We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network - BTC012: Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis w/ Plan B & Willy Woo (Bitcoin Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to TIP. Hey everyone, welcome to this Wednesday's release of the podcast where we're covering Bitcoin. On today's show, I'm really excited to bring you both of our guests because they're two of the biggest names in the space, and that's Willie Wu and Plan B. Both of these gentlemen have over a half a million followers on Twitter alone, and the reason why is they have some of the most fascinating on-chain analysis, charts, models, and creative thoughts on what drives Bitcoin cycles. During our discussion, we talk about some of the metrics that they find important today, their favorite metrics for looking at trends, the impact of central bank digital currencies, their thoughts on further liquidity shocks to the overall economy, concerns or risks moving forward and much, much more. So without further delay, here's my interview with Willie and Plan B.

Starting point is 00:00:48 You're listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by the Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pish. Okay, so like I said in the introduction, I've got Willie Wu and Plan B both here together. Man, am I excited to have this conversation? How are you guys doing? I'm great, Preston. And Willie, I'm very much looking forward to talk to the two of you. Yeah, likewise, I've been looking forward to this all day, actually.

Starting point is 00:01:25 I think this is the first time we've spoken, Plain D. Quite an honor. Likewise. So, guys, I want to start off with, plan B, you recently put out a picture just showing where we're at in this cycle versus the previous four-year cycles that have happened before. Talk us through this a little bit and then tell us whether you think that this is a good way to measure it, to look at things. Just give us some of your ideas. So that's a chart that shows the current price track from the halving, the time of

Starting point is 00:01:54 the halving. That was May 2020. And then you compare it to the other two halvings in 2016. and 2012. And what you see is that the current price track is right in between 2012 and 2016 price track. So it's, it already tells a lot, right? Because there's a lot of people thinking that cycles are going to be longer and lower. But well, this data point shows it's right in the middle of the last two of a half things and not lower. So that's one point. The other point is The chart also shows that after the initial bull market, it will sort of stabilize at an equilibrium after that bull market. So it goes down and it stabilizes.

Starting point is 00:02:40 And for 2013, that was around, well, if you compare to current price levels, around a $300,000 level. And if you look at the more current 2017 bull run, that sort of stopped at the 100,000 level. And I find those very interesting, of course, because those are exactly the price levels of my stock to flow model, 100,000, and stock to flow cross-asset model, the $28,000 level. So, yeah, I like that chart. It's very intuitive. It's very simple. There's no models. Yeah, maybe the model targets that I plot in there.

Starting point is 00:03:16 But I think for people new to Bitcoin, it's good to see that there is a very distinct pattern after the halvings. That's a very interesting phenomenon in Bitcoin. So, yeah, I would recommend learning everything about halvings, what that is, what that means, and it also price-wise. Willie, what do you think about using the previous halving cycle, maybe the number of days, the percent that it's moved is kind of a metric to understand what might be happening this time around. What are your thoughts? It's absolutely obvious. It makes a large difference. You know, I picture it is, it's kind of like it's a shove, right?

Starting point is 00:03:56 It's a shove by, like, if you're seeing the bathtub and you kind of push the water at the right time, and Bitcoin has this little push, the supply shock push on the market, the sell pressure halves, because the new supply is, at the rate it's coming onto the market is halving each time. So, yeah, you get the shove and then it sets up this resonance in our Bitcoin cycles. actually all the crypto, the entire crypto space circulates around these four-year cycles of Bitcoin's harbening. And so no matter what asset in crypto you're analysing, you're locked into these four-year cycles because Bitcoin's really the huge kind of 800-pound gorilla in the room, which all

Starting point is 00:04:39 assets orbit around. And, you know, that shove tends to last, if you look back at the charts, it tends to last well over a year. And, you know, my thinking is that you get this year of momentum and then that develops this kind of, I guess, you know, the upward price movement from the lower cell pressure and accelerates the price upwards. And then people get that kind of phomo effect. And people start buying and you get this run up in price and the momentum sort of loses its steam. And around the December after the harvoning, like the year after the halving. We tend to have seen all the market tops.

Starting point is 00:05:20 And I think that's because people sell to pay their taxes because they've just had this year of ridiculous gains. And so generally agreeing with Plan B here that I'm not subscribed to this lengthening cycle thesis, more that this four-year cycle is the lock-in the tax season of the December after the harvening. The year after the happening is the sell pressure that locks us back into this bearish market. So, PAMB, you and I talked a little bit offline about this idea of the four-year cycle being broken into thirds. And the first third being the bull market, the price action is going up. The second third is the sell-off. And then the third portion of the four-year cycle is the reversion back to the mean or the stock-to-flow valuation. We've never talked about it publicly.

Starting point is 00:06:11 So I'm kind of curious to hear your thoughts. And if I was going to describe it to somebody who understands how the protocol works, so you have 210,000 blocks in a four-year cycle. And if you would divide that by three, every 70,000 blocks is a major inflection point. So this move that we're seeing right now, I would guess we're probably like 36,000 blocks into it from the halving. So there's about 34,000 blocks remain until we get to that 70,000 mark where we would have met an inflection point in the pass. Now, whether that plays out again moving forward, I have no idea. But historically speaking, that would be about halfway through this bull market. So I'm kind of curious what your thoughts

Starting point is 00:06:51 are on the idea of splitting it into thirds and using block height as maybe a good metric to understand where inflection points have occurred. That's a very interesting point, because although we don't have much halvings to look back at, only two, and that's why this third halving will be very interesting to sort of verify this view. But if we look at last two a halfings, then indeed you see a bull market that's, well, in 2013, it was like 17 months. In 2017, it was 13 months. So on average 15 months, which is about the 70,000 blocks that you're describing. And of course, we see the current track right in the middle. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if indeed the next all-time hive, if you will, will be at existing.

Starting point is 00:07:37 or around the 70,000 blocks after the halving, which would put it somewhere end of this year, December, probably. So yeah, that's very obvious. And it's also very interesting because you see the blocks online, but you can see much more in online chain analytics. So you see this, why is there a bull market after the halving, for example? Is there any logical reason? And I think there is, especially if you look at all the own chain data.

Starting point is 00:08:03 And Willie will probably recognize this. but you see this shortage actually far before the halving. It's like a wave of constant demand or even constantly increasing demand. And then the supply, of course, is fixed. And then it gets halved. And after that halving, there's a nonlinear dynamic that sharply increases this shortage. And it's like a wave that's hitting the beach. It gets higher and higher and higher and it breaks.

Starting point is 00:08:31 And it's so interesting to see that on chain. And the same in the second period. We look at, so the first third, if you will, is the bull market. Then we get the bear market, if you will, where people FOMO'd in in the last part of the bull market. And they can't handle the volatility, the weak hands, as we like to call them. So they're selling. A normal human psychology is also there, right? There's FOMO, there's fear.

Starting point is 00:08:59 And you see this fear in that second third of the cycles. And after that second part of the cycle, you get the last part, which is that you climb out of the bottom of the bear and you sort of stabilize around the price level that is reflective of the demand and the supply at the time. And then it slowly builds towards the next half thing. Very interesting to look at it. So, Willie, a lot of people listening to this conversation right now might be fairly new. and you're the expert of on-chain data and kind of reading where that's going to take us kind of moving forward. I'm curious what some of the trends are that you're seeing today that people listening

Starting point is 00:09:40 might find interesting. You know, the on-chain data, it's very interesting in that every cycle is, it's completely different, and as is this one. The one that has been very interesting to me is that there's just so much of, you know, the coins that have been moved off the exchanges. And, you know, like, is plan B might break the cycle into these three phases? I break the bull market into three phases. And you kind of have this accumulation ban that, you know, buyers step in.

Starting point is 00:10:14 You'll see this price floor. You've seen it in every cycle. There's a floor that it doesn't drop behind below because buyers will just keep scooping up those cheap coins. And then you get this initial breakout of that. downward move. And that's the initial early part of the bull market. It's popped. And then you get this bit where that settles. And typically, you know, traditional investors, we call that the reaccumulation phase of the bull market. And with Bitcoin, because we've got this ledger,

Starting point is 00:10:45 you can actually see the capital flows. And this reaccumulation phase coincides with the inventory sitting on, you know, these exchanges where a lot of people store their coins, where a lot of people speculate and you'll notice that the inventory starts to drop these players come in and they buy those coins and they take them off the exchanges they put them into cold storage and they just keep accumulating and you'll see this kind of depletion in the last cycle we had five months and this cycle has been i think 11 going on 12 months and i'm not even sure if it's over yet and so this phase has been going on for over two times longer than normal And obviously it goes with all this narrative we're seeing with institutions coming in.

Starting point is 00:11:30 It started just before the COVID crash. And that was six months before micro strategy announced that they started acquiring large amounts of Bitcoin. Michael Saylor himself said it was six months that they needed to get ready to buy Bitcoin for that company. But we know that he and his peers bought most likely six months earlier. And that coincided with that the start of the reaccumulation. and that's still going. And what we expect right now is that eventually retail will come in, and that's what we're seeing right now,

Starting point is 00:12:04 is that since with the Bitcoin sort of topped out at 42,000, we've retested around 29,000. And when this consolidation ban of up, up down, up down, shaking out the weak hands that I've just recently bought, we're seeing this quite accumulation of even more whales come in and we're seeing the very first hints of retail. And when retail comes in, you'll see the inventory on spot exchanges increase. Now, they increase because retail are small holders and they tend to store their coins

Starting point is 00:12:40 on the coin basis of this world. And so in the later phases of this bull market, you see the inventory on these exchanges increase. And we're still not seeing that yet. So we're still really early in this phase. It's just mind-blowing how different it is in that the length of that accumulation off exchanges is so long and so deep. And secondly, the amount of whales, which are holders of more than a thousand coins.

Starting point is 00:13:10 So around $35, $40 million of Bitcoin upwards, they're exploding in numbers right now. and we've never seen such a sharp climb in that species of holders. And typically, you'll see that climb early. They'll sort of stabilise near the mid-tit end of the bullmark, and then they start selling. And we're just seeing a rampant climb right now. So it's an incredible bull market this wild. Like technical traders looking at the price say,

Starting point is 00:13:43 this thing's overheated. Now I've never seen a move like this in, my career inside Bitcoin where the price goes a sheer vertical wall, yet the fundamentals of the buying is supporting that. And there's no real path right now for us to go down to, some people are saying $22,000. You know, my modelling were bare floor right now is around 30,000 and a half thousand, I think, I checked this morning. And that's based on the amount of share capital that's coming into the market. So Plan B, you had mentioned that the volatility and how violent it gets at the top is what

Starting point is 00:14:24 really kind of starts removing some of the speculators and then you get the crash that follows. Based on what Willie just said, if this trend of pulling coins off the exchange, corporate buyers stepping in and putting it on their treasury and they're looking at it from a strategic long-term interest of, hey, I'm going to hold this thing for five or ten years, I'm not step. stepping in and being a day trader and trying to capture price movements on a day-to-day basis. So if we see this trend continue, which it has not let up, correct, Willie? This is just the people pulling coins off the exchange is keeping pace. It hasn't slowed down.

Starting point is 00:15:03 Does that mean that that volatility that we've seen at the top, call it 70,000 blocks after the halving, might not be the same? Would that be your expectation? And I guess I'm opening that up to both of you guys. If I may first add to what really said about exchanges where you can see people taking the coins off the exchanges. You can see actually also other stuff on chain. You can see markers that are very specific for a bull market

Starting point is 00:15:27 or markers that are very specific for a bear market. So you can actually really, let me phrase it other ways, if you give me one month of blocks, only on chain blocks, I can tell you without looking at the price if it's a bear market or a bull market. And they're very distinct markers. It's like looking at a radio telescope data. You see these impulses, these spikes, these patterns.

Starting point is 00:15:50 So I totally agree with really that we're in a bull market and in the early phase. So we have a long way to go. If you ask me, we're in the bull market since November, December. So we have at least a half year to go. And volatility-wise, what you see in bull markets normally is that the volatility disappears, right? Because it goes up and up and up and there's less volatility. And then the big volatility comes when the bull market is over. So after the crash, that big crash brings the volatility back.

Starting point is 00:16:22 But there is also a big difference between the 2013 and the 2017 bull markets. For example, the 2017 bull market had six or seven corrections in between and big corrections, like 30% corrections, all the way to the top. We did not see that in 2013. So there was one big plateau, if you will. It jumped from $5 to $100 and then it stayed there for a couple of months, and then it shot up to $1,000. But no corrections in between. So it's very interesting to see what we will be having next few months.

Starting point is 00:16:57 There will be 30% corrections in between, like 2017 or not. But on the whole, I think if we look at the return distribution of this thing, Bitcoin, it's not a normal distribution for sure, of course. It's a very asymmetrical distribution. It depends on how you see it, but it's a distribution that will have volatility, I think, till the end. So it will not be like a classical startup or venture capital or Amazon-like stock that you have the volatility in the beginning. And then slowly, when it goes bigger, the volatility goes out. I know a lot of people see it that way. I don't see it that way.

Starting point is 00:17:34 I think it will stay a very asymmetrical distribution of returns with a lot of, big swings upwards, big swings downwards, and very asymmetric. Like, for example, we have in the last 12 years, we had, I think, two or three down years, and all the other years were up. So the chances of having an up year will be so much higher than the down year. And that asymmetrical part is part of what investors like about Bitcoin, of course. And I also look at on-chain data. You have the price data.

Starting point is 00:18:05 But another thing I look at very frequently is the derivatives market. So in this case, especially the option markets, of course, and they trade volatility, right? So they trade implied of volatility and you can derive implied volatility from the option prices. And these option prices show, well, 80 to over 100% implied volatility still for options out one year from here. So I guess we will have volatility all the way to the end of this year. And I don't see it going away, to be honest. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. All right.

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Starting point is 00:22:49 I want to get back to the derivatives, but I want to give Willie a chance to add his comments. Yeah, the volatility changes a lot over. each cycle, you know, when I look at the price chart, I just see the entire history of Bitcoin etched on it, you know, so I've pulled out the data from the very first day that we had a price, which is in 2009. And not many people see that on their charts because Mount Cox didn't launch until, I think, 2010, 11. And you can see this whole litany of different volatility inprints. You know, for example, the 2013, that was the first major bull cycle where the whole world had access via Mount Gox. So we kind of had our first liquid market. And we had that

Starting point is 00:23:34 double rally, that double pump. And I likened that to like an impedance mismatch of the sheer wall of capital coming in to this tiny asset. And you'll see these ways get set up. And traders will see this in shorter timeframes when there's a huge rally. They see. set up these waves. And that was a 93% correction. And it wasn't a bear market. It was a consolidation. Because you can look at that on the on chain and you can see that the buyers were still accumulating and it was ready for another move up. But anyone in traditional markets would have said that's a crash. I think it crashes anything over 80% or maybe 60%. That was the imprint of volatility from a whole bunch of people coming in and buying quickly and letting that

Starting point is 00:24:24 correct in the last cycle, particularly in the 2018 phase, onwards, we had the invention of Bitnecks and we started to see these very, very, very high volume derivatives being traded. And in that market, you started to see the price being controlled by very high volume traders. And you start to see this different pattern happening. and it just so happens that in this last two years, the whole price of Bitcoin has been trading until recently well above the kind of a, I call it a floor price,

Starting point is 00:25:02 but it's also what you might say is a model of what the organic price is supported by the long-term investors of Bitcoin, not the short-term speculators. And whenever we're high above that organic price, we have a lot of volatility. And what's happening right now is that we've got so much spot buying, actually buying the underlying asset and storing it away that the floor price has been creeping up and creeping up. And you'll see the volatility drop.

Starting point is 00:25:31 It started dropping after COVID. And while people were seeing this price, whips were up and down, up and down, this organic valuation crept up, crept up, and it squeezed the price upwards because the up-down movement couldn't go down anymore, it had to go up. So right now we're seeing this volatility reduction, and that's because Bitcoin's now getting into the spot dominance. We're underlying asset buyers are holding it rather than short-term speculative markets determining the price. And so I think the cycle will see a net reduction. We're already seeing that in volatility. Near the tail end of bull markets, as always, the price starts to get overheated. We start to rise above the

Starting point is 00:26:16 organic valuation. The tops are always formed by lack of buyers. You can actually see this through industry data. You can see it through, you know, like exchange user accounts. The new rate starts to reduce. The wallet companies start to see a reduction of people coming in. And so this sort of like buying and holding organic price doesn't climb. The price still carries on with momentum, but then it whipsawes up and down.

Starting point is 00:26:43 That's when you get this volatility. And so I think that it's going to be really interesting. The setup we've got right now going into this next beer market, I know it's early, but like thinking of the next beer market, I don't know yet. But what I see is leverage is a friend of volatility. And this is the first bull market we've ever had in Bitcoin with significant amounts of leverage in the system. We've got well-developed derivative market. We've got products like BlockFi, which allows you to loan your Bitcoin or put your

Starting point is 00:27:20 Bitcoin out there, gain interest, and or even get a Fiat loan off that collateral. And a lot of those guys, BlockFi has reported that they're using that Fiat to buy more Bitcoin. So essentially, there's a massive leverage coming into the market. So that's probably going to create a pretty volatile bear market. I would say, yeah. So the whole BlockFi thing and the lending, and you look at how much that market, this whole derivatives market has matured since where we were at four years ago,

Starting point is 00:27:53 it's kind of mind-blowing how big this has become. Now, what I'm really interested in is hearing your thoughts on this idea. So when I was listening to an interview with Zach Prince about BlockFi, And the question was, well, why would anybody borrow Bitcoin at 9% interest? Why would somebody do that? And his response was, well, you have one of two situations. You have a corporation that's just looking for working capital really fast and they're going to pay it back almost immediately within 30 days. So it's not a real big deal for them. And the other person is a short seller who has to have Bitcoin in order to sell it short. And I thought to myself, okay, well, that's kind of interesting. And this is just me playing this out. I'm kind of curious to hear your thoughts. Let's say you're a Wall Street type and you're able to sell it short and you come to a place like BlockFi with USD and dollars and you put that up into escrow in order to borrow Bitcoin so you can sell it short. If you're not borrowing or lending Bitcoin, you might not fully understand how this

Starting point is 00:29:00 model works and it's through over collateralization. So if you want to borrow one Bitcoin and let's just say the price of Bitcoin's $35,000, you're going to have to over collateralize that at, I don't know what the amount would be. It comes down to the rates that they use on their site, but you're putting in more than $35,000. You're putting in, call it $50,000 or $60,000, in order to take out that $35,000 Bitcoin. I would imagine, but I don't know for sure, that BlockFi would immediately convert those dollars into Bitcoin in order to hold that in escrow because that's what the lender provided so that they don't have any counterparty risk. So what I find fascinating is you're having these people that are locking up Bitcoin in BlockFi,

Starting point is 00:29:43 in escrow, but they're over collateralizing what they lent out, meaning the amount that's getting locked up that can't go back onto the market is more than what's being dropped into the market into a short sell. So because of over collateralization, of all lending that you're seeing in the space, does this turn into an event that maybe drives the supply suffocation even more than what we've seen in previous cycles? I think it will. And actually I tweeted once that forget about the mass adoption. It's all about arbitrage. And arbitrage will bring this about. And that's essentially what you're describing, lending Bitcoin to go short, lending out your Bitcoin for interest.

Starting point is 00:30:27 There is an entire space right now that's effectively arbitraging the quantitative easing, easy money world with negative interest rates. And I mean, I'm talking from a European perspective with minus 0.5% interest for all accounts with more than $25 in the bank account. We're really looking for alternatives. And what you see right now, if you look at the futures markets for Bitcoin, is a 20%, 15 to 20% base rate. So if you have Bitcoin, you can land it or you can have it, but if you don't have it, you can land it. And then you use that Bitcoin that you have and you sell it one month further or three months or a year further.

Starting point is 00:31:11 That's a short, right? By the way, that's not a naked short. That's not selling a future, selling a Bitcoin that you don't have. That's selling a Bitcoin you have. So there is no risk. You just sell it. And the thing is the future price of Bitcoin is about 20% higher on an annualized basis. than the spot price, the current price.

Starting point is 00:31:29 So if the spot price is 35, then the future market would be a 38 or something. So that's an instant profit with almost zero risks because futures are collateralized daily. To the tune of 20% right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. So you can get a 20% return almost risk-free. And it baffles me.

Starting point is 00:31:50 I really don't understand why not everybody is doing this. Because even if you don't like Bitcoin, don't know what Bitcoin is, you can get Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, and sell it immediately at the same time for 20% more and cash the 20% in foreign exchange of your choice. And that's the game. That 20% of course opens the door to more lending business opportunities. Because if you have cash, if you have funding, if you have Bitcoin, you can get the 20%.

Starting point is 00:32:20 So every percentage below 20%, if you can borrow money for 10 or 5 or even, 0%, that's pure profit. The only restriction here is funding. And I guess that's why those companies are growing so fast and the market is growing so fast. So I also see this whole futures market and derivatives market growth as a opportunity, not as a risk. A lot of people see it as a risk and people suppressing the prices with futures. But I see it as a very natural place where speculators that want leverage, find the Wall Street types that are perfectly okay with a risk-free 20%. Do you think it's a regulatory thing, Plan B, that's holding back?

Starting point is 00:33:05 Like, maybe these big bankers can see the trade, but because of regulatory reasons, they just can't step in and do it with the massive amount of funds that they're sitting on. No, I don't think that's it. I think a lot of those big banks and even insurance companies have commodity funds and commodity mandates on their balance sheet. And they're doing this exact game with gold futures. And then they earn 1% every year, which is laughable indeed compared to Bitcoin. The only thing is that Bitcoin is a new asset, so they don't know it.

Starting point is 00:33:36 And most like 80% of the old traditional banks, the old institutions, I mean, I can say because I work at one. They are captured in this narrative of it's drug money, it's for criminals, it boils the oceans. and they're really stuck into that 2012 narrative still. But the smart guys, the fast guys, the little bit smaller guys, the hedge funds, for example, they're moving fast. And it's fun to watch. And I really don't understand why not everybody is doing this.

Starting point is 00:34:06 And my guess is that more or more people are doing this. Like, every day, more capital gets allocated to this kind of arbitrage, like I see them. And we haven't even talked about the option markets. So I think a lot of the action is going to take place here. You know, on the option side, and I want to get over to Willie, but back in June, the price was, I want to say it was around 8,000 to 9,000. I bought options, long-term call options. They were like, I'd say $3,000 for a $10,000 strike. I was paying $3,000 for these options at a $10,000 strike.

Starting point is 00:34:42 And they mature in December of 21. And so I'm not bringing up because of how awesome the trade has been. bringing it up because the person on the other side of that that wrote the contract had to lock up a Bitcoin for every one of these contracts that I bought until December because they're European-style options. So that Bitcoin has been clawed off the market. It's sitting in escrow, 100% escrow. And it's never coming back on the market until December of 21. It's crazy to me. And it's great because you are happy. And the guy who looked up that Bitcoin is also happy. Happy, yeah. And that's why I think it's a very natural meeting of the minds of people that are

Starting point is 00:35:20 used to 5% interest. The reason why Plan B is saying that the person who wrote the contract to me is happy is because they were in the market to just capture that spread that he's talking about, that 10 to 20% spread between the long and short. So they had a short-term focus. I had a very long-term focus, and we both walked out winners of what we wanted. So it's crazy. Or Preston, they have bit different balance sheets. Like you might maybe put a million in call options like this, but the other side has maybe a billion or 10 billion to invest. And they cannot do that in coal options. That would be too risky. It's also a risk return game. So the 10 billion they have, but let's say one billion, they can put it easily in something that gives them a 20% risk-free

Starting point is 00:36:06 return, right? Because they don't have to have capital behind it. There's no risk. They can put that big chunk of money to work. But with smaller amounts, you can do the leverage, like buying the call option you just described. But maybe one more thing. And that's a bit of a mistake in the markets. And that's why you can see the markets are not mature yet as well. Normally, you would, as a professional investor, you wouldn't do directional bets with options.

Starting point is 00:36:32 So if you think the price goes up, you would buy futures, not options. Because options is a volatility trade, right? You sell options when the implied volatility is high when it spikes, when the fear is at the highest levels in the market. And then you, so you sell them at that point and you buy them back when the fear is gone and the normal market returns. And then you pocket the volatility difference. Volatility harvesting is the name of the game.

Starting point is 00:36:57 And that's what they do, the big players, the one with the $1 billion. He's going to write those options, to sell those call options. When the volatility spikes, when the fear is at the highest level, And then he buys him back a month later with normal prices. Yeah, and I think there's a lot of people doing directional bets right now with options, which is easy prey for professionally investors. Willie, you got any thoughts on some of the derivative stuff? I'd just like to see more of the sabotage going on,

Starting point is 00:37:28 because that's definitely going to make my funding of longs a lot cheaper. You can see how inefficient that market is. And I just gather like anyone who's in this space that really understands it, they want to go long. They don't want to be in US dollar basis. But certainly these traditional funds out there that want high yields, low risk, US dollar kind of basis, they really need to be in this game. I just think that by the time they understand it, like I do think that they want to be exposed to the long side of it rather than be the sort of market neutral arbitrage, yield. game. So, Willie, before you were talking about this like a price ceiling, you had mentioned that when the

Starting point is 00:38:13 price goes up and goes through this price ceiling, that you've seen historically that the price has struggled after doing something like that. I'm looking at a chart off of your Twitter. It's just titled Bitcoin price model. And you have this line that's that's way above where the price is typically at. And then you have some lines down there that are kind of representing a floor. Can you talk to us a little bit about this? And more importantly, I guess the thing that I'm really trying to get at is if you would see

Starting point is 00:38:42 this ceiling projection model still stay significantly above the price action, and let's say we're beyond this 70,000 block mark, would you view that as a sign to continue to stay in because the prices might be going higher? This is a mean reversion model, fancy words just saying that everything tends to its averages. But this one tracks the averages as it pertains to the very tops of the market. And it's, you know, it's hit every single top in the history of Bitcoin. And even in the early days, it doesn't quite because a lot of things don't hit in those early days. But it's only because we don't have the price of Bitcoin from the time that Satoshi started mining and New Liberty

Starting point is 00:39:28 standards, you know, first priced bitcoins via electricity. So I actually think, that model even works back then. I don't know why it works. Maybe it's because Bitcoin's like a machine. It's got a very mechanical price rhythm to it with the halvenings. The supply is reset. But yeah, I have a lot of faith in that model. It tends to work. It always has work, I should say. And, you know, right now when I'm looking at it, it's $102,000 and it tends to curve upwards. So we've still got a bit of room to move. You know, incidentally, in 2013, where it had those those two very big rallies, it hit that ceiling twice before it topped out. I'm seeing CVDD.

Starting point is 00:40:11 Explain what that is for folks, and this is the floor in the model, is titled CVDD. And does that also play into the top of the model as far as the ceiling? Yeah, two the very different models. The CVDD stands for coin value days destroyed. And I should just call it the bottom model. So it's based on one of the very first on-chain indicators, which is Bitcoin days destroyed. So we look at how much destruction there is per day. And that's just a fancy way of saying we look at the coins that are moving between investors over a window of a day.

Starting point is 00:40:50 And then we look at how old those coins have been latent in a wallet between moving from an old wallet to someone, a new investor's wallet. And so you kind of tally up the days that was those coins have been latent and those are the days that you've destroyed as those coins moved. And so it kind of works in this way where if you get like maybe it's Eric Voorhees or maybe it's Roger Ver these guys that bought Bitcoins from the early earliest times of Bitcoin and they bought at maybe a dollar, maybe at 50 cents. Now you've moved it to someone who's buying in at $35,000. essentially those guys are going to be wanting to hold their coins. They want to hold their coins at these higher values. And so the floor rises accordingly. So this is what this tracks.

Starting point is 00:41:45 As old coins move to new hands, the floor price moves up and of CVDD. And that model hits all the bottoms. You're not joking. I'm looking at the bottom that played out on the last four-year cycle. And I mean, it literally came and kissed that line. And that was it. It's amazing. Yeah, you find a lot of this in Bitcoin is that it's very robotic and mechanical,

Starting point is 00:42:09 and it's just mind-blowing how these models can put a wrapper around the price range and predict way ahead of time where the bottom may be. And what I like about this model is that it goes up, only goes up. It's very hard for it to go down. And so as the floor rises and rises and you're coming into a bear market, and you're in a bear market, you see this rising floor coming up at you as the price is dropping. So you kind of get a good signal there of how much further it may drop before the bear market is over. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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Starting point is 00:46:11 going to play a role moving forward? Because I think this is a really important piece. I want to hear your thoughts. Yeah, I think it's logical for central banks to introduce central bank digital currency. Quite frankly, it's not Bitcoin, right? Obviously. It's a a centrally controlled thing. They want to have control the central banks. They'll control the money supply. So it's not scarce like Bitcoin. It will be easier for central banks to do quantitative easing,

Starting point is 00:46:41 even more easy than it is today. And it will be especially more easy to get that money in the hands of the consumers, the people. Because right now they have to, they create money, right? The central banks, then they buy government bonds and then the governments have this money. and the money then has to go to the people through fiscal policy.

Starting point is 00:47:02 And that's where it stops a lot of times. So the central banks are actually frustrated, but governments not doing their part and doing fiscal policies. With the central bank digital currency, they can bypass governments altogether. So you just get a wallet and they put money in it and you can spend it in the supermarket. So no fiscal, no government needed. And also no banks needed, by the way, and no clearing.

Starting point is 00:47:26 and the whole industry, it's a major threat to the traditional banking industry. And it should be a top priority for the CEO of all the banks in the world, because they're going to be bypassed by their central banks very soon, because I think they will introduce it somewhere this year. And then another part is it is necessary for central banks to do this, because they have to go to negative interest rates. This will allow them to do that much faster, because you're locked in into the central bank digital currency system,

Starting point is 00:48:00 and they'll just say it disappears if you don't spend it in a year, or they put a negative interest rate on it, which is basically the same thing. So, yeah, I think it's a logical step for the central banks to do, but it's something completely different than Bitcoin, and it doesn't pose a threat to Bitcoin at all. If anything, it will make it easier for stimulus money to go to the public, and for the public to use that stimulus money to buy Bitcoin,

Starting point is 00:48:29 unless, of course, they prevent that, because that's all the other part of central bank digital currencies. They can put all sorts of restrictions on it. They can freeze at will. They can freeze your accounts. If you go to the wrong meetings or vote for the wrong people, they can just take your money and they will maybe not allow you to buy Bitcoin with it, which is even more reason to buy Bitcoin right now.

Starting point is 00:48:52 You're saying that, you know, this is the highest priority if you're a banker, it's a high threat to their business. Do you think that that's going to cause bankers to be allies of Bitcoin? Very interesting thought. I don't know. But it would be a smart move, actually, because it would be one of the few things that they could do in that kind of environment. They could do custodian services.

Starting point is 00:49:15 They could make it easier to buy and sell Bitcoin, and they could open up the derivatives markets, and indeed provide some kind of interest. So a bank could do what BlockFi. is doing, it could be in the middle of this complex derivatives game and give half of that profit as an interest to their customers, which would make a hell of a lot more sense for customers than keeping their money in central bank digital currencies with negative interest rates. Great idea.

Starting point is 00:49:43 What's your thoughts, Preston? So I think that when you look at the whole tether thing, or any stable coin for that matter, if it's not auditable and some type of regulatory body saying, hey, we'd conducted an audit, they were 100% backed to prove that there's no fractional reserve being generated behind the scenes for whatever stable coin is that the stable coin that might be put up as collateral could maybe the underlying piece of it, the protocol and the people that are managing that centralized token could be running a scam in the background. Does that have any type of long-term impact at Bitcoin? Absolutely not. It just has an impact to the people that might

Starting point is 00:50:25 be exposed to that through lending. And so with a central bank digital currency, you basically remove that risk because it's being issued by the government. But I think if I was going to push back on Plan B's thoughts on the programmability, I think that gets really hard. I think it's easy for us to say that all those things are possible, but I think doing it from an engineering standpoint would be a little harder than people realize or think. But that's just my two sense without having a lot of background or understanding of how that would actually take place. I just kind of suspect it's a harder engineering problem than maybe we perceive it to be. You know, I've been in Bitcoin since 2013, and like I know the first few years, probably

Starting point is 00:51:08 still true today. A lot of people have a resistance to buying Bitcoin because they see physical dollars in their hands and they go, this is what, just what, screen on my phone and they're not used to this idea of evaporating and selling this cash that they have in their hands and having it appear as digits on their phone. Obviously, they're sort of like Gen X upwards generation, which, you know, that's much of the wealth that's being held in those generations. And like if we move to a digital currency and that's mandated by central banks, I think that that you've just destroyed a lot of the resistance because everybody's on a digital dollar.

Starting point is 00:51:51 now. I think that's actually quite bullish for Bitcoin because it's the sheer mindset of going, oh, yeah, now I'm forced to be in digital and this is digital and so is Bitcoin. That's a great point. And I've heard the same thing. I think when people can't tangibly touch it or feel it or see it, it's just, it's very hard for them to wrap their heads around what it is. Yeah. So what's your guys' thoughts on the whole India news and what kind of implications as you think that has for other countries. Willie, as better view on that as me. I just see it as a China ban.

Starting point is 00:52:29 What used to be China bans, Bitcoin is now India bans Bitcoin. For me, it's all thought, but maybe that's too simplistic. Look, we've seen all of this happen. I've seen, I was a Russia ban it, Pakistan ban it. Countries go in an attempt to ban it, and then they backpedal. I just wonder how long it'll take for them to backpedal. You know, if you think of Bitcoin as the monetary network, the monetary internet, you might as well just ban the internet from your country and then, you know, see how well your country will thrive

Starting point is 00:53:00 without the efficiency of the internet and how well will your country survive without the monetary network of the future. So I don't see that's going to stop anything. And, you know, if you look at the history of bannings is that it just makes that asset even more praise. So people We tend to buy it more. I know the price was up on the day it was announced. Here you go. And usually when you ban something, when you make it illegal, then when you criminalize it, price goes up, right?

Starting point is 00:53:33 It's something in this. I should look into it. So I want to talk just overall macro market right now. Do you guys see a big liquidity crunch, credit crunch, like we saw in March, playing out again, maybe this year or the year after. And what are your thoughts on what that might mean for Bitcoin? Do you mean March this year was COVID, right? Yeah, the big downturn that we saw just a run for dollars back in March. I don't think we were going to see that again. I think the central banks are ramping up their printers and their stimulus and their quantitative easing. So liquidity,

Starting point is 00:54:09 I don't think that will be a really big issue. Solvency, however, defaults, and especially after COVID with all the companies in real trouble because their business is essentially gone, right? Are people going to fly again? I mean, you can stimulate Boeing as much as you like, but they're not going to fly again. And same with restaurants. You can help everybody through the winter, all the restaurants, but if people are not allowed to eat in restaurants, the business is gone. So there's a long-term, more solvency kind of problem lurking underneath.

Starting point is 00:54:41 And I think that will be a really, really big problem more than a liquidity problem. The COVID event was a one in 100 year pandemic. And I look at that as the whole world stopped, revisited their risk models, sold to cash, all the markets crash against cash, and then they redeployed. And I don't think we're going to have this, you know, where you talk is there going to be some sort of a black swan or something unexpected. And I think people are very much expecting what's coming out. And I do think, you know, the course of action right now is just print more money. So people are very heightened to a potential crunch, which means that it's more or less, you know, the risk models of planning for it if it's going to happen.

Starting point is 00:55:27 So it's usually when things happen that is beyond what we expected that you kind of see the sort of crash where everyone runs to the safety of the US dollar. So any kind of downward move, I think, is going to be met with more quantitative easing. So, yeah, it's just bullish for Bitcoin. This is the question I've really been waiting to ask. You can only take one chart with you to show somebody because you two have the best charts out of anybody on Twitter. What chart does Willie take and what chart does Plan B take? Willie, you go first. I get asked this all the time and I go, what is wrong with you?

Starting point is 00:56:10 It's like, you want me to pick one chart? Because the nature of this question is showing me this. thing that's going to work and will forever work. We'll all start off as traders or whatever. Show me the simple sine wave. Let me rephrase it. Which chart are you most proud of, Willie? Okay. Most proud of. I don't know. I mean, like... I would get asked this question, but phrased differently. Okay. The one that I have is a proprietary floor model that predicts the floor price of Bitcoin based on the capital flows coming in and it's very response, it's very accurate and it's not publicly available. Interesting. Boy, I want access.

Starting point is 00:56:51 Plan B. I would take the Stock to Flow X cross-asset chart with stock to flow on the X axis and market value and the Y-axis with all the markets plotted together. So gold and silver, real estate and the clusters of the Bitcoin prices, the last four Bitcoin price clusters. And what I like about the chart is that it, even without math, without a model at all, you can look at the data and you see this historical track, 12 years Bitcoin going one direction, and then at the end of that track lie the four other markets, silver, diamonds, gold and real estate, and you just know, you just sort of feel that this is not coincidence. And the bonus point, I think, what this chart really shows what gives me all the confidence in the world is that gold has a higher stock to flow

Starting point is 00:57:50 and a higher value, but real estate as well. So we don't have to extrapolate like all other models I know. We can just interpolate in a data range that we already have. So yeah, for me, that's the one I take with me. It's not the best chart to show at a newbie, someone who's new to Bitcoin though. So it's a chart I would take to my banker friends or investors that know risk return and Bitcoin history and all that. Can I jump in and ask this as like, do they ever come back and say, well, I don't expect they know, but like the stock to flow goes to infinite for Bitcoin. So what happens on that range when, you know, it's perfectly scarce?

Starting point is 00:58:33 How does that map to price? Yeah, they keep asking that. That's the most quickly quies. Oh, good. But frankly, I don't care. I'm focused on, it's like a weather forecast. I'm not interested in the weather over 10 years. I'm interested in the weather tomorrow or maybe next week.

Starting point is 00:58:52 And right now, I'm interested in the Bitcoin price the next four years when I expected the market to go to $5 trillion. And then after that, I'm really, really interested in the next phase that we can interpolate when we go after real estate, when we go to $100 trillion, US dollar. Oh, I like that name, market. And after that, I don't know, the whole world changes. We probably count everything in Bitcoin.

Starting point is 00:59:18 It's exactly it, right? It's like if it actually does go to infinite, right? Because you lose the unit of account in US dollars because it's the new money. The question would be akin to, let's say that you didn't have all the countries in the world, but you only had one country, one country. And there was one currency for that country. What would be the value of that currency? You arrive at the same situation, right?

Starting point is 00:59:43 Yeah. You'd have to value it in horses and houses and that's the only way you could value. GDP, yeah, goods and services. Yeah. Exactly. It's kind of funny that the global debt market is 100 trillion euros, dollars, the global equity market is 100 trillion euros, dollars. Global real estate market is 100 trillion euros.

Starting point is 01:00:01 That number comes up too much. I've been thinking about this is like this whole thing about a unit of account, this dollar thing, you know, Like, how big is GDP? Well, GDP should be the unit of account. Like, how much money do we need to print so that the amount of units of trade matches roughly GDP? So, we think, flows. And in Bitcoin, we don't do that, right?

Starting point is 01:00:24 We've got 21 million bitcoins and we just keep dividing it smaller and smaller. So, like, if, you know, I kind of think sometimes Satoshi, if he had just invented Bitcoin with a unit of a total unit of all coins in circulation is one bit. We'd get over this whole idea of I can't afford a Bitcoin because you're having how much of the slice of pie of Bitcoin do I get? And if it became the entire monetary base, then that one Bitcoin, the only amount of coins in circulation that one Bitcoin would roughly equate to GDP. And so you get away with this idea of your account.

Starting point is 01:01:03 You just talk about slices of your GDP. And at least people would start to think about the economy in that turn. without being sort of, you know, led astray by this unit of one US dollar. I never thought of it. That is a, yeah, that's a really cool idea. I love that. And Robert Breed love loved it too. Hey, guys, what's your thoughts on Lightning?

Starting point is 01:01:24 Very interesting, of course, with the stuff that Jack Ballars now is doing a strike. Lightning and the other second layers on Bitcoin are food for the next phase, right? This will bring the transaction part to this store value thing that Bitcoin is right now. and it will make very cheap, fast transactions possible. And I think it's the next thing. And it's big. Actually, if you think about it, you need Bitcoins to be part of this transaction network. So not having Bitcoin is a real disadvantage.

Starting point is 01:01:55 I could envision a world where you can have a credit card once you deposit the Bitcoin as a collateral. And then you can buy at the supermarkets. And if you don't have Bitcoin, you don't get the credit card. You can out buy at the supermarkets or buy. certain cars or travel. So it becomes sort of you have to have Bitcoin. Otherwise, you can't be part of the economy. And it's very akin to like 100 years ago, you had to have land, right? If you don't have land, then you have nothing. You can put yourself to work, but you would never earn the money, never enough money to make a good living. You need land. And that, of course, was Thomas

Starting point is 01:02:30 Piccetee. His book, The Capital Book, was the big socialist movement against it. But if you don't have land, you were nothing. We might have a new world where if you don't have Bitcoin, you cannot be part of the Lightning network, you cannot have a credit card, you cannot earn an interest because you will be at the mercy of the central bank digital currencies with a negative interest rate. So yeah, you better get some. That's how I envision the end game. You know, if you look at Bitcoin from an engineering standpoint, it's not really ever going

Starting point is 01:03:03 to scale if everyone's using the main chain. And so we kind of need a way to get the throughput of transactions to carry global commerce. And there's really no other technology that I've seen. You know, you've got side chains, but that's kind of centralized. You need federations. You're trusted parties, essentially, to make that work. And so lightning's the best shot I've seen so far. And, you know, it's still in its early stages.

Starting point is 01:03:34 but the performance on this stuff is just so great. And I was thinking, you know, here's one implementation, which is Jack Moller's strike startup, and that they convert whatever currency you're sending. Maybe it's US dollars, and I'm sending euros over to plan B. It converts to Bitcoin, and it zaps along the lightning within milliseconds,

Starting point is 01:03:57 and it does a 4X transaction to euro. And the whole thing's instant, right? And it occurs to me this is like, strike could have used MongoDB because both sides of that transaction is strike, converting the 4x back to customers on their strike apps. And so they chose to use Lightning Network as a proof of concept of how this works. What would make it really interesting is it's not strike on both ends and it zapped across and it was another company, another bank, another payment provider that came in and it converted back to euros for Plan B. And then you've got interoperability between essentially users that are built on the Bitcoin

Starting point is 01:04:43 network, the Lightning Network, and it's not just this monolithic one app. And that decentralizes this normally we see as one payment provider, like whether it's a transfer wise or any number of their competitors. And so I find that very exciting. It's almost like a DNA of Bitcoin. Whatever it touches, it decentralizes. And so, yeah, I think it's very exciting. It's incredibly exciting right now.

Starting point is 01:05:09 This is the first time that you two have had a chance to talk. Do you have any questions for each other? Yeah, I've already asked it, which is a banker question, which was what happens when stock to flow turns perfect? You know, it's a perfect scarcity. I guess maybe my question is I see a lot of interesting charts that are coming out. But they're not the well-known stock-to-flow models, but I think I just saw recently, you know, looked like some sort of heat map of the blockchain and blocks.

Starting point is 01:05:38 And are you building models right now from it? Or is this like a sheer research process you're going through right now? What are the goals of this research? Yeah. That chart is the entire UTXO set of Bitcoin and I track it from block to block. So I have 600,000 of those charts. and it's about 100 million data points. So it's really a lot of data.

Starting point is 01:06:04 And what I do is it's input. It's food for my models, actually. So those are the X-ray pictures that I'm looking for patterns. And in a way, actually, that you do them as well. So I look for coin movements. What are the old coins doing? What are the new coins doing? What are the bigger amounts doing and the lower UTXOs doing?

Starting point is 01:06:24 And who are they coming from? Are they coming from exchanges? Are they coming from miners? You can, of course, also track the Sotoshi Dice coins or all kinds of known addresses you can track. And yeah, so I track basically the changes, the deltas, between a day or a week or a month in the UTXO set. And there's all sorts of markers that you find. And the goal is to, and I think that was 50% of the people answering Preston's question, what should I ask, Willie and Plan B, what was about, oh, well,

Starting point is 01:06:58 When do we sell and where is the all-time high? How do we play the top? Well, this is basically aimed at that. How can I recognize the next top and the bottom, of course? And, well, like I said before, give me one month or a week of blocks. No price data, no options data, nothing else. Only a week of blocks. And I can tell you if we're in the bear market or bull market or at the top, actually.

Starting point is 01:07:22 It's astonishing how accurate it is. So I'm testing it in real life now. Because of course, it's all the history. But I have been trading these models the last couple of months. And I have to say, wow. It's been nice. Those are the words. But yeah.

Starting point is 01:07:42 And really, I'd like to ask you, because I'm building all this stuff myself. I have this note. I'm a programmer, but I brushed off my Python skills. And so I'm extracting all the data from my little note. and then plotting them and doing the analysis. But I'm doing that all myself, also because I don't trust maybe other data. But I saw you use Glass Node or there's a lot of people who already done this. You know, I wish that I had the patience to sit down and put a node on the network

Starting point is 01:08:14 and sort of brush up my skills on command lines and then, you know, work from that level upwards. And, you know, I've played a little bit with it with a help of friend. And gosh, the amount of data. you have to move just to index that stuff is ridiculous. Anyway, like, I've found that My Sweet Spot is really just working with data providers. I know that I're probably losing, I'm most certainly losing, the same sorts of levels of detail that you'll be getting, because obviously when you work with this data,

Starting point is 01:08:45 you see a lot of things you don't, at the sort of the level I'm working in. I'm not going deep down inside the box. And those being so close to the ground, there's always stuff that comes up that I'll be isolated from. But yeah, I've been working with coin metrics and now GlassNode. So I use a lot of the data that's already pre-indexed and pre-processed. And GlassNode have, I think the team's about 15 people now. So engineers, data scientists, a whole bunch of work in SMATs has put under the hood there

Starting point is 01:09:19 that I get the privilege of just getting the very high-quality feeds. For example, if we want to look at the flows coming into and out of exchanges, that's a full-time job, just indexing, tagging, and keeping on track of these exchanges just move to a new wallet. Okay, we've got to label the new wallet, and that wasn't a flow out of the exchanges. That stuff's manual work. And it's just teams now to do this because the complexity of the ecosystem

Starting point is 01:09:46 so well-developed now that I couldn't ever possibly work at any kind of pace trying to keep track of all of it. And so, you know, I'm getting feeds from stable coins, some other networks and not only Bitcoin, Ethereum, so I can track flows from one to the other. And so all that kind of stuff, I can get much more of a better high-level picture. And obviously the models I do can work off more networks, more data, more processed. And it's, you know, I guess it's more classical rather than finite element, you might say in the engineering world. So, you know, it's the way that I've approached it, probably because I wasn't, you know, a diehard coda from the early days. And it's led to different results.

Starting point is 01:10:33 And certainly the way that I picked up, so I'm going to be quite different from reading you TXO sets. Excellent. Well, I think that's the right decision. If you ever need something that providers can't provide, gave me a ring. We might benefit from teaming up. Yeah, that would be great. Hey, Plain B. Are you seeing your top here?

Starting point is 01:10:53 Yeah, well, like that. Yeah. Well, that's always my fear, right? I know that the time when Murat had his fund and he used the data from blockchain fund info, I guess. And there was a data error with, okay, a number of addresses and, but then the second way that addresses were not in the account. And I'm always. Oh, yes, yes, yes.

Starting point is 01:11:15 That is not in the data or that there's a data error. I know. This is like, I remember we were going well into the BSEs. remember when we were like in 20 was at 2018 and we were trapped at 6,000 and the bottom was in by a lot of people and then we crashed right I was really sure you know the data said we just did not have enough investor volume coming into this and they crashed at the low 3,000s and the data still said the bottom's not in and then I remember we're just scratching ahead all of our on chain indicators were saying the bottom's in if you don't use volume but if you do

Starting point is 01:11:51 use volume, on chain volume, the book will far from the bottom and it's going to go down even further from the 3000 band. Then Nick Carter came along and said, oh, Coin Metrics, we've got this new estimate of volume. He sent that data through. And yeah, that was

Starting point is 01:12:07 that. We were using blockchain. info, who were the first providers of Unchain Data. And the new data came in. It was exactly that. The transactions that were of the newer versions, the Segwit, the different types of, I'm not up to speed with the later stuff, but at least the Segwit transactions weren't being picked up is what we thought. And it was giving lower than normal

Starting point is 01:12:31 volume between investors. And so there's always a worry, but now we've got so many data providers you can sort of cross-reference to. I kind of spent a rainy day in Bali trying to figure out what the on-chain volume is without using their data and using other indicators. And that was kind of the aha moment as well. Yeah. Yeah. Well, if you ever have a question or want to double check something, let's do it because those are painful mistakes. If you have real money on the line, I'm constantly afraid. Let's do they. And don't forget about your friend Preston. Of course. All right, guys. I know we're over the time that we had allotted and man, I appreciate your time coming together like this. I would love to do this again in the future if you

Starting point is 01:13:18 guys are willing. This was just awesome. Thanks for having us. Yeah, thanks for having us. It's been real fun. So guys, give a handoff to the audience where they can learn more about you. Yeah, so I'm at Plan B at $100 trillion, USD, that is, at Twitter. And actually, everything is on there. I noticed a lot of new followers, 50,000 new followers last month. I think, really you had even more, but lots of new followers. And make sure you read the art. articles as well. There's like two or three articles that I wrote and 80% of all the questions is answered in those articles. So on Twitter, I'm on Woonomic. So you can follow me there. You can keep looking at my profile and Plan B's for that matter because that will track the amount

Starting point is 01:14:05 of new investors coming into the space. So I write a newsletter at willy woo.substack.com. You can see it all on my profile on Twitter. So I do market forecasts based on on chain data. that you can subscribe to. And also I have a whole bunch of live chats on chats. Dot Wooball.com. So a lot of stuff we've been talking about. Those chats are up there for you to have a look at. Guys, thanks so much for making time.

Starting point is 01:14:32 This was awesome. Hey, so thanks for everybody listening to the show. If you enjoyed the conversation, be sure to subscribe to the show on whatever podcast app you're using. We really appreciate that. And if you have time, leave us a review. So thanks for joining us this week. And we'll catch you next Wednesday.

Starting point is 01:14:47 Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to subscribe to millennial investing by the Investors Podcast Network and learn how to achieve financial independence. To access our show notes, transcripts or courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only, before making any decision consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting. Thank you.

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