four years into its lifespan? I don't know. I mean, the M2 Air maybe could get there eventually, but it's really nice and it's of a new generation of design. And I wonder if they can really get those margins down, and if they want the confusion, since the M3 Air would presumably look exactly like the M2 Air. Is that as good a place to build a product as it is to build something that's essentially an M1 Air replacement for down at the bottom of the price list?

price list yeah i'm entirely unconvinced about the idea of a new mac brought in to be a cheap mac like just that doesn't make sense to me i mean i don't even think it really makes sense to me to engineer a new laptop like a 12 inch laptop like i don't it doesn't make sense to me like that you would take the 13 and replace it with a 12. Well, that's at the bottom, right? It's the bottom of the line, though. So you still have your 13. It's an M313 that starts at $1099, and then you replace the MacBook Air M1 with this new thing, and it's $999. I mean, maybe it's a thin and light MacBook like the old one, but that's not the vibe I get. The vibe I get is that Apple's trying

to make a cheaper base model. Well, no, because then you've introduced another more expensive laptop again. That's not going to do anything. And what does Apple want? Apple really does want... The reason I keep coming back to the M1 Air, and maybe they just keep selling the M1 Air. I mean, it is great for most people. I just worry that it's going to feel a little

creaky after a while, but I look at that and like, it's a great computer at a great price. I'm sure that people will write in and tell me that it's not suitable. It's unsuitable and shouldn't be sold because it's not good enough. But I think a lot of people really like that base model MacBook Air and it is the cheapest MacBook Air you can buy. You can get into a Mac laptop at that price. It's very successful, very successful in lots of places. But would Apple want to try to engineer? I should say Apple's history here is not great with engineering cheap products.

It's proven, and I think Tim Cook knows this, Apple's much better at engineering products and then letting them get cheaper over time than it is under engineering cheap products yes but i do wonder when this rumor is out there if that's what the goal here is to is to just you know build the low-end macbook that they can keep like the iphone se that they can maybe vary it over time or the i mean or maybe something like the ipad mini i'm trying to come up with parallels here, but imagine a product that gets designed to be as cheap to make as Apple is willing to make it and built so that they can every few years swap in some modern processors at the low end, but not do anything else to it. And it allows them to, to have that product at the bottom of the price list. price list we've been all these

just debates about the macbook pro in the middle of the price list but like this is really playing out at the bottom of the price list because it matters like that why is that weird ipad still being sold it's the same story because i and i'm sure a lot of people who complain about the macbook pro would probably say that why is that weird dumb ip iPad still around it's got all the old tech and uses the old pencil and all these things and the reason is the same actually which is there's a market that refuses to pay more than that price and so Apple's going to hit that price and I wonder if that's the goal here for the MacBook Air or the low-end MacBook Mac laptop line you mentioned the iPad mini which was like a funny thing to mention because I think it exemplifies where I'm coming from with this. The iPad mini is smaller and it's an original design and it's more expensive than the bigger one.

I feel like that, for me, is why I can't imagine them creating a new chassis for the cheap laptop i can just see them more likely giving it another year or two and then they sell an m2 macbook air which is like in the new style for cheaper than the m4 or m5 macbook air that is the current like here's the thing like that to me that makes the most sense and then creating a brand new product and making it the cheap one. Because I don't think that they're very good at that. What they're better at is what you mentioned, right? So like look at the iPhone SE or whatever. It's just a really old design, right?

Or like look at the ninth generation iPad. It's the cheapest one because it's a really old design. And I think to me, it feels more likely that they would just use what they've already got and that they make up volume and they've understood how to make it as cheap as possible and then make it cheaper by putting in older guts and just sell it forever which i think is the tim cook way we've seen that and every time they've tried to introduce this like hey here's a new thing in the lineup it's always more expensive and so it doesn't make sense this this

rumor doesn't make sense to me from from any of the ways in which people are trying to position it as a thing well this is this is the thing that gives me pause right because they they yeah they generally are not good at doing a brand new like it's just not what they do right they're like oh we're gonna build this product it'd be real good and then somebody has to be the one inside apple to say no no no it can't be real good it can't be it's gonna be cheap and they just it's real hard it's just not what they're made it's not how they're wired right so i do wonder with this like yeah one path is that it's going to be like that 12 inch macbook was which was way too expensive right that was the number one thing wrong with it is that it didn't really match the macbook air um and i mean it had it was underpowered one port all those things too

but also like it cost too much it cost too much so can they do it do they need to do it the the right answer here is what if they took the m1 macbook air and just you know kept it around or eventually put an m2 in it but it's literally just that m1 macbook air and i wonder if that is either too confusing or they decided well no no if we're going to do this in the long run and we want something down here, the right way to do it is to build this smaller laptop for cheaper and get it in the price list. I think there's a real good chance that what happens is this product does come out and it is not cheap, right? I think there's a real good chance that comes out and it's $9.99 or it's $10.99. And people are like, well, wait a second. I thought this was the cheap MacBook that was going to be down there with the Chromebooks. And the answer is, again, it would not be

surprising if the answer is, well, no, it's $9.99. And next year it'll be $8.99. And the year after that, it'll be $7.99. And that's just how they get it down there. And then eventually they get it down there and they can keep it down there or they can rev the chip on it and keep it close to down in that price point. Anyway, that's my guess. I don't have any inside information here about this. I just am trying to guess why would there even be rumors of a product like this? And that's my best guess. I don't think it's going to be a plastic, crappy Chromebook competitor.

I feel like it's pretty clear that they want a laptop that's sub a thousand. And the only way that they, you know, have reliably gotten there is by having it be an old laptop. So is this a new old laptop? We don't need a thinner light anymore because they already make it. It's called the MacBook Air, right? Yeah. That is about, I can't imagine, I can't imagine a MacBook getting thinner thinner than that one honestly like i don't know how you could do it without some kind of breakthrough in technology like it just feels like it's about as thin as you could make something like that and still be able to do all of the things that you want the thing to do like you can't have any ports like where's the usbc gonna

go like the you know the the the little macbook i think could be done as an apple silicon mac and would be thinner and lighter my concern is not one edge though you know like it's the teardrop shapes it's kind of true true it's true um i my my big thing that gives me pause about all these rumors is 12 inch now we don't know what 12 inch means, 12.5 inches, and only a little bit smaller than the 13 inch or what, because Apple, Apple has been designing Mac OS for larger screens over time. And trust me, as somebody who's an 11 inch MacBook Air for a while, it was very clear that Apple was like, I would literally get dialogue boxes that I couldn't, that couldn't fit on the screen. Right. So Apple has been kind of assuming that the average user is using a 13-inch MacBook Air

at this point, right? It's the most popular or maybe a little larger, but that was the smallest. So to have it be a smaller screen, I actually, I think that's the part that gives me the most pause is, I'm not sure macOS wants it to be smaller than 13, but we'll see, or we won't if this doesn't happen.

I don't know. Mark Gurman is reporting that Apple's plans to build cell modems into MacBooks could take until at least 2028. The timelines that Apple have been working on for shipping their own iPhone modems, which have come first, has continuously

slipped. We've mentioned this in the past. Current estimates would be the 2026 iphone at the earliest to get apple's own modem chips once they've done this government says that apple would need multiple years from then on to get their other products up and running which would be the watch the ipad and the mac the mac probably being the last in 2028 at the earliest the plan will be to obviously integrate this technology into the apple silicon system on a chip eventually but not initially right that is that part of the report here is that the ultimate goal would be that all the cellular stuff would just be built into the package like everything else yeah into the into the M series chips and the A series chips and all of that.

His report's great. It includes somebody saying something like, I'm not sure how they thought that buying a failed business, Intel's modem business, would succeed, which is brutal but it's true though right yeah like they bought it because intel couldn't do it so intel sold it to them i'm assuming basically for parts and that only happened because apple was trying to get qualcomm to blink and qualcomm wouldn't blink and so then yeah they had to do something on their own and i i totally get this i think I think it's obviously a hard problem

and Qualcomm has spent a lot of time. This is so core to Qualcomm's identity. And Apple has to catch up with decades of Qualcomm knowledge here. The article makes the point too that part of Qualcomm's knowledge base is they've had their parts out in the, all over the world. And so they've encountered all the quirks and weirdnesses and have learned

from them. And Apple's problem is Apple can't, you know, surreptitiously license their modems to phones that are being sold in random places around the world and learn from them the way apple's going to roll this out is it's going to put it in an apple product and sell it everywhere in the world and so it it doesn't have that advantage the qualcomm has had about being everywhere and learning everything that so they have to do it sort of like artificially which is really difficult so it's it's it's difficult and it's of like artificially, which is really difficult. So it's difficult and it's also like

mission critical for Apple. These products, the iPhone is like, they can't screw up cellular on an iPhone. They just can't do it. The one thing that surprises me here is I started to think maybe this would be better if you tried it on the Mac or the iPad, because if the cellular didn't work very well on the Mac or the iPad, the recommendation would be, well, just don't buy the cellular model. And it's not that big a deal. But with an iPhone, you can't do that. It has to work.

So this is pushing back because Qualcomm, they extended their deal right through 26, I think. Yeah, it keeps getting kicked on as Apple continues to not be able to do what they want but this is gonna it's gonna get kicked on further because yeah if they're gonna start in 26 remember the whole story was they're gonna start with a low volume product like the iphone se and try it out before giving it to the you know to the crown jewels of the main line iphones so if it's 26 is that 26 for the iphone se And then the iPhone proper, assuming it all works okay, will come later. And then they roll it out to watch an iPad and Mac.

And so I saw some articles over the weekend that said something like, big news, Apple's going to put its own cellular technology into Macs. And I'm like, I really admire the person who read that story and took that away from it. Because it is a fact that is stated that the goal is ultimately to get them in the mac but it's literally after they do everything with everything else as a standalone thing eventually they will integrate it with their chips at which point the mac will get it so like i don't know i'm i'm getting closer to saying um that that the mac isn't going to have uh apple cellular in it mac laptops aren't going to have apple cellular in it until like the 2030s at this point a date beginning with 203 i could see this genuinely like i have a

lot of faith in apple obviously as a company and you know they've done incredible things i it would not surprise me if they just never make this work and the reason i think about it is if imagine taking antenna gate and apple maps and smushing them together right because if you ship an iphone and it can't connect to the internet Remember when they shipped the iPhone with two different chips? There was like the Intel one and the Qualcomm one and people were like you don't want the Intel one

That was just unreliable As we were saying imagine if the iPhone just doesn't work in France and Spain Just doesn't work Because as you say, Qualcomm have this knowledge, right? This is a monumental effort that has catastrophic outcome. This feels so hard to do.

Because it is absolutely core to the experience of using this device, right? And you can't get it wrong. And you cannot get it wrong. Because it's half your revenue. You can't get it wrong. And you cannot get it wrong. Because it's half your revenue. You can't get it wrong. You're going to kill. Yes. Like, it's never,

let's look at it from another perspective. It will never win the argument that it's more worth taking the risk than paying Qualcomm. Yes. It will never win that argument, right? As long as there's risk, it will never win that argument, right? As long as there's risk,

it will never win that argument because you would be like, which would you prefer, rolling the dice with our stuff that may fail and kill the iPhone or paying Qualcomm? The answer is simple. Pay Qualcomm. Especially when Qualcomm's

never going to say no to the money. The only person making that decision is Apple, right? Yes. Qualcomm will take that money from apple for as long as it is given like it has to be someone at apple says we should do this let me let me put out i this is probably not true but i'm going to put it out there as a little conspiracy theory i want to throw it out there i love it apple's whole the the doctrine here is um and

this comes from steve jobs it's it, sometimes people will talk about Tim Cook, but it's from Steve Jobs. Never allow a third party to be in control of a thing that is key and core to your business, right? best example of this from the early days was Safari because Macs were getting raked over the coals as being inferior to PCs at web browsing in the nineties and early two thousands because the default browser was internet explorer on the Mac and it wasn't very good. And yes, that meant that Apple was being unfavorably compared to Microsoft because Microsoft's browser on the Mac was bad. And you're Steve Jobs and you're like, we can't allow this to happen.

How is it that people's judgment about whether our computer is good or not is based on the quality of the resources being put at the Mac browser inside Microsoft? And IE for Mac started out good and then it got bad. Anyway, it happens with a lot of Microsoft products on the Mac, maybe in general. So what if, though, Apple's not quite doing that this time? This is my conspiracy theory. What if this is a hedge? What if it's a little like Apple, you know,

working on its own search engine and putting it in a few places in Siri, but not doing its own search engine because it's got its deal with Google. And this is not quite the same, but like, what if the whole reason Apple bought the Intel business and is working on this, it, maybe it is ultimately to build those cellular chips, but maybe it's more as a hedge against Qualcomm acting badly. And what if Apple is okay pushing

back the launch of their chips with cellular capabilities to 22 and 24 and 26 and beyond. What if Apple's okay with it because its deal that it just made with Qualcomm is fine and they don't want to be beholden to Qualcomm forever because that would affect their relationship with Qualcomm. Or at least they don't want qualcomm to think that they're beholden exactly exactly so what if what if this is not apple's crash course to replace qualcomm and by gum they're going to do it by hook or by crook because they got to get out from under the thumb of qualcomm and it is instead apple's going to keep puttering away on this and maybe at some point they'll replace qualcomm and they're also going to replace like the rumors are the Bluetooth and wifi

stuff, like Broadcom and some other stuff that's in there. They also want to replace those. But again, I'm not sure there's a ticking clock here, right? I mean, I know they're spending money on it, but like there is value in just working on it until it's ready and having your supplier know that if they screw up or displease you or overcharge you, they're making it more likely

that they'll lose your business. Because trust me, I know that Apple and Qualcomm don't get along very well. They had those lawsuits, although it's all settled now. But like Qualcomm wants Apple's business, right? Qualcomm wants to never lose Apple as a customer.

One of their executives was quoted as saying, you know, if it lasts longer than this deal, it's all upside, right? Like they're happy for the upside. If they're walking out the door, so be it. But if they stay, that's just more money for us. We like it. So I do wonder if maybe it's not a conspiracy and Apple doesn't actually intend to ship cellular chips. I don't think that's true. But I do wonder if it's a continuum

where it's sort of like, it's okay. Well, we'll put it off some more. And that maybe we should all be viewing this as part of a kind of grander game and not just Apple's moonshot is getting delayed further and further. Speaking of delays, Mark Gurman is also reporting that the Vision Pro is now being targeted for a March release as Apple continues to finalize the OS. They had planned for January 2024 at one point,

but are moving the date to further improve the user experience. And I also saw recently on Mac Rumors, they posted some onboarding videos that were found in Vision OS Beta 6. This made me think that it was coming very soon because the onboarding videos are in the betas all of a sudden. But it seems like now maybe it's still a couple of extra months than we may have assumed. Well, if you think it's a holiday week this week in America and Christmas is coming up next month. And the amount of effort to launch a product in January, Gurman always points out that they don't love launching products in January. One reason they don't love it, this is one of the reasons they didn't want to do Macworld Expo anymore because that was in early January. They don't love it is that Apple

likes to announce and release products, which means the products need to be ready, which means they need to be locked down and you start to back it up. And now you're in Christmas and you're in the holidays and, and all the way back to, uh, to Thanksgiving and like, it's not ideal. Right. So it wouldn't surprise me that, that, I mean, this report doesn't surprise me too much. I said last week, like I felt like it was going to be soon and in winter and not like, I didn't think it would be in May. March is not unreasonable, right? Like that sounds, it's a little later than I thought, but I wasn't really expecting it at a particular date. I just thought it would be sooner rather than later because

it just seemed like they were getting there, but I guess they're not getting there quite as quickly as they would like. Yep. This episode is brought to you by electric turning a small business into a large business into an empire takes work you have to keep your ear to the ground for the things that will help you take it to that next level but this can be hard to do when your attention is being pulled in different directions but that is the reality of being a business owner the team over electric know that small businesses maybe like yours face all of these kinds of challenges and they can be big things, small things

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for scheduling a meeting. Our thanks to Electric for their support of this show and RelayFM. Friend of the show, Chance Miller at 9to5Mac got a huge scoop from Apple that in 2024, they will be adopting the RCS messaging standard and integrating it into the Messages app. I will give you some background in case you're unfamiliar. RCS, also known as Rich Communication Services, is essentially a

replacement for SMS and MMS messaging. It's widely used on Android as a way to ensure high-quality media is shared with messages, so like videos and photos. It supports read receipts, has typing indicators, and can also support encryption in some cases, depending on the version of RCS adopted. There has been a wide push from Android device makers, including Google and Samsung, for Apple to adopt RCS to allow Android users to reach parity with iMessage This is the statement that Apple gave to 9to5Mac. Later next year, we will be adding support for RCS Universal Profile.

The standard is currently published by the GSM Association. The standard is currently published by the GSM Association. We believe RCS Universal Profile will offer a better interoperability experience when compared to SMS or MMS. This will work alongside iMessage, which will continue to be the best and most secure messaging experience for Apple users. Now, the most likely benefits that Apple will be integrating from RCS into messages will be high quality media, read receipts and typing indicators, location sharing, and of course, working over data or Wi-Fi, not needing cell reception necessarily, or you wouldn't have to think about message allowances with your carrier, right? You don't need to think about how you get 100 messages a month or whatever because it's all data now. Apple confirmed, additionally,

they will still be classing these messages as green bubbles. They're not going to be a different bubble and it's not going to be like a different app or whatever. It will sit alongside iMessage in the messages app the same way that SMS does. It will not integrate fully with iMessage. It will not replace anything

specifically. Apple has also said that it will work with the GSMA to further enhance the RCS standard. They want to work on end-to-end encryption as well, like being a thing in the standard. So if you may think, hey, but RCS does do encryption. Device makers, OS or manufacturers can put end-to-end encryption on top of RCS, but it's not part of the standard. So it's on the Google Pixel, for example. It has end-to-end encryption for messages using RCS, but that's Google putting that on top. It's not actually in the standard.

What is your take on this? This is very much, well, I think it's great. On last week's Mac Break Weekly, I actually got into an argument about this where I said, Apple should just do this. It feels like spite that they're only supporting SMS and MMS to Android. This is not about blue bubbles versus green bubbles. It's about making the experience of talking to your green bubble Android friends not stink and it's a it's an iphone user experience issue it's not just an android user experience issue and just saying buy your grandma an iphone is not a good enough answer people have android phones we have to deal with this it should be

better it should be better and and they did it right or they said they would do it in the future that's great i do think and i'm sure there's a is it the boyfriend meme i'm not sure which meme is going to be most appropriate here, but I have been pondering it because what's happened is Google is out there going, Apple, stop the blue bubble hysteria. RCS is great. Join us, join us, join us. And they do that for years. And then finally they're like, Apple, look, it's a standard GSM association endorses it. Join us. And Apple starts walking toward them. And Google's like, oh my God, they're picking me.

They're picking me. They're coming over. They're coming over. And they walk over to the GSMA and shake their hands and say, we're happy to be working with the GSMA. And in the future, we'll work with them on more stuff like encryption. And Google's like, we're yay. Apple came over here.

Yay. But they're not with Apple and the GSMA. They're like off to the side. That seems right. It's like an Apple will not look at them. Apple will not meet their eyes. Right. Apple is very focused on the GSMA as Google stands are going like, but me, right?

Like you're going to look at me, right? And Apple, Apple's never going to look at you. That's what's going on here. I think it's kind of fascinating, right? Apple's just like, Hey, GSMA has this thing called RCS. We're going to work with them on security. And, and Google's like, Oh, I did security. And Apple's like, is there a buzzing sound anyway

we're gonna work with the gsma on security it's amazing amazing this is this is one of the i mean this is so like okay in talking about this yeah we're not like this is the right thing to do apple should and like it would be great if uh apple kept blue bubbles and green bubbles forever like obviously as a human being in the world i think it would be great if this all just worked and people didn't have to make those distinctions right but we also need to when we're talking about this be realistic right in understanding that apple use imessage as a competitive advantage and a lock-in for their platform. We must take that as a thing and also be like, okay, this is what you get.

Blue bubbles means something. Yes, blue bubbles means something. It means, and the people who argue about the blue and green bubbles don't get it or don't want to get it. Blue bubble means it's end-to-end encrypted going through iMessage it it means something and green bubbles mean it doesn't have that and Apple would be uh wrong to conflate them right it would be wrong because you wouldn't be able to tell whether your message was secure or not and that's not great yeah so let's be real though if they are able to get end-to-end encryption and rcs they're still not going to make a blow well yeah at that point okay all right that may be the case but that's theoretical right because we're nowhere near there at this point

we're nowhere near there and you do need to indicate this i mean i guess you could do it with something other than color but like they chose color to differentiate initially because they built this whole new system that uses ip you know instead of using the carriers and that is encrypted and that has all these other features and they used blue to differentiate it now with this they're going to get something that is not sms and mms which is great but it's also not iMessage so they could have chosen another color they've chosen not to i think that's interesting in the long run like if it does have security would you not want to indicate security regardless but like there's a reason why um but again why

why would apple mike why would apple announce a feature that doesn't exist that will be implemented quote later next year why would apple on a on a on a random week in november announce that like surely there must be a was there a big like gsma event no no that didn't happen we cast our eyes over to our friends little east of here, the European Union. Yes. Apple is trying to prove that it is not a gatekeeper to stop the EU telling them they need to fully open up and make everything interoperable. This is all a part of the DMA. If you remember in last week's Rumor Roundup, we made reference to something Mark Gurman said about changes to iMessage.

This is that. So Apple, I think a couple of days ago, so a couple of days after the RCS thing, filed their legal challenge to the European Union to try and say we are not a gatekeeper. And this is one of the things that they will have put into that challenge. They've been like, hey, we're interoperable and open. We're integrating with RCS. So people like, and this is also a lot of stuff.

Like if they're going to do the side loading, that's what that's for too. In the whole way of like, we have these list of things that we are doing and are willing to do you know i'm sure the usbc they can lump in there too be like look sure look we are very willing to yeah to do you know we are very willing to be a part of this and make things easier because what they don't want the european union to do is say you are a gatekeeper we demand that you open up this this and this and make this interoperable so they will give an inch so they don't have to give a mile like that's what's going

on here yeah it is um part of their argument my guess is going to be that that trying to first off i think it's impractical to force a company that has built a secure system for their users to make it open or make it insecure or make them build new software to run on other platforms because it's like a common carrier It seems this is one of those things where I think the idea that the EU could just say, oh, we like iMessage and we want to have it everywhere. So you just have to do that now is, I think, kind of ludicrous. But in order to make their counter argument, what they're saying is, look, look, look, they got their arm around their buddy, GSMA. And they're like, look, we're going to support this standard and we're going to work with them to make it more secure

on a broad level, I guess. Okay. Whatever. And, uh, that's, that's the, what they're trying to do is make a contrast, right? And say, here is a public standard that we are now supporting for doing this sort of thing. Yay. And then we're also going to do our own thing for our customers, and that's our business, and get out of our business. But we will also support this more broadly. And that argument doesn't work.

If you're like, yeah, there are other things out there that offer potentially in the future security and functionality to other users, but we don't care. We're going to refuse to support them and only do iMessage. It's a weaker argument.

So here they are. They're going to be able to make a stronger argument for a thing that, again, I'll point out doesn't exist and won't exist until later next year, which who knows what that means? Like, is that iOS 18? Is that next November? iOS 18.2? Is it a late iOS 17 feature? Who knows? Who knows what that is need to they need to get it out there now as a statement as a policy statement so that they can make the argument that um they have an alternative to iMessage that they also support that is an open standard but they could also you know the European Union could say that's fine make an iMessage app for Android they could I I would be interested to see the legal argument there right and this goes back

to something we talked about way back when about the u.s government talking to apple where the u.s government at one point basically said um or part of the government the fbi or whatever said we want apple to build a special version of ios for us to use for hacking the phones of suspects in crimes. And what I felt then, I feel now, which is seems awfully weird for regulators and governments to demand that companies build certain kinds of software in certain places seems awfully uh strong intervention right doesn't mean they can't do it i don't know the legal of legal deals of it but that's what the dma is for right like this is this is the european union create trying to create a new law to say if you are deemed a gatekeeper and this is like a new thing that they're going to start to

determine in european law sure you have new rules yeah but it's the difference between saying uh is do we uh if the bouncer at the club entrance has to let everybody in or the subway has to let everybody in right it's and that's what the gatekeeper is trying to do, is say it becomes de facto kind of a common carrier, everybody's using it. I feel like with iMessage, and I think there's a real strong argument, especially since iMessage isn't particularly popular in Europe,

that Apple is going to be able to get away with it because it's not a common anything in Europe. It's just not that thing. But I do find it, because it's not a common anything in Europe. It's just not that thing. But I do find it, I personally, I find it deeply offensive that you could build a product for your customers that's so good that everybody else wishes they had it.

So a government or entity comes in and says, it's the law that you have to make it for everybody else now. Like that's bananas. Well, okay, so here's... I think I straddle these lines sometimes. At a certain point, does something not become so large it's like a utility?

And if something becomes like a utility, shouldn't there be rules about how it can operate? Like, we're entering monopoly discussion, right? In this way. And that's the question. And that's what I'm saying is, at what point is your club so large that the bouncer has to let everybody in? That's the question. I guess you go from, like, nightclub to park, right right at that point yeah yeah yeah park is even better

than subway right it's a public it's a public space and you built it but there's a question like if you if does apple park have to let everybody in because it's really nice like i this is the question public versus private and controlling these powerful private entities and telling them what to do and it's it's a difficult question. I think somebody in the Discord is saying, well, what about demanding, not demanding that they make iMessage for Android, but demanding that iMessage be opened up to be interoperable in some way. And the challenge there is you start to say, well, do we lose all our security if we do that? Is this a way for them to say, you actually have to break a bunch of things in your product in order to open them up to the rest of the world.

And then it's not the product anymore, right? It's not that product. Are they just outlawing iMessage at that point? I, I, I don't know, but look, I, I don't like Apple's complete control over its platforms. I don't like Apple's complete control over its platforms, but at the same time, I'm not sure I believe that anybody should say Apple can't have the App Store. And that's not quite what they're saying. They're saying there have to be others and there has to be competition on Apple's platforms. I see that's where I sort of straddle it, which is like, well, first off, they're not a monopoly. They're a monopoly on their products, which are not a monopoly.

Therefore, they are not a monopoly. At the same time, they exert so much control and the user choice is so limited, especially since it is a monopsony it's really just Apple and the Play Store controlling most of this that you do need to provide alternative access because they've gotten too much power over their customers. I feel like you can make an argument, it's hard that like

they are a monopoly on mobile software. And here's the thing. iMessage, of all the things to talk about, it's just like the iMessage thing, it feels just like kind of like FOMO to me. Like it's irrelevant.

It's irrelevant. There are so many different messaging apps. There's so much competition in messaging. What does iMessage lock anybody into really, right? Especially in Europe. Like there are so many different chat alternatives to do that are encrypted, that have better features, that don't have stupid tap back emoji stickers, but real emoji reactions. Sorry, got off track there. There's just so much that of all the,

like what problem is that trying to solve? People feel bad about green bubbles. Well, it might not even solve that problem. Like it's irrelevant. There are bigger fish to fry. Something like the App Store is certainly a better target than iMessage of all things. I say the hero of the story,

Chance Miller is saying on a discord, one of Apple's arguments in the EU is that iMessage is not big enough in the EU to be a gatekeeper. The threshold is 45 million users. So Apple saying it has under that. And look, that's one thing, but this isn't the whole thing,

right? Like they are, the EU is not just going off to iMessage. It is also the app store. And like, this is the shoe that hasn't dropped. They are obviously over the gatekeeper threshold set by the EU.

But I also... Let's look at the EU as a proxy here. And then imagine this conversation in the US about gatekeeper. And I do believe that iMessage is a lock-in product. 100% in my opinion it is.

There would be lots of people that would not I'm sure, I feel anyway, would not switch to Android because then they won't have iMessage anymore. Okay, so what I would say about that is I think that it is true. It is one of the reasons that people stay on iPhone. But I would say I don't think making your product be one that people want to keep is fundamentally wrong.

I don't either. I think it's like saying, oh, Apple, you make these nice aluminum chassis for your computers. You can't do that. People like them too much. You can't. You can't. You got to stop. But in software, they can say, oh, no, no.

People like to use iMessage in America, so we need to stop it. Like, there are other message apps you can use. No, but people like yours, so everybody needs to be need to stop it. There are other message apps you can use. No, but people like yours, so everybody needs to be able to use it. That's such a strange way to take it. And again, this is why I'm saying, I think the App Store, there are much better arguments for that. iMessage, it just seems stupid to me. There are so many other options. There's no issue of competitiveness with iMessage. There's issue of lock-in, but lock-in is about the advantage of iMessage. People want to use it. They want to stay

because it has value to them in some way. That's not the same. That's just not the same. If we look at the whole, look at the bigger picture on this, right? Which is where I feel more strongly is like iMessage

on its own, whatever. But it's to me the thing where I feel more strongly, is like iMessage on its own, whatever. But it's, to me, the thing where I feel like I think they need to soften is that it's when you get, when you create a product which people want to use so much that it becomes so successful, it's then what you choose to do with that success.

And what Apple chose to do with that success. And what Apple chose to do with that success was take every single penny they could. We talk about the way in which they lock things down with developers and then they don't let them link out of the App Store. And then it's like, oh, we're going to create this whole method for you to use your own purchasing, but then we're going to audit you for 30%. It's like, create this incredible product that people want to use, get loads of customers, have tons of success. parts around it where i feel like for me i can't argue for them because i don't think that they use their whole suite of levers in a way that always sits with me i feel like their answer is turn

every lever to on on the money machine and i feel like they maybe could do less of that sometimes this is the even back to i message for a second like that was why i made the argument about apple supporting rcs last week before they said they would yeah is it's one thing to say people like i message and another thing to say although this form other format has been out there for a long time, we're going to not support it and just keep the thing that we built into the iPhone in 2007 that is really bad compared to the other things that are out there because we want to squeeze it. We want it to hurt so that you have to stay on iMessage because if you go this other way, it's going to be painful because we've withheld things that would make it less painful. And on the app store side, there are plenty of examples of that, that, that over the years, you and I have detailed, like what bothers me, like, I'm not sure I really like this idea that maybe it's going to be alternate app stores because it just means alternate

gatekeepers. I hate that. I hate that idea, but it, it does have the effect of, yeah, your apps are worse. You can't buy a book in the Kindle app. It's so stupid. But you can in the iBooks app because Apple has preferred its own store because it acts as its own middleman. That's so anti-competitive and ridiculous, and I hate it. You can't link out to things on the web other than like now one thing somewhere and not really anything useful. It's ridiculous. And for me, the biggest killer is if you're somebody who's built all of your skills in using Apple's platforms and you have an idea for an app and on, on an

iPhone or an iPad and Apple, for whatever reason, doesn't like your idea or doesn't like you or doesn't like your app, you can't ever release it. You can't ever release it on iPhone and iPad because the place where you apply your trade, because Apple is the only path. I hate that too. So there's lots of things to hate here. I just, I roll my eyes at iMessage in Europe, especially because like for Pete's sake, I realize it's part of a larger conversation. And I actually think that's why the RCS move is such a great move

because it is Apple finally saying, all right, we will not aggressively degrade the non iMessage experience in our default app, right? Like I get it. That is, that's a pretty good move. It should have happened years ago, but it's a pretty good move. It should have happened years ago, but it's a pretty good move. But like there are so many other places

where I feel like Apple, as you say, has all the levers switched in one direction. And the question is just, how do you stop that? And the answers are, I guess, switch to Android, but even there, there's a lot of problems. And that's not a great answer. This episode is brought to you by TextExpander. When you work in a small team, every moment counts. You don't want to be wasting your time finding video conferencing details to send to a new client. You don't want to track down the

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and you will get 20% off your first year. That's textexpander.com slash upgrade to say goodbye to repetitive typing and to get 20% off your first year. Our thanks to TextExpander for their support of this show and RelayFM. So it is the 20th of november 2023 uh and the entire world of technology has been uh raptured over the weekend by uh the goings-on open ai and i give the date because probably by the time with the way that this news has unfurled the last four days by the time this episode comes out i expect things to have changed again um i don't know but it's impossible to at least i there will be developments

i'm sure certainly there'll be there's gonna be a lot more detail happening although i feel like we've got to a point where we actually can talk about it now which was not the case the last four days. Four days. So effectively, the summary is on November 17th, OpenAI's board kind of out of nowhere announced that co-founder and CEO Sam Altman had been removed as CEO

effective immediately. The board said that after review, it quote concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. There has kind of been no more information given from the OpenAI board since then to really talk about anything. There's been rumor, there's been conjecture, but nothing else. Then there were talks over the weekend, which was even, I think, the most bizarre thing of this,

where then OpenAI's board were having talks with Sam Altman about bringing him back kind of within 24 hours. And this seems to be in response to the fact that many employees of OpenAI voiced that they would not want to continue being employed by the company if he was gone. to continue being employed by the company if he was gone. They installed an interim CEO, Mira Murati, I believe, was who they put in as the CEO, if I'm remembering correctly. There's been so many interims.

There's another interim CEO now, so it's hard to... Now, yeah. As Emmett Shear, who was the former boss of Twitch, which I can't even get my head around that one. Maybe I don't know enough about Emmett Shear. Then when the talks fell apart

and Shear was announced as CEO, Satya Nadella came out of nowhere and said, we love OpenAI, we're going to continue working with OpenAI. And oh, by the way, we're creating our own new division and Sam Altman is going to be CEO of it and then

I think earlier today I saw that I think there is a there is a letter circulating within OpenAI that 500 current employees have said they will go to Microsoft unless Altman

comes back. That's kind of where we are now. And he's not coming back. He ain't coming back now. This is, okay. So yes, this is real, a lot of drama, a lot of tech industry drama. I want to look at this from a couple of different angles that maybe are not as prominent. I think fundamentally what's going on here is that the how mean do I want to be?

I'm not going to say OpenAI was built on a lie because I don't think it was built on a lie, but I think it was built on a premise that was rapidly, it's a premise that Silicon Valley can't handle, right? Because it was built as a nonprofit that was going to build artificial intelligence things for the benefit of humanity. And over time, it became clear that what was really happening is that they had a for-profit entity

that they were managing that was, because they were not getting a lot of funding for their nonprofit, but they were getting a lot of funding from like Microsoft and they needed money. you need money to build ai stuff right so um they they needed funding from microsoft and other places and they built this for-profit entity and that was what uh sam altman was running and he's a vc guy he's a he's a silicon valley guy um and that's how he works right and so you ended up in the situation where

open ai and and with their partner microsoft was being run as a business it's like a business of uh of like a startup except he doesn't actually own the stock because it's a non-profit like it's and it's broken that's a broken set of uh set of uh characteristics right there there are cross purposes in a lot of ways so i would argue that maybe open ai was broken from the start or at least broken at the point where they realized that they needed to have this other entity i would say it it broke at the point that chat gpt exploded because then it just couldn't it's its fundamental structure could not support where it was going and like on that like i would say what they should have done was find a new structure rather than do what they have done

which was the bad which was bad because now they probably torpedoed the company at this point right so two two things two reasons one is it's a having a non-profit that's about humanity is a good fig leaf over your thing. It's like, no, no, no, we're all for the good. But, but the truth is it was misaligned priorities and, and it was, it was all probably going to come apart. And the number one reason is exactly what happened. People, I find it funny people are like, Oh, this is weird.

It's like, it's only weird if you're thinking of it as a typical Silicon Valley company where the investors are like, oh, this is weird. It's like, it's only weird if you're thinking of it as a typical Silicon Valley company where the investors are on the board, but it was an independent board for a nonprofit who got tired, apparently, of Sam Altman telling them things that they didn't believe were true. And I don't know those allegations. We don't have a lot of details about that, but it's not hard to look at it and say what Sam Altman wanted to do with Open ai was very different from what the board thought they were getting into board of a non-profit i've been on a board of a

non-profit uh the very different kind of responsibility you have on a board of a non-profit versus people on a board of a big profit-seeking company yeah um and so that structure was broken uh it's not surprising in that way that he got fired because that board is not like, their job is not to prop up Sam Altman's business goals. It's not. Believe it or not, it's not because it's a nonprofit organization. That is not why they're there. And what makes me feel a little bit uneasy is the suggestion at a few points that the way that this should have worked and maybe did work for a while is let's pretend that we're a nonprofit and cloak ourselves in the nonprofitness, but we all know what it really is.

And finally, the board, apparently some members of the board, enough, a majority of the board was like, no. It's like, okay. Uh, so that's over. So I think that's fascinating because it really is like Silicon Valley mindset, but inside a thing that is not built to match Silicon Valley mindset. And then on top. So, so from a nonprofit board perspective, I'm like, okay, I get it. But then I think about like Microsoft and Microsoft's whole business strategy is based on their partnership with OpenAI. Yep. And that's a problem because they're a big for-profit business entity and this is a nonprofit.

But the idea that Satya Nadella was told minutes before the announcement went out that it was happening. One minute. One minute. Yeah. Great. That's right. In 60 seconds, this company will self-destruct. First off, my first thought was I would be furious if i were him yeah and my second thought was i know they're talking about

like sam altman wants to do a startup or something else and i thought surely satcha nadela has either going to is it going to fund that startup or just or just buy it or just be it and just set up a company inside microsoft which is what he ended up doing and so the net result is um ben thompson wrote about this in today and he he said it perfectly and i i was sort of thinking about this but he crystallized it perfectly which is microsoft just bought open ai for nothing. Obviously, I believe they wanted to buy them when they invested in them, but they knew

that they wouldn't be able to. I just feel like because they were already with the Blizzard thing, I think Microsoft probably just felt they were not allowed to buy companies, so they effectively bought everything except the company structure right like yeah

because they have the license to everything all the code yes of open ai so they own the intellectual property of open ai as much as open ai does and now they're going to have probably most of the employees of open ai so i saw someone in chat i don't have this verified, but said apparently like OpenAI has like 770 employees and the account online is now saying it's up to 700 people said that they'll move. So there you go. And Satya Nadella has already said, we have a space for everyone. Yep. So what they're effectively doing like is Trojan horsing OpenAI into Copilot, right, which is the new brand. Oh, what if the board wanted this all along?

Let's spread that conspiracy. What if this was the plan all along? I've said this for a while, right? Satya Nadella, he is a stone cold killer, right? He is. It's just business. I find him absolutely fascinating. He seems like a nice guy, right?

He seems like a nice guy and is doing super interesting things with microsoft rebuilding this company and make and has you know been slowly and steadily making them back into the superpower of old right but just in a new way and they focus on new things and he is now going to position co-pilot back to on like he's going to position it on top again like which is where he wanted it but chat GPT kind of had it but now that's probably going to go away

wasn't it always weird though that Microsoft's like key thing that they're doing in AI was always like well we've got a partnership with the best which is open AI but it's a partnership it's like well yeah your core everything is Cop, which is OpenAI. But it's a partnership. It's like, well, yeah, your core, everything is Copilot, which is your branding,

but it's like their technology. Isn't that a little weird? And the answer is, not weird now, right? Not weird now. By the way, pointed out in our Discord that the random person in the chat

who said it's up to 700 is Chance Miller, who was friend of the show in the previous segment. I couldn't remember who said it. I just know I saw it. I just, I enjoy life.

The life comes at you fast. Yeah. In one segment, you're friend of the show. The next, you're just a random person. You're just a guy. That's just how life is.

Just a guy in the chat. Sometimes, sometimes you get exclusive, huge news. And sometimes you're just a person in the discord, you know, just a guy in the chat. Look,

you've got to be humbled sometimes, Jason. All right. You know, like, yeah, it's true in the chat. Look, you've got to be humbled sometimes, Jason, all right? You know, like... Yeah, it's true. You just got to be. It's true. Because it's also kind of funny that, like, you know, the RCS news was huge for, like, a few hours, and then this happened.

Yeah, then Sam Altman happened, and it was all... So, yeah, Microsoft gets to walk away with this stuff, like, lock, stock, and barrel, which seems pretty amazing. They've got the license. I do wonder what will happen to OpenAI as a nonprofit and will it become some sort of other AI entity? We didn't even mention the other part of the AI story, which is that the Anthropic was created, a separate company by a bunch of people who were unhappy with where OpenAI was going, and they left to form another company. So I think the bottom line is that this

is, Microsoft benefits from this early on sort of fantasy by a bunch of galaxy brain Silicon Valley types that, oh, AI, what it really needs is a nonprofit that can guide toward positivity in humanity. And we saw that immediately that started falling apart because the people who are doing it are still thinking like Silicon Valley VC type people. And it's all, you know, it's all business. It's strictly business. And the nonprofit was like, no, no, no, we have a vision, nonprofit vision. And they're like, yeah, we can use that to our advantage. And you're like, no, you're not supposed to use it to your advantage. It's supposed to be what the business is. And I always,

I mean, over the last couple of years, I've thought to myself, it is funny that this is open AI, but it makes it seem like it's just a mom and pop

open source whatever, but it's being run like a serious business, Silicon Valley business. And yeah, it was weird and it was a misfit. And it feels like this is kind of something that was inevitable. In fact, there were those rumors about how Sam Altman was trying to build a startup to do a bunch of stuff like building hardware

for AI processing. And I wonder if part of the friction with the board was them thinking that he was basically going to go do a startup and take all his people with him and leave nothing left. But this is way better, right? Because Microsoft has the license. No matter what the situation is that the board thought was going on or what they wanted to get, what they are ending up with is what they wanted, right? Like, Sam Altman's gone. up with is what they wanted right like sam altman's gone they're gonna go back to being a company about any products because there's not going to be any product people left yeah yeah and they'll be the you know they'll they'll they'll make an announcement that they are shifting strategies to being the keeper of the license for the open ai core technology and something like

that which will be important for as long as it's important. Because I was talking to a few friends about this earlier today, as everyone's been talking about it. There is absolutely no way that Microsoft isn't also building its own LLM. And they're going to... And they can base it on OpenAI, because it doesn't matter.

Because they have, I think, an eternal license to all the OpenAI work. So this is better. They're only going to prop up OpenAI for as long as they need to until the co-pilot LLM is as everything they need. But the thing is, now they don't even necessarily need to do that. Because now they've got OpenAI's whole, presumably, entire staff. And because you always would say, oh, but the intellectual property.

But it's like, but they have the license to the intellectual property it is a robbery it is a straight up robbery it is uh wow quite a thing so yeah so they've got their own tech and they've got the open ai tech and it's just gonna be yeah to be satya nadella right now like to like because how exciting would it be for this to happen if you're here and just be like, oh, it's like Christmas. I can just, I'll just take it.

I'll have it. I wanted to buy it, but I couldn't. Now I don't need to. Well, you know, the power move is going to be, this week, Satya Nadella is going to contact,

he's going to have his people contact the OpenAI board and say, so we're looking to sublet some office space. Do you have any available? We just take everything, take the plants, the chairs, got it all. Wouldn't that be amazing if they're like, yeah, why don't you just let us assume your office space and your chairs and your

plants and all of that and we'll just because we have all these new employees who are currently uh sitting in your space and and we don't want them to move it's so interesting how microsoft is now building all of these like sub companies with its own ceos right because like microsoft gaming has its own ceo like they're doing this now a lot too they're kind of doing this thing that like like what google did with alphabet right but without actually doing the and so counter to the ballmer era where everybody was subservient to windows it's now such and della is just like nope we got a business here we got a business here it's like a holding company

for all sorts of businesses. And Windows is an app now. Right? You saw this? That Windows is an app? It's just an app. It's just an app. Incredible.

Nobody likes. Incredible. Just incredible. A lot of time. This episode is brought to you by Vitally. Customer success teams today are facing a problem.

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today's episode with some Ask Upgrade questions. First one comes from Dan, who says there's been a lot of talk Hi Dan. about a 27 inch iMac.

What I'd love to see is the opposite. A 24 inch standalone display. Do you think there are any odds Apple would come out with this product? No. No, neither do I. I appreciate your optimism there, Dan. But I don't think it's going to happen.

I don't dislike the idea. They already built the iMac. But I the thing is the the imac is that it doesn't stand alone but that's it that's what it is it's it's uh it's a pretty good price and it has a computer in it and i think they're happy with that and i don't think they are interested in making a uh a small uh thinner cheaper version i just i don't i don't think that's where their focus is i think that making a better studio display will be their ultimate goal not making a display that undercuts the studio display diggory asks how long will it be until we see an apple event video in spatial video i am really torn about this because on one hand i can see them wanting to uh boast

about it but on the other hand it's a whole lot more production work to do a spatial so my guess is my guess is it'll be a long time but that there will be some special spatial video content made for apple product announcements going forward. Like there'll be a place you can go in the vision pro to get a spatial look at the new products, but I don't think it's necessarily the event video. That makes sense. I can't make a decision on this one.

Like you say, I can imagine you're doing it. I can imagine we're not doing it. Um, but they're going to want to have stuff to show off the technology and one of the things that they make are these videos but they also make a lot of content so it's true i guess that's the question is do you go to the trouble of either shooting in 3d or doing a 3D process of your event video. I mean, movies do it. They could totally do it and make it available. I wonder, my thought there, and you're right, I don't really know. This is a tough one. My thought is that they're probably having that conversation inside

and saying, what's better? Spending the money on a 3D conversion of our event video so that if you look at it in spatial video or on the Vision Pro, you'll see it in 3D. Yeah. Or make some custom content for Vision Pro that is going to blow them away. or maybe like we shoot the, this product showcase, or we have an immersive thing where you're in the Steve jobs theater lobby and can get an angle on all the new Apple products or something like that. There, there. So that's the question is like, do,

do you just spiff up this video or do you do something special? Because I'll tell you, I think doing something special is going to show off the hardware more than just spiffing up the, the regular video. Francois asks, with Apple's eye on services growth and the recent rumors around AI features in future iOS updates, do you think that an advanced Siri could be a service they launch to give additional features on top of Siri? It could be standalone, but also rolled into Apple One to make the bundle even more enticing.

Maybe? It's an interesting idea that I have not thought of. Off the top of Siri in some way? But you got to get job. Job one is to just fix it. And then Siri Plus or whatever they want to call it. I don't know if they do Siri Plus. I think it might be more like they add other a um other services or other ai features that are

tied into siri to their existing services but i don't yeah like i don't know the overall base is increased but it can do more things now but you need to be a an apple one subscriber to get those features whatever that but fundamentally like apple doing machine learning voice assistant on the iphone well is job one because it reflects on the iphone yeah and so it's got to be good and if you're perceived as withholding some of that goodness behind a paywall um i think that's dangerous for apple i think they're playing with fire there so my guess is that that won't be something that they do initially but it wouldn't shock me if there was a advance you know if you're a news plus subscriber the voice assistant is going to do a better job right and offer you other stuff because it's you know because it's in this service that you pay for

you know i could also imagine there being some features that are behind the subscription because they are just expensive to to. Could be. Right. I could also see maybe if they did it as like a beta at first and it was only available to subscribers. But that also sucks too. I don't know. Steve wrote in and say, I really enjoyed Mike's breakdown of the meaning of pro, which I have personally dubbed the Mike Hurley pro mentality scale.

Going back to steve says existing on a sliding scale from mentality to branding i'm curious though you left the vision pro out of the lineup so for the both of you where do you think the vision pro lands on this scale from uh pro like you know pro being just a thing people want to actually a thing that people use. From AirPods Pro to Mac Pro. Yep. And I have been thinking about this question all day and I am really struggling. I got a solution for you. Okay.

We don't know because we don't know how the Vision Pro will be used. Yep. That's my answer right now is we don't know. be used yeah that's my answer right now is we don't know it's possible that the vision pro will find its niche in high-end you know it's it's computer people who can put up big screens and work at it all day and they're doing a bunch of high-end stuff and they're and there's 3d models and they're doing you know all sorts of stuff with that and that visualization and it's like very pro or it's our friend programmers who are like able to do all sorts of things in that development environment. It's also possible that it turns out like the most amazing things about this product are games and 3D movies and immersive experiences.

And that the using it as a computer is less impressive than those. At which point, if it falls that way, Pro will be about the price and the fact that you can afford it and that it's cutting edge. But I think we won't know. And I think Apple doesn't even know. Right now, Apple is sure that it means the price

and that you can afford it because it's going to be very expensive. But as how people end up in the real world using it, it may be a while before we find that out. Okay. Does that help? No. The price. My non-answer answer?

The price is an interesting factor to this. It's so expensive that it should only be bought by people that are really going to want to put it through its paces. I would also say, again, without it being available, without even knowing what kinds of software are available, the fact that... Let's compare the Vision Pro and the Quest. The Quest is marketed mostly for games right like

games and fun things apple is saying we have built a spatial computer which is very different to saying this thing is for games so if they are able to land the this is a computer i think that shifts the equation. I mean, especially because I'm still unconvinced about what games are going to look like on the thing. Sure. Because we really don't know what that's going to be like yet. You're right. It's being positioned as over on the actual pro scale, right?

The mentality scale more than the branding scale. Right now, that's where apple is trying very hard to position it that's true but we just we won't truly know until the thing is shipped and we see what's what it can do and like how capable is it and all these kinds of things and i continue to be very excited about that because it's still not impossible that it's going to be oh well if you're if you're an NBA fan and you've got the means, you should just buy one of these Apple things because they have this NBA content and you're sitting right there and it's amazing and you just have to do it. And that would be on the other end, which is what's pro about it is

it's nice and expensive and really good and not like I need it for my work, but more like if you can afford it it it's a great experience that's a place it could end up but I agree that's not where Apple's trying to take it right now if you would like to send us in a question for a future episode

of the show just go to upgradefeedback.com and you could send in an Ask Upgrade question you can send in a Snow Talk question you. You can send in a Snow Talk question. You can also send us in feedback and follow-up. Even if it is just to disagree with what pro means and what it doesn't.

We're always happy to take that feedback. And all of it gets read. So thank you to those of you that send it in. Well said. It does. I read it. I don't read it out. You know, that would be the entire show. I would just sit here reading follow-up

to you all day. I don't want to do that. I don't want that. No. You can check out Jason's work over at sixcolors.com and you can hear his shows here on RelayFM and at theincomparable.com. You can listen to my podcast here on RelayFM and check out my work at cortexbrand.com. You can find us online.

We're on Mastodon. Jason is at jsnell on zeppelin.flights. I am at imike, I-M-Y-K-E on mike.social. You can find the show's upgrade at relayfm.social. You can find video clips of the show on TikTok, Instagram, YouTube. We are at Upgrade Relay there. You can also find full video episodes when the recording successfully records.

We are also on threads. I'm at iMike. Jason is at jsnell. Thank you to our members and supporters of Upgrade Plus. Don't forget, you can get 20% off an Upgrade Plus subscription from now until December 15th. Go to giverelay.com to learn more.

Thank you to those of you that do. This can be a gift for you, for your loved ones. Even if you're already a subscriber to another show around RelayFM, you can take advantage of this deal. Thank you to our sponsors of this week's episode, Vitally, TextExpander, Electric, and FitBard. But thank you for listening. I won't be here next week.

I'm going to be on vacation. We have a wonderful guest taking my seat. Jason will be your host for the week. Yes, James Thompson will be joining us next week. Very nice. Very good. Looking forward to it. So listen, I'll be listening while I'm on vacation,

as I always do. Until next time, say goodbye, Jason Snell. Goodbye, Mike. Have a good vacation. Thank you.