Upgrade - 589: The London Air

Episode Date: November 10, 2025

From Relay, this is Upgrade. Episode 589. Today's show is brought to you by Delete Me, Factor, and ExpressVPN. My name is Mike Hurley, and I am joined by Jason Snow. Hi, Jason Snell. I'm Mike Hurley. We did not test this beforehand, but we should try it right now. Let's do it.

Hi-five. Yeah. Because we are in London, baby. I always am. And so is Jason Snell. Surprise. Yeah. Surprise.

I have a snow talk question for you from Darren who wants to know Jason. What do you enjoy most about life in the UK? Well, I've only been here for like five days. You're living here now. That's the surprise. Surprise. Oh, no. Well, if they shut down my flights, then maybe I'll just have to stay here.

Surprise. I don't know. I don't know. I would say this time being in London, I'm reminded of how nice it is to have functional I'll be at occasionally delayed public transport to get me from place to place. I've been zipping all around. Just, you know, taking trains here and there.

It's really nice to be able to do that. A lot of free museums. That's also pretty nice. I think it's all free. Yeah. See? Not bad. We don't have that. Yeah, you just walked.

We went to a museum yesterday. We should do. Strolled on in. No problem. No. So that's what you like museums and travel? I mean, transit. Yeah.

Yeah. I don't know. else? What should I? Me? What else? Well, sure. Yes. The thing I enjoy most about life in the UK is the existence of Michael Harley. Yeah. So thank you, Darren, for that question. I still talk about it right now. You're, you've been here for a week now, basically. Yeah, there's my last day. I'm going back tomorrow. So this is just a little trip. A little trip for fun. A little trip for fun. I used to travel a lot for work. Back in the IDG days, I stands for international. We went all over. I have this theoretical ability to work from everywhere or anywhere at any time and unlimited

essentially vacation time slash work from anywhere, travel around. Of course, my wife has a job in a library and limited vacation time that because of a recent, you know, she changed jobs a couple of years ago is a very limited. It's only getting less limited now. And we always say, oh, well, you could go here, you could go there and I just never do it. So I just never do it. I decided, I've done this a couple of times, like, to Boston and stuff, that I would just come to London. I wanted to come back. I wanted to see your baby. Yep.

Mission accomplished. Let me tell you right now, Uncle Jason, very popular. I'm a baby whisper. Very popular with Lil Sophia. Yeah, I had a great time. We bonded. We had good, you had a good time. And I did some work in your office, which was also, I mean, the- Well, we are right now.

Proving the, I can work from anywhere. Yeah. I worked from your office. So I have been in mega-study. By the way, this is a great episode to watch the video of, right? Like, I hope so. This is a, yes, provided there is one, because we have a multi-camera set up going on right now. This is our second multi-camera.

Using final cut camera. Attempt, yeah, after Memphis. This one worked way easier. It also helped that we're in a place that has tripods and stuff like that. And we didn't have to rearrange an entire hotel's worth of furniture. Although I did move a carton. A bunch of stuff. Yeah, a curtain around your office.

But that wasn't too bad. So we got all that going on. But I think this was a good one to watch because we're together. We've got a fun multi-camera set up that I think you're editing. I assume you're editing. Yes. You're going to be on some phone calls later this afternoon and I'm just going to be sitting on the couch editing with my fingers in Final Cut Pro on iPad.

And that's how... Yeah, I turn those off because I don't want to hear the boop, boop boops every time I touch the screen. It's a really weird feature in Final Cut camera. It makes that noise. It makes Star Trek noises. Yep. So this is a good one for video. Because, yeah, but we're in Mega Studios in my office.

I have been here for five years now. I took the least on this in February 2020. The first time I have had a co-worker in this studio working for an extended period of time. Yeah. I've had underscore come, this underscore is a fixture of the upgrade live from after the iPhone event because he's just over in the corner downloading X code or whatever. Right. So I've had him here.

He came by. He came by. I was here. Obviously. But for me, this is like, I was here Wednesday afternoon, all day Thursday, all day Friday, all day today. Yep. We have been co-workers. Co-workers, yeah.

Co-working. I've found two things about this experience so far. One, love it. Love having you here. We can sit and gab. It's wonderful. I work in my garage surrounded by cats and a dog. It's kind of interesting to be around human beings instead.

Point two, the gabin. That's a problem. I have not got as much work done as I would normally. get done when I'm on my own in silence. Well, the good news is I'm not going to stay here any longer. This is it. I would actually prefer if you did. I would do less things. This desk is always

available to you. Thank you. Thank you. And I guess I have to thank Cortex brand for supplying us with the table. For a man who only works in this office by himself, there are a lot of desks. I bang the table, which probably wasn't good for the audio, but I'm on it. We're on a table right now.

Well, it's the, it's the very... This is where people say that the video ruins the audio. That was a scenario. If you weren't here, if we weren't making video, I wouldn't hit that desk. You proved the table. But I'm on this desk. Yeah, the desk that we're sat up on today, this is where I do my product design work for. And it is usually covered in stuff, all that stuff. We moved that somewhere else. We moved it over there. Because there's some secret things in that desk. We don't need everyone to see it. Nope. We're also both wearing merchandise. Very good, very good merchandise that is available for people to buy

where Jason. Right now. Upgradeyour wardrobe.com. You can get, for those who are not watching, the Ruma Roundup shirt is always available and currently available. And available right now, the Colorsar shirt, which I am wearing a purple Colorsar T-shirt right now with the upgrade logo with a little arrow in the color of the shirt, which is kind of nice. It's a nice little bit. Also, the Pro shirt is available. There's a version of the shirt with the upgrade name on it. There is the upgrade hoodie, which comes in a bunch of different versions now.

There's a quarter zip. there is the classic hoodie I've got mine right behind me too so that's all out there and then of course my favorite the will they buy enough of them to let us print it AirPod Max Believe

The answer is yes by the way Have we already done that? We've sold more of the AirPods Max Believe shirt than the Upgrade Pro T-shirt Wow Wow have we That means we may have also sold more AirPods Max Believe shirts

than ATP has sold of the MacPro believe that would be chef's kiss. They have sold that shirt many times in their defense. And it's diminishing over time, and this is the first time. Anyway, upgrade your wardrobe.com if you would like to buy a shirt or a hoodie. And there are a bunch of varieties, which is kind of nice. If you click through the different product versions, so like there's t-shirts and tank tops and long-sleeve t-shirts and hoodies and quarter zips and the whole, like there's just a lot there.

and this is for another couple weeks so hurry through because a week, we're recording this on a Monday, next Monday we'll talk about it again, but then that Wednesday, so is the end and nine days from as we record this now. So this would be a good time to buy

if you're going to. There's a link in the show notes, but you can also go to upgrade your wardrobe.com. We have some follow-up, so obviously our listeners always writing, and I've got a few great pieces of follow-up from my listeners this week. And an honest question writer, follow-up,

Giver wrote in and said, regarding Apple iPhone demand, so iPhone Air demand, we're talking about, you know, how much do people actually want that phone? The Black iPhone Air

256 gigabyte model is literally the only corporate phone that the multinational company I work for will let us order. Now, this will not amount to any significant difference. I included this because

I just think that is, I don't know the decision making that led this company to get to the, that phone. Maybe Apple really wanted to sell iPhone airs and give them a deal. I mean, maybe, but that is a fascinating model. All the trends that we've seen so far suggest that the iPhone air is the is the least selling of these, which is not super surprising and it's a fairly small amount. We don't know. I have my theory that it's going to be a little bit of a grower over

time. My guess is it's still not going to be an enormous hit, but it doesn't need to be because it's part of this larger group of phones that actually seem to be doing very well. So I just, yeah, that anonymous question answered. If that is the same in your organization, please let us know. Yeah. Go to upgrade feedback.com and let us know. Very nice. We also had another anonymous person.

I don't know if they're the same person, couldn't tell. Did you know? It proves this system works. This is a factory. We don't actually know. That I didn't know. Yeah. Well, sometimes people say anonymous and it would lead their email address.

I'm not sure what they're sometimes. Because we need to ask them. Are you sure you want to share them? Sometimes people's email addresses are their names. I literally are names. So that is a decision. Well, I think anonymous in the case of upgrade feedback.com is please don't use my name. But when they leave the email address, I assume that means they're okay with us knowing who they are

and maybe even contacting them if we have to ask a follow-up question. That's not the same as true anonymity where you, which is usually used by people who want to say mean things. That's true. And then they hide who they are entirely. An anonymous person wrote in and said, y'all said, did you know that the iPhone 17 actually costs $829, not $799? Carriers appear to discount the phone by $30 to customers who purchase through Apple's retail store in the U.S. If you purchase the phone without a carrier, you pay $829.

Okay. I would not call this accurate. I mean, the facts are true, but what I would say is it's $829. if you refuse to say or you don't have a carrier. There are some reasons for that. And it does involve, I think, a character connection to Apple, a carrier connection to Apple. But it's also, it may also be kind of like a gray market alert.

Like if you don't have it connected to an account, what are you doing with that phone? All I'll say is it is $7.99 because saying that you have a carrier does not mean you agree to any terms with the carrier. I am not on a plan with AT&T. AT&T doesn't get any more money from me. All I'm doing is saying, yes, I do have AT&T. And then they do the, all it does is prime AT&T to move my phone and my ESIM over and all that.

So it is true if you want to buy an iPhone and you literally don't have a carrier, which is true for you, right? Yes. but it's not the case in the UK the price is always the same but when you when you bought when Stephen bought your phone for you in the US does he put down his carrier

well I bought it this time oh you bought it and did you say no carrier and you paid the extra $30 correct yeah that's right that's because you're a black market here that's me you're a smuggler yeah I'm a smuggler always smuggling every day I'm smuggled it's a lesson to business it's the smugglers blues Ben wrote in and said Mike I agree

that we need alternate workouts on the Apple Watch with stroller being an excellent example I recently had an experience while working with a team on a construction project in Guatemala. At over 5,000 feet elevation, we were carrying 90-pound bags of mortar of two flights of stairs by hand. Around four bags in, my watch asked me if I was out for a walk. Once we caught our breath, we had a good laugh or what Apple must think of my fitness level, if they thought that was a walk. I just thought this is funny. Yeah.

And obviously, they're not going to have, are you carrying big bags of sand? Bags of mortar, yeah. But it is funny, right, that like sometimes it's like, oh, what are you doing? This goes to your point, which is, at some point, it should see your heart rate and stuff and your movement and say, oh, yeah, something's happening here. Yeah. Let's, let's log this. And I guess it does log it, but it doesn't count it as a workout. I don't know. Because that's the other thing is sometimes you get really focused on. I've got to put this in as a workout. But like, if you don't put it in as a workout, but you're also exercising, you get the credit. It's a little different, but you basically get the credit. I've done that where I've been doing something ridiculous. And then I look at my rings and they've, They know, even though I never said a workout, they know what was going on. You wrote a little blog post about your holiday lights, which is the thing we've spoken about before in Upgrade Plus. Yeah.

So I wanted to, for those who didn't hear Upgrade Plus, episode 535, a full year ago. Who couldn't forget that gem? A listener sent me a note on social media and said, hey, where was that story about your holiday lights? Because I'm looking it up. And I looked at six colors. about, oh, did I never write about that? And the answer is, yes, I told that whole story on Upgrade Plus and then failed at the key in my career cycle of content, which is you write it, you talk about it. You talk about it, you write about it. You get kind of everything you

can out of it. That's the idea. So shame on me. I didn't do that. So I wrote a blog post that's up on six colors now that everybody can read because we're not in Upgrade Plus right now. If you didn't hear about my permanent holiday lights that I installed last year, I wrote about it this year, and that's on the site. And then I just have a little side story here. Yes. Which is, in order to write this a year later, one of the things I did is I went and found our conversation from Upgrade plus 535, made a transcript of it. Yep.

Fed the transcript of that segment into Claude and said, write. a blog post in the style of Six Colors based on this podcast transcript. And what I got back was a perfectly serviceable article that was mostly accurate describing what I described in there based on my own words in a voice and a tone

that I would never have written the article in. Yeah, there was some non-jasonisms. But as we noted, part of the problem was this was the both of us having a conversation. It was. It was mostly me telling a story, but you were in there. Polluting it. You were in there. You would have had to get a co-by line. It would have been by me and you and Claude. Our friend Claude. Good old Claude. Good old Claude. They, them, it, it's. It's, it's, let's not personify it at all. It is.

It is. Our good friend, Claude. It is Claude. I think even it would be a personized. It would be a personification, right? Would be what? A personification. It. Yeah. Well, no, it is okay. I think, I think it is what you go for for an AI because it's not a it's not a living being it's an it i think even clod though giving it i wouldn't give it a i wouldn't give it you published the clod version i did not publish the clod version i sent it to some people and said this happened uh what i find disturbing about it in a good way i guess is if someone who wasn't me wrote that article for me i would have given it an edit and posted it yeah because it was good and what i one of the reasons i did it is we're often put in this situation

where I've talked about something in depth on a podcast, but haven't written about it yet. And sometimes I think, didn't I just do this work? Didn't I just talk this whole thing through? Couldn't that be the article? The answer is people don't talk like they're right. Absolutely no. But running the complete transcript through the LLM, it was pretty good. And I'm wondering if there's some other technique that I could use to get raw material,

like organize this in a way that it would lead to my writing. a post without asking it because seriously I looked at the blog post and then I literally just rewrote it. I think I used a sentence from it and I used one reference that it made, although I turned it into a joke, which it wasn't in the original. So it was one of those things where like I was very impressed by it, but also for a blog post under my name, I was like, nope, and I wrote my own thing instead. But it was very impressive. It's a good story. It's a good story. You don't want to be like, oh, no. Yeah, right.

No, I mean, it was good in that way, that it was like, oh, no, this is exactly. But the truth is, if I didn't take the pride in ownership, I could have tweaked it a little bit and posted it in my name, and it would have been fine. But what I like about it is it was based on my words, right? So it wasn't like it was inventing something. It was taking a whole story I told in podcast form and turning it into the blog version of that story. And so, you know, interesting data point, but at the end of the day, I wrote the article myself instead.

You included a link in our notes to an article by Ken Siegel. And it's regarding ads in, this is in relation to the ads in Apple Maps. Yeah, the story that Apple is considering adding ads to Apple Maps. I just put this in, we'll put it in the show notes. Ken Siegel is a veteran ad man is probably how he's described, worked on a lot of campaigns for Apple in the earlyish days and has a blog and wrote a piece about this

with the headline Apple is crossing a Steve Jobs red line by doing this advertising I didn't take away the same thing from his story that he and some other people did the story he told is there was an relatively early version of macOS 10 back when they used to charge for updates

and there was a debate within Apple about whether they were going to just charge for the update or if they're going to charge for the update and then also do a free version with ads and then it was like what are the ads going to be in macOS is it when it was like a Nike commercial place when you start up or is it you right click and there's a you know something brought to you by somebody

or who knows what it is And the story that he tells is that there was a whole conversation about this. And then a couple days later, Steve Jobs called and said, yeah, we're not going to do that. That's going to junk up the experience. I don't want that. I don't want anybody to have that user experience. And so there's a very clear, easy narrative here, which is, aha, see, Steve Jobs wouldn't have done it. I'll just point out, like, they didn't have the meeting.

And in the middle of the meeting, he was like, no, no, I don't want to hear about it anymore. That's a terrible idea. No. It apparently was like he went away and thought about it for. a while. And then he said, no, we're not going to do it. That's not quite the same. And I would also say, a pop-a-bad, like they do with Windows, like a pop-up ad in macOS is not quite the same as a sponsored restaurant in Apple Maps. It's not the same. It's not the same. I would just say, Ken uses an AI-generated Steve Jobs. Yeah. Oh, man, that's so creepy. I hate it. I hate it. It's just

not needed. Yeah. Like, there are many pictures of Steve Jobs if you want that, or just use something else. If you're going to AI generate something, I don't know, don't generate an image of a dead man to, like, prove your point. Yeah. Like, there's no need to do that. Which I would say is a debatable point that isn't actually proven.

Yeah. And I think you're right. This is, they're both advertising, they're both in Mac operating systems, they're absolutely not the same thing. Like, they're absolutely not the same thing. Yeah. Like, it's like, well, Zoe's saying in the Discord,

it's like a Mac with special offers. That's what we're talking about. Yeah. And that is completely, different to even on the Kindle getting sponsored books in a search. Right. Right. That is that in the Kindle is incredibly different to having a display ad on the home screen

of your Kindle. Yeah. This feels like a relatively weak way to try and do a gotcha about Steve Jobs would never. And I think the truth is, there's a little very slight hot take. I think there's lots of Steve Jobs would never is that Steve Jobs would totally. Steve Jobs just didn't have the opportunity. Yeah. Because these are things that came after.

Yeah. To say would never, I just... Steve Jobs liked money. Yeah. Yes. He liked money. He liked user experience too. And I'm sure there are things that Apple does that Steve Jobs would never.

Yeah. I also think there are a lot of things people say Steve Jobs would never that Steve Jobs would totally do. Absolutely. We mentioned this last week when we're talking about the Apple results that you were going to put together a set of charts for Apple's fiscal 2025. And I did. Because you can compare it to previous years. and like that's essentially it's not a chart of the year is a chart of the year compared to other years yeah i'm rolling all the quarters together into these annuals fiscal annuals and there are a few

things that jump out of me from looking at this so you know overall revenue um is back to growing it kind of stored for a little bit after the pandemic because revenue went insane during the pandemic right right you know you can't look at the charts and see that yeah and it's it's this is now the we spoke about it's a bunch before this is almost like the iPhone six kind of scenario, right, where like lots of sales happened all at once for a specific reason, not because that's how it's always going to be. But then the iPhone went back to growth again. And this is where Apple is as a company. You can see it, right? They shut up. Things went down a little bit. And now they're higher than the peak of the biggest,

biggest peak. They're higher than that now. So you can see that their revenue is back on the up push trajectory that it's been on. And the iPhone is also doing. doing that, which is clearly the alignment. You can overlap the chart, and it's the same chart. Yeah, I mean, the growth of Apple is pretty much the growth of the iPhone, augmented by services, but really, it's as the iPhone grows, Apple grows. But again, like, you have a chart where you overlay them all together, and you see that services number, and it's not going to catch it, but it is catching.

Like, the shape of that graph is different, and it is one that is just getting steeper and steeper. Yeah, when I started doing this chart, the point of the combined chart was to show how far above the iPhone, or how far above everything else the iPhone was. And then what's happened in the last few years is now it's sort of like also look at the rise of services, which is separating from all the play. Because, you know, 10 years ago, it was kind of hanging around with the rest of them down there. And it's not now. It's in its own zone in between the rest of them and the iPhone. Yeah. But it also gets across that idea that the iPhone. It's just, when we individually chart them, they look like they're the same and they are not. But again, it's like you can actually make the exact, if you took iPhone out of that chart, so it would also be an interested chart of like, oh, you think services is around where the rest of the products are and, oh, buddy, it ain't. It's like three times the size. So, like, it's, you know, very serious. And also, wearables, that is the only one in decline.

It's an active decline, which is fascinating. Yep. Yeah. What is going on there? I don't know. Like, you'd think the AirPods would continue to be a great success for them. But it doesn't seem to be what's going on. Well, we'll see how the new AirPods do.

That's a good point. We have new AirPods. That might tick it up a little bit. Maybe. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know if AirPods Pro are the driver. Maybe they are.

Yeah, I mean, I think the AirPods are there and the Apple Watch and they keep selling more Apple Watches, but maybe the Apple Watches are, I don't know what's going on with the wearables category. It's really interesting. They seem to have, yeah, come down off of their high. This episode is brought to you by our friends over at Delete Me. Delete Me makes it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everybody vulnerable. Delete Me does all the hard work of wiping you and your family's personal information from

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upgrade 20. Our thanks to delete me for their support of this show and relay. So today, I think actually today, which is the 10th of November, 2021, 2025, is five years from the introduction of Apple Silicon. That's right. Big day. That's right.

Five years to the day. remember that five years ago in the let me take you back to 2020 no I don't want to go back to 2020 I don't want to go back there but we can talk about it so this was the introduction this wasn't the first time we found out about it

this wasn't the naming right that was the WWDC I think before yeah where we went from Apple our Macs as we called them to Apple Silicon they did the developer transition kit which had an iPad chip in it right A12 Z yep in a little Mac Mini some say Z

So I'm saying Z. I wouldn't. Then they announced the first consumer products. They were announced and available, I think, in November. That included an M1 version of three existing products. The MacBook Air, the 13-inch MacBook Pro, base model, and the Mac Mini. And the Mac Mini. So they were the only, it wasn't the Touchbar 13-inch. I don't know if that was still for sale at that time.

But it was the kind of standard 13-inch with the function row. Yeah, I think so. I think they hadn't put the touchbar on it yet. Yeah. Is that right? I don't know. Something like that. Yeah.

It's the low end one, the one that is less of an oddity now than it was back then. Yeah. It really was such an outlier that they would just update it like that. And so they all went on sale, same designs. It was announced of a 45 minute pre-recorded video. This was notable because it was the third video event in three months. Yep. Oh, boy.

that was a really busy fall, right? For those of us who watch this stuff and cover this stuff, they're like, there was September event, October event, and November event. So it was a very busy fall as they were rolling that stuff out and figuring out how they're going to roll out products without a live event. Apparently, according to the Discord, it did have the touch bar on it.

Okay, that's right. So it was the low-end touchbar model then. I dropped it a year later, apparently. So, yeah, this was, this was the one where the iPhone came late, right? The iPhone came in October, right? So I've had an Apple Watch. I remember I was being very surprised there was no iPhone. We didn't know that going into the event.

Then the iPhone, although we were expecting possibly an iPhone to be, I think the rumor at the time was the iPhone is coming in October. Like that was, but we just figured they would announce it and say it will be on set in a month. And they did not. That they did not. They did another event in October. Then another event in November. Right.

Because I just recently did, as you saw, because you were looking over my shoulder at a number spreadsheet. And I had a tab that looked weird. Yeah, weird tab. Weirdly named tab. And I explained that I was trying to suss out from that if there was any signal to be found in changes in iPhone sales in the fourth fiscal quarter because it's such a short time. And actually, what I realized is it's almost always eight days. the eight days in the quarter where they're selling new iPhones

but sometimes it's one day and then in 2020 it was no days it was negative days because they didn't even announce it until October quote from your article about the M1

everything was fast much faster than Intel so much faster that even software compiled for Intel running in a co-transition layer via Rosetta branch is fine

it's fine Rosetta too is essentially an unnoticeable thing like people that went through the original transition, the Intel transition from PowerPC, Rosetta was a thing where your software would work and you were happy that it worked. I remember that. I remember using Word in Rosetta. And it was a little slower, but it worked. It did it. Rosetta too, you didn't know. You didn't notice.

Because the performance gains was so incredible. And one of the biggest things was the battery life. The battery life on those laptops was just unfathomable. Yeah. Yeah. Performance and battery life all at once in a jump that would normally feel like it was, you know, three, four, five chip generations and it happened in one generation. Yep, and then we had our first thing it was the next year, 2021.

It was the first new designs. That was the 14 and 16 inch MacBook Pro. Right, and the IMA. They got the M1 and the IMac. Got the M1, that got the M1, the L1 Pro and M1 Max. Yeah, and then they introduced the Mac Studio. Then they introduced the Mac Studio.

Was that in 2021? I think so. Wow. M1, Max, and Pro. I guess that was later in the year, right? I don't know if I can pass a quiz on M1 release Oh no no no it's the quizzes

A quote from you article A lot of us keen observers This is on Macwell by the way I've been looking at the show notes A lot of us keen observers of Apple Figured that the company's chip rollouts Would follow the same pattern But it hasn't been so simple

And we speak about this often right Of like We all just assumed There would be a reliable pattern Of some description Whether they do a new chip every year or a new chip every 18 months or whatever. Because the whole thing that we spoke about as pundits beforehand was Apple must get off Intel

so they can control their own process and they're not going to be held back by Intel's delays. That was what we were always talking about. And I think the last five years, even the last 12 months has shown that the chips come when they're ready and they're not ready every year and they're not all ready every year and they're going to go into what they think they need to go into. Right. And Apple has more say in it now because it's their chips and all of that. And they know when they're coming and they're being built to their specifications. All that is true. But it's not what we thought was going to happen. You know, the pattern of the M1 was not repeated with the two, three, four, and five. And in fact, you know, every one of them has been a little bit different. And it's not about what's realistic. Is it just about what we expected. Right. And it was our expectation of like, well, well, Apple does every year produce an iPhone chip. Right. We don't have years where they're like, this iPhone we just didn't we just kept the same one or like this iPhone I guess this sometimes happens we have the previous one but it's more powerful but like every year there

is an increment this phone has this every year they're turning that around but it's not necessarily the same with the Mac I mean I guess every calendar year a chip right is new but they're not doing the and I actually wouldn't want them to either right like I wouldn't want every single Mac to receive a new chip every single year. It's just too much, I think. And I don't think it is a product line

that can make that work financially. Like if you're revising the iMac, the Mac Studio, the Mac Mini, all the laptops. It's like it's just not, and also the gains year over year are nice, but not

necessary in all the machines. What we have learned in four and a half cycles of Apple Silicon is that Apple varies it based on their needs. And if they feel there's a good reason, so like they've got some systems that only get updated every other year except if they feel there's a good reason, or they've got the moment to do it.

And then they might do it again. So even there, you're like, oh, the desktops will be every other year, except when they're not. Okay, I guess sometimes that happens. It's sort of however it suits them. The result of all of this, though every generation has its quirks, Apple has managed to not drop the ball after the gigantic leap from Intel to N1. It has been an unrivaled success.

I would say the thing, so that that huge leap happened, and then the question was, what were they going to do after that? And what they've done is iterate. Yeah. Right. And I did a chart, and I posted a version of it earlier too, but it's the idea of like the change between generations. And it's like mostly, not every time.

It's like, oh, look, the CPU went 12% faster and the GPU is 18% faster or whatever it is. But the net result of that is that the M5 chip is twice as fast as the M1. So they are continuing to get really good incremental change. And what I would say, the other thing that we've learned that I think is interesting is they're managing this by,

upgrading parts of the chip year to year and having a different emphasis. So like they added the AI acceleration to CPUs in M4 and to GPUs in M5. Some years they'll be like, oh, the performance core is better

or the efficiency core is better or the GPU is better or the neural engine is better. But I don't think they've ever done it where they've said every single component is new because I don't think they've got the bandwidth for that.

And it's just not necessary. And it's not necessary. So they keep on moving and keep on updating all the parts, but it's not all at once. It adds new characteristics to the overall episodicum picture, right? And you mentioned it. You just mentioned now, but you mentioned it a bit more detail in your article,

that, like, they assumed all of machine learning would be handled by the neural processor that they made. Yeah. But it turns out that the demands of machine learning changed. Yeah, so many people write on GPUs. Yeah. They're like, oh, geez, we got to do that too. So the neural processor continues, and it handles tasks that Apple needs and some developers need.

Some needs much more power. And so they adapted to GPU for that. And I also think, I mean, look, it is clear that that team that I believe is led by Joni Surridge still is an absolute powerhouse inside of Apple. Like, they are producing at a level that is potentially unparalleled inside of the company. company? They seem to be able to adapt quickly, and they are producing work that is the envy of the industry. And every time it seems to me, at least, that people count them out, they prove them wrong, right? But they're like, oh, you can't make the GPU work like this. It's not going to work like this. Oh, it does. All those worries we had. You can't make sorted RAM work. That's not

going to be good for the user. But it turns out it is. You won't be able to get enough RAM in a pro system. That was a big one. How are you going to get the GPS? How are you going to get the GPS? using the RAM in a pro system. Kind of. It's fine. It's like they did it. They just sewed two of them together. But it doesn't matter because they built their chips so that that can work. Right. Right. They're doing it. I'm glad you like that article. I wrote it over there. Oh, did what you did. I wrote that article right over. Well, we were co-working. Yeah. The original M1 MacBook Air, though, that that machine from five years, which I would say that is the, the, the, the, hero machine of the M1,

was the Macbock Air. For sure. That was the one that probably, I mean, definitely sold the because you always don't anyway. Always. That product you can still buy today in the year of upgrade 2025. Yes. You can do that.

Yes. And they're still making it. Roll on into Walmart. You could just go buy it on Walmart.com. Yep. Yep. Mark Goerman confirms the low-cost MacBook rumors and says it will come out

in the first half of next year. So this is the thing we've been talking about a bunch. Yeah. Ming Chi Kuo had it for years. Yeah. But like I think in the last few months, it's really started to pick up in June. Because they're being made.

Ming Chi Kuo talked about it. Digitimes broke a story about this in 2000, what, 23. So two years ago, a little more than two years ago. And then Kuo was like, yeah, this is happening either second half of this year or first half next year. And then now Mark German has said it is happening. Here's the code name because he loves a code name. And it's going to happen first half of next year. Well under $1,000 using less advanced components, relying on an iPhone processor,

a lower end LCD display the screen will be the smallest of any current Mac coming in at slightly below the 13.61 used in the MacBook Air. I would say well the M1 Air that's still for sale is a 13.3 so it feels this feels very much to me like it's

the M1 Air with a different processor in it but we'll see what else they might do but maybe a different design. Hopefully a different design. I mean some of the original rumors around this product was that it was going to be color. Yeah but I I am very very very very skeptical of it being a different design because if it's a different design, it increases

the cost to make it, which means the margins are reduced in a product that you want to have the biggest margins on. I feel like Tim Cook is the kind of guy who says, can't we just reuse the case of the MacBook Air M1? And they'll be like, because the MacBook Air doesn't look like that anymore. It's shaped differently now and it has been for years. And maybe they just anodized that aluminum to be in fun colors. And they keep going. Back in, beginning of July after this story broke the last time. I looked at the performance characteristics of the

A18 Pro, which was in the last year's iPhone Pro, versus the M1 that's in that Walmart air and found that it's, in some tests, it's the same speed and another test it's faster than the M1. So yes, you can put an iPhone Pro processor in a

MacBook and it will actually, I think, be decent performance, which five years in Apple Silicon, I think, is actually the story here. I think the reason this product can exist is because Apple Silicon has raised the bar or lowered the bar. I don't know. Where does the bar go? It is Apple Silicon has made it so that even a five-year-old system is actually pretty good for a lot of uses for base uses. And if you can get a new chip that is even cheaper that has similar performance characteristics, that allows you to make a product that's cheaper

than the MacBook Air, which before didn't make sense. And I think that's what's going on here. So one of the things that Mark Goeman is framing this article around is Chromebooks and saying that Apple is kind of building a Chromebook killer. Yeah. In our document, you said, what if it's wrong? Yeah. I think the framing of Chromebook killer is a little easy because there are lots of reasons that especially schools do Chromebooks. And also, my son had a Chromebook in high school. And let me tell you, the Chromebooks that get used, that get bought,

are cheap, plastic, and sold at great volume, I am dubious that Apple can or wants to compete with that kind of like really bad product. Are there Chromebooks that are more expensive that are a little nicer that Apple might want to compete with? Sure, I'm sure. But killer, like I think misses the idea. I think it's easy to say,

The Verge wrote a story this weekend. And again, here's the code, any website that has posting over the weekend. Those are not apologies to everybody. Those are not the A team of writers. Wow. Sorry. Those are the people they hire to hold down the fort on the weekend in case something happens.

And I'm just going to come out and say it. You did? Well, get ready. Okay. Because that story was Apple's bringing back the netbook. Okay. It's hacky. It's hacky.

Yeah. They're not doing that. Again, it's just a very lazy take on it. They're not bringing back the netbook. The point here is just they're going to make a cheaper computer. they're going to go down below what they've been able to do before. I think it's because Apple has found in its experimentation with pricing, putting the air on sale, selling the M1 air at Walmart.

What they're doing is saying, is there an audience beyond our audience? People who would aspire to get an Apple laptop, but they're just not going to pay $999, $899 for it. Who are they? And can we reach them with a product that we're still proud to sell that we think does not betray the kind of brand promises? Apple. And I think that that's what they've been experimenting with here. I don't think they

are trying to kill cheap plastic Chromebooks in schools. I don't think they're trying to make a netbook. I don't think any of those angles are right. I think that those are easy, but I don't think that's what they're doing here. Yeah. Today I spent some time on Google store looking at Chromebooks. Most of them are like $500 to $700, except this is one. There's $180. dollar. So it's like this machine could come out and compete with and would ultimately kill a

large portion of Chromebooks. Because I think if you have a Mac for $500, that's what people are going to buy. Unless they are told to buy something else, I think a lot of people would buy it because a lot of people on iPhones, right? They know the Mac is there for a reason, but it's like that's too expensive for me. And right now, Apple's only

argument in that price point to like schools is an iPad with a keyboard case which has lots of issues that are solved like running Chrome

right well also yes right like that Chromebook killer is at the individual level it is not at the institutional level schools running Chrome now like that's just what happens right like they use Google Docs

they use all this stuff and the best way to get that experience is to use a computer that can you can install them on Chrome. So let me tell you, I said that my son had a really, really, really cheap Chromebook that was assigned to him. Other than the one test he had to take where they verified that he was on the Chromebook, let me tell you what he did. He used a MacBook all year. In fact, he used his sister's old one port 12-inch MacBook. Wow. That was his Chromebook for the year,

which is funny, right, because it's underpowered and all of that. But it was his Chromebook. But it was his Chromebook for the year. And he, he, you know, again, I'm not trying. I mean, I expect he was using Chrome, though. I'm sure he was. But this is the thing. And I was not like, extolling the virtues of the Mac over over, over a Chromebook or something. He was like, this laptop sucks. And I said, yeah, do you want Jamie's old? He's like, yes, please. Yeah, it's going to be a nicer experience. Right. So I think that that is a thing of like the individual level, right? Like, you get the ability to have your own Chromebook in school or university or whatever. You're going to pick up the $500. Macbook care instead. Like, that's what you're going to go with. And obviously, obviously the other point, as our Discord is making now is, you're also going into a price level

that PC laptops have played without Macs being against them forever. Keep in mind, I believe the lowest price ever for a new Mac sold by Apple was $49 for the first Mac Mini. And it didn't come with a display

or keyboard or mouse. It wasn't. It was $499. but it's like $499 in the way that a car is the price that it says it is when you go into buy it. Well, it was the base model, but yeah, you had to have a keyboard and a mouse. But that's my point is this is, in many ways, uncharted territory for Apple. I think Apple Silicon enables it. And yeah, if I was making a lot of money selling Windows laptops or Chromebooks at $599 or $4.99, I would be a little nervous about Apple sliding in there with something that has the appeal of a MacBook Air for, I mean, what do we think the price is going to be here?

My guess is, my guess is $599 because that's what the M1 is at Walmart and that it will be discounted and that like education will get it for $4.99. And there'll be sales for $4.99. If you're in school or, you know, you get $4.99, $500 a laptop. Yeah, that's my guess. That's my guess. MacOS with what will be a very competitive chip, even than your iPhone chip. our audience is very techy and they're very particular and we love them as a way we love as are we

we love our listeners and one thing that i've heard from some people is like well yeah well what you know what are the upgrades like because so many of apple's products are like it's priced at 999 but you know you're going to want the 11 especially our audience you're going to pay 11 99 or 12 9 for them aqua care because you're going to want more stories you're going to want more memory what i would say is i don't think this thing's even going to have an upgrade path i think there's going to be one skew of it It's going to be enough RAM to do basic, you know, to do Apple intelligence, but no more. It's going to be, I think that A, 18 Pro can only do like 8 gigs of memory, I think. I mean, probably.

But this is what it's going to be. It may even only be a one skew, two skew laptop and the only difference is storage. Yeah, or color. Or color, yeah. I don't even know if storage, but maybe. But this is my point is, you basically, it's not meant to be customized. if you want a better computer the MacBook Air is there

they don't want to kill the MacBook Air by having everybody abandon it to go down to the 599 and so it's going to be extremely constrained about what it's going to be and that is part of the whole point

that is the point of it yes and what do you think about the possibility of them not selling it on Apple.com which is like a thing that's popped into my head because obviously they only sell the M1 at Walmart I feel like if it's a proper Mac, I think they will. I could see a scenario.

So first off, they tried this with the EMac, and people demanded that they buy it in other channels. So they would, at the very least, they would sell it on their education store. So I imagine they'll sell it everywhere, and I imagine it'll be in the channel. That's just my guess. I don't think they're going to try to hide it.

I don't mean that, but I just wonder if like it's so, maybe it's like so, And this might be the Chromebook framing of like it is a purpose laptop. I think it's more like it the advantage of selling it on Apple in some ways is now you can say that the MacBook line starts at $599.

And then you click through and you're like, yeah, I'm going to get the MacBook air, right? And I guess at that point it's like the Mac starts a phone and you can get a laptop or you can get a Mac Mini. That's up to you. One more thing I'll throw in here, which is the iPad. Base model iPad.

missing a lot of stuff all the iPads have fun colors that nobody else has because who wants fun you can have money or you can have fun I guess those are your choices

what are they saying I don't understand I could see a parallel here right this is like the equivalent of the iPad which is why it probably will just be the MacBook we didn't even talk about that

no this is going to be Macbook I mean I think we spoke about it before but yeah this will be Macbook right because they're going to give it a proper go and do what it should have done before. iPad, iPad Air, iPad Pro. Macbook, MacBook, Air,

MacBook Pro. iPhone, iPhone, Air, iPhone Pro. Are you getting it yet? This isn't one computer. These are three distinct computers. These are three different computers. And the M5 Ultra, there was also a room from Mark German, that there'll be new Mac Mini models coming next year,

a Mac studio as well, with M5 Max and M5 Ultra chips. Yeah, just so to be clear, what Mr. German is reported. is M5 Ultra is happening and it will be

in a Mac Mini do I have to say the quiet part out loud he doesn't mention the Mac Pro I think and my story to go all the way back around and my story

about five years of Apple Silicon the last segment is Apple has turned over and redesigned every Mac that it sells and refreshed it all for Apple Silicon except for the Mac Pro

which exists in an Apple Silicon version, but they didn't redesign it, unless you argue that they did redesign it, and they called it the Mac Studio, but the premise of the, this is going to make me really, some of my friends are going to be mad at me. The premise of the Mac Pro is entirely invalidated by Apple Silicon, and it's never coming back. And a report like this makes me really think, like, not only do I think, oh, man, what's going to, are they going to kill the Mac Pro? What are they going to do? What are they going to say? And part of me thinks, well, they just need to, they just need to do it because I don't think they're willing to do the stuff required to make

the Mac Pro make sense. And if they're not willing to do it, then it's over. And we've been living for several years now where the best Mac you could buy is a Mac's Mac Studio, not a Mac Pro. That's just where we are. So maybe we should all believe that. Believe it's dead. But I mean, I've been on this bandwagon for a long time also because I think it's hilarious. I know you've been circling the cemetery. But like this product, it didn't make any sense when they announced it. No. Because we went on a different path.

Like we're in a different way. This product only exists because they were really sorry about what they did. They're really sorry. They made a big mistake and they were very sad about it. It's because the trash can was bad. So they had to apologize. So they're like, who this was like, our apology to you was a bad one. We now need to make another one.

because the trash can only existed because they were like was so sorry we neglected the Mac so they made this beautiful thing then they had to apologize yeah it's the apology for the apology and then the rest of the company went in a completely different direction

by the time by the time that shipped it was like no we're over here now we're doing this now now and so I think yes it's done right like it's it's it

it doesn't make any sense as a computer how much space do you want in the case to put nothing in it And Thunderbolt's so fast now that you could put a breakout box if you want to put cards in it or something, right? And the cards you can put in it, there are like four of them because you can't do GPU cards anymore.

And again, this is the point of the five years of Apple Silicon is there's so many GPUs in high-end systems. And there's so much memory that's addressable now that like, I just, I'm sorry. They went in a, I'm not out for the Mac Pro because I think a computer like that. Okay, I know. That's why you're circling the seminary. You're just waiting in the graveyard.

They're holding the funeral and you've got a bullhorn on the outside. You're like, give it up. It's over. See ya. So what I'm saying is it doesn't matter how I feel about the Mac Pro. Apple has moved elsewhere. And it's just not there anymore. That's it.

Happy birthday, Apple Silicon. Happy birthday Apple Silicon. This episode is brought to you by Factor. I don't know about you, but fall always feels like a time for a reset. Everyone's getting back into busier routines, kids are going back to school, and when you add that to the shorter days, finding time to cook can be tough. That's why so many people love Factor. Their chef-prepped, dietitian-approved meals make it easy to stay on track and enjoy something comforting and delicious, no matter

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Bum-Bum-Bum-Bum-Bum-Bum-Bum-Bum-Bum-Bum. Oh, wow. It's the Mark German Hour. Thank you. Yes, Mark German Power Hour. Mark German obviously features very heavily in Ruma Roundup as the sheriff, aka the wizard, as he is known in other places. All of the room.

today are Marks, all of them. Yeah, he's been busy. He's a busy guy. After mentioning the possibility last week, Mark Gohmann is now reporting with much more detail on the deal that is in the off between, offing. Offing. In the offing? Who knows? Between Apple and Google. That would be the awning. If it's happening? I guess awning was already taken because that's a thing that covers the window.

It's an awning. Yeah. I don't think. So it's offing. The offing, not an awning. You take the awning off. It's offing. Anyway, this awning. is worth a lot money, but maybe not that much, was he? They're working on a deal that would see Siri being powered by a white-labeled version of Gemini.

Mark is saying that Apple is set to pay Google $1 billion a year for access to a $1.2 trillion parameter model that they will use on private cloud compute. Apple's current private cloud compute model of their own has 150 billion parameters. So a $1.2 trillion model, that is a lot more. It's more. And I asked Federico who explained this to me like I was five years old.

I'm connected. And the way that I kind of took away from him is it's the size of a memory. It's like if you imagine a brain and a brain can keep information in it, if you had 150 billion pieces of information,

it's a lot of information. But if you were able to remember 1.2 million, 1.2 trillion, sorry, pieces of information. There's a lot more information. A lot more. And he talked about, you know,

unconnected last week, the idea that it's probably a mixture of experts model, is the idea that you can have all of these parameters because you've got kind of like a top-level router in your brain that says, what do I need to know what category? And then it activates another part of the model because there's not enough memory to keep all of it active and it's not necessary. And that I likened to like when you go to a library and you look for the, what are they called little cards? Yeah, card catalog. It's kind of. Find out where it is. And then you go there

and you search through all of that stuff. But all this happens incredibly quickly. But you can see, just in numbers terms, that seems like a big job, right? For a billion dollars. Yeah. So last week on the show, we had the rumor of, oh, Apple went with Google for financial reasons. And I was like, oh, I don't know if that's the right decision. Like, they thought that Anthropics model was more capable. I get it now.

Because a billion dollars is nothing. And I cannot imagine that Anthropic were anywhere near that number. They were probably in the hundreds of billions, tens of billions of dollars. Well, yeah, they want money. It's more important to Anthra. And Google is playing a different game. Yeah. And it's bigger picture.

Yeah. And they have an existing billions of dollars a year relationship with Apple that this just gets added to. Probably, yeah, Google looks at this and says, sure, that's an engineering project that's interesting to build it for private cloud compute instead and to white label it. Like, sure, we'll do that. In a way that anthropic would have been like, I don't know. you're going to have to make it work worth our while. It'll be $5 billion a year or whatever. And Apple says...

To these companies, two specific companies, that already have so many arrangements, money flowing backwards and forwards. A billion dollars is actually nothing, right? Like, it's nothing. Both of these companies have like a $100 billion quarter at the last quarter. Indeed.

And there's a transfer of $20 billion. This is nothing. Just for the search deal. So I was thinking why. And I was wondering, this is just pure pontific. Is a billion dollars a big enough number that this doesn't look anti-competitive? I think it's, I think there's enough competition right now in AI that this doesn't look

competitive. Because, I mean, like, a billion dollars is free. Yeah. For these companies, that is free. Like, it's nothing. Like, Apple will probably never give Google any money. Google will just knock a billion dollars at the money that they give them. Yeah. Yeah. The first three weeks of What is the point of them even exchanging money on this? And I'm wondering if it is a legal reason. Like they are doing this as a thing. So Google is not just freely giving Apple this. Well, yeah, you may be right.

I would say also there's a real cost here to Google, right? This is unlike... Yeah, but I don't think a billion dollars covers that. Well, I mean, leaving aside everything else, I think there's a cost just in engineering of how do we, generate a version of this that's a white label that's not Gemini and that is compiled to run on Apple servers and that's a project that has employees on it that doesn't cost a billion dollars a year to do right so if you're saying we'll throw that in there and then we'll throw in a you know what for us

would be you know an enormous amount of money but for them is nothing a cursory amount of money a billion dollars for intellectual property licensing all of that we'll revisit it later all of these things. I don't know. I mean, I, it's, it's an interesting idea. I think Google loves this, I guess this would be any competitive. I think Google loves the idea that the assistant on all smartphones is essentially powered by its technology. But Apple's viewing this as a white label because Apple wants the ability, and this is what would be competitive, is Apple is viewing this as the ability to swap it out for another model, whether it's theirs or someone else's anytime. And there's no, Google doesn't keep any

kind of like purchase in the OS with this because it's not, where'd my Google go? Because it was never Google, it's just Siri. Yeah, so Google, like, that's just ego for Google because they can't talk about it is the expectation from the deal, right? That like, maybe the industry knows and that's enough. Right.

But Mark is saying that it is likely that the deal will include the, like, it's not going to say Siri power by Gemini and Google won't be able to go out and say we power, Siri. Right. And yes, in theory, Apple is able to swap the model out, right? And there is, there is reporting from Mark

that Apple's going to continue working on their own models in the background. Right. And that yet, but. But doesn't he also report that they're going to call this an Apple Foundation model version 10 or something? Oh, I didn't catch that. I saw that somewhere and I thought, well, they are still going to have that.

That is, yeah, but I'm like, yeah, I think, I think the point you're about to make, which is, does Apple even need, even if they could, which they maybe can't, make a model to beat Google or someone else? Do they even need to? They don't need to, but the point you isn't making it, but they could swap it out.

I just don't think technically they may be able to. I just wonder at a certain point if you actually kind of can't, or you're going to make, it's going to work weird, it's going to go wrong, it's not going to go as people expect. I think AI models get swapped out all the time. Sure. And at some point, they're going to need to swap the old Google model out for a new model. At which point, it doesn't necessarily have to be a Google model.

It could be somebody else's model. It could be an Apple model. I'm kind of a believer that these AI models are going to be pretty commoditized. I think they are in a lot of places they are already. And so Apple, what this comes down to, and it's a big picture. kind of topic maybe for another day, but what it comes down to is what does Apple need to make and does Apple need to make this? We proceeded under the assumption, I think Apple has proceeded under the assumption that Apple needs to make its own LLM on its products. I don't know if they do.

I don't know if they do it. They certainly, and I hope for their sake that they don't because they seem to not be able to. Yes. And my expectation is this deal actually makes it even harder for them to do so. Because if Apple have, and I'm sure they do, but like reporting would suggest that every star has moved to matter. A dwindling number of people are working on Apple's

foundation models, and if you're working on Apple's foundation models and Apple has decided they're just going to use Googles, why would you not go work at Google? Or Facebook or enthropic. Anywhere. Anywhere. Because it doesn't feel like they're prioritizing your efforts.

And I think Apple's endgame here is one of two things. either the commodification of this means that it doesn't matter where they get it and it's all coming from the same thing and because keep in mind it's not really a ticking clock on google apple and google have had the search deal forever and they wanted to go on forever apple and google they're not enemies anymore an lLM deal and they that could go on forever i think the only way this ends in a in a way where apple is now building its own models is if either apple is so against the wall that they need to spend $10 billion buying someone.

And five years. Or... Oh, I'm buying. Sorry. Sorry. Yeah. And buying some other company. Or there's the bubble bursts. They wait. And Apple scoops somebody up on the cheap who has a bunch of engineers who are working on cutting edge models. And the model and all the IP. And the model and all the IP.

And they just sort of scoop it in. I was thinking somebody mentioned Mistral, which, which, because, oh, Federico mentioned it. because they use, that's the French company, and they have an expert model like that. And I thought, I find that intriguing. And some people have linked to Apple and Mistral in the past. And what I thought is, well, what I like about that is, you're not hiring Silicon Valley engineers at that point.

You're hiring European engineers. And they might be harder to steal. And they might be in a different environment and not know all the same people. but I think the most likely scenario, yeah, is that Apple will just use these companies until a bubble burst. If I'm Tim Cook at this point in 2025, that's the route that I take.

It's like, we've got to give up. This is not working for us. We can't do this. We've got a good partner. For whatever reason, we can't do this. We've got a good partner. We have multiple good partners. Yes.

Because Open AI is a good partner to them. It's powering a lot of their stuff. Yeah. Very telling that Open AI isn't doing this. Right. They obviously have a very good relationship because over the two years, That got deeper and deeper.

I think the AI startups don't want to make this deal. They don't want to be commoditized. Because they don't want to be commoditized. They don't want to be white-labeled. They want to build their own products. Google don't care. Google does not care. All Google needs is for chaty-b-de-go-away.

That's all they need. Whatever it takes. For Google, it's terrible if Anthropic or Open AI get this deal with Apple. Like, it's just not good. They don't want this. weirdly at the same time that Gemini is not in iOS that still hasn't happened

that I can't use Gemini although I still wonder if some of that was they were waiting for a lot of legal things to blow over. Possibly. But I'm still expecting that to happen

and it has yet to happen. I think it would be a benefit for Apple if they could just say like they did an X code choose. Log in, here's our interface. They hand the API

to all the AI companies and they say we're going to let our users choose what they want to use as an add-on and it'll be integrated at the system level and it'll be whatever so like if I've got Claude I'll use Claude if I've got chat GPT I'll use that

yeah I mean I think that in the end you probably want to do that as a just from a user's perspective like everybody's got their favorite if you've got a favorite if you're paying for one of these you'd like to be able to integrate that into your computer search histories there and you know the searches that you make are saved in your account. But yeah, if I'm Tim Cook

now, you kind of go to give up trying to do your own thing. Give up. It isn't working for you. And you are, I think, understandably unwilling to pay what META is paying because META is being silly. They're being very silly. Right? Like

you do not need to pay individuals a billion dollars to work for you. Meta is being a little silly. They are acting as if this is an existential crisis, but I sometimes feel like that's the only way META does anything, right? Remember when the Metaverse was an existential crisis

and they needed to spend all the money possible and rename the company. For the Metaverse, I think it's a little bit like that. Well, because I think these are Zuckerberg, right? Yeah. Because Mobile was an existential crisis. It was one that he missed and it was a big problem for him. He hates it. He never wants

to happen again. And so he treats them all like this and also because he can, because he has utter control over the company, which is very rare. Like Zuckerberg has more control over metta than Tim Cook does over Apple because of the way that the shares are like that. Sure. No one can tell him what to do, essentially. But anyway, if I'm Tim, I wait now. Yeah. Because you're not going to be able to produce something that is competitive

and a time frame that you're happy with. And you don't need to. And you don't need to. Now that you've accepted. Everyone will work with you. Now that you've accepted that your stuff can't get there. Yeah. Which is very freeing. And I think, I think that's behind the whole Rockwell and Federigi being put in charge of this stuff instead of John Gianandrea. I think in the end

that's going to be what the net result is. You admit that it's not going to come from Apple. You've got good partners who will make a product because remember

people like Federigi and Rockwell are focused on the end product that ships to customers. That's what they do. It's all seen through the lens of what are we going to ship to customers. Not what are we going to build internally, but what are we going to ship to customers?

And the moment that they're satisfied that they can integrate with a third-party LLM running on their private systems that generates a level of utility for the users that's good. It's over. Like that allows them to give up on building it themselves for now. Yeah. And so like the way I love this because, that you here it's like the Tim Cook sheet from Mike is step one give up step two find a partner

step three step three weighted out just wait because step for profit all the while every step is profit for Apple by the way yeah always I'm I'm I'm not making a statement here but I'm I'm already tired of people talking about the bubble bursting I'm tired of this conversation already because it's just being taken as a given and everyone just keeps saying it over and over and over again I don't know what's going to happen and anybody that tells you to know what's going to happen is wrong because nobody knows what's going to happen

it is I think abundantly clear that it will not continue on the trajectory that it is on maybe it just declines maybe the industry doesn't completely implode maybe it does maybe it doesn't I don't know I think the only scenario that hurts Apple is if this dream that people have that there's going to be a breakthrough

that is enormous and not replicable, right? The idea that Facebook gets or chat GPT gets general intelligence. Like somebody actually breaks into this thing as a brain. And then what? And it's and, but this is the thing. Not only does that have to happen,

I would argue that there's not evidence for either of those things. I don't think there's any evidence that an LLM is going to become a human brain, a sentient brain. I also don't think there's any evidence that any AI breakthrough will not be replicated by every other AI researcher

within six months. Because that has happened absolutely every single time. It's like deep seek, whoa! And then within weeks, everyone's been risen in. Right. But like my point is like, yeah, I'm just finding it frustrating to hear people keep saying it. I get it.

But what I'm driving towards is then the third point in the Tim Cook plan something economically is going to change, which is going to make one of these companies very attainable for you. Right. And you just wait until that point. Right.

And at that point, you'll know, by the way, because here's the other thing. If it's a commodity, maybe working with Google is fine. Yeah. Right? Like, if it's a commodity... Apple doesn't have a search engine.

Exactly. I mean, they do, but they only deploy it for a couple of things because it doesn't matter. Same as they're still a foundation model. They will still have ML models to do stuff. But it's going to be, they say,

Google says Apple will still have models that route. Sure. Right? So like that's still an LLM. It's on the iPhone. And it's, you know, hopefully means that I'll still be able

to turn my lights off of that. I've been to go and query a 1.2 trillion parameter model up in the cloud. I prefer not to. I would prefer not to have to do that. Yeah. So I agree. I think that there is a very limited number of scenarios here

that don't play out in a way that's okay for Apple, because I, unless there's one provider of this technology and they've got Apple cornered and nobody else has it, I think Apple will be fine because, you know, the only other risk is that this technology completely makes it so nobody ever needs an iPhone anymore, which I just don't think it's going to happen. I think, I think that the AI hype cycle, dreaming that it's going to replace literally everything else is too far. And, and you're right, Either they have good partners and they can just use good partners or they scoop somebody up whose economics have gone upside down and are really smart and have a lot of great intellectual property and employees and now are on hard times and they get brought in to do it. Like there's just, Apple's got a lot of options there.

But this is the start of that. Yep. This is the start of that. Mark Gorman is also reporting about some satellite features that Apple is work. working on. They say that Apple is building an API that will let developers add satellite connections to their own apps, that it may bring satellite connectivity to Apple Maps, so users could navigate without cellular or Wi-Fi access. If you forget to download your maps and you get lost, you can get the over satellite, yeah. They may add enhanced satellite

messaging that supports photos in addition to basic text. And as previously reported by the information, next year's iPhones will support something called 5GNTN, which lets cellular towers, tap satellites for increased coverage. It sounds like there must be a thing that the phone has to do to acknowledge that it's, you know, that it needs to use that extra kick for some remote cell tower that can then get some data via satellite,

that kind of thing. Quote, the company aimed to let users stay connected while their iPhone is in a pocket car or even indoors, eliminating the need to physically point the device towards the sky. The approach is known in the industry as natural usage. I just like that. Natural usage. Natural.

Just natural. I don't know how any of this works. And it doesn't seem like there's a business model that would suggest in any way that it works because there is absolutely zero money going anywhere for this. What German says is, so German's piece is more about like potential transformation of the wireless industry via satellite. And then he kind of wedges Apple in there. I just don't think, I just don't think Apple needs to be wedged in there. I think there is a real question because, so,

Echo Star, which ran Dish Network, they had a bunch of spectrum licenses that they bought, this idea that, or that SpaceX bought for Starlink from EchoStar. So the idea is, will satellite internet replace cellular or augment cellular? Right now, a lot of the carriers have satellite plans, T-Mobile has a deal with SpaceX. there's this idea that maybe the future of your cell phone's data signal

is a blend of towers and satellites. Now, towers are expensive. Satellites are also expensive. Towers are limited. Satellites are also limited. I think that it's very easy to run away with satellites and be like, oh, satellites will fix everything. It's like, I don't think that is necessarily true.

No, I don't understand it. But the idea that you can augment all of those coverage gaps and maybe even some of your low with this NTN stuff, your low coverage areas where data can't get there easily with satellite is an interesting idea. How does that change the economics of the cell carriers? How much are they cutting in SpaceX for that or other companies that have satellite constellations? I think it's all out there. I'm not sure. It feels to me, again, this is very Apple, very Tim Cook Apple. It feels to me like Apple's like, you know what, we're going to experiment with some really nice basic features and then we're going to kind of let the rest of

it play out. And I think that's okay. But they are experimenting with some nice basic extensions like they added texting, right? That was new. The idea that you could download a map of your location when you're lost and not on a signal. That's nice. An API, which would obviously be like you have to use that API. You've got to have very limited data and you've got to warn the user and there's a whole bunch of stuff, but that would let a third party have access to the satellite. This is all, you know, this is all fine. And then in the meantime, if it turns out in five years, your cell plan just comes with full on satellite, whatever, okay. Right. Sure. Mark is also reporting that Fitness Plus is looking a little shaky. So quote,

the 999 amount service suffers from high churn and offers little revenue upside. That has, quote, enough loyalty from its small fan base that it can't be shut down without a backlash. Oh, no. A backlash. There's a backlash for some very fit, strong people. So you've got to worry about that. Fit backlash. You don't want that. Muscle backlash. You do not want that because that's powerful.

They could get you. They're going to Pilate you to death. Does anybody really pay just for this? I can't imagine. Like, my expectation is over 95% of the people using Fitness Plus have it as part of Apple One. And

that's, that's actually my argument here, which is like, you don't, I don't, first of I don't believe that the small fan base backlashing it being shut down would make Apple have any pause at all. Yeah. I do think it would be bad for the services narrative. It would look, it just look bad. Apple shuts down one of its services that generates revenue when it's saying, look how much money you're making. And Mark German makes the point, like, it doesn't really cost that much. And they're just paying for the trainers. They've already built all the infrastructure. They built a studio. It doesn't really cost that much. Apple makes a lot of money. It's really not, you know, it's just dropping the bucket.

I, my feeling is having more stuff that you stuff in the Apple One bag is valuable. And also a fitness service that you get for free is very aspirational. Yeah. It makes people feel good. Not free. Look at this. This is included. Like, oh, yeah. And it fits with the Apple watch and it fits with Apple's message. With their heart rate. Yeah. And every time they have the Apple watch, because the Apple Watch don't have too much to talk about. They can always talk about Fitness Plus as well. So, it's a nice mixture. Again, maybe it's just the London air or something, but I'm going to get a little, a little spiky here. Okay. Stabby. This feels like somebody at Apple who's cranky about fitness, talk to Mark Kerman. Well, yes, because don't forget, there's been a reshuffle. Yeah. And the person who's in charge of Fitness Plus, Jay Blanick,

has been deprioritized net reshuffle. There is allegations against Blanick of misconduct, some of which Apple were refuted. But he also got, like somebody, you know, came, Dr. Sumble went in over him during all the reshuffle, right? So she's in charge of this whole group now.

It appears from the outside, like there has been a demotion of sorts. Yeah. Even though he still remains at the company. And fitness was his, Bailey Way. Fitness is his whole thing. I just I got I got a real vibe from this though like there's somebody inside Apple who talks to Mark Krummer and who's like what the heck is going on with Fitness Plus? It's a loser. They, you know, they'd like to kill it, but we can't because everybody complain about it. It just sounds very catty kind of to me, this whole tone of this thing. And again,

for me, I think it's interesting because what's being reported here is it's got not a lot of uptake and a lot of churn. I'm like, okay. Everything else we've just said, though, is like, yeah, you just got to keep it. Apple's not going out of business anytime soon. Services matter. Stuffing another service in the Apple One bundle, especially one that is aligned really well with so many other Apple products. I'm sorry. Like, it just makes sense for that product to exist, even if, even if it's mostly just Apple One people who are using it. And yeah, if they need to make some changes to management to get to try to make it more popular, great. but like it just fits so well

that I can't see them giving up on it but it is an interesting data point regardless of how kind of like grumpy the source is here that it is perceived at least among some people inside Apple that Fitness Plus has kind of lost its way and is not performing. Fair enough.

But I'm maybe not surprised about that. I'm not surprised about it. Like if you told me there was a problem of Apple News I would believe you as well. You know what I mean? Like oh Mike there's a problem at Apple News No way. It's like, I don't use these services, so maybe that's the problem. Right. Like, if you said there was this issue at Apple TV, I would be like, really? It seems like they're firing all cylinders right now, right? Like, right. But there are these certain areas where it's like, well, yeah, I mean, at this point, these just feel like also rounds. Like, these are services that if Apple didn't have the bundle and didn't have a services narrative would not exist anymore. Right. They will look, puns that they took and shut down. But they're perfectly, and as somebody who doesn't really, I only use Apple News. Plus, literally, to read articles from places that I don't have a subscription, but they're

in Apple News Plus. That's it. That's all I use it for. But I do use it for that. And again, it's a benefit of my Apple One bundle. Yeah. And there is something to be said, these are the stocking stuffers, right? These are not the presence under the tree.

These are the, is it too early for me to use this metaphor? No, I don't think so. These are, but the stocking stuffer, that's really what I mean. They add bulk. They're not, if you want to say that it's a, uh, It's like a side dish on the Thanksgiving plate. Whoa. Keeps going.

We're now going backwards. It is, it's like that, right? It's not going to provide the nutrition necessarily, but it's good to have an array there. And I do think these add. Your guest would be mad if you just gave them the turkey. Yeah. And if it's something appropriately seasonal and it's aligned with the values of your Thanksgiving dinner, all the better. And that is what's going on with fitness.

It's aligned. Apple's values, just like mashed potatoes. This episode is brought to you by ExpressVPN. True or false? Here's a game we're going to play. You've got to shout it back at me. I want the listeners to shout it back at me.

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Our thanks for ExpressVPN for their support of this show and all of Relay. It is time for Ask Upgrade Questions. It's beautiful lasers. I had to get out of the way of those. It's very dangerous. Dodge those lasers. Very dangerous. Matthias wants to know.

I know it's not possible regularly, but I enjoy hearing the two of you in an in-person episode. Do you think that it's better or does the physical presence make it different? to do an audio podcast. Oh, I don't know. Well, I actually, I do. So it makes it difficult in ways because it encourages bad practices, right, that we try to avoid with video, like earlier when I bang the desk, which again, I apologize

for, all right? I'm sorry that I did it, but I just did it. I was excited. But also, in the past, we're trying to talk about this too much, but we've done episodes where we've refused to stay on microphone because we were too excited to look at iPhones that we had in our possession. These are things we would not do and do not do when we're separate from each other.

And similarly, even though this episode has a video version every single week available on YouTube, neither of us are looking at each other while we're recording. And that stops the ability for kind of like the video mindset and the visual mindset

to disrupt what is astronomically predominantly an audio podcast. Exactly. Like our video viewers, we love you, we love all of you video viewers, but it is a very, very small percentage of our overall audience and so we don't want to

I'm not interested in making the show more visual at the extent of the bulk of our viewers of our audience no this is an audio podcast that has a video version so that is kind of the downside of it but I prefer the conversation when we're in person

oh yeah yeah yeah like it is a better conversation to have it is a nicer conversation to have it's easier it flows better we interrupt each other less like all that stuff it works really well i like a lot right and those uh we edited it out but i i i gave mike a little look and uh and during an ad read earlier and he had to stop and do it again so there's stuff like that too yeah carlos writes in and says what is the oldest school or old schoolist what would it be old school because old school oldest school old schoolist old schoolist mac thing that you two still do regularly out of

habit. For example, dragging an external drive to the trash to unmount it. Hey, wait a second. That is weird to do. I do that. That's a weird thing to do. Why is that old school? It's right click. I mean, you could do that too. No, but that's what you should do. I mean, honestly, you shouldn't be unmounting them like anyone. You should just pull them out and it's fine. Why are we doing this? Oh, no, but then it yells at me. Yeah, but no, but I think the system should just be like, whatever. Oh, I agree. It's 2025. I agree. There's no disc spinning anymore. I agree. I agree. Let me yank it out. Leave me alone.

Even like a disc image, though, you can't yank out a disc image. Ah, gotcha. Yeah, but you know what I do with those? What? Well, one, they're not on my desktop because I'm not an animal. Oh, yeah. They're in the finder.

They're in the finder. And I just hit the little eject button. Yeah, that's true. That's what I do to all of these things. That's true. But if I have attached a USB drive, I will generally just drag it to the... I'm side dock.

It's not that tall. It's on the desktop. Yeah, but you've clicked. and you're drag, drag, drag, drag, you know you do? Right click, eject. That's the way to do it, I think. I guess this is my answer. Yeah, I looked at this question, and I don't think I have a good answer

because I don't think I do a lot of those types of things. I mean, maybe if I have habits from what is almost 20 years ago, that is old school, but I don't know what they are in such a way that it's like, oh, you need to get somebody in here who is younger than you. To observe me and the strange things that I do. But, I mean, I guess, you know, I just. stage manager, I think that's weird. It's not old school. It's not old school though. Someone has

written in it. New school. I don't have that name in front me right now who wants me to explain how are you stage manager. On a quiet a week. Yeah, we'll say that. We're going to talk about this. Say that for some other week. Because I have multiple ways. Yeah, you can talk about it. I'll go get some tea. Yeah. And it's just Mike's time. That's my special time with the listeners.

All right. I talk about stage manager to everyone. Makes sense. And how I use it and why I'm crazy. But I use it anyway. A lot of shift clicks. A lot of shift clicks. Can't wait for that. age manager. I can't think of something that I do that would be old school. You're right on

things with pens. On the Mac. Oh, on the Mac. On the Mac. I mean, I do lots of old school list things on my own time. I was listening to You type earlier today. I was a lot of fun because that's the real clicky. That's a good clicky. That's old school. It's a good keyboard. I mean, this is an audio podcast. I can go

get the keyboard. No. Okay. Tom says, you spoke about a rumor that the iPad Mini is set to get an OLED screen and improved water resistance. This discussion led to a comparison of people using the iPad Mini as a reading device like a Kindle and perhaps want to be sitting by a poll while reading it. If this is Apple's angle, do you think we could also get a nanotexture display option? Oh boy. Wouldn't that be fun? For a $2,000 iPad Mini? Thus far, all of Apple's goals have been for the iPhone as well as the

iPad Mini to just make the screen less reflective, not do a nanotexture something. It feel, nanotexture feels like a pro feature to me more than it does for something like this. I agree 100% that one of the great reasons to have a Kindle or similar e-reader is in bright sunlight,

it's clear as a bell in a way that a back of the screen just can't be. So maybe, probably not, but maybe. It would be fun, but I don't, I think it'd be too much.

Yeah. I think it's too much. That would be cool though, because then it would be kind of, It was waterproof and had no glare. It would be actually a pretty great e-reader. Oh, yeah. Oh, cool side.

Yeah. Patrick says, All the earnings talk has got me thinking, what Apple sales statistic would you most want to see if you could magically get Tim to tell you? So you look at these charts all the time. Is there a piece of information you're like, my life would be easier talking about generating these charts

if I had an extra piece of information? I miss units. sales. Yes, that's mine too. They stopped reporting unit sales. They only report revenue now, which means we can say that the revenue went up, but we can't say they sold more iPhones because we don't know. They might have just sold more expensive iPhones, and there's no way to tell.

I think the spirit of this question is, I would love to see unit breakdowns of sales. I would love to see officially how many different, how many they sold of the different iPhone models or of the different Mac model. Because what they would say is, we sold 20 million iPhones. But I want to know, did you show 10 million iPhone Pro, 5 million iPhone Air? I would love to see that. Now, there are proxies for all of that stuff, right? We know a lot of app developers who can look at their stats and see who's using their app.

And from that kind of glean what the sales figures are, but it's hard, it's not real. It's not complete. I would love to see, yeah. Because there's self-selecting audiences that do this. kind of stuff. I would love to see Apple if Tim let me peek. It would probably be something like that. I know some people would say the Google search revenue

would be. But we know that now. Yeah, but what is it? $20 billion. And is it going down? Is it going up? There's a one analyst who wanted to know that. I don't know. I mean, for me, it would be, I'd like some more granularity about what's going on. Maybe they're ad sales business. Yeah. What's going on

with that? But really, bottom line, it would be unit sales and breaking out per It's like I would love to know like do you sell more iPads or Macs or Mac or Max? You know. In number. In number.

Probably iPads. You know what I mean? Like things that end like do you sell more iPad Pro than MacBook Pro? They used to stuff like that. They used to break out Macsales by desktop and laptop. Yeah. And it's been so long now that I legit don't know whether that number is 9010 or 80, 20 or 7525.

Yeah, but it probably isn't. It's been so long that whatever it was is not what it is. Yeah, but I would love that. Even once, I would love that because I refer a lot to how, in when I'm writing articles, I'll say, you know, most Macs that are sold their laptops. And I used to be able to quote the number. I used to be able to see two thirds of Macs sold their laptops. And then it was three quarters of Macs sold their laptops. What is it now? I don't know. I don't know. 80%, 80%, 90%, I just don't know. So that would be, that would be a fun if I had one fact to get, it would be like, why don't you give me the last year Mac sales desktop versus laptop, percentage-wise?

That would be interesting. And Isaac wants to know, I'm curious what photo settings you're using on your iPhone. I've been shooting in ProRour 48 megapixel for a while, but I'm not convinced it's worth the massive file size. I'll just say, Isaac, if you're asking that question, then no, you shouldn't be doing that. Yeah.

Right, like, because that particular setting, the ProRour 4-8 megapixel, it's a very specific type of customer. Yeah, unless you're... I think if you're asking that question, you're not that customer. Unless you're shooting and then going into something like Lightroom and doing a bunch of edits. And even then, I'd only do it when I was shooting for the purpose of going into Lightroom.

Otherwise, I would go back to the... They make a really nice, uh, binned version that is, you know, 12 or 24 megapixels. That is fine. efficiency image capture HIC, 24 megapixel. That is the standard

and that is what I use. There are times when I will flip it over to the 48 and do something specific or what I'll actually do is open hell I didn't do it there because I have that set up to take pictures in that way

so I'm not messing with my camera stuff but no, I think if you're asking just use the default that Apple recommends because it is going to get you probably more reliable photos that you're going to be able to more easily use

to do what you want with, even if you don't have the flexibility of raw, but that's a lot of effort, I think. I wonder if maybe your images might be worse. Like, if you're just like taking a photo? No, I think maybe the pro-Raw, they generate... They've done all the color and all that kind of stuff. A standby one, but yeah, it's overkill for almost everybody.

I agree. If you'd like to send in a question for us to answer in a future episode of the show, just go to UpgradeFeedback.com. You can also send us in your phone, follow-up and feedback questions or that kind of stuff. We didn't talk about

any of the 26.1 or 0.2 stuff this week ran out of time but I would like to look about it next week so if you have thoughts on 26.1, 26.2. I didn't install any of the betas because I was planning an international trip.

A little fun fact about that. So I decided to wait. I want to talk about the podcast chapter stuff and things like that so if you have questions, send them in. The same as like, I would like to know, I would like to know what people are doing with liquor glass

with the tinting stuff So if you have very particular feelings on this I will say maybe if you think that your feelings are interesting in some way right in and let me know don't just be like And then we'll judge No, don't just be like I turned it off Like I don't need that

No But like you know if you have someone to say Interesting observation I want to know about it And you go to upgradefeeback.com Don't forget to go to upgrade your wardrobe.com where you can buy our merchandise It's not available for much longer

But you can go get it And go to get Upgradeplus.com when you get the longer ad-free version of the show each and every week. This week we're going to talk about Jason and I watching an F-1 race together. Yeah, which we did yesterday.

It was great fun. You can find the video version of this show by searching for Upgrade Podcasts on YouTube. Just go check it out. Just go take a look this week. It's fun. You can see the two of us together. We're waving.

We're waving at you. We're here in a mega studio. Thank you to our sponsors this week to find people at Express VPN, Factor and Delete Me. But most of all, thank you for listening. Until next time. So goodbye, Jason, Snell. Goodbye.

Mike Hurley. We're shaking hands.